Stage 12: Escaldes-Engordany › Lleida – 173km
After a brutal day in the mountains, the Vuelta will show mercy to the peloton with a less vicious Stage 12.
The first 35km of the stage are downhill. Then comes the only categorized climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Coll de Bóixols, 15.8km at a little over 5%. It’s not an easy climb but coming as early in the stage as it does, it probably won’t inflict too much damage on the bunch. From the top the stage is downhill or flat for almost the rest of the day. The final half-kilometer does angle upwards somewhat, but at a gradient of less than 4%.
The profile shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for the sprinters still in the peloton, and with so few opportunities for bunch finishes in this Vuelta, we can expect the sprinters’ teams to put in a lot of effort keeping the early breakaway on a tight leash. Plus, Stage 13 is a perfect stage for the breakaway, and that could see some of the top long-range protagonists keeping their powder dry for a day.
In the likely sprint scenario, John Degenkolb is the clear favorite in terms of peak ability, and despite having not yet won a stage in the Vuelta a España, he does look pretty good in the form department, if not at 100%. He nearly won Stage 10 despite having horrible positioning in the final 500 meters, and now that Giant-Alpecin will be less focused on Tom Dumoulin (who no longer holds the red jersey), Degenkolb should get a better leadout for the sprint. Barring a crash, it’s hard to see anyone beating Degenkolb here.
Kristian Sbaragli will certainly try, and will come into this stage bolstered by the fact that he’s already bested Degenkolb once in the race. It would be a pretty big surprise if he can double up, as Degenkolb is significantly quicker in a headsup battle, and there are others who can probably match Sbaragli as well if they can position themselves a bit better this time around.
One of those riders is José Joaquín Rojas. He couldn’t best Sbaragli on Stage 10, but the Italian veered in his direction in the finale of that sprint, making it much harder for the Spaniard to come around—so I’m not sure how great of a marker that performance was. I expect Rojas to place very highly here, and the slight gradient at the finish should suit him.
Tosh Van der Sande has looked strong so far in the race, and managed to come in 4th on Stage 10 after opening his sprint far too early. He could challenge again here. Jean-Pierre Drucker should be in the mix as well.
Danny Van Poppel is lacking in the versatility department and has not featured yet in the sprints at the Vuelta, but he should be able to hang on to contest the sprint here, and will have a nice shot at a stage win against this field.
José Goncalvez, Carlos Barbero, Maximiliano Richeze, Daniele Bennati are others with a chance at Stage 12 success.
VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Kristian Sbaragli | 3. José Joaquín Rojas
Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 12.