Tag: Grand Tour

Tour de France 2016: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Montélimar › Villars-les-Dombes Parc des Oiseaux – 208.5km

On the heels of two decisive days for the General Classification comes a stage set for the sprinters. There are several small climbs in the profile, but only three of them are categorized, and they’re Cat. 4s at that. Plus, the final 50km are flat. It will take a bungling by the sprinter’s teams to let this stage get away.

I don’t have too many new things to say about the sprinting matchup, which, for me, always comes down to a three-way contest. Mark Cavendish has proven the most successful so far in this race. Marcel Kittel has the speed to beat anyone, and André Greipel throughout his career has shown a tendency to have one or two very impressive stages in his legs per grand tour.

I’ll go with Cav slightly ahead of Kittel here after two tough stages. He’s probably a bit stronger in a messy sprint. I’m not sure that the peloton will be particularly orderly given the last two days of racing and that probably favors Cav. It also disfavors Greipel, for that matter.

Beyond the big three it’s the usual suspects as fringe contenders: Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff, Sam Bennett, and Dylan Groenewegen are riders to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. André Greipel

July 16, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Bourg-Saint-Andéol › La Caverne du Pont-d’Arc – 37.5km (ITT)

After a bizarre Mont Ventoux thriller, I’m expecting something a bit more straightforward Friday in this Tour’s first of two time trial stages.

The 37.5km route is not overly difficult. The two main challenges come at the start and at the end of the day. The road angles upward from the get-go in the range of 5% for 7km. Then things are quite flat before a high-speed, not-that-technical downhill at around 24km. After that, it’s another flat stretch and then a final ascent to the line that starts off steep for a brief moment before easing up.

I see this as a stage for the big engines, and there are plenty in attendance—though for the first time in a long time, there is no clear-cut favorite for a traditional time trial at the Tour.

For me there are as many as six riders who could potentially win the chrono. I’ll start with my (very) prohibitive favorite, Tony Martin. He hasn’t been the dominant TT specialist of old recently, but he also hasn’t had many opportunities to time trial over 20km this season, except in the German nationals, which he won. On this big stage I do expect him to shine. The course suits him well.

Tom Dumoulin is the other rider I put atop my group of six potential winners. Like Martin, he excels in long time trials, and he doesn’t mind a few hills thrown in. He’s obviously on terrific form (his Stage 9 win proved that) so another victory would be no surprise.

Rohan Dennis and Fabian Cancellara should be in the mix as well. It’s been a bit of a quiet Tour for both riders thus far, but they both have the talent to win.

Chris Froome and Richie Porte have not had quiet Tours. Both could be tired from climbing Ventoux at full speed Thursday, but I still think the stage win is a possibility. Froome is being tipped by many for the stage—I personally think Porte is even better in the TT these days, as it’s been a very long time since Froome did much against the clock in a big race, but it’s impossible to know just how Porte is feeling after the crash in Stage 12. He didn’t look great at the finish. If he’s not too hindered by lingering injuries, Porte could win the TT.

Outsiders for the stage win include Vasil Kiryienka, Ion Izagirre, Tejay van Garderen, and Thibaut Pinot.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Tom Dumoulin | 3. Chris Froome

July 15, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Carcassonne › Montpellier – 162.5km

Fortunately, the Tour’s 11th stage is relatively short, because the profile doesn’t have much to offer in the way of interesting features. Unless the peloton really screws this one up, Wednesday should be a sprinter’s day.

I expect a bunch kick for the pure specialists, which means I’m going to have trouble making my prognostications all that compelling: as usual, it should be all about Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel. I’m going to stubbornly pick Marcel Kittel for this stage despite Cav’s success in the Tour so far.

I think the probably traditional mass sprint here favors Kittel, if only slightly—especially since Cav’s top leadout man Mark Renshaw is out of the Tour. And while I see Cavendish as a very close contender just as worth of favorite status, don’t count Greipel simply because he hasn’t won yet. He can run a bit hot and cold, and if he’s hot in Stage 11, he could very well win.

Beyond that big three it’s more of the same in terms of possible outsiders. Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, and Alexander Kristoff headline a list that also includes Dylan Groenewegen, Edward Theuns, John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, and perhaps Sam Bennett, if he’s feeling up for it.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

July 13, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Escaldes-Engordany › Revel – 197km

Tuesday’s stage is a tough one to forecast thanks to a small climb late in the day, though the rest of the stage will probably be relatively mundane. The Port d’Envalira is one heck of a climb but it comes so early in the action it’s not going to have much of an impact on the racing other than probably setting up the early break.

Then it’s a long descent and about 130km of mostly flat roads before the Côte de Saint-Ferréol, 1.8km at 6.6%, crested 7km from the finish. The road only really flattens out for the final 3km.

This stage could go any number of ways. It’s possible the break takes it, in case the sprinters’ teams aren’t all that interested in keeping the escapees under control with a testy finish on offer. It’s possible the bunch gets to the finish together, though slightly reduced from the late climb. It’s possible someone attacks out of the peloton on the climb. And it’s possible that the stage ends in a sprint. That’s a lot of options.

I like Peter Sagan to win the stage because he could triumph in any one of those four scenarios. He’s looked great even in the pure bunch sprints so far in the race, not to mention his skills as a solo artist and puncheur. He can be in the mix no matter what happens in Stage 10.

I think there’s a decent probability of a bunch sprint, too, so Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel could all be in play. Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, and in particular, Bryan Coquard are especially dangerous given the profile.

I see Tony Gallopin as a nice option to attack for the win. He’ll love the finale. Greg Van Avermaet, Julian Alaphilippe, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Fabian Cancellara, and Steve Cummings could get involved with a long-range strike as well.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Bryan Coquard | 3. Tony Gallopin

July 12, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de France 2016, Part II

Episode 48: Tour de France 2016 Show, Part II

The Recon Ride reviews the Tour’s first nine stages and looks ahead at what’s to come over the next week.

[powerpress]

The Tour de France is in full swing. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano discuss the state of affairs in the Tour so far and dig into the next few days of racing, which include some big mountains and a crucial time trial.

Photo by Chaumurky (CC).

July 11, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Vielha Val d’Aran › Andorre Arcalis – 184.5km

The last day of racing before the first rest day, Stage 9 should be a real GC showdown, especially since Stage 7 and 8 lacked much in the way of major time gaps. The profile certainly provides ample opportunity. There is very little flat along the road to Arcalis, with several uncategorized uphill stretches to go along with the many downhill kilometers.

The first four categorized climbs should serve to soften up the legs considerably. Then comes the final climb, an hors categorie challenge of 10.1km at 7.2%. Particularly in its position as the day’s fifth hard climb, the Arcalis will undoubtedly draw out attacks.

The up-and-down nature of this profile will have the breakers excited about their chances, but with the GC still so open I wouldn’t be surprised to the teams of the yellow jersey hopefuls keeping any long-range move on a short leash. As such, Stage 9 could come down to a battle among all the big GC stars.

Chris Froome remains my favorite for the tough mountain stages. Although he gained some time in Stage 8, it wasn’t much, and I think Froome is still hoping to deliver that early coup de grace for which he has become known. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen here. His team looked great Saturday.

Nairo Quintana remains the other obvious choice in the mountains. Sure, he sort of got caught sleeping in Stage 8, but he appeared to be climbing well and that’s what will matter on these gradients. His Movistar teammate Alejandro Valverde can’t be counted out either.

On peak form Fabio Aru is a top pick here but he’s a bit of an unknown right now. Dan Martin, Romain Bardet, Rui Costa, and Joaquím Rodríguez have nice potential among the GC men as well, particularly if it comes down to a small group late.

Rafal Majka and Thibaut Pinot could try to get back into the mix too after spending time in the breakaway Saturday—both are talented enough to win from the pack or the break, making them extra dangerous. The long list of other potential breakers includes Alberto Contador, Steve Cummings, Rubén Plaza, and Ilnur Zakarin.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Richie Porte

July 10, 2016