Tag: Joaquim Rodriguez

La Flèche Wallonne 2016 Preview

“Ardennes Week” is in full swing. The peloton took on the Cauberg this past weekend, which can only mean it’s time for the Mur de Huy this Wednesday…

The Route

La Flèche Wallonne is surprisingly short, particularly this year, at just 196 kilometers.

There are officially 12 climbs on the menu, starting at kilometer 67 and running all the way to the finish. The first 11 will serve to wear away at the legs of the peloton, particularly the 1.3km, 8.1% Côte de Cherave, but this race is almost always decided on the final climb, the Mur de Huy.

A winding 1.3km at 9.3%, the Mur is a brutal challenge that punishes those who don’t time their jump perfectly. Experience matters on the steep slopes of the climb, which maxes out at over 25% for one small section. Things do flatten out near the finish line, meaning that the pure climbers will want to go a little earlier than those with a bit of a sprint.

The Contenders

Alejandro Valverde makes the start in pursuit of a record fourth career win at La Flèche Wallonne, and he looks like a strong candidate to pull it off. For one, the race and the final climb in particular suit him perfectly. These sorts of climbs have been Valverde’s bread and butter for years. He looks strong this season too. Meanwhile, some of the other names that come to mind for this race have yet to really show off any stellar form, making Valverde that much stronger a race favorite. Movistar also has Daniel Moreno, a former winner himself, as another card to play, and Carlos Betancur could be up there as well.

Joaquím Rodríguez probably should have won this race more than just the once, but he’s always a dangerous contender on this sort of finishing climb. It’s hard to say what kind of shape he’s in, but he’ll almost certainly be in the mix.

Form is a question mark after he pulled out of País Vasco, but rarely is Dan Martin not in shape to contest this event, one of his favorites. He has always done well here. Etixx-QuickStep also has Julian Alaphilippe, runner-up just last year. If anyone can challenge Movistar’s top-to-bottom strength, it’s the Irish-French duo leading the Belgian supersquad.

Speaking of former runners-up, don’t overlook Sergio Henao. He has been flying all season and should be able to fight with the very best on the Mur. Sky has a nice support squad to put him into position, and he has an underrated kick on this sort of finish.

Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge is always one to watch at La Flèche Wallonne—he’s never won, but he’s almost always in the mix. Lotto-Soudal has several options with Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin, and Jelle Vanendert. Look to one of the three (probably Wellens) to try something long-range. Philippe Gilbert looked out of shape at Amstel and is probably beyond the point of being considered a favorite here, but he did win the race once upon a time and so can’t be counted out. BMC teammate Samuel Sánchez may be more of a threat.

Amstel Gold Race winner Enrico Gasparotto, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Michael Woods, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Warren Barguil, Wilco Kelderman, and Roman Kreuziger are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Sergio Henao, Joaquím Rodríguez
Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Michael Albasini, Daniel Moreno, Rui Costa, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Tim Wellens

Photo by Stacy Clinton (CC).

April 20, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2016

Episode 39: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2016 Pre-race Show

“Ardennes Week” kicks off Sunday at the Amstel Gold Race, and continues with La Flèche Wallonne Wednesday. The podcast covers both races with a double-header pre-race show.

[powerpress]

The Recon Ride dives into two races this week: Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take a closer look at the Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne, and the punchy riders who are likely to feature as protagonists on the short steep climbs of Dutch Limburg and the Belgian Ardennes.

Photo by Ed Webster (CC).

April 15, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Volta a Catalunya 2016

Episode 35: Volta a Catalunya 2016 Pre-race Show

The podcast previews the 2016 Volta a Catalunya, which boasts one of the strongest startlists in recent memory.

[powerpress]

The Classics may be in full swing now that Milano-Sanremo is in the bag, but some of cycling’s biggest GC stars will be busy doing what they do best this week in eastern Spain. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano discuss the Volta a Catalunya, among the oldest stage races in the sport.

Photo by Dane Cash.

March 19, 2016
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 20 Preview

San Lorenzo de El Escorial › Cercedilla – 175.8km

Stage 20 will almost certainly be the final stage of the Vuelta with GC implications, and fortunately for anyone hoping for a close fight, the profile should set up a thriller.

The road from start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial to the finish in Cercedilla won’t be easy, with four Cat. 1s along the way. The road goes upward right from the start, gradually rising into the foot of the Puerto de Navacerrada, 9.4km at 6.6%. Then comes a flat section and then descent to the foot of the Puero de la Morcuera, 11.5km at 5.4%. It’s a grand chance to get acclimated to the climb: from the top, the riders will descend down to a flat stretch before circling back around and going right back up again, albeit on a partially different route for 10.4 total kilometers of climbing at 6.6%. One more downhill leads into the last official climb of the 2015 Vuelta.

11km at 5.3%, the Puerto de Cotos is challenging by itself but it’s really the incessant nature of the climbing on Stage 20 that will do the most damage. The gradients on the final climb aren’t that steep.

After the KOM summit, there’s a 7km flat section before a descent to the finish, where the road kicks up again in the final moment for 200 meters at almost 10%.

As the last mountain stage in the Vuelta, Stage 20 will be a critical opportunity for the GC riders to change their fortunes before Madrid. Even without a summit finish, the motivation should be there for the top riders in the race to make this a challenging day. The up-and-down profile does make for an appealing route for the breakaway, though, and the riders up the road early will at least have some chance at success if the GC favorites hold off on any serious hostilities until late in the day.

If the GC men are the ones vying for the stage, Alejandro Valverde is the prime pick for the stage victory. His skillset is perfect for Stage 20, where the climbs might not be hard enough to blow up the group of overall favorites before the finish. Valverde is also highly motivated to nab a result now that he’s feeling good again after a few off days.

Joaquím Rodríguez is an obvious candidate as well with this finish, though Daniel Moreno is also looking strong. Moreno may be an even stronger candidate for victory right now, and Katusha does not appear to be afraid to let Purito’s loyal lieutenant strike out on his own every once in a while.

Fabio Aru will certainly try to distance Tom Dumoulin on this stage, and while I was under the belief a few days ago that he’d be successful, I’m not so sure after Aru’s crash on Stage 19. He looks to be a bit worse for the wear. What’s more, Tom Dumoulin has a lot of pop and could shine in this finish if he can make it over all the climbs with the leaders. He can’t be counted out for the stage victory.

Esteban Chaves, Rafal Majka, and Nairo Quintana are all showing strong enough form, and are all far enough behind Dumoulin, that it wouldn’t be all that surprising if any of them launched a stage-winning attack on the final categorized climb.

For riders who will be candidates for breakaway success, look to the strongest of the riders who have been consistently involved in the battle to make it into the early move. Romain Sicard, Nicolas Roche, Rodolfo Torres, Alessandro De Marchi, Darwin Atapuma, Rubén Plaza, and Giovanni Visconti are all on the long list of potential winners from afar.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

Don’t miss the Recon Ride’s third and final Vuelta podcast, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20.

September 12, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part III

Episode 26: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part III
The Vuelta a España remains a hotly contested race even into its third week, which gives the Recon Ride plenty to talk about in this third and final Vuelta show.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a look at where things stand at the Vuelta after 16 stages, and what’s on tap as the year’s final Grand Tour comes down the home stretch, with a bit of help from veteran cycling journalist Andrew Hood.

Photo by bego paterna (CC).

September 8, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Luarca › Ermita de Alba – 185km

The Vuelta’s 16th stage will be among the hardest in the race. The road is angled sharply upward or downward for the majority of the day, and the finish is brutal.

The stage starts on a climb, the Cat. 3 Alto de Aristébano, which could spring the day’s main breakaway. If not, the agressors will have more opportunities to jump clear on the pair of uncategorized climbs that follow, or the Cat. 2 Alto de Piedratecha that comes next.

A less challenging stretch follows as the road slopes mostly downward from the top of the Piedratecha until about kilometer 80, where a short Cat. 3 awaits. Then comes another short climb, this time a Cat. 2, followed by a descent, a brief flat section, and then a trio of climbs that get progressively harder to close out the stage.

First up is the Cat. 2 Alto del Cordal, 8.5km at 5.7%. It’s more of a leg softener than anything. It’s followed by testy downhill into the vicious Alto de la Cobertoria, 9.8km at an 8.7% average gradient. The climb is harder than the metrics would suggest, as the average gradient is closer to 10% if you take out a less challenging final kilometer. Given the closeness of the GC battle, it would make sense for the red jersey hopefuls to initiate hostilities on this climb, even if there is a special-category ascent still to come. We’ll see if anyone has the guts to try.

One last downhill follows the Cat. 1 summit, and then it’s on to one of the most painful climbs in the race, the Alto Ermita de Alba.

The gradients on the Alto Ermida de Alba are such that holding the wheel of the next rider in line will offer virtually no benefit—only the climbing specialists will be able to survive this climb.

It’s only 6.8km, but the average gradient is 11.1%, with a particularly nasty midsection that kicks up over 21% for a little while. It’s not exactly easy after that, with gradients still hovering in or around the double digits for the rest of the way up.

There are still a few mountain stages to come in the Vuelta, but Stage 16 is the last day with a summit finish, and there’s a long, flat time trial on the horizon, which means that the climbing stars need to put everything they have into this showdown to build up an advantage. In terms of the stage victory itself, this does look like a great profile for the long-range specialists, with climbs from the get-go that will favor the more uphill-oriented riders in the battle to get into the break, and then a wild finale that will be very hard to control. On the other hand, the smart play from any team other than Giant-Alpecin will be to drive a torrid pace over the climbs to weaken those who aren’t as suited to the gradients. I see the peloton vs. breakaway showdown as a 50-50 proposition.

Joaquím Rodríguez has been stronger than Fabio Aru on the past two stages in a row, and Stage 16 will be considerably harder than Stages 14 or 15 were, with some incredibly steep sections that should open up serious gaps between riders at the end of the day. Rodríguez attacked efficiently and effectively on Stage 15 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take Stage 16 as well—the last climb suits him perfectly. In any case, I see Aru as the other top favorite out of the GC men.

Rafal Majka is very much in the conversation as well. He couldn’t follow Rodríguez on Stage 15 but smartly rode in Aru’s wheel for a little while before letting the Italian go on ahead, only to pass him again before the line. I’m not sure this climb suits him all that well as it is just so steep, but he’s looking fresh and aggressive at the moment.

Nairo Quintana is certainly looking better than he did earlier in the race and will be an excellent candidate for stage success because of his GC position, far enough behind the leaders that he may get some breathing room if he tries an attack again. With 3 minutes over Quintana, Aru and Rodríguez can afford to let him go on the move. The same could be said for Esteban Chaves, who is likely to lose ground in the coming time trial. Chaves is riding into completely unknown territory right now, contending into the third week of racing at a Grand Tour, but he doesn’t look to be slowing down much.

Should the break contest the win, I’m looking at the same names that have come up in that conversation so far. Rodolfo Torres is my top pick of potential candidates for long-range success, as he combines form and climbing ability with a clear interest in going on the move. He was in an early breakaway on Stage 15 that was ultimately reeled in before the main move got clear, and I expect him to try again on Stage 16. The same goes for Fabio Duarte. This final climb is one for the real specialists, and that makes both Colombians dangerous.

I also expect Sky to try to get someone into the breakaway. Sergio Henao finished within 2 minutes of Purito on Stage 15 despite working for Nieve most of the afternoon. He’s clearly in excellent shape. Ian Boswell, Nicolas Roche, and Vasil Kiryienka could also try to get involved in the break.

On form and ability, Mikel Landa of Astana and Giovanni Visconti of Movistar are obvious candidates to take this stage from a breakaway if they get up the road, but the big question is whether they will be gunning for the move or helping team leaders—Landa has shown a willingness to do his own thing despite team orders, and Visconti rides for a squad whose chances of making a GC impact are dwindling, but it’s hard to predict what they’ll do.

The Europcar quartet of Jérôme Cousin, Romain Sicard, Pierre Rolland, and Cyril Gautier, BMC’s Darwin Atapuma and Alessandro De Marchi, Kenny Elissonde, and Bart De Clercq are other riders to watch out for as potential stage winners from a breakaway move.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Joaquím Rodríguez | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Nairo Quintana

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Vuelta a España analysis. Stage 16 is followed by a rest day, so the preview of Stage 17 will be up on Tuesday. In the meantime, keep an eye out for a new episode of the Recon Ride.

September 6, 2015