Tag: Grand Tour

Tour de France 2016: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Pau › Bagnères-de-Luchon – 184km

With four serious climbs on the menu, Stage 8 has the potential to really shake up the General Classification. Though the day won’t finish on an ascent, the challenging climbs could split up the even the big overall favorites. I expect some action from the yellow jersey hopefuls on the Col de Peyresourde (7.1km at 7.8%), though maybe not before.

If Chris Froome follows the formula that has already won him two Tours de France, he’ll play this stage aggressively. And if Chris Froome is in form, I expect him to be the strongest climber in the race, as he has so often proven to be early on in past Tours. The question is whether he’ll repeat the strategy. It’s likely enough that I see him as the favorite here.

Nairo Quintana is of course another top favorite for any crucial mountain stage. He should be in shape here. I do wonder, however, whether Alejandro Valverde might get the green light to go for the stage win if the opportunity is there. The finish suits him quite well.

Fringe contenders like Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Rafal Majka, Pierre Rolland, Dan Martin, and Joaquím Rodríguez are good candidates here, as the GC men might allow them to ride off the front. The Astana duo of Fabio Aru and Vincenzo Nibali could also make something happen, as could the BMC duo of Tejay van Garderen and Richie Porte—but it’ll take a lot of effort for them to escape the pack.

And should a break take the stage, watch out for the likes of Rubén Plaza, Ilnur Zakarin, and Thomas De Gendt. I like the chances of the GC types on Stage 8, but the escapees will have a very real shot as well.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Nairo Quintana

July 9, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: L’Isle-Jourdain › Lac de Payolle – 162.5km

The first real climber’s stage of the Tour is here! Stage 7 is pretty straightforward: it’s all about the Cat. 1 Col d’Aspin (12km at 6.5%) and the ensuing descent to a slightly uphill finish.

The stage will certainly bring the climbers to the fore, but since the climb isn’t that challenging, I see the strong descenders and punchy finishers as having the best shot at winning the day.

Dan Martin certainly fits the bill. He’s looked good so far in the race and with his fast finish I think he can be a real threat here. His teammate Julian Alaphilippe is a danger man as well.

And while we’re on the subject of Ardennes-type riders, it’s certainly worth naming Alejandro Valverde, who would be my favorite here if he weren’t playing second fiddle to Nairo Quintana on GC. As it is, I still see Valverde with a good chance.

The same is true for Joaquím Rodríguez. This is a nice finish for him, and the stage in general could present a nice opportunity to try for a long-range attack.

The same goes for Vincenzo Nibali. I initially had him pegged as a top favorite for the stage before his first few days on Tour. He hasn’t been particularly impressive so far but this is still a profile that suits him.

Romain Bardet, Steve Cummings, Rui Costa, Rafal Majka, Tony Gallopin, Ilnur Zakarin, and, of course, any one of Quintana, Chris Froome, or Fabio Aru could deliver here as well.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Dan Martin | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

July 8, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Arpajon-sur-Cère › Montauban – 190.5km

One last flat-ish day before the climber’s get their chance to shine, stage 6 is almost certainly one for the sprinters, who won’t want to miss this opportunity before the mountains.

The three categorized climbs all come relatively early and the stage is neither short nor overly long. In other words, it’s hard to find too much to say about this profile that will keep the sprinters from contesting the finish.

Three sprint stages into the Tour, I can’t really say with much confidence that any one sprinter is head and shoulders above the rest. I still see Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel as being pretty closely matched. I’ll go with Kittel as a slight favorite here. With a good leadout I still think he’s the fastest guy in the race, though Cav looks like a close second and Greipel a close third.

In Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff, and Sam Bennett, the Tour peloton has plenty of potential spoilers as well. Also keep an eye on young Edward Theuns, who has looked really good so far in this race.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

July 7, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Limoges › Le Lioran – 216km

Wednesday’s stage is one of the more unpredictable days in this Tour. The profile is hilly enough to put the sprinters out of contention, and it could spring an early breakaway or a late attack to success. The final 40km involve four categorized climbs and a uncategorized uphill finish that favors the puncheurs.

At first glance, a few days ago, I thought this would be breakaway day for sure, but the race situation may dictate otherwise. With Peter Sagan in the yellow jersey and GC teams that have looked interested in battling for every inch at the front of the bunch so far, I see it more as a 50/50 proposition.

Should the pack contest the finish, there are a few clear favorites. Sagan is one of them. The finish might actually favor punchier types better but Sagan has looked very impressive all season and it’s hard to put anything past him.

Julian Alaphilippe should like the look of the stage. The late climbs will thin out most of the faster finishers and the uphill finale will suit him very well. Etixx teammate Dan Martin has a shot too.

Alejandro Valverde is of course a potential stage winner with this finish, though it’s hard to say whether Movistar will want him pushing too hard to achieve his own goals.

The profile might be a tad too challenging for Michael Matthews, on the other hand, but he’s worth keeping an eye on. His teammate Simon Gerrans may like the parcours more.

Tony Gallopin is typically very strong on this sort of finish, especially with the succession of climbs at the end of the day. The same could be said for Greg Van Avermaet. Joaquím Rodríguez, Rui Costa, and Bauke Mollema are others with a decent shot in a reduced sprint.

Stephen Cummings and Thomas De Gendt stand out as strong breakaway candidates for Stage 5. This early in the race, it’s hard to say who is gunning for the long-range moves, but those two are among the clear possible breakers on just about any stage. Simon Geschke and Sylvain Chavanel are also options.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Julian Alaphilippe | 3. Alejandro Valverde

July 6, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Saumur › Limoges – 237.5km

Tuesday’s stage is rather similar to Monday’s: long and mostly flat. It’s actually the longest stage of this year’s Tour, and yet the profile contains just one forgettable Cat. 4 climb. The most important topographical feature comes at the finish, where the road angles upward slightly for the final 500 meters.

The profile is pretty sprinter-friendly so it’s hard to see anyone other than the speedsters as top favorites, though the length could shake things up a bit. 237.5km puts this into the realm of a one-day classic, and that could leave some of the less versatile sprinters a bit worn out by the end of the day.

As such, I like André Greipel to win the stage. He came so close to the win in Stage 3, proving his strong form, and I think Stage 4 suits him a bit bitter, now that he’s shown some ability in the classics.

That said, Mark Cavendish has to be considered a strong contender to take his third win of the Tour. He’s obviously in top shape, and his teammates have proven themselves worthy supporters in the bunch kicks.

The third member of the top sprinting trio in this Tour, Marcel Kittel, found himself out of position in Stage 3 but that doesn’t mean he’s not in-form. Tuesday’s route might be a bit long for the German but not so long that I’m counting him out.

On the other hand, Peter Sagan‘s chances look great on this parcours. The slight uphill drag in the finale suits him quite well, as does the distance. I think he’s probably got a better shot than Kittel with all those factors in mind.

Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Greg Van Avermaet, and Edward Theuns are other speedy options who should really like the look of the profile—this is just the sort of route that gives them a chance to steal a sprint win from the Cavs and the Kittels.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Mark Cavendish

July 5, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Granville › Angers – 223.5km

After a brief interlude of excitement on Stage 2, the Tour gets back to sprinter-friendly racing in Stage 3. It’s a long one at 223.5-kilometers, but the only categorized climb is a Cat. 4, 25km in. After that, it’s mostly flat all the way to the finish, where the road does angle upward ever so slightly at around 2.5% for the final kilometer.

Coming into the race I saw this as a Marcel Kittel day with André Greipel close behind (thanks to the stage length), but then Mark Cavendish went and took Stage 1. Still, it’s early. Too early to anoint anyone the clear top dog in the bunch kicks just yet.

Kittel looked strong at Utah Beach, and Greipel was at least in the mix, so I’ll stick with my initial impression for now. Of course, it would be no surprise at all to see Cavendish take this.

The distance could boost Peter Sagan‘s chances a bit. He was very strong in the Stage 2 finale, but perhaps even more impressive was his third-place finish in Stage 1. That bodes well for the sprint stages to come.

Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, Bryan Coquard, Sam Bennett, Dylan Groenewegen, and John Degenkolb could also feature in the bunch sprint likely to close out Stage 3.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. André Greipel | 3. Mark Cavendish

July 4, 2016