Stage 5: Ypres › Arenberg Porte du Hainaut – 155.5 km
Though Marcel Kittel’s unsurprising victory in a bunch sprint might suggest that the Tour’s fourth stage was an uneventful one, Chris Froome, Bauke Mollema, Niki Terpstra, and a number of Lotto Belisol leadout men were among the many riders to hit the deck on the day. Unfortunately for them, there will not be much time to recover from any injuries they may have sustained in their crashes, as one of the Tour’s most anticipated and potentially dangerous days awaits. Stage 5 is unique among the twenty-one stages of the Tour de France in that it features several stretches of cobbled roads. While the profile may be mostly flat, the peloton must overcome nine cobbled sectors, which begin at around the 87 km mark and then appear intermittently most of the way to the finish. Some of them are particularly difficult: Stage 5 includes visits to many of the most famous challenges ridden in the spring’s Paris-Roubaix, including sections of the Carrefour de l’Arbre and the Mons-en-Pévèle. The penultimate cobbled sector, Wandignies-Hamage à Hornaing, is the day’s longest at 3.7 km, and it comes less than 20 km from the finish. On top of the tough parcours, it may rain, which would make things even more hectic.
On cobbles as difficult as these, punctures and mechanicals could wreak havoc on the peloton, threatening to end the GC hopes of those unfortunate enough to hit trouble. Most of those GC riders are particularly light, and therefore, even more susceptible to being bounced around on the bumpy roads. While they are holding on for dear life, a different group of riders will be locked in to hunt the stage victory. The stars of the spring Classics will have a rare opportunity to shine in a Grand Tour on Stage 5, and on their favored terrain they’re certain to make this an interesting race. A constant flow of attacks and counter-attacks is likely. Excellent bike handling skills and the ability to keep up with repeated accelerations getting into position for each cobbled sector will be crucial, just as they are in the Spring. It is important to note, however, that Stage 5 is nowhere near the length of Paris-Roubaix. At 155.5 kilometers, the bumpy road to the finish line will not wear out the pack in just the same way that more than 250 km of racing would.
As such, while the powerful, aggressive classics stars will certainly feature prominently on Stage 5, the day is simply not difficult enough for a successful attack by a cobblestone specialist to be the only likely outcome. The cobbles will whittle down the peloton, but it is possible that this ends in a reduced sprint among the more capable quick men. With the outcome so difficult to predict, there is no clear favorite, though there are several riders who should be considered strong contenders.
Fabian Cancellara is an obvious candidate to make a move on the cobbles. The three-time Paris-Roubaix winner had another excellent spring campaign in 2014 and he has looked good so far in this race. With so many teams focused on getting their GC leader safely to the finish, Cancellara could put in a dig from far out and remain solo all the way to the line; he certainly seems to be the likeliest candidate for an escape victory. What sets him apart here from the many classics-specialists here is his varied toolset; he is much more than a cobbled specialist, with soloing ability almost unrivaled in the peloton and a decent finishing kick as well, should he come to the line with a group. As this stage is not as long or as difficult as the spring classics, that broad toolset could be pivotal.
BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet is always a likely attacker on difficult roads, and he has the extra-motivation of being well-positioned on GC; a small gap to those around him on the leaderboard could put him into yellow. Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke is another of the classics specialists who will hope to get away; he has made a name for himself with terrific cobbled performances over the last two years, though victories in the biggest races have eluded him, as he has often found himself just behind Fabian Cancellara at the finish line. This will be a nice opportunity. Teammate Lars Boom will be a powerful ally and potential alternative; he’s strong on the cobbles but also very quick in a finish if he needs to be.
Niki Terpstra of OPQS, winner of the 2014 Paris-Roubaix, will hopefully be feeling up for some aggressive riding the day after a crash. Jens Keukeleire and Matt Hayman of Orica-GreenEdge make a nice 1-2 for the cobbles, and OGE knows how to get off the front of the pack on a tough day. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts and possibly Tony Gallopin, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, Garmin’s Johan Van Summeren and Sebastian Langeveld, Katusha’s Luca Paolini, and possibly even Sky’s Geraint Thomas are other potential aggressors who know their way around a cobbled parcours.
I think the long-distance attacker types will be most concerned not with each other, but with the potential for some of the more versatile sprinters to survive to the finish. Peter Sagan is more than capable of handling cobbled roads, and he is the first pick of the fast men who might be able to hold on for a sprint finish. He has finished in the Top 6 of every cobbled classic on the WorldTour calendar already in his young career. His biggest challenge in his spring campaigns has been the particularly long races, and he won’t have to worry about that here. He’s also capable of putting in a solo move of his own. I think he will have an excellent chance to pick up his first 2014 Tour de France victory on Stage 5.
John Degenkolb, winner of this year’s Gent-Wevelgem and 2nd in Paris-Roubaix, will also have his sights set on this stage victory. If he can get those sorts of results in the more difficult spring races, he should have a great opportunity for more success here. Given the parcours, Giant-Shimano should back his ambitions over Marcel Kittel‘s on Stage 5, and that bodes well for Degenkolb’s chances. He has looked very fast all year, and although he didn’t win any stages in the recent Tour of California, he was inches away from besting Mark Cavendish twice. If he can stay at the front of affairs and if this stage does come down to a sprint, that sort of speed will make Degenkolb a top contender.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, constantly among the top sprinters in the spring in the past two years, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, 2nd at the 2014 edition of Gent-Wevelgem, could also be there at the end. Both showed off excellent speed in the Stage 4 finish behind Marcel Kittel.
IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler isn’t the rider he once was, but he has put up some decent results in the sprints here so far. Garmin’s versatile Ramunas Navardauskas, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, and Trek’s Danny van Poppel will try their best to hold on to the end. OPQS’s Michal Kwiatkowski is always a name worth mentioning on a difficult day that could end in a reduced sprint; his team will be doing their best to keep him as close to the front as possible anyway. It’s not completely out of the question that Andre Greipel hangs on to the line, but it seems unlikely, especially if it rains.
As the battle for stage supremacy rages around them, the lightweight GC riders will be doing their best to stay upright. This is a stage that could end a contender’s yellow jersey hopes in an instant. Whatever happens, Stage 5 should offer plenty of drama. It’s not one to miss.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Fabian Cancellara
Stage 4: Le Touquet-Paris-Plage › Lille – 163.5 km
The Tour de France closed out its visit to England in style, with a sprint finale on The Mall won, somewhat predictably, by Marcel Kittel. Now, the Tour heads home to France. While the locale maybe changing, the profile is staying mostly the same for Stage 4; another flat stage is on tap. Two Cat. 4 climbs, one early in the day and one coming with more than 40 km remaining, are the only categorized uphill challenges on the menu. It is more than likely that the 163.5 km Stage 4 will be another for the sprinters.
Marcel Kittel remains the class of the sprinting bunch. It’s hard for anyone to come close to the young German star, given his deadly combination of being the fastest rider here and having the best leadout train in the race. He won the Tour’s third stage easily and he will be the favorite again for what looks to be an uncomplicated Stage 4.
Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel was out of position in the Stage 3 finale and, therefore, we still haven’t really had an opportunity to see him matched up against compatriot Kittel at the finish line. Lotto does have a very good leadout but they have not been in the best position when it’s really mattered in the two sprint stages the Tour has offered so far. I still see Greipel as Kittel’s main challenger, though, and if he and his team can get it right for Stage 4, Kittel may actually have some competition on his hands.
Peter Sagan remains my third favorite for the sprints. For whatever reason, a number of observers feel the need to point out on every flat stage that pure sprints aren’t really his thing, which is far from the truth. He may not have the top speed of Kittel or Greipel, but behind those two riders, he is probably the best sprinter here, with plenty of victories on pan flat stages in his career. His versatility seems to make people forget that he is, in fact, elite in the bunch sprints, extremely fast and also adept at positioning himself. Those abilities have allowed him to come in 2nd to Kittel on two of the three stages in this race so far; he was right behind Kittel but well ahead of everyone else in London. Should his German rivals hit misfortune or find themselves out of position, Sagan will have a great opportunity to take a win on Stage 4.
Europcar’s Bryan Coquard now has a pair of 4th places to his name in this Tour de France. He still needs to improve his positioning and he does not have a lot of leadout support, but he is finally starting to deliver on the promise he has been showing at the lower levels.
FDJ’s Arnaud Demare is a very talented sprinter but he is apparently suffering from wrist pain. If he can get back to 100%, he’ll be a top contender again. For all his success this year, Alexander Kristoff has hit misfortune surprisingly often. He was slowed by the crash on Stage 1 and had to expend energy in the third stage to overcome a late mechanical. He has the speed to be considered a strong challenger in the sprints when things go right for him. Mark Renshaw was a very impressive 3rd on The Mall, taking advantage of a rare opportunity to sprint for himself. He benefits from the strong OPQS leadout and should continue to put up nice results on the flat days. Trek’s Danny van Poppel, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas will again hope to play spoiler to the bigger favorites, and Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb remains an excellent alternative for his team in the event that Kittel hits trouble along the way to the finish.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan
A pancake-flat Stage 3 will be a welcome change for the peloton after a day of challenging climbs that dropped the big name sprinters early and allowed Vincenzo Nibali to attack a tired lead group in the final kilometer for the stage win. On the third day of the Tour de France, the peloton travels from Cambridge to London without a single categorized climb on the menu, and at 155 kilometers, it’s won’t be a particularly long ride either. While the motivation to get out in front of the pack for some TV time will be very high on the Tour’s final day in England, anything but a sprint finish on this profile would be a big surprise. Still, after the race enters London, things get a bit technical on the way to the finishing straight on The Mall; there is a pair of right-hand turns within the final kilometer where things could get hectic. The fight to get positioned for the closing moments of Stage 3 will be fierce, and anyone with hopes of winning this stage will have to brave a dangerous stretch at the head of the pack at the end of the day.
With Mark Cavendish out of the race following his opening stage crash, Marcel Kittel‘s hold on the title of sprinter favorite becomes that much stronger. His leadout train took their time to get set up on Stage 1, but when it mattered they put Kittel at the front and in position win the day. With that leadout, and his elite ability and form, he is the man to beat on Stage 3. Unfortunately, the carnage on Day 1 robbed us of the opportunity to see Kittel matched up at full speed against the rider who is his only likely rival in this type of stage, Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel. Though the aforementioned crash in Harrogate did not bring Greipel down, it did slow him enough to take him out of contention. He has another chance here. He has certainly looked strong in the past few weeks, taking the German National Championship against Kittel’s teammate Degenkolb, but beating Kittel himself will be a tall order. If anyone can do it, however, it’s Andre Greipel; behind the two German stars there is a clear dropoff in sprinting ability to the next few contenders.
Nevertheless, anything can happen with this technical finish, and there are several other fast men who will be gunning for this one just as hard as the two favorites. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is obviously one of those contenders. He was a strong 2nd to Kittel on the opening stage, and after allowing a great opportunity for a victory to get away from him in the final moments of Stage 2, he will be hungry for another shot at a win, and certainly for more Green Jersey points, here on Stage 3. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has looked impressive at both the finish line and in the intermediate sprints so far, and he will look for more success here. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare and Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff should place highly. Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, Lampre’s Maximiliano Richeze (Sacha Modolo has unfortunately abandoned the race with a fever), and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin will hope to get into the mix. As usual, Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will become a strong contender if anything should happen to team leader Marcel Kittel. Omega Pharma-Quick Step is in an interesting situation: they still have an excellent leadout even though they are missing their top sprinter. Whomever they decide to put forward for the sprint, Alessandro Petacchi or Mark Renshaw, or even Matteo Trentin or Michal Kwiatkowski, he will have a strong support squad in the Stage 3 finale.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan
After a chaotic finale that saw Mark Cavendish and Simon Gerrans hit the deck very hard and Marcel Kittel ride on to win the day, the opening stage of the 2014 Tour de France is officially in the books. The excitement should continue on Stage 2, and hopefully for more positive reasons. As wild as the finish to the first stage was, for most of the day the riding was pretty tame, as a flat profile led to a mostly controlled journey, but things will be quite different on the second stage. Undulating is too gentle a word for the profile. With seven categorized climbs in the final 90 kilometers, all of them at 6% or greater, and a few uncategorized ascents climb to boot, Stage 2 has the look of an Ardennes Classic. The last four categorized ascents come in quick succession, closing out with the Jenkin Road climb with just 5 kilometers remaining. It is only 800 meters long but at a wicked 10.8% average grade. The barrage of late uphill tests are sure to inspire attacks. And while it obviously isn’t as long as Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it is the second longest stage in the first two weeks of the race at 201 kilometers; anyone still searching for Grand Tour form could get worn down and found out early. The high mountains may still be a ways off, but Stage 2’s journey from York to Sheffield should offer plenty of fireworks.
Given the profile, it seems likely that the stage will come down to either a late attack, or a sprint among the day’s survivors. As early as it is in the Tour de France, the former will be hard-earned, as the GC squads will be determined to deny any opportunists a chance to get ahead. However things play out, the explosive, well-rounded types with the versatility to win either in a late move or from a reduced sprint will be the favorites for victory.
Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will be the top favorite for Stage 2. Unlike most of his sprinting rivals, he should be able to handle the constant up-and-down, and he has the ability to win the day with an aggressive strike or from a sprint. This stage looks made for his versatile array of talents, and he proved in the Tour de Suisse and again in the first stage that he’s on excellent all-around form right now.
Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans is another top contender, for many of the same reasons, with the biggest question mark being his health following his crash. The 2014 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner relishes a profile like this, with plenty of opportunities to attack, or at least to whittle down the pack. An excellent puncheur, he will be one of the most dangerous men in the peloton if he does decide to make a late move, but don’t underestimate his sprint either: he actually defeated Sagan in a reduced sprint in the 2013 Tour de France. Unfortunately, his hard fall near the Harrogate finish line will cloud his chances for Stage 2; it’s hard to know how well he will feel after such a bad crash. Teammate Michael Albasini could be another option, especially as a card to play on the late climbs.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, one of the most successful Ardennes riders of his generation, is an obvious choice here; for him, motivation could be the determining factor. While he, too, could contend for Stage 2 in a variety of ways, he may be more concerned with staying safe for GC. If he does decide to get into the mix, he will be a strong candidate for victory.
Behind Gerrans and Valverde at Liege-Bastogne-Liege was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. He has all the tools for success, but his form is questionable right now. If he’s feeling good, he will be a contender. GC riders other than Valverde and Kwiatkowski who could find themselves among the favorites if the pack really starts to thin out include Bauke Mollema and Rui Costa.
The difficult profile, and the likelihood of an animated race, will probably be too much for “pure” sprinters Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. (Mark Cavendish may be out of the race with a shoulder injury after his crash; even if he makes the start it seems unlikely that he’ll be capable of contending). Obviously if one of the big sprinters is there at the finish, he will be a favorite, but it will be a big ask. Kittel’s teammate John Degenkolb, however, leads a select group of non-Sagan sprinters who at least have a chance of surviving the difficult day. Also in this group are Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare and, to a lesser extent, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff and Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo. I wouldn’t really call him a sprinter, but fast-finishing Ramunas Navardauskas (3rd on the opening stage) could excel in a reduced sprint as well.
Quite a few riders stand out as potential protagonists for late attacks. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler, and, if he is feeling up to it, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez will like the short, steep challenges that Stage 2 has to offer. Fabian Cancellara, Sylvain Chavanel, Greg Van Avermaet, Jan Bakelants, and Geraint Thomas are all strong soloists with the climbing legs to put in a long distance strike.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Simon Gerrans | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski
The long wait for the Grand Départ of the 2014 Tour de France is over, and that means it’s time for the Stage 1 Preview as well! In case you missed the overall race preview, you can find it here. As a note: I’ll be previewing every stage of the race, all the way to the Champs-Élysées, so you can check back every day for stage profiles and picks. You can also follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race.
The opening stage of the 101st Tour is a mostly flat trip through Yorkshire. The peloton will take on a Category 4 climb and then a pair of Cat. 3s in the middle of the stage, but the bumps in the road aren’t likely to trouble anyone. 50 kilometers of generally flat roads lead into the finish, practically guaranteeing that this will be a stage for the sprinters. There is a roundabout with around 2 kilometers to go, but after that it’s a pretty straight shot to the line, meaning that the fast men will be truly flying in the final few moments. Though the high speed run-in to the finish will make it hard to tell that the riders are on a slope, the road does kick uphill a bit over the last kilometer.
The Tour de France quite often starts with a time trial, essentially denying the sprinters any opportunity to wear the yellow jersey during the race, but when things kick off with a mass-start road stage instead, the competition for a day in the sport’s most recognizable piece of clothing is fierce. The opening few days of a Grand Tour are already frenzied enough, and with riders going all out for the maillot jaune while they still have a shot, it could get hectic out there.
Given the profile, it seems likely that this stage and the coveted prize on offer will come down to a shootout between the sport’s three fastest sprinters: Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Mark Cavendish, and Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel.
I see Kittel and Cavendish as neck and neck on this one, with Greipel close behind. Kittel’s performance in last year’s Tour de France established him as sprinting’s new top man, and he’s followed up with some nice victories this year. He was head and shoulders above the competition in the Giro d’Italia before abandoning with illness. Of particular interest in his limited time in that race was his Stage 3 victory, in which he closed a ridiculous gap in the final hundred meters to overcome a serious positioning deficit and take the win. It showed just how strong he is this year even when things don’t really go as planned for his team; that strength is all the more fearsome when Giant-Shimano’s awesome leadout squad hits their mark, and they usually do. Koen de Kort, Tom Veelers, Roy Curvers, and the extremely-fast John Degenkolb make for a stellar train, and they all work very well together. In what is likely to be a very high speed finale, Kittel will be hard to beat on Stage 1.
Mark Cavendish will be going full gas to win this stage and the yellow jersey on British roads, and he is Kittel’s chief opponent. On paper, his leadout should be quite strong, but they haven’t really put it all together yet this year. Still, Cav has taken several nice wins this season to show that he’s on form, and unlike last year, there will be no question of post-Giro fatigue. I’m not sure his top-end speed matches Kittel’s but the slight uphill gradient may be more favorable to the Manx Missile, who is considerably lighter than his chief rival. Motivation will also be sky-high. These two should be neck and neck.
I think Andre Greipel’s chances are being a bit underrated by the bookies. Like Kittel, he benefits from a leadout that usually delivers him to the finish-line with machine-like precision. He will also be coming into this race with the confidence of having just won the German National Road Race Championship and a host of other victories all year. And despite his massive legs, Greipel has shown that he can succeed even on slight uphill gradients in the final few hundred meters. He should be a real contender for Stage 1.
After Stages 1 and 3, we should have a better idea of which of the big three is fastest right now, but until then, it’s hard to name a favorite of them with much certainty. There will also be a few other names in the mix, and given the increased likelihood for crashes on a hectic opening stage sprint, outsiders could find themselves battling for the win at a moment’s notice. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan generally seems locked in for the Top 5 on these sorts of stages but rarely actually contests the victory when Kittel, Cavendish, and Greipel are involved; however, the somewhat uphill finish will suit him nicely and it could give him an edge. The same is true for FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, who is on fire right now. It’s possible that Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb finds himself sprinting for the victory (if something happens to Kittel, or if, for whatever reason, his team decides to back him instead), and in that scenario, Degenkolb will be very dangerous here as well. Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo took his first WorldTour win in the Tour de Suisse last month and this finish suits him perfectly. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas will be fringe contenders. Michael Matthews, unfortunately, suffered a training crash this week and his Tour start is now in doubt. Even if he does make the start, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to be in the mix while still recovering; however, Orica-GreenEdge teammate Simon Gerrans could try his luck with this finish.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Andre Greipel
After months of buildup and weeks of tune-up races, the main event is upon us. We’ve gone a few days without any WorldTour racing (though hopefully you have had a chance to enjoy the VeloHuman Up-and-comer Q&A Series in the meantime), but the 2014 Tour de France finally kicks off in Leeds on Saturday, July 5th. As usual, in addition to the overall preview, VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the race. You can find all of those stage previews here. Also, you can follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the Tour.
The Route
The route of this year’s Tour de France is an intriguing one: in keeping with recent editions, the 101st Tour de France waits a full week to throw any serious mountains at the peloton, but there are some real challenges on the menu before the road reaches high altitudes. The first stage of the race is a mostly flat affair through Yorkshire that is likely to end in a sprint. The second stage may not have high mountains, but with nine categorized climbs on the docket, including an 800 meter, 10.8% bump just 5 kilometers before the finish line, it should be a thrillfest, and the GC contenders will need to be alert. Stage 3, the Tour’s last day in England, is another likely day for the sprinters, and the also mostly flat Stage 4 will probably end in the same way. Stage 5, however, will be one of the most intriguing of this year’s Tour de France.
Nine cobbled sections will pose a tough challenge to the lightweight GC contenders on Stage 5.
To add excitement to the 101st edition of the race, the organizers added a cobbled stage that will travel over some of the same challenging terrain that features in spring’s Paris-Roubaix. The Tour stage isn’t as long as the Monument Classic, but the route travels over sections of the Carrefour and Mons-en-Pévèle and plenty of other difficult sectors, and the bumpy roads could bounce the lightweight GC types all over the road. It will be a white-knuckle ride all the way to the finish, and attacks will be coming hot and heavy from classics specialists given the rare chance to shine on their favored terrain in the Tour de France.
Stage 6 is flat enough to be a likely sprinters’ target. Stage 7 is mostly flat as well, but a few late bumps could put the heavier sprinters under pressure. The peloton finally hits a real uphill finish on Stage 8, though time gaps should be small, as the closing climb up the Gerardmer is less than 2 kilometers long. Stage 9 includes some tough climbs, including a Cat. 1 ascent; it could be a day for the breakaway or for the versatile fast-finisher types, with a mostly flat final 20 kilometers, but GC attacks aren’t out of the question. However, the overall contenders may opt to save energy for Stage 10, which will throw tough ascents at the peloton all day long.
Stage 10 will be a roller coaster ride of tough climbs and difficult descents, offering plenty of opportunities for attacks to go free.
At 161.5 kilometers, Stage 10 is not particularly long, but four Cat. 1 climbs and a few smaller ascents stand between the riders and the finish line. For most of the day, the riders will be facing tough climbing or tricky descending, and that is likely to encourage aggressive riding, especially with a rest day to follow. After the day off, Stage 11 is a bumpy one but it probably won’t have GC implications. The same is true for Stage 12.
The Tour heads to the Alps for its first real high mountain test on Stage 13. An HC-rated finish awaits. Stage 14 will not offer respite, starting with a very long Cat. 1, followed by the 19 kilometer, 6% average grade Hors Categorie climb up the Col d’Izoard, and then ending with a Cat. 1 climb to Risoul. The peloton will be glad for the flat day on Stage 15, as well as the rest day that follows.
On Stage 18, the final mountain stage of the 2014 Tour de France, the riders must overcome both the Col du Tourmalet and a Hautacam summit finish.
Stage 16 is the first of three days in the Pyrenees, and will challenge the riders with a late HC-rated climb followed by a little over 20 kilometers downhill to the finish line. Stage 17 is tougher, with three Cat. 1 climbs on the way to an Hors Categorie summit finish. Stage 18 will be the last chance for the climbers to pick up time, and what a chance it will be: the pack will climb the fearsome Col du Tourmalet, zoom down the other side, and then ascend to Hautacam and the finish line.
Stage 20’s race against the clock is a very long one at 54 kilometers. Gaps between the GC riders will be significant.
A mostly flat Stage 19 will allow the GC contenders to recharge before taking on the decisive time trial on Stage 20. It’s a long one at 54 kilometers, and it could seriously shake up the General Classification. The parcours is hilly, which will offer some consolation to the climbers, but riders with big engines will have the advantage over this distance. The GC will be decided as the last rider crosses the line on Stage 20, with the classic Champs-Élysées sprint on tap for the twenty-first and final stage of the race.
All told, this year’s route may seem a bit more climber-friendly than those of recent years, but a cobbled stage and a long time trial at the end of three tough weeks of racing will make a well-rounded skillset a requirement for victory. And although the high mountains don’t come until the middle stages of the Tour de France, some early challenges will keep everyone on their toes from the beginning of the race. It should be a thrilling ride all the way from Leeds to Paris.
The General Classification Contenders
The Tour de France is a long race, and the mountains and cobbles along the journey could shake things up at a moment’s notice, but in terms of the yellow jersey fight, there are two competitors who stand out as the clear favorites. Team Sky’s Chris Froome and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador are a cut above their opponents, climbing and time trialing in a league of their own and with powerful teams backing their bids for yellow. Between them however, things are very tight.
Froome was dominant in last year’s Tour de France, and his convincing victory came after a dominant spring that saw him establish his supremacy across several races. Meanwhile, would-be top rival Alberto Contador never seemed to find his top level in the run-up to the 2013 Tour, and he was unable to get to that level during the race either. At least so far, 2014 has been a different story entirely. Alberto Contador has been the best GC rider in the sport, winning races like Tirreno-Adriatico (where he put his uphill wizardry on full display) and the Vuelta al Pais Vasco (where he flashed stellar chrono form) and carrying that good shape through June’s Criterium du Dauphine. He is a proven winner of the Tour de France who seems to have refound the ability he lacked in 2013. Meanwhile, Chris Froome has struggled to overcome hurdle after hurdle, as injury and illness have waylaid his plans throughout the year. That isn’t to say that he hasn’t flashed his brilliance here and there; he took victory in the Tour de Romandie and looked very sharp in the Dauphine prior to a crash. Still, compared to last year’s bulletproof campaign, this year has been a difficult one for the defending champion, which makes his grip on the title of pre-race favorite a more tenuous one.
If forced to pick a favorite, I’d still name Chris Froome (though I believe that his edge is razor-thin). The ability he has shown over the past year when at peak form is just impossible to ignore, and he has displayed enough strength when healthy in 2014 to at least maintain his position as pre-race favorite. He was clearly the better rider last year, and while his inability to dominate the early season this year raises questions, his many ailments have certainly played their part in slowing him down, and he appears healthy now. Richie Porte and Mikel Nieve are top-notch teammates for the climbs who could find themselves lurking at the fringes of the Top 10 in their own right, and Geraint Thomas and Vasil Kiryienka are powerful pace-setters on the hilly and flat days. Contador’s bid for victory, meanwhile, took a serious hit this past week when it was announced that star teammate Roman Kreuziger would not be riding in the Tour due to an ongoing investigaton into biological passport irregularities. Contador will no longer be able to enjoy the luxury of having last year’s 5th place overall finisher at his side. Replacement Rafal Majka is obviously also very talented but he will likely be fatigued after a hard Giro. Mick Rogers and Nicolas Roche, though excellent support riders, are also coming off the same tough Giro. In short, despite Contador’s stellar season, he will still have something to prove against the defending champion; regardless, I’ll reiterate that this should be a close fight and it’s extremely tough to call between these two stars right now.
Behind them is a pair of second-tier favorites who are themselves on a level above the rest of the GC hopefuls: Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali and Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde look to be the top contenders after Froome and Contador, and though victory will be a tall order for either of them, they should at least be seen as heavy favorites to fight it out for the final spot on the podium. Nibali had a brilliant 2013 campaign, winning the Giro d’Italia convincingly and taking runner-up honors in the Vuelta a España, but he has been unable to find as much success in stage races this year. Still, he proved in 2013 that at peak form he is one of the top climbers in the world, and a great descender and a master tactician to boot. He’ll have two weeks to ride himself into Grand Tour form, and it’s not as if 5th in the Tour de Romandie and 7th in the Dauphine are bad results, per se. And remember, Joaquim Rodriguez looked way off the pace in the 2013 Dauphine, finishing 16th, and went on to a Tour de France podium. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Nibali gets back to the top level before the race hits the mountains. Victory in the Italian road race championship was a good sign. This event is the focus of his season, and I expect him to be in his best shape of the year when the Tour gets into the mountains, and if he can reach his 2013 form, he could find himself battling Froome and Contador at the very top. He’ll also have one of the race’s finest teams backing him, with constant lieutenant and Top 10 finisher (and legitimate threat for a repeat Top 10) Jakob Fuglsang, veteran Michele Scarponi, and versatile Tanel Kangert at his side.
Alejandro Valverde, unlike Vincenzo Nibali, has been landing top results left and right all year. This is probably his last year as Movistar’s featured rider for the Tour, so motivation is high. Perhaps the one question mark in his stellar 2014 resume is the lack of recent results in top-level stage races. He eschewed the Dauphine and the Suisse in the run-up to the Tour, opting for the Route du Sud instead. He was strong there, but it’s hard to judge his form based on that race, given the lower level of competition. He was strong in Pais Vasco, but that was in April. It will be interesting to see how he goes in the Tour de France after well over two months away from WorldTour competition. With Ion Izagirre and the excellent Beñat Intxausti for support, he will have plenty of help, and his Spanish national championship-winning time trial form should come in handy as well. Given the sort of peak ability he has shown over the last few years, his strong team, and his knack for success in 2014, I expect him to be one of the last men standing as Froome and Contador ratchet up the pace on the steep climbs.
Garmin’s Andrew Talansky was already worthy of inclusion in the Top 10 conversation after landing 10th in last year’s Tour, but he solidified his presence in the discussion of outside contenders with his stellar Criterium du Dauphine. Though it may be tempting to write off his victory in that race to tactics alone, he would not have been in position to win the GC with his long-distance attack had he not put in strong performances throughout the race; he was sitting in 3rd place on GC before his daring move. Talansky has steadily improved as a climber over the past few years, and Garmin sends a great support squad to back his bid for the overall, with strong climber Janier Acevedo to help set the pace uphill and a number of other excellent teammates who thrive on the hilly days. Compatriot Tejay van Garderen will also be hunting a strong overall result, and he, too, is armed with ever-improving climbing skills. After a disappointing 2013 in which he seemed to take a step backward, he kicked off 2014 with renewed vigor. He was stellar in Catalunya, winning a mountain stage ahead of Contador, Purito, Froome, and others, and finishing 3rd overall on GC. However, a crash in the Tour de Romandie left him with a small hip fracture, which forced him to abandon that race and clearly slowed him in the Dauphine. Still, he certainly looked to be rounding into form as the Dauphine progressed and he has a dedicated BMC team backing him for a good GC result.
Belkin’s Bauke Mollema got off to a slow start in 2014, but he was climbing very well in the Tour de Suisse, and appears to be finding form just in time for his season’s biggest target. Given Belkin’s sponsorship woes, motivation is high, and Mollema should have it in him to fight for a strong GC result. Teammate Laurens Ten Dam is a valuable second.
Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck spent all of 2013 and much of this season hunting the form that put him into 4th place in the Tour de France in 2010 and 2012, and until June’s Criterium de Dauphine, he did not have much to show for his efforts. But his 3rd place in the Dauphine, earned with some top-notch climbing performances, put him right back into the Top 10 discussion, given the ability he has shown in the past. He won’t have much team support, but the parcours is in his favor, with only a single time trial stage. Like so many other outside contenders, he may find the podium a very difficult goal, but a Top 10 is within his reach.
A Top 10 may be well within the reach of World Champion Rui Costa as well, though it’s hard to know what to expect out of the talented Portuguese all-rounder given that this is his first time as a GC team leader in the Tour de France. Signs point to stellar form right now after his brilliant Tour de Suisse victory (and a host of other strong results this season that may have been overlooked in all the attention given to his lack of actual victories in the rainbow jersey). Of particular interest was his terrific time trial performance in the Suisse, where he was third to specialists Tony Martin and Tom Dumoulin in that race’s 24.7 km time trial seventh stage. Whether he has the consistency required to land a top GC result in a three-week race is unclear, but he certainly has all the tools to make him a good candidate. 2013 Vuelta winner Chris Horner makes for a stellar second, though his form is an unknown right now.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has not been having an excellent season results-wise, but he has not been bad either, with Top 10s in Pais Vasco, Romandie, and the Bayern Rundfahrt. He was a bit under the weather in the Tour de Suisse and never really mounted much of a challenge in that race, but he did put in a strong time trial on a parcours that did not seem to suit him. It was actually one of a number of strong chrono performances from the climbing star this year, and if he has indeed found an extra gear against the clock (and if he can get back to his peak form by the time the Tour hits the mountains), he’ll be a dangerous outsider.
AG2R’s Romain Bardet has continued to deliver impressive results in his young career, with several Top 10s in big races already in 2014. He’ll appreciate the hilly parcours. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud has had a very strong season so far and will be looking forward to the race after crashing out of last year’s edition while looking well-positioned for a strong result. 2013 Alpe d’Huez stage winner Christophe Riblon makes for yet another strong all-rounder for AG2R. Fellow French stars Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland of Europcar at least deserve a mention, but they may be chasing stage wins, with Voeckler generally unimpressive this year and Rolland coming off the Giro d’Italia (he was terrific in that race, but hunting for a strong result in the Tour de France GC after the Giro is probably too much to ask). Speaking of Giro participation and stage hunting, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez is on the startlist, but he has said that he is purely here for stage wins and as preparation for the Vuelta, as he is still recovering from his Giro crash. Earlier in the season there was talk of teammate Simon Spilak having support as a GC rider but Katusha seems to be more focused on stage wins now; Spilak won a stage in the Dauphine but he was a non-factor in the GC. He’s very talented but he has yet to make much of a run at Grand Tour GC success; Yuri Trofimov may be Katusha’s designated GC rider instead. Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step was one of the spring’s biggest stars, but he took a break from racing following the Tour de Romandie and since then he has not apperaed to be at the same level that he was at in March and April. However, the Polish rising star is a tough competitor and this is a big target of his season, so it would not be a surprise to see him back to top form by the time the GC race heats up. He’ll hope to improve on his 11th place in last year’s race. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank has delivered quite a few excellent performances in his first year with his new team and he is sporting an improved time trial this season. He’ll look for continued success here. Leopold Konig leads the GC charge for fellow wildcard invite NetApp-Endura. He was excellent in the 2013 Vuelta a España, landing in the Top 10 and winning a stage, but injury has hampered his 2014 campaign. He appeared to be rounding into form at the Dauphine, however, and his team has selected a Tour squad dedicated to his GC hopes (leaving VH Up-and-comer Q&A Series interviewee Sam Bennett off the startlist). A Top 10 is within Konig’s reach. Also on the fringes of GC contention are Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae and Trek’s Haimar Zubeldia and Frank Schleck (Andy appears to be riding in support of them).
The Stagehunters
As usual, the caliber of stagehunters in the Tour de France is very high, especially among the sprinters. With at least seven days very likely to end in bunch sprints, the sport’s elite sprinting trio of Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and Andre Greipel are in attendance. All of them have had success this year, but they have not faced each other on many occasions, meaning that the battle for sprint supremacy is very much up in the air.
With his four victories in 2013, Marcel Kittel established himself as the fastest sprinter in that year’s Tour, and his dominance in the first two stages of this year’s Giro d’Italia (before he pulled out of the race with illness) suggest that he has not slacked off in 2014. His top-speed is otherworldly and he also has a nearly unbeatable leadout train. I think he is the best of the three right now.
OPQS’s Mark Cavendish has won some nice victories this year all over the map, and was head and shoulders above his competition in the recent Tour de Suisse on Stage 4, the one chance he had to sprint for victory (a crash derailed his bid for glory on Stage 5). His leadout, despite the additions of Mark Renshaw and Alessandro Petacchi, has not been as strong as he would have hoped, but there is plenty of talent there and they could put it together for the Tour. What’s more, last year’s “disappointment” (two stage wins is a disappointment when you are Mark Cavendish) came after he had raced a difficult Giro d’Italia, and this year, he skipped that Grand Tour in favor of shorter races. Perhaps with fewer race miles, he’ll be better prepared to take on his rivals.
Andre Greipel has had quite a year, racking up victory after victory since January’s Tour Down Under. Having just won another German Nationals title, as well as stages in each of the last four races he has undertaken, Greipel is obviously on great form. Lotto’s leadout team is a good one. Still, Greipel is probably the third of the trio right now. As much success as he has had this year, he has mostly been facing lower-level competition recently and I’m not sure how well his dominance against that competition will carry into the biggest race of the year. However, he is still a member of that elite trio, well above the rest of the sprinting pack, and picking up a few victories is a reasonable goal for the German.
Even with the dominance of this select trio of sprinters, however, the battle for the green jersey is still likely to come down to Peter Sagan, who can hunt for victories in the Tour’s many hilly stages and reliably expect Top 10s in the flat ones. As he consistently racks up very high placings, the triumvirate of top sprinters will be fighting amongst themselves for victories on the very flat stages, and not even contesting some of the hillier days that Peter Sagan is targeting. The convincing winner of the Tour de Suisse points competition, Sagan is firing on all cylinders right now and it’s hard to see past him in any stage likely to end in a reduced bunch sprint. Cannondale teammate Elia Viviani appears to be here in a support capacity.
Michael Matthews figures to offer some competition to Sagan on the tougher days; he showed stunning climbing legs in the Giro d’Italia and, having abandoned that race before it got too mountainous, he should have enough energy in the tank to challenge Sagan on the hilly stages. Marcel Kittel’s teammate John Degenkolb isn’t as good a climber as Matthews or Sagan but he could be there on some of the tougher days, too. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare is ready to prove that he, not Nacer Bouhanni, is the best sprinter on his team, and he’ll have an eye on the sprints that follow more difficult stages as well. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is especially adept at sprints that follow grueling days in the saddle: the cobbled fifth stage could be a good opportunity to shine against some of these other names. This Tour de France will also be a rare opportunity for him to sprint with the support of a dedicated team, meaning that he may also surprise even on the less demanding stages.
Lampre’s Sacha Modolo has been knocking at the door of his first WorldTour victory for a while and he finally got it in the Tour de Suisse; he’s on excellent form right now and is a nice outside candidate in the sprints. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has been extremely successful hunting victories in lower level French races this year; with a little luck he could be in the mix. Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Morkov and Daniele Bennati, and Cofidis’s Adrien Petit and versatile Julien Simon are other outside contenders for the sprints who will hope to play spoiler to the heavier favorites.
Punchy types who will look to get into the mix on the hillier stages include 2013 stage winner and 2014 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge and his on-form teammate Michael Albasini, Garmin’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belsol’s Tony Gallopin, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, and Europcar’s Cyril Gautier. As mentioned before, Joaquim Rodriguez considers himself purely a stagehunter in this race, making him a very likely aggressor in the later mountain stages of the Tour. We won’t know which big-time climbers abandon failed GC bids to hunt stage wins until the leaderboard starts to take shape in the middle of the race, but Purito is sure to be among the most prominent of the riders looking for mountaintop victories from the breakaway in the Tour’s final week.
Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, and, of course, Trek’s Jens Voigt and Fabian Cancellara are just a few of the names that stand out as likely long distance protagonists; for many of them, the cobbles of Stage 5 are a major target. Cancellara is also likely to be one of the main contenders in the Tour’s lone time trial, where he will face off against the GC heavyweights and other chrono specialists like World Champ Tony Martin and Giant-Shimano up-and-comer Tom Dumoulin.
VeloHuman Favorites
General Classification
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali Other Top Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, Bauke Mollema, Jurgen van den Broeck, Rui Costa, Thibaut Pinot
Points Classification
Winner: Peter Sagan
I will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Tour de France here at VeloHuman.com, so make sure to bookmark the page! VH will bring you stage profiles, favorites, and outsiders for every day of racing. You can check out the Stage 1 Preview here. There will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. If you’re the type who can’t get enough cycling talk, you’ll be glad you followed! Hope to see you soon.
-Dane Cash
Photos by Damien, jvanattenhoven, Alain Stoll, and Harald.
