Tag: Grand Tour

Tour de Pologne 2014 Preview

The Tour de Pologne is the first stage race that follows the Tour de France on the WorldTour calendar. Now in its seventy-first year, it tends to be an exciting and often unpredictable contest, as many riders are coming into the race following La Grande Boucle, hoping to maintain their form for one more week, while others are returning to competition after long midseason breaks, and are therefore in unknown condition. Pieter Weening was the surprise winner of the 2013 edition. Daniel Martin and Moreno Moster both picked up their first WorldTour victories here. Expect more of the unexpected in this year’s journey through Poland.

The Route

The Tour de Pologne opens with several days that aren’t likely to impact the General Classification: the fast men should reign supreme at the beginning of this week of racing. Stage 1 has a few small hills, but it’s not likely to see any significant separation and will probably end in a sprint. Stages 2 and 3 are almost guaranteed to come down to a bunch gallop, while Stage 4 at least closes out with a succession of small rollers to open the door for some moves (though a sprint is again a likelihood).

Stage 6: Bukovina Terma Hotel Spa › Bukowina Tatrzańska (174 km) – A constant barrage of tough climbs will guarantee fireworks on the penultimate stage of the race.

Stage 5 will be a jarring transition, with some early uphill challenges and then an arduous skyward trip to the Štrbské Pleso resort that is repeated not once, but twice, with the third and final ascent climbing higher than the first two to a summit finish line. Stage 6 is an even harder day of climbing, with almost no flat sections across 174 kilometers of racing.

Stage 7 (ITT): Kraków › Kraków (25 km) – The chrono that concludes the race will play a major part in deciding the final General Classification.

The seventh and final stage of the Tour of Poland is a 25 kilometer race against the clock that starts and finishes in Kraków. It’s a mostly flat affair that will really favor the powerful time trialing experts, and it’s likely to play an integral role in deciding the overall winner.

The General Classification Contenders

A few early hills, a pair of tough mountain stages, and a high-speed chrono make this a profile for the well-rounded riders. The the time trial, in particular, will have a big impact on the overall leaderboard: a 25 km ITT may not seem like much, but with only two real climbing stages to open up any serious gaps on GC, it will be a pivotal test for the contenders.

As unpredictable as the Tour de Pologne tends to be, Rafal Majka will enter the race as a top favorite. He’s a star climber who just won two stages and the King of the Mountains classification in the Tour de France, showcasing stellar form right now, but he has also developed considerably as a soloist this year, putting in a ride good for 4th in the Giro’s first (and less climber-friendly) ITT. With the motivation of performing in front of his home crowd, Majka has the tools to better the 4th overall he notched in the 2013 edition of this race.

The winner of that 2013 running of the Tour de Pologne, Pieter Weening, will be another likely protagonist in the GC battle. He’s had an up-and-down year, anonymous in some races but also winning a stage at the Giro d’Italia and the recent Giro della Toscana. When he is locked in, he’s a major talent, and this is a race in which he’s had a lot of success; in addition to his recent overall victory, he also has been 2nd overall and a stage winner in the past. Versatile Cameron Meyer will be a great teammate.

Movistar’s Ion Izagirre was runner-up in 2013 and looks to be on good form right now, having put in a strong ride in support of Alejandro Valverde in the Tour de France. The 25-year-old can deliver a nice time trial and while the high-gradient climbs can be a bit of a challenge for him, the uphill tests in this Tour de Pologne should be within his capabilities. Movistar also has Beñat Intxausti, who has shown immense talent in various races throughout his career (he was 8th in the Giro and outclimbed Rui Costa and Dan Martin to win the Tour of Beijing last year), but who has also been a nonfactor in plenty of races where he might have been expected to thrive. Eros Capecchi (6th in the 2013 Tour of Poland) and Andrey Amador are other options.

Sky’s Dario Cataldo will like the look of the profile. A strong time trialist who is also capable of powering up the less steep climbs quite nicely, he has the skillset to succeed here. Sky is desperate to find a shred of success right now and Cataldo is a tough competitor who came close to delivering results on a number of occasions in this year’s Giro. This could be his opportunity. Kanstantsin Siutsou, great in the ITT, and up-and-comer Sebastian Henao, great on the climbs, are other options.

Trek has a very strong squad for this race, with several potential GC contenders. It will be interesting to see how they play this: Bob Jungels should land a nice result on the final time trial, though the climbs will be a big challenge for him. Giro d’Italia King of the Mountains Julian Arredondo, on the other hand, shouldn’t have much trouble with those climbs, but he doesn’t have much ability against the clock. The same is true for Robert Kiserlovski, 10th overall in this year’s Giro. In other words, depending on how they decide to take on this race, Trek will have the firepower to light up the mountain stages, or to help support their more capable time trialist through them. Given all of the talent in the roster, it seems likely that they’ll have at least one rider in the mix for the Tour of Poland GC.

Wouter Poels of OPQS has an excellent skillset to contend. Known for punchy climbing ablility, he has developed into a good time trialist as well. He was 4th here in 2011 and has had a great year so far. Teammate Thomas De Gendt is another potential protagonist, with a top-notch time trial. He’s been an inconsistent rider on the climbs recently, sometimes showing great uphill form, sometimes struggling mightily, but if he can put together a pair of good days during the mountain stages, he could be in the mix.

Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal isn’t the rider he was in 2012 when he won the Giro, but he did land a decent 9th in that race this year, and followed that up with some strong riding in support of Andrew Talansky during the Dauphine. He hasn’t raced since, but this will be an important step in his Vuelta preparation. 23-year-old Nathan Brown, good against the clock and capable on climbs that aren’t too steep, could be a nice dark horse candidate.

Belkin’s Robert Gesink enters the race with unknown form, without many racing days in 2014 as a result of a heart condition that required surgery in the spring. A great all-round talent when at his best, he will be a rider to watch in this race. It’s hard to say how he’ll do: if the intense training he’s been doing out of competition has pulled him back into form, he’ll could contend here; on the other hand, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him fall off the pace early.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon was on the podium of last year’s race, but he’s done very little so far in 2014. He did spend a lot of time putting in work for his teammates in the Tour de France, however, so it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see him in the mix despite a lack of results this year: he’s obviously a great climber but he’s not bad in the ITT either. Astana’s Fabio Aru established himself as an elite uphill specialist in this year’s Giro d’Italia, but it will be a big ask for him to separate himself enough from the pack on the steep stuff to counteract the inevitable losses in a mostly flat ITT. Janez Brajkovic could be a nice alternative for the team. The chrono will be a major obstacle for Giant-Shimano’s Warren Barguil, but he’s a great climber who should be starting to round into form for the Vuelta. BMC has a very strong nice three-pronged attack in Steve Cummings, Samuel Sanchez, and Peter Velits. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort, Cannondale’s Davide Formolo, Damiano Caruso, and Moreno Moser, FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez, Lampre-Merida’s Przemyslaw Niemiec (who will try to get something out of this season in his home race after a crash doomed his Giro hopes), RusVelo’s Ilnur Zakarin, and CCC Polsat Polkowice’s Davide Rebellin are other outsiders who could be looking to land a GC result.

The Stagehunters

With several stages likely to end in sprints, the fast men will feature prominently in this race. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo looks to be the class of the bunch (with teammate Roberto Ferrari as a nice alternative), while Belkin’s Theo Bos, Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, OGE’s Michael Matthews, Movistar’s Juan Jose Lobato, Sky’s Ben Swift (and Edvald Boasson Hagen), and Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar will be other top contenders in the sprints. AG2R’s Yauheni Hutarovich and Davide Appollonio, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, OPQS’s Nikolas Maes, and Astana’s Francesco Gavazzi will also hope to be in the mix for the bunch finishes.

In addition to the many strong time trialists already mentioned as potential GC contenders, there will be several other chrono specialists in attendance, with Movistar’s Adriano Malori the top name on the list. OGE’s Brett Lancaster, Belkin’s Jack Bobridge, and Giant-Shimano’s Tobias Ludviggson are others with the potential to deliver against the clock.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Rafal Majka
Podium: Pieter Weening, Dario Cataldo
Other Top Contenders: Ion Izagirre, Wout Poels, Bob Jungels, Christophe Riblon, Ryder Hesjedal, Robert Gesink, Fabio Aru

As usual, VH will be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more. Also, be sure to check back in a few days for the preview of the Eneco Tour!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Piotr Drabik.

August 2, 2014
Tour de France 2014 Post-race Impressions: Nibali Dominant, Others Ascendant

Now that the 2014 Tour de France is officially in the books, there’s time to draw a few conclusions about what we’ve seen. Three weeks of racing offer enough storylines and takeaways for weeks of analysis, but I’ve distilled my impressions down to a select few major observations.

A Worthy Winner

Vincenzo Nibali did not want this race to be remembered as the Tour de France without Chris Froome and Alberto Contador, and the results he delivered in pursuit of a truly dominant performance were quite impressive. With four stage wins and several other Top 5s, a strong challenge for the polka dot jersey, and a gap of nearly eight minutes to his closest challenger, Nibali was in another universe compared to the competition in the race. It would have been nice to have seen him battling Froome and Contador, and as things stand right now, Froome is still the oddsmakers’ favorite for the 2015 Tour, but Nibali did all the right things to ensure his place in the history books as a worthy maillot jaune.

We always knew that Nibali was a strong climber (one does not win the Vuelta and Giro without elite climbing ability) but he was up for it on every type of uphill challenge on the menu in this Tour, and avoided even one bad day. What’s more, he has developed into a top-notch time trialist, landing 4th in the Stage 20 chrono. And perhaps most importantly for this race, he displayed the sort of bike handling skills and racing savvy necessary to survive three weeks of riding on often rain-soaked and occasionally cobbled roads. There is a lot to be said for his ability to emerge unscathed from a Tour that dashed the hopes of so many other riders.

A Lengthy Injury Report

Speaking of those other riders: as much as Nibali did everything in his power to make this race his own, any rational analysis of this Tour has to include mention of the health issues that plagued so many riders and generated so many headlines. Alberto Contador was on fire this year and now he may not race again in 2014, and Chris Froome looked to be rounding back into shape before his multiple fractures took him out of the Tour. It would have undoubtedly been a very different Tour de France had they been in the mix in the mountains. They weren’t the only riders who suffered race-ending health problems. Mark Cavendish left the Tour on its very first day. Rui Costa was running well in the beginning of the race, but pneumonia hampered him as the Tour went on and ultimately he abandoned his campaign for a Top 10 overall. Andrew Talansky crashed and crashed again early on in the race and was just too banged up to continue riding at the level necessary to hang with the peloton. Andy Schleck suffered a serious knee injury which has put his next several months in doubt.

Others made it to the Champs-Élysées but were noticeably lessened by ailments along the way. Among the big names in this camp were John Degenkolb, whose first several days were hampered by injury, Arnaud Demare, who battled sickness, and Richie Porte, whose tumble out of the GC Top 10 may have been partially due to a chest infection. In short, a number of big names struggled with health issues in this Tour de France. Those riders who did survive and thrive in the race are worth noting, but it’s important to view all of their successes in perspective.

New Generation of Sprinters Here to Stay

With four victories, Marcel Kittel was clearly the best “pure sprinter” in the race. We’ll never know how Mark Cavendish might have fared against the younger Kittel through three weeks of racing, but Kittel continues to assert himself as a dominant force in the top tier of fast men. This is his second straight year of four wins, but remember, he’s only 26! Alexander Kristoff, with a pair of stage wins, is planting his flag as a sprinting force as well, especially in the bunch gallops that follow long and/or rainy days. Peter Sagan is known as the rider to beat on the hilly days that end in reduced sprints, but Kristoff has carved out a niche of his own: he’s not as strong a climber as Sagan, but even flatter stages, if lengthy enough (and especially when wet) can wear out the other fast men, and it is in those scenarios that Alexander Kristoff shines brightest. Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel were both in the mix on Stage 15, but Kristoff won anyway, much as he won the sprint finale of this year’s Milano-Sanremo despite the presence of Mark Cavendish.

Peter Sagan may not have won a stage in this year’s Tour, but the nine Top 5 stage finishes that put him into the green jersey are undeniably impressive. It seems likely that with a stronger team, he’ll be able to focus more on winning and less on chasing down late moves; the question of “Where will Sagan land?” will be the biggest story of transfer season.

Several other young non-winners were, nonetheless, strong performers on a number of stages as well. 22-year-old Bryan Coquard was always in the mix in the sprints, and 22-year-old Arnaud Demare and 25-year-old John Degenkolb delivered some nice results despite nagging ailments.

A French Resurgence

The 2014 Tour de France was a wonderful return to prominence for French cycling. Jean-Christophe Peraud, who has landed several impressive results in stage races in his career, put in a next-level performance to reach 2nd overall in cycling’s biggest event. He got stronger as the Tour went on, and benefitted from a top-notch team that also included 6th place finisher Romain Bardet, just 23 years old. A climbing specialist with serious talent and a high ceiling, Bardet now has a Top 10 in the Tour and in Liege-Bastogne-Liege on his 2014 resume (to go with several other nice results), and he should continue to develop as an uphill force.

Thibaut Pinot finally took that step up that many expected after his 10th overall and stage victory in the 2012 Tour; a podium position in the Tour de France (ahead of Grand Tour winner Alejandro Valverde) will do wonders for his confidence. He seems to have gotten over his fear of descending, which was a major drawback to his game, but he developed into a much more well-rounded rider in other ways too, now seemingly capable of putting in a strong time trial and several straight good days in the mountains. He should only get stronger over the next few years.

The GC riders weren’t the whole story for the French revival either. Consummate breakaway specialist Blel Kadri took a very long stage win in Gerardmer, and versatile Tony Gallopin spent time in the yellow jersey and later escaped Peter Sagan and a chasing pack to win Stage 11. He took an impressive victory in San Sebastian last year and continues to prove his wide array of talents that include climbing, soloing, and sprinting.

Deserving Team Leaders

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen recovered from a prior injury to race in this Tour, and then recovered from an early crash and a single bad day in the Pyrenees to land 5th on GC when all was said and done. 2013 was a rough year for the young American, who, despite winning both the Tour of California and the USA Pro Challenge, looked to have taken a step back as a Grand Tour rider in that year’s edition of La Grand Boucle. With Cadel Evans showing signs of slowing down, however, BMC backed van Garderen completely in this year’s Tour, and by consistently hanging with with the GC Top 10 types and then delivering a very strong time trial performance in the penultimate stage, van Garderen proved that he is back on track as a GC contender. He’s still just 25.

Not far behind van Garderen on the GC leaderboard was Leopold Konig. Konig took a stage and 9th overall in the 2013 Vuelta, but 2014 hadn’t been going smoothly for the young Czech climber, who was slated for his first run at being a team leader in the Tour de France. A knee injury hampered his early season campaign and left him unable to prepare as well as he would have liked for this race. He overcame those obstacles and looked strong in the second and third week of the Tour, climbing to 9th on GC before the time trial on Stage 20. He proceeded to deliver the chrono of his life and jumped two more placings to finish 7th overall. It shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as he has been delivering impressive time trial results somewhat under the radar over the last two years, but few expected him to land 5th in the ITT. If he can continue to show that sort of abiltiy against the clock, he will be a rider to watch in Grand Tours for years to come.

Looking Ahead

The last day of the Tour de France is not the last day of the cycling season! The Clasica de San Sebastian, a one-day race with a hilly profile designed to thrill, is less than a week away, with the Tour de Pologne and Eneco Tour soon after. Stay tuned for more previews, analysis, and rider interviews!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Adam Bowie, Sum_of_Marc, and Photigule.

July 28, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Évry › Paris – 137.5 km

With the time trial done and dusted (and won, unsurprisingly, by Tony Martin), only the Champs-Élysées finale remains in the 2014 Tour de France. Just 137.5 kilometers in length and quite flat, Stage 21 starts out in parade-like fashion, with champagne toasts and photo opportunities, and the pace remains pleasant until the peloton reaches Paris, when things start to speed up as the riders enter a 7 kilometer finishing circuit and begin an eight-lap journey to the end of the Tour de France. A few aggressive riders will attempt to break away from the pack on the circuit, but as the eighth lap and the final crossing of the line on the Champs-Élysées get closer and closer, the sprint teams will ramp up the pace, making it virtually impossible to stay away. Victory in the final stage of the Tour de France is one of the most prestigious prizes in the sport, and it’s rare that anything stands in the way of a sprinters’ battle royale on the Champs-Élysées.

Marcel Kittel of Giant-Shimano won the Champs-Élysées finale of last year’s race, and he is in the hunt for his fourth stage win at this year’s Tour de France. All three of his victories so far came very early in the race, as he did struggle a bit on some of the tougher stages after the first week, but Stage 21 doesn’t have the sort of profile that is likely to take much out of the massive German sprinter. Kittel has established himself as a dominant force in tests of pure speed, and he will be the rider to beat on the Champs-Élysées.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel does have a stage win under his belt in this year’s Tour, but he will be hungry for another here. In a drag race, few can match Marcel Kittel, but Greipel is probably the rider with the best chance of doing so. He has not done the best job of positioning himself in the many sprint stages of this race so far, but he has a strong support train and this is not a stage with too many obstacles for the powerhouse fast men to overcome on their way to the final few hundred meters. If he can nail the run-in, Greipel can challenge for victory on Stage 21.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff typically prefers fast finishes that follow hard days in the saddle, but he’s also got plenty of pure sprinting ability. He’s looked particularly strong in this race, benefitting from a team that is more focused on his success than they usually are. 6th on the final stage of the 2013 edition of the Tour, he could contend for the win on the Champs-Élysées this year.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will have one last chance at a stage victory in the 2014 Tour de France here in Paris. He doesn’t have the top speed of Marcel Kittel, but he was runner-up to Mark Cavendish in the final stage of the 2012 Tour, and given his talent and tendency to position himself well for the charge to the line, he can never be counted out.

OPQS’s Mark Renshaw knows how to deliver a result on the Champs-Élysées, even though in the past his biggest successes have been all about providing an excellent leadout to someone else. This year, he’ll have a rare chance to be the featured rider on the final stage of the Tour, and he’s shown impressive speed in this race so far. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare has struggled to make it to the finish with the lead group in many of the sprint days in this race, but the journey to the line is quite short on this stage. If he’s there in the final few hundred meters, he could be in the mix. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has racked up quite a few Top 10s so far in the Tour, and as a star of the track, he’ll enjoy the chance for a drag race to the line.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, OGE’s Michael Albasini, and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin are outsiders who could land strong results on Stage 21, while Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will be ready to step up for his team as a quality alternative should anything happen to Marcel Kittel.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VeloHuman Facebook page.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 26, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20 (ITT): Bergerac › Périgueux – 54 km

Following the victory of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas on Stage 19, there are only two days of racing left in the 2014 Tour de France. Stage 20 is the Tour’s only time trial. A chrono in the penultimate stage of the race might have been an epic final battle for the yellow jersey, but Vincenzo Nibali has that pretty much wrapped up. The remaining steps on the podium, however, are still in play, and a fierce fight will rage between three riders for those two spots. Stage honors are obviously up for grabs as well.

At 54 kilometers, this is quite a long time trial. The stage has a rolling profile from start to finish, but there are no categorized climbs on the docket; these are not challenging ascents, and they won’t offer much solace to the climbing specialists. The intermittent descents will be taken at pretty high speed, but the route is not terribly technical, which most of the riders will appreciate given a possibility for a bit of rain.

It’s the sort of time trial that favors the high-endurance riders, and one stands head and shoulders above the rest in this race. Reigning ITT World Champ Tony Martin will be the big favorite for the stage. He’s obviously a massive talent, but he’s also in stellar shape right now. On this long course, one tailored towards the real power specialists, it would be a big surprise for anyone to outmatch the German on Stage 20.

Tom Dumoulin is a great young talent, yet another rising star on the Giant-Shimano roster. The 2014 Dutch National Champion can handle a roller or two, making this a nice route for him. He was 2nd to Tony Martin in both time trials in this year’s Tour de Suisse. This chrono is a bit longer than those in which he’s been most successful in the past, but in the absence of many other top specialists against the clock, he’s a contender behind the heavy favorite, Tony Martin.

It’s been some time since Tejay van Garderen has put in a truly stellar time trial, but this has typically been a strong suit of his, and he looks to be on good form now. He should be able to land a top result.

Jean-Christophe Peraud has always been great against the clock, and in the shape he’s in at the moment, he will be another favorite among the GC contenders. Crashing during a rainy time trial ruined his 2013 Tour campaign; hopefully he can overcome that challenge this year.

Vincenzo Nibali has had a lot of success in time trials recently, and the way he’s been riding in this Tour, he’s likely to continue that run of great results. It’s a nice course for him, with a few hills and a chance to shine on the descents. He has shown a desire to assert his dominance at every possible opportunity in the Tour de France, and I don’t think he’ll make an exception on Stage 20.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS is not showing the sort of form in this Tour that he displayed early in the season, but in a time trial, all he needs is one good hour in the saddle. At his best he’s an elite chrono talent. The profile suits him perfectly, and he won’t mind a bit of rain either.

Sylvain Chavanel of IAM Cycling has not had a great year but he is the reigning French National Champ in the discipline. This stage is a big target for him. OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, OGE’s Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, Sky’s Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Vasil Kiryienka, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers, NetApp-Endura’s Jan Barta, and Movistar’s Ion Izagirre are others who could put in strong rides on Stage 20.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is not known for his time trialing skills, but he’s been strong against the clock this year, and on this form (and with the benefit of being able to gauge his efforts against almost every other rider, courtesy of starting late in the day) he could surprise some people. Alejandro Valverde, Spain’s National Champ in the ITT, is a good chrono rider, but he can’t afford to underestimate Pinot’s ability if he wants to stand on the podium in Paris.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Tom Dumoulin

There are only two stages left in this year’s Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of both of them, and of every WorldTour race left on the calendar. Also, check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 20.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 25, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Maubourguet Pays du Val d’Adour › Bergerac – 208.5 km

Vincenzo Nibali closed out the final high mountain stage of the Tour de France with his fourth stage win, and now the peloton heads to flatter roads. At first glance, Stage 19 looks certain to be one for the sprinting heavyweights, with a mostly flat profile from start to finish. However, there could be a few complicating factors. For one, 208.5 kilometers of racing is no walk in the park. A long day, especially after some very intense climbing, could lead to some pained legs. At the end of this lengthy journey, the peloton must get over a few uncategorized bumps and then a Category 4 climb that comes about 13 km from the finish. It’s short at only 1.3 kilometers, but steep, with an average gradient of 7.6%. And, while the last few kilometers are flat, there are some twists and turns approaching the finish line. On top of these challenges, there is a chance of rain in the forecast, which always adds an element of uncertainty to the equation.

On this profile, the sprinters’ teams should be able to control the race on Stage 19, and with a bunch gallop the likeliest outcome, Marcel Kittel, the fastest fast man in the Tour, has to be a top favorite. Giant-Shimano came here to win on the flats, and the entire team will be working to put Kittel in position to win a sprint finale. In a straight-up drag race, he’s pretty much unbeatable. As we saw on Stage 15, however, a combination of factors like distance and weather can take its toll on the heavy German. The Cat. 4 comes far enough from the finish that it shouldn’t cause too many problems for Kittel, but if the teams of the more versatile sprinters set a hard pace over the ascent and drive it all the way to the tricky final few kilometers, it’s possible that Kittel could have trouble getting into position for the charge to the line. GSH has a great backup plan in John Degenkolb, who has looked sharp in the past few sprint stages, and who is less likely to be troubled by the bumps in the road.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel is a bit more capable of coping with the harder days than Marcel Kittel, and at his best, he has a finishing kick few can match. Still, his endurance will be put to the test if teams like Cannondale and Katusha decide to go full gas as the day nears its conclusion. Greipel does have the support of a strong leadout, which will be crucial for the technical run-in to the line.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff took a strong second victory on Stage 15, which, though it was bit longer, shared similarities with this stage, a lengthy journey coming after some tough days in the mountains. Kristoff thrives in nasty weather, and his pair of wins in this Tour have put his impressive top speed on display. Stage 19 will be a good opportunity for him to pick up a third victory.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan has come so close so many times in this Tour de France, but he has yet to pick up the win he’s been hunting. The likely sprint finale on the Champs-Élysées, which will come at the end of a much easier day in the saddle, will be less favorable to Sagan; this is the better opportunity to get that victory. Like Kristoff, he’ll hope for the hardest race possible. He is very adept at navigating challenging corners, and that gives him an edge in the final few kilometers of the race.

Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Albasini, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare are other fast men with the potential to get involved. Mark Renshaw has placed well in the sprints so far, though OPQS could favor the chances of Matteo Trentin here; it’s also possible they’ll try to send Jan Bakelants, Michal Kwiatkowski, Niki Terpstra, or Tony Martin up the road and hope the tricky finale makes for a difficult chase. After so many tough mountains stages and with a crucial time trial on the menu for the GC men, it’s not completely out of the question that a well-planned move might be able to hold out here on Stage 19. Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Tommy Voeckler, Jens Keukeleire, and Sylvain Chavanel are other strong riders who might have this sort of tactic in mind.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

There are only a few stages left in the 2014 Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of every one of them. Also check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 19.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 24, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Pau › Hautacam – 145.5 km

After Rafal Majka’s victorious charge up the Pla d’Adet climb, only one mountain stage remains in the 2014 Tour de France. It’s another very short stage at only 145.5 kilometers, but the profile is daunting. Following a mostly flat first half with only a pair of short Cat. 3s to challenge them, the peloton will reach the foot of one of cycling’s most iconic climbs: the Col du Tourmalet. 17.1 kilometers at 7.3%, the Tourmalet is a mammoth ascent with nowhere to hide, especially after the first 5 kilometers, when things really kick upward (above 8%) and stay there for most of the remainder of the climb. The unforgiving slopes of the Tourmalet will blow the pack apart, but the summit is crested with 50 km still remaining on the stage; from there, it’s a very long, high-speed descent to the bottom of the Hautacam climb. 13.6 kilometers at a 7.8% average gradient, Hautacam has a particularly nasty midsection, with a lengthy stretch above 11%, the perfect launching pad for anyone hoping to put in one last mountain attack in this Tour de France.

Stage 18 is the final chance for the climbers to make their mark on this race. To this point, the hard mountain stages have been dominated by a select group of riders; Vincenzo Nibali and Tinkoff-Saxo have left little glory for the other uphill specialists in the Tour. Hopefully, this last opportunity for glory will provide some very exciting racing. The pack will move at a high speed on such a short stage, and the fight to get out front early will be fierce. The breakaway will have a shot at staying ahead all day, but only if it is composed of some real uphill strength; the GC contenders will most likely set a furious pace up these climbs.

The top favorite for victory on the final Hors Categorie climb of the Tour de France is the race’s best climber, Vincenzo Nibali. He already has three wins to his name, but taking a fourth victory on the last mountain stage of the Tour, and possibly even the polka dot jersey, would really accentuate his utter dominance of this race. He wants the 2014 Tour de France to be remembered as Vincenzo Nibali’s race, not as the race won by Nibali after the abandonment of Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. With a flat day on the horizon and such a comfortable lead, there isn’t much reason not to go full gas on Stage 18, and if the GC men sweep up the day’s break before the Hautacam summit finish, Nibali will obviously be the one to beat for stage honors.

AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud has made his mark over the last few stages as one of the only riders capable of holding Nibali’s wheel when the road goes up. He has an excellent team around him, and he’s just 8 seconds off the podium. Given his strong time trialing ability, 2nd overall may be within his reach. He will be highly motivated, and the day’s two long climbs suit him well. If the GC riders are at the head of the race as the end of the day nears, and if Peraud sees a chance at the stage win, he’s going to go for it: he has had a lot of success in the last few years, notching several high placings in big races, but he’s never actually won a race at the WorldTour level. He’s on the form of his life right now, and this could be his best chance to take that win. I also expect his teammate Romain Bardet to be aggressive on Stage 18, with the fight for the young rider’s classification so close right now. He hasn’t looked as strong as Peraud these past few days, but anything can happen on this final opportunity for the climbers to make their mark.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is Bardet’s main rival for the white jersey. He is also holding onto a very tenuous podium position at the moment. His descending woes appear to be behind him, which is important given the long descent from the summit of the Tourmalet, but he’ll need to put in a top-notch performance going uphill as well if he wants to keep his spot in the Top 3. He is in excellent shape right now and another good day seems likely. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is in a similar position: his 2nd overall is threated by a charging Jean-Christophe Peraud, and he’ll need to be at the top of his game to stay where he is on the leaderboard. He struggled on the early slopes of the Pla d’Adet climb, but recovered nicely to finish with Pinot’s group. Unlike those challenging him for his spot on the podium, Valverde has a lot of experience protecting a Top 3 overall position on the final climbs of a Grand Tour. He also has a stellar support squad. If he draws on all of that experience and all of that support, he could be in for a strong day.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen put in a much stronger performance on Stage 17 than he had on the stage prior, and with that bad day behind him he can look for another nice result here; he’s been a bit more aggressive on the climbs this year than we’ve seen in the past. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam both looked okay on the Pla d’Adet and despite being 7th and 8th overall, respectively, they could have some freedom to get up the road given the huge time gap between themselves and those higher up the leaderboard. The same is true for Leopold Konig, in 9th, who, despite having a bad day on Stage 17, has otherwise looked very impressive on the climbs in this Tour de France. In 10th but well out of contention time-wise, Pierre Rolland is nonthreatening enough that he may even be allowed into the early move again. He will be coming off a long day spent out front already, but he’s recovered from tough mountain stages a bit better than you might expect for a rider who has already taken on the Giro this year, and his aggressive style and experience will come in handy on these climbs.

The success or failure of the breakaway will depend largely on the caliber of climbers in the move. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka is one of the highest caliber climbers in the race, but it’s hard to say whether he’ll try to get out front early here. He took the stage victory and a massive collection of KOM points at the summit of the Pla d’Adet, but unfortunately for his polka dot ambitions, Vincenzo Nibali wasn’t far behind, and the race leader is still well within striking distance of the KOM jersey that Majka currently wears. The young Polish climber will need to play Stage 18 just right to keep that jersey. He could get into the break, but having already spent a long day up the road, it’s a lot to ask to go for more long-distance success here; he put in a nice performance on the Chamrousse climb with a late attack after sticking in the pack, and that will be an option on Stage 18 as well. Whatever he decides, Majka will be again be a favorite for stage honors. If Majka doesn’t go up the road, Tinkoff-Saxo may send Michael Rogers in search of a second stage win. When so many familiar breakaway protagonists tried for the long-distance strike on Stage 17, Rogers hung with the pack, and with the energy he saved there, he’s one of the few who might have a chance at winning Stage 18 from afar. Nicolas Roche, who had such a strong ride up the Pla d’Adet, is another long-range option for Tinkoff-Saxo.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez saw his KOM hopes take a huge hit on the Pla d’Adet, where it was all too clear that he’s still not at his best. However, he has shown enough ability to be considered a dangerous contender if he can get into the breakaway. Even well off his peak form, Purito’s experience alone is enough to keep him in the conversation. More than most, he knows how to win mountain stages in Grand Tours, and as hard as it will be to win this stage with a long-distance strike, Joaquim Rodriguez can’t be counted out. Yuri Trofimov is another option for Katusha.

Sky’s Mikel Nieve spent most of Stage 17 in the bunch and he could be in the hunt from the breakaway on Stage 18, with Geraint Thomas, Richie Porte, and David Lopez as early move alternatives for the team. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler is another potential long-range protagonist who will be coming off a quiet day. Christophe Riblon, Brice Feillu, Jose Serpa, Chris Horner, Jurgen Van Den Broeck (now almost three minutes outside the Top 10), Alessandro De Marchi, Giovanni Visconti, Steven Kruijswijk, Beñat Intxausti, Ion Izagirre, Frank Schleck, and Haimar Zubeldia are others who might have a chance at stage glory if they launch from afar.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Jean-Christophe Peraud | 3. Rafal Majka

There are only a few stages left in the 2014 Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of every one of them. Also check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 18.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 23, 2014