Tag: Grand Tour

Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Pinerolo › Risoul: 162km

Friday’s stage is a short but brutal one. The route includes just two categorized climbs, but one of them (the first one) ascends to the highest point in the race. Moreover, that climb, the Colle d’Agnello, is preceded by around 50 kilometers of … climbing. All told, it’s around 70 kilometers of ascending with an average grade over 3%, with the official climb itself scaling just over 21km at just under 7%.

If that’s not enough to exhaust the riders, the summit is followed by a fast descent that runs right to the foot of the day’s other climb, a Cat. 1 ascent to Risoul. It’s 12.85km at again just under 7%.

As short as it is, the stage will be raced hard from the gun, and on these gradients, I think we are likely to see plenty of riders blow up. In terms of the battle for the stage win, I think the breakaway and the general classification riders have roughly equal chances of fighting it out Friday, but among the GC riders there are far fewer riders on the list of favorites so I’ll start there.

Steven Kruijswijk has looked like the best climber so far in this Giro. He also really wants to win a stage—he’s definitely among the top contenders for Stage 19. However, I don’t think he’ll risk throwing away the pink jersey to chase down an attack from someone three minutes down on GC unless it’s really necessary, which is why I like Esteban Chaves a bit better for this stage. The Colombian has been very strong the past two weeks and this is his terrain. The same could be said for Ilnur Zakarin, another rider who will likely get a bit of room to roam.

Alejandro Valverde looks much better than he did a week ago as well. He’s a candidate for the victory, and so is Vincenzo Nibali. The former Giro winner hasn’t shown the kind of form we’d expected of him at the start of the race, but he’s always a threat.

It’s never easy to predict a breakaway winner but a few strong candidates have emerged over the course of the Giro. Mikel Nieve, Nicolas Roche, David López, Darwin Atapuma, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Alessandro De Marchi, Giovanni Visconti, and Joe Dombrowski are other potential stage winners.

VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

1. Esteban Chaves | 2. Steven Kruijswijk | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 27, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Muggió › Pinerolo – 240km

The 18th stage of the Giro has an “in-betweener” sort of profile that could go a few different ways. Everything will come down to the day’s lone categorized challenge, the Cat. 2 Pramartino climb. 4.65 kilometers at 10.5%, it is absolutely hard enough to break up the general classification. Alternatively, we could see an armistice among the overall contenders while the punchy stage hunters jump clear of the bunch. Or maybe all the attackers will be reeled in before the finish, leading to a reduced sprint. Or we could see an early break take the stage.

I’m inclined to think this comes down to the peloton, especially since one team with a GC contender happens to have the best overall candidate for the win—that would, of course, be Movistar and Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard can win with an attack on the climb or in a sprint, and he’s looking strong again after a bad day in the mountains last week.

Diego Ulissi is the other top name for this stage, and he brings another option to the table: the breakaway win. Like Valverde, he’s got the punch to thrive here, though he’s maybe a bit less likely to thrive on the climb.

The list of riders who could win this from the break includes: Tim Wellens (who I would have named as my pick before Ulissi and Valverde rode so well in Stage 16), Nicolas Roche, Giovanni Visconti, Gianluca Brambilla, Moreno Moser, and Sonny Colbrelli.

It’d be pretty surprising to see any of the GC contenders not named Alejandro Valverde crossing the line first in this stage, but a long-range attack from Esteban Chaves or Vincenzo Nibali, or even from the impressive race leader Steven Kruijswijk, would not be out of the question.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Tim Wellens

May 26, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Molveno › Cassano D’Adda – 196km

The Giro’s 17th stage looks like a perfect one for the sprinters. After a Cat. 4 climb midway through the day, there are almost 100 kilometers of gently downhill or flat roads. If this were the first stage of the race, there would be no question about the outcome—however it’s not the first week.

André Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Arnaud Démare, Elia Viviani, and Caleb have all abandoned the Giro, leaving very few quick men left to challenge for the stage. On the one hand, Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo are probably happy to have reduced competition. On the other hand, that leaves just Trek and Lampre to do the work in the bunch to chase down the early break.

Should they be able to keep this under control, I like Nizzolo’s chances. It’s a tricky sprint with some corners, and Nizzolo has looked good so far in the race. Modolo is a strong contender as well, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all for him to best Nizzolo, as he’s already done is several times in his career—including twice in last year’s race.

It’d be a surprise for any other sprinter to win here, but outsiders include Matteo Trentin, Alexander Porsev, Ramunas Navardauskas, Heinrich Haussler, and Kristian Sbaragli.

It’s anyone’s guess who would win this from a breakaway, as an early escape on this type of stage is as much a question of chance as anything. Daniel Oss, Adam Hansen, JJ Rojas, Stefan Küng, and Lars Bak are among the potential protagonists for a long-range victory.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Matteo Trentin

May 25, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Bressanone › Andalo – 132km

The Giro peloton gets back to racing after a much-needed day off with a stage that could see more gaps on GC—but will likely be more of a breakaway battleground than anything.

The climbs aren’t easy, and the first two in particular seem to be rated rather modestly. The first climb has an uphill run-up—all told, the riders will be ascending for the better part of 20km at an average gradient of over 5%. That’s pretty hard for a Cat. 2. The next climb is also given a rating that might have riders underestimating it. More than 10km at over 7%, it’s enough to spur attacks.

All that said, the stage ends with a Cat. 3 that flattens out at the top, which could have the overall contenders hesitant about setting their teams to work. At least in terms of the stage battle, I think the early escapees will have good chance at the win.

That makes predicting Stage 16 quite hard, but I’ll toss a few names out there. Mikel Nieve is one—he’s a great climber with freedom to hunt stage wins, and that’s already netted him one victory in this race. His Sky teammate David López could be in the mix as well.

Darwin Atapuma and Alessandro De Marchi make a nice duo of potential breakers for BMC. Atapuma looks great right now.

Giovanni Visconti would be a terrific pick for this stage, but it could be all hands on deck for Valverde at Movistar right now. If he does get into the breakaway, however, he’s got a great chance.

Tim Wellens and Diego Ulissi are both excellent candidates for the stage win because they could conceivably win this from the break or the peloton. The same is true of Gianluca Brambilla.

Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favorite if this does come down to the bunch, given his speedy finishing kick. Esteban Chaves, Vincenzo Nibali, and Steven Kruijswijk are other potential winners, though it will take a pretty strong attack to make that happen with this finale.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Mikel Nieve | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 24, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Castelrotto › Alpe di Siusi – 10.85km (ITT)

Just in case Stage 14 was not decisive enough for you, Giro organizers planned a critical mountain time trial for the day after the queen stage.

10.85km from start to finish, the stage has an average gradient of a little over 7.2% all told, though the hard climbing only starts after 1.8km. From there it’s pretty steady the rest of the way up.

Sunday’s stage is all about who can generate the most watts per kilogram at this point in the race, following an extremely difficult Saturday. A few days ago I thought this would be a pretty straightforward stage to predict, but given the way things played out in Stage 14, I’m not so sure now.

Vincenzo Nibali is a cautious favorite pick. At peak form, Nibali would be the clear top contender—but he looked to be just a bit off his best Saturday. I still think he combines TT ability with climbing legs better than anyone else on the startlist, but it could be closer than expected.

Steven Kruijswijk has forced himself into the conversation here. He doesn’t get a lot of credit as a time trialist, but he was a very impressive 5th in last year’s 14th stage of the Giro. Combined with the way he’s been going uphill, he’s a real contender for the stage win here.

So is Esteban Chaves. TTs aren’t really his thing but he’s not the worst rider against the clock, and it shouldn’t matter too much with the gradient of this climb. Chaves is flying in this Giro.

Then there’s Alejandro Valverde. A few days ago I would have thought he’d be in with a shot at the win here but he really struggled in Stage 14. On the other hand, one thing that makes a guy like Valverde a perennial GC contender is his ability to deliver consistently through three weeks. I’m not counting him out after one bad day.

Ilnur Zakarin and Rafal Majka both have a chance on this stage. Majka in particular has done very well in Giro mountain time trials in the past. Rigoberto Urán, Andrey Amador, Bob Jungels, and Primoz Roglic are others who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Steven Kruijswijk | 3. Esteban Chaves

May 22, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Alpago › Corvara – 210km

It’s been one stagehunter-focused day after another at the Giro d’Italia so far, but that changes Saturday in Stage 14, a day that should provide a critical GC showdown.

The profile speaks for itself. The six categorized climbs are hard and relentless, with plenty of tricky descending thrown in for good measure.

Of particular note is the first ascent. The Cat. 1 Passo Pordoi is officially only 9.25km at 6.9%, but the peloton must climb for over 60km to even get to that point. It’s essentially a 70km climb with a gradient of a little under 3%—and that’s just to kick off the action.

After a few more tough climbs comes the Passo Giau, nearly 10km at over 9%. That’s steep enough to spur plenty of GC action. The Cat. 2 that follows is no joke either, and then comes a descent into the finale, where a short but very steep uncategorized ascent leads into a gentler uphill finish.

I expect the General Classification to blow apart on this stage. It’s going to find riders out, and the gaps to any stragglers could be huge. That said, the stage doesn’t finish atop a mountain, which could give a small group a chance to come home together.

The breakaway has a chance on this hard-to-control day, but I don’t see any one long-range specialist as a big favorite. I do see two key names among the pink jersey hopefuls, however, so I’ll start there.

To me, this stage has Vincenzo Nibali written all over it. He isn’t just the best climber in the race (when at peak form at least), he’s also among the best descenders. That will be hugely important on a stage with so many downhill sections to navigate. The race is still more open than most people would have expected but I know, so it’s time for Nibali to take control of the GC, and this is the perfect opportunity to do it.

Alejandro Valverde could give him a run for his money. The Spaniard is also a great descender, and he has Nibali beat in a sprint if they both come to the line together. Morever, Movistar has looked very impressive in this race. They can put a lot of pressure on with Andrey Amador leading the race and Valverde lurking, and they have several riders who can jump into the breakaway to provide support in the finale as well.

Esteban Chaves and Steven Kruijswijk have both been climbing very well and could be involved here as well. Ilnur Zakarin could stand to improve as a descender but he’s so good when he’s in form that he can’t be overlooked either. Rafal Majka has been quiet so far in the race but I think he could be very dangerous in this stage too.

It’s hard to say who might get involved if this is a day for the breakaway, especially since many of the top picks just spent a tough day out front in Stage 13. Giovanni Visconti and Mikel Nieve are both candidates for success here. So is Damiano Cunego. Stefano Pirazzi has looked okay so far in the Giro but his Bardiani-CSF teammate Giulio Ciccone may be a better bet.

Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, and Sebastian Henao are others with long-range potential in Stage 14.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Esteban Chaves

May 21, 2016