Tag: ITT

Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Treviso › Valdobbiadene – 59.4kkm

Sacha Modolo’s victory on Stage 13 was not too surprising, but the carnage near the finish that dropped Alberto Contador (slightly) and Richie Porte (significantly) down the GC leaderboard was. Two weeks into the Giro d’Italia, there have been several days with major GC consequences that didn’t seem likely to have much of an effect on the overall race at first. Nevertheless, Stage 14 could shake things up more than any of those days have so far.

At nearly 60km, this is one long race against the clock. The profile could be split into two halves. The first 30km of the stage are quite flat, and will favor the larger engines in the peloton. The second half of the stage is a bit hillier. Things start off with a roughly 5km climb at an approximately 4% average gradient. Then comes a descent and another flat stretch, before another ascent into a rolling final few kilometers.

The sheer length of this parcours, and the lack of any serious climbs (especially in the first 30km) will put the ITT powerhouses in their element.

The Giro GC conversation happens to have several top all-rounders with elite time trialing skills who should thrive even on the flats, and in the absence of chrono specialists at the level of a Tony Martin or a Tom Domoulin, this stage is likely to come down to the pink jersey hunters.

Richie Porte is certainly among the favorites, given his excellent time trialing skills. Two days ago, I would have named him the heavy favorite here. However, both his morale and his body (his knee, in particular) appeared to be affected by the Stage 13 crash. 60km is a long time to be in a very specific position, and if Porte isn’t feeling great, or isn’t feeling particularly motivated now that he’s so far off track in the GC conversation, he could easily falter. It’s very hard to tell just how he’ll do. If he’s at or near his best in spite of his recent troubles, he should win.

Rigoberto Urán won last year’s Giro time trial, and he’s developed into an impressive chrono talent over the last few years. However, his form has not been at quite the level he probably hoped for in this race, and he recently crashed. Just as is the case with Porte, it’s hard to say how that will affect his chances, but judging from the riding he’s done since going down on Stage 12, I don’t think his fall had that much of an effect on him, and I do think that he’s been completely focused on this opportunity since the start of the race, so I’d imagine he’ll do pretty well here in Stage 14.

Alberto Contador has been a strong time trialist for a while, but he’s been stellar in the ITTs over the past 12 months or so. It’s an area of his game that may have been overlooked. In multiple recent face-offs that he’s had with Chris Froome in which most expected the Briton to put time into the Spaniard, Contador has come out on top. Unfortunately from a prognostication standpoint, Contador has taken a physical beating in this Giro, crashing multiple times. If he can’t position himself comfortably on the bike for the long period of time required in this ITT, he could suffer. Contador’s a fighter, though, and he can ride through pain better than most, so I think we can expect a strong ride.

Fabio Aru will probably lose time to a few of his rivals here, but his teammate Dario Cataldo almost certainly will not, and could challenge for the Stage 14 win, as might Tanel Kangert. Richie Porte’s Sky teammates Leopold König and Vasil Kiryienka, Alberto Contador’s Tinkoff-Saxo teammate Michael Rogers, Movistar’s Andrey Amador, Ion Izagirre, and Giovanni Visconti, Kristoff Vandewalle, Luke Durbridge, Patrick Gretsch, Sylvain Chavanel, and Ilnur Zakarin are other riders to watch in this very long race against the clock.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Richie Porte | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 14 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2015
World Championships 2014: Individual Time Trial Preview

Most major time trials take place in the middle of stage races, when riders have already put a lot of mileage into their legs and may be facing more in the days that follow. The Worlds ITT, however, takes away those complicating factors and allows the chrono specialists to face a standalone challenge. The time trial is often known as the “race of truth,” and it’s hard to imagine a more honest indicator of talent against the clock than this yearly battle for the rainbow stripes.

The Route

47.1 kilometers in total, the men’s elite time trial parcours begins with a long stretch of mostly flat roads, on which the riders will be able to hit very high speeds. Then, around 15 kilometers before the finish line, the road kicks upward for the first of the day’s two main climbs. It’s an irregular ascent, but at no point is it overly challenging. The descent that follows, however, is a difficult one. At around the 40 kilometer mark the road kicks upward again for a shorter but steeper climb. Then comes a speedy descent and a flat final few kilometers.

The 2013 route was considerably longer (57.9 kilometers instead of 47.1), but this year’s edition does include a few uphill tests that, while not overly demanding, could make a difference in the day’s outcome.

The Contenders

Defending champion Tony Martin is the heavy favorite here. It would be a surprise if anyone were to take the victory ahead of the German, who is on the hunt for his fourth consecutive title. The late bumps shouldn’t trouble him too much, and he’s an expert bike handler for the downhill stretches on the route. He may be just a bit off his best form right now, but his Vuelta ITT victory was evidence enough that he is in good shape, and that may be all he needs. He was 46 seconds ahead of the runner-up in 2013, and has been dominant once again this year.

Martin’s biggest challenge is likely to come from the aforementioned 2013 runner-up, Bradley Wiggins. Wiggins has been enigmatic on the road this year; he occasionally flashed his brilliant ability (winning chronos in the Tour of California and the Tour of Britain, along with his own National Championship ITT), but on the whole he simply didn’t ride in all that many races in 2014. He appears to be riding well right now, and he should be able to handle the late climbs better than most of the time trialing specialists in Ponferrada. It is harder than ever to predict which races Bradley Wiggins is motivated to contest these days, but with a chance to make a statement in the twilight of his career on the road, I expect him to go full gas here.

Tom Dumoulin of the Netherlands racked up an amazing string of 2nd place finishes this year. He’s one of the world’s best in the time trial, but he unfortuantely had a great deal of scheduling overlap with the rainbow jersey wearer in 2014, and that led to countless runner-up rides. Still, he is in good shape right now and he will be eager for one last shot at victory over Tony Martin. This a nice enough parcours for Dumoulin, who is a capable climber. He has an excellent opportunity to get onto the podium, especially with last year’s 3rd place finisher Fabian Cancellara skipping the Worlds ITT this year.

Vasil Kiryienka has had some excellent results late this season and he can handle this profile. He may spend most of his time playing second fiddle to Sky’s GC stars, but he’ll be a dangerous outsider here. Adriano Malori of Italy is a massive time trial talent on sharp form, but the final two climbs will make it difficult for him to challenge for victory. Still, expect a strong performance. Rohan Dennis took some time to round into form during the Vuelta but he seems to be getting there now, and this is a nice parcours for him. Tobias Ludviggson is a rider whose talent exceeds his results this season; he has had trouble avoiding misfortune (rain and crashes, specifically) in many of his chronos in 2014, but if he can stay out of trouble he has a lot of power.

Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Alex Dowsett, Kristof Vandewalle, Jesse Sergent, Sylvain Chavanel, Jonathan Castroviejo, and Jan Barta are others on the list of fringe contenders who will hope to be in the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Tony Martin
Podium: Bradley Wiggins, Tom Dumoulin
Other Top Contenders: Vasil Kiryienka, Tobias Ludviggson, Adriano Malori, Rohan Dennis, Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Kristof Vandewalle

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis during the race, and stay tuned for the Worlds Road Race preview, coming very soon!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Andrew Sides.

September 23, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Santiago de Compostela › Santiago de Compostela. El Final del Camino – 9.7 km

The Vuelta’s final stage is here! After Alberto Contador’s decisive mountain victory in the penultimate day of the race, the short individual time trial up next won’t have much of an impact on the General Classification, but stage honors are still on offer, and there are plenty of riders who will like their chances to close out the last Grand Tour of the year with a win.

The 9.7 kilometer route begins with a flat section and then a short downhill stretch, followed by a long section of slight ups and and downs (it averages more up than down) that evens out with about 3 kilometers to go. Then comes a quick descent and then the flattish (there is a very, very minor gradient) final 1.5 kilometers. Without much in the way of topography, and at less than 10 kilometers, it’s going to be an extremely fast stage. It may rain, and it could be a bit windy, both factors that could definitely shake things up in a chrono like this.

The Stage 21 profile suits the real specialists in the time trialing discipline, but a 9.7 kilometer ITT after three weeks of tough racing is different from a short ITT to start a Grand Tour. Everyone will be feeling the effects of the long jorney through Spain. That could make for some interesting results in the Vuelta’s last day.

One star time trialist who should still be feeling good even after all the challenging climbs of the race is Sky’s Chris Froome. Barring a bad crash by Contador, Froome won’t have any chance of taking enough time back from the race leader to move up from 2nd place, but he’ll still want to put in a big ride and maybe come away from the race with a stage win. He has looked stellar in the past few days (a significant improvement over the way he looked in the Vuelta’s first time trial), and this will be a nice chance to end the Vuelta on a high note. He won a similar short chrono back in June in the Dauphine. Starting late in the day, he’ll be able to gauge his efforts against those who have gone before, and he’ll also probably face a bit less wind.

Movistar’s Adriano Malori was underwhelming in the Vuelta’s first race against the clock, but this short, flat test suits him perfectly. He took his first WorldTour win in Tirreno-Adriatico back in March on a very similar profile, beating out Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara in the process. He should contend for the win here.

Trek’s Kristof Vandewalle is another chrono specialist who should be in the mix. He’s been hard to beat against the clock recently. He took a win over Malori in the closing time trial stage of the Tour de Pologne last month. Teammate Jesse Sergeant, very strong in flat ITTs, will be another top contender on Stage 21.

Garmin-Sharp’s Rohan Dennis hasn’t had as much of an impact on this Vuelta as maybe he would have hoped coming in, but he’s an elite time trialist who will love this chance to land a result before the race is over.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador can’t be ruled out, having come in a close 2nd to Froome in the short ITT that opened the Dauphine. Despite his comfortable hold on the red jersey, he’s not one to pass up a chance at victory.

Michael Matthews could surprise some people: he’s quite effective against the clock in a shorter chorno. Maciej Bodnar, Daniele Bennati, Alexey Lutsenko, Manuel Quinziato, Jonathan Castroviejo, Tobias Ludvigsson, Cameron Meyer, and Patrick Gretsch are others who could contend for stage honors here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Adriano Malori | 3. Kristof Vandewalle

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Vuelta a España. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading! Stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VH Facebook page, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s preview of the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal, the last WorldTour race before the World Championships in Spain. VH will of course be previewing the main events of Worlds as well, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 13, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10 (ITT): Real Monasterio de Santa María de Veruela › Borja – 36.7 km

Winner Anacona led the peloton into the Vuelta’s first rest day with a win from the breakaway on Stage 9. Now it’s on to the critical Stage 10, a 36.7 km individual time trial. The parcours should open up some significant time gaps among the top GC contenders. The course starts out with a gentle uphill that leads into a short but steep Cat. 3 climb crested 11.2 kilometers into the stage. Then it’s all downhill to the finish. It’s not a straight-out run to the line, with some twists and turns along the way, but it’s not extremely technical. This is likely to be a very high speed chrono.

Tony Martin is the big favorite for stage honors. This is route that will favor chrono specialists, and he is the world’s premier time trialist. He’s also a great descender. It’s hard to see anyone outmatching his engine over 36.7 kilometers.

Behind Martin are several time trialing specialists and GC riders with top-notch chrono ability who should make the battle for Top 3 on the stage a tight one. Fabian Cancellara is obviously a prolific time trialist, and he’ll be one of the few riders with a shot of beating Martin in the World Champs later this month, but form is a bit in question at the moment. He has fallen off the pace even on a few of the flatter stages in this race, and though he’s likely give this time trial far more effort than he has on any stage so far, it may not be enough to match up with the likes of Martin. Cancellara is a strong descender and this is a nice parcours for him, but victory on Stage 10 would be a lot to ask.

This ITT is central to the GC hopes of Chris Froome, and he is one of the few red jersey hunters who excels even on a flatter chrono profile. His time trial performances in this year’s Tour de Romandie and the Criterium du Dauphine were stellar, and if he can recapture that strength here, with motivation running high, he’s likely to be among the top finishers on the day.

Alberto Contador is another GC rider with serious time trialing talent, and he’s a great descender to boot. If his time trialing engine is in as good shape as his climbing legs, he should be able to deliver a top-notch performance on Stage 10. Rigoberto Uran has developed into an elite talent against the clock as well, and he looks to be rounding into form in this race after a disappointing first mountain stage.

Movistar’s Adriano Malori had a hot start to the year, winning a Tirreno-Adriatico time trial ahead of Martin and Cancellara. He hasn’t had as much success in the latter half of the season, but after post-crash injuries robbed him of a chance to take a Grand Tour ITT win in the Giro d’Italia, he’ll be motivated to go for this. Trek’s Kristof Vandewalle beat Malori by 3 seconds to take his first WorldTour win the Tour de Pologne chrono last month, and he’ll be another outsider for stage honors. BMC’s Rohan Dennis put in an underwhelming ride in the Eneco Tour’s time trial stage, but he’ll be eager to show his new team what he’s made of here. Bob Jungels (who is targeting this stage especially), Jesse Sergent, Tobias Ludvigsson, Vasil Kiryienka, Stef Clement, Jonathan Castroviejo, and GC riders Wilco Kelderman and Nairo Quintana (who has improved against the clock this year) are others who could be in the mix on Stage 10.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabian Cancellara

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 10, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 1, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20 (ITT): Bergerac › Périgueux – 54 km

Following the victory of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas on Stage 19, there are only two days of racing left in the 2014 Tour de France. Stage 20 is the Tour’s only time trial. A chrono in the penultimate stage of the race might have been an epic final battle for the yellow jersey, but Vincenzo Nibali has that pretty much wrapped up. The remaining steps on the podium, however, are still in play, and a fierce fight will rage between three riders for those two spots. Stage honors are obviously up for grabs as well.

At 54 kilometers, this is quite a long time trial. The stage has a rolling profile from start to finish, but there are no categorized climbs on the docket; these are not challenging ascents, and they won’t offer much solace to the climbing specialists. The intermittent descents will be taken at pretty high speed, but the route is not terribly technical, which most of the riders will appreciate given a possibility for a bit of rain.

It’s the sort of time trial that favors the high-endurance riders, and one stands head and shoulders above the rest in this race. Reigning ITT World Champ Tony Martin will be the big favorite for the stage. He’s obviously a massive talent, but he’s also in stellar shape right now. On this long course, one tailored towards the real power specialists, it would be a big surprise for anyone to outmatch the German on Stage 20.

Tom Dumoulin is a great young talent, yet another rising star on the Giant-Shimano roster. The 2014 Dutch National Champion can handle a roller or two, making this a nice route for him. He was 2nd to Tony Martin in both time trials in this year’s Tour de Suisse. This chrono is a bit longer than those in which he’s been most successful in the past, but in the absence of many other top specialists against the clock, he’s a contender behind the heavy favorite, Tony Martin.

It’s been some time since Tejay van Garderen has put in a truly stellar time trial, but this has typically been a strong suit of his, and he looks to be on good form now. He should be able to land a top result.

Jean-Christophe Peraud has always been great against the clock, and in the shape he’s in at the moment, he will be another favorite among the GC contenders. Crashing during a rainy time trial ruined his 2013 Tour campaign; hopefully he can overcome that challenge this year.

Vincenzo Nibali has had a lot of success in time trials recently, and the way he’s been riding in this Tour, he’s likely to continue that run of great results. It’s a nice course for him, with a few hills and a chance to shine on the descents. He has shown a desire to assert his dominance at every possible opportunity in the Tour de France, and I don’t think he’ll make an exception on Stage 20.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS is not showing the sort of form in this Tour that he displayed early in the season, but in a time trial, all he needs is one good hour in the saddle. At his best he’s an elite chrono talent. The profile suits him perfectly, and he won’t mind a bit of rain either.

Sylvain Chavanel of IAM Cycling has not had a great year but he is the reigning French National Champ in the discipline. This stage is a big target for him. OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, OGE’s Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, Sky’s Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Vasil Kiryienka, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers, NetApp-Endura’s Jan Barta, and Movistar’s Ion Izagirre are others who could put in strong rides on Stage 20.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is not known for his time trialing skills, but he’s been strong against the clock this year, and on this form (and with the benefit of being able to gauge his efforts against almost every other rider, courtesy of starting late in the day) he could surprise some people. Alejandro Valverde, Spain’s National Champ in the ITT, is a good chrono rider, but he can’t afford to underestimate Pinot’s ability if he wants to stand on the podium in Paris.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Tom Dumoulin

There are only two stages left in this year’s Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of both of them, and of every WorldTour race left on the calendar. Also, check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 20.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 25, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19 (ITT): Bassano del Grappa > Cima Grappa (Crespano del Grappa) – 26.8 km

It isn’t really a surprise that most of the maglia rosa hunters took a measured approach to Stage 18 (which went to Julian Arredondo from the breakaway) with something as important as Friday’s ITT on the horizon. Only three stages remain in this Giro d’Italia, and only two of them are likely to have any effect on the overall outcome: it’s all down to the wire in the first Grand Tour of the year, and Stage 19 will play a huge part in the final GC standings.

The 26.8 kilometer individual time trial that awaits is not your average chrono. It is dominated by a Category 1 climb that kicks off around 7.5 kilometers into the stage. Hill climb TTs are not uncommon, but ones that combine gradients this high with such grueling length are rare: the Monte Grappa climb is a beast, 19.3 kilometers long at an average of 8%, with a few very steep sections near the top, including one that touches 14%. It’s about as long and, on average, about as steep as the Montecampione climb that launched Fabio Aru to victory in the Giro’s fifteenth stage. Unlike the summit finishes that have preceded it, however, this race against the clock won’t allow riders to bunch up and ride together along the lower slopes, conserving energy for late attacks. Each rider must face this challenge on his own.

This is a mountain test that will reward the best climbers in the race, especially those who combine lightweight frames with good endurance. Most of the riders generally considered time trialing specialists will not have a chance; the GC men are the likeliest contenders. Nairo Quintana is the heavy favorite. He’s the best climber here, a featherlight who excels at going uphill all by himself for extended periods of time. He’s good enough in a standard time trial, but on a stage like this, he is going to excel. Anything less than a win on Stage 19 will be a disappointment for the Movistar rider.

Rigoberto Uran dominated the Giro’s first time trial, but this will be a very different test. He’s been climbing well throughout the race and he obviously has the engine to produce a high wattage for quite a while. I imagine that he’ll be able to strengthen his hold on a podium position with this ride, but picking up time on Quintana will be a big ask.

Domenico Pozzovivo is my third favorite. Illness has slowed him down late in this race, which is unfortunate, because he had planned to be more aggressive in this last week. Still, he’s looked good in the past two tough mountain finishes, and he’s shown off some seriously improved chrono chops recently. He was decent in the first ITT of the race, but a hill climb like this suits him very well.

I expect success from Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka in Stage 19. He was just a hair better than Uran in the mountain ITT in last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he’s extremely motivated to fight for the podium. I’m not sure if the vicious gradients of the Monte Zoncolan will suit him compared to his rivals, so this could be his best shot.

Wilco Kelderman is a stronger time trialist than most of his GC rivals on a flatter course, but that advantage will fade on these slopes; obviously he’s still an excellent climber, so a strong result is likely, but in terms of gaining time on GC I think he’d prefer a profile that doesn’t suit the other contenders as well. Fellow 23-year-old Fabio Aru, on the other hand, may be something of an unknown in the time trial, but if there were ever an ITT for the climbing star to shine in, this is it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing wonderfully, but his affinity for uphill attacks does not necessarily translate that well in a chrono; he has not excelled in time trials, even in the hillier ones, in his career. BMC’s Cadel Evans is fading fast as the Giro gets harder and harder and I think he will struggle to limit his losses here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal lost some time in Stage 18 and will be hoping for a rebound. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski does not have a good track record in the ITT but he’s on very strong form at the moment and this will be an excellent opportunity for the climber to get a rare decent result against the clock.

Sky’s Dario Cataldo, the OPQS trio of Thomas de Gendt, Wouter Poels, and the very surprising Gianluca Brambilla, Androni’s Franco Pellizotti, the Tinkoff-Saxo pair of Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers, and Trek’s Julian Arredondo (there are KOM points up for grabs) are probably the best non-GC candidates for stage success here but it would be a pretty big surprise to see anyone who isn’t hunting the maglia rosa take the day.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Rigoberto Uran | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Saturday’s finish atop Monte Zoncolan will be a thriller, so check back for the preview after the last rider crosses the line in the Stage 18 ITT. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 29, 2014