Despite a few early hills on the profile, the GC men should have an opportunity to let the stagehuners take the driver’s seat on the Giro’s seventh stage. It will be a very welcome opportunity coming on the heels of the wildest day in this race so far. Late carnage on rainslicked roads on Stage 6 saw a number of riders hit the deck and slowed many more, allowing a small group that included BMC’s Cadel Evans and Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge to gap the bunch at the start of the final climb. Those behind eventually organized a chase, but the small group held their lead all the way up the slope, with VH stage favorite Michael Matthews sprinting to his first win of the Giro when they reached the top. With a few bonus seconds for his 3rd place on the stage thrown in, Evans picked up 53 seconds on the chasing group that included Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran, and a few other contenders, but it took some time for the full consequences of the day’s carnage to be known. Those consequences turned out to be dire for several very big GC names, including one of the biggest in the race: Joaquim Rodriguez suffered a broken finger and bruised ribs in the crash, and although he did finish the stage, he has abandoned the Giro d’Italia. It’s another heartbreaking turn of events for Purito, who was so hopeful of finally getting that first Grand Tour win in this event. Several other GC contenders lost varying amounts of time. To name just a few, Lampre’s Damiano Cunego and Astana’s Michele Scarponi lost about a minute and a half to Evans, and Cunego’s teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec lost closer to two minutes, but they were relatively lucky compared to Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche, who came across the line fifteen minutes down.
Purito wasn’t the only rider who abandoned in the wake of the crash-marred sixth stage (the list of abandons includes Purito’s teammates Angel Vicioso and Giampaolo Caruso, who are both out after suffering nasty injuries as well), so it will be a somewhat smaller peloton that sets out from Frosinone in Stage 7. There are a number of bumps along the road to Foligno, but none of them are particularly challenging, and the last one is crested with 40 km still to go on the day. Breakers will surely take their chances, but with a long, flat run to finish line, the sprinters’ teams should make a strong effort to pull back anyone who gets too far up the road. A breakaway victory is certainly possible, but I think a bunch sprint is the more likely outcome. Whatever the size of the lead group entering town, a nasty hairpin with about 1.5 km remaining will make for a fierce fight to get into position early, but the final kilometer that follows is not as technical as some we’ve seen so far; there is a gentle right turn with around 500 meters to go, but it shouldn’t slow down the riders too much. I don’t think the profile will be too much for any of the major sprinter names to handle, so after two days of finishes open to a considerably more versatile cast of contenders, I think we’ll see the familiar top-flight fastmen battling it out in the finale.
Cannondale has looked strong on every sprint stage of this race so far, but they haven’t been able to nail down their timing just yet. If they can perfect things here, Elia Viviani will be tough to beat, with an elite turn of top speed. He’s the first of my (probably unsurprising) trio of stage favorites. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni is the second. I think his leadout is something of a disadvantage, but he’s very good at fighting for his own position when he has to, and he already has a stage victory to prove that he is one of the fastest riders in this Giro. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo is the other rider I see as a top favorite. He has some excellent squadmates to deliver him to the finish at a very high speed, but he always finds himself just slightly out of position. I think he’s likely to get it right eventually, and I bet he’ll be flying over the final kilometer of Stage 7.
Luka Mezgec, now that Marcel Kittel is gone, will benefit from one of the best leadouts in the Giro d’Italia. He took the the final stage of WorldTour racing in 2013 in the Tour of Beijing, winning a sprint finish over both Bouhanni and Viviani, so I think he’s a real contender now that he’s Giant’s featured rider.
Sky seems to be behind Ben Swift on the flatter sprints in this race, with Edvald Boasson Hagen playing a fantastic second. The pair are quite formidable. I think they’d prefer a more challenging final half-hour of racing, but Swift was 2nd behind only Marcel Kittel on Stage 3 and will probably continue to place highly on even the flat days. As a note, Sky showed on Stage 5 that they aren’t afraid of sending one of their quick men into a break, and on this profile that has at least some potential for breakaway success, I don’t think it’s out of the question that they try again; Boasson Hagen is a particularly talented breakaway artist.
Pink jersey wearer Michael Matthews would absolutely prefer more challenges on the profile, but he’s likely to at least be in contention late again. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a pretty constant fixture in the Top 10s of this Giro’s sprint finishes. He lacks the team support to be considered a big favorite but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him nab one of these sprint stages with some luck. Tyler Farrar hit the deck hard in Stage 6, so his overall health is something of an unknown. Manuel Belletti, Davide Appollonio, Francesco Chicchi, Jetse Bol, Tony Hurel, Alessandro Petacchi (should he finally decide to contend a sprint), and Nicola Ruffoni headline the other names who could challenge in a bunch gallop.
Check back after Stage 7 for the preview of Stage 8; Saturday’s racing is likely to provide some GC fireworks! If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!
Early season tuneup races have done their part to offer insight into riders’ form in 2014, but the main event of spring stage racing is now here. The 97th Giro d’Italia begins in Belfast Friday with a team time trial. After two more days on the island, the Giro heads to Italy. Continuing recent trends, a difficult, climber-centric parcours has drawn a climber-heavy field to the race.
Vincenzo Nibali won last year’s edition with a dominant display of ability, finishing with nearly five minutes between himself and the next best placed rider, Rigoberto Uran. Cadel Evans took the final podium place of 2013. To earn their results, all of the riders braved extreme weather that forced a stage cancellation. Ryder Hesjedal (winner in 2012) and Bradley Wiggins both dropped out of the race before it reached its final destination. Difficult conditions are commonplace here, a feature of the race that, like the Italian Alps, must be overcome on the way to victory. Nibali will not be on the startlist this year, but many of the other protagonists of the 96th edition will be returning, as will the Martelltal-climbing stage that was unfortunately cancelled last year. Before I dive further into to the route, a note: VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Giro, so be sure to check back often for daily profiles and picks. The Stage 1 Preview is already up! Also, follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!
The Route
The Giro d’Italia includes an introductory team time trial, two individual time trials (one essentially a hill climb), eight flat or flattish stages, five medium mountains stages (almost all ending uphill), and five high mountain stages, each with summit finishes. The parcours favors the more climbing-oriented GC contenders over those who sacrifice uphill ability for chrono-power. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the finish and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints will benefit the explosive riders and fast finishers.
Stage 8 and the Montecopiolo will be an early test for the GC favorites.
Taking the race one stage at a time: the first week kicks off with a medium distance TTT that will create a few small gaps in GC before a trio of stages for the sprinters (riders will get a day off to travel to Italy for Stage 4). Uphill finishes on Stages 5 and 6 could create some light GC action. A hilly Stage 7 closes out the first week in advance of difficult mountain stages (8 and 9) in the beginning of the second week.
With so many days for the pure climbers, an individual time trial on Stage 12 will weed out a number of would-be GC contenders.
After a rest day, Stages 10 and 11 shouldn’t have many GC implications. The rolling 41.9 kilometer time trial that follows on the 12th stage will; it could be one of the most pivotal tests of the Giro. Stage 13 will likely be another day off the pink jersey hunters, but Stages 14-16 will throw three consecutive summit finishes at the peloton (albeit with a rest day before Stage 16).
The fearsome Monte Zoncolan on Stage 20 guarantees suspense right up to the end.
Riders will save what energy they can on a bumpy but likely uneventful (at least for GC) Stage 17. The Rifugio Panarotta climb that closes out Stage 18 is roughly 16 kilometers at an approximately 8% average grade. Stage 19’s mountain time trial will be 26.8 kilometers of Category 1 climbing. And, of course, Stage 20 will throw down the gauntlet known as Monte Zoncolan, one of the most brutal climbs on the entire pro cycling calendar. 10 kilometers at around 12%, the summit finish will be a final test for the top riders in the race before the sprinters get their last hurrah in Stage 21, a 172 kilometer ride to Trieste and the podium presentation.
There are certainly a few early tests, but the action will really pick up in the second week, and all but two of the final eight stages are rife with extreme slopes and, as such, GC implications. The winner of this race will have to string together quite a few consistently strong performances in a row to come away victorious. With so many uphill finishes, a strong team of supporters will be crucial, as will an ability to avoid misfortune. There really aren’t many stages on which it’s okay for a rider to have a bad day.
The General Classification Contenders
The 2014 Giro d’Italia will kick off with two out-and-out favorites who stand, at least at the moment, head and shoulders above the competition. First and foremost is last year’s Tour de France runner-up, 24-year-old Nairo Quintana. A climbing superstar in a climber’s Grand Tour, Quintana looks just as strong in 2014 as he did in 2013. Quintana has shown that his elite ability to deliver on the mountains day after day after day is going strong in 2014, with nice performances in the Tour de San Luis, Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Volta a Catalunya. With this parcours, he enters the race with the title of favorite. He has had some time off racing, but that didn’t seem to be a problem before last year’s Tour, so I imagine he’ll be ready to roll. What’s more, he’ll have the full support of an elite Movistar team from the opening stage of the race, which was not the case in last year’s Tour de France, where Movistar set out to support Alejandro Valverde before altering their plan midway through the event. Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori will help set up Quintana nicely in the team time trial, and then riders like Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton will be strong workhorses when the road goes skyward.
Quintana’s main challenger looks to be Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spanish climber has earned quite a collection of Grand Tour podiums in his past few years, but he is still seeking an elusive Grand Tour victory. He came close in this very race in 2012, losing out on the victory and settling for 2nd after losing too many seconds in the final time trial. The 2014 Giro d’Italia is about as well-suited to Purito’s skillset as he could hope for; one of the time trials is basically a king of the hill competition, the other involves rolling ascents that will still favor his characteristics. Purito looked brilliant in the Volta a Catalunya in March, but had a rash of misfortune to follow, suffering injury in a crash at Amstel Gold. The crash derailed his Ardennes campaign and left him with some question marks coming into the Giro, his biggest target of the year. He will have had a few weeks to recover by the time the race kicks off, and the flattish first few days will give him further time to ride back into form, but the concerns are there. Still, Purito is a fighter and I imagine he’ll be among the top riders in the race, especially with bonus seconds on offer. Against a strong Movistar team and a number of other contenders, he’ll need to be gunning for every finish line. Fortunately, he’ll have top lieutenant Daniel Moreno at his side, another danger man for bonus seconds. The pair make a fearsome team and give Katusha a strong 1-2 punch. I think they’ll make the fight for the maglia rosa a close one.
Former Tour de France winner Cadel Evans looked excellent in the Tour Down Under, then rusty at Tirreno-Adriatico, and then back on to form at Pais Vasco. He was the best rider at the Giro del Trentino, facing many of the same names he’ll take on at the Giro d’Italia. He took 3rd in this race last year, and he’s out to prove he has at least another year in the tank. Given his recent performances, I think he’ll put in a strong race, but on this unforgiving profile, he may have a hard time keeping up with elite climbers. He will at least have a strong second in Grand Tour podium finisher Samuel Sanchez, who looks good, if not great yet, this season.
He doesn’t have the name recognition of a former yellow jersey holder or Olympic champion, but Domenico Pozzovivo is my pick for the rider most likely to challenge favorites Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez. The Italian climber put in a Top 10 performance at last year’s Giro, but the real show came at the Vuelta a España, where he notched a 6th overall and displayed a newfound ability to deliver a top-shelf time trial. Always strong uphill, Pozzovivo’s recent discovery of chrono talent, along with a fair bit of general all-around improvement, make him a dangerous contender. He has been hot so far this season, delivering top 10s in every race he has undertaken, including landing 2nd in the Giro del Trentino and then flying to Liege to notch a 5th overall just two days later. The biggest hurdle to overcome will be questionable team support: he will be leading an AG2R squad without many of that outfit’s big names. Still, I think he will challenge the very best in this race.
Rigoberto Uran was the surprise runner-up in the 2013 edition, a result that built on a 7th overall and a young rider jersey from the previous year. No one was able to match Nibali in 2013, but Uran came closest, even beating him to the summit of the Altopiano de Montasio en route to a stage win. He lost big chunks of time on the chrono stages, but performed remarkably well for a rider who started the race as a lieutenant to Bradley Wiggins. He rides for a different team this year; OPQS signed him in the offseason to be their main GC rider. Uran has had a rocky start to 2014, landing 3rd overall against some big names in the Tour of Oman but otherwise delivering forgettable results in Tirreno-Adriatico, Catalunya, and Romandie. Still, the Giro is his main objective and it’s a race he knows, and it is important to remember that he’d done basically nothing last year leading into this race either. He also put in a stellar performance at the final ITT stage in the TdR this weekend, hinting that he may be stronger than his recent GC results would suggest. With a great team of supporters that includes Wout Poels and Thomas de Gendt, I think Uran will find himself at the pointy end of affairs in Italy.
Garmin sends a former Giro winner (as recently as 2012) in Ryder Hesjedal, but climbing specialist Dan Martin is probably the more dangerous rider for the squad. He’s won some serious climbers’ races, but GC success in a Grand Tour has eluded him so far. With the opening few stages taking place in Ireland, this year’s Giro is his main target. Martin’s form was a question mark right up until La Fleche Wallonne late last month, where he dispelled all concerns with a 2nd place performance atop the Mur; he continued to display stellar form in a title defense at Liege, where a late crash ruined an almost certain Top 5 placing, and possibly even an overall victory. However, one-day races are not Grand Tours, and Martin has had a penchant for running into problems in the longer races. Allergies and crashes have derailed his attempts in the past. Still, Martin knows that people question his ability to handle the Grand Tours, and I think he’s ready to silence his critics. The form is there, and unlike many of the other contenders, he doesn’t have too many miles on the tires yet this season. I think a Top 10 is within his reach, especially without many long, flat time trial miles. Teammate Hesjedal will be hoping for a resurgence; he has done very little since his overall victory here in 2012. Flashes of form at a few races last year suggest that he may still have top-level ability somewhere hidden away, but a lack of results so far this year make me skeptical of his chances.
Like cousin Dan Martin, Nicolas Roche is another GC rider looking forward to the start in his home country of Ireland. The 29-year-old really reached another level in last year’s Vuelta, landing in the Top 5 and nabbing a stage victory. He’s been rather quiet so far in 2014, but the Giro is easily the biggest objective of his year. Tinkoff-Saxo has another weapon in Rafal Majka, who finished 7th in 2013. He looks to be rounding into form this year, and he’ll love the mountainous route. With the Roche-Majka 1-2, Tinkoff-Saxo will be very active when the road goes up, and even without many results to go on in 2014, I think the pair will put at least one rider into the Top 10.
Astana won this race last year, and they send 2011 winner (after Contador was stripped of that title) Michele Scarponi this year. He has had a number of good, though not great performances so far in 2014, and was a fine 4th overall in last year’s race. Decent, if not world-beating, showings seem to be the name of the game for the aging Italian climber, and I think it’s likely we’ll get another here. His team does send a very strong team of lieutenants/alternatives to liven up the ascents: Mikel Landa has looked strong this year and young Fabio Aru was great again in the Giro del Trentino. A climber-centric route favors their skillsets.
Former Giro winner Damiano Cunego finally looks to have re-found some form here in 2014, climbing very well in Pais Vasco. Though it has now been a decade since his Grand Tour victory, Cunego is still only 32 years old. The route, and potential bonus seconds, suit the veteran. Lampre teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec may actually be a stronger option. Long an also-ran for the Italian squad, Niemiec has quietly put together some great recent results using his well-rounded skillset; his 6th overall at the 2013 Giro was one of a number of strong showings that year, and he looked great in Trentino this year. Diego Ulissi will likely be hunting stage wins in this race, as he has yet to show the sort of endurance to contend for a Grand Tour GC, but with the Cunego, Niemiec, and Ulissi trio, Lampre has one of the best uphill squads in the race.
The list of fellow Italian cycling stars of days past making renewed attempts at glory has even more names: for one, Ivan Basso, winner of the 2010 Giro d’Italia, is also in attendance. Unlike Scarponi or even Cunego, he has not had many recent showings of form, and he looked off the pace in Trentino and Romandie. I also question his team support. He may struggle to hang with the likes of Purito and Quintana as the uphill miles wear on. Androni Giacottoli’s Franco Pellizotti is yet another aging Italian star looking for another shot at success. 3rd here in 2009, Pellizotti has delivered a handful of decent showings in big races in the last year, including a respectable 9th in Trentino in April. Another respectable showing seems within his reach at the Giro d’Italia, though I don’t expect much of a serious GC challenge.
Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman looked sharp in Paris-Nice this year before a mechanical derailed his overall hopes. He’s a strong time trialist who might prefer a less climber-happy route, but Belkin, with star Robert Gesink sidelined indefinitely for health reasons and Bauke Mollema en route to the Giro, has a lot of faith in their young rider. Climber Steven Kruijswijk is along as well. Trek Factory Racing is also placing their faith in new blood. Robert Kiserlovski is coming into his own, with Top 10s in Tirreno-Adriatico and Catalunya. He was actually 10th in the Giro in 2010. As a rider who struggles against the clock, he’ll appreciate the overall parcours, though even with its rolling profile, Stage 12 will likely put a dent in his chances for General Classification. Kiserlovski is one of a number of strong up-and-comers for Trek; star youth Julian Arredondo is taking on his first Grand Tour and will look to animate the race when the road goes up, though stagehunting is a much more realistic goal for the GT rookie. Riccardo Zoidl is another Grand Tour newcomer, a well-rounded rider who looks sharp this season. Trek may not have a big name in this race, but I think we’re likely to see their kit mixing on a few mountain stages and maybe even on the fringes of the GC Top 10.
Sky’s bid for GC rests even further on the periphery. Kanstantin Siutsou has a Giro Top 10 to his name (in 2009) and Dario Cataldo has come close in the past, with a pair of 12th places on his palmares. Unfortunately for the pair, this is not a parcours that favors TT specialists. Pete Kennaugh is a late scratch due to illness.
Other outsiders include Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, who has not shown much of his uphill ability yet this year, but who will like all the mountains if he can find the form. OGE’s Ivan Santaromita is a talented climber who has not had many opportunities to ride for his own ambitions in his career, but the Australian squad will support him in his home Grand Tour. Finally, Team Colombia’s young Fabio Duarte is coming off a very impressive Giro del Trentino and will hope to make an impression for the Pro Continental squad at the top level.
The Stagehunters
As climber-centric as the parcours appears, there are still a number of stages that look like they will end in sprint finishes, due to the fact that most of the days that do not end in uphill charges look to have profiles that the sprinters can handle. Coastal winds and nerves could play their part, but Stages 2-4, all undertaken before any real climbing challenges, look like contests for the fast men, and this opportunity for bunch gallop finishes so early in the race has drawn a fine list of sprinters. At the same time, the scoring system behind the red points jersey was changed this year to offer more points on flat stages, meaning that the points classification is even more likely to go to a sprinter than in the past, further incentivizing participation by the fast men.
The biggest name among them is Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, who won four stages at last year’s Tour de France. Giant sends a squad to this race that is 100% devoted to picking up stage wins, with Kittel as their leader and the very talented (and hot in 2014) Luka Mezgec for the stages where Kittel doesn’t make the finish line. This is a surprisingly common occurrence for the young German fast man, who sacrifices a bit of versatility for all that top speed. With the combined Kittel-Mezgec front, it will be very hard to beat GSH in the sprints stages. Kittel might be the favorite for the points classification if that competition did not require you to finish the race, but it does, and he could struggle to hold on in the grueling final week, especially with the Tour as his main objective.
Giacomo Nizzolo, Tyler Farrar, and Fran Ventoso will hope to challenge for sprint victories.
Cannondale’s Elia Viviani is my pick for top non-Giant sprinter, and as an Italian rider with a strong focus on this race, he may be more inclined to stick it out all the way to Trieste. Viviani had a good 2013, but he has been lights out in 2014, beating Mark Cavendish twice in Turkey. It looks like he’s peaking at the perfect time, making him the most likely rider to challenge the GSH sprinting juggernaut. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni has been on fire this year, winning stages all over the map, and he has the top-end speed to challenge Kittel and Viviani. Giacomo Nizzolo looks strong for Trek after a collarbone injury derailed his early spring campaign. Nizzolo can handle tough days in the saddle and will also look to hang on when his fellow fast men start to abandon. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews will lament the lack of more difficult hilly-but-not-too-mountainous stages that might drop his opponents and give him a chance to sprint from a smaller group, but as he showed in the final stage of last year’s Vuelta, he’s quite capable in a traditional sprintfest. Sky’s dynamic duo of Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen are in a similar boat. Of the two, EBH is very fast but Swift looks like the hotter hand right now. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar has had a resurgent 2014, posting nice results in the classics, and he’ll look to find some tangible success here. OPQS sends Alessandro Petacchi, who still looks remarkably fast in the twilight of his career. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a constant also-ran these days, but he’ll hope to do better this year. Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli, Androni Giocattoli’s Manuel Belletti, Trek’s Boy van Poppel, Movistar’s Fran Ventoso, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio can hold their own in the sprints as well.
A number of punchy, aggressive climber types are on the startlist looking for stages where they can go long. Bardiani’s Stefano Pirazzi, winner of last year’s KOM competition, will almost certainly go off the front as often as possible seeking another mountain jersey and breakaway wins. Androni Giocattoli’s Emanuele Sella will also be looking to repeat an aggressive Giro campaign.
Riders like Diego Ulissi and Julian Arredondo have the climbing chops to hang with the GC riders on at least a few stages but may not actually contend for the overall classification, and as such, they’re likely to have opportunities to hunt stage wins; other strong climbers who fall off the pace for GC will surely be doing the same. Also look for Cannondale’s Moreno Moser and Daniele Ratto, Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi, Omega Pharma’s Wouter Poels, Europcar’s Yukiya Arashiro, and Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, either on stages where punchy riders can match the GC men at a hilly finish or jump off the front of the pack.
Lastly, Adriano Malori of Movistar leads a small contingent of time trial specialists looking for success alongside the GC riders in both the team time trial and in Stage 12’s 41.9 kilometer chrono; squad mate Jonathan Castroviejo will be looking for the same. OGE sends a typically elite bunch to challenge in that discipline, with Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Michael Hepburn, Brett Lancaster, and Cam Mayer all strong against the clock. Thomas de Gendt (3rd in the first time trial at last year’s Tour de France) may be focusing on the ITT as his main goal as well.
VeloHuman Favorites
General Classification
Winner: Nairo Quintana Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Domenico Pozzovivo Other Top Contenders: Cadel Evans, Michele Scarponi, Rigoberto Uran, Daniel Martin, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche
Points Classification
Winner: Elia Viviani
I will be previewing every stage of the race here at VeloHuman.com, so if you’re looking for picks, make sure to bookmark the page; VeloHuman will bring you the stage profiles, favorites and outsiders for every day of racing. Now that you’ve read the overall race preview, check out the preview and favorites for the TTT on Stage 1! Also, there will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. If you’re the type who can’t get enough cycling talk, you will be happy you followed. Hope to see you soon!
The first of three Ardennes Classics went to former World Champ Philippe Gilbert on Sunday after he put the hammer down on his favorite hunting ground, the Cauberg. His uphill strike was so powerful that not even the likes of Alejandro Valverde or Michal Kwiatkowski could reel him in over the final flat 1.8 kilometers of the Amstel Gold Race. Jelle Vanendert made a valiant move past a chasing group for 2nd, and Simon Gerrans outsprinted Valverde and Kwiatkowski for 3rd. A possible bunch sprint was nullified by the power of the big favorites up front: the pack could not survive the impressive climbing skills of Gilbert and Co. on the Cauberg. Anyone who struggled on the Cauberg will have an even harder time on Wednesday, as the peloton takes on the mighty Mur de Huy at La Flèche Wallonne (which I am generally styling as La Fleche Wallonne because accented vowels and easy-to-write, searchable internet text are not great friends).
At 199 kilometers, La Fleche Wallonne is shorter than some of the other classics the peloton has taken on this season. That opens it up a bit to riders who don’t specialize as heavily in the overlong spring races. Still, the route is peppered with grueling ascents in rapid succession, including two trips up the Mur de Huy (1.3 km, 9.3% average grade) before the third and final ascent at the end the race. The group that makes it to the bottom of the final climb will be very much reduced by the day’s many challenges. Unlike the Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne has no 1.8 kilometer drag after its decisive climb. The Mur is also steeper than the Cauberg. This is a race that goes to explosive climbers, period. Last year’s Top 10 was a who’s who of ascending heavyweights (figuratively, as all of them are, of course, quite light of frame). Daniel Moreno was strongest on the day, with Sergio Henao, Carlos Betancur, and Daniel Martin hot on his heels. Purito, Valverde, and Mollema weren’t far behind. La Fleche Wallonne 2013 was decided in the final moments on the climb to the top of the Mur, and it’s hard to see a different script for 2014, though there will be some other riders playing the roles this time around. Before I name my top names, a note: as usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of analysis live during the contest, so be sure to follow @VeloHuman for more real-time thoughts on the race!
The Contenders
Philippe Gilbert won the race in 2011 and podiumed in 2012. He seemed to have lost a bit of a form for 2013, but his victories at Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold this year have catapulted him back into the conversation. He played his cards just right at Amstel, exploding up the climb and then hanging on over a not insignificant distance. A crucial component in his victory was an attack from teammate Samuel Sanchez, who will join him again at La Fleche Wallonne, making BMC an even tougher opponent for the rest of the pack. Still, with such a brutal climb to close out the race, even Gilbert’s punchy legs will be put on the limit trying to hold off some Grand Tour talent. He will also no longer benefit from the hesitation that he’s gotten from his rivals in the past several month of reduced form; everyone knows Gilbert is back now.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is another past winner of the race, and he will certainly be among the favorites to contend for this year’s La Fleche Wallonne. The bookies’ favorite for Amstel Gold finished 4th on the day after being unable to follow Gilbert on the final climb, though I do wonder if a part of his failure to cover the Belgian’s attack was indecision and hesitation, as he, Simon Gerrans, and Michal Kwiatkowski did not react immediately to the move on the Cauberg. He’ll get a chance at revenge on Wednesday. Without the injury question marks of some of the other big contenders, I imagine Valverde will occupy at least one of the spots on the podium for this race. Mountain goat teammates like Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti make his bid for victory a formidable one.
Were it not for the aforementioned health issues confusing things, there are three riders I might favor among Gilbert and Valverde; unfortunately, each comes with unknowns. First and foremost is Joaquim Rodriguez. Katusha has dominated this race in the past two years: Purito won in 2012, and Daniel Moreno won in 2013. Both riders are perfectly suited to the finish on the Mur de Huy, and more than capable of making it there without too much trouble. However, Rodriguez crashed out of yesterday’s Amstel Gold and was immediately taken to the hospital for further examination. Reports indicate that he did not suffer any serious injury, but there was also talk that he was a bit dizzy after going down. None of this inspires confidence. It doesn’t help that he is really targeting Sunday’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and next month’s Giro, and will probably be willing to take La Fleche Wallonne easy if he thinks it’s necessary for recovery. Were it not for the question marks, Purito’s form this year and his skillset might have made him my overall favorite, but as it stands, it’s hard to put that kind of confidence in him. His teammate Moreno, winner last year, may be a better choice, with a similar skillset and a proven ability to win the race. Moreno was 9th in Amstel yesterday and 3rd behind Contador and Quintana in the summit finish fourth stage of Tirreno-Adriatico this year, so he’s looking strong to defend his title here in 2014.
2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner Daniel Martin is another would-be favorite with injury question marks. He pulled out of Amstel Gold early with knee pain. He has stated that he does not think it will be a lasting issue, but like Purito, Martin is targeting Liege and the Giro and he has a capable teammate (in Tom-Jelte Slagter) to take up the reigns if he decides to take it easy. Were his health not in question, La Fleche Wallonne’s finish would be ideal for the Irishman, who came in 4th last year (he missed a podium place by about half a centimeter), and probably would have done better had he not been somewhat out of position at the start of the final climb. Should Martin not be up for it, Garmin will turn turn to the hot hand in Slagter. He was disappointing at Amstel Gold, but the young rider might have a bit more left in the tank at the end of the shorter race on Wednesday. Ryder Hesjedal was not long ago one of the better Ardennes riders in the peloton and he’ll be in attendance as well.
AG2R’s Carlos Betancur is the other injury-bitten top rider in the race. He was 3rd here last year and he is on fire in 2014. Unfortunately, he’s also been suffering from a knee issue lately, and it’s very much unclear what his status is for La Fleche Wallonne. He did not contend at Amstel Gold, but he didn’t get dropped off the pace right away either. His tools (perfect for this race) and body of work put him among my top 10 riders in this race, as I think he’s quite capable of winning, but it’s hard to say whether he’ll be able to put all that ability to good use. Romain Bardet will be the other option for AG2R, and the way he’s been climbing this year, he could feature in the finale.
Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS was 5th in the race last year. Given his blazing form in 2014, I’d imagine we’ll see him in the vanguard on the Mur again this year, but the do-it-all 23-year-old might find the finish line just a bit too steep for his liking. As versatile as he is, he may be looking to Sunday’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege as a prize more suited to his talents. Still, anything is possible for Kwiatkowski. OPQS has another strong card to play in Wout Poels, who has been climbing very well this year and could take a crack at the final ascent himself. Jan Bakelants makes another strong supporter.
Lampre’s three-pronged attack was unable to make much of a mark on the Amstel Gold Race, but I think they’re better suited to La Fleche Wallonne: Diego Ulissi is a star on these finishes, and his biggest weakness so far in his career has been long days in the saddle. Significantly shorter than its Ardennes brethren, La Fleche Wallonne is perfect for Ulissi, and he is targeting this race heavily. He came to the base of the Cauberg with the pack at Amstel Gold, which suggests to me that he is in shape and primed for success in a race more tailored to his talents. Teammate and World Champ Rui Costa could also give things a go. The Mur might be a bit too steep for his liking, but victory in this race requires perfect timing and Costa has one of the sharpest minds for strategy in the entire peloton. Damiano Cunego has a pair of podium performances in La Fleche Wallonne on his resume, but even with his surprise 2014 form I’m not sure he can hang with the best in the bunch anymore, especially not after an anonymous showing in an Amstel Gold Race that suited him better.
I had questions about Bauke Mollema‘s form coming into Amstel Gold, but his 7th place in that race answered them for me. La Fleche Wallonne puts the spotlight more squarely on the GC climber types, and Mollema has the kind of climbing legs to contend for Grand Tours. He also has a very strong finish and a very aggressive approach, which are key in this race, and they’ve given him back-to-back Top 10s here in the past. I would put Mollema among the best value bets for a podium in this race, just a few steps outside the spotlight but very capable of contending. Talented climbers Lars Petter Nordhaug and Laurens Ten Dam make a fine support squad. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger was unable to defend his Amstel Gold title, but like Mollema, he is a Grand Tour climber with a strong finish. Though he did not feature among the contenders, he was among the Top 20 on Sunday, and the vicious Mur de Huy gives him another chance at victory. Teammate Nicolas Roche is building up to the Giro and could also make a move.
Astana again brings their talent-packed squad to the startline; Enrico Gasparotto was their best placed finisher at Amstel, coming in 8th, but Jakob Fuglsang looked strong in a breakaway and Vincenzo Nibali came to the base of the Cauberg with the pack. Nibali was 8th in La Fleche Wallonne in 2012 and he has the uphill ability to land another top result. Fuglsang isn’t well-known for explosiveness but he’s certainly got the climber’s physique. The Mur might be too much for Gasparotto and Iglinskiy but they’ll be valuable teammates as well.
Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert suddenly roared back into relevance with a runner-up performance at Amstel Gold, where he chased heavier favorites up the Cauberg and sailed past many of them on his way to 2nd place. He has a pair of La Fleche Wallonne top 10s to his name as well, so he certainly deserves a look for Wednesday’s race. Teammate Tony Gallopin is another good climber and one-day rider, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck nabbed the final spot in the top 10 in 2012.
Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge won’t be riding this race (the finish is a bit too steep for him), so they send punchy Ivan Santaromita, 2012 runner-up Michael Albasini, aggressive Pieter Weening and Simon Clark, and Simon and Adam Yates to represent their interests. No favorites among them, but plenty of riders to animate the race. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has had an impressive start to the season and will like the finish. Andy Schleck crashed out of Amstel Gold, but he should make the start with brother Frank, who has shown signs of life in 2014. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank is a good climber who will be riding for his own interests for once. Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin and Warren Barguil will hope to make an impact. Sky’s best bets are probably Mikel Nieve and David Lopez. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is still looking for success in 2014. Daniel Navarro of Cofidis is a strong climber with a decent supporting cast. They’ll all have their work cut out for them in a race with a finish that tends to weed out long shots, but a number of the contenders are facing injury concerns, which could open doors at La Fleche Wallonne 2014.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Philippe Gilbert Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Moreno Other Top Contenders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema, Vincenzo Nibali, Michal Kwiatkowski, Carlos Betancur, Daniel Martin
The Scenario: A Climber’s Dream Course in Catalunya
Just one day after the first sprinter-friendly Milano-Sanremo in years, the Volta a Catalunya, a climber’s dream course, begins about an hour north of Barcelona in Calella, Spain. 2014’s Volta a Catalunya, like past editions of the race, offers a parcours rife with uphill action, including a third stage dominated by Alt de la Creueta, a climb that caps a larger section of over 30 kilometers at an over 3% on average grade. That brutal stage finishes atop the Category 1 summit of La Molina, but the riders will have little time to rest before embarking on the fourth stage, where they will be welcomed by three Category 1 climbs and a summit finish at the Vallter 2000 ski resort. Stage 6 looks like the only day that the GC contenders will try to take comfortably, with almost 60 downhill or flat kilometers into the finish. While not as demanding as the two aforementioned high mountain days, stages 1, 2, 5, and 7 will require the overall contenders to be on their toes, with late climbs likely to inspire attacks. In short, this is not a race for the faint of heart, or the heavy of frame. The parcours has drawn quite a startlist, one that will pit some of the top GC climbers against one another in a contest of early season form.
Before I dive in, the important notes: follow the still-practically-brand-new Twitter account @VeloHuman for plenty of live analysis during the race (and check it out soon for live Milano-Sanremo updates and analysis)! MSR post-race thoughts will be up not long after today’s contest, and the next preview on the docket is the 28th’s E3 Harelbeke, so you might as well just keep this window open for a few days to come!
All-rounder Roundup
Chris Froome dropped out of Tirreno-Adriatico with back pain, but he’ll be lining up for the Volta a Catalunya at the head of Sky’s finest to make a bid for victory. He reminded the peloton of his supremacy atop Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman in late February, but he hasn’t raced since, making the form, and the general health, something of an unknown. He’ll need all his ability against the field. Fortunately, trusted lieutenant Richie Porte will be there to play second. Porte was forced to abandon Tirreno-Adriatico for health reasons himself, but he looked sharp there before he left. Together with climbing talents Mikel Nieve and David Lopez, Sky’s top GC riders will look to pick up results at the WorldTour level. It is hard to predict how they will do, given health concerns, but if nagging issues are resolved by the time the race begins, obviously they’re quite the one-two punch, even without a time trial in the race.
A revitalized Alberto Contador (who “won” this race in 2011, but was stripped of the title as part of his doping penlaties) took Tirreno-Adriatico by storm, and he’ll attend Catalunya looking to further prove his improved form against those riders who were not in attendance during his spectacular Stage 5 performance in Italy, ie. Froome, Porte, and Joaquim Rodriguez. Contador’s team will not include his chief lieutenant Roman Kreuziger or Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka was a late scratch, leaving him a bit understaffed with lieutenants. The big question for Contador is whether he can maintain the otherworldly level he was on last week into this week’s contest.
Joaquim Rodriguez leads Katusha’s charge alongside Daniel Moreno. Purito was 2nd here last year and won in 2010, and he looked on fine form in Oman. Moreno was very strong last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, among the best climbers in the race. With no troublesome time trials to put them behind the likes of Froome and Porte, Catalunya will likely see the usual uphill fireworks from these two, with plenty of potential stage wins in play. Moreno and Rodriguez are both known for explosiveness and fast finishes, but they’ve also gotten better and better on the long haul climbs, and they’ll need to be at their best with a few ascents that seem to go on forever in this race.
4th in last year’s edition was Movistar’s Nairo Quintana, who is coming off a sharp 2nd place in Tirreno-Adriatico. He was not able to match Alberto Contador’s uphill ability there, but he also had not taken part in a stage race in almost two months. I think he will be a bit more acclimated to the grind now. The unrelenting climbing will suit his skillset perfectly. Update: there are reports that Quintana is taking antibiotics to get over a cold, which will obviously make things harder for him here.
Last year’s winner (and prior to that, two time runner-up) Daniel Martin, was made for this race and its parcours. The pure climber sealed his victory in 2013 with a fearless uphill attack on the 4th stage that left Purito and Quintana in its wake. His past results here might make him a bigger favorite in this race if his form weren’t such a question mark. With his eyes on a defense of Monument classic Liege-Bastogne-Liege and then a Giro starting in his home country of Ireland, Martin’s goals may have shifted somehwat this year. He’s still a strong contender, but Ryder Hesjedal (form also a question mark), late addition Andrew Talansky, and Tom Danielson are other cards for Garmin to play should Martin not be at peak form just yet.
AG2R sends a fearsome trio to Catalunya, led by Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur. Questions about his shape and form were more than answered by his dominance in P-N, and Catalunya is another opportunity for him to make a statement, this time against better GC-style competition. Domenico Pozzovivo had a fine Tirreno-Adriatico, notching a 6th place. Romain Bardet‘s chances at Paris-Nice were derailed by an early crash, but he’ll be yet another uphill option for AG2R in Spain this week.
Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran seemed 100% committed to the cause of teammate Michal Kwiatkowski last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, and did not challenge for GC himself. Still, I believe he is in good form, and probably looking for a chance to prove it; against many the top climbers in the sport, he’ll have a good chance this week. New teammate Thomas de Gendt took his last pro victory in the final stage of this race in 2013. Perhaps he’ll look to 2014 as an opportunity to get back on track. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen looked very strong in Oman, second on the decisive climb to Chris Froome, but had to abandon Paris-Nice early due to illness. If he still has the kind of form that he showed in Oman, he has a fine opportunity here, with a chance to put his uphill diesel engine to work on these long climbs. Teammate Samuel Sanchez has had a great deal of success in this race over the years, winning stages and landing several strong GC showings, though it’s hard to guess his form right now.
Chris Horner abandoned Tirreno-Adriatico with tendinitis, but he looked sharp before then; teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec made last year’s top 10. Wilco Kelderman leads a strong Belkin team, and he’ll hope Cataluyna will provide the chance for glory than an untimely mechanical stole from him in Paris-Nice; he looked strong in that race. Laurens Ten Dam and Steven Kruisjwijk are good support options. Ivan Basso struggled in Tirreno-Adriatico, but he’ll look to rebound for Cannondale here. Warren Barguil leads Giant-Shimano up the Spanish climbs. Various ailments have kept Thibaut Pinot out of races early this year, but he took 8th place here last year and obviously the profile suits him if he’s healthy; Alexandre Geniez, Arnold Jeanneason and Kenny Elissonde are all strong support riders or backup options if need be for FDJ. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland and Thomas Voeckler will try to bring that team some success on up-down terrain that seems to suit them. Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest impressions of last week’s Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Colombian climbing talent will love this time trial-less, route; meanwhile, teammate Robert Kiserlovski made it two in the top 10 for Trek at T-A, giving a team in sore need of GC contenders a surprising pair of them here. Lotto’s Jurgen van den Broeck will look to get on track after a series of disappointments this year. Astana sends Janez Brajkovic, Mikel Landa, and young Fabio Aru. Cofidis sends 2013 Tour top 10 finisher Daniel Navarro, who looked good in Andalucia. Caja Rural sends David Arroyo and Luis Leon Sanchez, who also looked good in Andalucia. The Pro Continental squads will have their work cut out for them against so many top climbers leading top climbing squads here. Update: Top-notch climber Jakob Fuglsang is a late addition to the Astana squad and therefore joins the realm of outside contenders.
Stagehunters
With so many stages for the GC style climbers, staggeringly few sprinters are even bothering to make the trip (no time trials means there aren’t any chrono men seeking ITT wins either). Stage 6 is likely to be contested by a pretty select list of riders in a mass gallop. AG2R’s Sam Dumoulin (who has excelled in this race, taking three stages in the past) Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo (coming off a broken collarbone), Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, Lotto’s Gregory Henderson, and OGE’s Leigh Howard look to be the most capable fast men on the start list. The first three also happen to be fairly versatile riders, for whom some of the hillier stages are not out of the realm of possibility. Anthony Roux is the sort of rider who might take advantage of some of the lumpier days. It seems inevitable that Caja Rural’s Amets Txurruka and Trek’s Jens Voigt will spend some time up the road looking for long-range victories. At least with so few riders making the start who aren’t focused on their own or their teammates’ GC aspirations, the stagehunters will have less competition for their one-day goals!
VeloHuman GC Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana Challengers: Carlos Betancur, Rigoberto Uran, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin
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As exciting as Purito’s second Monument win in rainy Northern Italy was, it wasn’t particularly surprising. Tommy Voeckler tried to make things interesting with one of his characteristic long distance attacks, and at one point he had a fairly decent gap, but his solo move was doomed to fail when the contenders actually decided to chase him down as they closed in on Lecco, and all his grimaces were for naught. From then it was a battle between the favorites who had survived hard climbs and tough conditions, and despite the fact that everyone knew it was coming, Joaquim Rodriguez was able to distance all of them with his own decisive late attack.
Inches away from victory in the World Championship after a nearly successful late uphill strike, Rodriguez was clearly on elite form, and primed for a major win, even if it didn’t come on the World Championship stage. He won Il Lombardia last October, and this year, the external conditions and his physical condition echoed 2012: he shot off the front of an elite group of survivors at the same time as he did last year on the Villa Vergano, and again soloed to the victory in the rain, escaping a spirited pursuit from Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, and Rafal Majka.
Takeaways
At 34, it seems like Rodriguez is riding at the highest level in his career, more explosive on the climbs than ever. As Chris Froome is officially out of the Tour of Beijing, the victory in Lombardy gives Joaquim Rodriguez his third WorldTour Numero Uno, and just as he did in 2012, it was a late move on an Italian ascent that nabbed him his biggest win of the year and the overall title. The rider who spent so many years coming up just short in one-day events made it look easy, and expected, on his way to another highly coveted achievement, the top of the rankings.
The other strong performers weren’t all that surprising either, though I’ll make a few brief notes to at least provide a few takeaways other than “Purito is really good, but we knew that already.” For one, Alejandro Valverde has been a hot rider all season, and, like Purito, has stood on the podium in a boatload of huge races: Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Vuelta a España, the World Championship Road Race, and now Il Lombardia. He took the points classification at the Vuelta for his constant presence near the top of the leaderboard on stage after stage. And yet, Valverde will finish the year without a single WorldTour victory. His showings these past two weekends have typified what was all too common for the Green Bullet this year: he hung at the head of the peloton and made it onto the back of every move except the final, successful, race-winning one, and outsprinted everyone else in his pack of pursuers for 2nd or 3rd. Obviously he still has a ton of talent, but he’s come up just short so many times this year, and it makes me wonder whether he might not have benefitted from taking a few more risks trying to get into late moves or making his own.
Rafal Majka will be a name to watch in 2013. Top 10 at the Giro and on the podium in Lombardy, Majka was one of a group of four riders, the other three of whom have all won Monument classics, who were clearly the best climbers in the race. He turned 24 in September, which means he’ll be 24 almost all of next season, too, and it seems likely that by this time in 2014, he’ll have officially won his first pro race. Saxo Bank has to be excited to have such a talented young rider coming into his own just as their team leader is starting to draw questions. Right behind him, Dan Martin has had a year both immensely satisfying (victories in Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Volta a Cataluyna, and a stage in the Tour de France) and extremely frustrating (illness derailed his top 10 bid in the Tour de France and he crashed out of the Vuelta a España and the World Championship Road Race). Sunday was a bit of both for the Irish star: with only a few hundred meters to go, the Garmin rider was a sprint against Majka away from a podium spot in his second Monument of the year when a mechanical/crash ruined his shot. He settled for 4th. It was hard to predict his form coming into Lombardy because of his bad fortune in so many races leading up to this one, but he showed that he’s hot right now and goes into the Tour of Beijing as a leading candidate for victory, assuming he doesn’t have another crash or mechanical issue when it matters.
I’m most interested in mentioning the rider who finished 5th: Enrico Gasparotto. If you’re keeping score at home, you may have missed the fact that Gasparotto has now been in the top 10 in Il Lombardia, GP Montreal, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and Amstel Gold after winning Amstel Gold in 2012, and yet, he is constantly overlooked by prognosticators (like me) for teammate Vincenzo Nibali. Gasparotto obviously can sprint and attack on the slopes, and maybe next time he takes on a one-day climber’s race, he should get a little bit more respect; even if Nibali hadn’t crashed, the Shark doesn’t have much of a sprint and hasn’t shown the kind of explosive bursts of the Purito/Valverde/Moreno/Martin variety. Gasparotto, on the other hand, won a huge race (Amstel Gold) last year and has almost kept pace with these other huge names on numerous occasions since. To Nibali: he crashed out on wet Italian roads, something he managed to deftly avoid during his dominant Giro d’Italia (he did crash in the rain during the Grand Tour, but he was able to get back on the bike and keep going). He crashed and clearly burned up energy the past weekend at the Champs race as well. Obviously, he’ll be frustrated with these occurrences, but I’m not sure how great a shot he has in these sorts of races anyway. Hopefully we’ll have a few chances next year to see him at 100% and not on the deck in crunch time.
The rest of your top 10 finished together: the sprint for 6th was rather easily won by the ever present Dani Moreno (what a year for Rodriguez’s friend and lieutenant, and behind him were young Pieter Serry (watch out for him next year as a third or fourth option for OPQS in the climber’s classics after top 10s here and in San Sebastian this year), aging Franco Pellizotti, Italian champ Ivan Santaromia, and late-form-finder Robert Gesink. Ivan Basso, Thibaut Pinot, Domenico Pozzovivo, and Nairo Quintana were among the riders also finishing in Moreno’s group who didn’t make it in the sprint for the rest of the top 10 positions.
Peter Sagan couldn’t hang with the group over the early climbs and was out of the wet very early. Gilbert and Van Avermaet were both able to stay with the main contenders all the way to the final decisive climb, and they finished respectively in the top 20. Meanwhile, I wasn’t thrilled that Movistar wasted now world champion Rui Costa as a domestique once again, but perhaps he was tired after a week of photo opportunities and didn’t have the legs to contend for the victory. Diego Ulissi and Rigoberto Uran both fell off the pace when the going got tough, disappointingly, and Ulissi’s teammate Michele Scarponi abandoned due to illness.
All things considered, this year’s Il Lombardia managed to stay very exciting despite its similarity to both last week’s World Championship race and last year’s edition of Il Lombardia. Purito made the viewing experience worth it, and became a two-time Monument winner in the process.
For all those big name riders who missed out on last week’s climber’s classic in Italy, this Sunday provides a perfect opportunity for redemption: another climber’s classic in Italy, 2013’s final Monument: Il Lombardia. It’s the last one-day WorldTour race of the year, the final Monument, and it’s well-timed, a race for the uphill specialists coming after a rare Championship race geared towards the same crowd, meaning that the contenders will be at the top of their game for a race that has, in the past, often featured riders in fading form.
Last weekend’s grueling Worlds proved to be a competition for the GC types in the end, but up until the last lap around Florence, it wasn’t so clear whether they’d be able to drop Spartacus and his type; Il Lombardia, though, has steeper, more selective slopes that will require even more climbing prowess, putting the spotlight squarely on the lighter men in the peloton.
The Valico di Valcava kicks things off before the halfway mark, 11 kilometers at an 8% gradient, a climb worthy of a high mountain stage in a Grand Tour. After another bump in the road, the Colle Brianza, the peloton takes on the very challenging wall of Sormano, touching gradients in the mid 20% range, with it’s summit a little more than 80 kilometers before the finish. It’s followed by a steep downhill and some flat land to give those dropped a chance to catch up, but regardless it will take a lot out of the legs of the heavier riders. The winding road up to the Madonna del Ghisallo is an irregular ascent that fluctuates between 10% sections and short periods of respite. Next up is a challenging descent, and then another 20 kilometers of flattish roads before the Villa Vergano climb, which, since being added to the parcours in 2011, has been the battleground on which this Monument has been decided. After so many intense lumps along the way to the finish in Lecco, the final test of 3.4 km at 8%, with a steeper run towards the top, is sure to launch the winner, or the small winning group, to victory.
Purito won in Lombardy last year, finally taking a well-earned first Monument title, and he’s the leading favorite again this year. He was agonizingly close to the rainbow jersey last Sunday when his attempt to solo away on the final slopes was shot down by a hard-charging Rui Costa. But if he’s maintained that top-level form into this Sunday, Rodriguez will have another excellent opportunity here, with a final launching pad perfectly designed for his punchy style that could create more of a gap than in Florence and less of a chance for chasers to catch back up. While said climb is almost 10 kilometers from the finish and followed by a downhill and then a flat (though technical) run-in towards the line, but the difficulty level of the slopes will inspire furious attacks that Purito can hope will prevent another sprint finish; not that he’s bad in a drag to the line, but certainly he’d prefer to avoid another last second disappointment to someone with a better kick. His teammate Daniel Moreno will be an excellent alternative option, especially if more than one rider is at the front of the race in the last kilometer. Moreno’s explosive style has netted him some big wins so far this year; he’s shown that not only can he hang on when things get hectic in a climber’s finish, but that he can be the one forcing the selection.
Last weekend’s climactic finish makes previewing this weekend’s race easier: every other member of the star-studded cast that made it into Rodriguez’s final move last Sunday should be counted as a favorite again this weekend, including, of course, the two riders who are teammates again in a race of trade teams: Alejandro Valverde and Rui Costa. Despite all of his incredible talent, Costa might have been riding this race in support of Valverde had he not taken the rainbow jersey in Florence; Movistar has undervalued Costa in the past. However, now that he is the World Champion, Costa will probably be given freedom to make his own moves, and who can doubt his ability and his expertise after last week. Still, Valverde is Valverde, and if nobody is able to break free, he’ll be the one to beat in a sprint finish. Movistar has even more cards to play than these two: Nairo Quintana may not have much of a one-day resume, but if there is any one top tier classic for the young rider to make his mark, it’s Lombardy. Giovanni Visconti and Benat Intxausti have both won similarly challenging races in Italy this year (during the Giro).
Home favorite Vincenzo Nibali managed to finish in 4th place last weekend despite having to dig deep to get back into the peloton after a late crash; who knows what might have been had he had that extra energy to use in the finish. The Giro winner will love the chance to show his strength in another challenging parcours, and he’s sure to make a move to break with the bunch when the road goes up late, as he doesn’t have much of a sprint to contend with the likes of Valverde, Moreno, or Costa. This lack of top-tier drag-racing talent has kept Nibali from having much success in single day races so far, but he’s on the form of his life, one of the top 5 riders in the sport this year, and it’s almost guaranteed that he’ll attempt to use his elite soloing ability to take the win. He may have a tough challenge climbing to the top of the podium, but of all the contenders, I see Nibali as by far the most likely to finish in the top 10.
Sky’s Rigoberto Uran took a nasty fall on a wet descent in the waning minutes of the championship, taking himself out of the running for the final push. It’s a shame, because the explosive rider might have made a splash. He was on the podium in Lombardy last year (in fact, he was on the podium all the way back in 2008 as well), and he has the tools to improve on those performances here in 2013. Surprisingly, Uran has yet to take that big marquee classic victory (last year’s Gran Piemonte was a great first step at the 1.HC level, but a Monument win would be on a whole new plane). With the Sergio Henao for company (and as a good alternative, as Henao has had some fine results in one-day races), Uran will be a fierce challenger for the victory Sunday.
Michele Scarponi lasted for a few moments in the decisive move during the World Championship race, and he’s been close to victory on numerous occasions in the past few weeks, coming up short again and again in the Vuelta. He’s another good home option riding for an Italian squad, but I think the real favorite on Lampre-Merida is young Diego Ulissi, who just took the midweek Milano-Torino. He has a great sprint (as he showed in the opening stage of this year’s Tour de Pologne, where he came out on top in a reduced bunch finish in a group fifteen strong after a late climb) and clearly the form to mix it up on the ascents. He’s not a great descender, and he’ll hope against hope for good weather, but if the conditions aren’t too nasty, Diego Ulissi could pose a serious challenge against the collection of better known, more established riders in the race.
Dan Martin was one of a number of big names last week to suffer an unfortunate crash in the rain, but the fall did not seem to have any lasting effects. 2nd in the 2011 edition of this event, where he outkicked a group that included Purito and Ivan Basso for the title of runner-up, Martin has had quite a string of misfortune after his amazing early season success. If he can manage to stay on the bike the whole race, he’s primed for success here, with a parcours perfectly suited to his skillset. He denied Rodriguez a second Monument when he passed him en route to the win at Liege-Bastogne-Liege this spring, and he’d love the chance to collect a second one himself here at Il Lombardia in similar late-breaking fashion.
Saxo-Tinkoff’s Alberto Contador was one of the many DNFs last weekend as well, but he was fifth in Milano-Torino, suggesting he has found some late season form after disappointing time and again in 2013. He’ll have allies trying to outrun the better sprinters on the final climbs, and he also has a strong team behind him. Rafal Majka was runner-up at Milano-Torino. He’s actually never won a pro race, but he’s come close a number of times and he’s got a great finish to match his climbing legs. Nicolas Roche finally came good after years of being touted with a great showing in the Vuelta, and he’s another option for the team.
AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo nabbed fourth in Milano-Torino. He’s had a very strong 2013 and he’s kept a high level of climbing form all year. Carlos Betancur looked better last weekend than he did during his disappointing Vuelta, and should he find the form that went missing sometime this summer, he could surprise for his team this Sunday.
With Bauke Mollema out, Robert Gesink leads Belkin into the year’s last Monument. He showed an impressive sprint in Canada and he’s obviously a great climber. He heads up a strong team: Lars Petter Nordhaug had a good World Championship race, Laurens Ten Dam is another great climber, and Tom-Jelte Slagter is a versatile rider with a fast finish.
Philippe Gilbert has won this race twice, as recently as 2009 and 2010, but that seems like another lifetime for the Belgian star. He’s still got a great kick but he isn’t climbing as well as he used to. It’s not entirely out of the question that Gilbert finds those legs on Sunday, and if he manages to keep up with the attacks from the climbing heavyweights, obviously he’s a big favorite to outrun them at the line. BMC teammate Greg Van Avermaet is similarly positioned, a great all-rounder for whom Lombardy’s climbs might be just a bit too much. Strong climbers Ivan Santaromita, Mathias Frank, and Tejay van Garderen may be better options for BMC than the former champ Gilbert.
Perhaps more likely is that Peter Sagan keeps up with Nibali et al. He just missed out in Florence, leading his group across the line for 6th place behind the climbing stars, and while Lombardy has more challenging climbs, it’s also shorter than the World Championship race. The young Slovakian has sometimes struggled in the most grueling of endurance races, and maybe with fewer kilometers to tackle, he’ll be more up for the ascents. His handling ability will be useful on the windy roads and he’ll surely be the man to beat in a sprint if he can hang on, though I don’t think the odds are in his favor. Teammate and two-time Giro d’Italia winner Ivan Basso finished 4th in Lombardy in 2011 and will be a better bet to stick with his fellow GC types. He showed good form in the Vuelta before abandoning on a day of nasty weather in the mountains, and he has a surprising finishing kick.
Omega Pharma – Quick Step has a stable of all-rounder talent who will also be pushed to the limit, but who are capable of surprising. Michal Kwiatkowski has a very fast finish and when he’s on form, he can climb at a very high level, and Sylvain Chavanel, in his last WorldTour classic with OPQS, is a great bet to try for a long distance strike.
A few other outsiders: Tommy Voeckler, Franco Pellizotti, Damiano Cunego, Chris Anker Sorensen, Alexandr Kolobnev, Rinaldo Nocentini, Warren Barguil, Thibaut Pinot, the Radioshack duo of Jan Bakelants and Andy Schleck, and Orica-GreenEdge’s trio of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, and Simon Clarke, who was impressive in the World Championship road race. For anyone with ambitions of winning, it will be hard to overcome the odds in one of the biggest events on the calendar against the top talents in the world all on form from their championship runs, but the late season classics have been full of surprises and excitement this year.
VeloHuman Predictions
Winner
Joaquim Rodriguez
Podium
Rigoberto Uran, Vincenzo Nibali
Top 10
Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin, Diego Ulissi, Robert Gesink, Michele Scarponi
