Michael Matthews took Stage 3 of the Giro d’Italia, and he should like the looks of Stage 4 as well. The route contains only three officially categorized climbs, but a fair bit of up and down, and the final climb is crested 10 kilometers from the finish, with steep sections of over 10% near the top and with 7km of descent to follow before a flat run-in to the line.
It’s another day that will likely have the breakaway specialists hoping to make something happen, but this early in the race, and with so many versatile fast finishers on the startlist, the peloton should keep them within striking distance. A reduced sprint between the survivors of the sting in the tail of this route, the Biassa climb, seems the most likely outcome (and even if a break does make it, expect to see at least a few of the upcoming names trying their luck from afar too).
Orica-GreenEdge has more than option on this sort of parcours, with two of the best riders for a reduced sprint on the roster. Michael Matthews, wearing the pink jersey, is an obvious candidate after his victory on Stage 3. He shines in selective sprints. If some of the purer climbers inject the pace on the final ascent, he may have trouble maintaining his position, but the way he’s been riding this year, especially the way he was glued onto Philippe Gilbert’s wheel on the Cauberg in the Amstel Gold Race, would suggest that he’s capable of a challenge like this. If he can’t, Simon Gerrans might be able to take up the slack. This is a perfect parcours for Gerrans and on any other day he might be the very top favorite, but having the pink jersey wearer on his own team means he might defer to his compatriot here. Either way, both are dangerous, as is Simon Clarke.
Philippe Gilbert came close to the win in Stage 3, and this is another great profile for him, perhaps even better, with a late climb that could see him putting pressure onto his rivals. It’s a flat finish but he’s a strong sprinter who can outmatch most climbers.
Fabio Felline is also a great candidate, one who defeated Matthews and Gilbert both at a similar finish in País Vasco. He’s in great shape right now, and an excellent climber who should have no problem with the parcours. If this comes down to a reduced sprint, expect to see him up there again, probably fighting it out with the same names that battled for the win in Sestri Levante.
Diego Ulissi spent a lot of time in the breakaway on Stage 3, and in the end, did not contend for a finish that suited him quite well. He’s got a great sprint and he’s a terrific climber; for Ulissi, this stage will be all about whittling down the pack to the right combination of opponents that he can outlast in a bunch kick.
Juan José Lobato lost contact on the difficult profile of Stage 3 but he’ll have another chance here. Southeast’s Francesco Gavazzi, Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Battaglin, EQS’s Gianni Meersman, and CCC’s Greg Bole are others on the list of in-between types with the versatility to handle some climbing and the finishing kicks to win a reduced sprint. A more selective day could see the likes of Tom-Jelte Slagter, Sergey Lagutin, Damiano Caruso, Paolo Tiralongo, Damiano Cunego, and speedy GC contender Rigoberto Urán in the mix. Of course, there’s always the possibility that the day isn’t so hard as to drop all of the purer sprinters, leaving a small window open for riders like André Greipel, Giacomo Nizzolo, Moreno Hofland, and Elia Viviani.
VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites
1. Michael Matthews | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Philippe Gilbert
Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race, and be sure to check back after the conclusion of Stage 4 for the preview of the next stage.
With Elia Viviani’s Stage 2 victory kicking off the road racing proper in this Giro d’Italia, the peloton will take on a short but intriguing third stage. Officially, the route only contains two categorized climbs (an early Cat 3. and a later Cat. 2), but for the first 112 kilometers of racing, there is barely a km of flat road. The road goes up and down and up again (with a general skyward trend for the first 92km) for quite a while. Most of the climbing is at a low gradient, but the riders will ascend from seaside Rapallo into the hills and reach an altitude of 1115 meters, the top of the Cat. 2 Barbagelata climb before a long descent to Monleone, after which they’ll only have 23km remaining to the finish. It’s a flat run-in to Sestri Levante and the line, but it won’t be easy getting there.
There aren’t all that many vicious gradients to face here but the Barbagelata climb is no cake-walk, 5.7km at 8%, and it comes after the pack will have already done a great deal of climbing. It is almost a certainty that some of the heavier riders in the peloton will lose contact before all is said and done, and with a long descent to follow, there won’t be all that much time to rejoin the main group.
A breakaway will likely get clear early and hold out an advantage over the bumpier parts of the stage, but with a flat run-in to the line and a likelihood of a few fast finishers still hanging around, it’s hard to see a breakaway surviving. The most probable scenario on Stage 3 would seem to be a reduced sprint.
Pink jersey wearer Michael Matthews is one of cycling’s best in the aforementioned scenario. He’s fast enough to beat the pure sprinters when he’s on a very good day; against a tired out pack, likely whittled down by the day’s climbing, he’ll be tough to beat, especially with the strong Orica-GreenEdge team helping him out. Simon Gerrans could be a deadly alternative.
JJ Lobato is one of the few riders who deserves to be considered as strong a favorite as Matthews, because he, too, can handle some climbing, and he’s already beaten Matthews in a sprint this year more than once. Movistar is mostly in this Giro for stage wins, and this is a great opportunity for Lobato. He has cooled off a bit after a very hot start to the season but that’s no reason to overlook him here.
Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo will try to hold on and will obviously be among the favorites if he can, but Fabio Felline, who won a stage in País Vasco last month, could be the better bet for Trek. He’s a terrific climber who placed in the Top 10 on GC at the Criterium International. Etixx-QuickStep’s Gianni Meersman is another very versatile fast finisher who will probably appreciate the profile.
The obvious sprinter candidates, including Elia Viviani, André Greipel, Sacha Modolo, and Luka Mezgec, will all do their best here too, but the gradients will be a real challenge.
BMC’s Philippe Gilbert can be speedy in a reduced sprint, and could look to get involved, with Tom-Jelte Slagter, Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli, Francesco Gavazzi, Heinrich Haussler, and Grega Bole potentially in the mix as well if some of the purer speed guys are missing. If the pack is seriously whittled in the mountains, the likes of Diego Ulissi and even Rigoberto Urán could thrive here.
Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro d’Italia. Be sure to check back after the conclusion of Stage 3 for the preview of the next stage. And, of course, there is still plenty of insight to be gleaned from the Recon Ride pre-race podcast, which you should definitely give a listen if you have already…
Road racing gets underway at the Giro d’Italia with a mostly flat Stage 2. A single Cat. 4 climb inside the final 60 kilometers is the only official categorized acent of the day. The finish has a few bumps, though, and the road to the line angles ever so slightly uphill.
With the general classification still completely unsettled and a profile without many big challenges, this looks like a sprinters’ stage all the way. There are several candidates for victory—although there are plenty of big-name fast finishers in the race, none comes in as the clear favorite for one reason or another.
André Greipel has the strongest track record and, at his best, probably the fastest kick. He’s probably the best bet to win Stage 2, though he’s here without much of a leadout and he’s not the most consistent rider in the world, often disappearing on days that would seem to suit him.
Giacomo Nizzolo can handle a slightly uphill finish and he’s highly motivated in this Giro d’Italia, with a dedicated leadout train to position him well among the favorites. Few can match him for top speed. Sacha Modolo is also extremely quick, and coming off a nice stage win in the Tour of Turkey. He can run hot and cold, but if he’s feeling good, he will be hard to beat.
Elia Viviani is a strong sprinter who won’t have as much support as he’d like, given the fact that Sky is here for Richie Porte; still, I think he’s capable of coming away with a victory in a straight-up bunch kick. Nacer Bouhanni showed last year that you don’t need an elite leadout to win big sprints in the Giro. Luka Mezgec does have a strong leadout squad but little in the way of recent results. Still, he’s a danger.
Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge can’t be underestimated even if a big bunch gallop. He’s been successful in that scenario before. With the slight uphill drag at the line, he’ll be an even stronger candidate for victory. The same is true for JJ Lobato, who has had a nice year so far.
Other candidates for victory in the likely sprint are Matteo Pelucchi, Alessandro Petacchi, Moreno Hofland, and the EQS duo of Gianni Meersman and Tom Boonen.
The Giro d’Italia kicks of the first three weeks of Grand Tour season this weekend. Last year’s winner Nairo Quintana won’t be at the startline, but the hottest rider of the spring, the best GC rider in recent history and last year’s runner-up will be, along with a host of other big talents. Every one of the major jerseys in the race (pink, red, blue, and white) will face fierce competition from a number of candidates—as Grand Tours go, things are pretty open for the taking in the 2015 Giro d’Italia, and that should make it even more worth watching. And more worth checking out pre-race content too, like the most recent Recon Ride pre-race podcast…
The Route
This year’s Giro route is a balanced one, with six or seven days that favor the sprinters (depending on how optimistic you are about the versatility of some of the quick men), about as many days for the GC types, several intermediate stages, a team time trial, and an individual time trial. It’s the sort of parcours that will require a complete set of skills to make it through with success.
The TTT kicks things off—at 17.6 kilometers it won’t open up massive gaps but it will give a few teams a not-insignificant advantage in the fight for the pink jersey. The sprinters and puncheurs, and the craftier aggressors will have their opportunities in the opening week of flat or rolling stages, though a small summit finish on Stage 5 will probably see at least a few GC hopefuls caught unprepared. Stage 8 is another potential GC day, with a breakaway friendly Stage 9 and then a rest day to follow. Stages 10 through 13 will be prime targets for the stagehunters as the GC types prepare for a critical week starting with a very long (59.4km) individual time trial on Stage 14. By the end of the day, there will be sizeable differences between the riders on the GC leaderboard.
But they won’t get to rest in the aftermath. Challenging mountains await on Stages 15 and 16 (the latter offers the viciously steep Mortirolo as the penultimate ascent on the day). The pink jersey hunters will catch their breath on a relatively easy Stage 17 before a difficult trio of mountain stages, culminating with a Stage 20 that will force the peloton to go up and over the incredible Colle delle Finistere.
Stage 20: Sint Vincent › Sestriere (196km) – The penultimate climb of the day will be among the hardest uphill challenges the professional peloton will face all season.
It may not have the name recognition of some other famous Giro mountains, but that won’t be much comfort to the riders climbing it’s 18.5 brutal km at a 9.2% average gradient. Stage 20 closes thing out with a sprinter-friendly day in Milan.
The GC Contenders
The trio rightfully receiving the most attention prior to the start of the race is that of Alberto Contador, Richie Porte, and Rigoberto Urán. Each is a complete rider backed by a strong team.
Contador, who has won this race in the past, looks like the top favorite. His skills are widely known. At his best, he’s almost unbeatable, and one might expect him to easily best Porte and Urán—but he’s aiming for the Giro-Tour double this season, and that may explain in part why his early-season racing has not been up to Contador standards.
Still, he’s put in okay showings all year long, hanging with the top favorites on the mountain stages of the one-weekers he’s raced, letting others be the main protagonists as he has rolled into Top 10 placings. In this race, which matters much more than Tirreno-Adriatico, expect Contador to fight harder. His form may be a bit of a question mark but his ceiling is so high it’s hard to look past him even if he’s a bit below 100%. Roman Kreuziger, Michael Rogers, and Ivan Basso (Kreuziger in particular) make for excellent lieutenants.
Richie Porte, on the other hand, has been terrific so far this year. He’s checked all the boxes in the run-up to this race, winning both on the hills and against the clock. Now all that remains is the big goal of his season. Thanks to his strong TT, Porte is best-suited to races with lots of chrono mileage, and the 59.4km ITT should be good for him. The big concern for Porte is his propensity to crack in a three-week race. As amazing has some of his one-week performances have been, he is a 30-year-old GC rider with just one Grand Tour Top 10 to his name, so often putting in a bad day in the mountains to ruin his campaigns. If he can avoid that this year (which is something that’s been said in the past) he should contend for the victory, with help from Leopold König, Mikel Nieve, and the rest of a strong Sky team.
Urán will hope to better his two straight runner-up performances. With Contador and Porte around, it won’t be easy, but if Contador is indeed lacking for form compared to Urán, for whom the Giro is the season’s main target, and if Porte does have a bad day in the high mountains, then Urán can slide into the driver’s seat with his powerful engine. And really, neither of those conditions is that unlikely, making Urán a viable contender.
Fabio Aru would probably be right up in there in the favorites conversation but he’s been sick this year and it’s hampered his prep. He’s a brilliant climber when in form, making him dangerous regardless, but the health is a question mark. The long ITT doesn’t suit him either. He’ll need all the help he can get in this race, though Astana brings a strong squad of supporters/potential alternatives with the likes of Mikel Landa, Dario Cataldo, and Diego Rosa.
Domenico Pozzovivo doesn’t have a flashy resume but he’s put in several strong performances here over the years and could be one to take advantage of the situation if the top favorites start looking at each other. He’s got an impressive uphill burst.
Former winner Ryder Hesjedal will hope to leave his mark on the 2015 edition of the race but Cannondale-Garmin teammates Davide Formolo and Tom Danielson may be even better bets. Jurgen Van Den Broeck of Lotto Soudal looked great in the Tour de Romandie. Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti and possibly Ion Izagirre will hope to carry the flag in place of Nairo Quintana. Expect at least one of them to do very well. Katusha’s Ilnur Zakarin will look to continue his great run; it’s pretty hard to know what to expect from the surprise Romandie winner here. Damiano Caruso and Darwin Atapuma, Przemyslaw Niemiec and Diego Ulissi, Damiano Cunego, and Esteban Chaves are other outside candidates for GC contention.
The Stagehunters
The sprinters’ stages should be a bit more unpredictable than they were last year, when Marcel Kittel and Nacer Bouhanni dominated the conversation in succession. André Greipel is probably the fastest “on paper,” but he’s lacked consistently of late and isn’t the type to win every sprint stage in a race. Giacomo Nizzolo could finally get that Giro stage win after years of trying: his top speed is impressive. Elia Viviani transferred to Sky during the offseason and will hope to get at least a little bit of support from his team on the sprinters’ days. Luka Mezgec will benefit from Giant-Alpecin’s always strong leadout but his early season has not mirrored his impressive early 2014 campaign. Sacha Modolo is extremely fast but can run hot and cold.
Michael Matthews, who wore pink and took an amazing hilltop victory last year, will return to fight for the bumpier sprint stages with JJ Lobato, who has been great so far this year. Matteo Pelucchi and Heinrich Haussler, Tom Boonen and Gianni Meersman, Moreno Hofland, and Nicola Ruffoni are other speedsters who could be in the mix on the days that end in fast finishes.
Watch out for the always aggressive Adam Hansen, Sylvain Chavanel, Maciej Paterski (who has been great so far in 2015), the entire Bardiani-CSF team (especially Stefano Pirazzi), which will be firing off breakaway attempts at every opportunity, and punchy types like Simon Gerrans, Tom-Jelte Slagter and Philippe Gilbert on the intermediate days.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Race Favorites
GC Winner: Alberto Contador Podium: Richie Porte, Rigoberto Urán Other Top Contenders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Beñat Intxausti, Fabio Aru, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Roman Kreuziger, Ilnur Zakarin
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race, and keep an eye out for daily stage previews (the Stage 1 Preview is already up)!
Episode 12: Giro d’Italia 2015 Show, Part I The Giro d’Italia is almost here! The Recon Ride offers a boatload of pre-race analysis on the year’s first Grand Tour, with plenty of insight from a few of the riders who will be taking on the race.
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The 2015 Giro d’Italia is nearly upon us. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm cover the major storylines ahead of the race in the first of three Giro shows, with some inside-the-peloton insight as well, thanks to interviews with Giacomo Nizzolo, Matteo Pelucchi, and Adam Hansen.
The Vuelta is always an important opportunity for riders who have missed out on results in the early part of the season to take one final shot at Grand Tour success, but a particularly crash-heavy 2014 made this year’s Vuelta startlist one of the strongest in years. The late-season showdown, with many of the sport’s top talents in the mix, was a nice platform for several riders to make strong statements to close out the Grand Tour calendar.
Big Names Deliver in GC Battle
Alberto Contador has now ridden in the Vuelta three times in his career, and he’s won the overall victory each time. That is a stunning achievement in and of itself; this year’s victory is an especially impressive feat given the powerhouse startlist. Contador was untouchable in the mountains, and he was very good in the time trial as well. He also rode a tactically brilliant race; he had the weakest team of any of the top GC contenders, and it didn’t seem to matter at all. He followed the attacks he needed to follow, and didn’t waste energy with others. He was robbed of a chance to prove his strength at the 2014 Tour de France, but this ride at the 2014 Vuelta will be a warning to his rivals that he’ll be very hard to beat in the 2015 Tour.
Had Chris Froome continued throughout the race in the same shape that saw him lose a chunk of time to even Alejandro Valverde in a long, mostly flat time trial, it might have been cause for concern, but he ended the race very, very strong. It’s a shame it took him some time to get back to his best (it would have made for a better, more competitive race if he were able to put in the sort of time trial we know he’s capable of) but his main goal in starting this race was to ride well in a Grand Tour before the season’s end, and he absolutely did that. He may not have been able to touch Contador after falling behind early, but he should still come out of the race with confidence for 2015.
Nairo Quintana‘s abandonment following a bad crash took some excitement out of the race. Hopefully he will recover quickly for 2015; the strength he showed early this season will make him a top favorite in the Tour next year. Teammate Alejandro Valverde wasn’t able to threaten for the Vuelta overall once Contador took control, but that can’t take away from the amazing year he’s had. Among his many huge successes so far are victories in La Fleche Wallonne and San Sebastian, a Vuelta stage win, and Top 5s in the Amstel Gold Race, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta overall. His big ride in Spain came after a difficult Tour, to boot; it’s not easy to land a podium in the Vuelta on the heels of a three-week race finished less than a month before the start.
Joaquim Rodriguez, in 4th, never managed to contend, and he didn’t win a stage despite the presence of a very strong team. It was a disappointing ride given the expectations going in. His inability to match rival Valverde will be most frustrating for him. After dropping out of the Giro, Purito rode the Tour as a means of preparing for this race; it was an odd choice, and I’m not sure it was the right one.
Fabio Aru, on the other hand, should be thrilled with a 5th place result. He’s only 24, and he has now landed two Grand Tour Top 5s and three Grand Tour stage wins in the same year! It’s not easy to perform so well across two three-week races in one season, especially not as his young age. He made his “arrival” at the Giro, but I find his Vuelta a España, against so much top-tier talent and coming with plenty of race mileage in his legs already this year, just as impressive.
I’m not sure what Dan Martin‘s Grand Tour racing future holds because he clearly prefers the shorter events, but I’ve been saying for a while now that the has the talent to put in a Top 10 in a three-week event, if he could only avoid crashing or getting sick. It was good to see him finally deliver (7th overall), and against an elite startlist too. Warren Barguil, in 8th, also took a big career step. We knew he could climb, but could he perform at a high level across three weeks? It seems the answer is yes. He’s only 22.
Damiano Caruso was one of the biggest surprises of the race. He had never had a Top 10 in the General Classification of a WorldTour stage race coming into the Vuelta a España, and he picked up his first in a Grand Tour. BMC got a good one for next year.
Belkin will wish they’d gotten a bigger GC result out of this Vuelta, but they should be pleased with the performance of Robert Gesink, who was on track to land well inside the GC Top 10 before leaving the race for personal reasons. After a very tough start to the year and a long break spent recovering from a heart problem, that’s a very encouraging sign for Gesink.
A Few Thoughts on the Stagehunters
John Degenkolb dominated the sprints of the 2012 Vuelta, and his 2014 return to the race was a triumphant one. His four stage wins were impressive, especially the victory on Stage 5 over the very speedy Nacer Bouhanni. Degenkolb’s Points Classification victory may be even more impressive: it’s not easy for a sprinter to win the points jersey in the Vuelta, especially when versatile Alejandro Valverde is on the startlist, but Degenkolb was not to be denied once it became clear that green was within his reach. He missed out on a few opportunities at this year’s Tour due to an early injury in that race, but with the sort of speed he showed in Spain, he should be on track for plenty more success in the very near future, with the upcoming World Championships as a major target and the 2015 classics season and Tour beyond.
Alessandro De Marchi was another stagehunter who found success, picking up his first Grand Tour stage win after coming close several times in the past. He is emerging as one of the top breakaway talents in the peloton, showing a lot of strength when riding uphill on his own. He was King of the Mountains at the Dauphine in June, and riding off the front like he has been this year, a Grand Tour KOM jersey could be in his future.
Jasper Stuyven, who finished with six stage Top 10s, may not have come particularly close to any victories, but his consistent presence near the front on a variety of profiles bodes well for the future: he’s only 22. Yet another rising young talent for Belgium, who just announced a Worlds squad loaded with firepower.
Speaking of Worlds, it’s right around the corner! Stay tuned for VeloHuman previews of the team time trial, the individual time trial, and the road race, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.
