Tag: Il Lombardia

Il Lombardia 2014 Post-race Impressions: Martin Takes Another Monument as Valverde, Others Hesitate in the Final Moments

Dan Martin closed out the year’s final Monument Classic with panache, jumping clear of a select bunch inside the last kilometer to deny some fast finishers in the group a chance to sprint for the win. New changes to Il Lombardia’s route certainly played their part in deciding the eventual winner of the race, with none of the many elite uphill specialists on the startlist able to get much separation on the climbs, but that didn’t deter the 27-year-old Irish star: he hung with the lead group and launched a brilliant late strike on the final flat to take the win while many of the of favorites simply watched him fly past. Martin may not have taken as many big results this season as he would have hoped, but his second Monument victory shouldn’t really come as a surprise, as he has flashed his great ability on numerous occasions throughout the year, only to be derailed several times by untimely crashes. After a great ride in La Fleche Wallonne, Martin looked to be in a great position to nab another Monument in the ensuing Liege-Bastogne-Liege and his first Grand Tour Top 10 in the Giro d’Italia. Crashes took him out of contention in both races, but he picked up his first Grand Tour Top 10 (in the Vuelta) and now he’s won that second Monument anyway. An explosive climber with a special talent for the one-day races and currently in his prime, Martin should be a major threat in the hilly classics for years to come.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has been a major threat in the hilly classics for years already, but he followed a familiar script in Il Lombardia, hoping for a reduced sprint at the end of a tough day; that plan didn’t work in Ponferrada last week (where a lack of cohesion in a strong chasing group left Valverde and Simon Gerrans sprinting for the lower steps of the podium behind Michal Kwiatkowski), and it failed again here. As strong as Valverde has been in 2014, his results have included a whole lot of near misses, but I’m not sure he plans on changing his approach any time soon.

Rui Costa landed another big result in a season also filled with near misses, but it can’t be said that he hasn’t given 100% trying to turn those close calls into wins: just as was the case in Montreal, where he finished 2nd, he made the attempt to jump clear late here but was unable to get any space, and still managed to add a nice result to his palmares. In fact, this was his first ever podium in a Monument Classic.

Tim Wellens of Lotto Belisol has been a revelation this year, and his 4th place in Il Lombardia is a nice addition to his already impressive list of achievements in 2014. He has explosiveness and has performed well on difficult profiles throughout the season. He tried to escape from the lead group over the Bergamo Alta, and though he did not succeed, his Top 5 finish in the company of an Olympic champion, a World Champion, and multiple Monument winners is something to be proud of.

The parcours of the new route was not as favorable to Joaquim Rodriguez, who could only manage 8th place after dominating this race in back-to-back years. Fellow climbing specialist Fabio Aru was confident coming into this race and earned a lot of attention as a potential contender, but the last two climbs just weren’t hard enough to launch the pure climbers to victory, and the young Italian had to settle for 9th.

Another rider who will be disappointed with his day in Italy is newly crowned World Champ Michal Kwiatkowski. He spent much of the day very close to the front of the peloton, looking to be in good shape, and with the way the race played out, one might have expected a strong challenge for victory from Kwiatkowski, but he was badly affected by cramps in the last 10 kilometers of the race, suddenly cutting the power to his engine just as things started to heat up. It’s not the result he was hoping for, of course, but it’s been a long season for Kwiatkowski, and now he’ll at least have an opportunity to recharge the batteries before what’s sure to be an exciting 2015 in the rainbow jersey.

With Il Lombardia in the rearview mirror, only one race remains on the 2014 WorldTour calendar! Stay tuned for the preview of the Tour of Beijing, and plenty more analysis as the season comes to a close.

-Dane Cash

Photo by MorBCN.

October 5, 2014
Il Lombardia 2014 Preview

Worlds may be over, but the 2014 cycling season isn’t quite done yet. There are still two events on the WorldTour calendar, including the final Monument of the year, Il Lombardia (formerly the Giro di Lombardia, the Tour of Lombardy). It’s a race with a lot of history, and the parcours (though updated this year) always provides plenty of uphill challenges to make for an exciting day; in recent years, those challenges have proven ideal for climbing specialist Joaquim Rodriguez, who has won the previous two editions.

The Route

Still a scenic ride through the hilly Lombardy region of Italy, the “Race of the Falling Leaves” has a new route with new climbs to overcome this year. Instead of starting in Bergamo, Il Lombardia 2014 will finish there, setting out from Como and weaving alongside lakes and over several climbs before the line after a total of 254 kilometers. The first vertical challenge is the Madonna del Ghisallo, which, in previous editions, featured much later in the route. This year, it will be crested only 58 kilometers into the race, but it will still inject plenty of pain into the legs early in the day. Roughly 8.6 kilometers at around a 6.2% average grade, the climb is significantly harder than those general numbers would suggest due to its irregular nature. Things flatten out for a few kilometers in the middle of the ascent, but on both sides of this reprieve are stretches where the gradient jumps over 10%.

After the Madonna del Ghisallo, things ease off for a while as the road heads toward Bergamo, which the riders will pass through a little over 130 kilometers into the race before embarking on a long, wide loop that will take them over some challenging climbs on the way back to Bergamo for the finish. The tough stuff starts in earnest with the Colle Gallo (7.4 km at 6%) after about 157 kilometers, and from there it’s mostly up and down to the line. After a fast descent comes the hardest climb of the race, the Passo di Ganda, 9.2 kilometers at 7.3%. Crested about 65 kilometers from the finish, it’s certain to force some selection. A tricky descent follows, interrupted by a short but very steep climb to Bracca, and then another downhill stretch to the foot of the Berbenno climb, which is likely to be a major battleground. 5.5 kilometers at 5.3%, there are a few particularly steep stretches early on, maxing out at 10%. From the top, it’s less than 30 kilometers from the finish line. The peloton will take on a fast descent and then ride on relatively flat roads until the final climb of the day, the Bergamo Alta. It’s only a little over a kilometer to the top, but the average gradient is a demanding 7.9%, and once the climb is crested less than 4 km remain to the line, mostly downhill and with plenty of twists and turns along the way; the winner of the race will likely be one of the first few riders over the Bergamo Alta, as there isn’t much room to recover lost ground after the climb. The ensuing downhill gradient flattens out for the final 500 meters of the race, which could set up a reduced sprint to the line if a small group of riders are together in the lead.

As an autumn race, Il Lombardia is no stranger to difficult conditions. Purito’s two victories have both been rainy affairs, and there is again a chance of rain this year; with so many descents on the docket, wet roads would certainly shake up an already unpredictable race.

The Contenders

The Final Monument Classic of the season, Il Lombardia tends to draw most of the top specialists of the hilly one-day events looking to take one last big prize on the year; the 2014 edition of the race is no exception. Joaquim Rodriguez returns to Il Lombardia hoping to collect his third straight win. It won’t be easy. He has been on decent form in the second half of his season, but he wasn’t quite at the level he’d planned to be during the Vuelta and he did not make as much of an impact at Worlds as maybe he’d hoped. Still, he has been unstoppable in Lombardy in the past few seasons, landing three straight podium performances, and he put in a strong ride (to take 5th) in this week’s Milano-Torino. I’m not sure the new parcours suits him quite as well as past editions did, but Purito is motivated to get more out of this year than he has so far. Katusha has a lot of firepower in the race to support Rodriguez or to provide alternatives. Daniel Moreno was 6th in this race last year and is a particularly strong sprinter even on flat roads should he find himself in shootout late, and he showed good form in Milano-Torino, coming in 3rd. The winner of that race also happens to ride for Katusha: Giampaolo Caruso, always aggressive and having a strong year (he was 4th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege), will be another weapon in Il Lombardia, as will Alexandr Kolobnev. The team will need all hands on deck, given the startlist and a less Purito-friendly profile, to defend their title.

Alejandro Valverde was runner-up in 2013 and the alterations to the route should be just fine with him; he couldn’t stay with Rodriguez on the Villa Vergano climb last year, and he no longer has to worry about that this year. Valverde’s versatile skillset makes him a difficult opponent. He may have Grand Tour-winning climbing talent, but he also has an especially strong sprint, and that could be critical to victory here. Few riders likely to survive the entire day at the head of affairs are as quick at the finish as Valverde; expect to see his rivals do everything they can in an attempt to drop him before the final few kilometers (which will be a pretty tall order). They know that Valverde, coming off a podium performance at Worlds, is probably the top favorite for the race, even with Rodriguez here looking for a third straight win. Movistar also has Giovanni Visconti and several top climbers in attendance, among them, Beñat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre.

One rider who may have the top speed to challenge even Valverde in a reduced sprint finale is new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski. His daring escape from the peloton in the Ponferrada finale may be his most famous accomplishment so far in his career, but his finishing kick is very impressive in and of itself. If he can hold on over the tough climbs, he can contest the victory in a number of ways, whether that means launching another bold move or holding on for a group finish. The rainbow jersey isn’t the only threat on a loaded OPQS team: Rigoberto Uran is a two-time podium finisher in this race, Pieter Serry was an impressive 7th last year, and Wout Poels and Gianluca Brambilla have been particularly strong in 2014.

Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin has been 8th, 4th, and even 2nd in this race already in his career; the 2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner thrives in the hillier one-day races, and Il Lombardia definitely qualifies. Martin’s sprinting chops seem to have improved this year should a small group reach the line together, and he should again be one of the top contenders in the race. Ryder Hesjedal and Tom-Jelte Slagter will give Garmin-Sharp a strong, multi-facted attack plan.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador may not have the one-day resume to match his stage-racing palmares, but on a climber-friendly parcours, few are as dangerous. He will need to get clear of the faster finishers, but the abundance of ascents, especially the Berbenno climb (though not especially challenging by itself, it does have steep stretches and it comes near the end of a day full of ups and downs) will give him opportunities. Success in the Monument Classics has eluded Contador so far in his career but he’s had a brilliant year and looked to still be on strong form even in October with a 6th place in Milano-Torino. Teammate Oliver Zaugg was the surprise winner of this race in 2011, and he’s not having a bad year himself.

The back-to-back Giro di Lombardia victories of BMC’s Philippe Gilbert may seem like a lifetime ago now, but he should still be a threat on this parcours. Coming off a strong ride at Worlds, where he was really the only rider in the first chase group doing any work attempting to close down Michal Kwiatkowski and still landed 7th, Gilbert looks to be on good form. The short climb that closes out this race will be a nice potential launching pad for Gilbert; alternatively, he could rely on his strong sprint if he sticks with the lead group over the top. Samuel Sanchez, a four-time podium finisher here, can’t be overlooked either. 6th overall in this year’s hotly contested Vuelta is nothing to sneeze at, and his age probably hasn’t diminished his elite descending skills, which will come in handy here. Tejay van Garderen and Cadel Evans bring even more firepower for BMC.

Now former World Champion Rui Costa wasn’t able to make it into the Gerrans/Valverde move in Ponferrada, but he finished respectably with the group behind, and the form he showed in Montreal isn’t likely to have faded just yet. This is an excellent profile for Costa, who is particularly adept at breaking away from the pack on hillier days and capable in a reduced sprint as well, and he is highly motivated to pick up more victories this season.

AG2R may have explosive Carlos Betancur and Tour de France runner-up Jean-Christophe Peraud on the startlist, but Romain Bardet looks to be the team’s strongest option, having shown some surprising one-day racing chops this season (10th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 5th in Montreal). Il Lombardia suits him about as well as any classic on the calendar, and he’ll be among the most dangerous potential escapees on the late climbs. Rinaldo Nocentini, 2nd in Milano-Torino, is obviously on terrific form and could be in contention as well, as could Domenico Pozzovivo.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema has the uphill talent to get involved at the business end of the race, and an underrated finishing kick, especially after a lumpy day (he outsprinted Joaquim Rodriguez for 2nd in the Clasica de San Sebastian in August). With Wilco Kelderman, another very complete rider, Lars Petter Nordhaug, and Laurens Ten Dam as well, Belkin has options. Lotto-Belisol is another team with several different weapons here: Tony Gallopin will hope to stick with the premium climbing favorites over the harder ascents so that he can challenge for victory with a late escape or in a reduced sprint finish, while Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert are both excellent bets to get aggressive on the hills. Orica-GreenEdge, as might be expected in a race with this many hills, also has a stacked squad, with Michael Albasini, an excellent climber with a fast finish, probably the strongest option and Daryl Impey, Esteban Chaves, Pieter Weening, and Adam and Simon Yates all dangerous, too. Astana has elite uphill talent Fabio Aru, who may not have the classics experience, but who can attack on a climb better than almost anyone in the professional peloton; meanwhile, Enrico Gasparotto is an always-underrated contender in the hilly one-day races, and he was 5th in last year’s Tour of Lombardy. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot, Cannondale’s strong and on-form Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, and Damiano Caruso, Giant-Shumano’s Tom Dumoulin, Warren Barguil, and Simon Geschke, Bardiani’s Edoardo Zardini, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, Trek’s Frank Schleck (a decent 9th in Milano-Torino) and Julian Arredondo, and Caja Rural’s Luis Leon Sanchez are on the long list of outside contenders who will hope to be in the mix as well. Sky’s Ben Swift deserves the final mention; it seems highly unlikely that he’d survive to the finish, but he’s a more capable climber and one-day racer than most other sprinters, and this profile at least leaves the door open just a bit.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Michal Kwiatkowski
Other Top Contenders: Daniel Martin, Alberto Contador, Daniel Moreno, Philippe Gilbert, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis, and check back soon for the preview of the final race of the 2014 season, the Tour of Beijing, and more interviews and analysis!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Matthew Peoples.

October 3, 2014
Il Lombardia 2013 Post-race Impressions: Purito Again

The Narrative

As exciting as Purito’s second Monument win in rainy Northern Italy was, it wasn’t particularly surprising. Tommy Voeckler tried to make things interesting with one of his characteristic long distance attacks, and at one point he had a fairly decent gap, but his solo move was doomed to fail when the contenders actually decided to chase him down as they closed in on Lecco, and all his grimaces were for naught. From then it was a battle between the favorites who had survived hard climbs and tough conditions, and despite the fact that everyone knew it was coming, Joaquim Rodriguez was able to distance all of them with his own decisive late attack.

Inches away from victory in the World Championship after a nearly successful late uphill strike, Rodriguez was clearly on elite form, and primed for a major win, even if it didn’t come on the World Championship stage. He won Il Lombardia last October, and this year, the external conditions and his physical condition echoed 2012: he shot off the front of an elite group of survivors at the same time as he did last year on the Villa Vergano, and again soloed to the victory in the rain, escaping a spirited pursuit from Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, and Rafal Majka.

Takeaways

At 34, it seems like Rodriguez is riding at the highest level in his career, more explosive on the climbs than ever. As Chris Froome is officially out of the Tour of Beijing, the victory in Lombardy gives Joaquim Rodriguez his third WorldTour Numero Uno, and just as he did in 2012, it was a late move on an Italian ascent that nabbed him his biggest win of the year and the overall title. The rider who spent so many years coming up just short in one-day events made it look easy, and expected, on his way to another highly coveted achievement, the top of the rankings.

The other strong performers weren’t all that surprising either, though I’ll make a few brief notes to at least provide a few takeaways other than “Purito is really good, but we knew that already.” For one, Alejandro Valverde has been a hot rider all season, and, like Purito, has stood on the podium in a boatload of huge races: Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Vuelta a España, the World Championship Road Race, and now Il Lombardia. He took the points classification at the Vuelta for his constant presence near the top of the leaderboard on stage after stage. And yet, Valverde will finish the year without a single WorldTour victory. His showings these past two weekends have typified what was all too common for the Green Bullet this year: he hung at the head of the peloton and made it onto the back of every move except the final, successful, race-winning one, and outsprinted everyone else in his pack of pursuers for 2nd or 3rd. Obviously he still has a ton of talent, but he’s come up just short so many times this year, and it makes me wonder whether he might not have benefitted from taking a few more risks trying to get into late moves or making his own.

Rafal Majka will be a name to watch in 2013. Top 10 at the Giro and on the podium in Lombardy, Majka was one of a group of four riders, the other three of whom have all won Monument classics, who were clearly the best climbers in the race. He turned 24 in September, which means he’ll be 24 almost all of next season, too, and it seems likely that by this time in 2014, he’ll have officially won his first pro race. Saxo Bank has to be excited to have such a talented young rider coming into his own just as their team leader is starting to draw questions. Right behind him, Dan Martin has had a year both immensely satisfying (victories in Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Volta a Cataluyna, and a stage in the Tour de France) and extremely frustrating (illness derailed his top 10 bid in the Tour de France and he crashed out of the Vuelta a España and the World Championship Road Race). Sunday was a bit of both for the Irish star: with only a few hundred meters to go, the Garmin rider was a sprint against Majka away from a podium spot in his second Monument of the year when a mechanical/crash ruined his shot. He settled for 4th. It was hard to predict his form coming into Lombardy because of his bad fortune in so many races leading up to this one, but he showed that he’s hot right now and goes into the Tour of Beijing as a leading candidate for victory, assuming he doesn’t have another crash or mechanical issue when it matters.

I’m most interested in mentioning the rider who finished 5th: Enrico Gasparotto. If you’re keeping score at home, you may have missed the fact that Gasparotto has now been in the top 10 in Il Lombardia, GP Montreal, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and Amstel Gold after winning Amstel Gold in 2012, and yet, he is constantly overlooked by prognosticators (like me) for teammate Vincenzo Nibali. Gasparotto obviously can sprint and attack on the slopes, and maybe next time he takes on a one-day climber’s race, he should get a little bit more respect; even if Nibali hadn’t crashed, the Shark doesn’t have much of a sprint and hasn’t shown the kind of explosive bursts of the Purito/Valverde/Moreno/Martin variety. Gasparotto, on the other hand, won a huge race (Amstel Gold) last year and has almost kept pace with these other huge names on numerous occasions since. To Nibali: he crashed out on wet Italian roads, something he managed to deftly avoid during his dominant Giro d’Italia (he did crash in the rain during the Grand Tour, but he was able to get back on the bike and keep going). He crashed and clearly burned up energy the past weekend at the Champs race as well. Obviously, he’ll be frustrated with these occurrences, but I’m not sure how great a shot he has in these sorts of races anyway. Hopefully we’ll have a few chances next year to see him at 100% and not on the deck in crunch time.

The rest of your top 10 finished together: the sprint for 6th was rather easily won by the ever present Dani Moreno (what a year for Rodriguez’s friend and lieutenant, and behind him were young Pieter Serry (watch out for him next year as a third or fourth option for OPQS in the climber’s classics after top 10s here and in San Sebastian this year), aging Franco Pellizotti, Italian champ Ivan Santaromia, and late-form-finder Robert Gesink. Ivan Basso, Thibaut Pinot, Domenico Pozzovivo, and Nairo Quintana were among the riders also finishing in Moreno’s group who didn’t make it in the sprint for the rest of the top 10 positions.

Peter Sagan couldn’t hang with the group over the early climbs and was out of the wet very early. Gilbert and Van Avermaet were both able to stay with the main contenders all the way to the final decisive climb, and they finished respectively in the top 20. Meanwhile, I wasn’t thrilled that Movistar wasted now world champion Rui Costa as a domestique once again, but perhaps he was tired after a week of photo opportunities and didn’t have the legs to contend for the victory. Diego Ulissi and Rigoberto Uran both fell off the pace when the going got tough, disappointingly, and Ulissi’s teammate Michele Scarponi abandoned due to illness.

All things considered, this year’s Il Lombardia managed to stay very exciting despite its similarity to both last week’s World Championship race and last year’s edition of Il Lombardia. Purito made the viewing experience worth it, and became a two-time Monument winner in the process.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Nico Franano.

October 10, 2013
Il Lombardia 2013 Preview

High Stakes Hill-climbing in Italy, Round Two

For all those big name riders who missed out on last week’s climber’s classic in Italy, this Sunday provides a perfect opportunity for redemption: another climber’s classic in Italy, 2013’s final Monument: Il Lombardia. It’s the last one-day WorldTour race of the year, the final Monument, and it’s well-timed, a race for the uphill specialists coming after a rare Championship race geared towards the same crowd, meaning that the contenders will be at the top of their game for a race that has, in the past, often featured riders in fading form.

Last weekend’s grueling Worlds proved to be a competition for the GC types in the end, but up until the last lap around Florence, it wasn’t so clear whether they’d be able to drop Spartacus and his type; Il Lombardia, though, has steeper, more selective slopes that will require even more climbing prowess, putting the spotlight squarely on the lighter men in the peloton.

The Valico di Valcava kicks things off before the halfway mark, 11 kilometers at an 8% gradient, a climb worthy of a high mountain stage in a Grand Tour. After another bump in the road, the Colle Brianza, the peloton takes on the very challenging wall of Sormano, touching gradients in the mid 20% range, with it’s summit a little more than 80 kilometers before the finish. It’s followed by a steep downhill and some flat land to give those dropped a chance to catch up, but regardless it will take a lot out of the legs of the heavier riders. The winding road up to the Madonna del Ghisallo is an irregular ascent that fluctuates between 10% sections and short periods of respite. Next up is a challenging descent, and then another 20 kilometers of flattish roads before the Villa Vergano climb, which, since being added to the parcours in 2011, has been the battleground on which this Monument has been decided. After so many intense lumps along the way to the finish in Lecco, the final test of 3.4 km at 8%, with a steeper run towards the top, is sure to launch the winner, or the small winning group, to victory.

Purito won in Lombardy last year, finally taking a well-earned first Monument title, and he’s the leading favorite again this year. He was agonizingly close to the rainbow jersey last Sunday when his attempt to solo away on the final slopes was shot down by a hard-charging Rui Costa. But if he’s maintained that top-level form into this Sunday, Rodriguez will have another excellent opportunity here, with a final launching pad perfectly designed for his punchy style that could create more of a gap than in Florence and less of a chance for chasers to catch back up. While said climb is almost 10 kilometers from the finish and followed by a downhill and then a flat (though technical) run-in towards the line, but the difficulty level of the slopes will inspire furious attacks that Purito can hope will prevent another sprint finish; not that he’s bad in a drag to the line, but certainly he’d prefer to avoid another last second disappointment to someone with a better kick. His teammate Daniel Moreno will be an excellent alternative option, especially if more than one rider is at the front of the race in the last kilometer. Moreno’s explosive style has netted him some big wins so far this year; he’s shown that not only can he hang on when things get hectic in a climber’s finish, but that he can be the one forcing the selection.

Last weekend’s climactic finish makes previewing this weekend’s race easier: every other member of the star-studded cast that made it into Rodriguez’s final move last Sunday should be counted as a favorite again this weekend, including, of course, the two riders who are teammates again in a race of trade teams: Alejandro Valverde and Rui Costa. Despite all of his incredible talent, Costa might have been riding this race in support of Valverde had he not taken the rainbow jersey in Florence; Movistar has undervalued Costa in the past. However, now that he is the World Champion, Costa will probably be given freedom to make his own moves, and who can doubt his ability and his expertise after last week. Still, Valverde is Valverde, and if nobody is able to break free, he’ll be the one to beat in a sprint finish. Movistar has even more cards to play than these two: Nairo Quintana may not have much of a one-day resume, but if there is any one top tier classic for the young rider to make his mark, it’s Lombardy. Giovanni Visconti and Benat Intxausti have both won similarly challenging races in Italy this year (during the Giro).

Home favorite Vincenzo Nibali managed to finish in 4th place last weekend despite having to dig deep to get back into the peloton after a late crash; who knows what might have been had he had that extra energy to use in the finish. The Giro winner will love the chance to show his strength in another challenging parcours, and he’s sure to make a move to break with the bunch when the road goes up late, as he doesn’t have much of a sprint to contend with the likes of Valverde, Moreno, or Costa. This lack of top-tier drag-racing talent has kept Nibali from having much success in single day races so far, but he’s on the form of his life, one of the top 5 riders in the sport this year, and it’s almost guaranteed that he’ll attempt to use his elite soloing ability to take the win. He may have a tough challenge climbing to the top of the podium, but of all the contenders, I see Nibali as by far the most likely to finish in the top 10.

Sky’s Rigoberto Uran took a nasty fall on a wet descent in the waning minutes of the championship, taking himself out of the running for the final push. It’s a shame, because the explosive rider might have made a splash. He was on the podium in Lombardy last year (in fact, he was on the podium all the way back in 2008 as well), and he has the tools to improve on those performances here in 2013. Surprisingly, Uran has yet to take that big marquee classic victory (last year’s Gran Piemonte was a great first step at the 1.HC level, but a Monument win would be on a whole new plane). With the Sergio Henao for company (and as a good alternative, as Henao has had some fine results in one-day races), Uran will be a fierce challenger for the victory Sunday.

Michele Scarponi lasted for a few moments in the decisive move during the World Championship race, and he’s been close to victory on numerous occasions in the past few weeks, coming up short again and again in the Vuelta. He’s another good home option riding for an Italian squad, but I think the real favorite on Lampre-Merida is young Diego Ulissi, who just took the midweek Milano-Torino. He has a great sprint (as he showed in the opening stage of this year’s Tour de Pologne, where he came out on top in a reduced bunch finish in a group fifteen strong after a late climb) and clearly the form to mix it up on the ascents. He’s not a great descender, and he’ll hope against hope for good weather, but if the conditions aren’t too nasty, Diego Ulissi could pose a serious challenge against the collection of better known, more established riders in the race.

Dan Martin was one of a number of big names last week to suffer an unfortunate crash in the rain, but the fall did not seem to have any lasting effects. 2nd in the 2011 edition of this event, where he outkicked a group that included Purito and Ivan Basso for the title of runner-up, Martin has had quite a string of misfortune after his amazing early season success. If he can manage to stay on the bike the whole race, he’s primed for success here, with a parcours perfectly suited to his skillset. He denied Rodriguez a second Monument when he passed him en route to the win at Liege-Bastogne-Liege this spring, and he’d love the chance to collect a second one himself here at Il Lombardia in similar late-breaking fashion.

Saxo-Tinkoff’s Alberto Contador was one of the many DNFs last weekend as well, but he was fifth in Milano-Torino, suggesting he has found some late season form after disappointing time and again in 2013. He’ll have allies trying to outrun the better sprinters on the final climbs, and he also has a strong team behind him. Rafal Majka was runner-up at Milano-Torino. He’s actually never won a pro race, but he’s come close a number of times and he’s got a great finish to match his climbing legs. Nicolas Roche finally came good after years of being touted with a great showing in the Vuelta, and he’s another option for the team.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo nabbed fourth in Milano-Torino. He’s had a very strong 2013 and he’s kept a high level of climbing form all year. Carlos Betancur looked better last weekend than he did during his disappointing Vuelta, and should he find the form that went missing sometime this summer, he could surprise for his team this Sunday.

With Bauke Mollema out, Robert Gesink leads Belkin into the year’s last Monument. He showed an impressive sprint in Canada and he’s obviously a great climber. He heads up a strong team: Lars Petter Nordhaug had a good World Championship race, Laurens Ten Dam is another great climber, and Tom-Jelte Slagter is a versatile rider with a fast finish.

Philippe Gilbert has won this race twice, as recently as 2009 and 2010, but that seems like another lifetime for the Belgian star. He’s still got a great kick but he isn’t climbing as well as he used to. It’s not entirely out of the question that Gilbert finds those legs on Sunday, and if he manages to keep up with the attacks from the climbing heavyweights, obviously he’s a big favorite to outrun them at the line. BMC teammate Greg Van Avermaet is similarly positioned, a great all-rounder for whom Lombardy’s climbs might be just a bit too much. Strong climbers Ivan Santaromita, Mathias Frank, and Tejay van Garderen may be better options for BMC than the former champ Gilbert.

Perhaps more likely is that Peter Sagan keeps up with Nibali et al. He just missed out in Florence, leading his group across the line for 6th place behind the climbing stars, and while Lombardy has more challenging climbs, it’s also shorter than the World Championship race. The young Slovakian has sometimes struggled in the most grueling of endurance races, and maybe with fewer kilometers to tackle, he’ll be more up for the ascents. His handling ability will be useful on the windy roads and he’ll surely be the man to beat in a sprint if he can hang on, though I don’t think the odds are in his favor. Teammate and two-time Giro d’Italia winner Ivan Basso finished 4th in Lombardy in 2011 and will be a better bet to stick with his fellow GC types. He showed good form in the Vuelta before abandoning on a day of nasty weather in the mountains, and he has a surprising finishing kick.

Omega Pharma – Quick Step has a stable of all-rounder talent who will also be pushed to the limit, but who are capable of surprising. Michal Kwiatkowski has a very fast finish and when he’s on form, he can climb at a very high level, and Sylvain Chavanel, in his last WorldTour classic with OPQS, is a great bet to try for a long distance strike.

A few other outsiders: Tommy Voeckler, Franco Pellizotti, Damiano Cunego, Chris Anker Sorensen, Alexandr Kolobnev, Rinaldo Nocentini, Warren Barguil, Thibaut Pinot, the Radioshack duo of Jan Bakelants and Andy Schleck, and Orica-GreenEdge’s trio of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, and Simon Clarke, who was impressive in the World Championship road race. For anyone with ambitions of winning, it will be hard to overcome the odds in one of the biggest events on the calendar against the top talents in the world all on form from their championship runs, but the late season classics have been full of surprises and excitement this year.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Joaquim Rodriguez

Podium

Rigoberto Uran, Vincenzo Nibali

Top 10

Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin, Diego Ulissi, Robert Gesink, Michele Scarponi

-Dane Cash

Photos by Jered Gruber and Laurent Brun.

October 5, 2013