Tag: Grand Tour

Tour de France 2015: Stage 8 Preview

On the heels of Mark Cavendish’s big sprint victory on Stage 7, the Tour de France heads into a stretch of more GC-oriented days, starting with the 181.5-kilometer Stage 8. It is another day that could come down to a showdown near the finish, but a steep climb to the line will bring a different set of riders to the fore.

The action kicks off in Rennes, Brittany. The first half of the stage is mostly flat, with the first of two categorized climbs finally appearing around the midway point of the action. It’s only a Cat. 4, and not likely to see much of a shakeup. That climb is followed by a descent and then a few gentle ups and downs, which roll all the way to the finish, where things will get interesting.

Stage 8 finishes atop the Mûr-de-Bretagne climb, 2 kilometers in length with a challenging average gradient of 6.9%—but the average gradient doesn’t tell the full story. The first kilometer of the ascent has sections in the double digits, and averages just under 10%. After this steep opener, things ease off in the second half of the climb, with the gradient gradually decreasing into the final 500 meters, which angle upward at only 2.4%.

The steep incline of the Mûr-de-Bretagne will make for a thrilling, through hard to predict, Stage 8 finale.

The vicious gradients that open the Mûr-de-Bretagne will keep the traditional sprinters from contending for the stage victory. That will, in turn, likely lead to a less organized chase in the bunch, which could help out any breakaway riders who manage to get up the road. What’s more, the upcoming team time trial will probably have the GC teams inclined to take this stage easy, rather than putting the pressure on all day. There are bonus seconds on offer at the line, and there are plenty of strong puncheurs in this race who will have a great chance at this finish if their teams keep the stage under control, but the early break does have a very real chance at going the distance on this stage—it seems to be about a 50/50 proposition to me. As such, no rider should be seen as “the favorite” for the stage, though there are plenty of riders who will be favored if they are in the lead group inside the final 10 kilometers: the battle for stage honors, whether that battle is being fought within a small group of breakers or the larger bunch, will likely come down to the final climb, which will suit riders that have some combination of strong climbing legs and a fast finish.

If the pack is able to reel in the early move, Joaquim Rodríguez, who won on the Mur de Huy a few days ago, will like the look of this one. He has flashed strong form in this Tour, and he has both the climbing prowess to launch a move early on this climb, and the finishing kick to outsprint a small group around him if he nears the finish line with company. Having the also explosive Giampaolo Caruso gives Katusha options.

At his best, Alejandro Valverde would love this profile, but form has been a question mark for Valverde so far in this Tour de France. On the Mur de Huy, where he won earlier this season in La Flèche Wallonne, he was unable to muster even a Top 10. This is another opportunity for him to use a skillset tailormade for this sort of finale, but his inability to make much an impact on this Tour so far can’t be ignored on a stage where he’d otherwise probably rank as my top favorite. Valverde’s teammate Nairo Quintana will be a rider to watch as well with this gradient—the diminutive Colombian doesn’t have Valverde’s top speed but few riders are as dangerous on gradients in the double digits. With a likelihood of gaps in this finale, Quintana will be locked in and should be in the mix at the front of the pack.

Dan Martin showed great form on Stage 3 on his way to 4th place, a result that would have been better if he hadn’t been way behind the head of the race before starting his charge through the ranks of riders struggling to make it to the top of the Mur. The extreme gradients on the lower slopes of that climb may have hindered Martin, who is very explosive but has never favored the double-digit slopes. The Mûr-de-Bretagne will be another great opportunity for him if this does come down to a group finish, especially with more space between the 10% gradient and the finish line in which Martin can make up ground he loses to the more effective climbers.

Chris Froome doesn’t have the Ardennes track record of Purito, Valverde, or Martin, but he’s an elite climber with an elite team around him that is fully dedicated to putting him into the perfect position for the uphill finishes. He was very strong on the Mur de Huy, and if this comes down to the GC men, I’d bet he’ll be right up there again here on Stage 8, with bonus seconds on the line. GC rival Vincenzo Nibali was not all that far behind, rolling across the line in 7th on Stage 3. Already down more than a minute on Froome, Nibali could try to get clear on the climb to earn a few seconds back on GC.

Peter Sagan won’t be able to match the GC favorites on the high gradients, but could hang on for the easier final kilometer if no one is too aggressive early on. The main factor playing against Sagan is the fact that the team may have him on domestique duty to help Alberto Contador, who is also a danger with this sort of gradient so close to the line.

A kilometer at over 9% might just be too much to ask of John Degenkolb, but he will have a shot at stage honors here if the pack can reel in the early breakaway. Rui Costa has been quiet so far in this Tour but should like this finish, as should another fast-finishing fringe GC contender, Bauke Mollema. Warren Barguil, a more-explosive-than-many-realize Tejay van Garderen, Robert Gesink, AG2R’s Romain Bardet and a surprising Alexis Vuillermoz, and Rigoberto Urán are others who could thrive in this finale if things come together before the line.

Tony Gallopin has the versatility to challenge for victory here in a variety of scenarios. He’s deadly in a long-range move, and capable in a reduced sprint as well. With the ability to weigh his options and determine his strategy out on the road, Gallopin has a great chance here. Teammate Tim Wellens is another rider to watch—he’s a smart attacker who can be very dangerous in a breakaway. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michal Kwiatkowski, Zdenek Stybar, Julian Arredondo, and Simon Yates are just a few of the other riders who can threaten for stage success either from the breakaway or from the bunch.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Tony Gallopin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 8. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 10, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Livarot › Fougères – 190.5km

Zdenek Stybar made the most of a small gap earned on a late climb to come away with a stage victory on Stage 6, denying a charging pack of chasers on his tail. Many of those same chasers, along with a number of the heavier quick men they left behind on the final ascent, will be hopeful for another chance at glory on Stage 7. The 190.5-kilometer road from Livarot to Fougères includes just one categorized climb, a Cat. 4 in the first 15 kilometers. After that, it’s gentle rollers and stretches of flat all the way to the finish.

There are a few twists and turns and roundabouts inside the last 10 kilometers, which lead into a finishing straight that angles slightly uphill in the final few hundred meters. With several GC-oriented days (in the form of a few climber-friendly stages with a team time trial squeezed in among them) just around the corner at the Tour de France, Stage 7 will be a prime opportunity for the sprinters to fight for a victory before their aspirations take a backseat for a while to the hopes of the yellow jersey contenders.

Coming into the Tour, Mark Cavendish looked to be the strongest sprinter in the race, but he’s been beaten twice now by André Greipel, making the pecking order of fast-finishing elite in this race a bit less clear. In both of Greipel’s wins, though, the leadout did not go according to plan for Cavendish, leaving the Manx sprinter in the wind for far too long—that makes it difficult to draw concrete conclusions about this matchup in terms of pure speed. On the other hand, Greipel’s acceleration on Stage 5 was quite an impressive sight by any measurement, and the way he blew past Cavendish in the final few hundred meters makes it hard to ignore just how strong he is right now.

In short, I see this as pretty close to a dead heat. If I had to deem one the favorite, I’d still name Cavendish the rider to beat. QuickStep has, amazingly, won two stages and taken the yellow jersey in the first week of the Tour de France all without a Cavendish victory. If they can finally muster all their talents toward setting their sprinter up for a high-speed finish, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, Greipel has shown that he’s quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunity.

In terms of racking up near misses at stages that seem to suit him perfectly, Peter Sagan has picked up in this Tour de France right where he left off in the 2014 edition of the race. He’ll have another chance here, and in fact, I think he has a better shot that the profile might suggest. With a slight incline at the very end of the day, a few late roundabouts that favor his strong positioning skills, and the terrific form he’s shown in the sprints these past few days, he should be in the mix for the win even against the likes of Cavendish and Greipel.

John Degenkolb would probably prefer a more challenging approach to the line but he brings a lot of speed to the table in any scenario and should be able to fight for the win. Like Sagan, he’s had multiple near-victories, and is extremely motivated to finally take that elusive victory. Alexander Kristoff has been a bit slow to start in this Tour but he was in the mix on Stage 5 and this stage suits him well. Arnaud Démare, Greg Van Avermaet, Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Davide Cimolai, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who should have a shot here.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 7. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 9, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Abbeville › Le Havre – 191.5km

With André Greipel’s second 2015 Tour win now in the books, the peloton is set to take on a 191.5-kilometer journey along the coast from Abbeville to Le Havre on Stage 6. The profile should set up an interesting contest.

There are only three categorized climbs on the road from start to finish, all of them Cat. 4s, and none of them inside the final 25km—but this is a rolling parcours throughout that could make things difficult to control. The finish is the most intriguing part of the stage. Inside the final two kilometers the road kicks upward on the Côte d’Ingouville, 850 meters at 7%, before mostly flattening out for the final half-kilometer or so. It’s not a categorized challenge, but it’s steep enough to put the heavier sprinters at a big positioning disadvantage before the last few hundred meters, and that’s assuming a large group comes to the finish in the first place.

A strong breakaway could have a chance on this profile, especially given the fact that some of the punchier favorites who could thrive in the finale ride for teams with GC interests, teams that might be less interested in wasting energy giving chase to a group up the road. However, with bonus seconds on offer at the line and a relative dearth of stages with opportunities for the less Alpine-inclined in this Tour de France, there should be decent motivation within the pack to keep this together at least into the final few kilometers, from which point it will be anyone’s game.

If he’s well-positioned coming into the final few kilometers, Peter Sagan should be able to handle the late climb and thrive in a somewhat reduced kick. He’s nearly won two sprint stages against the very fastest riders in this Tour de France already; with a bit of help from gravity on the uphill drag near the line on Stage 6, he’ll be very hard to beat. His biggest challenge, as it often is, will probably be other aggressive types trying to steal a march from the peloton a bit further out than the finishing straight—with Contador’s GC aspirations as Tinkoff-Saxo’s primary focus in the race, the team may not be inclined to put in the effort to control the race in the finale. Sagan will need to be alert here.

Lotto Soudal has had a great Tour so far and will have another opportunity for success on Stage 6. André Greipel is obviously on blazing form, having already nabbed two victories in this race. But with the late climb, Tony Gallopin may be the team’s best option here. Having landed an impressive 5th place on the Stage 3 Mur de Huy finish, ahead of some very strong climbers, he has the right mix of uphill ability and explosiveness to be in the mix, especially if there is action in the last few kilometers. This finale suits him very well.

Greg Van Avermaet should appreciate this opportunity to pick up an elusive Tour stage victory. The climb should be just hard enough to jettison some of the heavier types while still allowing Van Avermaet to survive and potentially jump clear. The Belgian is on excellent form right now.

John Degenkolb tends to put in good performances on stages with slightly uphill finishes, but I’m not sure how well he will handle the 7% gradient. That’s a bit steeper than he might like, and with so many strong puncheurs on the startlist, he will have his work cut out for him holding on if some of the better climbers put the pressure on. If he can hold a strong position in the finale, he’ll be deadly, but it won’t be easy.

Alejandro Valverde, on the other hand, would probably prefer a slightly more difficult finale, but he’s a danger regardless. He’s been particularly effective this season in reduced sprints this season, and the bonus seconds on offer on this stage should be great motivation to put in some effort here, though his form is a bit of a question mark after an underwhelming visit to the Mur de Huy on Stage 3. A stronger performance there might have me more confident in his chances here.

An in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen should like the look of this stage. It’s been a long time since he took a big victory but a good result should be well within his reach—he outgunned the likes of Degenkolb and several other strong sprinting favorites on Stage 5 and Stage 6 suits him even better. Michal Kwiatkowski has been a bit underwhelming so far in this Tour de France, but the Amstel Gold Race winner is always a danger on this sort of profile and will be a rider to keep an eye on—he knows how to get clear of a bunch when the opportunity presents itself, and he’s also got a great turn of speed if things stay relatively compact over the final climb. His EQS teammates Matteo Trentin and the surprisingly fast Rigoberto Urán may be dangerous in the finale as well. Mark Cavendish may find the late climb too steep, but if the peloton plays it conservatively, he might have a shot of holding on. Trek teammates Julian Arredondo and Bauke Mollema both rate as strong outsiders for me—they’re known for their climbing prowess but both pack a punch in a finishing kick like this. Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar, Bryan Coquard, Joaquim Rodríguez, the Cannondale duo of Dan Martin and Ramunas Navardauskas, and the Lampre-Merida duo of Davide Cimolai and Rui Costa are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Tony Gallopin | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 8, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Arras › Amiens – 189.5km

With Tony Martin in the yellow jersey following a hard-fought Stage 4 win, the fifth stage of the Tour should finally give the GC riders a chance to take a breath after several days of very hectic action early on in the race. The 189.5km course has small rollers throughout, but there are no categorized climbs to speak of on the day. Without any great launching pads, and given the relatively light helping of sprinter-friendly stages in this year’s Tour de France, the quick men will be locked in for this chance at a bunch finish. The finale into Amiens includes a late right hook inside the final kilometer, but after that it’s straight out to the line for roughly the final 500 meters, meaning that if this does come down to a bunch kick, it’s likely to be a high-speed one.

Etixx-QuickStep’s attempt to set Mark Cavendish up for a Stage 2 win was one of the worst performances by the typically very strong leadout squad in recent memory, and the poor execution left Cav eating wind far too early in the finale. As such, he didn’t even finish among the Top 3 on the day. If Stage 5 does come down to a sprint and Cavendish is involved, I think things will likely go down just a bit differently. He should be the fastest rider in this race, and in a big bunch sprint he will be hard to beat, especially if his (usually) solid leadout train can get it together.

André Greipel is probably the most likely to challenge Cavendish in a sprint, but I’m not reading too much into the fact that Greipel won their first faceoff—the Etixx train was beat after a long day, and Greipel was able to rely on Cavendish himself for a great leadout. That seems unlikely to happen again. Greipel has terrific top speed regardless of the situation, but beating Cavendish a second time, not to mention all the other sprint favorites, will be a challenge.

Alexander Kristoff hasn’t made a big impact yet in this Tour de France but a bunch kick would be a great opportunity for him to change that. Kept out of contention on a Stage 4 that looked well-tailored to his skills by a mechanical, Kristoff will be determined to make something happen on Stage 5. Given how strong he’s been so far this year, I’m expecting him to contend for victory.

Giant-Alpecin gave away the win on Stage 4 by not chasing down a late attack by Tony Martin. They were probably afraid of leading out other riders to the stage win, but given the alternative of not having any chance at the win at all, it seems like a pretty foolish decision. In any case, the team will have another opportunity on Stage 5. I’ve always said that John Degenkolb’s pure speed is an underrated aspect of his very versatile game, and I do think he’s capable of winning even a big bunch kick against other favorites.

Peter Sagan has shown blazing form in this race, nearly beating the powerful André Greipel in a drag race on Stage 2. With another chance at a Tour stage win, something that’s eluded him for a long time now. Like Degenkolb, Sagan sometimes gets overlooked as a top sprinter because of his versatility, but don’t count him out even in a big bunch kick.

Nacer Bouhanni seems very likely to come out of that final turn in a good position given his ability to slot himself in perfectly for a sprint finish, and from there, he should be able to rely on his great burst of speed to fight for a result. That said, against this startlist, a win will be a challenge. He’s had plenty of success this year in lower-level races, and in a Dauphiné devoid of any other top-tier sprinting talent, but so far in 2015 he has yet to take a big victory over the caliber of riders in this race.

Arnaud Demaré, Bryan Coquard, Sam Bennett, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Davide Cimolai are other riders who will hope to be in the mix on Stage 5, one of the few great opportunities in this Tour de France for the fast finishers.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

What do you think? Let me know on Twitter @VeloHuman, and be sure to follow for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 5. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 7, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Seraing › Cambrai – 223.5km

On the heels of another thrilling early stage in the 2015 Tour de France (won by Joaquim Rodríguez atop the Mur de Huy), the fourth day of the Tour brings the Classics-style opening to the race to a cobbled finale in northern France. It’s a comparatively long stage at 223.5 kilometers, and though mostly flat (there is only one categorized climb, a Cat. 4, early on in the day), a collection of seven cobblestone sectors will offer plenty of challenges to make things interesting.

The first comes about halfway through the day, and then the final six come between the 50km-to-go mark and the 10km-to-go mark, in relatively rapid succession and with never more than 10 kilometers without cobbles inside the final 50 kilometers of racing.

It’s important to point out here that the parcours of the cobbled stage in the 2015 Tour looks a bit different from the parcours of the decisive Stage 5 of the 2014 Tour. On the one hand, this day will be longer than that one was, by about 70 kilomteters. On the other hand, the cobbled sectors aren’t quite as vicious this year. At the moment, the weather forecast does call for some difficult conditions for Stage 4, though things don’t appear to be as dire as they were for last year’s cobbled stage. Still, things could get pretty windy, and there is some chance of rain.

After a painful crash in Stage 3, Fabian Cancellara has abandoned the race, but there are still plenty of big-name Classics riders on the startlist who have had their sights on this stage since it was announced months ago. The GC riders, on the other hand, will be holding on as best they can, hoping to limit potential losses, especially after what happened in last year’s cobblestone ride, where Vincenzo Nibali took a massive chunk of time over all of his rivals on the rough roads in France. Expect to see all sorts of attacks, expect to see a few crashes, and definitely expect to see a severely reduced peloton near the end of the day—at the same time, however, don’t be too surprised if this ends in a reduced sprint. The road is pretty flat from start to finish and the riders aren’t taking on the Arenberg Trench or the Carrefour de l’Arbre, which could allow things to stay compact at the front for those tough enough to survive the long day.

Alexander Kristoff, winner of the 2015 Tour of Flanders, is terrific on this sort of terrain. He showed in De Ronde this year that he is fully capable of winning a bike race by getting into a decisive move far from the finish line; he’s also an elite sprinter, one of the best in the race, and that combination makes him dangerous here. He proved his form with a stage win in the Tour de Suisse, and should be ready for action here in the Tour’s Stage 4. Watch out for teammate Luca Paolini as well.

John Degenkolb took a Roubaix victory this year in an impressive style of his own, also jumping into a small move late in the race and closing a sizeable gap to a lead group mostly of his own accord to take the win. Like Kristoff, he’s got proven ability as a Classics specialist, not just as a sprinter who can handle cobbles. I’m not as confident that the form is quite at the level it needs to be, but Degenkolb will be among the very top favorites for this stage.

Peter Sagan has already racked up one 2nd-place finish in this Tour after collecting quite a few last year. He’ll have another chance for a big result (for him, a win is obviously the most ideal result here) on Stage 4. Sagan very nearly pipped André Greipel in a pure sprint on Stage 2, suggesting that he’s on absolutely blazing form right now—the biggest question for the versatile Slovakian is whether or not he’ll have the freedom to get aggressive with the team’s main focus in this race being Alberto Contador’s GC chances. I think he’ll have some breathing room if the opportunities are there, but I don’t expect him to get involved in anything from too far out.

Greg Van Avermaet has yet to take a marquee Spring Classics victory but he’s always on point on the cobbles, and not bad in a fast finish either. Van Avermaet has looked very strong these past few weeks, and even finished 15th on the Mur de Huy on Stage 3 (ahead of names like Urán, Bardet, Barguil, Peraud, and many others). This is a great opportunity for a Tour victory for him, so expect to see some aggression late on in the stage.

Sep Vanmarcke doesn’t have quite the finishing kick that some of the other contenders here bring to the table, meaning that he’ll need to try to break clear on the rough terrain. If the weather is indeed bad, the opportunities will certainly be there. The form of the Belgian Classics specialist tends to quiet down every year after the spring, but with a great chance for a win in the sport’s biggest race, I think it’s fair to expect Vanmarcke to be in decent shape and hunting success here.

Lars Boom won last year’s crazy cobbled stage, and he delivered a few good results in the Classics with new team Astana this year. Expect another good performance on the cobbles of the Tour this year. Zdenek Stybar would probably prefer a tougher parcours but he’s a well-rounded rider who can make something happen on almost any terrain, and should fight with the top favorites for the win. Edvald Boasson Hagen has been in great shape lately and will be looking to collect some redemption after a Classics season marred by injury. Sylvain Chavanel also had a disappointing spring campaign but he’s also shown strong form at times this year and could thrive on Stage 4.

André Greipel flashed good form throughout the Classics this year and could surprise people in this stage—it’s flat enough that a flat finish could be in store. Bad weather could deter his chances though; he was great in the nasty conditions of Stage 3 on Monday but in his career he’s generally been less successful in the wet. Arnaud Demaré is another quick man with the ability to handle a few cobbles. Bryan Coquard and Sam Bennett could be up there as well, and don’t count out Mark Cavendish, who has won some big cobbled races in the past.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Alexander Kristoff | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 4. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 6, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Antwerp › Huy – 159.5km

Following a thrilling Stage 2 that, despite it’s Greipel-won sprint finale, saw several GC contenders lose chunks of time, the Tour de France will throw another stage with potential GC implications at the peloton early on in the race. The Tour may be leaving the Netherlands but it isn’t leaving the “Low Countries” altogether—Stage 3 will take the riders from Antwerp to Wallonia’s Ardennes region for a finish in Flèche Wallonne territory. The yellow jersey hopefuls will again need to be on their toes with this profile.

It’s not a long stage at 159.5km (not nearly as long as La Flèche Wallonne), but things get bumpy late in the day, especially in the final 20 kilometers, where the pack will hit the Cat. 4 Cote d’Ereffe, and then a quick uncategorized ascent, and then the Cat. 4 Cote de Cherave before the stage finish on the classic Mur de Huy. It’s only 1.3km from the bottom to the top but the winding road up the Mur averages 9.6%, with a 19% section along the way. The Cat. 3 finish will have GC contenders and climbing-oriented stagehunters alike vying for position on the vicious gradient.

Alejandro Valverde won La Flèche Wallonne this year for the third time in his career. An elite climber with a devastating kick uphill, he has to be the favorite here. Very few riders can explode ahead like Valverde on a climb like this, and given his brilliant form all season, there’s little reason to think he won’t be ready for lunch here on Stage 3. The motivation to charge up the Mur will be sky-high after Movistar’s big losses on Stage 2. Teammate Nairo Quintana, top-notch climber that he is, will also be a rider to watch. He doesn’t have the finishing speed that Valverde has, but anything with a gradient in the 9% range is favored terrain for Quintana.

Joaquim Rodríguez is another past Flèche Wallonne winner with a chance. He had a disappointing Ardennes campaign this season but has also shown flashes of brilliance this season (his País Vasco was incredible). He did crash on Stage 2, however, which may have left him a bit banged up coming into this stage.

Dan Martin has never won La Flèche Wallonne, but he’s been close multiple times. After a poor run in this year’s Ardennes, Martin is looking for some success in this Tour, and this is a great stage for him. He should be in the mix for the victory.

Julian Arredondo is typically very strong on this sort of finish, though he’s never actually landed a Flèche Wallonne Top 10. He lost a chunk of time on Stage 2 but will have a shot at redemption here. His teammate Bauke Mollema also has a nice upward kick, with several great results on the Mur in the past.

Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options for Stage 3. Michael Albasini is probably the team’s best bet, as he has done well on this climb in the past, though form is a bit of a question mark for Albasini. Simon Gerrans, excellent in an uphill sprint, is another option. Simon Yates, who has been in great shape pretty much all season long, could surprise people. He doesn’t have much Ardennes experience yet but this is a good profile for him.

World champ Michal Kwiatkowski has had good results on the Mur in the past and could shine in Stage 3. Meanwhile, his teammate Rigoberto Urán is suddenly in the GC conversation after an under-the-radar start. He has a great finishing kick and could continue to surprise people here if he can position himself well to battle it out with the big favorites. Vincenzo Nibali, Wilco Kelderman, Rui Costa, Tim Wellens, and possibly even Peter Sagan will like the profile as well. And don’t count out Chris Froome just because he’s not an Ardennes specialist—this is a steep finishing climb in a Tour de France stage, and that’s reason enough for Froome to be seen as a big threat.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Joaquim Rodríguez | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 3. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 5, 2015