Tag: Liege-Bastogne-Liege

Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2016 Preview

Sunday’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège caps off the 2016 Spring Classics season with a chance for the climbers to nab a big one-day victory. Plenty of big names will make start hoping to come away with a Monumental addition to their palmares in the 102nd edition of “La Doyenne.”

The Route

Liège-Bastogne-Liège takes the peloton 253km from Liège to Bastogne and then back to the general vicinity of Liège, with the finish line actually in the town of Ans. The parcours includes 10 climbs officially, though the race ends on a climb that will almost certainly be critical to the overall victory. The last two official climbs are likely to play a big role as well. Expect attacks to fly on the 1.2km Côte de Saint-Nicolas (8.6% average grade) and the new Côte de la Rue Naniot, a short climb at just 600 meters but steep enough to break things up at 10.5%.

The Contenders

Defending champion Alejandro Valverde is hunting down a fourth career win, and he certainly looks strong enough to pull it off after winning La Flèche Wallonne on Wednesday. His strong team should help keep the race under control so that he can dominate the finale with his strong finishing kick.

Etixx-QuickStep brings two of the top favorites to challenge Valverde. Dan Martin is a past winner, and he’s looking good after another Flèche Wallonne podium performance. Liège is a race that suits him very well, and the added climb will give him another chance to attack his rivals. And if Martin isn’t up for this, his teammate Julian Alaphilippe is a terrific second option, with a nice turn of speed.

Simon Gerrans‘s form is a bit of a question mark right now, but if he’s feeling strong he has a great chance to pick up a second career win here. He’s probably the fastest finisher among the top contenders for the victory.

Vincenzo Nibali finally took his first Monument win last year in Lombardy, and he could use the same combination of climbing and descending skills to make a run for the Liège win. A late attack seems practically guaranteed.

You could probably say the same about Tim Wellens. He almost always swings for the fences, and his attacking style has already earned him two Eneco Tour overall wins and the GP Montréal. He hasn’t been able to hit a home run in the Ardennes just yet, but he’s certainly got a shot. Lotto-Soudal also has Tony Gallopin and Jelle Vanendert.

Joaquím Rodríguez didn’t look to be at his best at La Flèche Wallonne but he’s almost always in the mix in this race and can’t be counted out. Neither can Rui Costa, who is made for this sort of profile. Enrico Gasparotto, Michal Kwiatkowski, Romain Bardet, Wout Poels, and Samuel Sánchez are others to keep an eye on.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Dan Martin, Vincenzo Nibali
Other Top Contenders: Julian Alaphilippe, Joaquím Rodríguez, Simon Gerrans, Tim Wellens, Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowski, Enrico Gasparotto

Photo by Jean Housen (CC).

April 24, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2016

Episode 40: Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2016 Pre-race Show

The Recon Ride dives into the route and the favorites for the final big race of the 2016 Spring Classics season – and the fourth Monument of the year – Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

[powerpress]

“La Doyenne,” the Old Lady of spring classics, brings Ardennes Week to a conclusion this Sunday. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano preview Liège-Bastogne-Liège, one of the most climber-friendly one-day races on the calendar.

Photo by Jean Housen (CC).

April 22, 2016
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2015 Preview

What better way to close out the Classics season than with the legendary Liège-Bastogne-Liège? The oldest Classic, Liège lives up to its status as a historic (said history covered in more detail in the most recent Recon Ride Podcast) springtime cycling icon with a challenging route that caters to aggressive types with strong climbing legs, and recent editions have offered no shortage of thrills. With most of the familiar veteran contenders and a host of young guns making start, the 2015 edition should not disappoint.

The Route

Liège-Bastogne-Liège is a long one at 253 kilometers, and the road from Liége to the finishing town of Ans is lined with difficult climbs (officially, there are ten). This is especially true in the final 90 kilometers of the race, where eight of the ten ascents big enough to warrant an icon on the official race profile await the peloton.

The last three in particular really put the hurt on, typically whittling down the peloton and launching attacks as well: the Côte de La Redoute (2 km at an average grade of 8.9%), the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons (1.5 km at an average grade of 9.4%), and the Côte de Saint-Nicolas (1.2 km at 8.6%). Saint-Nicolas, crested just 5 kilometers from the line, is a popular place to strike out for glory. The race finishes on a gradient as well, with a climb into Ans of more than a kilometer.

With the abundance of challenging climbs and a lot of kilometers between the start and the finish, Liège wears down the peloton, but also offers opportunities for those strong enough to get clear. Sometimes the race ends in a small sprint, but there are always attacks to be marshaled, and endurance and great climbing legs are critical here.

The Contenders

Last year’s winner Simon Gerrans looks to still be recovering from a crash, meaning that Orica-GreenEdge is probably riding for the likes of Michael Albasini. That might open up the contenders conversation a bit, but fresh off his third career Flèche Wallonne victory, two-time Liège winner Alejandro Valverde comes into the race as the hot favorite. His elite climbing legs and deadly finishing kick make him an obvious choice for this race, and the form he has shown recently confirm has status as the rider to beat this year.

Michal Kwiatkowski was 3rd last year and comes into this year’s edition with Amstel Gold Race-winning confidence. His already impressive sprint has clearly improved this year, and he’s a great solo artist. It won’t be easy to match the climbing legs of some of the star uphill chargers in this race, but if Kwiatkowski can survive some of the steeper sections of the road, he’ll be able to outsprint most of the contenders in the race or outpower them in a late break to the finish.

After his incredible Basque Country performance, Joaquim Rodríguez was a bit of a disappointment only coming in 4th at La Flèche Wallonne, but this is the grand prize and the one he’s been hunting for so long. The rare soloing form he showed in the País Vasco time trial could come in handy here, matched with his elite climbing ability. This is also a race where a strong team can make a big difference, and Katusha is among the strongest. Daniel Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso, both Top 10 finishers last year, are excellent cards to play for the Russian outfit.

Dan Martin won this race in 2013 and came close to winning in 2014 before a late crash ruined his shot at victory. He’s obviously a rider to watch, but he’ll be in unknown shape following a crash at La Fléche Wallonne. If he’s healthy, he’ll be in the mix to win. Tom-Jelte Slagter is a nice backup option in case he isn’t.

Philippe Gilbert is another former winner of the race in unknown health following a crash, though unlike Dan Martin, he’s not been as successful in recent years. He looked okay at the Amstel Gold Race but he was unable to stay clear at the top of the Cauberg. Health, form, and top-level ability at this point in his career are all question marks now.

Vincenzo Nibali and Jakob Fuglsang make a great 1-2 punch for Astana. Neither can win in a sprint, but both have great uphill ability and an aggressive streak. Watch for attacks from the light blue jerseys on a late climb like the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons. Also watch out for action from Lotto Soudal. Tim Wellens is hunting for glory in the Ardennes and his best shot at a top result is a long-range move. He’s not the best climber or the most powerful soloist on the startlist, but he seems to find an extra gear when he gets up the road on a Belgian climb. Jelle Vanendert and Tony Gallopin are excellent alternatives for the team. AG2R is another squad with multiple excellent options, among them, Romain Bardet and Domenico Pozzovivo, both Top 10 finishers last year.

Rui Costa, Sergio Henao, Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Tom Dumoulin also have a chance at being in the mix in this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Joaquim Rodríguez
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tim Wellens, Dan Martin, Rui Costa, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tony Gallopin, Bauke Mollema

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Les Meloures (CC).

April 25, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 10: Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride talks Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the spring’s final big one-day race.

[powerpress]

The last of the Ardennes Classics has arrived! Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm cover the history, the parcours, and the potential scenarios for this weekend’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

Photo by Sjaak Kempe (CC).

April 24, 2015
Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege Post-race Impressions: Ardennes Week in Review

Three Ardennes week contests, three different winners, all of them among the biggest names in the one-day racing—Philippe Gilbert, Alejandro Valverde, and Simon Gerrans are all past Monument Classic winners, so it doesn’t get much bigger than that. Gilbert’s return to form was the big story of the beginning of the week: his win at Brabantse Pijl suggested that he had recovered some of his 2011 abilities, but he confirmed his rediscovery with a resounding victory over the Cauberg at the Amstel Gold Race. The recently revamped parcours looked like it might favor a final sprint, but Gilbert was just too hard to chase down on his beloved terrain. An aggressive Jelle Vanendert was a fine 2nd, and then Gerrans outsprinted Valverde and Kwiatkowski for 3rd in a surprising preview of the Liege-Bastogne-Liege showdown. Joaquim Rodriguez was an unfortunate casualty of Amstel, going down hard in an early crash.

Wednesday’s La Fleche Wallonne ended as it so often does in a climactic uphill sprint. Alejandro Valverde finally came good on months and months (stretching back to 2012) of elite form without a WorldTour victory. Daniel Martin roared back into relevance, nabbing 2nd place. And Michal Kwiatkowski, in 3rd, continued to display the sort of ability that suggests dominance in these sorts of races is not far away.

The grand finale in Liege came down to the final 5 km (just like Amstel and La Fleche Wallonne had); attacks from bigger favorites were quickly reeled in all day, but Giampaolo Caruso and Domenico Pozzovivo jumped ahead as the finish line approached and the chase to bring them back last until the closing moments. Dan Martin looked poised to bridge and possibly pass them just 300 meters from the finish, but he hit the dock rounding the last corner in a heartbreaking stroke of misfortune. Simon Gerrans, Alejandro Valverde, and Michal Kwiatkowski sailed past Martin and then the men up the road, and it was a sprint for victory, with Gerrans taking the win and his second career Monument after Milano-Sanremo. Valverde was 2nd. Kwiatkowski landed on another major podium in 3rd, but going wide around a crashed Dan Martin forced him to play catchup with Gerrans and Valverde at the very end, so I wonder what might have been for him as well.

Takeaways from the Ardennes Classics

There were plenty of surprise performances in the Ardennes Classics, but at the very top were names we’ve seen so often in the past, with a lot of similarity between the three races as well. All three basically came down to the last five minutes. All three were won by big-name one-day stars, over the age of thirty. The podium of the finale race, Liege, was made up of riders who had already stood on an Ardennes podium earlier in the week.

I suppose the results speak for themselves for race winners Gilbert, Valverde, and Gerrans. Valverde, especially, was on his game all week; interestingly, he won the race I would have imagined favored him the least. He has stayed in top-shelf shape for a long while this season, and now he’ll get some well-deserved time off to prep for the Tour de France. 4th, 1st, and 2nd across three Ardennes races is quite a haul for the 34-year-old.

Philippe Gilbert took a proud Amstel victory to put himself back among the favorites in these races but did fade a bit in La Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Still, winning Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold and notching Top 10s in La Fleche Wallonne and LBL are very worthy results, and they suggest that Gilbert has regained both form and confidence after a rocky period. He’s been around the sport for a while, but at age 31 he still has a lot of racing left in his career, and it’s good to see him righting a downward trend.

Simon Gerrans might have come up with a winning strategy for Liege after showing his form with 3rd place at Amstel: he skipped La Fleche Wallonne and recharged his batteries, and was the strongest in the sprint to the Monumental finish. It’s really been an amazing string of years for the Australian rider who started his career as more of a rouleur than anything. He completed the impressive achievement of nabbing stage wins in all three Grand Tours earlier in his career as a breakaway specialist, but he has developed into one of the premier punchy fast finishers in the sport. Since 2012, he has won two Monuments, two Tours Down Under, and two National Championships in Australia, in addition to a host of other victories and some time in the yellow jersey at the Tour de France. He does not appear to be slowing down even as he approaches 34.

In my opinion, Joaquim Rodriguez was the biggest loser of the Ardennes Classics, showing such excellent form at Catalunya only to fall victim to an unfortunate crash-caused injury at Amstel Gold. He had been focused so hard on Liege this year; it’s a big shame he was unable to contest that race. Hopefully, recovers quickly for his other big goal of the season, the Giro d’Italia. Teammate Daniel Moreno was unable to pick up the slack by repeating last year’s success; by most standards he had a decent Ardennes campaign as one of the few riders to be in the Top 10 of all three races, but three consecutive 9th place finishes are a disappointment for last years winner atop the Mur de Huy. Like Purito, Carlos Betancur was on fire early this season and looking set for big things in these races, for which he is so perfectly built, only to be laid low by injury. AG2R did not adjust well in Amstel Gold or La Fleche Wallonne, unable to pick up results there worthy of the year they are having, but they did make up for it somewhat by placing two riders in the Top 10 at Liege. Romain Bardet continued a strong 2014 with a 10th place, looking like a great bet for the future. Domenico Pozzovivo flew in from his 2nd overall at the Giro Del Trentino to pick up 5th on the day, quite a performance. He looks very strong for next month’s Giro d’Italia.

Daniel Martin‘s Ardennes week was quite a roller coast ride, and it ended on a cruel, sour note. He abandoned Amstel with knee issues, raising concerns about his health for the next few races, exploded up the Mur for 2nd at La Fleche Wallonne, quelling concerns about his health, and then just when it seemed he might be in for continued success at Liege, he went down hard in the last seconds of the contest. At least in terms of looking ahead, he does appaer to be very strong for the upcoming Giro d’Italia, but it’s hard to think of anything more demoralizing than what happened to Martin as the race came to a close today. Teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter was a bit of a happier note for Garmin; the 24-year old was 5th at La Fleche Wallonne and 6th at LBL, which is pretty darn impressive, especially given the starpower at the top. He’s been showing the sort of skillset that does well in these races, but until this week, he hadn’t confirmed that promise with results. In Martin (only 27) and Slagter, Garmin will likely feature pretty prominently in the Ardennes Classics for many years to come.

Michal Kwiatkowski was 5th, 3rd, and 3rd, second to only Valverde in consistent top performances across the week. On the one hand, two podiums (including one in a Monument) are pretty unbelievable for the 23 year old, and a confirmation of the amazing talent he has shown so early in his career. On the other hand, I don’t think anyone who has been following the sport closely really needs further confirmation of his talents, and he’s probably a bit frustrated to have come so close so many times (after being 2nd in Pais Vasco). He will take a break from racing before the Tour. Hopefully it will give him time to recharge and be at his best for the sport’s biggest show.

I can’t say I saw Jelle Vanendert‘s strong week coming. Tony Gallopin appeared to be the better option for Lotto leading up to the race after Vanendert’s relatively anonymous 2013, but 2nd at Amstel (ahead of Ardennes winners Valverde and Gerrans) and 6th at La Fleche Wallonne were great results for the Belgian. He’s really an Ardennes specialist, but hopefully we will see him with continued form in more 2o14 races with rolling terrain.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was unable to come up with a Top 10 at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but he delivered his best Amstel and La Fleche Wallonne to date. The 27 year old has rallied wonderfully after a slow start to the season, and his reassuring performances come at a time of great uncertainty for a team that has lost Robert Gesink indefinitely due to a heart health issue.

I found Vincenzo Nibali‘s Ardennes campaign to be very underwhelming. He did not feature prominently in any of the three races. After a fairly anonymous first two contests, I figured he might be saving up for Liege, but he was unable to hold on when things started splitting up at the finish. I think he really wants to win that big one-day race soon, but the Tour de France is probably a bigger target for the 2013 Giro d’Italia winner at the moment. Rui Costa crashed out of LBL after missing out in Amstel and LFW. The World Champ will be very disappointed—he started the season hot at Paris-Nice but he hasn’t managed to deliver results in the past few weeks. He’ll look to the Tour de Romandie as his next target, and with Chris Froome something of a question mark with a chest infection, things could open up for the opportunist rainbow jersey wearer.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo continued to show nice form in 2014: he just barely missed the top 10, coming in 11th, at La Fleche Wallonne, and though he was ultimately unable to make anything happen. he was very active off the front at LBL. At a time when their big name climbers (the Schlecks) are really struggling, Trek must be pleased to have struck gold in young Arredondo. Another youngster who looked sharp was Cofidis’s Rudy Molard, among the top 20 in both La Fleche Wallonne and LBL. Results like that without much team support make him a name to remember in the future.

Share your own thoughts in the comments, or give me a holler on Twitter @VeloHuman! Also keep an eye out early Monday for the Tour de Romandie preview! It should be a great race. Lastly, the Giro d’Italia is right around the corner, and as usual there will be a big overall preview as well as previews of each individual stage, so make sure you tune back in to VeloHuman!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Ed W.

April 27, 2014
Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2014 Preview

La Fleche Wallonne ended in typically epic fashion this Wednesday, with an uphill battle royale among some heavyweight talents. Michal Kwiatkowski made a strong move up the Mur de Huy, displaying impressive climbing legs on the legendary gradient. Dan Martin charged past the surging Pole further up the slope, showing the form we’ve been waiting to see this season. But it was Alejandro Valverde who made the final decisive attack as the finish line approached, and the Movistar team leader held on for the victory ahead of the pair. Amstel Gold and La Fleche Wallonne have offered their insights, and now it’s on to the final chapter of the Ardennes trilogy. Liège-Bastogne-Liège (which I am simplifying to Liege-Bastogne-Liege for ease-of-typing and searchability reasons) is the 4th Monument classic of the year, known as “La Doyenne,” or “The Oldest,” because it is the elder statesman of the five legendary one-day races. The finale of the Ardennes week runs from Liege, Belgium, to Bastogne, and then back again, finishing a few kilometers from where the race began, in the town of Ans. With 262.9 kilometers of seemingly neverending ups and downs, Liege offers no respite, and nowhere to hide.

Climbs like the Cote de Saint-Roch (1 km at 11.1% average grade) and the Cote de Stockeu (1 km at 12.4% average grade) deliver early doses of pain that are sure to stick with the peloton as things get more and more brutal towards the end of the day. At kilometer 218 of 261, La Redoute (2.0 km at 8.9% average grade) will blow the pack apart, and then the Cote de La Roche-aux-Faucons (1.5 km at 9.3%) at kilometer 243 and Cote de Saint-Nicolas (1.2 km at 8.6%) at kilometer 257 guarantee a flurry of attacks as the riders make their bids for glory with the uphill finish line finally approaching. In last year’s edition, uphill action late in the race put a small group of top talents out front, and Daniel Martin attacked from this group in the final kilometers to take the victory ahead of Joaquim Rodriguez.

To win Liege-Bastogne-Liege, a rider must have the ascending abilities to make it up all the inclines at the front of the pack, but also the endurance to survive a very long, Monumental day in the saddle. A fast finish can help, as past editions have occasionally come down to a drag race between a small group. Like all five Monuments, Liege tests riders on a wide range of skills, and it is unforgiving to those who aren’t in top shape. The final race of the Ardennes Classics, and indeed of the Spring Classics season as a whole, it guarantees excitement as riders and teams line up for their last shot at success in the early one-day contests.

As a quick aside before I get to the names to know: be sure to follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race!

The Riders to Watch

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde was already showing elite form before he took La Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday. Continental-level victories exhibited his strength early in the year, and his climbing legs were second to only Alberto Contador in Pais Vasco. With his dominant display atop the Mur de Huy this week (video below), Valverde made a loud statement ahead of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, which he has already won twice in his career. La Doyenne may suit him even better than La Fleche Wallonne, playing to his endurance and also to his fast finish, which puts pressure on his opponents. He has the form, a skillset tailored to the parcours, and a proven ability to win this race, making him a favorite to take yet another Monument victory this Sunday, even against such high caliber opposition. Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti, excellent climbers in their own right, make Movistar’s bid for glory all the more impressive.

Daniel Martin‘s condition was hazy right up until Wednesday’s race, as questionable form and knee pain cast doubts over his chances for La Fleche Wallonne and the defense of his Liege title this weekend; he dispelled concerns with his explosive charge up the Mur de Huy for 2nd place, and now finds himself right back in the discussion. The Irish climber has a habit of shining on the brightest stages. With his Monument defense this weekend and the Giro right around the corner, Martin is peaking at the absolute perfect moment, when many of his rivals may be starting to flag after more race-heavy early seasons. Garmin teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter is on amazing form and is a real contender, especially after a very impressive 5th place atop the Mur, though a strong result in a race this long and challenging would be a major step up for the 24-year-old. Ryder Hesjedal (who was instrumental in securing Martin’s victory last year) is here as well. Garmin will look to animate the race on the late hills, and I’d bet one of their top guns will be in the mix.

2014 Amstel Gold winner and former Liege victor Philippe Gilbert had a disappointing day at La Fleche Wallonne, but I’m not sure how much to read into his 10th place. A late crash in that race shook up the order on the road, and Gilbert was never really in a great position on the Mur; difficult to say how things might have gone had he been in a better spot to start, and either way, a Top 10 is hardly a bad performance. Liege presents myriad opportunities for a vintage Gilbert getaway. With an impressive team backing him that includes Samuel Sanchez, I see Gilbert as practically locked in for another Top 10 performance; winning ahead of Grand Tour style climbers will be a tall order, but the 2014 version of the former World Champ looks more up to the challenge than he has in a while.

After his Volta a Catalunya win, the 2014 season was looking bright for Joaquim Rodriguez, who was honed in on trying to finally win Liege-Bastogne-Liege after two past runner-up performances without a victory. However, his crash in the Amstel Gold Race last Sunday left him with bruised ribs, and injury question marks for the main event this Sunday. He did not clear up concerns at La Fleche Wallonne, crashing again and finishing a few minutes off the pace. On the kind of form he displayed last month, Purito would be a top favorite for Liege. As it stands, he is a bit of an unknown. I figure that a few more days of recovery will be enough to at least see him contend. Daniel Moreno and Alexandr Kolobnev (2nd in 2010) will be strong alternatives as usual for Katusha.

5th at the Amstel Gold Race and 3rd at La Fleche Wallonne, Michal Kwiatkowski is inching closer to the marquee victory he has been hunting so doggedly this season. Liege could see it happen. Kwiatkowski’s many tools make him an excellent candidate. He also has two very strong teammates for the hills in Wout Poels and Jan Bakelants. He is very good on the steep stuff, but maybe even better at surviving the steep stuff and then powering past his rivals as things start to level out. The way he has been riding this season, it is hard to see the tiny Polish champion not among the very best at La Doyenne. Like Valverde, he has the luxury of possessing a feared sprint, which can force rivals to attack. I’m excited to see what he can do in the race that is probably his biggest target so far.

Simon Gerrans took Wednesday off, which may leave the 10th place finisher in last year’s Liege fresher than his rivals. That freshness and a knack for both long-range strikes and short-range top speed make him a major threat at Liege. The Milano-Sanremo winner is a proven contender on the exceptionally long days. Orica-GreenEdge always fields excellent squads on hilly profiles and Sunday’s race is no different: Daryl Impey, Ivan Santaromita, Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, and Simon Clarke excel on a parcours like this. I’m fairly certain we’ll see a few green and yellow jerseys in the pack as the peloton hits the final climbs.

World Champ Rui Costa is a major rider to watch at Liege. He has looked okay in his Ardennes campaign so far, among the top 20 at Amstel (where I think Lampre may have been riding for Damiano Cunego at first) and in the pack at La Fleche Wallonne in support of Diego Ulissi before a crash broke his wheel and ended his time among the leaders. I imagine the strong duo of Ulissi and Cunego (two-time Liege winner) will be backing the man in the rainbow jersey this Sunday in a race that will allow him to utilize his keen sense for finding the perfect launching pad for an attack.

Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert returned to the Ardennes Classic limelight after some time on questionable form with his runner-up performance at Amstel Gold. Then, despite rumors of a knee injury, he landed 6th at La Fleche Wallonne. Clearly, he is on form in 2014. 10th is as high as he’s placed in the longer, less forgiving Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but the shape he’s in this year could see him better that result. He’s up against some stiff competition in the Ardennes finale, but he’s been very surprising so far, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he would continue to be. Tony Gallopin, who won 2013’s Clasica San Sebastian with a well-executed long-range strike, could thrive on the undulating profile.

Vincenzo Nibali has been up with the leaders towards the business end of the two Ardennes races we’ve witnessed so far, but he has not really contended at either finish line. I think that will change Sunday. Nibali is a Grand Tour winner who sets his sights high, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege is an important goal of his for the season—more so than Amstel or La Fleche Wallonne. I think a powerful attack is all but guaranteed, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him among the top contenders in the final kilometers of the race. Jakob Fuglsang, Maxim Iglinskiy (a former winner here), and Enrico Gasparotto will provide more options for Astana: 2013 Giro-winner Nibali will lead a strong team in this race. Speaking of Grand Tours, 2013 Tour de France winner Chris Froome will be at the startline as well. It’s unusual that I wait this long in a preview to mention his name, but the GC star will be hoping to try his luck for Sky at Liege on Sunday. He doesn’t have much of a resume in the Ardennes, and he’s not much of a one-day racer generally, but La Doyenne favors high endurance riders with strong climbing abilities, and Froome combines those traits better than anyone in the sport today. Richie Porte and David Lopez are able lieutenants for Sky’s squad.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema took 7th at Amstel Gold and then 4th at La Fleche Wallonne, clearly rounding into top shape at just the right moment in 2014. He was 6th at Liege in 2012, and heading up Belkin’s strong squad he’s got a great chance of improving on that result this year. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger hasn’t managed to land a great result so far in the first two Ardennes Classics, but Liege will probably suit him better, as I think he can survive the high mileage better than most. Nicolas Roche could be a valuable second.

AG2R’s Carlos Betancur struggled at La Fleche Wallonne and is likely still recovering from his knee injury; should he make drastic strides back to good health before this weekend, he could contend, but it seems like a long shot for now. Top-notch solo artist Tom Dumoulin and quality climber Warren Barguil both look like solid outsiders for Giant-Shimano. Andy Schleck suffered injury in an Amstel Gold crash and fell off the pace at La Fleche Wallonne, which doesn’t inspire much confidence for the more difficult Monument to come, but brother Frank was looking good until he fell off his bike in a late crash, and could have better fortune here. Trek teammate Julian Arredondo showed off his nice form with an 11th place in that race, and could play the role of joker. Cyril Gautier, Pierre Rolland, Tommy Voeckler, and Yukiya Arashira are well under the radar, but they are all aggressive, versatile riders who could go off the front at any time for Europcar. Arashiro is having a particularly fine spring. 260 kilometers of neverending climbs and breakneck pace do not treat outsiders kindly, but well-timed attacks can wreak havoc in this race, even against the cream of the climbing crop. Ever unpredictable weather conditions could add to the opportunities for surprises.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Daniel Martin, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Joaquim Rodriguez, Vincenzo Nibali, Rui Costa, Simon Gerrans, Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger

The new VeloHuman Twitter account will be quite active with live analysis of Sunday’s race, so be sure to follow @VeloHuman for more. I’ll also be previewing the Tour de Romandie in just a few days, so check back in soon!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Flowizm. Video courtesy of CyclingHub.

April 24, 2014