Tag: ITT

Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Castelrotto › Alpe di Siusi – 10.85km (ITT)

Just in case Stage 14 was not decisive enough for you, Giro organizers planned a critical mountain time trial for the day after the queen stage.

10.85km from start to finish, the stage has an average gradient of a little over 7.2% all told, though the hard climbing only starts after 1.8km. From there it’s pretty steady the rest of the way up.

Sunday’s stage is all about who can generate the most watts per kilogram at this point in the race, following an extremely difficult Saturday. A few days ago I thought this would be a pretty straightforward stage to predict, but given the way things played out in Stage 14, I’m not so sure now.

Vincenzo Nibali is a cautious favorite pick. At peak form, Nibali would be the clear top contender—but he looked to be just a bit off his best Saturday. I still think he combines TT ability with climbing legs better than anyone else on the startlist, but it could be closer than expected.

Steven Kruijswijk has forced himself into the conversation here. He doesn’t get a lot of credit as a time trialist, but he was a very impressive 5th in last year’s 14th stage of the Giro. Combined with the way he’s been going uphill, he’s a real contender for the stage win here.

So is Esteban Chaves. TTs aren’t really his thing but he’s not the worst rider against the clock, and it shouldn’t matter too much with the gradient of this climb. Chaves is flying in this Giro.

Then there’s Alejandro Valverde. A few days ago I would have thought he’d be in with a shot at the win here but he really struggled in Stage 14. On the other hand, one thing that makes a guy like Valverde a perennial GC contender is his ability to deliver consistently through three weeks. I’m not counting him out after one bad day.

Ilnur Zakarin and Rafal Majka both have a chance on this stage. Majka in particular has done very well in Giro mountain time trials in the past. Rigoberto Urán, Andrey Amador, Bob Jungels, and Primoz Roglic are others who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Steven Kruijswijk | 3. Esteban Chaves

May 22, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Radda in Chianti › Greve in Chianti – 40.5km (ITT)

The Giro’s ninth stage is a critical 40.5-kilometer individual time trial with a very intriguing profile. There is a significant net altitude loss on the day, meaning that while there is some climbing to do, the heavier TT specialists should really enjoy this one.

The course has a few technical sections along the way. The main challenge comes in the final third of the stage as the riders take on a climb of about 5km at a little under 4%. From the top, it’s downhill almost all the way to the line.

A few days ago, Tom Dumoulin would have been my heavy favorite for this stage, given the form he showed early in the Giro. I’d still name him as my top favorite, but his less-than-stellar showing on Stage 8 has me a bit concerned that maybe he’s not feeling 100% at the moment. Still, this time trial suits him well and he’s elite against the clock.

Fabian Cancellara is the other top TT specialist on the startlist, and if he weren’t recovering from illness he’d be a sure thing to contend for the stage win. As it stands, he’s definitely still a contender, but again, it’s hard to say just how well he’ll do. The descents do suit him.

Bob Jungels can run hot and cold but when he’s good, he’s good. He could be in the mix. Ilnur Zakarin should be in contention as well. He looks very strong right now. Rigoberto Urán is the other GC contender that I see having a good shot here. He’s been a bit quiet so far in this race, but he has to know that Stage 9 is his big chance to open up a gap to his pink jersey rivals.

Stefan Küng, Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde, Primoz Roglic, Steven Kruijswijk, and Andrey Amador are others to watch in the ITT.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Ilnur Zakarin

May 15, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Apeldoorn › Apeldoorn – 9.8km (ITT)

The 2016 Giro d’Italia opens in the Netherlands with a short, flat time trial. Without any climbs to speak of and good weather in the forecast, the corners will be the only real challenge on the day. Expect the specialists to shine here in the first battle for the pink jersey. In particular, those with top-end speed will like their chances.

Fabian Cancellara and Tom Dumoulin are the two big favorites here, though Cancellara apparently has the flu, which could make this Dumoulin’s to lose. He won’t have many opportunities like this to take a Giro stage win in his home country, and this TT suits him well.

Jos Van Emden is another home rider with a chance. He’s been a bit quiet since his second-place ride in the Tour of Qatar’s stage 2 TT, but he showed at last year’s Eneco Tour TT just how good he can be when things go his way. Bob Jungels, Anton Vorobyev, Mathias Brandle, Jack Bobridge, and Ramunas Narvadauskas are others who could be in the mix.

Keep an eye on Mikel Landa and Esteban Chaves on the day. The time trial mileage in this Giro could be the biggest challenge for both riders, and Stage 1 will be a good opportunity to get an idea of where they are in terms of form against the clock right now before the more critical Stage 9 ITT.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Jos Van Emden.

Be sure to check out my overall race preview over at VeloNews, and don’t miss the Recon Ride’s pre-race show! Giacomo Nizzolo and Jakob Fuglsang both make an appearance in the podcast.

May 6, 2016
World Championships 2015: Individual Time Trial Preview

With the World Championships well underway, the elite men’s individual time trial title is up for grabs in Richmond. Bradley Wiggins is not around to defend his rainbow jersey, but there are plenty of chrono specialists looking to succeed him as the world champ.

The Route

The lion’s share of the 53km men’s ITT course sits outside the city of Richmond. Only in the final few 10km or so do the roads start to get particularly urban. Before that, it’s mostly rolling countryside.

The official profile may appear to have plenty of ups and downs, but this is a pretty flat course.

The riders will set out from the King’s Dominion amusement park and work their way south into town, where the route gets slightly (but not a lot) more technical in the final run-in to the finish.

While the profile highlights every single small riser and short downhill stretch, this is not a particularly hilly time trial, and we can expect the TT heavyweights to get up to pretty high speeds.

The Favorites

Tony Martin, in the hunt for his fourth world title, is the top favorite to take the victory. The long, mostly flat course suits him very well, and without Bradley Wiggins around, no one can match Martin in terms of peak ability. It’s been an odd year for Martin, who hasn’t built up as dominant a record in the TTs as he did in 2013 or 2014, but he’s the most accomplished rider on the startlist and in his prime, so it’s hard to bet against him.

Tom Dumoulin ran 3rd in 2014 and has consistently been among cycling’s best against the clock, but it’s hard to know just how strong he’ll be after an exhausting Vuelta. Dumoulin fought hard for a GC position all the way to the final mountain stage, and that takes its toll. Still, he’s had a bit of time to recover and could be in the mix.

Rohan Dennis may be the best-positioned to challenge Martin for the win. It won’t be easy, but Dennis has had an excellent season and proved his form leading BMC Racing to a TTT title on Sunday.

It would be a huge surprise if the world title went to any rider outside that trio. Adriano Malori is among the best of the rest—he’s had a comparatively quiet season at the highest level of racing but has won several Continental Tour TTs, including one very recently over Tony Martin at the Tour de Poitou Charentes.

Pre-injury Taylor Phinney probably expected to be challenging for the world title by 2015, but things haven’t quite gone as planned over the past two seasons. Still, Phinney looks very strong right now and is riding in from of home fans. Given what he proved to be capable of in time trials early on in his career, he can’t be counted out.

Vasil Kiryienka was very impressive in the Giro’s long time trial and always does well at Worlds. Alex Dowsett can run hot and cold but (along with Malori) he had enough form to help Movistar to a podium spot in the TTT Sunday. Matthias Brändle, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta, Luke Durbridge, Rasmus Quaade, Wilco Kelderman, Jonathan Castroviejo, Rigoberto Urán, and Stefan Küng are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Tony Martin
Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Rohan Dennis
Other Top Favorites: Adriano Malori, Taylor Phinney, Vasil Kiryienka, Matthias Brändle, Rasmus Quaade, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta

VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.

Photo by Sean Rowe (CC).

September 22, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Burgos › Burgos – 38.7km (ITT)

For the powerful engines in the Vuelta peloton who have been struggling in the mountains, the Stage 17 time trial, likely to play a pivotal role in deciding the overall winner of the race, is just what the doctor ordered.

38.7 kilometers in full, it’s a time trial that suits the specialists—though perhaps a bit less than a quick glance at the profile would suggest. The first 10km trends generally uphill, with a few steeper stretches. Then it’s a quick downhill, a short roller, and a descent onto a long section of flat.

Around kilometer 30 there is another bump in the road, followed by a climb of about a kilometer at over 6%. Then comes a descent down into a flattish (slightly uphill finish).

While the parcours is far from a high-mountain time trial, it does have a few ups and downs and some technical stretches. We can expect the time trialing heavyweights to go really well, but I do see a few areas that will give the climbers at least something to be happy about.

Tom Dumoulin, currently 4th overall, is the best time trialist in the race by a significant margin, and he has everything on the line, as he is just 2 minutes away from the race lead. At his best, he would dominate this course, which suits him very well. However, an ITT after two weeks of hard racing and hanging with the GC favorites is uncharted territory for Dumoulin. I still see him as the favorite, and I expect him to do very well, but he might not perform quite to his peak ability after such a tough Vuelta.

Vasil Kiryienka will likely be his biggest challenger for the stage. Kiryienka has been excellent this year, and he has already taken a big Grand Tour time trial victory this season in the Giro. Unlike Dumoulin, he has not needed to go quite as deep in the Vuelta. He’s got strong climbing legs and won’t be troubled by the rollers on the course. In short, I think he will give Dumoulin a run for his money for Stage 17.

Luis León Sánchez was just 12 seconds behind Kiryienka in the that Giro TT. He’s on great form right now and will have a rare chance to do his own thing here. Like the aforementioned pair, he’s also handy on rolling climbs and should go very well on the parcours.

Nelson Oliveira is on great form right now and is strong in the discipline. He could contend for the stage win. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has turned himself into a TT specialist at this point in his career and has put up several nice results recently. Stephen Cummings, Maciej Bodnar, Niki Terpstra, Sylvain Chavanel, and Jerome Coppel are others to watch for on Stage 17.

I think Joaquím Rodríguez will do a bit better than most people seem to expect—despite his reputation for losing big in the ITTs, he’s become a respectable rider against the clock over the past few years. Unfortunately for Purito, I also think we will see Fabio Aru putting up a strong ride. Astana knows how important the time trials are and even though Aru is far from a chrono specialist, he’s got a strong engine and will be fresher than most riders after several tough days in the mountains. In the same vein, I see Rafal Majka doing particularly well on Stage 17. He’s shown ability against the clock even on flatter TTs in the past, and he’s got a great chance at podium in this Vuelta if he can put it all together here.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Vasil Kiryienka | 3. Luis León Sánchez

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 17.

September 9, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1 (ITT): Utrecht > Utrecht – 13.8km

The Tour de France gets underway with a flat 13.8-kilometer time trial in Utrecht. It’s a little longer than a traditional prologue, but still short enough that those riders with a bit of pop could enjoy a chance to churn out a very high tempo for the duration of the trip along the course. There are no hills to speak of, though there are several corners that will require some deft bike handling.

Tony Martin is the best pure time trialing talent in the race, and an excellent bike handler. He’d probably prefer something a bit longer to put his big engine on display, but this is still a good course for him. It’s probably safe to assume that Martin has had his eye on the yellow jersey since the Stage 1 was announced, and when Martin focuses his full attention on a time trial, it’s almost impossible to beat him.

Tom Dumoulin will have a chance. His explosiveness should translate favorably on this shorter parcours, and he is, of course, riding in front of a home crowd. He’s had trouble beating Martin head-to-head in the past, but this is an ideal scenario for him to overcome those difficulties.

Fabian Cancellara also has a good shot here on Stage 1. The terrain suits him and he looked strong in the Tour de Suisse time trials. The veteran Classics star knows how to handle pressure and in the spotlight of the Tour’s busy first stage, he should shine.

The stage winner will very likely come from the aforementioned trio of favorites, but there are a few outsiders who could contend . Adriano Malori has been knocking at the door of the elite time trialing club for a little while now. Short courses tend to suit him. Watch out for the Italian Movistar rider. Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Rohan Dennis, Alex Dowsett, Peter Sagan, and Greg Van Avermaet are others with a chance at Stage 1 success and the yellow jersey on offer as well.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Tom Dumoulin | 3. Fabian Cancellara

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 1. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 3, 2015