Tag: La Fleche Wallonne

La Flèche Wallonne 2016 Preview

“Ardennes Week” is in full swing. The peloton took on the Cauberg this past weekend, which can only mean it’s time for the Mur de Huy this Wednesday…

The Route

La Flèche Wallonne is surprisingly short, particularly this year, at just 196 kilometers.

There are officially 12 climbs on the menu, starting at kilometer 67 and running all the way to the finish. The first 11 will serve to wear away at the legs of the peloton, particularly the 1.3km, 8.1% Côte de Cherave, but this race is almost always decided on the final climb, the Mur de Huy.

A winding 1.3km at 9.3%, the Mur is a brutal challenge that punishes those who don’t time their jump perfectly. Experience matters on the steep slopes of the climb, which maxes out at over 25% for one small section. Things do flatten out near the finish line, meaning that the pure climbers will want to go a little earlier than those with a bit of a sprint.

The Contenders

Alejandro Valverde makes the start in pursuit of a record fourth career win at La Flèche Wallonne, and he looks like a strong candidate to pull it off. For one, the race and the final climb in particular suit him perfectly. These sorts of climbs have been Valverde’s bread and butter for years. He looks strong this season too. Meanwhile, some of the other names that come to mind for this race have yet to really show off any stellar form, making Valverde that much stronger a race favorite. Movistar also has Daniel Moreno, a former winner himself, as another card to play, and Carlos Betancur could be up there as well.

Joaquím Rodríguez probably should have won this race more than just the once, but he’s always a dangerous contender on this sort of finishing climb. It’s hard to say what kind of shape he’s in, but he’ll almost certainly be in the mix.

Form is a question mark after he pulled out of País Vasco, but rarely is Dan Martin not in shape to contest this event, one of his favorites. He has always done well here. Etixx-QuickStep also has Julian Alaphilippe, runner-up just last year. If anyone can challenge Movistar’s top-to-bottom strength, it’s the Irish-French duo leading the Belgian supersquad.

Speaking of former runners-up, don’t overlook Sergio Henao. He has been flying all season and should be able to fight with the very best on the Mur. Sky has a nice support squad to put him into position, and he has an underrated kick on this sort of finish.

Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge is always one to watch at La Flèche Wallonne—he’s never won, but he’s almost always in the mix. Lotto-Soudal has several options with Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin, and Jelle Vanendert. Look to one of the three (probably Wellens) to try something long-range. Philippe Gilbert looked out of shape at Amstel and is probably beyond the point of being considered a favorite here, but he did win the race once upon a time and so can’t be counted out. BMC teammate Samuel Sánchez may be more of a threat.

Amstel Gold Race winner Enrico Gasparotto, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Michael Woods, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Warren Barguil, Wilco Kelderman, and Roman Kreuziger are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Sergio Henao, Joaquím Rodríguez
Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Michael Albasini, Daniel Moreno, Rui Costa, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Tim Wellens

Photo by Stacy Clinton (CC).

April 20, 2016
La Flèche Wallonne 2015 Preview

After the opening act of the Amstel Gold Race, the hilly Classics specialists head to Belgium for La Flèche Wallonne. A rare midweek WorldTour one-day event, it’s more than just a warmup for Liège-Bastogne-Liège: the “Walloon Arrow” is a major prize for the explosive climbers, and they’re here in droves for the 2015 edition.

The Route

The shortest of the Ardennes week trio, La Flèche Wallonne is only 205.5 km in total. Its 11 classified climbs range from 1 kilometer to 2.9 kilometers in length and 4.8% to 9.6% in average gradients—these are all short climbs, but most are at least somewhat steep, and some are downright brutal. The final two climbs in particular are quite demanding from a vertical standpoint.

The organizers added the Côte de Cherave to the route this year as the penultimate uphill challenge. 1.3 kilometers at 8.1%, it could be a nice launching pad with only about 5 km to go. But the real test will be the final climb, the Mur de Huy. The peloton will actually crest the iconic Wall of Huy three times in this race, but the last will be the most important, because the finish line is at the top of the climb. 1.3 km at 9.6%, it’s a vicious ascent that has no mercy for those without pure climbing ability. The winding slopes of the Mur deaden any momentum the riders bring with them into the ascent, forcing would-be winners to rely on raw uphill strength for almost the entirety of the way up (though things flatten out a bit at the very top). Coming at the end of a day full of climbs, it’s even more of a challenge.

Knowing that the Mur is coming, riders tend to try to keep a lot of energy in reserve in this race. That being the case, even with a new and difficult climb added so close to the line, it seems likely that many of the favorites will still plan to wait until the slopes of the Mur de Huy to launch their bids for glory. It’s possible that someone slips away before the pack reaches the the final climb, but it seems more probable that, as in years past, the Mur will remain the battleground on which La Flèche Wallonne is decided.

The Contenders

Neither Amstel nor Liège end on an uphill, and they are therefore open to victory bids from those with strong sprints or powerful soloing engines. But a race that ends on the Mur de Huy is almost guaranteed to go a rider with an elite uphill kick. Alejandro Valverde certainly fits the bill, which is probably why he’s won the race twice, including last year. He’s among the two or three most explosive uphill chargers in cycling, and his three-win Catalunya performance and runner-up ride at Amstel prove his great form right now. He’s got a great chance of doubling up here this year. He may be able to rely on Nairo Quintana to try something late in the day to put the pressure on Movistar’s rivals as well.

Right up there in the discussion of most explosive climber in cycling is Katusha’s Joaquim Rodríguez, also a past winner here. Purito isn’t quite as strong as Valverde in a flat finish, but I rate his upward kick (when he’s at his best) ever so slightly above Valverde’s—and I think he’s currently quite close to his best. Rodríguez did not factor much in Amstel, but that parcours isn’t really his style; La Flèche Wallonne, on the other hand, suits him perfectly. Purito showed incredible form in the Basque Country and one would imagine he’s carried it into the Ardennes. Katusha must be excited to make the start here, having what is clearly the best team in the race. Daniel Moreno won here in 2013, and Giampaolo Caruo, who seems to get better every year despite being well over 30, has consistently been a factor in the hilly one-day events these past few seasons. Tiago Machado is no slouch either. With so many options, Katusha is likely to launch one uphill assault after another, and that will make them very difficult to counter.

Dan Martin has come close to victory here in the past, and seems destined to win at some point in his career given his excellent skillset for the Mur de Huy. Runner-up in 2014, he’s got a great uphill kick and an aggressive streak to match. He has improved tactically since his 4th place in 2013 that might have been a win if he hadn’t started the Mur so out of position. It seems likely that he’ll again be among those fighting for the win this year. Cannondale can send Tom-Jelte Slagter on the offensive as well.

Chris Froome will likely get plenty of media attention coming into this race, but it’s his teammate Sergio Henao that Sky’s rivals will really be watching. He sat out the 2014 edition but was 2nd to Daniel Moreno in 2013, and a recent 2nd-place in Pais Vasco shows his excellent form. With Froome and Nicolas Roche and Wout Poels as alternatives or support options, Sky can be aggressive in this race.

Amstel Gold Race winner Michal Kwiatkowski was 3rd here in 2014. He launched his attack relatively early in that edition and looked good into the final few hundred meters before being passed by Dan Martin and Alejandro Valverde. This pure climber’s finale doesn’t suit him as well as Amstel or Liège, simply because he just doesn’t quite have the uphill ability that Purito and some of the other top contenders here have, but he’s a better soloist and a better sprinter than practically anyone else with a chance in this race. That means that he could try something a bit long distance, or alternatively, try to hold the right wheel all the way to top of the Mur where things flatten out, and in either scenario, he’ll have a chance.

Rui Costa looked good at Amstel and is constantly underrated as a climber (and as a time trialist, and as a sprinter for that matter). With Diego Ulissi as a fine second, Lampre can probably make something happen here. Trek has the excellent 1-2 punch of Bauke Mollema and Julián Arredondo—Arredondo has the perfect skillset for La Flèche Wallonne but hasn’t shown much lately. If he’s got some form hidden away he’ll be in the mix. AG2R’s Carlos Betancur also has an excellent skillset for La Flèche Wallonne; at his best, few would be able to match him in this race. He has done almost nothing from a results standpoint in over a year, but he didn’t look too bad at Amstel and will be worth watching here. Lotto Soudals’s Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens could get involved. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali and Jakob Fuglsang, both clearly hungry for one-day success, will almost certainly try to be aggressive as the day nears its conclusion. Philippe Gilbert has won here in the past and will probably be up there again, but a podium performance at this stage in his career seems highly unlikely—he is not climbing like he used to. Samuel Sanchez could be a nice alternative option for BMC. OGE’s Simon Yates and Michael Albasini, LottoNL’s Wilco Kelderman, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka and Roman Kreuziger are others who could get involved.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Joaquim Rodriguez
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin
Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Sergio Henao, Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno, Philippe Gilbert, Simon Yates, Vincenzo Nibali

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more live analysis during the race.

Photo by umelog (CC).

April 21, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 9: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride presents a double helping of pre-race analysis for the Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne.

[powerpress]

The peloton heads for the hills to take on the Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne, the first two races in a trio of springtime one-day WorldTour events for the punchier types, and the Recon Ride is covering the talking points with a double pre-race show.

Photo by Johan Wieland.

April 17, 2015
Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege Post-race Impressions: Ardennes Week in Review

Three Ardennes week contests, three different winners, all of them among the biggest names in the one-day racing—Philippe Gilbert, Alejandro Valverde, and Simon Gerrans are all past Monument Classic winners, so it doesn’t get much bigger than that. Gilbert’s return to form was the big story of the beginning of the week: his win at Brabantse Pijl suggested that he had recovered some of his 2011 abilities, but he confirmed his rediscovery with a resounding victory over the Cauberg at the Amstel Gold Race. The recently revamped parcours looked like it might favor a final sprint, but Gilbert was just too hard to chase down on his beloved terrain. An aggressive Jelle Vanendert was a fine 2nd, and then Gerrans outsprinted Valverde and Kwiatkowski for 3rd in a surprising preview of the Liege-Bastogne-Liege showdown. Joaquim Rodriguez was an unfortunate casualty of Amstel, going down hard in an early crash.

Wednesday’s La Fleche Wallonne ended as it so often does in a climactic uphill sprint. Alejandro Valverde finally came good on months and months (stretching back to 2012) of elite form without a WorldTour victory. Daniel Martin roared back into relevance, nabbing 2nd place. And Michal Kwiatkowski, in 3rd, continued to display the sort of ability that suggests dominance in these sorts of races is not far away.

The grand finale in Liege came down to the final 5 km (just like Amstel and La Fleche Wallonne had); attacks from bigger favorites were quickly reeled in all day, but Giampaolo Caruso and Domenico Pozzovivo jumped ahead as the finish line approached and the chase to bring them back last until the closing moments. Dan Martin looked poised to bridge and possibly pass them just 300 meters from the finish, but he hit the dock rounding the last corner in a heartbreaking stroke of misfortune. Simon Gerrans, Alejandro Valverde, and Michal Kwiatkowski sailed past Martin and then the men up the road, and it was a sprint for victory, with Gerrans taking the win and his second career Monument after Milano-Sanremo. Valverde was 2nd. Kwiatkowski landed on another major podium in 3rd, but going wide around a crashed Dan Martin forced him to play catchup with Gerrans and Valverde at the very end, so I wonder what might have been for him as well.

Takeaways from the Ardennes Classics

There were plenty of surprise performances in the Ardennes Classics, but at the very top were names we’ve seen so often in the past, with a lot of similarity between the three races as well. All three basically came down to the last five minutes. All three were won by big-name one-day stars, over the age of thirty. The podium of the finale race, Liege, was made up of riders who had already stood on an Ardennes podium earlier in the week.

I suppose the results speak for themselves for race winners Gilbert, Valverde, and Gerrans. Valverde, especially, was on his game all week; interestingly, he won the race I would have imagined favored him the least. He has stayed in top-shelf shape for a long while this season, and now he’ll get some well-deserved time off to prep for the Tour de France. 4th, 1st, and 2nd across three Ardennes races is quite a haul for the 34-year-old.

Philippe Gilbert took a proud Amstel victory to put himself back among the favorites in these races but did fade a bit in La Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Still, winning Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold and notching Top 10s in La Fleche Wallonne and LBL are very worthy results, and they suggest that Gilbert has regained both form and confidence after a rocky period. He’s been around the sport for a while, but at age 31 he still has a lot of racing left in his career, and it’s good to see him righting a downward trend.

Simon Gerrans might have come up with a winning strategy for Liege after showing his form with 3rd place at Amstel: he skipped La Fleche Wallonne and recharged his batteries, and was the strongest in the sprint to the Monumental finish. It’s really been an amazing string of years for the Australian rider who started his career as more of a rouleur than anything. He completed the impressive achievement of nabbing stage wins in all three Grand Tours earlier in his career as a breakaway specialist, but he has developed into one of the premier punchy fast finishers in the sport. Since 2012, he has won two Monuments, two Tours Down Under, and two National Championships in Australia, in addition to a host of other victories and some time in the yellow jersey at the Tour de France. He does not appear to be slowing down even as he approaches 34.

In my opinion, Joaquim Rodriguez was the biggest loser of the Ardennes Classics, showing such excellent form at Catalunya only to fall victim to an unfortunate crash-caused injury at Amstel Gold. He had been focused so hard on Liege this year; it’s a big shame he was unable to contest that race. Hopefully, recovers quickly for his other big goal of the season, the Giro d’Italia. Teammate Daniel Moreno was unable to pick up the slack by repeating last year’s success; by most standards he had a decent Ardennes campaign as one of the few riders to be in the Top 10 of all three races, but three consecutive 9th place finishes are a disappointment for last years winner atop the Mur de Huy. Like Purito, Carlos Betancur was on fire early this season and looking set for big things in these races, for which he is so perfectly built, only to be laid low by injury. AG2R did not adjust well in Amstel Gold or La Fleche Wallonne, unable to pick up results there worthy of the year they are having, but they did make up for it somewhat by placing two riders in the Top 10 at Liege. Romain Bardet continued a strong 2014 with a 10th place, looking like a great bet for the future. Domenico Pozzovivo flew in from his 2nd overall at the Giro Del Trentino to pick up 5th on the day, quite a performance. He looks very strong for next month’s Giro d’Italia.

Daniel Martin‘s Ardennes week was quite a roller coast ride, and it ended on a cruel, sour note. He abandoned Amstel with knee issues, raising concerns about his health for the next few races, exploded up the Mur for 2nd at La Fleche Wallonne, quelling concerns about his health, and then just when it seemed he might be in for continued success at Liege, he went down hard in the last seconds of the contest. At least in terms of looking ahead, he does appaer to be very strong for the upcoming Giro d’Italia, but it’s hard to think of anything more demoralizing than what happened to Martin as the race came to a close today. Teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter was a bit of a happier note for Garmin; the 24-year old was 5th at La Fleche Wallonne and 6th at LBL, which is pretty darn impressive, especially given the starpower at the top. He’s been showing the sort of skillset that does well in these races, but until this week, he hadn’t confirmed that promise with results. In Martin (only 27) and Slagter, Garmin will likely feature pretty prominently in the Ardennes Classics for many years to come.

Michal Kwiatkowski was 5th, 3rd, and 3rd, second to only Valverde in consistent top performances across the week. On the one hand, two podiums (including one in a Monument) are pretty unbelievable for the 23 year old, and a confirmation of the amazing talent he has shown so early in his career. On the other hand, I don’t think anyone who has been following the sport closely really needs further confirmation of his talents, and he’s probably a bit frustrated to have come so close so many times (after being 2nd in Pais Vasco). He will take a break from racing before the Tour. Hopefully it will give him time to recharge and be at his best for the sport’s biggest show.

I can’t say I saw Jelle Vanendert‘s strong week coming. Tony Gallopin appeared to be the better option for Lotto leading up to the race after Vanendert’s relatively anonymous 2013, but 2nd at Amstel (ahead of Ardennes winners Valverde and Gerrans) and 6th at La Fleche Wallonne were great results for the Belgian. He’s really an Ardennes specialist, but hopefully we will see him with continued form in more 2o14 races with rolling terrain.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was unable to come up with a Top 10 at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but he delivered his best Amstel and La Fleche Wallonne to date. The 27 year old has rallied wonderfully after a slow start to the season, and his reassuring performances come at a time of great uncertainty for a team that has lost Robert Gesink indefinitely due to a heart health issue.

I found Vincenzo Nibali‘s Ardennes campaign to be very underwhelming. He did not feature prominently in any of the three races. After a fairly anonymous first two contests, I figured he might be saving up for Liege, but he was unable to hold on when things started splitting up at the finish. I think he really wants to win that big one-day race soon, but the Tour de France is probably a bigger target for the 2013 Giro d’Italia winner at the moment. Rui Costa crashed out of LBL after missing out in Amstel and LFW. The World Champ will be very disappointed—he started the season hot at Paris-Nice but he hasn’t managed to deliver results in the past few weeks. He’ll look to the Tour de Romandie as his next target, and with Chris Froome something of a question mark with a chest infection, things could open up for the opportunist rainbow jersey wearer.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo continued to show nice form in 2014: he just barely missed the top 10, coming in 11th, at La Fleche Wallonne, and though he was ultimately unable to make anything happen. he was very active off the front at LBL. At a time when their big name climbers (the Schlecks) are really struggling, Trek must be pleased to have struck gold in young Arredondo. Another youngster who looked sharp was Cofidis’s Rudy Molard, among the top 20 in both La Fleche Wallonne and LBL. Results like that without much team support make him a name to remember in the future.

Share your own thoughts in the comments, or give me a holler on Twitter @VeloHuman! Also keep an eye out early Monday for the Tour de Romandie preview! It should be a great race. Lastly, the Giro d’Italia is right around the corner, and as usual there will be a big overall preview as well as previews of each individual stage, so make sure you tune back in to VeloHuman!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Ed W.

April 27, 2014
La Fleche Wallonne 2014 Preview

The first of three Ardennes Classics went to former World Champ Philippe Gilbert on Sunday after he put the hammer down on his favorite hunting ground, the Cauberg. His uphill strike was so powerful that not even the likes of Alejandro Valverde or Michal Kwiatkowski could reel him in over the final flat 1.8 kilometers of the Amstel Gold Race. Jelle Vanendert made a valiant move past a chasing group for 2nd, and Simon Gerrans outsprinted Valverde and Kwiatkowski for 3rd. A possible bunch sprint was nullified by the power of the big favorites up front: the pack could not survive the impressive climbing skills of Gilbert and Co. on the Cauberg. Anyone who struggled on the Cauberg will have an even harder time on Wednesday, as the peloton takes on the mighty Mur de Huy at La Flèche Wallonne (which I am generally styling as La Fleche Wallonne because accented vowels and easy-to-write, searchable internet text are not great friends).

At 199 kilometers, La Fleche Wallonne is shorter than some of the other classics the peloton has taken on this season. That opens it up a bit to riders who don’t specialize as heavily in the overlong spring races. Still, the route is peppered with grueling ascents in rapid succession, including two trips up the Mur de Huy (1.3 km, 9.3% average grade) before the third and final ascent at the end the race. The group that makes it to the bottom of the final climb will be very much reduced by the day’s many challenges. Unlike the Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne has no 1.8 kilometer drag after its decisive climb. The Mur is also steeper than the Cauberg. This is a race that goes to explosive climbers, period. Last year’s Top 10 was a who’s who of ascending heavyweights (figuratively, as all of them are, of course, quite light of frame). Daniel Moreno was strongest on the day, with Sergio Henao, Carlos Betancur, and Daniel Martin hot on his heels. Purito, Valverde, and Mollema weren’t far behind. La Fleche Wallonne 2013 was decided in the final moments on the climb to the top of the Mur, and it’s hard to see a different script for 2014, though there will be some other riders playing the roles this time around. Before I name my top names, a note: as usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of analysis live during the contest, so be sure to follow @VeloHuman for more real-time thoughts on the race!

The Contenders

Philippe Gilbert won the race in 2011 and podiumed in 2012. He seemed to have lost a bit of a form for 2013, but his victories at Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold this year have catapulted him back into the conversation. He played his cards just right at Amstel, exploding up the climb and then hanging on over a not insignificant distance. A crucial component in his victory was an attack from teammate Samuel Sanchez, who will join him again at La Fleche Wallonne, making BMC an even tougher opponent for the rest of the pack. Still, with such a brutal climb to close out the race, even Gilbert’s punchy legs will be put on the limit trying to hold off some Grand Tour talent. He will also no longer benefit from the hesitation that he’s gotten from his rivals in the past several month of reduced form; everyone knows Gilbert is back now.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is another past winner of the race, and he will certainly be among the favorites to contend for this year’s La Fleche Wallonne. The bookies’ favorite for Amstel Gold finished 4th on the day after being unable to follow Gilbert on the final climb, though I do wonder if a part of his failure to cover the Belgian’s attack was indecision and hesitation, as he, Simon Gerrans, and Michal Kwiatkowski did not react immediately to the move on the Cauberg. He’ll get a chance at revenge on Wednesday. Without the injury question marks of some of the other big contenders, I imagine Valverde will occupy at least one of the spots on the podium for this race. Mountain goat teammates like Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti make his bid for victory a formidable one.

Were it not for the aforementioned health issues confusing things, there are three riders I might favor among Gilbert and Valverde; unfortunately, each comes with unknowns. First and foremost is Joaquim Rodriguez. Katusha has dominated this race in the past two years: Purito won in 2012, and Daniel Moreno won in 2013. Both riders are perfectly suited to the finish on the Mur de Huy, and more than capable of making it there without too much trouble. However, Rodriguez crashed out of yesterday’s Amstel Gold and was immediately taken to the hospital for further examination. Reports indicate that he did not suffer any serious injury, but there was also talk that he was a bit dizzy after going down. None of this inspires confidence. It doesn’t help that he is really targeting Sunday’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and next month’s Giro, and will probably be willing to take La Fleche Wallonne easy if he thinks it’s necessary for recovery. Were it not for the question marks, Purito’s form this year and his skillset might have made him my overall favorite, but as it stands, it’s hard to put that kind of confidence in him. His teammate Moreno, winner last year, may be a better choice, with a similar skillset and a proven ability to win the race. Moreno was 9th in Amstel yesterday and 3rd behind Contador and Quintana in the summit finish fourth stage of Tirreno-Adriatico this year, so he’s looking strong to defend his title here in 2014.

2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner Daniel Martin is another would-be favorite with injury question marks. He pulled out of Amstel Gold early with knee pain. He has stated that he does not think it will be a lasting issue, but like Purito, Martin is targeting Liege and the Giro and he has a capable teammate (in Tom-Jelte Slagter) to take up the reigns if he decides to take it easy. Were his health not in question, La Fleche Wallonne’s finish would be ideal for the Irishman, who came in 4th last year (he missed a podium place by about half a centimeter), and probably would have done better had he not been somewhat out of position at the start of the final climb. Should Martin not be up for it, Garmin will turn turn to the hot hand in Slagter. He was disappointing at Amstel Gold, but the young rider might have a bit more left in the tank at the end of the shorter race on Wednesday. Ryder Hesjedal was not long ago one of the better Ardennes riders in the peloton and he’ll be in attendance as well.

AG2R’s Carlos Betancur is the other injury-bitten top rider in the race. He was 3rd here last year and he is on fire in 2014. Unfortunately, he’s also been suffering from a knee issue lately, and it’s very much unclear what his status is for La Fleche Wallonne. He did not contend at Amstel Gold, but he didn’t get dropped off the pace right away either. His tools (perfect for this race) and body of work put him among my top 10 riders in this race, as I think he’s quite capable of winning, but it’s hard to say whether he’ll be able to put all that ability to good use. Romain Bardet will be the other option for AG2R, and the way he’s been climbing this year, he could feature in the finale.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS was 5th in the race last year. Given his blazing form in 2014, I’d imagine we’ll see him in the vanguard on the Mur again this year, but the do-it-all 23-year-old might find the finish line just a bit too steep for his liking. As versatile as he is, he may be looking to Sunday’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege as a prize more suited to his talents. Still, anything is possible for Kwiatkowski. OPQS has another strong card to play in Wout Poels, who has been climbing very well this year and could take a crack at the final ascent himself. Jan Bakelants makes another strong supporter.

Lampre’s three-pronged attack was unable to make much of a mark on the Amstel Gold Race, but I think they’re better suited to La Fleche Wallonne: Diego Ulissi is a star on these finishes, and his biggest weakness so far in his career has been long days in the saddle. Significantly shorter than its Ardennes brethren, La Fleche Wallonne is perfect for Ulissi, and he is targeting this race heavily. He came to the base of the Cauberg with the pack at Amstel Gold, which suggests to me that he is in shape and primed for success in a race more tailored to his talents. Teammate and World Champ Rui Costa could also give things a go. The Mur might be a bit too steep for his liking, but victory in this race requires perfect timing and Costa has one of the sharpest minds for strategy in the entire peloton. Damiano Cunego has a pair of podium performances in La Fleche Wallonne on his resume, but even with his surprise 2014 form I’m not sure he can hang with the best in the bunch anymore, especially not after an anonymous showing in an Amstel Gold Race that suited him better.

I had questions about Bauke Mollema‘s form coming into Amstel Gold, but his 7th place in that race answered them for me. La Fleche Wallonne puts the spotlight more squarely on the GC climber types, and Mollema has the kind of climbing legs to contend for Grand Tours. He also has a very strong finish and a very aggressive approach, which are key in this race, and they’ve given him back-to-back Top 10s here in the past. I would put Mollema among the best value bets for a podium in this race, just a few steps outside the spotlight but very capable of contending. Talented climbers Lars Petter Nordhaug and Laurens Ten Dam make a fine support squad. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger was unable to defend his Amstel Gold title, but like Mollema, he is a Grand Tour climber with a strong finish. Though he did not feature among the contenders, he was among the Top 20 on Sunday, and the vicious Mur de Huy gives him another chance at victory. Teammate Nicolas Roche is building up to the Giro and could also make a move.

Astana again brings their talent-packed squad to the startline; Enrico Gasparotto was their best placed finisher at Amstel, coming in 8th, but Jakob Fuglsang looked strong in a breakaway and Vincenzo Nibali came to the base of the Cauberg with the pack. Nibali was 8th in La Fleche Wallonne in 2012 and he has the uphill ability to land another top result. Fuglsang isn’t well-known for explosiveness but he’s certainly got the climber’s physique. The Mur might be too much for Gasparotto and Iglinskiy but they’ll be valuable teammates as well.

Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert suddenly roared back into relevance with a runner-up performance at Amstel Gold, where he chased heavier favorites up the Cauberg and sailed past many of them on his way to 2nd place. He has a pair of La Fleche Wallonne top 10s to his name as well, so he certainly deserves a look for Wednesday’s race. Teammate Tony Gallopin is another good climber and one-day rider, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck nabbed the final spot in the top 10 in 2012.

Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge won’t be riding this race (the finish is a bit too steep for him), so they send punchy Ivan Santaromita, 2012 runner-up Michael Albasini, aggressive Pieter Weening and Simon Clark, and Simon and Adam Yates to represent their interests. No favorites among them, but plenty of riders to animate the race. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has had an impressive start to the season and will like the finish. Andy Schleck crashed out of Amstel Gold, but he should make the start with brother Frank, who has shown signs of life in 2014. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank is a good climber who will be riding for his own interests for once. Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin and Warren Barguil will hope to make an impact. Sky’s best bets are probably Mikel Nieve and David Lopez. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is still looking for success in 2014. Daniel Navarro of Cofidis is a strong climber with a decent supporting cast. They’ll all have their work cut out for them in a race with a finish that tends to weed out long shots, but a number of the contenders are facing injury concerns, which could open doors at La Fleche Wallonne 2014.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Philippe Gilbert
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Moreno
Other Top Contenders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema, Vincenzo Nibali, Michal Kwiatkowski, Carlos Betancur, Daniel Martin

Remember to follow @VeloHuman for more race-day thoughts, and come back soon for the Liege-Bastogne-Liege preview!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Max Mayorov.

April 21, 2014