Tag: John Degenkolb

Tour de France 2015: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Mende › Valence – 183km

Sandwiched between two days with relatively difficult late climbs, the 15th stage of the Tour de France has a profile that could give the sprinters one last chance at stage glory before Paris—but things will likely be harder than they look on the road to Valence.

The riders will be climbing immediately off the startline, with an uncategorized uphill drag into the Cat. 3 Côte de Badaroux on tap right away. Expect some of the more aggressive climbing specialists to attempt an early break on the way up. From the top it’s a relatively flat road to the next categorized climb almost 60 kilometers later, but said Cat. 4, the Col du Bez, is immediately followed by another, the Col de la Croix de Bauzon. Then comes a very long descent down to the intermediate sprint at Aubenas.

From there, it’s only a short way to the foot of the final climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Col de l’Escrinet, 7.9km long at a 5.8% average gradient. From the top of the climb it’s another long descent, about 25 kilometers, into a flat and relatively straightforward final 30 kilometers.

The climbs are not especially hard, and the long flat stretch into the finish line will give the sprinters hope for a bunch kick, but they’ll have to reel in the breakaway first. The race is about to enter a challenging stretch of Alpine stages, and the peloton might be hoping to make it through Stage 15 without too much trouble on the way to one more medium mountain stage and then a much-needed rest day before the GC action picks up.

If the break is caught, it will be thanks to a few dedicated sprinters’ teams hoping for a last shot at stage glory before the Alps, and the chase will have likely taken something out of the pack, which could give a boost to the stronger, more versatile quick men despite the pan-flat finish. The Col de l’Escrinet is not an easy bump in the road either, and it could further wear down some of the heavier quick men.

Etixx-QuickStep will have the option of riding hard to keep Mark Cavendish in play for a sprint, or riding less hard to get the more versatile Matteo Trentin into position for a bunch kick. Cav is probably the first option, and if he’s in the lead group in the final few kilometers, he will be hard to beat, but that’s far from a given. Trentin is a strong alternative.

André Greipel and Cavendish seem pretty closely matched right now, but I think Cavendish still has the speed to win all things being equal (though the disparity in positioning in the first two bunch sprints stages in the Tour are good reminders that Tour de France sprints don’t occur in a vacuum). In any case, a lot of things will have to go right for both of them for that to be the scenario that decides the stage.

Peter Sagan has come remarkably close to stage victories even on the flattest days so far in this race, thanks to his excellent form at the moment. He’ll have a chance in a big bunch sprint here, but a day spent in the breakaway on Stage 14 and the brutal finishing climb at the end of that stage probably took something out of him. Having to go for every intermediate sprint doesn’t really help. It seems unlikely that he’ll be in the break again, so Sagan, like the other quick men, will probably need to rely on the catch being made to have any shot at victory, and then he’ll need to beat other quick men who may have a bit more in the tank.

John Degenkolb should be in prime position to take advantage of a potential sprint after a moderately challenging day, and a probably tired Peter Sagan. He’s quick enough to win sprint finishes as it is, and the parcours and race situation are likely to weigh in his favor. Stage 15 offers a much better chance for Degenkolb to pick up his first career Tour win than the finale in paris will be—though that’s all assuming the break is caught.

Alexander Kristoff has not had quite the same level of success in the 2015 Tour that he had in 2014, but the stage suits his skillset. Arnaud Démare, Davide Cimolai, Tyler Farrar, Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews and Bryan Coquard are others with a chance at success if this comes down to the pack.

Naming potential breakaway candidates for this stage is tough because it’s not quite as difficult a stage as those that have preceded it, or those that are about to follow, lengthening the already long list of riders who could have a shot at taking a win from afar.

Simon Geschke has a fast finishing kick and a knack for getting up the road—he’s come close to big Grand Tour wins in the past and this is an excellent parcours for him.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages, but his ability to get up the road and his powerful finishing kick make him a good breakaway contender for Stage 15.

The same could be said for Sylvain Chavanel—he has not made much of an impression on this Tour de France but the Stage 15 profile suits him very well, with plenty of space for him to power clear for a solo bid, or potentially hold out for a small group sprint from a breakaway.

Jan Barta, Ryder Hesjedal, Jan Bakelants, Ramunas Navardauskas, Thomas De Gendt, Lars Bak, Michal Kwiatkowski, and Sep Vanmarcke are others to watch out for in a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 15.

-Dane Cash

July 18, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Seraing › Cambrai – 223.5km

On the heels of another thrilling early stage in the 2015 Tour de France (won by Joaquim Rodríguez atop the Mur de Huy), the fourth day of the Tour brings the Classics-style opening to the race to a cobbled finale in northern France. It’s a comparatively long stage at 223.5 kilometers, and though mostly flat (there is only one categorized climb, a Cat. 4, early on in the day), a collection of seven cobblestone sectors will offer plenty of challenges to make things interesting.

The first comes about halfway through the day, and then the final six come between the 50km-to-go mark and the 10km-to-go mark, in relatively rapid succession and with never more than 10 kilometers without cobbles inside the final 50 kilometers of racing.

It’s important to point out here that the parcours of the cobbled stage in the 2015 Tour looks a bit different from the parcours of the decisive Stage 5 of the 2014 Tour. On the one hand, this day will be longer than that one was, by about 70 kilomteters. On the other hand, the cobbled sectors aren’t quite as vicious this year. At the moment, the weather forecast does call for some difficult conditions for Stage 4, though things don’t appear to be as dire as they were for last year’s cobbled stage. Still, things could get pretty windy, and there is some chance of rain.

After a painful crash in Stage 3, Fabian Cancellara has abandoned the race, but there are still plenty of big-name Classics riders on the startlist who have had their sights on this stage since it was announced months ago. The GC riders, on the other hand, will be holding on as best they can, hoping to limit potential losses, especially after what happened in last year’s cobblestone ride, where Vincenzo Nibali took a massive chunk of time over all of his rivals on the rough roads in France. Expect to see all sorts of attacks, expect to see a few crashes, and definitely expect to see a severely reduced peloton near the end of the day—at the same time, however, don’t be too surprised if this ends in a reduced sprint. The road is pretty flat from start to finish and the riders aren’t taking on the Arenberg Trench or the Carrefour de l’Arbre, which could allow things to stay compact at the front for those tough enough to survive the long day.

Alexander Kristoff, winner of the 2015 Tour of Flanders, is terrific on this sort of terrain. He showed in De Ronde this year that he is fully capable of winning a bike race by getting into a decisive move far from the finish line; he’s also an elite sprinter, one of the best in the race, and that combination makes him dangerous here. He proved his form with a stage win in the Tour de Suisse, and should be ready for action here in the Tour’s Stage 4. Watch out for teammate Luca Paolini as well.

John Degenkolb took a Roubaix victory this year in an impressive style of his own, also jumping into a small move late in the race and closing a sizeable gap to a lead group mostly of his own accord to take the win. Like Kristoff, he’s got proven ability as a Classics specialist, not just as a sprinter who can handle cobbles. I’m not as confident that the form is quite at the level it needs to be, but Degenkolb will be among the very top favorites for this stage.

Peter Sagan has already racked up one 2nd-place finish in this Tour after collecting quite a few last year. He’ll have another chance for a big result (for him, a win is obviously the most ideal result here) on Stage 4. Sagan very nearly pipped André Greipel in a pure sprint on Stage 2, suggesting that he’s on absolutely blazing form right now—the biggest question for the versatile Slovakian is whether or not he’ll have the freedom to get aggressive with the team’s main focus in this race being Alberto Contador’s GC chances. I think he’ll have some breathing room if the opportunities are there, but I don’t expect him to get involved in anything from too far out.

Greg Van Avermaet has yet to take a marquee Spring Classics victory but he’s always on point on the cobbles, and not bad in a fast finish either. Van Avermaet has looked very strong these past few weeks, and even finished 15th on the Mur de Huy on Stage 3 (ahead of names like Urán, Bardet, Barguil, Peraud, and many others). This is a great opportunity for a Tour victory for him, so expect to see some aggression late on in the stage.

Sep Vanmarcke doesn’t have quite the finishing kick that some of the other contenders here bring to the table, meaning that he’ll need to try to break clear on the rough terrain. If the weather is indeed bad, the opportunities will certainly be there. The form of the Belgian Classics specialist tends to quiet down every year after the spring, but with a great chance for a win in the sport’s biggest race, I think it’s fair to expect Vanmarcke to be in decent shape and hunting success here.

Lars Boom won last year’s crazy cobbled stage, and he delivered a few good results in the Classics with new team Astana this year. Expect another good performance on the cobbles of the Tour this year. Zdenek Stybar would probably prefer a tougher parcours but he’s a well-rounded rider who can make something happen on almost any terrain, and should fight with the top favorites for the win. Edvald Boasson Hagen has been in great shape lately and will be looking to collect some redemption after a Classics season marred by injury. Sylvain Chavanel also had a disappointing spring campaign but he’s also shown strong form at times this year and could thrive on Stage 4.

André Greipel flashed good form throughout the Classics this year and could surprise people in this stage—it’s flat enough that a flat finish could be in store. Bad weather could deter his chances though; he was great in the nasty conditions of Stage 3 on Monday but in his career he’s generally been less successful in the wet. Arnaud Demaré is another quick man with the ability to handle a few cobbles. Bryan Coquard and Sam Bennett could be up there as well, and don’t count out Mark Cavendish, who has won some big cobbled races in the past.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Alexander Kristoff | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 4. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 6, 2015
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015: Race Day Thoughts from John Degenkolb, Hugo Houle, and Tyler Farrar

VeloHuman chatted with some of the riders taking on the Tour of Flanders at the startline in Bruges to get some insider insight on the way the 2015 Ronde might play out.

John Degenkolb (Giant-Alpecin)

We finally have good weather today. Does that work in your favor?

I think it’s in my advantage and I like it when we don’t have super bad conditions. It’s good, I like it.

How does absence of Fabian Cancellara affect the way Giant-Alpecin will ride this race?

Fabian was always like an orientation point in the race, so it will not make it easier, for sure. For everybody, now we have to make our own race, and I’m actually pretty sad that he’s not here, and I hope he’s getting fine again.

Do you think you can beat Kristoff again if this comes down to a sprint?

I think so. That would be the perfect situation but we will see. It’s a hard race, it’s a long race, and it definitely won’t be a sprint like in Sanremo.

Hugo Houle (AG2R La Mondiale)

How do you see the race playing out scenario-wise?

Well for sure it’s going to be a small group, maybe one, two, four, a group of ten guys maximum at the end. I think it’s more open because Cancellara and Boonen are not there. So it’s going to be an interesting race, and it’s going to be funny to see who is going to take control, and maybe a group can go a long way from the finish and stay ahead because you don’t have one team controlling.

How’s the AG2R Morale heading into this race?

It’s pretty good team morale. I think we’re all motivated and will try to do our best. We’re not the big contender but that makes us stress-free and we’ll try to get a result that will be good for us.

Tyler Farrar (MTN-Qhubeka)

How is the team holding up with Edvald Boasson Hagen sidelined by a collarbone injury?

You never want to see one of your teammates get hurt so that’s never good. He was really our leader for the Ronde and for Paris-Roubaix next weekend. It’s definitely a blow to the team’s strategy but that’s sport and we just have to deal with it and come up with a Plan B.

What is Plan B?

Today I think Gerald [Ciolek] is going really well. The last few races he’s really been climbing strong. We hope he’ll make the final selections and be in a small group that sprints for a podium or even the victory.

What’s your role today?

We’ll see. I don’t think I’m going bad either so I’ll try to stay pretty quiet early on and hide a bit, and try to be the backup guy today. And if we don’t need a backup guy, I’ll see if I can lend him a hand in the final hour of the race.

We finally have decent weather! Thoughts?

Finally! It makes me a lot happier. It’s been a pretty rough Classics weather-wise and that really changes the dynamics of the race. When you get those horrible days like we had last week, it becomes more of an attrition thing. When you have this good weather, people tend to race a bit more aggressively in the finale, so the race tends to be a bit more explosive I think.

-Dane Cash

April 5, 2015
Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Preview

Geraint Thomas provided an exciting start to the WorldTour leg of Classics season with his bold move to win E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Now it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem.

The Route

A 240 kilometer trek through Flanders, starting in Deinze (outside of Ghent) and ending in Wevelgem, the race has a flat enough finale that things are often decided in a sprint. However, cobbled climbs along the way often make things a bit more interesting, whittling the peloton down to the tougher riders in the crowd or helping to launch the more aggressive types to victory from afar. There are nine officially recognized climbs on the profile (several of those are repeat ascents of the same uphill challenge). They are all crested after the 110 kilometer mark and before the 200 kilometer mark—the first 100 km and the final 30 are relatively flat.

The short but steep Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg trio of climbs, a few kilometers southwest of Ieper, are done twice, and the conclusion of that second run-through also marks the end of the hellingen in Gent-Wevelgem. The difficult cobbles of the Kemmelberg, in particular, could be a battleground in this race, especially with the help of a common visitor to the event that seems scheduled to make another appearance in 2015: bad weather. As of Saturday, rain and very strong winds are both set to join the peloton for Gent-Wevelgem. Even with a less topographically challenging final 30 kilometers, the combination of tough cobbled climbs (and the often hairy descents that follow) in the middle of the day and likely difficult conditions throughout will surely do their damage.

The Contenders

The dearth of long climbs on the profile, especially close to the finish line, makes this a major target for the top sprinter’s in the peloton, but the bergs, the cobbles, the race distance, and the Flanders conditions will make the tougher quick men the top favorites for victory in this race, though a few of the more aggressive Classics specialists will certainly have a chance at taking this win for themselves.

Alexander Kristoff is at home in terrible conditions, comfortable on the cobbles, capable of a little climbing, and usually fresher than most after a very long day. He also happens to pack a powerful sprint. Though probably just a hair behind the likes of Marcel Kittel in terms of pure speed, here in the Classics, Kristoff’s makes up for the just slightly lower velocity with pure grit. There is no guarantee that this race ends in a sprint, but if it does, it’s hard to look past Kristoff’s abilities. He’s likely to hold on longer than most even if a high pace over the cobbled climbs starts dropping other sprinters, and if he’s there at the end of the day, few can match him in speed.

If he’s there as well, however, 2014 John Degenkolb will give Kristoff a run for his money. Already victorious over Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo, Degenkolb seems to get better and better every year both in the versatility department and in the top speed department. He’s a proven rider here in Gent-Wevelgem and on Flanders terrain in general. He might prefer a few more uphill challenges (his climbing legs are better than most) to maybe make things more selective but even if this race is contested in a large bunch sprint at the end of the day, Degenkolb will be a strong contender to repeat.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have the same sort of versatility as some of the more Classics-oriented quick men here, but he is probably the fastest in a battle of pure speed. It won’t be easy making it to the line in the lead group, especially given the weather forecast, but if Cavendish can do it, he’ll have a great chance here—EQS teammate Matteo Trentin (3rd in E3) will be a strong second option in the sprints. Lotto Soudal’s André Greipel, who often rivals Cav in the pure sprints in stage races, and who has come close here in the past, is another very fast rider who will hope to hold on for a sprint at the end of a long day.

2014 runner-up Arnaud Démare has not had as much success early this season as he would have liked, but he is a big talent on this sort of parcours and motivated to prove himself as FDJ’s sole top name in the sprints this season. The rider he edged out for 2nd last year, Peter Sagan, will have an interesting choice to make this year: will he try to hold on for a sprint and test his luck against a pack of other fast finishers (as he did unsuccessfully in 2014) or will he launch a late attack and try to catch them all by surprise (as he did successfully in 2013, when he won the race)? The smart choice would seem to be to try to get away in a smaller group here, as he has not had much success in the bunch sprint lately. Either way, multi-talented Sagan is a threat in any scenario.

Giacomo Nizzolo has never finished this race, but given his skillset, he’ll be in with a chance. He’s a powerful sprinter, with a recent win at the GP Nobili, who doesn’t mind a long day. Unfortunately for Nizzolo, he crashed out of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and his current level of readiness to face the difficult Belgian roads again in a major race is unclear.

Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Jens Debusschere, and JJ Lobato are other quick men who will have a chance if it all comes down to a sprint.

Several familiar names seem the most likely protagonists to shake up the race with a late attack. Sep Vanmarcke, on great form right now, 2nd here in 2010, and typically unfazed by bad weather, is a particularly dangerous rider right now. His continually improving sprinting ability makes his case even stronger. Pedal problems plagued slowed him at E3, but that should only make him hungrier for more racing these next few days.

Greg Van Avermaet may not have the sprinting chops of the top quick men here but he could still win in a reduced gallop, if he is feeling comfortable and still confident after a bad crash at E3 Harelbeke.

E3 Harelbeke winner Geraint Thomas is one of the sport’s most versatile riders, capable of soloing, climbing, and even sprinting at a high level. This parcours doesn’t suit him quite as well as E3’s did but there are still plenty of opportunities to attack here.

The powerful EQS trio of Zdenek Stybar, Stijn Vandenbergh, and Niki Terpstra, MTN-Qhubeka’s new acquisition Edvald Boasson Hagen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Boom, and Jurgen Roelandts are others with a chance of winning solo or from a small group.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, André Greipel, Matteo Trentin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis.

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 6: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on both of the weekend’s WorldTour one-day events in a double pre-race show of E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem.
[powerpress]

Sharing a weekend, many of the same riders, and similar Belgian terrain, E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem make for a great pair of races. VeloHuman and Cyclocosm explore the routes, the startlists, and the narratives, with a bit of help from AG2R-La Mondiale’s Hugo Houle.

Photo by shirokazan.

March 26, 2015
Milano-Sanremo 2015 Preview

Milano-Sanremo, the first one-day race on the 2015 WorldTour and also the first “Monument Classic” of the season, has almost arrived! The grueling event, which will take riders from Italy’s Lombardy region to its Ligurian coast this Sunday, combines an overlong race distance with a few topographic features along the way, and often a sizeable dose of unpleasant weather. Even in a sport that prizes toughness, Milano-Sanremo demands grit and endurance on another level, which is why a big reason why its list of winners includes some of cycling most legendary hard men (one of the many topics discussed in the Recon Ride pre-race show, which you should also check out).

The Route

Though Milano-Sanremo has undergone a number of route changes in the past few years, the 293-kilometer route of the 2015 edition is similar to that of the 2014 edition (lacking a few of the climbs often planned for this race), with some alterations in the final kilometers. The peloton will set out from Milan and enjoy mostly flat roads for over a hundred kilometers. The pavement angles upward for the long, low-gradient climb of the Passo del Turchino a bit before the midway point, and that ascent is followed by a fast descent towards the coast.

293 kilometers in total, the Milano-Sanremo parcours becomes more and more difficult near the finish line.

From there, it’s still over a hundred kilometers along the Mediterranean in the direction of San Remo. Things stay flat for a while, but around kilometer 240, the peloton will start to hit a few small bumps, leading into a pair of more difficult late climbs likely to break up the peloton before the finish. First comes the Cipressa, 5.6 kilometers at a 4.1% average gradient. The riders will reach the top with a little over 20 km to go, take on a fast descent, and then speed over flat roads until they hit the foot of the Poggio climb. 3.7 kilometers at 3.7%, the Poggio does have a few steep sections (one stretch of 8%), and its otherwise unimposing gradient is of course made much more intimidating by the fact that the riders won’t reach the climb until they’ve already ridden 280 kilometers. The top of the Poggio is 5.5 kilometers from the finish, and followed by a fast descent that doesn’t even out until there are only 2.3 kilometers to go. From there, it’s a flat run towards the finishing straight on the Via Roma, a classic conclusion to Milano-Sanremo that has returned after many years of being left out of the route. With the reintroduction of the Via Roma, the finish line in this year’s race is almost a kilometer closer to the bottom of the Poggio than it was last year.

As of the day before the race, the weather forecast calls for some rain, though at the moment it seems the peloton may escape the torrential downpours common in the area this time of year.

The Contenders

Given the parcours, the likeliest outcome for Milano-Sanremo 2015 would appear to be a sprint showdown among the more versatile quick men of the peloton. The late climbs will give the opportunists a chance to try to get up the road and stay clear for the victory, and a few riders stand out as particularly likely protagonists in that scenario, but it won’t be easy to hold of the charging pack on these relatively low gradients. On the other hand, there are a few pure sprinters who might be favorites in any other high-speed finale but who might struggle here after such a long day.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is the defending champion, the victor of the 2014 edition in a bunch sprint that saw him well ahead of several very speedy finishers. Kristoff’s ability to survive the grueling distance without losing too much of his kick was crucial to his win over the other sprinters last year, and it remains a strong reason to expect big things from him again this year. Kristoff also has the experienced Luca Paolini to help him navigate the day’s difficulties. He has been in excellent form all season, winning sprints in several stage races, and that only makes him appear a stronger candidate here. The one question mark for Kristoff is whether he’ll be close enough to the front of the race as the Via Roma approaches. The reduced distance between the bottom of the Poggio descent and the finish line will give Kristoff less time to regain ground if he loses position on the last climb. Kristoff is not a bad climber, for a sprinter, but there are other quick men who can go uphill more comfortably, and they look to be Kristoff’s biggest challengers should this come down to a sprint.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan has been close to success in this race before, but he has come up short at the line. Gerald Ciolek (surprisingly) denied him of a victory in a reduced sprint in 2013, and although he came to the line with the main pack in 2014, he was a nonfactor in the sprint. The altered finish may benefit Sagan, whose climbing legs set him apart from the other quick men. More so than most, he is capable of launching a late attack on the Poggio, or at least holding the wheel of someone who does. If some of top sprinters in the peloton have faded by the time the finish nears, Sagan will be in a prime position to pick up his first Monument win.

Another sprinter with capable climbing legs making the start is Giant-Alpecin’s John Degenkolb. His 2014 MSR campaign was ruined by a late puncture, but soon after, he took 2nd in Paris-Roubaix, proving that distance is not a problem for him. He has continually improved in the top speed department over the last few years, and even against the biggest-name sprinters in the world he can hold his own; when a long day and a late climb enter the equation, Degenkolb becomes even more dangerous. He hasn’t quite had the results he would have hoped for coming into the race, racking up a number of 2nd-places to go with one win early in the season in Dubai, but if he is timing his peak right around now, Degenkolb will be a great candidate for victory.

Movistar’s Juan José Lobato sports an excellent combination of climbing legs and sprinting prowess, and he has used that skillset to pick up several wins already this season (denying Degenkolb on multiple occasions). He will hope to build on his 4th-place here last year, and with the form he has shown so far in 2015, that seems like a real possibility. Should Movistar feel that Lobato’s bid is in doubt near the end of the day, the team could try to send Alejandro Valverde up the road on one of the two late climbs.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge has a similarly fine-tuned skillset combining climbing legs and a vicious finishing kick. His Paris-Nice victory suggests that the form is there as well. For Matthews, the main question mark is whether he can handle the distance. He doesn’t really have any results to speak of in overlong races. He could certainly change that at this year’s Milano-Sanremo, but it will be a foray into new territory.

Mark Cavendish headlines a collection of elite pure sprinters in attendance who will hope that their explosiveness is not too diminished by the time the peloton reaches the finish in San Remo. Cavendish has of course won this race in the past (in 2009) but it was a much younger Mark Cavendish taking the victory then. On last year’s parcours, similar to this year’s, Cavendish was with the main pack at the end of the day, but was unable to come away with more than a Top 5 after the long journey from Milan. With the Via Roma finish coming closer to the bottom of the Poggio, Cavendish will have to work even harder to maintain a strong position and his energy in the finale, making his candidacy as a top favorite questionable despite his legitimate claim to the title of fastest field sprinter on the startlist. Etixx-Quickstep does have alternatives on the roster in Michal Kwiatkowski and Zdenek Stybar, both on blazing form and capable of putting in a strong attack on a late climb in a one-day race.

Like Mark Cavendish, André Greipel is another powerful pure sprinter hoping to survive the long day with his strong kick intact. Coming off a sprint stage win at Paris-Nice, Greipel clearly has the sprinting form to contend in a bunch gallop, and in fact, he has made it a stated goal of this season to finally pick up a big one-day victory after years of near misses. If his pursuit of such a target has led him to improve his power and endurance, he will be a real contender here. Lotto-Soudal may look to Tony Gallopin as a second card to play near the finale.

The very long list of other quick men with a chance in a potential sprint, all of them with varying levels of versatility, includes Cofidis’s Nacer Bouhanni, the MTN-Qhubeka duo of Gerald Ciolek and Edvald Boasson Hagen, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, Sky’s Ben Swift (3rd last year, though entering the race with uncertain form this year), Cannondale-Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, Lampre-Merida’s duo of Niccolo Bonifazio and Davide Cimolai, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, and Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett.

Fabian Cancellara headlines the list of riders who could be looking to jump clear of the peloton in the final few kilometers. This parcours, without some of the uphill challenges of past editions, will make it very difficult for anyone to get away from the pack, but if anyone can do it, Fabian Cancellara is a prime pick. His time trial victory in Tirreno-Adriatico suggests that he is in formidable soloing shape at the moment, and he has done a great deal to work on his sprint this year should he come to the line with a small group. Cancellara was a surprising 2nd in last year’s bunch sprint, suggesting that he’s even a danger if he can’t shed the pack on the Poggio or the Cipressa. Having landed podium results each of the last four years, another strong placing seems practically guaranteed this year. Giacomo Nizzolo, fresh off a GP Nobili victory, offers Trek another option.

BMC’s duo of Philippe Gilbert and an on-form Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Sky’s Geraint Thomas and Ian Stannard, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, and Lampre-Merida’s Pippo Pozzato and Rui Costa are other riders to keep an eye on when the attacks start to fly around the Cipressa and the Poggio.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, JJ Lobato, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet, Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Michael Matthews

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis of the race, and don’t forget to listen to the Recon Ride pre-race show for plenty more on the year’s first Monument. Check back soon for previews and roadside coverage of the upcoming Volta a Catalunya!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Martin Mystère.

March 21, 2015