Tag: Greg van Avermaet

Tour de France 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Abbeville › Le Havre – 191.5km

With André Greipel’s second 2015 Tour win now in the books, the peloton is set to take on a 191.5-kilometer journey along the coast from Abbeville to Le Havre on Stage 6. The profile should set up an interesting contest.

There are only three categorized climbs on the road from start to finish, all of them Cat. 4s, and none of them inside the final 25km—but this is a rolling parcours throughout that could make things difficult to control. The finish is the most intriguing part of the stage. Inside the final two kilometers the road kicks upward on the Côte d’Ingouville, 850 meters at 7%, before mostly flattening out for the final half-kilometer or so. It’s not a categorized challenge, but it’s steep enough to put the heavier sprinters at a big positioning disadvantage before the last few hundred meters, and that’s assuming a large group comes to the finish in the first place.

A strong breakaway could have a chance on this profile, especially given the fact that some of the punchier favorites who could thrive in the finale ride for teams with GC interests, teams that might be less interested in wasting energy giving chase to a group up the road. However, with bonus seconds on offer at the line and a relative dearth of stages with opportunities for the less Alpine-inclined in this Tour de France, there should be decent motivation within the pack to keep this together at least into the final few kilometers, from which point it will be anyone’s game.

If he’s well-positioned coming into the final few kilometers, Peter Sagan should be able to handle the late climb and thrive in a somewhat reduced kick. He’s nearly won two sprint stages against the very fastest riders in this Tour de France already; with a bit of help from gravity on the uphill drag near the line on Stage 6, he’ll be very hard to beat. His biggest challenge, as it often is, will probably be other aggressive types trying to steal a march from the peloton a bit further out than the finishing straight—with Contador’s GC aspirations as Tinkoff-Saxo’s primary focus in the race, the team may not be inclined to put in the effort to control the race in the finale. Sagan will need to be alert here.

Lotto Soudal has had a great Tour so far and will have another opportunity for success on Stage 6. André Greipel is obviously on blazing form, having already nabbed two victories in this race. But with the late climb, Tony Gallopin may be the team’s best option here. Having landed an impressive 5th place on the Stage 3 Mur de Huy finish, ahead of some very strong climbers, he has the right mix of uphill ability and explosiveness to be in the mix, especially if there is action in the last few kilometers. This finale suits him very well.

Greg Van Avermaet should appreciate this opportunity to pick up an elusive Tour stage victory. The climb should be just hard enough to jettison some of the heavier types while still allowing Van Avermaet to survive and potentially jump clear. The Belgian is on excellent form right now.

John Degenkolb tends to put in good performances on stages with slightly uphill finishes, but I’m not sure how well he will handle the 7% gradient. That’s a bit steeper than he might like, and with so many strong puncheurs on the startlist, he will have his work cut out for him holding on if some of the better climbers put the pressure on. If he can hold a strong position in the finale, he’ll be deadly, but it won’t be easy.

Alejandro Valverde, on the other hand, would probably prefer a slightly more difficult finale, but he’s a danger regardless. He’s been particularly effective this season in reduced sprints this season, and the bonus seconds on offer on this stage should be great motivation to put in some effort here, though his form is a bit of a question mark after an underwhelming visit to the Mur de Huy on Stage 3. A stronger performance there might have me more confident in his chances here.

An in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen should like the look of this stage. It’s been a long time since he took a big victory but a good result should be well within his reach—he outgunned the likes of Degenkolb and several other strong sprinting favorites on Stage 5 and Stage 6 suits him even better. Michal Kwiatkowski has been a bit underwhelming so far in this Tour de France, but the Amstel Gold Race winner is always a danger on this sort of profile and will be a rider to keep an eye on—he knows how to get clear of a bunch when the opportunity presents itself, and he’s also got a great turn of speed if things stay relatively compact over the final climb. His EQS teammates Matteo Trentin and the surprisingly fast Rigoberto Urán may be dangerous in the finale as well. Mark Cavendish may find the late climb too steep, but if the peloton plays it conservatively, he might have a shot of holding on. Trek teammates Julian Arredondo and Bauke Mollema both rate as strong outsiders for me—they’re known for their climbing prowess but both pack a punch in a finishing kick like this. Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar, Bryan Coquard, Joaquim Rodríguez, the Cannondale duo of Dan Martin and Ramunas Navardauskas, and the Lampre-Merida duo of Davide Cimolai and Rui Costa are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Tony Gallopin | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 8, 2015
E3 Harelbeke 2015 Preview

After weeks and weeks of EuropeTour-level one-day races in Belgium, the final weekend in March ushers in the WorldTour stretch of Classics, opening with E3 Harelbeke. It’s typically a thriller, a race that takes advantage of the cobbled climbs in Flanders and balances them nicely with a long enough finishing straight to make the aggressors work extra hard to escape the pack. In short, an excellent way to kick off the next few weeks of marquee one-day events (the great appeal of this weekend’s racing was one topic covered in the Recon Ride podcast’s E3 + Gent-Wevelgem pre-race show, which is absolutely worth a listen).

The Route

E3 Harelbeke unsurprisingly starts and finishes in the town of Harelbeke, weaving through Flanders along a meandering and often cobbled 218-kilometer route that often crosses over itself. The profile contains 17 official climbs. The first half of the race contains only three of those climbs; the remaining fourteen come in rapid succession inside the second half of the day, finishing with around 22 km to go.

Among those many short but steep climbs are several familiar Tour of Flanders battlegrounds, including the quick (700 meters in full) but vicious (12% average gradient) Paterberg at around kilometer 175 and the longer Oude Kwaremont that follows almost immediately after and is crested around kilometer 180. Even the climbs that don’t seem particularly imposing are made all the more so because of the fact that they’ll be conquered with barely a moment’s rest in between—that, and the constant bone-rattling that will accompany many of them.

Things flatten out and ease up considerably, however, after the Tiegemberg with around 20 kilometer left in the race. From there it’s a less complicated (topographically, at least; this is Belgium after all, where the roads are never easy to race on) ride as the road loops into Harelbeke for the finish.

The Contenders

Though the length of the race doesn’t bring with it quite as much of an intimidation factor as that of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix, the cobbled, uphill challenges absolutely make this a favoring the Classics hard men, which makes it unsurprising that E3 Harelbeke has mostly come down to a late attacker surviving to the in several of the past few years. Still, Tom Boonen’s 2012 victory is an important reminder that this race can come down to a sprint. With so much ground left to cover after the Tiegemberg, it will only be a very strong attack that is capable of surviving a chasing pack in this race. Even in that scenario, a decent sprint could come in handy, if a small group crosses the line together (that’s what happened in 2014, when Peter Sagan outsprinted Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh to win the day).

Fortunately for anyone who likes to watch aggressive racing, several of the Classics season’s strongest aggressors are looking in sharp form right now, making powerful attacks a likelihood for E3 Harelbeke.

34-year-old Fabian Cancellara, who looked good in a Milano-Sanremo that did not particularly suit his less-than elite field sprinting, has won E3 Harelbeke a whopping three times in his career. He won’t exact be able to fly under the radar, but he’s so strong it might not matter. On the other hand, Cancellara is facing a retirement relatively soon, and having won in the past, he may elect to ease off the gas just a tad in the upcoming Monuments. Classics veteran Stijn Devolder is a rider who could get involved as well for Trek.

Peter Sagan, last year’s winner, is certainly in the hunt for Monument victories in 2015. It’s unclear how motivated he is to give it his all in this race after his win here last season failed to quiet critics of his inability to win “the big one.” Still, his combination of Classics-soloing prowess and a deadly sprint make him an obvious favorite once again.

Unlike the aforementioned Cancellara and Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke combines a skillset well-tailored for E3 with a lack of any WorldTour results on his palmares as of yet in his career. Lately his climbing skills and his sprint have both been showing themselves nicely, and they complement his cobblestone-riding strength quite well in this eve. His team support is a bit less strong than it was in year’s past now that Lars Boom is off the team, but Vanmarcke is the total package for the Belgian Classics, and it would be a big surprise to see him doing anything other than attacking last in this race. Form, motivation, and an excellent combination of abilities make him a strong pick to finally win a race at the top level.

Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who brings an excellent combination of form and motivation into E3. Van Avermaet is one of the peloton’s best late attackers who showed top-notch soloing form with a 3rd place in the opening time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico (not typically a discipline that sees him doing particularly well). And if he does launch a trademark attack but is unable to drop everyone else in the finale, his quickness to the line in a reduced sprint could make the difference here. His teammate Daniel Oss has been having a strong season and will be a rider to keep an eye on as well.

Etixx-Quickstep and Team Sky both sport multiple-pronged attacks to light up this race as the cobbled and uphill sections start coming fast and furious. Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh head up a powerful EQS, with Stybar looking like the most fit for this race (his climbing legs and his finishing kick stand out among his teammates), especially after his Strade Bianche victory. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas, who is such a good climber it’d be disingenuous to pigeonhole him as a “Classics specialist,” may be the strongest option on a strong Sky squad, though Ian Stannard is a major danger as well.

After his Milano-Sanremo victory, John Degenkolb looks to be the class of the group of riders coming into this race hoping for a reduced sprint. His climbing ability will be particularly useful here in E3. Alexander Kristoff is another obvious name to watch in the sprint department; he doesn’t have Degenkolb’s uphill ability but he’s strong enough that he might be able to close gaps if he loses ground on the climbs; teammate Luca Paolini is an ideal supporter and deadly second.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sylvain Chavanel and Heinrich Haussler, Filippo Pozzato, Sebastian Langeveld, and Jurgen Roelandts are other top riders to watch for this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, Ian Stannard, Niki Terpstra, John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis from the roadside in Flanders!

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 6: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on both of the weekend’s WorldTour one-day events in a double pre-race show of E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem.
[powerpress]

Sharing a weekend, many of the same riders, and similar Belgian terrain, E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem make for a great pair of races. VeloHuman and Cyclocosm explore the routes, the startlists, and the narratives, with a bit of help from AG2R-La Mondiale’s Hugo Houle.

Photo by shirokazan.

March 26, 2015
BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet on Racing the GPs Québec and Montréal with Worlds Looming: “It’s Really Important to be Good Here.”

Greg Van Avermaet is one of the top contenders for this weekend’s Canadian classics, having landed on the podium in Québec in back-to-back years and notching a 4th place in Montréal in the 2013 edition. He sat down with VeloHuman before the GP Québec to talk about his form, his expectations for both races, and his preparation for the upcoming World Championships.

After a strong showing in the Spring Classics, Van Avermaet took on the Tour de France and came close to victory on several occasions, landing two Top 3 performances and several other strong placings on the three-week journey through England and France. Following the Tour, he didn’t have a lot of time to recover from a tough first half of the season, but that didn’t seem to matter much. Van Avermaet’s post-Tour stretch got off to a great start: he landed a Top 10 in a very hilly Clásica de San Sebastián and then took his first win of the year in a stage in the Eneco Tour. That victory was a major morale boost with some big goals coming up.

“I was chasing victories for a pretty long time, and I was close a few times in the classics and the Tour,” he said. “That [Eneco Tour victory] was a big win for me and for the team. It gives me a lot of confidence for the next races.”

Van Avermaet acknowledges that it isn’t easy to stay in top racing shape throughout a long season that starts as early as February, but he is feeling confident about his form right now for the Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec and Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal, and also for the upcoming World Championships.

“It’s a pretty long season so it’s pretty hard to focus and find a good balance between races and form,” he explained. “My main focus is always on classics, and this year I added the Tour, and my last goal is Worlds. It’s hard to find the form but I still feel pretty good . . . on a good level, performing pretty good.”

An in-form Greg Van Avermaet, along with talented all-rounders like Tejay van Garderen, make for a dangerous Team BMC in Canada this weekend. Van Avermaet is glad to have the support, and he’s hoping that the strong team will be able to force some selection on the hilly profile in Québec.

“Last year we had a pretty good race, we tried to make the race hard, to attack pretty early to make it difficult,” he noted. “For me it’s always better if it’s a hard race. It’s nice to see Tejay is interested in this kind of stuff. It’s nice to be the leader of this team but to also have him next to me to take a little bit of pressure off. Riding together, it’s fun because I helped him a little bit at the Tour and it’s nice that he’s coming to the races I like also.”

Having come so close to victory two years running, Van Avermaet doesn’t see that next step on the podium as being too far off.

“I’m pretty close to it [winning]. Last year I focused a little bit too much on Sagan for the sprint, and he didn’t sprint, it was a bit strange! Normally he wins the sprints,” Van Avermaet said. “The year before, I was out with Gerrans and he was just a bit stronger and faster. . . . Like last year, I feel like I have the chance to win; just a little bit of luck and the same legs as last year would be really good.”

Sagan isn’t in attendance in this year’s GP Québec, but there are plenty of dangerous contenders on the startlist. Van Avermaet has identified a few riders as top rivals, and the spectrum of skillsets on that list of potential protagonists is pretty wide, as one might expect from this typically unpredictable race.

“Simon [Gerrans] will be good. Vichot was good last year. Gallopin, Rui Costa. A few good guys that were here last year. Kristoff, if he can make it over the climb. Plenty of good riders,” Van Avermaet said. “For me, I kind of like it if the field is strong. It makes it easier to win the race when you’re not the only guy who has to make it [the race].”

Van Avermaet enjoys not only the competition here in Canada, but also the chance to fine tune his form ahead of the World Championships.

“I really like it here and it’s good for my characteristics. And good preparation also for Worlds. If you don’t do the Vuelta there’s only one way and it’s this one,” he said. “I like to be here. . . . It’s kind of like a small World Championships here, with the local laps, some climbing. It’s good to be here.”

The World Championships course in Ponferrada looks like it should suit Van Avermaet’s skillset, but he is one of a number of top riders from Belgium who could feature in the quest for the rainbow jersey. At the moment, Van Avermaet sees the composition of the team as still being very much an undecided matter.

“We have a good team, strong guys, but no one guy coming out who can say, ‘I’m the leader for this year.’ Normally it’s Boonen or Gilbert or a little bit of both, but this year they are not in the best shape,” Van Avermaet explained. “It’s hard to say right now who is going to be the leader, who is going to be protected. It’s a decision for the coach and it’s a hard decision. We will have a strong team like always, we have a lot of strength. . . . With Vanmarcke, Boonen, Gilbert, me, that’s already four and we only can take nine! So that’s lot of leaders. It will be hard to find a good combination to make a good team.”

The aforementioned Vanmarcke is here in Canada this weekend as well, along with other top Belgian riders like Jelle Vanendert, Tim Wellens, Jan Bakelants, Gianni Meersman, and Jurgen Roelandts. With so many potential Worlds teammates also making the start, Van Avermaet sees the GPs Québec and Montréal as an important opportunity to make a statement about his readiness to take on a featured role at Worlds.

“It’s pretty important for yourself and for your confidence so that you know that you’re in a good way and on a good level, but also you have to show the world that you’re ready to take a leadership spot in the national team, so it’s really important to be good here,” he said.

The startlists for both races are loaded with talent, but Van Avermaet certainly seems likely to put in those strong rides he’s hoping for this weekend. In his four Canadian Classics appearances so far, he’s never been outside the Top 15, and he isn’t lacking for motivation to pick up more results this year.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Brendan Ryan.

September 11, 2014
Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec 2014 Preview

While the Vuelta nears its conclusion in Spain, the WorldTour is also making its yearly visit to North America, where a pair of one-day races await. First up is the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec! 199.1 kilometers in total, the GP Quebec is a circuit race consisting of 11 laps that weave through the center of the city. As a top-level race and an important part of the Worlds buildup for many riders, it usually draws a very impressive group of participants (with those who focus on the hilly classics making up much of the roster) even with a Grand Tour taking place at the same time. This year is no exception!

VH will be at the event in-person, so stay tuned here and on Twitter (@VeloHuman) for plenty of exciting coverage (previews, interviews, and post-race analysis) of the GP Quebec and the GP Montreal.

The Route

The profile of the GP Quebec always makes for a very interesting race. None of the uphill challenges on the menu seem particularly difficult at first glance, but their location on the route guarantees that they will play a major role in determining the day’s winner, either providing a launching pad for late attacks or at least whittling down the pack on the way to a reduced uphill sprint.

The race starts (and finishes) in Old Quebec. The first 6.5 kilometers of the circuit are mostly flat as the road heads away from the city center, but then things change direction and there is a very fast descent down towards the water. As the road evens out, the pack will start heading back towards Old Quebec on the relatively flat Boulevard Champlain. Just after kilometer 14 of the circuit, things suddenly become difficult. The Côte de la Montaigne is only 375 meters in length, but at a 10% average grade, with almost half the climb at a whopping 13%, it will put plenty of pressure on the less uphill-oriented riders in the peloton. A fast descent follows, and then, as the route snakes through Quebec’s urban center, ultimately winding back towards the finish, the road kicks up in a series of climbs. The Côte de la Potasse is only 420 meters long, but the average gradient comes in at 9%. It is followed by a brief dip in the road and then another short, steep test, the Montée de la Fabrique, less than 200 meters in length but at 7%. Almost immediately after comes the long uphill drag to the line, the Montée du Fort climb, 1 kilometer at an average of 4%.

By themselves, the late climbs may not look like much, but in rapid succession and coming at the end of the race, they will bring the uphill chargers to the fore. A technical urban circuit, with a few steep downhills to boot, will provide even more inspiration for the aggressive riders to attempt to escape from the pack as the day nears its conclusion.

The Contenders

The parcours makes for a very open race, where a wide spectrum of riders, including climbing powerhouses and even sprinters, will have an opportunity to pick up a WorldTour-level victory at the end of a hilly (but not too hilly) day. The 2013 edition was a perfect illustration of this: Robert Gesink, not partcularly known for his one-day race performances, outgunned would-be World Champion Rui Costa and even Peter Sagan in an uphill sprint.

Gesink himself isn’t here, but the 2014 startlist, packed with hilly classics specialists, GC-style climbers, and a few of the peloton’s more versatile quick men, should set up another unpredictable race, as everyone will fight to survive the repeated uphill tests and then either launch a late move or hold out for a group finish on the Grande-Allée. A fair bit of punch and capable climbing legs will be necessities for anyone hoping to succeed in this race.

Orica-GreenEdge, loaded with talented riders for the hilly profiles, probably couldn’t draw up a race much more suited to them than the GP Quebec or its sister race in Montreal. They bring a powerful squad to Canada to contest both. Simon Gerrans won this race in 2012, and with his skillset, he’ll be among the most dangerous riders on this parcours. The two-time Monument winner is strong enough to escape from the pack on a tough profile if he sees an opportunity, and he is deadly in an uphill sprint. With a World Championship course that suits him just around the corner, he showed excellent form in the recent Vattenfall Cyclassics, sprinting to 3rd ahead of some very impressive names, and this race fits him even more perfectly. OGE will also have Michael Albasini, Daryl Impey (fresh off a Tour of Alberta win), Pieter Weening, and Jens Keukeleire as powerful cards to play. At least one member of this impressive team should feature prominently in the finale.

BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet was 2nd in the 2012 edition of the GP Quebec, and 3rd in last year’s race. The Canadian GPs are a major target of his, and an urban circuit with the ups and downs and twists and turns to inspire late attacks is perfect for the aggressive Belgian. He showed great form in an uphill burst to a stage victory in the recent Eneco Tour, and no matter how this race plays out, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t be involved at the finish once again. Tejay van Garderen may not have much of a resume in the one-day races, but the climbing specialist (who has looked more explosive than ever this year) will make for a powerful teammate.

FDJ’s Arthur Vichot was runner-up to Robert Gesink in 2013, and just put in a top-notch display of form when he took 3rd overall in the GP Ouest France in Plouay. Vichot was very impressive in the hilly Paris-Nice in March, and he looks to be returning to a high level as the season nears its conclusion. He’s an explosive uphill charger who isn’t afraid to go solo, and he should be among the top contenders in the GP Quebec.

World Champion Rui Costa has landed back-to-back top 5s in Quebec, and with his World Champs defense approaching, he’s highly motivated to put his mark on this race again. He’ll need a challenging race to put some of the faster finishers under pressure, but there are a number of true climbing talents on this startlist (including teammate Chris Horner) that could help. Costa has a knack for success here and the ability to strike out for glory alone or outgun a small group at the line.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is in attendance and probably has claim to the title of best sprinter on the startlist. Surviving the late uphill tests will not be easy for Kristoff, and the final drag doesn’t suit him that well, but he has continually delivered on very difficult profiles in 2014 and so he can’t be counted out with his elite finishing kick. Simon Spilak is a strong alternative.

Gianni Meersman is one of the most versatile sprinters here, and he’s on strong form at the moment. He might have a chance at staying with the pack all the way to the line. If not, OPQS is loaded with other options. Zdenek Stybar has the power to make a late break for victory or to hold the wheel of anyone who does and the finishing kick to outmatch a group at the finish. Julian Alaphilippe is very strong right now and just delivered a very impressive ride in the GP Ouest France, and Jan Bakelants (who loves the hilly days) and Matteo Trentin (deadly in a reduced sprint) are even more potential protagonists for the team.

Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter has finished in the Top 10 here on back-to-back occassions, and he’s had a career year. Form is a bit of a question mark, but he has the skills to thrive here if he’s in shape. Ramunas Navardauskas, Fabian Wegmann (an impressive 4th here in 2013), and sprinter Steele Von Hoff are other great options for the team. Europcar also has riders for multiple scenarios, with Bryan Coquard a potential contender in a sprint and Cyril Gautier and Yukiya Arashiro as options if the race is too selective for Coquard. Sky has their dangerous one-two punch of Geraint Thomas and Edvald Boasson Hagen, both of them capable of striking out for solo success or holding on for an uphill sprint. Giant-Shimano has an in-form Tom Dumoulin (who packs some underrated punch) and hilly classics specialist Simon Geschke (9th last year), and between them, a good result for the Dutch team seems likely. Lotto Belisol is stacked with talented riders for the parcours, with top-notch solo artist and very fast finisher Tony Gallopin in attendance and motivated, along with Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens, who could make things very interesting on the late climb, and strong one-day racer Jurgen Roelandts. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema is obviously an elite climber, but his great finishing kick might surprise some people; don’t rule him out even in a reduced sprint (he has a great chance to follow up Gesink’s unexpected victory with one of his own). Teammate Sep Vanmarcke may be known more for his cobbled classic prowess, but his punchy style and his ability to get over the small hills should translate well here.

It’s hard to pick out one Astana rider as the most likely to land a good result in Quebec, but the team bring a serious array of talent to the race in Jakob Fuglsang, Enrico Gasparotto, Borut Bozic, Francesco Gavazzi, and Liewue Westra, and that impressive cast has among them the variety of skillsets to cover any scenario. Tinkoff-Saxo, with Michael Rogers and Matti Breschel, also has options for multiple outcomes. AG2R’s climber trio of Jean-Christophe Peraud, Christophe Riblon, and Romain Bardet should make this interesting, and don’t count out Hugo Houle either in his home country. Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti, JJ Rojas, and JJ Lobato, Cannondale’s Moreno Moreso, Marco Marcato, and Davide Formolo, and Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski and Frank Schleck are other talented riders who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Arthur Vichot
Other Top Contenders: Rui Costa, Alexander Kristoff, Gianni Meersman, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Simon Geschke, Michael Albasini, Tony Gallopin

Stay tuned for plenty more coverage of the GP Quebec and the GP Montreal, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of both races.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Cephas.

September 11, 2014
GP Ouest-France 2014 Preview

Also commonly known by its older name, the Grand Prix de Plouay (Plouay being the Breton town in which it starts and finishes), the GP Ouest-France is a long and hilly circuit race. 229.1 kilometers from start to finish, the 2014 edition involves eight laps around a 26.9 kilometer circuit, followed by a single, final lap of a reduced section (13.9 km) of the larger circuit to close things out.

The Route

The route will take the peloton on several repeated trips up and over some short but challenging climbs; almost immediately after the beginning of each full lap, the pack will hit the Côte du Lezot, a little over a kilometer in length and with much of that distance at a gradient in the realm of 6%. From the top, it’s a descent followed by a long gentle ascent up to the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois and, roughly, the midpoint of the circuit. After a flat section and then a quick downhill run, the pack will take on the Côte de Ty Marrec, only about a kilometer in length but with a long stretch in the middle nearing 10%.

The main lap, 26.9 kilometers in length with a few uphill challenges along the way.

The final lap will still look quite familiar, but with a twist: the less challenging trip to the the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois will not be a part of the last lap, which cuts out almost half the distance of the full lap, thereby squeezing the ascents of the Côte du Lezot and the Côte de Ty Marrec closer together on the course for the final go-round.

The final lap, with both of the day’s tough climbs and less time for recovery in between.

The profile makes this a very open race, where a sprint finish is possible, but also where the aggressive, punchy types could conceivably escape from the bunch, most likely on the final climb of the Ty Marrec, and grab the victory for themselves. The 2013 edition ended in a sprint that was not dramatically reduced in number of contenders, though the long day did take its toll, helping Filippo Pozzato to nab a victory over other riders who would typically be faster in a sprint. A group finish may very well happen again in 2014, but the slightly amended final lap could make things interesting, reducing the amount of time that those who struggle on the Côte du Lezot will have before the next ascent begins and putting even more pressure on the heavier purer sprinter-types. Winning this race will require either the ability to charge up the steep stuff to escape the pack, the speed to outsprint them in a sprint, or some combination of both, to survive any selection and then outmatch any other survivors at the line. Ardennes-style specialists and strong-climbing sprinters are all over the startlist, with some teams bringing multiple riders for the variety of possible scenarios.

The Contenders

Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge is one of the most capable riders in a post-climb sprint in the entire peloton, and he showed in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, where he outsprinted Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel on his way to 3rd place, that he is on blazing form. He’s fast enough, especially when his opponents have begun to tire, that he’s even got a chance against the purer sprinters should a large group reach the line together, and he’s also capable of going on a solo strike if it looks to be the best move. As a true specialist for this exact sort of race, capable of winning in a number of ways, Simon Gerrans will be a top favorite. Teammate Jens Keukeleire is another excellent card to play on this rolling profile, having shown nice form with his first GC Top 10 in a WorldTour race at the recent Eneco Tour.

As an excellent escape artist, a strong climber, and a capable sprinter, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet also has all the tools necessary to contend in this race, and his skillset was on full display in last year’s edition when he put in a late solo move and survived until he was well inside the final kilometer. A tougher finale this year may be all he needs to turn that near miss into a victory. Of all the riders in this race capable of sticking an attack, Van Avermaet, who showed his good form with an Eneco Tour victory this month, seems among the likeliest to succeed, but he can’t be counted out in a reduced bunch sprint either. Young Silvan Dillier, 9th in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, is having a great year and could be another card for BMC to play in Plouay.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff comes into the race riding high, having the best season of his career and fresh off his recent win at the Vattenfall Cyclassics. Always a strong sprinter with a knack for the bunch gallops coming after longer days in the saddle, Kristoff has taken his game to a new level this year, climbing particularly well and holding up over some extremely lengthy one-day races to put in top results. He doesn’t have the same uphill ability as Simon Gerrans, but if the punchier types aren’t able to make this race selective enough to drop him, they’ll have a hard time outsprinting him at the end of the day (and so will any other sprinting specialist who manages to survive). Given the difficulty of the parcours, it’s not a given the Kristoff will stick with the lead group to the end to contest victory, but if he is there for a bunch kick, it will be hard to look past anyone else. Luca Paolini will be with him, and the Italian veteran has proven a valuable second throughout the year.

Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory racing is another top sprinter in attendance who could contend for victory if he can stay in good position over the last few ascents. Nizzolo came agonizingly close to winning the GP Ouest-France in 2013; he was well ahead of every other sprinter in the race with the finish line only a hundred meters away before Pippo Pozzato, who had waited much longer to start his sprint, passed him in the final few meters. As Nizzolo told VeloHuman this week, he’s extremely motivated to take the win in Plouay this year, and coming off of a runner-up performance in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, he is on sharp form. He’s one of the few riders in this race who has the top-end speed to challenge Kristoff should it come down to bunch sprint. Trek is fully committed to his chances, and Stijn Devolder and Danilo Hondo make up a strong support squad.

Giant-Shimano has the talented Luka Mezgec for a potential group finish. It won’t be easy to keep the young fast man at the front of affairs, but if he’s there, he’ll be a strong contender as one of the top-tier sprinters in the race, with some strong leadout riders for support.

Lotto Belisol has quite hand of cards to play, and it would be a big surprise if they didn’t have at least one rider in the Top 10 at the end of the day. Jurgen Roelandts is strong in a fast finish after a long day in the saddle; he was 4th here last year. Tony Gallopin has been away from competition for a few weeks, but he is a speedy finisher with a particular talent for getting into late moves. Tim Wellens showed immense strength in winning the Eneco Tour this year and he could get aggressive in the last lap. Jelle Vanendert is a specialist on the classics-style climbs who could try to get into a move over the Ty Marrec. It’s very hard to pick any one rider out of this group as the likeliest to succeed, but whatever happens, Lotto has several elite options for this GP Ouest-France.

OPQS is another well-staffed squad with plenty of options. Gianni Meersman is probably their best, on good form and particularly dangerous in a reduced sprint, with Matteo Trentin as a great alternative in that scenario should Meersman miss out, but Jan Bakelants is in good shape as well, and he’ll be among the top candidates to break clear of the pack in the last lap. Michal Kwiatkowski is on unknown form after a long break from racing, but he deserves a mention in any hilly one-day race, given a skillset perfectly tailored to the Plouay parcours.

Sky brings a strong one-two punch in Ben Swift and 2012 winner Edvald Boasson Hagen. Swift has the ability to hang on over some tough climbs to fight it out in the sprint. After a strong RideLondon, he didn’t perform up to his expectations in last week’s Vattenfall Cyclassics, but he told VH on Friday that he is feeling good at the moment, and that his rough day on the bike in Hamburg may have simply been a bit of training fatigue after a hard midweek block. This parcours certainly suits him. Edvald Boasson Hagen hasn’t shown the sprinting ability this year that he once displayed, but he’s still dangerous on a hilly parcours that could very well split up the pack.

AG2R has last year’s 3rd place finisher Samuel Dumoulin for a potential sprint, and they also have Blel Kadri, Romain Bardet and Christophe Riblon if they want to take an aggressive approach. Europcar has a very strong long-distance specialist in Cyril Gautier, and a top-notch sprinter in Bryan Coquard. Garmin-Sharp also has one strong rider for a sprint in Tyler Farrar and a few others who could look to get aggressive in classics specialist Sebastian Langeveld and in the versatile Tom Jelte-Slagter, a late addition to the startlist who is on uncertain form, but who does have the skillset to put in an excellent result on a profile like this if he’s in good shape. Astana could back Borut Bozic or Francesco Gavazzi in a bunch kick, or they could try to send Enrico Gasparotto, Andriy Grivko, or Maxim Iglinskiy up the road.

Sylvain Chavanel is a rider who could be very dangerous if he can escape from the pack, and he is most definitely on good form after winning the Tour du Poitou-Charentes this week. IAM Cycling also has Heinrich Haussler if this ends in a bunch gallop. Lampre-Merida’s young sprinting talent Davide Cimolai was an impressive 7th in Hamburg last week, and could be looking to get involved in a potential sprint here. Rui Costa is also on the startlist and obviously a dangerous rider on this profile, but he hasn’t raced since withdrawing from the Tour. Cannondale’s Elia Viviani landed a Top 10 in this race last year and if he can make it to the line, he’s shown nice form recently; versatile Marco Marcato will be a nice alternative. Movistar could try to set up a strong JJ Lobato for the sprint, with Fran Ventoso as a nice alternative. Romain Feillu of Bretagne – Séché Environnement has finished in the Top 10 in this race twice and could be another outside contender in a sprint. Matti Breschel of Tinkoff-Saxo is another who could be in the mix in a fast finish. Bardiani-CSF has options with the very speedy Nicola Ruffoni, the speedy and also strong-climbing Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli, and the always-dangerous-from-afar Stefano Pirazzi. Fellow Pro Continental Italian outfit Neri Sottoli has Simone Ponzi, who excels in the hilly circuit races, and Mauro Finetto, a good sprinter who can handle a few bumps. FDJ’s Arthur Vichot will like this rolling profile. Belkin has a strong squad with Lars Petter Nordhaug, Barry Markus, and Lars Boom all making the start. Julien Simon of Cofidis specializes in profiles like this and could be an outsider in a reduced sprint. Wanty – Groupe Gobert has talented veteran Bjorn Leukemans and in-form Jean-Pierre Drucker as cards to play.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Alexander Kristoff
Other Top Contenders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Gianni Meersman, Ben Swift, Luka Mezgec, Sylvain Chavanel, Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis of the race.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Lomophoto56.

August 30, 2014