John Degenkolb took a second straight sprint victory in Stage 5, but his sprinting rivals will have to wait a little while for a shot at revenge, as the Vuelta hits its first serious uphill test in Stage 6. Things will start out calm, as the peloton will set out from Benalmádena and take on over almost 50 kilometers of relatively flat coastal roads before heading inland. Not long after the route changes direction, the road kicks upward to climb the Alto de Zafarraya, a challenging Category 2 of 12.3 kilometers at 5.7%. After the KOM point, the climbing continues on and off over a stretch of rolling roads (with the Category 3 Alto de los Bermejales among the uphill sections that the pack must overcome). Things flatten out again with about 40 km to go, and they stay that way for a while as the peloton heads toward Granada. The riders will pass through the outskirts of town and then the city proper, hitting a pair of intermediate sprint points along the way, but then the route will take them southeast to challenging finale on the Alto Cumbres Verdes, the first Category 1 climb of the Vuelta a España. It is only 4.6 kilometers in length, but it has an average gradient of 7.8%, and that number doesn’t tell the whole story either. Things get particularly steep after the first kilometer, with a significant stretch that hits almost 13% coming between kilometers 1 and 2, and not a whole lot of respite after that, as things stay very steep all the way to the line.
The first real climbers’ day of the Vuelta, Stage 6 should see some GC action on the final slopes. The Cumbres Verdes climb is a tough enough uphill test to open up gaps between the finishers, and the top contenders for the red jersey will want to making strong opening statements on the high gradients.
The day’s breakaway will have a chance of going the distance on the profile, but they will also have a few factors weighing against them. A very long section of flat before the final climb will significantly boost the chances of the chasing pack, and the punchy GC riders will have extra motivation to reel in anyone up the road thanks to the bonus seconds on offer at the finish. If the red jersey hunters spend the final hour of the race watching each other and not injecting the pace, a strong rider off the front will have a nice opportunity for stage honors, but otherwise, a showdown among the big-name climbers should be on tap.
Though the final few kilometers are very steep, this is a short climb, and that will play into the hands of the riders who can find an extra gear for a brief charge up a high gradient. Joaquim Rodriguez will love this finish. He is on terrific form right now and with motivation through the roof, he’ll be hard to beat on this terrain. Teammate Daniel Moreno is also particularly well-suited to this challenging ascent.
Movistar’s Nairo Quintana would prefer a longer finishing climb, but he has the skillset to pull out an advantage whenever the gradient nears 10%, and with the form he showed in the Vuelta a Burgos, he will be hard to catch if he goes on the attack in the Stage 6. Like Purito, Quintana also has a particularly dangerous teammate in Alejandro Valverde, who lost a few seconds on Stage 3 and will be eager to get back onto the same time as Quintana. It won’t be easy to counter Movistar’s one-two punch.
Chris Froome showed on Stage 3 that he’s feeling strong in this Vuelta, and he knows he can’t afford to wait to gain ground on his rivals after losing some time in the opening TTT, even though this isn’t the sort of long slogging climb that one might traditionally associate with his skillset. If he is truly at his best and planning on fighting for the overall victory in this race, he will be a strong contender on this stage.
Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin likes the high-gradient finales and showed with a near-victory on Stage 3 that he’s on great form. With Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky both essentially out of the GC picture after being caught out in crosswinds on Stage 5, Garmin will be fully committed to Martin’s ambitions in this race.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador has been downplaying his aspirations in this race, but he has not showed much weakness so far, and this will be an opportunity to see just how well he has recovered from his leg injury. Obviously, if he is in good shape, this steep summit finish suits him well. Fabio Aru is a terrific uphill charger who should like the Stage 6 profile, but form is a bit of an unknown right now. If he’s feeling strong, he’ll be dangerous. Rigoberto Uran‘s form is also a question mark, but if he’s at his best he should be able to be in the mix. Warren Barguil, Samuel Sanchez, Cadel Evans, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Wilco Kelderman, and Johan Esteban Chaves are others who could get involved for stage honors.
At this point in the race, with so many strong climbers still relatively well-placed on GC, there aren’t a whole lot of riders that stand out as strong long-range candidates on a climb like this. Julian Arredondo is one, but he has not appeared to be at full strength just yet (though if he does get out, he’ll obviously be a danger). Louis Meintjes, Adam Yates, Damiano Cunego, and Kenny Elissonde are others who might have a chance at Stage 6 if they are allowed up the road.
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 6, so stay tuned.
The third and final Grand Tour of the 2014 season has arrived and it should be quite the event. The Vuelta a España has a reputation as an opportunity for riders who have missed out on earlier season goals to take one last shot at glory in a major stage race. With injuries derailing the plans of so many of the sport’s biggest names who had been targeting other races on the calendar in 2014, that reputation will be taken to a new level in the year’s edition of the Vuelta. The startlist is overflowing with talent, with past winners of the General, Points, and Mountain Classifications of all three Grand Tours and multiple past World Champions in attendance. It’s shaping up to be a star-studded showdown.
The Route
The parcours of the 2014 Vuelta looks to be a bit less challenging than several recent editions have been, but that may only lead to a closer GC battle and more competition for bonus seconds at stage finishes. Most of the stages likely to have major GC implications sit roughly in the middle of the three-week period. That means that those who have arrived a bit off of peak form will take every available opportunity in the opening stages to ride themselves into shape before the real mountains appear. Once they do, the GC battle will be on, and with a few consecutive days of decisive racing packed into the second week, things could start to shape up long before the final stages of the race are underway. Still, the Tour de France should serve as a reminder of just how difficult Grand Tour racing can be, even on the stages that don’t look likely to shake up the GC, and even if the leaderboard looks set by the time the third week is in full swing, there are no guarantees in this sport; the riders will have to maintain focus all the way to the finish if they want to come out on top.
The Vuelta opens with a short, flat team time trial that is unlikely to have too big an effect on the General Classification. Stage 2 shouldn’t be much more eventful for the red jersey hunters. Stages 3 through 5 have a few hills along the way or at the finish line that could make for interesting stage battles, but probably won’t affect the overall leaderboard.
Stage 6: Benalmádena › La Zubia (167.1 km) – The Alto Cumbres Verdes that closes the stage isn’t a legbreaker, but it will offer the first real battleground for the climbing specialists in this Vuelta.
Stage 6 presents the first real mountain challenge of the Vuelta, with a summit finish. A 4.6 kilometer climb at an average gradient of 7.8% won’t decide the Vuelta by any means, but it will at least be a chance to see who is on strong form in this race. Stage 7 has hills throughout but nothing that will challenge the GC men, and the breakaway artists and more punchy riders will look to pick up a victory, while Stage 8 is almost guaranteed to end in a sprint.
Stage 9, the final stage before the first rest day of the Vuelta, will offer a major mountain showdown, finishing with the double challenge of a Cat. 2 climb followed almost immediately by a Cat. 1 summit finish.
Stage 10 (ITT): Real Monasterio de Santa María de Veruela › Borja (36.7 km) – A long downhill section will favor the powerful chrono specialists and could contribute to significant gaps among the GC riders.
Following their day off, the peloton will take on a stage likely to have a major impact on the overall outcome of the Vuelta: a 36.7 kilometer time trial. After an early Cat. 3, the remainder of the parcours is downhill, which will allow the real power specialists to put their skills on display, and could lead to significant gaps on the GC leaderboard. There won’t be much time for the red jersey seekers to rest after the chrono, with another mountaintop finish waiting on Stage 11.
Stages 12 and 13 should go to those riders who have come to the Vuelta looking for stage victories, but Stage 14 kicks of a trio of tough mountain days, with a difficult parcours that includes two Category 1 climbs (include the La Camperona summit finish). Stage 15 and the challenging Lagos de Covadonga climb come next, before a brutal Stage 16 that includes four Category 1 climbs, including the arduous La Farrapona climb to the finish line, 16.5 kilometers at an average gradient of 6.2%.
After a welcome rest day, a flat Stage 17 will provide the sprinters with another shot at victory. Stage 18 ends with a Cat. 2 climb that the puncheurs will love, while the a late hill on Stage 19 could set up a showdown between fast finishers and explosive opportunists.
Stage 20: Santo Estevo de Ribas de Sil › Puerto de Ancares (185.7 km) – The challenging Puerto de Ancares climb will offer a final opportunity for the uphill specialists to put their talents on display in this Vuelta.
The Puerto de Ancares climb that closes out Stage 20 will offer a battleground for a final mountain showdown among the GC contenders. It’s a harsh 12.7 kilometer ascent that averages 8.7% and includes several long stretches with gradients well over 10%. If the Vuelta hasn’t been decided already, this will be the site of a furious uphill battle.
The final stage of the Vuelta a España is a flat, 9.7 kilometer time trial that will offer those who specialize in short chronos a chance to shine on a big stage. The overall contenders will be on their toes, but only the slightest of GC gaps will be under threat with such a short route.
The General Classification Contenders
The startlist is full of GC talent, with several riders who could conceivably win this race. Many of the biggest names come with question marks. As such, it’s hard to call any one rider the out-and-out favorite to take this Vuelta a España. Still, a few riders stand out above the competition as the most likely contenders, with two in particular in a class of their own: Chris Froome of Team Sky and Nairo Quintana of Movistar.
Froome’s all-round talent speaks for itself. The winner of the 2013 Tour de France is one of the world’s best climbers and also an elite time trialist. At his best and most motivated, he is rarely defeated in a stage race. It doesn’t seem likely motivation will be much of a problem here: having dropped out of a Tour de France in which he was the favorite for a repeat success, this is the last real opportunity for both Froome and his mighty Team Sky to get any major results out of a season they entered with high expectations. Form is the only real question mark for Froome. He was back on the bike pretty quickly after injuries forced him out of the Tour, but it’s not easy to build a season around a race in July only to switch goals and hope for peak form in August and September. On the other hand, if the last three years are any indication, perhaps the biggest predictor of success in this race is a lack of Grand Tour mileage earlier in the year: for each of the past three winners, the Vuelta was the only three-week race undertaken that season. Froome’s very early exit from the Tour could leave him fresher than many of his top rivals in this race who already have a Giro or Tour under their belts. He also has multiple Grand Tour Top 10 finisher Mikel Nieve as a strong second, along with other reliable supporters like Phil Deignan (who has had a nice year for Sky), Dario Cataldo, Peter Kennaugh, and Vasil Kiryienka.
Nairo Quintana put his uphill mastery on display in last year’s Tour de France, climbing his way to 2nd place in that race despite not even being team leader at the start. He followed up that excellent performance with a victory at the 2014 Giro d’Italia, where he was clearly the strongest rider, overcoming an early illness to win rather handily. He has made big strides a time trialist over the past season, developing into a more complete rider every day, and he showed by winning the Vuelta a Burgos that after an extended break from racing following the Giro d’Italia, form isn’t an issue. The Giro mileage is there, but Quintana has obviously had time to recover, and he’ll benefit from an always powerful Movistar lineup. Alejandro Valverde makes the start as well, and while his disappointing 4th in the Tour de France (despite the absence of Contador and Froome) would suggest that his days of challenging for Grand Tour victory are coming to a close, especially with the added fatigue of having just raced in one, he’s still a consistent performer in three-week races who seems likely to put in a Top 10 result. The ability to launch a two-pronged assault on the steep stuff makes Movistar a very dangerous team, even if Froome is at 100%.
Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez had high hopes for this season, and everything looked to be going according to plan when he won the Volta a Catalunya, but injuries sustained in a nasty crash at the Giro derailed his campaign there and knocked him out of competition for a while. He decided to use the Tour de France as an opportunity to ride back into form (it should be noted that riding one Grand Tour as preparation for another is a rather unconventional plan these days), and though he was unable to come up with any big results in that race, he showed with a podium performance in the very challenging Clasica San Sebastian that followed that he was rounding into shape. With bonus seconds likely to be of some importance in this Vuelta, this is an excellent parcours for Rodriguez, who can hunt mountain bonus seconds better than most, a trait that will help him challenge for the win in his home Grand Tour. Trusted lieutenant Daniel Moreno is here as well. He has not had as strong a year as he had in 2013 (when he was 10th in the Vuelta and racked up several victories on the season), but he did just put in a great ride at the Vuelta a Burgos, finishing only 3 seconds behind Quintana on GC. Like Rodriguez, Moreno has a lot of punch in the hunt for time bonuses, and in addition to acting as Purito’s top teammate, he could land a decent overall result himself.
The nasty tibia fracture he suffered in the tenth stage of the Tour de France puts Alberto Contador a bit further down in this preview than he typically merits in a Grand Tour pre-race discussion, but he’s stil certainly worth mentioning. At full strength, he’s unmatched on the climbs and strong against the clock, and he possesses the killer instinct to deliver when the stakes are high. Unfortunately, he’s not likely to be at full strength, as an injury like the one that forced him out of the Tour is not quickly overcome. Still, Contador was flying in the run-up to the Tour and he will be highly motivated to put whatever remains of that form to good use. He has said he is targeting stage wins in this race, but Contador isn’t the type to back down if he should find himself still in the mix for GC as the race drags on. If he does manage to recover his strength and get involved in the battle, he’ll obviously be a top conteder. That’s a big ask, and as it stands, he’s certainly not the favorite he might be without the recent injury, but he also can’t be counted out.
Rigoberto Uran of OPQS showed his top-notch climbing legs and explosiveness on the way to a 2nd overall finish in the 2013 Giro, but he reached a new level as a GC rider this year, flashing great ability against the clock. Form is a question mark, as he was a bit off the pace in the recent Tour de l’Ain, his first race back from a long post-Giro break, but he has a history of performing well even after long periods out of competition. Uran has the talent to battle it out for the podium. He has a great team backing him too, with Wout Poels, who was brilliant in support of Uran in the Giro, on the squad as well. Don’t be surprised to see Poels looking for opportunities to succeed on his own either.
Last year’s winner Chris Horner, now riding for Lampre-Merida, had another difficult start to his season after being seriously injured when hit by a car while training. He was unable to follow up his strong 2013 finish with any big results in the early part of this year, but he looked strong in the Tour de France, where he rode in support of Rui Costa while still getting back to his best. He certainly looked to be closing in on that top level with his 2nd overall in the recent Tour of Utah. He’s another year older but that doesn’t seem to make much of a difference with Horner, who proved in last year’s race that he should not be underestimated when the road goes up. Lampre has a very nice squad of support riders and potential alternatives with Przemyslaw Niemiec (fresh off a 5th overall in Poland), Damiano Cunego, and the underrated Jose Serpa.
Update: In accordance with the rules of the MPCC, of which Lampre-Merida is a member, defending champion Chris Horner has been withdrawn from the Vuelta startlist due to low cortisol levels.
Giro 3rd place finisher Fabio Aru leads a strong Astana team. He thrives in the high mountains, and although this parcours may not have the grueling climbs of the Giro, Aru has the skillset to benefit from bonus seconds as well. The biggest concern for the 24-year-old will be staying strong throughout all three weeks: he has never raced two Grand Tours in one year, so it’s unclear how his body will respond. If he can hold up over the course of the Vuelta, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Tanel Kangert and rising talent Mikel Landa will also make the start.
Garmin-Sharp has several GC options. Explosive climber Dan Martin had designs of Giro glory, but crashed out on the very first day. In fact, the list of big races over the last two seasons in which Martin has crashed or come down with illness is surprisingly long. However, Martin was always planning to ride this Vuelta, and having crashed out of the Giro before finishing a single stage, he comes into this race with the major boon of not having finished another GT so far this season. It’s a good route for him, and he showed excellent form in the recent Tour de l’Ain, so if he can stay healthy for three weeks, a strong performance could be in the cards. Garmin-Sharp also sends 2014 Giro Top 10 finisher Ryder Hesjedal, who could put in a decent ride, as well as Andrew Talansky. Talansky is supposedly riding the race in support of his teammates, having withdrawn from the Tour following several crashes, but he’s been hot this year and he’s been 7th in this race in the past, so it’s not out of the question that he puts in a GC challenge in 2014.
With fewer truly brutal climbs than typically feature in the Giro or the Tour, this is a nice parcours for Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman, a strong time trialist who also has the ability to pick up bonus seconds in group finishes. The question for Kelderman will be whether he is strong enough yet (at just 23-years-old) to ride well through the second half of a Giro-Vuelta double. He was on good form at the Tour of Utah and certainly has the skillset to battle among the Top 10. Robert Gesink is another great option for Belkin. Having missed a large portion of the season with heart problems, Gesink showed good form in Poland and, of course, he doesn’t have any Grand Tour miles in his legs yet this season. This is a nice opportunity for him to get back into the mix. Laurens Ten Dam is here as well, coming off a nice 8th overall in the Tour de France. He might still have something left in the tank to challenge for the Top 10, and at the very least he’s an excellent teammate for the mountains.
AG2R sends Carlos Betancur, who spent months out of competition after the Ardennes Classics and did not look on form in his recent run at the Vuelta a Burgos. He has a lot of ground to make up if he wants to be in the conversation, but on raw talent he’s one of the best riders in the race and is worthy of a mention. BMC sends the one-two punch of Cadel Evans and Samuel Sanchez. Both are obviously well past their primes, but on a somewhat tamer course like this, and still packing strong finishing kicks for bonus seconds, both could have a shot at good results. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot makes the start following his stellar Tour de France, but maintaing his great form all the way through a podium performance at the Tour and into this race isn’t easy, and he has said outright that he’s hunting stage success and possibly the King of the Mountains jersey. Still, he’s worth keeping an eye on.
Giant-Shimano’s Warren Barguil made the 2013 Vuelta his coming out party with two stage wins, and now he returns with even bigger aspirations. He has not landed many big results yet this year but he was climbing well at the Tour de Pologne and he has a strong team of young, talented all-rounders (like Lawson Craddock and Chad Haga) around him. Coming into the race fresh and without any Grand Tour mileage this season, Barguil could put in a good ride. Orica-GreenEdge enters uncharted territory in this race; for once, they have a rider with some GC potential in Johan Esteban Chaves. A terrific climber, Chaves has taken stages in the Tour de Suisse and the Tour of California this year, and he has the talent to land a decent result.
Lotto Belisol appears to be backing Maxime Monfort for GC; Jurgen Van Den Broeck is on the startlist but it seems likely that he’ll be in the hunt for stages rather than mixing it up on GC. Trek has a lot of firepower in the race, and they aim to support Haimar Zubeldia as their GC rider over other talents (like strong climber Julian Arredondo) in the squad. Actually challenging for the podium may be too much to ask for Zubeldia, but he has a knack for landing Top 10 results. Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, FDJ’s Kenny Elissonde, MTN-Qhubeka’s Sergio Pardilla and Louis Mentjes, and Caja Rural’s David Arroyo are other outsiders who will hope to be in the mix for General Classification.
The Stagehunters
The quality of riders looking for stage wins in this race is also particularly high. Nacer Bouhanni, Giro Points Classification winner and, more recently, winner of a stage at the Eneco Tour, will hope to pick up more 2014 victories in the sprints. Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, and Michael Matthews are all in attendance as well, and they’ll look to challenge Bouhanni for the flatter bunch finishes and fight it out amongst themselves when the tougher profiles leave the heavier sprinters behind. We should be in for some great battles between the three versatile riders on the hillier stages. I like Degenkolb a lot in this race; when healthy, he’s been very fast this year, and he’ll be highly motivated after being slowed by an injury in the Tour.
Other sprinting talents making the start include Tom Boonen, Roberto Ferrari and Maximiliano Richeze, Yauheni Hutarovich, Moreno Hofland, Daniele Bennati, Gerald Ciolek, Andrea Guardini, Jens Debusschere, Fabio Felline, and Matteo Pelucchi. Philippe Gilbert will likely be in the mix on the flatter stages, and he’ll obviously be a top candidate to battle it out with the GC men for the shorter uphill finishes.
It’s worth noting that while most of the top fast men are likely to at least put up decent showings in the Points Classification, the Vuelta points jersey quite often goes to a climber thanks to the number of uphill finishes and an equally weighted points system regardless of the profile. Sagan, Matthews, Degenkolb, and Bouhanni (in that order, in my mind) all have a shot, but one will have to rise well above the others to make a legitimate run at a classification more likely to be won by the uphill specialists with the explosiveness to pick up stage wins.
Several great time trialists are in attendance hoping to pick up victories with two individual chronos on the menu. Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin headline the list, with the extremely talented Adriano Malori also among the best riders against the clock on the startlist. In addition to the many names with good time trialing ability already mentioned in the GC section of the preview, we’ll probably also see Kristof Vandewalle and Bob Jungels (who talked to VH this week about his goals for the Vuelta), Rohan Dennis, Jesse Sergent, Manuel Quinziato, and Brett Lancaster shining in the ITTs.
Many of those strong solo artists are also likely to be protagonists for long-range success in the breakaway-friendly intermediate stages, along with versatile riders like Luis Leon Sanchez, Nathan Haas, and Adam Hansen. Julian Arredondo headlines a list of climbing specialists who are ostensibly here for mountain stage wins and should be given some freedom to get up the road once they’ve dropped from the GC leaderboard. Along with whoever among the aforementioned GC riders resorts to hunting stages after falling out of contention for the overall, Adam Yates, Alessandro Di Marchi, Amets Txurruka, and Yuri Trofimov are others who could fight it out with the red jersey hunters for stage honors in the mountains.
VeloHuman Favorites
General Classification
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Nairo Quintana, Joaquim Rodriguez Other Top Contenders: Rigoberto Uran, Alejandro Valverde, Fabio Aru, Wilco Kelderman, Daniel Martin, Daniel Moreno, Alberto Contador
Points Classification
Winner: Joaquim Rodriguez
VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España, with profiles, favorites, and outsiders for every day of racing. The preview of Stage 1 is already up! There will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter, so be sure to follow @VeloHuman if you haven’t already.
-Dane Cash
Photos by Tom Raftery, Manuel Quiroga, and Gerben van Heijningen.
Stage 17: Saint-Gaudens › Saint-Lary Pla d’Adet – 124.5 km
A hard first day in the Pyrenees (won by VeloHuman’s top Stage Favorite, Michael Rogers) dealt serious blows to the podium hopes of a number of riders in this race, but things won’t get any easier on Stage 17. The steak knife-esque profile throws three Category 1 climbs (the second one is particularly brutal, 13.2 km at a 7% gradient) and some tricky descents at the peloton before culiminating in an HC-rated finale, a 10.2 kilometer, 8.3% ascent to Pla d’Adet. The early slopes of this last climb are particularly harsh, with sections hovering around 10%. Overall, Stage 17 is a short one at only 124.5 kilometers, but there will be more than enough challenges on the menu to wear down even the climbing specialists.
At least in terms of stage glory, it could be another day for the breakaway. There is still one more brutal day in the Pyrenees to come, and the GC types may not be that interested in doing any chasing if a big group gets up the road. A constantly up-and-down profile and some positively serpentine roads in the second half of the day will further help the cause of those in the early move. Still, the final climb will be a very harsh test, and even if the survivors of the break have a nice gap at the foot of it, it will be a challenge holding on to the top. Whatever the scenario, an abundance of uphill power will be a prerequisite for success on Stage 17.
With three Cat. 1s and an HC-rated summit finish up for grabs, this stage will be pivotal for those hunting the polka dot jersey. Rafal Majka and Joaquim Rodriguez cannot afford to miss the breakaway. Both kept their powder dry on the very long road to Bagnères-de-Luchon, knowing that this battleground was ahead. Majka proved to be the strongest on Stage 14 and generally looks to be more on-form rider at the moment. He is a true all-round talent, with the uphill ability to handle the steep stuff, the endurance to spend the day out front, and a decent kick, too. Still, Purito is improving every day, and the irregular slope of the final climb is just the sort of challenge he enjoys when he is at his best. Should Majka and Rodriguez both be there at the end of the day, we should be in for an entertaining spectacle. Tinkoff-Saxo has an in-form Nicolas Roche and an obviously strong Michael Rogers as other long-range options, while Katusha could try to put Simon Spilak or Yuri Trofimov up the road as well.
Sky has a lot of options for an attempt at breakaway success: Mikel Nieve is a terrific climber who could attempt the long one here, with David Lopez, Vasil Kiryienka, and Geraint Thomas as nice alternatives. As much of an uphill talent as he is when he’s at his best, Richie Porte at least deserves a mention, in case he recovers from his ailments enough to give this a go. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi has put in some brave long-distance efforts so far and this will be another opportunity to get out front. Lampre-Merida’s Chris Horner is free to go on the move now that Rui Costa is out of the race. It’s hard to say where he is right now in terms of form, but on peak ability he’s obviously a very dangerous rider. Teammate Jose Serpa could also try to get involved in the break, having flashed some nice form on Stage 16. Europcar had a very disappointing first day in the Pyrenees, missing out on the victory despite having two riders in the lead group on the road in the last 10 kilometers, and also seeing Pierre Rolland tumble out of the Top 10 on GC. It’s almost a certainty that they will try to get into the early move on Stage 17, with Rolland now far enough down on the overall leaderboard that he may be given some room. Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler will find this profile to be very challenging but they may give it a shot anyway. Lotto’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Trek’s Frank Schleck both lost a lot of time on Stage 16 and could also hope to get up the road to pull back into contention for the GC Top 10. Brice Feillu, Christophe Riblon, Blel Kadri, Steven Kruijswijk, Giovanni Visconti, John Gadret, and Tony Martin are other strong talents who might try to go for this one from afar.
Should the pack make the effort to reel any early attackers back in, Stage 17 will probably come down to a battle royale among the General Classification’s very best climbers on the final slope. The tough uphill tests in the middle of the day will do their damage and could see some contenders fall away, and some tricky descending could contribute to gaps as well, but even if a sizable group reaches the foot of the last climb, it will get blown apart on the vicious gradients. It’s hard to see past Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali on a brutal finishing climb like this. He’s looked bulletproof in this race, and that’s not likely to change here. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has emerged as one of the few riders who might have a chance to engage him uphill. With his huge advantage on the leaderboard, Nibali may give Pinot a chance to get up the road towards the end of the day, and the young Frenchman is on the form of his life; he’ll jump at any opportunity to land a result. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde might also have a shot: if he can hang on at the head of affairs all the way to the top of the final climb, things do flatten out for the final 200 meters, and Valverde is the best sprinter among the top GC men.
A bit further down on the leaderboard, Leopold Konig is not going to trouble any of the top GC contenders, and he has looked particularly strong recently, hanging with the podium favorites on Stage 16. He came close to a stage win when he put in a late attack on the last climb of Stage 13, and he could try to go just that little bit further to victory here. Romain Bardet lost a lot of time on Stage 16 and he may try to claw back some seconds, but he’ll need to recover his form quickly: he did not look good on the Port de Balès. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud looks considerably stronger right now. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam is one other rider to watch; at 11:12 off the lead, he’s no threat to the anyone in the Top 5 if he should decide to strike ahead for glory late on Stage 17. He appears to be a lot stronger than teammate Bauke Mollema right now.
Vincenzo Nibali passed the Tour’s first high-mountain test with flying colors in the thirteenth stage of the race. The yellow jersey wearer and the rest of the peloton will take on another day of serious uphill challenges on Stage 14. At 177 kilometers, the journey from Grenoble to Risoul is not a particularly long one, but the riders will be either charging up steep Alpine slopes or zooming down them all day long. The pack starts climbing up a steady (though uncategorized) gradient almost immediately once the racing begins. Things flatten out a bit for the intermediate sprint point, but then the road kicks back up for will seem like an eternity: the Category 1 Col du Lautaret is not all that steep at 3.9%, but 34 km is a very, very long time to spend traveling skyward. When the riders finally reach the top, they will embark on a 30 kilometer descent to the foot of the Col d’Izoard, an HC-rated challenge of 19 km at a 6% average grade. The Col d’Izoard starts out at low gradients, but the second half of the climb is much steeper than the first, and anyone on a bad day is likely to be found out as things get harder after the midway point. From the summit, it’s a high-speed descent to the bottom of the day’s final test, the Cat. 1, 12.6 kilometer climb to Risoul. It’s a steady incline all the way up, but after so many long ascents it’s going to be an exhausting trip to the finish line.
There a quite a few KOM points on offer here in the fourteenth stage of the Tour de France, and with such an up and down profile that will make it difficult for any one team to control the race, the climbing specialists who are out of GC contention will see a golden opportunity to go off the front in search of glory. The GC men, on the other hand, are coming off of a very difficult day of racing, and might be content to let others contest the victory. The morning breakaway has a good chance of going the distance on Stage 14.
Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez did not get into the Stage 13 break, and when the road started to go up towards the finish, he quickly fell back and took the ascent at his own pace. He should have a bit more energy for Stage 14 than a number of other uphill specialists who poured everything into the Chamrousse climb, and he obviously has more talent than almost anyone else as well. With so many KOM points available here, Purito will likely be very aggressive trying to get ahead, and the early incline will give him an advantage trying to get into the break if he wants to go for this from afar. As difficult as it is to predict which riders will make it out front on a day like this, Joaquim Rodriguez is my top favorite for Stage 14. Teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other riders to watch.
Continuing in the vein of potential long-distance candidates for success: Mikel Nieve is an excellent climber and a keen opportunist, and he is in terrific shape right now. His team has suddenly found itself out of GC contention after Richie Porte’s very bad day on Stage 13, and now Sky will probably be looking to get something out of this Tour de France with a long-distance strike in the mountains. Geraint Thomas has been climbing quite well, too, and he may be another potential aggressor here.
Tinkoff-Saxo has gone in to full stagehunting mode and they came very close with Rafal Majka on Stage 13. They’ll have another shot at it on Stage 14, and they will be trying to get Majka, Nicolas Roche, or Michael Rogers into the early move. All three of them are strong contenders, and if any one of them makes it into the day’s breakaway, he will be a favorite for stage victory.
AG2R’s Christophe Riblon stayed quiet on the road to Chamrousse. The energy he saved there, coupled with a skillset well-suited for this profile, could see him in the mix. Teammate Blel Kadri could also give this a go. Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia will be coming off a day of very hard effort, but they look strong at the moment, and they are far enough back in the General Classification that they’ll likely be allowed to slip away. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is just ahead of Zubeldia on GC and could also have an aggressive gameplan in mind for Stage 14, though he isn’t at his best right now following a tough Giro campaign. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi and Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu are other candidates to try a long-range move.
Leopold Konig of NetApp-Endura looked very strong on Stage 13, coming in 3rd on the day and riding himself into the GC Top 10. He may now be just a bit too close to the GC heavyweights to be given a lot of freedom to get out front, but if he is allowed some space, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam is in a similar position: a strong ride to the Chamrousse finish line put him within sight of the Top 10 overall, and it’s tough to say whether he’d be allowed off the front if he wants to make a bid for glory on Stage 14. Also hovering around the fringes of the Top 10 is Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS. He looked to be in serious difficulty at the foot of the final climb on Stage 13, but he rode his own steady pace up to the top and ultimately finished only about 4 minutes down. He has already shown a willingness to go on the attack in this race, and he might try again here.
Should the pack ultimately sweep up the day’s early breakers on Stage 14, it’s hard to see past Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali as the top favorite once again. He is simply the strongest climber in the race. With Tanel Kangert, Michele Scarponi, and Jakob Fuglsang (if he is not too badly hurt following a crash) at his side, the shark is unstoppable when the road goes up.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is his closest rival on a stage like this. Should Nibali fail to drop him on the final climb, he has the sprint to cross the line first.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot looks very sharp at the moment and he’ll hope to gain more time on his rival for both the podium and the white jersey, Romain Bardet. There is a lot of descending on the docket on Stage 14, so Pinot’s confidence could be put to the test. Speaking of Bardet, he has been steady throughout this race, as has teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud, and they should continue to be a top-notch pairing on this tough day in the mountains.
BMC’s Tejay van Garderen should like the look of the final climb, which favors those who can turn a steady pace. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck have both been improving. A few minutes down on Nibali on GC, any one of this trio might have a bit of freedom to strike for glory on the ascent to Risoul.
After a day without any real GC implications (Alexander Kristoff won Stage 12 in a bunch sprint), the yellow jersey fight will heat up again on Stage 13. The Tour’s journey through the Vosges offered plenty of uphill challenges to give an early indication of the climbers’ pecking order, but Stage 13 serves up the first high-altitude test of the race. The 197.5 kilometer day starts with a Cat. 3 climb and then a very long section of relatively flat roads before a tough final 60 kilometers. First, the peloton must take on the Cat. 1 Col de Palaquit, 14.1 km at 6.1%. Compared to what comes next on the profile, it may not look too bad, but this is a real test in its own right that will inject some pain into the legs of even the uphill specialists. After the tough climb and a fast descent, the riders will pass Grenoble and then start the grueling final ascent to Chamrousse, an HC-rated 18.2 kilometer slog at 7.3%. The steepest sections of the climb come early on. Things start to ease up a bit right near the top, but after such a long skyward journey, any group that comes to the foot of the climb is almost certain to be blown apart before it reaches the summit.
If any strong climbers make it into the morning breakaway, they will have a chance of staying away here; with another high mountain stage on tap for Saturday, the peloton may decide to conserve some energy on Stage 13. However, there are flat run-ins to both late climbs where things are likely to get very pacey in the pack as teams try to bring their leaders into the best possible position to start the ascending, and that could start to eat away at any advantage a breakaway might have. Even if those off the front do have some breathing room when they start their uphill journey to Chamrousse, it will still be a big challenge holding the gap all the way to the top.
The Tour’s climbing stars will be the favorites for victory here. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali outclassed everyone on La Planche des Belles Filles last weekend, showing that he is the rider to beat on the steep stuff. With a terrific supporting cast in Jakob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert, and Michele Scarponi, he has the team to set a strong pace when the road goes up. There are a few potential long-distance protagonists who could take this stage from afar, but if the pack does reel in the early moves as the Chamrousse climb nears, Nibali looks to be the single likeliest victor.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde was not as strong as expected in the steep finale of the Tour’s eigth stage, but he was impressive on Stage 10, rolling in 3rd behind Nibali. He may be getting a bit stronger as the race goes on, and with the uphill ability he has shown in the past, he should be able to contend on this challenging final climb. Like Nibali, he has a strong team to position him well for a vertical charge in the Stage 13 finale.
Sky’s Richie Porte faces a real test here: the long ascents should be a strength, but this is the first time he is taking on an HC-rated Tour de France climb as team leader. If he can stay calm and churn out a steady pace, he could thrive on this slope. Mikel Nieve and Geraint Thomas, both still within the GC Top 15, make terrific allies.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has been very impressive on the climbs so far in this race, and the Stage 13 profile will allow him to put that talent on display again. He will also be pleased that there is not a whole lot of technical desceding on the docket. French compatriots Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud of AG2R are also looking very strong, and they make a nice combo for the long climbs.
BMC’s Tejay van Garderen has handled the uphill challenges in this race with aplomb. He has developed considerably as a climber in 2014, and this will be an opportunity to put his improved skills to the test. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema struggled with stomach issues when facing some tough climbs earlier in the race, but he should be ready for Stage 13’s challenges. Past performances suggest that he should be able to put in a decent performance on this sort of skyward slog; we’ll see if he’s at the level necessary to succeed right now.
Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa has been suffering from bronchitis, and this will not be a pleasant journey to the top for him. He has a strong team with Chris Horner as a great second, but it will be a lot to ask to stay at the head of affairs for 18.2 very steep kilometers. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who was so strong in the Dauphine, has looked a bit off the pace on the climbs so far, and unless he manages to find an extra gear soon, this could be a tough stage for him as well.
Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez is the best climber in a select group of riders who are, on the one hand, far enough out of GC contention that they’ll be able to make a long-distance move, and on the other, talented enough to win on these slopes. Purito came very close to success on Stage 10, even after already expending a lot of effort picking up KOM points. Staying out front over the 18.2 kilometer final ascent is a lot to ask, but Rodriguez is one of the strongest climbers in the whole race. There will be a number of KOM points on offer on Saturday’s stage as well, however, which could affect how Purito decides to play Stage 13. His teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other strong options to go on the offensive from far out.
Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is far enough back on GC that he could go on the attack without giving too much worry to those near the top of the leaderboard. Post-Giro d’Italia Rolland is not as dangerous as he might be were this his first Grand Tour of the year, but if the pack does not have the motivation to reel in any moves from riders that aren’t in podium contention, Rolland has a chance: he is still one of the best climbers in the Tour.
NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig fell out of GC contention early in this race, but he finished 8th on La Planche des Belles Filles (ahead of Bauke Mollema and a few other top GC men). He could get into a move off the front and put his great uphill talent on display on Stage 13. AG2R’s Christophe Riblon finally showed himself with an attempt to take Stage 10 from the breakaway, and he could look to go for a long one again here. Tinkoff-Saxo has a very dangerous trio of climbing stars in Michael Rogers, Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka, all of whom are now free to hunt stage wins from afar. Others strong-climbing candidates who could look to get out front and hold on for success include Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo.
Stage 8: Tomblaine › Gérardmer La Mauselaine – 161 km
In the Tour’s seventh stage, Matteo Trentin earned his second career Tour de France win on a mostly flat day with a late sting in the tail. Stage 8 is another day of mostly flat roads leading into a late challenge, but this time the sting is a whole lot nastier. After 133 kilometers with only a few minor rollers, the Stage 8 profile suddenly turns savage. First comes the tough Cat. 2 climb of the Col de la Croix des Moinats, 7.6 km at an average gradient of 6%. After a speedy descent comes another Cat. 2 of 3 km at a steeper 7.5%. One more fast downhill leads into the final 1.8 kilometers, where the road kicks up in a vicious 10.3% average gradient 3rd Category climb to the Gérardmer finish. It’s not a long day, but the three late climbs are sure to weed out those who are not at the top of their game.
The early break will likely get a big advantage in the first two hours of racing, and with no chance for the pure sprinters at this finish and mountains on the horizon, the peloton’s chase may be a bit less spirited than we’ve seen on other stages. There is a chance of breakaway success here. Still, this will be the first real opportunity for the climbing specialists to do damage in the General Classification fight, which will probably lead to a real injection of pace from the pack in the last forty kilometers or so, at which point the break may struggle to hold their advantage on the flat run-in to the climbs. As such, this could be the first stage in the Tour that ends in a showdown among the GC candidates (with a few other punchy types likely in the mix as well). Any one of the day’s three uphill challenges could see action, with fireworks guaranteed on the steep final ascent.
With this finale, Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has to be a rider to watch. The winner of the 2014 edition of La Fleche Wallonne is one of most explosive uphill finishers in the peloton, and he has been on top form all year, flashing his brilliance with victory after victory since February. With a chance to pick up time on his rivals, he’s certain to light up these late climbs.
Close behind Valverde at every turn in the Ardennes Classics was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Stage 7 looked like a great opportunity for the versatile Kwiatkowski, but it turned out that he and his team were working for the also versatile Matteo Trentin. Kwiatkowski will have his opportunity on Stage 8. The short climbs are his forte, and he won’t have a problem with the descents that lead into the last climb of the day.
As one might expect on a stage involving a succession of late ascents closed out by a 10.3% climb, Alberto Contador will be a major player as well. The Tinkoff-Saxo leader knows he needs to pick up time on GC at every opportunity. An excellent descender, he may even try to strike out on the first or second categorized climb and attempt to grab an advantage from further out (and this could happen whether the peloton has reeled in the break or not). Contador has been unrivaled on the climbs so far this year, and this steep finish will allow him to turn the screws on his opponents for the yellow jersey of the Tour de France.
Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez would perhaps be the top favorite on this finish if his form weren’t in question. It is not clear how far along he is in his post-Giro recovery. Still, it’s hard to draw up a final two kilometers more perfect for Purito than these, and now that he’s further behind on GC than Andre Girepel, he’ll have the added benefit of being able to go on the attack without worrying the GC men. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini are other very strong puncheurs who could enjoy that sort of freedom as well; head-to-head against the likes of Valverde this could be too steep for them, but as non-threats for the yellow jersey, they may be allowed off the front if they want to go for it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is further down on GC than he would have hoped, but that will at least grant him more flexibility to strike on Stage 8. It’s not one that necessarily favors him over the other GC types, but if he gets ahead of the pack in a move of non-GC riders, his chances will be good.
Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa and Chris Horner and Belkin’s Bauke Mollema should handle the final slopes well. AG2R’s Romain Bardet has shown some punch at times this year. This will be a good test to see just how strong Sky’s new leader Richie Porte is on the climbs right now. Garmin-Sharp’s Andrew Talansky and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck don’t immediately come to mind on a final climb like this, but both have looked to be on excellent form in the past few weeks.
Katusha’s Simon Spilak, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, AG2R’s Christophe Riblon, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all excellent climbers who are out of the GC picture entirely, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them among those trying something from afar. Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier of Europcar are almost certain to be on the lookout for long-range success on Stage 8. Jan Bakelants of OPQS may be as well. It will be interesting to see if Tinkoff-Saxo puts any of Contador’s elite trio of lieutenants (Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche, and Michael Rogers) up the road. Lastly, Cannondale’s Peter Sagan at least deserves a mention: I highly doubt that he will be in the mix on something as steep as this last climb, but he was among the Top 15 riders in 2013’s La Fleche Wallonne; he may at least give it a shot!
