Tag: Mark Cavendish

Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Preview

Geraint Thomas provided an exciting start to the WorldTour leg of Classics season with his bold move to win E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Now it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem.

The Route

A 240 kilometer trek through Flanders, starting in Deinze (outside of Ghent) and ending in Wevelgem, the race has a flat enough finale that things are often decided in a sprint. However, cobbled climbs along the way often make things a bit more interesting, whittling the peloton down to the tougher riders in the crowd or helping to launch the more aggressive types to victory from afar. There are nine officially recognized climbs on the profile (several of those are repeat ascents of the same uphill challenge). They are all crested after the 110 kilometer mark and before the 200 kilometer mark—the first 100 km and the final 30 are relatively flat.

The short but steep Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg trio of climbs, a few kilometers southwest of Ieper, are done twice, and the conclusion of that second run-through also marks the end of the hellingen in Gent-Wevelgem. The difficult cobbles of the Kemmelberg, in particular, could be a battleground in this race, especially with the help of a common visitor to the event that seems scheduled to make another appearance in 2015: bad weather. As of Saturday, rain and very strong winds are both set to join the peloton for Gent-Wevelgem. Even with a less topographically challenging final 30 kilometers, the combination of tough cobbled climbs (and the often hairy descents that follow) in the middle of the day and likely difficult conditions throughout will surely do their damage.

The Contenders

The dearth of long climbs on the profile, especially close to the finish line, makes this a major target for the top sprinter’s in the peloton, but the bergs, the cobbles, the race distance, and the Flanders conditions will make the tougher quick men the top favorites for victory in this race, though a few of the more aggressive Classics specialists will certainly have a chance at taking this win for themselves.

Alexander Kristoff is at home in terrible conditions, comfortable on the cobbles, capable of a little climbing, and usually fresher than most after a very long day. He also happens to pack a powerful sprint. Though probably just a hair behind the likes of Marcel Kittel in terms of pure speed, here in the Classics, Kristoff’s makes up for the just slightly lower velocity with pure grit. There is no guarantee that this race ends in a sprint, but if it does, it’s hard to look past Kristoff’s abilities. He’s likely to hold on longer than most even if a high pace over the cobbled climbs starts dropping other sprinters, and if he’s there at the end of the day, few can match him in speed.

If he’s there as well, however, 2014 John Degenkolb will give Kristoff a run for his money. Already victorious over Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo, Degenkolb seems to get better and better every year both in the versatility department and in the top speed department. He’s a proven rider here in Gent-Wevelgem and on Flanders terrain in general. He might prefer a few more uphill challenges (his climbing legs are better than most) to maybe make things more selective but even if this race is contested in a large bunch sprint at the end of the day, Degenkolb will be a strong contender to repeat.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have the same sort of versatility as some of the more Classics-oriented quick men here, but he is probably the fastest in a battle of pure speed. It won’t be easy making it to the line in the lead group, especially given the weather forecast, but if Cavendish can do it, he’ll have a great chance here—EQS teammate Matteo Trentin (3rd in E3) will be a strong second option in the sprints. Lotto Soudal’s André Greipel, who often rivals Cav in the pure sprints in stage races, and who has come close here in the past, is another very fast rider who will hope to hold on for a sprint at the end of a long day.

2014 runner-up Arnaud Démare has not had as much success early this season as he would have liked, but he is a big talent on this sort of parcours and motivated to prove himself as FDJ’s sole top name in the sprints this season. The rider he edged out for 2nd last year, Peter Sagan, will have an interesting choice to make this year: will he try to hold on for a sprint and test his luck against a pack of other fast finishers (as he did unsuccessfully in 2014) or will he launch a late attack and try to catch them all by surprise (as he did successfully in 2013, when he won the race)? The smart choice would seem to be to try to get away in a smaller group here, as he has not had much success in the bunch sprint lately. Either way, multi-talented Sagan is a threat in any scenario.

Giacomo Nizzolo has never finished this race, but given his skillset, he’ll be in with a chance. He’s a powerful sprinter, with a recent win at the GP Nobili, who doesn’t mind a long day. Unfortunately for Nizzolo, he crashed out of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and his current level of readiness to face the difficult Belgian roads again in a major race is unclear.

Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Jens Debusschere, and JJ Lobato are other quick men who will have a chance if it all comes down to a sprint.

Several familiar names seem the most likely protagonists to shake up the race with a late attack. Sep Vanmarcke, on great form right now, 2nd here in 2010, and typically unfazed by bad weather, is a particularly dangerous rider right now. His continually improving sprinting ability makes his case even stronger. Pedal problems plagued slowed him at E3, but that should only make him hungrier for more racing these next few days.

Greg Van Avermaet may not have the sprinting chops of the top quick men here but he could still win in a reduced gallop, if he is feeling comfortable and still confident after a bad crash at E3 Harelbeke.

E3 Harelbeke winner Geraint Thomas is one of the sport’s most versatile riders, capable of soloing, climbing, and even sprinting at a high level. This parcours doesn’t suit him quite as well as E3’s did but there are still plenty of opportunities to attack here.

The powerful EQS trio of Zdenek Stybar, Stijn Vandenbergh, and Niki Terpstra, MTN-Qhubeka’s new acquisition Edvald Boasson Hagen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Boom, and Jurgen Roelandts are others with a chance of winning solo or from a small group.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, André Greipel, Matteo Trentin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis.

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015
Tour de France 2014: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Leeds › Harrogate – 190.5 km

The long wait for the Grand Départ of the 2014 Tour de France is over, and that means it’s time for the Stage 1 Preview as well! In case you missed the overall race preview, you can find it here. As a note: I’ll be previewing every stage of the race, all the way to the Champs-Élysées, so you can check back every day for stage profiles and picks. You can also follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race.

The opening stage of the 101st Tour is a mostly flat trip through Yorkshire. The peloton will take on a Category 4 climb and then a pair of Cat. 3s in the middle of the stage, but the bumps in the road aren’t likely to trouble anyone. 50 kilometers of generally flat roads lead into the finish, practically guaranteeing that this will be a stage for the sprinters. There is a roundabout with around 2 kilometers to go, but after that it’s a pretty straight shot to the line, meaning that the fast men will be truly flying in the final few moments. Though the high speed run-in to the finish will make it hard to tell that the riders are on a slope, the road does kick uphill a bit over the last kilometer.

The Tour de France quite often starts with a time trial, essentially denying the sprinters any opportunity to wear the yellow jersey during the race, but when things kick off with a mass-start road stage instead, the competition for a day in the sport’s most recognizable piece of clothing is fierce. The opening few days of a Grand Tour are already frenzied enough, and with riders going all out for the maillot jaune while they still have a shot, it could get hectic out there.

Given the profile, it seems likely that this stage and the coveted prize on offer will come down to a shootout between the sport’s three fastest sprinters: Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Mark Cavendish, and Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel.

I see Kittel and Cavendish as neck and neck on this one, with Greipel close behind. Kittel’s performance in last year’s Tour de France established him as sprinting’s new top man, and he’s followed up with some nice victories this year. He was head and shoulders above the competition in the Giro d’Italia before abandoning with illness. Of particular interest in his limited time in that race was his Stage 3 victory, in which he closed a ridiculous gap in the final hundred meters to overcome a serious positioning deficit and take the win. It showed just how strong he is this year even when things don’t really go as planned for his team; that strength is all the more fearsome when Giant-Shimano’s awesome leadout squad hits their mark, and they usually do. Koen de Kort, Tom Veelers, Roy Curvers, and the extremely-fast John Degenkolb make for a stellar train, and they all work very well together. In what is likely to be a very high speed finale, Kittel will be hard to beat on Stage 1.

Mark Cavendish will be going full gas to win this stage and the yellow jersey on British roads, and he is Kittel’s chief opponent. On paper, his leadout should be quite strong, but they haven’t really put it all together yet this year. Still, Cav has taken several nice wins this season to show that he’s on form, and unlike last year, there will be no question of post-Giro fatigue. I’m not sure his top-end speed matches Kittel’s but the slight uphill gradient may be more favorable to the Manx Missile, who is considerably lighter than his chief rival. Motivation will also be sky-high. These two should be neck and neck.

I think Andre Greipel’s chances are being a bit underrated by the bookies. Like Kittel, he benefits from a leadout that usually delivers him to the finish-line with machine-like precision. He will also be coming into this race with the confidence of having just won the German National Road Race Championship and a host of other victories all year. And despite his massive legs, Greipel has shown that he can succeed even on slight uphill gradients in the final few hundred meters. He should be a real contender for Stage 1.

After Stages 1 and 3, we should have a better idea of which of the big three is fastest right now, but until then, it’s hard to name a favorite of them with much certainty. There will also be a few other names in the mix, and given the increased likelihood for crashes on a hectic opening stage sprint, outsiders could find themselves battling for the win at a moment’s notice. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan generally seems locked in for the Top 5 on these sorts of stages but rarely actually contests the victory when Kittel, Cavendish, and Greipel are involved; however, the somewhat uphill finish will suit him nicely and it could give him an edge. The same is true for FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, who is on fire right now. It’s possible that Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb finds himself sprinting for the victory (if something happens to Kittel, or if, for whatever reason, his team decides to back him instead), and in that scenario, Degenkolb will be very dangerous here as well. Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo took his first WorldTour win in the Tour de Suisse last month and this finish suits him perfectly. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas will be fringe contenders. Michael Matthews, unfortunately, suffered a training crash this week and his Tour start is now in doubt. Even if he does make the start, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to be in the mix while still recovering; however, Orica-GreenEdge teammate Simon Gerrans could try his luck with this finish.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Andre Greipel

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the Tour! The preview of Stage 2 will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 1, so stay tuned. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 4, 2014
Criterium du Dauphine 2014 and Tour de Suisse 2014 Post-race Impressions: Final Stage Fireworks as Stars Tune Up for July

Takeaways from the Criterium du Dauphine

The Dauphine was supposed to be a showdown between Tour favorites Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, but other riders decided to crash the party, offering a chance for a number of stars beyond those big names to show off impressive form. At first, it did not look like any outsiders would have a chance. Chris Froome was impeccable in Stages 1 and 2, delivering a convincing victory in the opening time trial, and nabbing another stage win on the following day. Contador was not far behind in the ITT and just moments behind Froome on the second stage. Things seemed set for a showdown between the two, especially with Nibali showing signs of weakness: Astana’s GC man could not match the constant accelerations of his two rivals on the slopes of Stage 2. The coming days had plenty of surprises in store, however. Froome’s hard crash on Stage 6 raised a cloud of uncertainty over his race, but it was only the beginning of the surprises; Andrew Talanksy shocked the cycling world when his early attack on the final stage survived the immense efforts of a group of strong chasers, giving the American the overall victory ahead of Contador. Jurgen van den Broeck was another winner out of the move, sliding into 3rd overall. Meanwhile, Chris Froome couldn’t handle the pace of the chase and fell out of the Top 10 altogether, forced to be content with his two stage victories and the points jersey.

Unfortunately, Froome’s crash makes it difficult to draw any clear conclusions about his form coming into the Tour de France. He looked unstoppable on the first two stages, but it’s hard to say whether his vulnerability in the final two days was a result of his inability to match rival Contador, or pain from his injuries. With the way he rode the first mountain test, I have to imagine that his crash had a significant impact on him in the closing stages. Regardless, what could have been a major confidence booster for Froome in what has been an otherwise rough year was instead yet another disappointment. He goes into the Tour with question marks surrounding his campaign, no longer the sterling, heavy favorite he was in 2013.

Meanwhile, Alberto Contador made a strong statement: he put in a stellar opening time trial and matched Froome in the first climbing stage, even before Froome’s crash. He was by far the strongest climber of the GC riders in the penultimate day of racing. Though he was unable to reel in Talansky’s move on Stage 8, the strength he showed in his attempt was another impressive show of the excellent shape he is in. Even more encouragingly, he was able to deliver such a strong Dauphine despite lacking support from the big names that will support his Tour bid; top lieutenants like Roman Kreuziger and Nicolas Roche did not join him for this race. With the help of Tinkoff-Saxo’s first string, Contador will be an extremely difficult opponent in the Tour de France.

Vincenzo Nibali‘s 7th place in the final GC was not a bad performance, per se, but at no point in the race did he look the part of a Tour de France top contender. Time is running out for Nibali to find form in 2014 before his main objective.

Andrew Talanksy made the most emphatic statement of the Dauphine, and it wasn’t only due to his masterful attack in the final stage. He never would have been in contention for the overall had he not delivered strong performances throughout the race: 4th in the opening ITT, 5th in the mountainous 2nd stage, and the GC rider closest to Contador on Stage 7, Talansky was firing on all cylinders all week long, and he looks primed for another strong Tour de France (he was 10th last year). Jurgen van den Broeck can take many of the same positives away from the race: his podium position was the result of a consistent racing from the very first day of the Dauphine. He has been lacking that consistently recently. After a disappointing 2013, van den Broeck made a resounding statement to his team that he deserves another shot at the Tour GC this year.

Wilco Keldmeran followed up his 7th in the Giro with an excellent 4th at the Dauphine: carrying that level of form this far into June confirms that the 23-year-old is truly the real deal. Romain Bardet‘s 5th should offer a fair bit of consolation for his team; AG2R will be without Carlos Betancur come July’s main event. Adam Yates landed an impressive 6th; his Tour of Turkey victory and his 5th in the Tour of California were nice results, but a Top 10 in this race, one of the biggest one-week events of the year, is an undeniable confirmation of his talent.

Tejay van Garderen looked like a strong contender for the overall, but after faltering early he revealed that he had sustained a hip fracture in the Tour de Romandie; with that in mind, his 13th overall is not as disappointing. He did seem to get stronger as the race went on. Speaking of injuries and Top 15s, Leopold Konig notched an 11th place, which should give NetApp some hope that his recovery from a knee injury is coming along.

Among the stagehunters, Giant-Shimano’s Nikias Arndt took an impressive sprint win on a technical finishing circuit in the 3rd stage. It seems the Giant sprint train can do no wrong, no matter who is doing the sprinting (more on that train in the next Up-and-comer Q&A, so be sure to check back Monday). Simon Spilak was seen by many, including VH, as a potential outside contender for the overall victory, but whether due to heat or team leadership decisions, he instead spent the race hunting stage wins, and he secured one with a brave breakaway move on a hilly Stage 5. Teammate Yuri Trofimov, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Sky’s Mikel Nieve were other deserving breakaway victors.

Takeaways from the Tour de Suisse

For the second week in a row, the last stage of a major WorldTour race ended with brilliant fireworks to shake up the overall GC; again, an early attack stuck to the very end, overhauling the final leaderboard. Much like the Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse offered lots of insight into the form of some likely Tour de France protagonists, and it did it with plenty of excitement, to boot.

With his first opportunity as a Grand Tour leader approaching, Rui Costa delivered his third GC victory in the Tour de Suisse in grand style, on the back of some solid time trialing (his 3rd place in the Stage 7 chrono bettered even Fabian Cancellara) and stellar climbing, and with the help of the sharp racing mind for which he is well-known. His escapees held off a mad chase in the race’s final stage and he out-attacked all of them in the closing kilometers to take his first stage win and first overall victory in the rainbow jersey. It’s hard to know how Costa will fare in his inaugural run as his team’s featured GC rider in the Tour de France, but his performance in Switzerland makes a powerful statement about his form and his skillset, which is looking more well-rounded with every race.

Tony Martin of OPQS saw his chances at an impressive GC win slip through in fingers in the mountainous final stage, but he should still be very pleased with his trip to Switzerland. His ability to land a Top 10 in a very hilly race was impressive, and he won both time trials convincingly. That ITT success may not come as a big surprise, but Martin was not the bookies’ favorite in the first chrono due to its short length. With this form, he should be the favorite for the long time trial in the penultimate stage of the Tour de France, and he’ll also have earned trust from his team as a GC rider in chrono-heavy weeklong races to come.

Mathias Frank was a strong 2nd overall and, like Costa, his nice result was buoyed by a very impressive (and much improved) time trial skillset. That discipline is not traditionally seen as one of his strengths. This more complete game will serve him nicely in the upcoming Tour. Bauke Mollema, 3rd overall, did not time trial as well as expected in the Suisse, but he did climb at a very high level, an encouraging sign ahead of the Tour, especially after a slow start to his year.

Giant’s Tom Dumoulin is an established chrono talent who has flashed climbing chops as well, and he made a nice statement in this race; he used his skill against the clock to get ahead early and held on in the mountains for 5th. At just 23, he’s one of quite a number of exciting young up-and-comers for the Dutch team… again, check back Monday for more on Giant-Shimano’s young talent! Davide Formolo of Cannnondale was decidedly the revelation of the race. The 21-year-old was 4th at the Tour of Turkey, but few could have expected him to finish this major event ahead of Roman Kreuziger. He put in a pair of decent time trials and consistently climbed with the top GC riders, good for 7th overall.

Speaking of Roman Kreuziger, his Suisse was an up-and-down affair, and in the end, he settled for 8th overall. He did not time trial particularly well, and though climbed to a 2nd place finish on Stage 8, he missed the move on Stage 9 and therefore lost a chunk of time to his other rivals. It’s a disappointment for last year’s podium finisher, but it’s nothing to scoff at, and he certainly looks strong enough to play the role of elite domestique again for Alberto Contador.

Thibaut Pinot‘s 15th overall was a disappointment, but he battled sickness in the race and was unable to give it 100%. He still managed to find himself in the Top 10 on the Stage 7 time trial, which is a strong result in that discipline for him. I don’t think he’ll be too discouraged by his race.

For many observers, Bradley Wiggins will be seen as the biggest disappointment of the Suisse. He did not crack the Top 10 in the opening ITT, lost time in the following stages, crashed, and then abandoned. Sky reported that he had a chest infection coming into the Suisse, and his crash left him with a knee injury. Whatever the reason, Wiggins was unable to have much of an impact on the event. While Wiggins has already said that he won’t be on Sky’s Tour de France squad, the team has yet to make any official statements; unfortunately his forgettable trip to Switzerland probably won’t help whatever chance he still has. Teammate Sergio Henao was another victim of misfortune, this one more grave: he was hit by a car doing recon for the Stage 7 ITT, and he is out for the foreseeable future with a broken knee.

Wilco Kelderman may have been able to land a top GC result right after the Giro d’Italia, but Cadel Evans was not up for it; he finished 11th overall in the Tour de Suisse and never seemed to be a strong challenger. Fellow former Tour winner Andy Schleck was not a GC factor but he at least finished the race. Unfortunately his brother Frank crashed hard in Stage 3 and was forced to abandon.

Peter Sagan easily took his third Tour de Suisse Points jersey. He only came away with one stage victory, but he was consistently stellar over the whole first week, finishing in the Top 6 for six days in a row, and then notching the 15th best ITT in Stage 7. He looks very sharp. Mark Cavendish of OPQS took a convincing victory in Stage 4 to put the pure sprinters on notice that he’s feeling strong as the Tour approaches. Unfortunately, he was unable to contest the following stage: he was one of several riders to hit the deck in a crash in the last few hundred meters. Sacha Modolo survived the carnage to take a victory that day, and I doubt anyone will say that it was purely a lucky break as his rivals crashed behind him: he looked extremely fast in the final moments of the stage, and he’s been close to a victory like this for a while.

Johan Esteban Chaves deserves a paragraph of his own. Orica-GreenEdge obviously has a collection of brilliant sprinters, puncheurs, and breakaway artists, but they have been looking for a top-flight climber to score victories when the road goes up. Suddenly, they are flush with climbing young talent. Adam Yates has the makings of a star, as he proved in the Dauphine, and 24-year-old Johan Esteban Chaves Rubio, who, like Yates, also flashed brilliance in the Tour of California, made another loud statement this week with a victory on the Verbier climb. To boot, he did it with a late uphill surge from the pack of GC heavyweights, besting uphill stars like Roman Kreuzgier and Bauke Mollema. The future looks bright for OGE and their young climbers.

La Grande Boucle Awaits

The Tour de France is now less than two weeks away. In the interim, national championship races will put new riders into national jerseys, and the Tour’s biggest protagonists will get in their final days of preparation before the main event. VeloHuman has plenty in store: check back soon for another entry in the Up-and-comer Q&A Series, and get ready for Tour de France previews!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Georges Menager and youkeys.

June 22, 2014
Tour de Suisse 2014 Preview

As the Criterium du Dauphine is heading towards its conclusion, the second major Tour de France tuneup race kicks off Saturday: the Tour de Suisse. Much like its French cousin, the Suisse features a diverse array of challenges, with time trials, sprinters’ days, hilly stages, and mountaintop finishes. The good mix of profiles draws an impressive startlist of riders, many of whom are using the nine-day event to perfect their form leading into July’s main event.

While the biggest GC names of the Tour de France have preferred to use the Dauphine as their warmup of choice in recent years, the Suisse has drawn some major protagonists as well. Current rainbow jersey wearer Rui Costa is the defending champion; he followed up on his 2013 Suisse with a pair of stage wins in the Tour. Meanwhile, Peter Sagan has won the Points Classification of the Tour de Suisse prior to both of his Green Jerseys in the Tour de France. Costa and Sagan are on a long list of returning riders likely to feature again. As a note: most of the big names on the provisional startlist look set to go, but the official startlist is not completely finalized at this point, so keep an eye out for late additions and subtractions.

The Route

The 78th Tour de Suisse begins with a 9.4 kilometer time trial. While short, it involves a tough climb and a tricky descent, so it’s not going to be as simple or as speedy as last year’s mostly flat out-and-back prologue. Stage 2 has some tough climbs (two HC-rated mountains and then a Cat. 2) in the middle of the day, followed by a late Category 2, but a downhill and then flat final 21 kilometers could limit GC action. The third stage has some bumps along the way and an uncategorized uphill finish. Stage 4 and Stage 5 are mostly flat days likely for the sprinters.

Stage 9: Martigny › Saas-Fee (156.5 km) – A challenging climb closes out the final stage of the Tour de Suisse, ensuring that the GC battle will go all the way down to the wire.

Stage 6 has a late climb that could inspire punchy riders to make moves. A 24.7 kilometer time trial on Stage 7 will have major GC implications. It does have a few bumps to offer some consolation to the pure climbers, but it’s a far cry from the hill climb chrono that finished the 2013 TdS. The uphill specialists will look forward to the following two days. A Hors Categorie ascent to Verbier closes out Stage 8. Stage 9 will guarantee an open fight for GC to the final meters of the Tour de Suisse: it’s a short one at 156.5 km, but the profile will challenge the peloton with a Cat. 1, a Cat. 2, another Cat. 1, and then an HC-rated summit finish where the Tour de Suisse will crown its overall victor.

The General Classification Contenders

Lampre’s Rui Costa has won the past two editions of the Tour de Suisse. This is a race that he knows how to win, and a stage on which he loves to shine. His very versatile array of skills (climbing legs, a fair bit of punch, and an underrated time trial) are well-suited to varied profiles of the weeklong event. He showed excellent form this year in Switzerland’s other major stage race, the Tour de Romandie, where he was 3rd behind Chris Froome and Simon Spilak. Riding as his team’s main option in the upcoming Tour de France for the first time, Costa will be eager to put his talents on display. He will also be eager to pick up his first win in the rainbow jersey, and this may be his best chance all year.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was runner-up and a stage winner in 2013 and he will be hunting continued success this year. He, too, sports a very strong combination of talents that will keep him comfortable in both the hills and the high mountains of the race. Belkin sends an excellent squad to support his amibitions, with climbing expert Laurens Ten Dam to play the role of second. Mollema has all the tools to contend for the overall victory in the 2014 Tour de Suisse.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger rounded out the 2013 podium (and he actually won this race back in 2008) and he will again have a shot at a good result this year. Kreuziger is Alberto Contador’s top lieutenant in the Tour de France, but at the TdS he has the chance to ride for his own ambitions, and he will be an excellent bet to achieve his goals, given his well-rounded skillset. Kreuziger had a hot start to the year but has not raced in over a month; however, with Tinkoff-Saxo’s main target approaching, he should be getting back up to top form now.

Sky’s Bradley Wiggins will certainly bring excitement to the race, especially coming off a Tour of California victory, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him. He worked himself down to a GC-oriented weight for his AToC bid, but now that he does not plan on riding in La Grand Boucle, he may refocus his approach to prep himself for time trialing and track goals to come. Obviously, with the motivation and focus, Wiggins is a major contender, but there are enough question marks that I don’t see him as the top favorite he is capable of being. Teammate Dario Cataldo couldn’t quite come away with a victory in the Giro d’Italia but he looked great throughout that race and could feature as a fringe contender with two time trials on the route. It is worth noting that Sky is also sending Sergio Henao to the Tour de Suisse, his first race since an extended break from competition.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot should be able to land himself another good result (he was 4th last year). He has shown an improved time trial this year, outperforming expectations in Pais Vasco and Romandie, and the ability to limit his losses in a discipline that troubled him in the past will be critical with this route. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank (5th in 2013) is another rider I expect to see at the very top. He, too, has displayed a more balanced approach in 2014, and he has a knack for success in races that take place in his home nation. He led the 2013 Tour de Suisse into the final day, but ultimately fell several placings with a lackluster performance on the last stage, a hill climb ITT. With that on his mind, and now the sole leader on a new team, Frank is likely to be a major protagonist.

BMC’s Cadel Evans and AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo are both only a few days removed from the Giro d’Italia. Wilco Kelderman has shown in the Dauphine that it’s possible to carry that Grand Tour form even into the middle of June, but it won’t be easy. Evans was fading as the Giro drew to a close, so it will be a big ask for him to continue to perform at a high level here. Pozzovivo battled illness in the Giro’s final week, but he maintained his strong performance through the last days of the race, and he may have more in the tank. Christophe Riblon makes for another excellent option for AG2R. The climbing expert (and Alpe d’Huez winner) showed an improved time trial in last year’s Tour de Pologne, and he’ll be motivated to perform leading into the Tour de France. Carlos Betancur was supposed to ride this race, but recent news suggests that he is skipping the Suisse, and possibly even the Tour de France.

Movistar’s Ion Izagirre is a vastly underrated GC performer who has flashed strong chrono chops to complement his excellent climbing skills recently. Rarely given the opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, he will have a nice shot at success here. Eros Cappechi is one of a number of strong teammates. Garmin is another very strong all-round squad led by riders who often play lieutenant roles. Rohan Dennis was 2nd only to Bradley Wiggins in the Tour of California. His time trialing prowess is well-known, but he has worked to better himself on the slopes in 2014 and it has really paid off. Teammates Janier Acevedo is a pure climber who will look to light up the late mountain stages, and Tom Danielson may feature in a similar role.

Giant-Shimano’s trio of Warren Barguil, Lawson Craddock, and Tom Dumoulin pack a particularly strong punch. Barguil has the climbing saavy to survive the late climbs. Craddock and Dumoulin are both excellent all-rounders who will look to jump to an early advantage in the time trial. Tony Martin of OPQS will likely be well-placed after that opening chrono as well, and he has decent climbing legs to boot. It wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see him hunting a GC result. Trek’s Schleck brother duo will hope to pick up a decent result; Frank has had something of a resurgence this year. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort, strong in the time trial, could put up a nice performance. MTN-Qhubeka’s Louis Meintjes is a fast-rising, versatile rider who is just coming into his own. His team may surprise some—they have a lot of talent for a variety of scenarios, and Meintjes can hang with the big guns when the road goes up (he was 5th at the Giro del Trentino in April). Orica-GreenEdge’s Johan Chaves is another outsider with a chance for success: he delivered a beautiful Tour of California stage win last month and he will look to make a late move up the GC leaderboard on the HC-rated climbs of the last two stages.

The Stagehunters

A number of elite stagehungers make the start from Bellinzona. Peter Sagan was brilliant in the 2013 edition, shocking everyone by nabbing a victory after surviving a particularly mountainous Stage 3 that even dropped most of the GC contenders, and he will try to defend his Points title in 2014. It won’t be easy. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, supported by excellent-sprinter-in-his-own-right Luka Mezgec, is on fire in 2014 and has shown an ability to handle some of the tougher peloton-whittling climbs that Sagan also prefers.

Unfortunately for both of them, they’ll have to contend with Mark Cavendish and his elite OPQS leadout squad on the flatter days. Tom Boonen is here for Omega Pharma as well: they mean business in this race. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is another sprinter hoping to make an impression, and for once, he’ll actually have an entire team dedicated to his ambitions in a stage race. He took a stage last year and will be hungry for more. Sky’s Ben Swift gets another chance to shine this season, and he look for the harder days as opportunities to win from a reduced bunch. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo got off to a hot start in 2014 and could find himself returning to success here. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard is a brilliant young talent who could feature. MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and JJ Lobato, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, OGE’s Matt Goss, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s in-form Matti Breschel and Michael Morkov are other likely sprint protagonists.

For the very hilly days, look out for Garmin’s Tom Jelte-Slagter, Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert, and OGE’s Michael Albasini, who lit up the Tour de Romandie, to try to take on the GC riders for stage supremacy. Don’t be surprised to see classics powerhouses like Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra and Stijn Vandenbergh, and Trek’s Stijn Devolder and, of course, Fabian Cancellara looking for long distance victories either. Cancellara will also headline (along with Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin) an elite field of chrono riders for the race’s two stages against the clock. Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and AG2R’s Patrick Gretsch are specialists who will hope to contend with that trio, as well as a number of other aforementioned strong ITT riders, for prestigious wins against elite competition.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Rui Costa
Podium: Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger
Other Top Contenders: Thibaut Pinot, Mathias Frank, Ion Izagirre, Bradley Wiggins, Rohan Dennis, Domenico Pozzovivo, Laurens Ten Dam

I will not be doing daily stage previews here, but follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for stage picks and commentary. And check back soon for some very exciting things to come: Q&As with some of the sport’s up-and-coming young stars and plenty of Tour de France coverage are right around the corner.

-Dane Cash

Photos by F. Gopp and youkeys.

June 12, 2014
Gent-Wevelgem 2014 Preview

A Cobbled Classic for the Fastest Riders in the Pack

E3 Harelbeke is in the books! Cannondale’s Peter Sagan, facing questions of his form after a disappointing Milano-Sanremo, won a commanding victory over Niki Terpstra and Geraint Thomas, surviving attempts from the peloton to reel in their late attack. Now, it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem, Sunday’s roughly 230 kilometer journey from Deinze to Wevelgem near the Flemish coast. Its trademark Kemmelberg is a steep, challenging obstacle on the way to the finish, but Gent-Wevelgem has been one for the sprinters in recent years (though Peter Sagan used a late attack, and not his elite sprint, to win last year’s edition). As such, the field is full of fast men. Most of the top names are here, and their teams will be focused on bringing them to the line safely.

Peter Sagan, winner here last year, has the climbing legs to make it over the bumps along the way and the kick to outsprint most of the starters to the line. VeloHuman wasn’t really concerned about his form after Milano-Sanremo, but some observers were; he put those concerns to bed with a masterful performance at E3 Harelbeke. It’s hard to see a select group making the final kilometers without Sagan in it, and he has one of the fastest finishes in the race, fast enough to contend with anyone here. If he feels threatened by some of the bigger sprinters, he also has the ability to power away on his own, as he did in 2013.

Omega Pharma might have had a strong bid to challenge Sagan here, but health issues are putting their chances in doubt. Tom Boonen has won this race three times. Like Sagan, he can make it over bumps and can get into late moves, or initiate them himself, but he also has the kick to be in the mix in a bunch finish. However, he injured his thumb in E3 Harelbeke, and that injury could keep him from making an impact at Gent-Wevelgem; keep an eye here or at the new VH Twitter account, @VeloHuman, for updates. He’ll be in my Top 10 for now. Zdenek Stybar is another option, but G-W might not be difficult enough for him to be a true contender. Stijn Vandenbergh looked great in E3, but his finishing kick could leave him lacking here. Pure sprinter Mark Cavendish could have been the guy for OPQS (his 5th place in Sanremo shows he’s capable in 2014 of making it to the line in a tough one day race, and with the elite Belgian squad to deliver him, Gent-Wevelgem could have been within his reach), but a fever will sideline him Sunday. Perhaps they will turn to Nikolas Maes in his stead?

Mark Cavendish’s ever-present sprinting rival Andre Greipel will make the start. The Lotto-Belisol rider mentioned both cramps and a gearing issue as problematic for him in MSR, but whatever the reason, he did not make an impression there. Still, with a strong team to help him overcome the Belgian landscape, he’s a great bet in a sprint finish. Lotto looked very good at E3 Harelbeke, and Gent-Wevelgem could suit their star fast man.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff was not in the least bit troubled by the rigors of Milano-Sanremo, and he showed an impressive kick after a hard-fought day in that race, taking a commanding victory ahead of some top talent. Clearly at the top level right now, Kristoff will look to deliver again in Gent-Wevelgem. He has a knack for winning bunch sprints in the cobbled classics, even if those sprints are contesting 4th place behind the day’s last surviving attackers. This race offers a great opportunity for sprinters like Kristoff to actually contest the victory. Luca Paolini is a fine second. Another rider who has made a career out of a impressive kicks following long days is Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, who was robbed of his chance at Milano-Sanremo glory by an untimely puncture in the closing kilometers. He will take on Gent-Wevelgem looking for some shred of vindication. He managed to make it into the Top 10 of last year’s Tour of Flanders and the 2012 edition of E3, so he has shown at least some ability on cobbled Belgian roads. On the fine form he’s showing this year, with the added fuel of a chip on the shoulder, Degenkolb should challenge for victory here.

FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was unable to hang on in Milano-Sanremo but this race should be more manageable, and he looks good this year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo was a well-placed finisher in MSR and might be an even better bet here, with Filippo Pozzato (who has notched a few top 10s here) another strong option for the team, especially if some of the top sprinters are weeded out. Orica-Greenedge sends Matt Goss, desperate to show he still has what it takes. Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar looked great in Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 Harelbeke, and he has a very strong supporting cast to deliver him here. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland has looked great in several races this year, and he, too, has a very strong supporting cast. Other contenders looking for a sprint finish, reduced or otherwise, include Astana’s Borut Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi, MTN’s Gerald Ciolek, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, Tinkoff-Saxo’s triple option of Matti Breschel, Daniele Bennati, and Michael Morkov, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi and Heinrich Haussler, Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (winner in 2009) and Bernie Eisel (winner in 2010), NetApp’s Sam Bennett, WGG’s Jean-Pierre Drucker, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and BMC’s Thor Hushovd.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara could try to animate the race with a solo move. A crash with around 40 km to go in E3 made it all the more difficult for Cancellara to get to the front of affairs, but his 8th place there showed good cobbled form. Unfortunately for Cancellara, the G-W parcours favors him less. Still, he’s shown a good finishing kick so far in 2014 should he need to use it. Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, also on blazing form this spring (hampered in that race by a number of mechanical issues, he still nabbed 5th at E3 Harelbeke), will look for getaway opportunities as well. Teammate Lars Boom is sure to do the same; watch out for fireworks from Belkin. The parcours will make victory from a late attack difficult, but Sky’s Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas (looking great right now), Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld, BMC’s Greg van Avermaet and Taylor Phinney, Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts and Tony Gallopin, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, Omega Pharma’s Zdenek Stybar, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, and WGG’s Bjorn Leukemans are other candidates to go for a long one.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Peter Sagan
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Andre Greipel
Other Top Contenders: John Degenkolb, Arnaud Demare, Borut Bozic, Sacha Modolo, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen, Tyler Farrar

VeloHuman has just joined the Twitterverse! Follow @VeloHuman for more news and views on the pro peloton.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Vlaam.

March 28, 2014
Milano-Sanremo 2014 Preview

Getting Back to Basics in La Classicissima di Primavera 2014

2014’s Milano-Sanremo harkens back to a past age, in which La Primavera was a marquee goal for the tougher sprinters in the peloton. The race was supposed to finish with a climb of the Pompeiana, making it even more climber-oriented than it has been in recent years, but damaged roads forced a route change. The climb of Le Manie had already been taken out to make way for the new ascent up the Pompeiana, and it has not been returned to the route, meaning the sprinters suddenly have a chance to contend again. Still, there are some lumps to overcome, and it’s a 294 kilometer race, and as might be expected of the already grueling spring Monument, rain is in the forecast for Sunday; suffice it to say, there are enough variables to leave this race wide open for the taking.

VeloHuman will be live tweeting analysis of Sunday’s action, so be sure you’re following @VeloHuman on Twitter. And if you’re looking for straight predictions, as usual, my top 10 contenders are at the end of the post.

The Contenders

The flat-enough parcours is drawing some of the peloton’s fastest finishers to Milano-Sanremo, and with so little data to draw on in the early season, it’s hard to name a favorite for the race. The most obvious candidate is last year’s runner-up Peter Sagan. If a bunch sprint arrives, Sagan has shown an ability to hang with the best on a good day, especially after a few tough climbs. If an attack goes, Sagan will be sure to follow. In either eventuality, Sagan can nab a victory, and that’s what makes him the most likely winner here. Working against him is the simple fact that he is not the fastest sprinter in this race, and in the event of a mass gallop, he may be facing Andre Greipel and Mark Cavendish, with their elite leadouts. He’ll look to keep a brutal pace over the few climbs that remain in this race, the Poggio and Cipressa, in an effort to whittle down his opponents.

2008’s winner Fabian Cancellara will be sure to join in on the fight to drop the likes of Cavendish and Greipel, as he’d be even less likely than Sagan to win if they were to make it to the line. The 5.6 km, 4.1% average grade Cipressa and the 3.7 km, 3.7% average grade Poggio are not the most challenging summits on Earth, but after 250 kilometers, they’ll hurt a lot more than you might think. Cancellara, like Sagan, will look for a winning move, and a chance to divebomb a rainy descent on the way to the finish line.

For the first time in years, Cancellara and Sagan face the possbility of the high-powered sprinters making it to the finish. Milano-Sanremo is still the longest race on the calendar, and there are still some climbs to manage, and it’s going to be raining, so nothing will come easy to the sprint teams, but a battle royale among the gallopers is more than just a possibility. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb has the form and the versatility to be in contention to the very end. Of the riders not named Sagan with the firepower to beat Cavendish and Greipel in a straight up sprint, he is probably the least likely to be dropped on the climbs, or whittled down by the pace to a point of overwhelming late fatigue. He’s had success in the classics in recent years and he looks good so far this year, with his Paris-Nice stage win and points jersey serving as ample evidence of form. Moreover, he’ll be able to take advantage of the well-marshalled GSH leadout that so often pulls Marcel Kittel to the line. Unfortunately for Degenkolb, some of Kittel’s main rivals might make it to the finish as well. In the event that no late attack stays away, all eyes will be on Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Mark Cavendish and Lotto-Belisol’s Andre Greipel. Tom Boonen withdrew from the race after a family tragedy, but OPQS still has a typically elite squad to support Cavendish here with a world-class leadout, which includes former winner Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Renshaw (who, in the event that Mark Cavendish misses out on the bunch sprint for whatever reason, suddenly become contenders themselves). Meanwhile, Andre Greipel has a great chance to take his first big one-day win. He has shown improving ability to get over harder ascents in recent years and he showed blazing form early on in 2014. The past few weeks, he has quieted down somewhat, but Milano-Sanremo is sure to elicit a high octane effort from the German and his top-flight leadout squad.

In a potential bunch sprint finish, other names we could see matched up against these blue bloods include last year’s winner Gerald Ciolek of MTN-Qhubeka, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff (who top 10ed in MSR, Flanders, AND Paris-Roubaix last year), Lampre’s Sacha Modolo (who is coming off of brilliant performances in a number of early season races), FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who is focuing hard on the classics and can handle a climb or two), Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge (a rider who has shown Degenkolb-style versatility in his first few years in the peloton, and who looked quite capable of managing tougher hills in the recent Paris-Nice), and Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (who was one of the strongest riders in March’s Omloop Het Niewsblad). Outsiders in a heads-up sprint, reduced or otherwise, include Europcar’s Bryan Coquard (a bit disappointing in Paris-Nice, but a candidate to surprise everyone with his elite top speed), BMC’s Thor Hushovd, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati and Michael Morkov, and Bardiani-CSF’s Filippo Fortin, Sonny Colbrelli, and Enrico Battaglin (hard to say who gets the nod among the young Italians), IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler (2nd in 2009) and up-and-coming Matteo Pelucchi, and AG2R’s Davide Appolonio.

A number of teams come to Milano-Sanremo packed with riders hoping to get separation and avoid a bunch sprint. Astana’s roster seems built purely for this goal. Vincenzo Nibali had hoped this year would give him a chance to nab a victory in the Italian monument, but without the big climbs, his bid for glory took a serious hit. Still, he’ll be sure to put pressure on the fast men and he’ll appreciate the bad weather making it harder to follow him on the descents. Enrico Gasparotto, Borut Bozic, Francesco Gavazzi, and Maxim Iglinskiy are all legitimate options for a win from a small group of escapees. BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is guaranteed to be looking for the same opportunities. Had the route planned for 2014 remained unchanged, Gilbert would be in a great position to nab an MSR win, but as it stands, he’ll have to up the aggression to drop the faster finishers. Greg van Avermaet and Taylor Phinney are also likely to fire off attacks to keep the tension high. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema, Garmin-Sharp’s very hot Tom-Jelte Slagter and wily Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger, and Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi are likely looking to double down on late attacks as well. Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans is an interesting case; he’s a former winner of this race who looked very strong early in 2014, but, like Gilbert, he would probably have favored a tougher course. As it stands, he’s likely to attack, but OGE might suspect that Michael Matthews presents a better opportunity to win the race. Lampre’s Diego Ulissi and Filippo Pozzato (a former winner), OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Michal Kwiatkowski, and Zdenek Stybar, Movistar’s Fran Ventoso, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, Katusha’s Luca Paolini, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot (hot off of Paris-Nice) and Lotto-Belisol’s Tony Gallopin may look for similar opportunities to get involved in late attacks, even if their teams may see their bunch sprinters as the first option.

The late climbs are likely to bring out some of these opportunists, but they will have to work very hard to leave the fast men in the dust (or mud, as it were, given the likelihood of rain). Whoever wins this race, after 294 kilometers of riding, he will have truly earned the Monumental honor.

VeloHuman Favorites

Winner: Peter Sagan

Podium: John Degenkolb, Andre Greipel

Top 10: Mark Cavendish, Alexander Kristoff, Fabian Cancellara, Arnaud Demare, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michael Matthews, Sacha Modolo

Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter, and check back soon for the Volta a Catalunya preview!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Marianne de Wit.

March 21, 2014