Tag: Michael Matthews

Tour of Beijing 2013 Preview

The Road Ahead

The last WorldTour race of the year! Despite all the controversy around this race, and all the derision that is heaped on it by observers due to the poor organization and abysmal air quality that riders must suffer through in the name of cycling’s globalization (and in the service of a fat paycheck for the UCI), it’s still a major event with major contenders seeking last minute WT points. For all the hate it gets, it’s still a race that sees some of the sport’s biggest names fighting for victory, and the 2013 edition is no different. Current and former World Champions of Road Race and Time Trial, a Monument winner, and the Vuelta’s best sprinter are all making the journey to China.

The 2013 Tour of Beijing will consist of five stages, none of them time trials. The first is a flat day sure to end in a sprint. The second throws in a few hills, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it’s another likely day for the sprinters. Stage 3 involves a hefty dose of climbing miles sure to put some fatigue in the legs before a summit finish on Stage 4 atop Miaofeng Mountain (site of the lovely sunset scene depicted above) sure to decide the Tour of Beijing. The final stage is a flat circuit race, another day for the sprinters.

All-rounder Roundup

Tony Martin is the two time winner of the Tour of Beijing, and as usual he heads a strong cast of supporters, but this year’s trip to China is different from the previous two: not only is there no time trial, but there is also a steep summit finish, which has not been the case in Tours of Beijing past. Stage 4 almost guarantees the winner will be a climber; the only way Tony Martin wins this race is with a long distance breakaway. Obviously he’s the rider to make this happen if it does, but that kind of gap when he has such a target on his back will be a tall order.

There are plenty of star climbers to take up the challenge. The best combination of form and talent at this point seems to be Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin, 4th in this race and King of the Mountains last year. In 2013, that mountain prowess means so much more. Martin was one of the top five riders in Lombardy last week, and a time trial-less one-week stage race with only one or at most two days to make an all out attack is just his style. Back in March, he won the Volta a Catalunya with a powerful uphill move on the most mountainous stage of the race, he’ll look to do the same here.

World Champion Rui Costa leads a strong Movistar squad. He’s an elite climber and, like Dan Martin, has elite explosiveness well-suited for stage races decided on one or two key days. Obviously, the world champion is on form right now, as he always seems to be at the end of the year. The two-time Tour de Suisse winner was 9th here last year. Capable climbers Benat Intxausti and Giovanni Visconti provide ample alternatives for the Spanish team.

A third rider matching form to ability is Belkin’s Robert Gesink, who has some good results these past few weeks, winning in Quebec and coming in 10th in Lombardy. Not long ago he was touted as a Grand Tour contender, with climbing talent that landed him in the top 5 of a Tour de France. Like Martin, he’s shown a great kick in one-day races this year, and also like Martin, he’ll appreciate the lack of a time trial stage. Wilco Kelderman is a great backup option.

Richie Porte heads Team Sky’s challenge. The Paris-Nice winner showed climbing ability in the Tour de France on par with the best riders in the world. The only question now is form: he hasn’t made many waves since rolling into Paris with Chris Froome. Young American Joe Dombrowski and Spaniard David Lopez are other very strong climbers on the squad.

Another big name from earlier this season whose form is a question is Giro Young Rider Classification winner Carlos Betancur. The climbing specialist was purely a domestique for Domenico Pozzovivo in the Vuelta, but he looked to be improving in the ensuing one-day races in Italy. Obviously, if Betancur recovers that form, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, AG2R La Mondiale sends a lot of firepower: Tour de l’Ain winner Romain Bardet, Tour de France stage winner and Tour de Pologne stage winner/GC podium finisher Christophe Riblon, and Jean-Christophe Peraud mean business. AG2R could be one of the most active teams on stages 3 and 4; they’re sure to launch repeated volleys in the classics-style climbs in the former and the long uphill grind of the latter, hoping one sticks.

Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has looked strong since his return, but he doesn’t have much in terms of results to show for his decent form; he abandoned the Vuelta and came in just outside the top 10 at Il Lombardia. He’ll hope to outlast his rivals on the long climb to the summit on Stage 4. Fellow aging star Michael Rogers will rue the lack of a time trial, but he’s been quite good this year in one week races in which he’s actually had a chance to ride for his own ambitions, finishing 6th in the Dauphine and 2nd in the Tour of California.

Orica-GreenEdge’s Cameron Meyer, Astana’s Janez Brajkovic, BMC’s Mathias Frank, and Vacansoleil’s Thomas De Gendt are other names to keep in mind. Zdenek Stybar is another option for Omega Pharma – Quick Step; he could go for a long strike on the hilly stage 3 in an attempt to mitigate his losses in the probably-too-mountainous-for-him stage 4.

This late in the year, with form fading after a long season and several riders hunting WT points at the close of 2013, the fight for the Tour of Beijing GC could see any number of enterprising contenders as the last man standing.

Stagehunters

Sagan, Cavendish, Kittel and Greipel might be sitting this one out, but there is a lot of young talent in China to take advantage of the three likely sprinter’s days. Michael Matthews, double stage winner in the Vuelta, headlines the list. OGE made it public that Matthews was their man for the harder sprint days in that race, with Leigh Howard as the man for the pan flat days, but when Matthews took a strong win early, his team gave him their full support on every bunch gallop opportunity, and he rewarded their faith with a victory in the final stage in Madrid. He’ll face fierce competition from FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, who won a Paris-Nice stage in March and found himself in the mix in a number of Giro stages, Cannondale’s Elia Viviani (winner of two stages in past Tour of Beijing), and of course, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, who started the year off slowly, but has picked things up in the post-Tour months. Luka Mezgec of Argos-Shimano was constantly nipping at the heels of Peter Sagan in their trip to North America recently, and he’ll have the support of a well marshalled lead out; Tom Veelers is a good alternate option. Alessandro Petacchi will be the man in the sprints for OPQS. Even at 39 he’s still looked imposing, runner-up in a Tour of Britain stage and always near the front in the Eneco Tour’s flat days. Constant high finisher but rare winner Robert Ferrari leads Lampre’s charge, and without the likes of Cavendish, perhaps he can nib a win here. I have already named Steele von Hoff an under the radar challenger this year so I suppose that precludes him from being considered under the radar again here, but if he wasn’t on your radar yet, he should be. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus was a hot sleeper pick for the sprints in the Vuelta and he achieved nothing there; maybe he’ll get back on track here before he dons the Belkin green next year. Vacansoleil also has Kenny Van Hummel. On sprinting duty for a very strong AG2R team is Yauheni Hutarovich.Katusha has a trio of young sprinters in Alexey Tsatevich, Marco Haller (who won a stage here last year) and, going way under the rader, Anton Vorobyev.

Regardless of whether he has a shot at GC, Zdenek Stybar is a great pick to nab a stage win on one of the five days. The Czech hardman, unfazed by the mud of the cyclocross circuit, the dust and cobbles of Paris-Roubaix, or the lumps of the Ardennes, is as good a bet as any to handle the Beijing smog and come out on top at a stage finish line with his versatile skillset. Stage 3 looks like a great place to strike, but he’s shown in a matter of weeks that he’s capable of winning on all kinds of profiles. His teammate Nikolas Maes is another sneaky stagehunter. The Astana trio of Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel, Cannondale’s Daniele Ratto and Damiano Caruso, Radioshack’s Jan Bakelants, and AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini are all versatile fast finishers. Gavazzi and Nocentini were 2nd and 6th, respectively, in last year’s GC. I think that’s unrealistic to repeat with this year’s parcours, but stage victories could be on their minds. The Tour of Beijing will be the farewell race of longtime star of combativity, Juan Antonio Flecha, and you can guarantee he’ll be going 100% in every breakaway possible in his last pro event. Stephen Cummings, 4th here in the past, is another strong breakaway candidate. And of course, Tony Martin will certainly be trying to get away on his own, even if he doesn’t think he has a shot at GC.

With so many stages sure to end in a bunch finish with the climbers taking it easy in the back of the peloton, it will be the stagehunters at the fore for the majority of the Tour of Beijing.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Daniel Martin

Podium

Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

Top 10

Carlos Betancur, Michael Rogers, Richie Porte, Ivan Basso, Mathias Frank, Christophe Riblon, Thomas De Gendt

-Dane Cash

Photo by Tim Wang.

October 10, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Post-race Impressions: Ring in the Old, Ring in the New

Even More Unpredictable Than Predicted

Now that the peloton has finally ended its journey in Madrid, we can look back on a few of the storylines. The biggest storyline of the Vuelta is obviously the succcess of Christopher Horner, who improved on his previous best Grand Tour performance (a lone top 10, 9th in the Tour de France in 2010) by winning the race ahead of past winners Vincenzo Nibali and Joaquim Rodriguez. He won a stage early on and it seemed like a great feel-good story, the balding veteran outclassing the favorites for a day; then he proceeded to look stronger and stronger each day, ultimately dropping Nibali and the rest nearly whenever he set his mind to it. This was always going to be a race for a strong climber (the only individual time trial had a categorized climb right in the middle of it), and Horner was unquestioably the best climber in Spain these past three weeks. Obviously there are a lot of theories on how he managed to take everyone by surprise and dominate the ascents, but clearly fresh legs played a part, as Horner had little mileage prior to the start of the Vuelta, unlike the rest of the big favorites, who had all taken on the Giro or the Tour already. Similarly, Contador hadn’t raced a Grand Tour before his Vuelta win last year, and Juan Jose Cobo’s 2011 Vuelta was his first Grand Tour of the year as well. Future hopefuls should take note.

It’s important to note that as old as he is, it’s not like Horner came out of nowhere. His career has had an interesting arc: much of his prime was spent racing (and really dominating) the American circuit. When he did finally start to concentrate on the higher level Euro competition, he was already well into his 30s: but he had a lot of success, and didn’t really see any decline as he aged either. As recently as 2010 (the year he top 10ed in the Tour), he won Pais Vasco. He was 2nd there and 4th in Catalunya in 2011 (a year in which he also won the Tour of California), was 2nd in Tirreno-Adriatico and 9th in Pais Vasco in 2012, and was 6th at Tirreno-Adriatico this year. None of those results come close to winning the Vuelta, but they show that he’s quietly built quite a resume very late in his career: a Grand Tour win will be the perfect marquee accomplishment for the 41 year old. The question now is: where will he be next year? As explosive and resilient as he was in the Tour of Spain, he doesn’t have a team for next year. It’s only a matter of time before someone makes him an appealing offer commit his smiles and his small frame to their cause.

After losing the race he was so heavily favored to win just a week ago, Vincenzo Nibali probably isn’t smiling, but taking 1st place in a grueling Giro and then 2nd place in the Vuelta with all those Italian miles already in your legs is an unbelievable accoomplishment that deserves recognition even if it was disappointing for Nibali. A single Grand Tour podium in a year is a feat worthy enough of praise. Winning one and runnering up a second? Vincenzo Nibali will be one of a very select group of riders who will be seen as legitimate challengers to Froome in the 2014 Tour de France. Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez can both come away proud; Valverde nabbed the final spot on the podium after his disappointing Tour de France, and he also won the points jersey despite not actually winning any stages. Purito wanted more, but 4th and a beautiful stage victory on Alto del Naranco will look great in his Palmares.

Nicolas Roche entered the race with a stated goal of coming in in the top 5. 5th overall and a stage win felt like a long time coming for the rider who has displayed a lot of talent in the past few years, but never come away with much to show for it. And not to take anything away from winning a stage later on during a Grand Tour, but Roche’s victory came early in the race, against his GC rivals: no gimmes there. AG2R won’t mind Carlos Betancur’s complete anonymity so much given Domenico Pozzovivo’s 6th place overall performance. He quietly notched a pair of Grand Tour top 10s this year without all that much team support.

Thibaut Pinot rolled in 7th overall, dispelling a great deal of doubt after his forgettable Tour de France. He’s definitely gotten back on track: he didn’t seem to struggle on the descents, and he hung with the likes of Nibali and Horner for a good part of many of the hardest climbs. Remember, he’s only 23, and he’s now got a pair of Grand Tour top 10s to his name. With a focused offseason, Thibaut Pinot will hope to build on this late success next year. Another young GC rider who really stood out was Leopold Konig. Nabbing a GT Top 10 at the head of a Pro Continental team against stacked squads like Astana and Movistar is quite the feat. Like Roche, his stage victory was early on in the race, meaning that he had to outclass the best in the bunch to pick it up. And Daniel Moreno (10th) nabs his 3rd Vuelta top 10 in as many year, and perhaps even more impressively, on the heels of a major one-day victory in La Fleche Wallonne, he picked up two early stage wins, and held three different jerseys for a time; he’s following in his team leader’s footsteps, making a name for himself as a killer uphill finisher with the ability to find his way into a Grand Tour leaderboard as well.

Samuel Sanchez will be disappointed with 8th, but most observers didn’t view him as much more than an outside contender coming in. He never seemed to find his form, and it’s starting to look as if his best years are behind him. At least he comes away with more than fellow old guys Michele Scarponi and Ivan Basso–Basso didn’t really look all that bad in this race, but he vacated his 7th overall spot when he abandoned on a nasty Stage 14.

The biggest disappointment of the Vuelta has to be Team Sky. Sergio Henao came into the race as one of the favorites, and Rigoberto Uran was touted as a great second option if things went awry; awry they went, as neither rider was able to keep the pace when the road went up. To his credit, Uran came so close to a victory from a breakaway on Stage 16, but was denied by Warren Bargul at the line. Vasil Kiryienka’s stage win (actually the third career Grand Tour stage victory for the Belarusian, which is the same number that his teammate Bradley Wiggins has) was some consolation, but for all Henao’s potential, he failed to deliver in a big way.

Youth Is Served Winning Stages, and So Is the Rainbow Jersey

Michael Matthews and Warren Barguil have arrived. Matthews, the 22 year old Aussie sprinter, had been having enough success in smaller races this year that I definitely saw big things for him in the Vuelta, and he did not disappoint, winning first on the 5th stage and again on the final day of festivities in Madrid. For the past few years, Orica-GreenEdge has looked to one of his teammates on the sprint stages, especially the ones with hard roads to the finish line, but it looks like the time of Michael Matthews is upon us. Meanwhile, Maximiliano Richeze racked up four top 3 stage performances but failed to come away with a victory, which must be a heartbreak: he really looked like one of the fastest riders in the peloton, and was inches away from winning on multiple occasions. In a similar boat were Tyler Farrar and Gianni Meersman, who both made a habit of lurking around the top 5 on the sprint stages (four times), without ever notching a victory. Meersman gets a pass, as he has already had a great year up to this point, but Farrar ends his year looking desperately for his old winning ways. Clearly he’s still fast, but his only victories in the past two years have come in Continental Tours; the American doesn’t have a contract for next year, and obviously a big win would have helped make his case.

23 year old Warren Barguil took a brilliant win from the breakaway in Stage 13. Then, Barguil did it again on Stage 16 ahead of the immensely talented Rigoberto Uran in a drag race to the line. Taking a victory like that ahead of the explosive Giro and Olympic Road Race runner-up marks Barguil as a name to watch for the future. For his Argos-Shimano squad, it was “No Kittel or Degenkolb, no problem” in Spain this year. FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez and Kenny Elissonde both won mountain stages as breakaway survivors. And in stage after stage, 25 year old Nicolas Edet of Cofidis was constantly leading the breakers over the KOMs: he earned himself the title of King of the Mountains in the process. Seeing a pattern? All in all, France’s 25 and under crowd of Barguil, Geniez, Elissonde, Edet, and Pinot took between them four stage victories, the polka dot jersey, and 7th overall in GC; quite a haul for les Francois after they came up short of expectations in the Tour de France.

Another impressive young breaker was Daniele Ratto, who won a grueling 14th stage that saw mass abandons all by himself on a mountaintop finish.

Zdenek Stybar isn’t exactly young (27), but he’s young to road racing, and the former CX world champ added to his amazing year jumping ahead late with Philippe Gilbert and beating him a photo finish to steal the 7th stage from the sprinters at Mairena de Aljafare.

Fortunately, Gilbert’s long, demoralizing drought of victories in the rainbow jersey ended in the following week when he outsprinted Edvald Boasson Hagen and Maximiliano Richeze to win stage 12. He’s come very close time and time again this year, but a win has eluded him. Outsprinting some of the fastest men in this race to get it meant that he ended his wait in grand style.

Three weeks of racing have finally come to a close, and in the end, the Vuelta was full of surprises for riders both young and old. We were treated to visions of riders who could be around for years to come (riders like Matthews, Stybar, Barguil, Konig, and Pinot), and of riders who finally took long awaited victories (Horner and Gilbert). Up next? The race that so many of these big names were preparing for when they decided to make the trip to Spain: the 2013 UCI World Championships.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Esteban Lamas

September 17, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 18: Where We Stand After Sixteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 17-19

Day 18: GC Shaping Up

The trip to the Pyrenees whittled an already thin list of true contenders down even further. With just three uphill finishes remaining, only three riders are within two and a half minutes of Vincenzo Nibali: Christopher Horner, Alejandro Valverde, and Joaquim Rodriguez. Breakaway riders took impressive victories on Stages 14 (Daniele Ratto), 15 (Alexandre Geniez), and 16 (Warren Barguil again). Attrition dropped Nicolas Roche from his spot near the top (he now sits 3:43 back on Nibali after a trying Stage 14) and it dropped Ivan Basso and many others out of the race entirely on a rainy, cold Stage 15 that saw mass abandons. On Stage 16, as the GC contenders rolled in behind Barguil and Rigoberto Uran (who lost out to Barguil in a photo finish), Nibali looked vulnerable for the first time, losing a little over twenty seconds to his rivals. After the rest day, the road from Calahorra to Burgos provides only on a pair of Cat. 3 climbs, giving Nibali a bit more time to get back any strength he might be missing before the arduous trip from Burgos to the Peña Cabarga, and then the lumpy stage that prefaces the road to l’Angliru.

Stage 17: Calahorra > Burgos | 189km | Medium Mountains

While there are only two categorized climbs, there is a good deal of upward travel in the first 140 kilometers of the stage. The last few days have been for aggressive attackers, and surely Stage 17 will see riders striking out for the long one; but it’s been a long time since the sprinters had a chance to be on camera, and those who have made it this far will fight hard to bring back anyone up the road. The last several kilometers are techinical and include a short but steep spur that will invite further aggression. Michael Matthews and Maximiliano Richeze have looked the strongest to the line so far in this race, if it comes to a bunch sprint. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman, and Fabian Cancellara are strong options as well, given their combined sprinting and soloing abilities. Boasson Hagen’s Team Sky came so close to a victory in Stage 16, and Eddy Bos himself was barely pipped to the line by Philippe Gilbert earlier in the Vuelta; he’ll be highly motivated and he’s very capable in this sort of finish. Juan Antonio Flecha has been a common sight at the Vuelta’s sprint finishes, though he hasn’t come that close to actually winning anything. This finish suits him as well as any.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Maximiliano Richeze | 4. Fabian Cancellara

Stage 18: Burgos > Peña Cabarga | 186km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

The road out of Burgos is much more demanding than the road in. It goes up and over a trio of Category 3s and a hard Cat. 2, and then finishes atop the Peña Cabarga. The summit has seen fireworks before (future Tour de France winner Chris Froome bested Juan Jose Cobo here in 2011). It’s an extremely difficult, 6 km push at an average of 9.2%, and a 20% section in the final kilometer will surely see gaps form late if they haven’t already. With so many lumps early, this stage could be another for a breakaway, as the GC strongmen haven’t seemed too concerned with the prospect of hunting down early breakers. If that happens, watch out for Rigoberto Uran, who was so close to a victory in Stage 16. Amets Txurruka will probably have another go at it, as might Chris Anker Sorensen. Diego Ulissi has been a bit quiet lately, but after some rest, he might have the strength to challenge for the stage victory. Igor Anton, currently in 15th, will probably be allowed up the road if he attacks on the final climb, and he’s managed to keep pace with the GC heavyweights over the last few days, showing great form.

Whether their battles will come behind a successful breakaway is hard to say, but the fight among the red jersey contenders will be fierce. Having smelled blood on Stage 16, Nibali’s rivals will look for a chance to test him again here. The steepness would seem to favor Joaquim Rodriguez. Alejandro Valverde looked good attempting to chase him down on the last day in the Pyrenees. Thibaut Pinot has been very impressive of late, and his fresher legs appear to be paying off. Samuel Sanchez has been coming on strong. Chris Horner looks unbelievable going uphill, and he’s had the help of a very strong Robert Kiserlovski. Nicolas Roche cracked on stage 14, but on Stages 15 and 16 he was looking sharp again. The relatively short length of the climb will not favor Nibali’s climbing style, so he’d better be rested and ready to fight.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Igor Anton | 3. Rigoberto Uran | 4. Christopher Horner

Stage 19: San Vicente de la Barquera > Alto del Naranco | 181km | Medium Mountains

A relatively flat first half gives way to a very lumpy second half: this stage will favor an aggressive, punchy rider with a lot of pop still in his legs after so many miles already traveled through Spain. The day finishes with a roughly 6 km, 4.2% average grade Cat. 2, Alto del Naranco: not tough enough to open up big time gaps in GC, but more than tough enough to put a hard hitting climber in line for the victory. Warren Barguil has to be in the conversation again. Rinaldo Nocentini has come close in a few stages (2nd to Barguil in Stage 13), and the explosive French rider will look to stand out among a field that has been reduced by the tough hills and tough weather by this late point. Bauke Mollema was right behind him on that stage and will be hoping to salvage something from this Grand Tour, and he is a hard finisher uphill. Uran and Ulissi will again be aiming to put their explosiveness to good use. Uran’s teammate Sergio Henao and Lampre’s Michele Scarponi (who has been very active in breakaways recently) could see an opportunity here, and Amets Txurruka will definitely look to be involved in any breakaway proceedings. Should the peloton reach the final climb together, the Katusha duo of Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez will try to best Alejandro Valverde for the day’s victory, and Samuel Sanchez will be gunning for the line as well. Chris Horner has basically attacked on every summit finish, and he could do so again here. Ivan Santaromita, Mikel Landa, and Pieter Serry are other outsiders for the stage win, whether from the breakaway or the peloton.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Rigoberto Uran | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Bauke Mollema | 4. Warren Barguil

September 11, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 11: Where We Stand After Ten Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 11-13

Day 11: Turning Back the Clock

The past few days have proven decisive for a number of outside GC contenders in the Vuelta. Not long after my last update, Dan Martin withdrew with a concussion. In Stage 8, Bauke Mollema lost enough time to put himself out of the conversation, and Roman Kreuziger apparently started to have a heart problem that would, over the coming stages, drop him out of the conversation as well.

“Up-and-comer” Leopold Konig did, in fact, take Stage 8 with a well-timed, well-executed attack. The other top names were close behind. Moreno continued to look strong on a parcours that appeared to be designed perfectly for him and his teammate Joaquim Rodriguez on stage 9. And Stage 10? Perhaps it’s time to finally start believing that Chris Horner is the real deal. I used the vague terms “serious GC showdown” and “riders on elite form” to describe how Stage 10 would play out, but I’ll admit I wasn’t really thinking of the Radioshack veteran: all along I’ve been expecting him to fade, but he hasn’t yet, and he managed to drop everyone on the slopes of Alto Hazallanas on his way to the top. Vincenzo Nibali, however, was not all that far behind and a fair bit ahead of the other contenders, and unfortunately for Horner, a time trial looms. The American took the red jersey back from Dani Moreno, but I fear he won’t wear it long.

Stage 11: Tarazona | 38.8km | Individual Time Trial

It’s an individual time trial with a Cat. 3 climb right at the heart of it, but it’s not so steep as to make me believe that anyone other than Tony Martin is going to win it. He’s the man to beat in all but the most difficult climber-oriented time trials, and betting against him on flatter days and even pseudo-hilly chronos has proven a dangerous decision so far this year. If he can win an ITT in which Nairo Quintana finished ahead of Richie Porte (Stage 6 at the Tour of the Basque Country), he can probably win this. Competition from fellow time trialing superstar Fabian Cancellara will be fierce, and the hill in the middle will help the classics specialist and strong descender, but Spartacus has been doing some hard racing in support of his team leader lately, and will continue to do so. Moreoever, he seems to be focusing more on his mass-start skills than his soloing right now. Like Tony Martin, there are plenty of other time trialing specialists in attendance who have come to the Vuelta with this one stage in mind (though it’s hard to see anyone beating Martin, the odds-on favorite), including Lieuwe Westra, who loves a time trial with a climb or two, Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, and Luis Leon Sanchez. Edvald Boasson Hagen is more than just a TT specialist, but he’s capable of a high placing. I don’t include Tanel Kangert with those other names because I see him as a pseudo-GC name at the moment (he’s 14th overall) and after being a faithful domestique for Nibali all through the Giro, perhaps Astana will give him the green light to do his best in the Vuelta: he seems to have sacrificed some of his time trialing ability for climbing skills this year, but with this profile, things should balance out. If Astana gives him the go-ahead to ride hard for himself, I see him finishing between 2nd and 5th. Of the marquee names for GC, Nibali stands out head and shoulders above the rest. He’s the only rider in the top 10 with an actual chance to win this time trial, as he has become an elite time trialist at this point in his career, which he showed with commanding performances in the Giro. Ivan Basso, Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez (vastly improved in this discipline) will hope to limit their losses to within a minute of Astana’s leader; the Cat. 3 climb should help with that. Roche and Moreno aren’t great against the clock, but they aren’t terrible, and hanging around relatively close to their current positions is a reasonable expectation, though Roche will likely lose his spot on the virtual podium. I expect Pinot, Majka, Pozzovivo, and, yes, Chris Horner to struggle. None of them has the resume to produce anything other than expectations of large time losses here, though, of course, Chris Horner has been blowing up expectations daily. Samuel Sanchez will be excited about the opportunity to gain a chunk of time on his chase for whatever position he is targeting now that he’s no longer a contender for the red jersey; he has (or at least, had) a strong time trial when he is on form.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Vincenzo Nibali | 4. Tanel Kangert

Stage 12: Maella > Tarragona | 164.2km | Flat

After putting up with a few grueling days of climbing and time trialing, the sprinters finally get another day in the (hot Spanish) sun. There is a Category 3 climb to be summitted with more than 70 kilometers to go, but other than that, there isn’t much to keep the fast men from the line. It’s a day for the true sprinters, who must feel cheated after Stybar and Gilbert got the jump on them on the pan-flat Stage 7. Look to some familiar names to stake their claim today, though the dearth of marquee sprint team leaders means that a big bunch of teams have multiple options, and it’s been hard to nail down whom they are favoring in advance. If Orica-GreenEdge is still committed to giving him opportunities, this would be a great day for Leigh Howard, but it’s unclear whether they are just going 100% for Matthews now. It appears that Argos-Shimano favors Janse van Rensburg on the flatter days. Maybe. Nikias Arndt and Ramon Sinkeldam are there, too. Belkin has both Graeme Brown and Robert Wagner, who won the bunch sprint for 3rd on Stage 7. FDJ has Anthony Roux and Geoffrey Soupe. Vacansoleil has been one of the hardest to predict: depsite the presence of ostensibly highly talented sprinter Barry Markus, it has been the immensely mediocre Juan Antonio Flecha who has featured so frequently in the bunch sprints. No longer will Markus be a concern, as he did not finish Stage 10, but the team has sometimes thrown Grega Bole into the mix as well. Andrew Fenn got DQed, ending the sprinting leadership debate at OPQS, at least, though this stage might not be selective enough for Gianni Meersman.

Sky, Garmin, Lampre, Saxo-Tinkoff, and Cofidis seem to have settled on their sprinters in, respectively: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tyler Farrar, Maximiliano Richeze, Michael Morkov, and Adrien Petit. I also think that these are some of the strongest sprinting names in the race right now. Richeze has been 2nd twice, and Lampre wants something to show for this Grand Tour. Former track star Michael Morkov will appreciate the uber flat run into the finish on Stage 12. Petit has been improving. Farrar is still searching for that big win, but he hasn’t been too far off the mark.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Maximiliano Richeze | 2. Adrien Petit | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Michael Morkov

Stage 13: Valls > Castelldefels | 169km | Medium Mountains

An early Cat. 3 and then a sudden, sheer Cat. 1 will challenge those riders who are likely to have done well on the previous stage. The four and a half kilometer climb at 10.6% could cause serious splits, benefitting the breakaway as the heavier riders try to catch back up to those who get over the hump first, but the top of the Cat. 1 is still some 40 kilometers from the finishing town of Castelldefels, and the road is pretty much downhill or flat all the way home, leaving plenty of time for those who have fallen off to play catchup. As the sprinters’ opportunities are very limited now, they’ll work hard to ensure that this thing ends in a sprint. It likely will, though the group that comes to the line might be reduced and fatigued. Sounds like a perfect opportunity for Michael Matthews to pick up a second stage win, or for Meersman or Boasson Hagen to pick up their first this Vuelta. With higher mountains looming, competition will be fierce, and the likes of Richeze, Petit, Farrar, and other bigger fast men will love the finish if they can just get there in one piece.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Gianni Meersman

-Dane Cash

Photo by Tom Ducat-White.

September 4, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 3: Where We Stand After Three Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 4-7

Day 3: Early Fireworks

As expected, the big GC show started right away in the 2013 Vuelta. First, a hotly contested team time trial put some favorites into strong positions (Vincenzo Nibali, and Sky’s Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran) and left others down a little more than they might have liked (Ivan Basso, Michele Scarponi, and Dan Martin). Then, stage two shook up the fight for the red jersey when the lead group dropped heavy hitters like the aforementioned Sergio Henao and Samuel Sanchez, who lost a few minutes on GC, and Carlos Betancur, who put himself completely out of contention rolling in more than nine minutes down. Nicolas Roche led a late attack over the line with other GC outsiders Dani Moreno, Domenico Pozzovivo, and Leopold Konig, and the rest of the big names were close behind. Stage 3 saw some danger moments for a number of riders after crashes and windy conditions caused splits, but things got organized for the final climb. 41 year old American Chris Horner (RSLT) attacked late and the rest of the big names just stared at each other, allowing the veteran to nab the stage victory and the red jersey. Valverde won the sprint behind him and a few small gaps formed on the summit finish, but all of the favorites finished within a few seconds of each other. Now, after a thrilling first three days, the Vuelta turns to four straight days that could potentially be for the sprinters.

Stage 4: Lalín > Fisterra | 189km | Flat

There is only one categorized climb on the menu, but Stage 4 is rather lumpy, enough to spur a breakaway move early. The peloton will fight to reel them in, and the generally downhill/flat stretch of about thirty kilometers leading into the finish will favor the pursuit. Then, the road heads up at roughly 3.5% for the finish at a beautiful promontory (pictured above) that was once the edge of the known world for much of Western Europe. It’s enough to give an advantage to the lighter, more capable climbers of the sprinting crowd, and a bend in the road in final few hundred kilometers will favor a well-marshaled, aggressive squad. Assuming the pack finishes together, this sounds perfect for Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Gianni Meersman. He’s been on fire this year, and his legs don’t have any Grand Tour mileage in them other than what they’ve covered so far this week. BMC will potentially look to set up Philippe Gilbert again, especially after he was unable to threaten in Stage 3. It might not be steep enough for Gilbert to outshine some of the stronger kicks in the peloton, especially with his recent nasty knee injury. Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen would be an obvious pick here were it not for his shoulder injury from the Tour de France; with those concerns, it is harder to say how he will fare. He was dropped from the Sky train in the opening time trial, but he looked okay climbing up the summit finish of Stage 3. Orica-GreenEdge has both Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews, and it seems like they’ll favor the latter here, though it’s never easy to tell with OGE. The finish might be a bit steep for Tyler Farrar, but he’s been very good this year. The two under-the-radar sprinters I tipped in my initial Vuelta preview, Argos Shimano’s Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, could also factor here. If an aggressive rider manages to attack for the win, don’t be surprised if it’s Diego Ulissi, Luis Leon Sanchez, Grega Bole, or the resurgent Anthony Roux. And of course, the uphill finish could see Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, and other punchy, Ardennes-style GC types strike out for bonus seconds.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Philippe Gilbert | 4. Alejandro Valverde

Stage 5: Sober > Lago de Sanabria | 174.3km | Medium Mountains

Another lumpy day, with two Cat 3 climbs and a lot of uncategorized ascending, Stage 5 will also likely see a lot of attacking early. However, the road angles downward again with plenty of distance left, and with one of the few relatively flat finishes in this Vuelta awaiting the peloton at the end of the line, those sprinters who have made it over the hills will be extra-motivated to bring back anyone up the road. The lumps may force some selection, but it seems likely that this stage will go to a sprinter. If OGE decides to support Michael Matthews over Gerrans or Leigh Howard (and, as this is a more difficult stage but not an extremely difficult one, they seem likely to), this is a great opportunity for him. Tyler Farrar isn’t guaranteed to make it, but as few sprinting opportunities as there are in this race, he’ll surely be giving every one of them 100%. Gianni Meersman and (assuming he’s healthy enough) Edvald Boasson Hagen probably won’t have much trouble with the climbing, so they’re sure to challenge. Whomever Argos-Shimano decides to back, Janse van Rensburg or Ardnt, will have a good opportunity as well. Cannondale’s young up-and-comer Daniele Ratto might be in the mix. If BMC decides to support Gilbert for the sprints at the end of every difficult stage, he could be involved here, too. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus, should he manage to finish with the bunch, is a danger if he makes it to the finish with the pack and with his strength, and Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Andrew Fenn is a name to keep in mind as well. Finally, Fabian Cancellara’s goals in this Vuelta are rather unclear, but he might target this stage with its potentially selective early climbs, but flatter finish.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Edvald Boasson Hagen

Stage 6: Guijuelo > Caceres | 175km | Flat

Stage 6 is the flattest stage so far, one that the sprinters will have circled in the road book. There is a very short kick upward not far from the finish line, but it seems likely that the stage will end in a bunch sprint contested by the big names. Tyler Farrar is the first one that comes to mind. Barry Markus of Vacansoleil and Adrien Petit of Cofidis will be eager to sure what they can do, if they haven’t already in the previous two stages. We will probably know the rider that Argos is favoring by this point, so keep an eye on Stages 4 and 5 to get an idea of the direction in which they’re heading in terms of Ardnt vs. Janse van Rensburg. We’ll also probably have a better idea of how Boasson Hagen is doing by this point. As always, Meersman could be in play, or it could be a time for Andrew Fenn. Orica-GreenEdge might go with Leigh Howard here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tyler Farrar | 2. Barry Markus | 3. Gianni Meersman

Stage 7: Almendralejo > Mairena del Aljarafe | 205.9km | Flat

I hate to say it, but with so many consecutive stages that could go to sprinters, I’m running out of things to say about them. Stage 7 is almost certain to end in a bunch gallop, and by this point, if you’ve been watching the previous bunch sprints, you’ll already have a good sense of what is what in this race. It should be the usual suspects here, and it’s probably Farrar’s best shot to win a stage until the Madrid finale. Same goes for Leigh Howard, given OGE’s stated intention of giving Michael Matthews the green light on harder stages. This could be a stage for Andrew Fenn of OPQS, or they could stick with Meersman. You should be familiar with the rest of the names now: Boasson Hagen, Markus, Arndt/Janse van Rensburg, Petit. Watching from home, Theo Bos will rue the low cortisol levels that kept him out of the race.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tyler Farrar | 2. Barry Markus | 3. Leigh Howard

-Dane Cash

Photo by Oscar Anton.

August 26, 2013