The 2015 Vuelta a España will get underway with one of the whackiest stages in race history thanks to an absurd course design and a last-minute UCI decision.
An opening team time trial of just 7.4 pancake-flat kilometers is odd enough, too short to really have any GC impact whatsoever, but the route includes a few unique challenges. Running along the vacationer-friendly Mediterranean coast from Puerto Banús to Marbella, the course involves stretches of packed dirt and sand and a narrow wooden bridge. Those peculiar obstacles caused plenty of consternation to riders putting in some course recon this week, spurring the UCI to call a meeting that ultimately deemed the TTT parcours too dangerous to count towards the General Classifiation. And so, just one day before the start of the Vuelta, the decision has been made to neutralize the opening stage in terms of the GC, leaving only a stage win and position in the team classification up for grabs.
Obviously, that dramatically changes the prediction picture, as any teams with GC aspirations now have little motivation to take any risks on the absurd course. A few of the top overall contenders lead strong TTT squads, but it’s hard to see them putting in the effort to contend for a stage win on the sand.
Instead, this should come down to the teams without GC candidates on the roster. Trek Factory Racing is among the front-runners. Fabian Cancellara leads a squad packed with fast finishers, and over a course of just 7.4km, sprinter speed will come in handy. Without a top GC favorite to shepherd over the whacky parcours, Trek will be hard to beat.
Giant-Alpecin should thrive for the same reasons as Trek—time trialing star Tom Dumoulin will lead the squad, with high-octane John Degenkolb and Luka Mezgec providing firepower over the very short course.
Orica-GreenEdge may have a shot, with a few time trialing specialists and a few fast finishers making the start. OGE always outperforms the sum of its parts in team time trials, and the team has nothing to lose in this race.
Etixx-QuickStep doesn’t have many of its top talents against the clock making the start, but Niki Terpstra leads a team that does include a few decent TT men and no reason to take the course gingerly.
Tinkoff-Saxo has a collection of speedsters and big engines to put up a good ride if Rafal Majka’s GC aspirations don’t hold them back. Sky has the firepower to put in a challenge for the TTT victory, but it seems almost guaranteed that the British squad will ride this one without much urgency as Chris Froome is a contender for the overall Vuelta a España victory. The same goes for BMC and Movistar, who might otherwise have contended for the stage, but who will now likely keep the powder dry for a day with real GC implications.
VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites
1. Trek Factory Racing | 2. Giant-Alpecin | 3. Orica-GreenEdge
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for 2015 Vuelta analysis. The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 1. And if you haven’t already checked out the Recon Ride’s first of three Vuelta episodes, there’s no time like the present to start listening!
The youngest of the trio of legendary three-week races, the Vuelta a España tends to garner less attention than the Giro d’Italia or the Tour de France, but the past few editions of Spain’s biggest race have been must-watch cycling entertainment. The challenging route, the top-notch startlist, and the desperation for results always present at this part of the season should make for an epic final grand tour of 2015 (the perfect storm of factors likely contributing a thrilling Vuelta is just one of many topics covered in the Recon Ride’s Vuelta pre-race show by the way—you should definitely check it out).
The Route
This year’s Vuelta offers the variety of profiles to favor a well-rounded winner. After things open with a very short team time trial (short enough that it’s unlikely to make a difference for the GC battle), the race takes on an uphill finish (albeit only a Cat. 3) right away in Stage 2, which is a great way to set the tone for a challenging race.
Then come several days that look likely to favor the sprinters or puncheurs, until a likely GC showdown on Stage 7, which sees the first Cat. 1 finishing climb of the race. After a medium-difficulty day on Stage 8, the Vuelta will throw another Cat. 1 uphill finish at the pack on Stage 9. Then, it’s a stagehunter friendly Stage 10 and a long-awaited rest day after a whopping ten straight days of racing.
Any dreams of a stress-free return to racing after the day off will be squashed by the brutal Stage 11, which will throw one steep climb after another at the riders
Stage 11: Andorra la Vella › Cortals d´Encamp (138km) – The peloton will come back from the first rest day of the Vuelta to face a tough day in Andorra.
After such a difficult Stage 11, pair of more fast-finisher-friendly stages will give the GC men a chance to relax a bit, but climb-heavy Stages 14, 15, and especially 16 will bring them to the fore again.
The Stage 17 time trial will also be a critical day for the GC hopefuls.
Stage 17: Burgos › Burgos (38.7km) – A time trial favoring the big engines in the Vuelta’s final week will put the pure climbers under pressure.
A little under 40km and mostly flat, the ITT could deal a serious blow the GC campaign of anyone without strong time trialing ability.
Stages 18 and 19 look good for those with an aggressive streak who are not afraid to be active on the late climbs, before a Stage 20 that consists of four Cat. 1 ascents.
To close out the race, the sprinters will get one last chance on the final stage in and around Madrid.
The General Classification Contenders
Most of cycling’s top Grand Tour GC stars are making the Vuelta start this year, which should set up a thriller of an overall battle. Chris Froome, the 2015 yellow jersey winner himself, headlines the startlist. It’s pretty rare for a Tour winner to start the Vuelta, but Froome has come close here in the past and has some unfinished business to take care of.
It’s hard to say just how well the route suits him because the Chris Froome of 2015 is a different rider from the Chris Froome that won the 2013 Tour de France. That previous incarnation of Froome was an excellent time trialist who could take advantage of a long flat ITT against less chrono-savvy rivals. The Froome of the past two years, however, has been far less impressive against the clock. If Froome can get his time trial back on track, he could run away with this race. If he doesn’t, this will be a close fight, though Froome is still among the world’s very best climbers (something that often gets overlooked or underplayed by many observers) and can still win this race on pure climbing ability and a powerful team. Geraint Thomas and Nicolas Roche are back at Froome’s side. Sergio Henao could be the real star—he’s been prepping for this all season and he’s been sharp recently. He makes a fine alternative if Froome decides a few days into the Vuelta that he’s content with his Tour de France win and doesn’t need to fight for a second Grand Tour in 2015.
Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde were unable to wrest control of the Tour de France from Sky but they’ll have another opportunity here. The time trial won’t help the Movistar pair, but motivation to beat Froome will be pretty high, and a route filled with steep climbs will offer plenty of chances to launch a flurry of attacks to keep the pressure on. Quintana is the better overall rider at this point and if his motivation is there he could challenge for the win with help from Valverde. If Quintana isn’t coming in at 100%, Valverde will likely be in the mix on his own, though winning the Vuelta against this caliber of rivals would be a tall order. Andrey Amador is another card to play on a strong Movistar squad.
In terms of depth, Astana’s trio of Fabio Aru, Mikel Landa, and VincenzoNibali headline the strongest GC squad in recent memory. Aru is probably the team’s best hope, having been preparing for this race since his runner-up performance in the Giro. He’ll love all the opportunities to break clear of his rivals on the tough climbs of the race, and he’ll probably be a bit fresher with more of a time cushion since his last Grand Tour appearance than those who raced the Tour. Meanwhile, Nibali will be motivated to prove something in this race after a disappointing Tour de France. He’s not afraid to get aggressive and if he is in better shape for this race, he’ll be up there. Landa is the wildcard—he has said he is targeting stages, and a long flat time trial does not suit him in the slightest, but he showed flashes of incredible climbing ability in the Giro and Astana’s multifaceted approach could see him steal a huge chunk of time if he can launch an unanswered move somewhere along the way. It would be pretty surprising if Astana didn’t land at least one rider on the Vuelta podium.
Joaquim Rodríguez will have his work cut out for him taking on such a list of stars in this Vuelta, but he did not have to expend nearly as much energy in the Tour as his other Vuelta GC rivals—his stagehunting focus allowed him to take days off in the mountains. Daniel Moreno will serve as a valuable second.
Rafal Majka leads the Tinkoff-Saxo charge. He should put in a good Vuelta campaign—he has developed into a well-rounded rider who isn’t afraid of a time trial, and like Rodríguez he should be a bit fresher than Froome or Quintana.
Speaking of freshness, Domenico Pozzovivo probably stands the best chance of being the rider to keep one recent Vuelta streak alive: since 2011, the winner of the Vuelta a España has been a rider who did not complete either the Tour of the Giro earlier in the season. Freshness has been critical in recent years at the Vuelta, and Pozzovivo, who crashed out of the Giro early, has not put the same sort of wear and tear into his legs this season as many other ridres in this race. He’s also a specialist on the steep stuff, which the Vuelta has in spades. Expect a strong ride from Pozzovivo here.
BMC’s Tejay van Garderen will find himself in the same boat, hoping to benefit from the freshness of not having finished a Grand Tour yet this season, but it’s hard to say how he’ll fair. On the one hand, the Vuelta suits him more than the Tour did thanks to its long and flat time trial, where he is stronger than most of the top GC riders in this race. On the other hand, van Garderen’s Vuelta was a last minute decision to salvage something from the season after his disappointing Tour. If van Garderen is in shape and motivated, I’d expect to see him in the thick of the GC battle. If not, he’ll probably be out of it very quickly. Samuel Sánchez is a fine alternative for BMC, having put up plenty of strong Vuelta rides in the past.
Lotto-Soudal’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck has managed to put up several excellent time trial performances so far this season, and if he can bring that balanced approach into the Vuelta, he could prove to be a big surprise. Cannondale-Garmin’s duo of Andrew Talansky and Dan Martin should be capable of producing at least one contender for the Top 10 among them. Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro hasn’t done much this season but he tends to come alive in the Vuelta. Pierre Rolland rode a respectable Tour de France, nearly coming away with a stage win, and should be capable of another decent result here.
The Stagehunters
Without many pan-flat stages but plenty of days to suit the more versatile fast finishers, it’s no surprise that the Vuelta has drawn several riders who thrive in bunch kicks after harder days. Peter Sagan is an obvious member of that club, though his Vuelta form is a big question mark—last year he rode the Vuelta purely to prep for Worlds, and mostly stayed under the radar. John Degenkolb also makes the start, hopefully with the same interest he showed last year (when he won four stages and the Points Classification) and not an approach entirely centered on his own Worlds campaign. Nacer Bouhanni can handle a climb or two and should be able to nab multiple wins if the form is there for this race—the motivation should certainly be there near the end of a disappointing season. Caleb Ewan, JJ Rojas, Matteo Pelucchi, and Danny Van Poppel are other speedsters to keep an eye on at the Vuelta.
Tom Dumoulin and Fabian Cancellara are obvious favorites for the long, flat time trial in the third week. Simon Gerrans, Alessandro De Marchi, Sylvain Chavanel, Carlos Barbero and Pello Bilbao will be among the riders hoping to do some damage on the intermediate stages, while the likes of Fabio Duarte, Amets Txurruka, and Joe Dombrowski could be on the hunt for breakaway wins in the high mountains.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites
GC Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Fabio Aru, Nairo Quintana Other Top Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodríguez, Vincenzo Nibali, Domenico Pozzovivo, Mikel Landa, Tejay van Garderen, Rafal Majka
VeloHuman will be previewing every individual stage of the race, so stay tuned for more analysis. Meanwhile, if you haven’t already checked out the Recon Ride’s first of three Vuelta episodes, there’s no time like the present to start listening! And, of course, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary.
Episode 23: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part I The Recon Ride dives into the challenging parcours and the excellent startlist of the 2015 Vuelta a España.
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The final Grand Tour of 2015 is about to get underway, and the collection of talents preparing to make the start in Spain is impressive. Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm and Dane Cash of VeloHuman team up to present the first of three Recon Ride Vuelta episodes.
Chris Froome may have effectively sealed his 2015 Tour de France win, but the race reaches its official conclusion in Paris on Stage 21. Only 109.5km in total, the pack starts in Sèvres and then rides about 40km into Paris, where they begin ten laps of an urban circuit, finishing on the Champs-Élysées. The first third or so of the stage is essentially a procession to celebrate the race and Froome’s all-but-sewn-up overall victory. Once the peloton enters the Paris, riders will start to attempt to break clear of the pack for one last shot at glory in the world’s biggest bike race, and then the sprint teams will gradually wind up the pace. Things get very fast in the final few laps.
The final kilometer of the circuit has a large s-curve that veers left and then right again with around 500 meters to go, but after that it’s a straight run to the line where we can expect a high-speed sprint finale.
With a bit of rain in the forecast for the afternoon, there is a slight chance of wet roads at the finish.
Though the Tour’s final stage always starts out with relative calm, the stage victory in Paris is the most valuable stage win in the sport for the sprinters. There will be plenty of attempts to get clear on the urban roads, but don’t expect any attackers to get too much room. The Champs-Élysées is all about the quick men and a big bunch kick.
On results, one sprinter has been head and shoulders above crowd in this Tour: André Greipel. In a mass sprint, Mark Cavendish, the only rider who has beaten Greipel in a previous bunch kick in the 2015 Tour, looks to be the only one with a real chance of taking him on again on Stage 21.
Greipel definitely has the edge on win record so far in the 2015 Tour—Greipel has a three-to-one win advantage in that department. He’s been on terrific form so far in this race. However, both of Greipel’s first two stage wins came against a poorly-led-out Mark Cavendish, and Greipel’s third win was against a field that did not include Cavendish, who had been dropped from the pack much earlier in the day. Prior to this Tour, the younger Cav has typically had the better of Greipel. In short, there are reasons to like Cavendish’s chances despite his relative lack of success so far.
Both riders are without their main leadout men going into Stage 21, with Lotto-Soudal’s Greg Henderson and Etixx-QuickStep’s Mark Renshaw both having abandoned the race. I see this as almost a dead heat, but based on peak ability and past performances on the Champs-Élysées, I give a very, very slight edge to Mark Cavendish, who has won on this stage plenty of times before.
Behind the two top-tier sprinters in this Tour are plenty of hopeful quick men hoping to steal the day—but it’s hard to like anyone’s chances in this high-speed finale other than the two fastest riders in the race. Peter Sagan has come close in the bunch sprints, in the Top 4 of each of the race’s four bunch kicks so far with two close runner-up rides among those results. For all the talk you’ll hear from observers about him “not being a pure sprinter,” Sagan has an impressive turn of speed and can never be counted out, especially after a few days in the mountains that might have softened the legs of his rivals.
The same is true of John Degeknolb, who ran 2nd behind Greipel on Stage 15. He’s gotten better as the race has gone on, and, as he’s among the toughest sprinters in the peloton, he will probably be less depleted from the Tour’s visit to the Alps than most. Alexander Kristoff has not been as strong in this Tour as he was last year, but he came close to a Champs-Élysées win behind Marcel Kittel in last year’s Tour and also has endurance in spades.
Arnaud Démare, Bryan Coquard, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who will have a chance at success in the bunch gallop that will likely close out the 2015 Tour de France.
VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan
As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2015 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of the Tour, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the VeloHuman Facebook page.
While the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still previews and podcasts to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for big races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2015. The race preview and the pre-race podcast for the always exciting Clásica de San Sebastián are only a few days away!
Stage 20 is the Tour’s final mountain stage, and the only stage in the race to feature two HC-rated climbs. Those two uphill tests are the only categorized climbs on the day, but they’re plenty challenging by themselves.
It’s a very short stage at just 110.5 kilometers, so expect a high pace all day. After a downhill run of 25km from the start the road angles upward in the form of the now-familiar Col de la Croix de Fer, though this time they approach the summit a different way.
The peloton may have gained some familiarity with the Col de la Croix de Fer after Stage 19, but that won’t offer much comfort during the 29km ride to the top.
The trip upward will span 29km at 5.2%, with a few steeper sections early on and then near the top.
After the riders crest the climb, they’ll head downhill for about 30 kilometers into a short stretch of flat road, which leads into the foot of the final mountain climb of the 2015 Tour de France: Alpe d’Huez.
The legendary Alpine test is 13.8km in length with an 8.1% average gradient. It is at its steepest at the beginning of the climb and then with around 3 kilometers to go. Things even out a bit near the top for a final kilometer at just over 5%.
The Alpe d’Huez is the final opportunity for the climbers to leave their mark on the 2015 Tour de France.
The profile isn’t a terrible one for the early breakaway, and if a strong group gets up the road they will have a chance, but most of the big favorites from afar have spent a lot of time in the breakaways in the past two stages, and that could leave them low on fuel. The GC men, especially if they wind it up early to put pressure on each other, have a good chance of fighting it out for the final mountain stage in the Tour.
Nairo Quintana put some time into Chris Froome on Stage 19 and will look to do so again on Stage 20. For Froome, the goal is simply to not lose 2 and a half minutes on the stage. Froome didn’t look totally cooked on Stage 19 and was probably playing things conservatively, limiting the damage reasonably well—but the young Colombian is nevertheless closer to yellow than he was before. That could have Froome planning to take Stage 20 as safely as possible.
If he decides to attack Quintana, Froome’s an obvious danger for stage win, but with the Tour de France on the line, that seems like a risky proposition. What’s more, Quintana, benefiting a great deal from having Alejandro Valverde as a foil, might just be stronger now anyway. If this does come down to the GC favorites, it’s hard to see anyone challenging Quintana for Stage 20.
Alberto Contador will likely give it a shot. He’s way too far down on Froome to be a threat, but the podium is not completely out of reach, and a stage win would be something of a consolation prize for Contador, whose Tour has fallen very short of his expectations. He’s not strong enough to beat Froome and Quintana head-to-head but there’s a chance he’s given enough of space that that won’t matter too much.
Stage 19 winner Vincenzo Nibali could obviously have aspirations of breaking clear of the GC group once again, and he’s certainly looked stronger in the past few days than he did at the start of the race. But he’s not likely to get nearly as much breathing room as before now that he’s in contention for the podium, and he’s bound to pay somewhat for his efforts on Stage 19.
Robert Gesink sits nearly 9 minutes behind Froome on GC, and he has nearly 4 minutes of cushion to the next rider on the leaderboard. If he feels strong on the final climb, don’t be surprised if he tries to leave the GC men behind to go in pursuit of a stage win. Even if his bid fails spectacularly, he’s got plenty of time to lose to drop even one spot inside the Top 10.
Romain Bardet has enjoyed two great stages in a row, with a win on Stage 18 and a top 5 placing (and plenty of KOM points racked up) on Stage 19. He’s certainly strong right now, and he’s far enough behind on GC that he’ll be given some space if he wants to go for a long one. It’s hard to predict how he’ll play the stage—in his quest for the KOM title, the points on the Croix de Fer won’t actually be all that important if Froome ends up placing highly on the final climb. Bardet can’t afford to wear himself down too much and not be in contention for a decent placing at the finish. As such, his strategic decisions should be more focused simply on whether he thinks he has a better chance at a high stage placing (and the accompanying KOM points) from the pack, or in the break. Sticking with the peloton until the final ascent and then launching a move could be the best tactic. In any case, after two days of exhausting himself, Bardet is likely to be bringing a bit of fatigue into Stage 20, so it will be a big challenge for him to take a victory, especially with stronger GC favorites and fresher potential breakaway candidates having their eyes on the same prize.
Joaquim Rodríguez is in a similar boat, but he has not looked the best in the past two stages. The veteran racer could still recover, however, and unlike Bardet he conserved energy after the breakaway was reeled in on Stage 19, so don’t be surprised if he gives a long-range attack another go on Stage 20.
Pierre Rolland has plenty of form in this Tour de France but two days in a row of exhausting solo efforts won’t have left him with much energy to try for another on Stage 20. Then again, everyone will likely be tired and Rolland isn’t a threat to the overall, so he may find success if he saves energy by riding in the pack until the final climb, and then goes for a long one on the early slopes.
Thibaut Pinot stayed with the GC men for the entirety of Stage 20, which, first, suggests that he is feeling strong right now, and second, will likely leave him a bit fresher than Bardet, Rodríguez, and a number of other likely breakaway contenders. That could serve him well for a long-range move, though he hasn’t quite had the strength to turn in a victory so far.
Jakob Fuglsang was one of the few big-name potential breakaway favorites to completely save his energy on Stage 19, dropping out of the GC group early, and he’s looked strong enough in this Tour that he may have a chance with a long one on Stage 20. The question for Fuglsang will be whether he gives it a shot at all. Now that Nibali is fighting for the podium, Astana may call for all hands on deck in support of the Italian GC contender, which could leave Fuglsang playing domestique. If he goes on the attack, he’s a dangerous rider.
Rigoberto Urán, Rafal Majka, Ryder Hesjedal, Andrew Talansky, Cyril Gautier, Adam Yates, Serge Pauwels, Samuel Sánchez, Warren Barguil, Mathias Frank, and Rafael Valls are other names to watch for a long-range strike on Stage 20.
VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the final stage of the 2015 Tour after the conclusion of Stage 20.
Stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne › La Toussuire – 138km
The Tour de France is now halfway through its Alpine stretch and the climbs aren’t getting any easier on Stage 19.
Just like Stage 18, Stage 19 kicks off with climbing right from the gun. The Cat. 1 Col de Chaussy is 15.4km long at 6.3%, quite a challenge to take on in the first hour of the day. From the top it’s a long descent into a long flat section of a little over 25km, which ends at the foot of the massive Col de la Croix de Fer.
Anyone who struggles to make it up the brutally long Col de la Croix de Fer will be in for a tough day—it’s still over 50km from the top to the finish line, with two hard climbs along the way.
22.4km at 6.9%, the Croix de Fer is a huge challenge to overcome, with a particularly steep midsection that jumps into double digits for a little while.
After the summit comes a descent into the short, Cat. 2 Col du Mollard (5.7km at 6.8%). From there it’s a a long downhill that runs right into the foot of the La Toussuire climb, the final ascent of the day. 18km at 6.1%, it’s pretty challenging as Cat. 1 climbs go. The steepest part as at the very beginning, with things easing off slightly near the finish line.
Despite the hard climbs on the profile, Stage 19 is actually quite short, so expect a day of high-speed racing.
Breakaways have enjoyed their own opportunities to fight for stage victories two days in a row now, and the Stage 19 profile is another that will look appealing to the aggressive types, with the hardest climb of the day so far from the finish and plenty of testy descending in between its summit and the finish. On the other hand, the long final climb will require the breakaway riders to have a hefty advantage to stay clear, and this is the penultimate opportunity for the GC men to try to make something happen on the overall leaderboard, which could spur some into action. Even if Movistar isn’t going to be all that aggressive, we’ve seen the fringe GC contenders getting active in the mountains, which has the domino effect of spurring the outside GC contenders to go on the chase, with the top GC contenders then getting into gear to follow.
What’s more, the Stage 18 breakaway included almost all of the top potential Alpine breakaway contenders, which might leave many of them a bit tired. This will be another big day for the KOM contenders, which could inspire some of those who were on the move on Stage 18 to take up the march again on Stage 19, but it’s hard to say who will be that interested in putting themselves through the hell of a real stage victory bid in the breakaway once again.
If a strong group of top-notch climbers gets clear, they’ll have a chance at winning this from afar, but otherwise, the GC men could have their day on Stage 19.
Nairo Quintana has not been able to drop Chris Froome so far in this Tour de France, but with the dangerous 1-2 punch of Alejandro Valverde, he has the chance to put some serious pressure on the race leader in the Alps. It likely won’t make a difference on the GC unless Froome crashes or gets sick (which could happen), but a nabbing a stage while he’s hunting for seconds on the overall leaderboard seems like a real possibility. In 2013, Froome allowed Quintana to get up the road in the final week to take back a little bit of time, and if that formula holds here, Quintana could skip clear on the last climb of the day to take a stage victory. Alejandro Valverde, sitting in 3rd, seems a bit less likely to launch a suicide attack since he’s never actually landed a podium performance in the Tour in his long career, but his powerful finishing kick makes him a threat if things are still together at the top of the final climb.
If Froome decides that he wants a stage victory, he will be very difficult to stop, as he’s been unbeatable on the climbs so far in this Tour de France; as such, he can never be counted out. However, with just two more mountain stages left in the race, Froome could decide to play this rather conservatively.
Alberto Contador has tried to go on the move in the Alps already, but he can’t quite get any separation. The legs just haven’t been there. Still, if Froome focuses all his attention on Movistar, the Giro-winner could steal a march on the other GC favorites. The same is true for Vincenzo Nibali, though the Italian isn’t at his best.
Robert Gesink’s strong form, fast finish, and non-threatening position a bit further down the leaderboard make him a nice candidate to try to make something happen out of the GC group on the final climb. The same is true for Bauke Mollema, though the form hasn’t quite been as strong for Mollema in this Tour de France.
If the early breakaway stays clear, it will likely include plenty of familiar long-range attackers. Jakob Fuglsang has now missed out on two stage wins from the breakaway, and the most recent one will likely have him fired up for another shot. A collision with a race moto took Fuglsang down on the hardest climb of Stage 18, and chasing back onto the breakaway group left him burnt out for the final battle for the stage victory. It also kept him from collecting as many points in the KOM competition, leaving him sitting 3rd in that classification. Fuglsang will likely try very hard to get into the break on one or both of the next two stages in the hunt for KOM points and a stage victory, and the long, challenging climbs of Stage 19 suit him very well.
Joaquim Rodríguez is currently tied with Romain Bardet (just ahead of Fuglsang) on KOM points and will have to get up the road again if he wants to win the competition. He won the early battles for points on Stage 18 but then faded on the Col du Glandon. However, Rodríguez has said that he missed a feed before taking on the climb and then suffered a hunger knock, which shouldn’t hold him back on Stage 19. Plus, he won’t have nearly the effort in his legs that many of his breakaway rivals continued to put in all the way to line. He’s definitely a candidate for success.
So is Bardet, though the young Frenchman may be a bit more conservative in his racing (and he may be more of a marked man) now that he’s holding on to a Top 10 on GC. A monumental effort to win Stage 19 with a solo attack from over 40km out won’t help either. He’s definitely a threat and will be a favorite if he can get into the break, but back-to-back stage wins from the break in the Alps is an extremely challenging feat.
Unlike the aforementioned trio, Pierre Rolland probably won’t expend energy trying to pick up KOM points if he gets into the Stage 19 breakaway. He’s got to be a bit tired after a tough Stage 19, but like Fuglsang he’ll be motivated by the missed opportunity and will likely be very interested in getting on the move in the penultimate mountain stage of the 2015 Tour.
Thibaut Pinot, Tanel Kangert, Serge Pauwels, Ryder Hesjedal, Andrew Talansky, Samuel Sánchez, Rafal Majka, Winner Anacona, Adam Yates, and Rafael Valls and Rigoberto Urán (two of the few likely breakaway hopefuls who didn’t spend much energy on Stage 18) are other potential candidates for long-range success on Stage 19.
VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Jakob Fuglsang | 3. Pierre Rolland
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 19.
