Tag: Michal Kwiatkowski

Tour de France 2014: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Carcassonne › Bagnères-de-Luchon – 237.5 km

A flat stage (won by Alexander Kristoff) and a rest day may have given the peloton some time to gather strength, but three tough stages in the Pyrenees await. The first, Stage 16, is the longest day of racing the Tour de France has to offer, 237.5 kilometers from start to finish. The road gets hillier as the stage wears on, punctuated by an HC-rated climb crested with 21.5 kilometers remaining on the day. 11.7 kilometers long at an average gradient of 7.7%, it’s not the hardest Hors Categorie climb in the Tour, but it will be tough on the legs after so many kilometers of racing. From the top, it’s a fast, long, and at some points technical descent towards the finish, only flattening out for about 2 kilometers before the line.

The succession of ups and downs late in the race will make this stage a difficult one for the pack to control, and with two very challenging stages to come, the motivation to do so may not be particularly strong. Stage 16 looks like a great opportunity for a breakaway to stay clear to the line. Whoever wins this stage (regardless of whether that victory comes from the pack or the early move) will have to be a strong climber and a capable descender: the final ascent and the downhill that follows will see some aggressive riding that could decide the day.

As on any breakaway-friendly stage, there is no obvious favorite here, but there are several riders who have the skillset to pick up the win and who could try to get a headstart with a long-distance move. It would be a big surprise not to see Tinkoff-Saxo with a man in the day’s breakaway. Rafal Majka has quickly refound the legs that drove him to such a strong performance in the Giro, and out of the climbing specialists not in GC contention in the Tour de France, he’s one of the very strongest. However, he’s now a legitimate contender for the mountains classification and with plenty of KOM points on offer over the days to come, he may decide to save energy on this long day. If he does hold back from the early move, teammate Michael Rogers might be the one to watch: he put his strong descending skills on display during in his first stage win at the 2014 Giro, and he put his strong climbing legs on display in his second. He is on excellent form right now, finishing the last two mountain stages with the riders at the fringes of the GC Top 10 battle. Nicolas Roche is another great option for the team.

Joaquim Rodriguez will be thinking hard on how he’ll want to play the three stages to come to maximize his ability to contend on the climbs. He’s getting stronger as the Tour goes on, and he will be a favorite if he gets into the breakaway, but he may not be trying to go from that far out on Stage 16. Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are, as usual, nice alternatives for Katusha.

OPQS is another team with options. Michal Kwiatkowski is out of GC contention after a few bad days in the Alps, but he’s had a rest day to recover some energy. He’s a very aggressive rider who could try to get into a long-range move, and though he might struggle to make it up this climb with the GC powerhouses, against the competition within a breakawy, he’d have a fighting chance. He’s an excellent descender and a great sprinter, making him a nice candidate. Teammate Tony Martin is also a very strong descender, and given his impressive engine, he’s less likely to be fatigued after a long day in the saddle. Versatile Jan Bakelants is yet another option.

Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa is almost 13 minutes back on GC, and may have some freedom to go up the road. Frank Schleck is almost two minutes behind him, and while not a great descender, he’s been climbing very well. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi has been active in the breakaways and although he has fallen short so far, he’s shown nice form. His teammate Peter Sagan may actually be one to watch here as well: this final climb is tough, but it’s not so tough that his survival is out of the question. If he makes it up in the lead group, it’s hard to see anyone outmatching him on the long descent or a potential sprint finale. Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, Sky’s Mikel Nieve and Geraint Thomas (or even Richie Porte, if he has recovered some of his strength), Europcar’s Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, AG2R’s Christophe Riblon and Blel Kadri, OGE’s Michael Albasini and Simon Gerrans, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, and Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu are other riders who might like the look of the Stage 16 profile and who could be protagonists from afar.

If this all comes back together before or on the slopes of the Port de Balès climb, expert descender Vincenzo Nibali and fast-finishing Alejandro Valverde will be among the top favorites: the final ascent is tough, but there are hard days ahead with slopes better designed for GC action, and if riders crest the summit in groups, the fight for stage success will be all about the descent and the sprint to the line. Valverde reported mechanical issues during Stage 14, suggesting that his relatively poor showing on the final climb there was not an issue of form. He’s not a bad descender, and his sprint would give him an edge for this stage if he is in the lead group near the end of the day.

It is possible that attacks from some of the strong-climbing riders a bit further down on GC are allowed up the road on the final ascent: in that case, watch out for NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig, who is looking very sharp right now, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, who rarely misses an opportunity to strike for glory. One other rider to keep an eye on is AG2R’s Romain Bardet. With a time trial approaching, he knows he needs to do everything in his power to strengthen his position, and given the well-publicized problems his French rival Thibaut Pinot has with fast descents, don’t be surprised to see Bardet attempt to put Pinot under pressure on Stage 16.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Rogers | 2. Michal Kwiatkowski | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 16, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 21, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Gérardmer › Mulhouse – 170 km

With the peloton content to give the morning breakaway its chance at success, Blel Kadri of AG2R took victory on Stage 8 after a long day out front. Stage 9, the Tour’s second stage in the hilly Vosges region of France, is very likely to set up another breakaway victory. A constant barrage of climbs awaits from the very beginning of the day, with six categorized ascents in the first 127 kilometers. The vertical gain will add up as the journey wears on, with the penultimate categorized climb of 10.8 kilometers at 5.4% serving as a particularly challenging test that could see action among the General Classification contenders. After a long descent from Grand Ballon, there are approximately 20 kilometers of flat to close out the stage.

Stage 9 has the undulating profile that breakaway specialists love to see. Even if the strong teams in the race feel inclined to keep the break on a short leash, they will have a difficult time controlling things as the road constantly alternates between ups and downs. The peloton will hit the foot of a tough Category 2 climb only 3 kilometers into the day, and from there it’s going to be a fierce battle to get into the morning breakaway, given the likelihood of long-distance success. It’s never a certainty that the morning break will survive even on a day like this, and if things do come come together as the stage nears its conclusion there are a few riders who stand out as favorites from the pack, but it seems more likely that the winner of Stage 9 will come from a long-range move.

As with any breakaway-friendly stage, it will be extremely difficult to predict which riders will make it into the successful move. The likeliest protagonists for Stage 9 will be those opportunists who possess the well-rounded skillset to a handle a long day of uphill challenges and fast descents. A quick finish could come in handy given the flat run-in to the line. A number of talented all-rounders come to mind as possible protagonists.

Jan Bakelants of OPQS has a very versatile skillset, and he is particularly adept at getting into the right moves when he sees a chance for long-range success. He did just that in the Criterium du Dauphine this year, winning the fourth stage after spending the day in a sizeable break. This could be his opportunity to pick up a second career Tour de France victory. He is an underrated climber with a few WorldTour GC Top 10s to his name, but he also has an excellent sprint, which will make him dangerous at this finish. Teammate Matteo Trentin could also look to add to his collection of Tour de France victories here; this is a tough profile, but he’s a surprisingly strong climber, and he showed just how good he is in a sprint with his Stage 7 victory over Peter Sagan. And never count out time trialing machine Tony Martin, who, in addition to being the world’s best solo artist, can also climb surprisingly well.

Orica-GreenEdge always has a variety of options for a day like this. Michael Albasini is a rider capable of handling almost any terrain, and he can also sprint with the very best. He is a proven expert at picking the right early move. That array of skills, combined with the excellent form he is showing right now, makes him a good candidate to try something from afar. Simon Gerrans appears to have recovered from his opening stage crash; should he get into the right move, he will be tough to drop, and deadly in a sprint finale. Simon Clarke, a breakaway specialist who won the King of the Mountains competition in the 2012 Vuelta, is yet another option.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, and Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and Ramunas Navardauskas all share an affinity for the hilly days, and all of them are quick in a reduced sprint; any one of them could be looking to get off the front early on Stage 9.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak has shown an ability to hang with some of the top climbers in the peloton in one-week races, but he is hunting stages in the Tour de France. If he gets into the morning break, his companions off the front could have trouble staying on his wheel when the road goes up. Teammate Joaquim Rodriguez, also hunting stages in the race, deserves a mention as well, though he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon won the Alpe d’Huez stage of the 2013 Tour de France and will be looking for further success this year. He has spent a lot of time at the back of the peloton so far, but perhaps he is just saving energy for one climactic move.

On a stage as breakaway-friendly as this, it’s hard to be confident in any list of potential long-range protagonists that doesn’t include every rider in the race, but since naming almost two hundred names wouldn’t be practical, I’ll mention only a few more riders that I think have the right qualities for success: Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Trek’s Jens Voigt, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti are always worthy of a mention when a long-range victory seems likely, while Europcar’s Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, IAM Cycling’s Sebastien Reichenbach, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all strong climbers who could see this as their opportunity for glory. To close out the list, though it’s hard to imagine that any one of them won’t be exhausted after a tough day out front on Stage 8, Simon Yates, Sylvain Chavanel, and Blel Kadri could look to get involved in the break for a second day in a row.

Should the GC contenders decide to put each other under real pressure on the slopes, it is possible that the increase in pace will close down those off the front before the end of the day. If that should happen, the fast finishers still in the pack could be the main beneficiaries in terms of stage-winning glory, as a flat final 20 kilometers will make it hard for any one rider to escape. Some of the aforementioned contenders (those who excel in the sprints) could decide stay in the pack, hoping for this scenario and a chance to battle with the speedier GC types, foremost of whom has to be Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde. Given his impressive finishing kick, he will be a top favorite if this all comes back together before the line. OPQS’s Michal Kwiatkowski may be his only rival in the sprints among the GC contenders, though he struggled on Stage 8, possibly showing signs of fatigue after expending a lot of energy for his and his teammates’ stage ambitions during the first week. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa are also very quick to the line. Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Pierre Rolland don’t have the same closing speed and probably wouldn’t be in the mix in a sprint finish, but they could try to get up and over the final climb ahead of their rivals and then try to maintain a gap to the end.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan gets a final mention all to himself. A lot of things would have to go right for him to contend here, but remember his Stage 3 victory in the 2013 Tour de Suisse; he stuck with Rui Costa, Roman Kreuziger, and Mathias Frank over a Category 1 climb (when even Bauke Mollema and Dan Martin were dropped) to take the win. If there’s one thing Sagan has taught us, it is that he can never be counted out. There are some hard climbs in this profile, but don’t be surprised to see him going for it anyway, even if that means trying to get into the day’s breakaway.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Albasini | 2. Simon Spilak | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 9, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 12, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Tomblaine › Gérardmer La Mauselaine – 161 km

In the Tour’s seventh stage, Matteo Trentin earned his second career Tour de France win on a mostly flat day with a late sting in the tail. Stage 8 is another day of mostly flat roads leading into a late challenge, but this time the sting is a whole lot nastier. After 133 kilometers with only a few minor rollers, the Stage 8 profile suddenly turns savage. First comes the tough Cat. 2 climb of the Col de la Croix des Moinats, 7.6 km at an average gradient of 6%. After a speedy descent comes another Cat. 2 of 3 km at a steeper 7.5%. One more fast downhill leads into the final 1.8 kilometers, where the road kicks up in a vicious 10.3% average gradient 3rd Category climb to the Gérardmer finish. It’s not a long day, but the three late climbs are sure to weed out those who are not at the top of their game.

The early break will likely get a big advantage in the first two hours of racing, and with no chance for the pure sprinters at this finish and mountains on the horizon, the peloton’s chase may be a bit less spirited than we’ve seen on other stages. There is a chance of breakaway success here. Still, this will be the first real opportunity for the climbing specialists to do damage in the General Classification fight, which will probably lead to a real injection of pace from the pack in the last forty kilometers or so, at which point the break may struggle to hold their advantage on the flat run-in to the climbs. As such, this could be the first stage in the Tour that ends in a showdown among the GC candidates (with a few other punchy types likely in the mix as well). Any one of the day’s three uphill challenges could see action, with fireworks guaranteed on the steep final ascent.

With this finale, Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has to be a rider to watch. The winner of the 2014 edition of La Fleche Wallonne is one of most explosive uphill finishers in the peloton, and he has been on top form all year, flashing his brilliance with victory after victory since February. With a chance to pick up time on his rivals, he’s certain to light up these late climbs.

Close behind Valverde at every turn in the Ardennes Classics was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Stage 7 looked like a great opportunity for the versatile Kwiatkowski, but it turned out that he and his team were working for the also versatile Matteo Trentin. Kwiatkowski will have his opportunity on Stage 8. The short climbs are his forte, and he won’t have a problem with the descents that lead into the last climb of the day.

As one might expect on a stage involving a succession of late ascents closed out by a 10.3% climb, Alberto Contador will be a major player as well. The Tinkoff-Saxo leader knows he needs to pick up time on GC at every opportunity. An excellent descender, he may even try to strike out on the first or second categorized climb and attempt to grab an advantage from further out (and this could happen whether the peloton has reeled in the break or not). Contador has been unrivaled on the climbs so far this year, and this steep finish will allow him to turn the screws on his opponents for the yellow jersey of the Tour de France.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez would perhaps be the top favorite on this finish if his form weren’t in question. It is not clear how far along he is in his post-Giro recovery. Still, it’s hard to draw up a final two kilometers more perfect for Purito than these, and now that he’s further behind on GC than Andre Girepel, he’ll have the added benefit of being able to go on the attack without worrying the GC men. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini are other very strong puncheurs who could enjoy that sort of freedom as well; head-to-head against the likes of Valverde this could be too steep for them, but as non-threats for the yellow jersey, they may be allowed off the front if they want to go for it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is further down on GC than he would have hoped, but that will at least grant him more flexibility to strike on Stage 8. It’s not one that necessarily favors him over the other GC types, but if he gets ahead of the pack in a move of non-GC riders, his chances will be good.

Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa and Chris Horner and Belkin’s Bauke Mollema should handle the final slopes well. AG2R’s Romain Bardet has shown some punch at times this year. This will be a good test to see just how strong Sky’s new leader Richie Porte is on the climbs right now. Garmin-Sharp’s Andrew Talansky and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck don’t immediately come to mind on a final climb like this, but both have looked to be on excellent form in the past few weeks.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, AG2R’s Christophe Riblon, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all excellent climbers who are out of the GC picture entirely, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them among those trying something from afar. Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier of Europcar are almost certain to be on the lookout for long-range success on Stage 8. Jan Bakelants of OPQS may be as well. It will be interesting to see if Tinkoff-Saxo puts any of Contador’s elite trio of lieutenants (Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche, and Michael Rogers) up the road. Lastly, Cannondale’s Peter Sagan at least deserves a mention: I highly doubt that he will be in the mix on something as steep as this last climb, but he was among the Top 15 riders in 2013’s La Fleche Wallonne; he may at least give it a shot!

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Alberto Contador | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 8, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 11, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Épernay › Nancy – 234.5 km

With four days for the sprinters (including a Stage 6 that went to Andre Greipel) already on the books in the 2014 Tour de France, one could be forgiven for taking a cursory look at the Stage 7 profile and assuming that it’s certain to lead to another bunch sprint showdown. After all, a pair of Cat. 4 climbs are the only categorized uphill challenges on the menu. However, both of those climbs are crested in the final 20 kilometers of the day, and the second, though only 1.3 kilometers in total length, grades out at an average of 7.9%—and from the top it’s less than 6 km to the line, mostly downhill. What’s more, Stage 7 is 234.5 kilometers from start to finish, making it the second longest stage in the entire Tour de France.

That last bump in the road could inspire the punchier riders to attempt escape close to the finish, especially after such a long day in the saddle. And with a few tough stages ahead and no certainty that the big sprinters will survive late attacks, the peloton could struggle finding the motivation to chase down the day’s breakaway, making a long-distance winner at least a possibility. There are a number of different potential scenarios for Stage 7, making it a hard one to predict. However it plays out, the favorites will be the riders with the endurance to handle all 234.5 km and the versatility and explosiveness to excel in what will likely be a challenging finale.

As is often the case in the difficult hilly stages, Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will be a favorite for victory. If the peloton does bring this all back together before it’s too late, his team will likely have played a role, and more than any other speedster in the Tour de France, Sagan is capable of handling the steep stuff. If anything, he is himself a danger to put in a dig on the climb and then divebomb the descent all the way to the line. In a sprint, he is one of the fastest in the peloton, and it seems possible that the German duo generally regarded as a tier above him might struggle on the last ascent. This could be his best opportunity so far to pick up a win.

Andre Greipel of Lotto Belisol, one of the aforementioned duo, is underrated in his ability to handle difficult days, but this might be a bit too much to ask; there just won’t be a lot of time for anyone who loses ground on the final climb to get back into contention, given the descent that follows. Meanwhile, Lotto’s sprint nemesis Giant-Shimano will be in a tough spot; normally this might be a day for Marcel Kittel to give leadership over to versatile John Degenkolb, but Degenkolb was injured in the Tour’s fifth stage and may not be able to contend. Obviously, if Kittel or Degenkolb manage to hold on for a sprint finish, they will be favorites, but that seems like a lot to ask.

There are a few sprinters other than Sagan who do have a decent shot here, however. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff relishes the extra-long days, and he’s not a bad climber either. He has come close to victory more than once so far in this Tour, and a stage that may see Kittel unable to contest the sprint is his best opportunity to finally get a victory. Ramunas Navardauskas is slotted in as Garmin-Sharp’s sprinter of note, and he is especially adept at fast finishes following tough days. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare normally displays decent uphill ability, but he crashed on Stage 6, and even after finding his way back to the bunch following the incident, he was later dropped before the sprint finish; he may not be at full strength here, though if he is feeling up for it, he’s a danger in a bunch gallop.

Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, and OPQS’s Mark Renshaw have all performed well in the fast finishes so far, but even this does end in a sprint, surviving the difficult day could be too much to ask from them. Meanwhile, versatile quick men like Movistar’s JJ Rojas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, normally fringe contenders, could find themselves a bit better positioned than usual should this come down to a reduced bunch sprint.

With a late climb coming after a long day of riding, we are certain to see plenty of punchy, aggressive riders trying to escape from the pack, or at least attempting to drop the speedsters that we’ve seen over and over again in the Tour’s many sprint stages so far. For these in-betweener, opportunist types, it may be a tough decision whether or not to try for a victory from the breakaway or from the peloton: I think the pack is the smarter choice here, but if a strong enough group makes the early move, it isn’t a given that the pack will reel them in.

Either from the break or the peloton, Orica-GreenEdge has cards to play for Stage 7 in Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini. Gerrans would have been a top favorite for the stage, but I’m not sure he’s back to full strength after his crash in the Tour’s first stage. If he is recovered by the time the peloton sets out from Épernay, though, he will have an excellent chance at victory: the Milano-Sanremo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner loves long, grueling days, and he excels on late climbs. Michael Albasini will be a more than able alternative for OGE. He has been very explosive this year, putting in a nice performance on the steep final climb of La Fleche Wallonne and nabbing sprint victories aplenty in the Tour de Romandie.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS always seems to be in the mix when a profile calls for an explosive finish. If any GC contenders decide to put the pressure on over Stage 7’s late bumps, expect Kwiatkowski to be right there at the end; he’s one of the two or three best sprinters of the General Classification riders. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is another. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema can be very explosive, and he’s underrated in the sprints even on a flat surface. Lampre’s Rui Costa loves to go on the attack on this sort of profile. And, of course, don’t rule out another attempted strike from yellow jersey wearer Vincenzo Nibali, who could see a steep ascent followed by a fast descent as a nice opportunity to pick up more time.

BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet just missed out on victory in the Tour’s second stage when the lead group allowed Nibali to escape, leaving 2nd place as the best possible result for those behind, but he’ll have another opportunity here to make it into a late move on the climb and then attempt outsprint anyone around him in the finish. The rider who broke Van Avermaet’s heart in the Tour of Flanders earlier this year, Fabian Cancellara, will also relish this opportunity: the long, challenging days are his forte, and he will enter Stage 7 with a deadly combination of good form (which he has shown on a number of stages so far) and plenty of motivation (having been unable to pick up a victory just yet).

Other riders who don’t mind a tough day of racing and who could look to escape from the pack, either in the day’s early break or late in the stage, include Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin. Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez might have seen the late ascent as a nice opportunity to make a move, but he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alexander Kristoff | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 7, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 10, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: York › Sheffield – 201 km

After a chaotic finale that saw Mark Cavendish and Simon Gerrans hit the deck very hard and Marcel Kittel ride on to win the day, the opening stage of the 2014 Tour de France is officially in the books. The excitement should continue on Stage 2, and hopefully for more positive reasons. As wild as the finish to the first stage was, for most of the day the riding was pretty tame, as a flat profile led to a mostly controlled journey, but things will be quite different on the second stage. Undulating is too gentle a word for the profile. With seven categorized climbs in the final 90 kilometers, all of them at 6% or greater, and a few uncategorized ascents climb to boot, Stage 2 has the look of an Ardennes Classic. The last four categorized ascents come in quick succession, closing out with the Jenkin Road climb with just 5 kilometers remaining. It is only 800 meters long but at a wicked 10.8% average grade. The barrage of late uphill tests are sure to inspire attacks. And while it obviously isn’t as long as Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it is the second longest stage in the first two weeks of the race at 201 kilometers; anyone still searching for Grand Tour form could get worn down and found out early. The high mountains may still be a ways off, but Stage 2’s journey from York to Sheffield should offer plenty of fireworks.

Given the profile, it seems likely that the stage will come down to either a late attack, or a sprint among the day’s survivors. As early as it is in the Tour de France, the former will be hard-earned, as the GC squads will be determined to deny any opportunists a chance to get ahead. However things play out, the explosive, well-rounded types with the versatility to win either in a late move or from a reduced sprint will be the favorites for victory.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will be the top favorite for Stage 2. Unlike most of his sprinting rivals, he should be able to handle the constant up-and-down, and he has the ability to win the day with an aggressive strike or from a sprint. This stage looks made for his versatile array of talents, and he proved in the Tour de Suisse and again in the first stage that he’s on excellent all-around form right now.

Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans is another top contender, for many of the same reasons, with the biggest question mark being his health following his crash. The 2014 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner relishes a profile like this, with plenty of opportunities to attack, or at least to whittle down the pack. An excellent puncheur, he will be one of the most dangerous men in the peloton if he does decide to make a late move, but don’t underestimate his sprint either: he actually defeated Sagan in a reduced sprint in the 2013 Tour de France. Unfortunately, his hard fall near the Harrogate finish line will cloud his chances for Stage 2; it’s hard to know how well he will feel after such a bad crash. Teammate Michael Albasini could be another option, especially as a card to play on the late climbs.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, one of the most successful Ardennes riders of his generation, is an obvious choice here; for him, motivation could be the determining factor. While he, too, could contend for Stage 2 in a variety of ways, he may be more concerned with staying safe for GC. If he does decide to get into the mix, he will be a strong candidate for victory.

Behind Gerrans and Valverde at Liege-Bastogne-Liege was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. He has all the tools for success, but his form is questionable right now. If he’s feeling good, he will be a contender. GC riders other than Valverde and Kwiatkowski who could find themselves among the favorites if the pack really starts to thin out include Bauke Mollema and Rui Costa.

The difficult profile, and the likelihood of an animated race, will probably be too much for “pure” sprinters Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. (Mark Cavendish may be out of the race with a shoulder injury after his crash; even if he makes the start it seems unlikely that he’ll be capable of contending). Obviously if one of the big sprinters is there at the finish, he will be a favorite, but it will be a big ask. Kittel’s teammate John Degenkolb, however, leads a select group of non-Sagan sprinters who at least have a chance of surviving the difficult day. Also in this group are Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare and, to a lesser extent, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff and Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo. I wouldn’t really call him a sprinter, but fast-finishing Ramunas Navardauskas (3rd on the opening stage) could excel in a reduced sprint as well.

Quite a few riders stand out as potential protagonists for late attacks. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler, and, if he is feeling up to it, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez will like the short, steep challenges that Stage 2 has to offer. Fabian Cancellara, Sylvain Chavanel, Greg Van Avermaet, Jan Bakelants, and Geraint Thomas are all strong soloists with the climbing legs to put in a long distance strike.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Simon Gerrans | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The preview of Stage 3 will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 2, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

July 5, 2014
Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege Post-race Impressions: Ardennes Week in Review

Three Ardennes week contests, three different winners, all of them among the biggest names in the one-day racing—Philippe Gilbert, Alejandro Valverde, and Simon Gerrans are all past Monument Classic winners, so it doesn’t get much bigger than that. Gilbert’s return to form was the big story of the beginning of the week: his win at Brabantse Pijl suggested that he had recovered some of his 2011 abilities, but he confirmed his rediscovery with a resounding victory over the Cauberg at the Amstel Gold Race. The recently revamped parcours looked like it might favor a final sprint, but Gilbert was just too hard to chase down on his beloved terrain. An aggressive Jelle Vanendert was a fine 2nd, and then Gerrans outsprinted Valverde and Kwiatkowski for 3rd in a surprising preview of the Liege-Bastogne-Liege showdown. Joaquim Rodriguez was an unfortunate casualty of Amstel, going down hard in an early crash.

Wednesday’s La Fleche Wallonne ended as it so often does in a climactic uphill sprint. Alejandro Valverde finally came good on months and months (stretching back to 2012) of elite form without a WorldTour victory. Daniel Martin roared back into relevance, nabbing 2nd place. And Michal Kwiatkowski, in 3rd, continued to display the sort of ability that suggests dominance in these sorts of races is not far away.

The grand finale in Liege came down to the final 5 km (just like Amstel and La Fleche Wallonne had); attacks from bigger favorites were quickly reeled in all day, but Giampaolo Caruso and Domenico Pozzovivo jumped ahead as the finish line approached and the chase to bring them back last until the closing moments. Dan Martin looked poised to bridge and possibly pass them just 300 meters from the finish, but he hit the dock rounding the last corner in a heartbreaking stroke of misfortune. Simon Gerrans, Alejandro Valverde, and Michal Kwiatkowski sailed past Martin and then the men up the road, and it was a sprint for victory, with Gerrans taking the win and his second career Monument after Milano-Sanremo. Valverde was 2nd. Kwiatkowski landed on another major podium in 3rd, but going wide around a crashed Dan Martin forced him to play catchup with Gerrans and Valverde at the very end, so I wonder what might have been for him as well.

Takeaways from the Ardennes Classics

There were plenty of surprise performances in the Ardennes Classics, but at the very top were names we’ve seen so often in the past, with a lot of similarity between the three races as well. All three basically came down to the last five minutes. All three were won by big-name one-day stars, over the age of thirty. The podium of the finale race, Liege, was made up of riders who had already stood on an Ardennes podium earlier in the week.

I suppose the results speak for themselves for race winners Gilbert, Valverde, and Gerrans. Valverde, especially, was on his game all week; interestingly, he won the race I would have imagined favored him the least. He has stayed in top-shelf shape for a long while this season, and now he’ll get some well-deserved time off to prep for the Tour de France. 4th, 1st, and 2nd across three Ardennes races is quite a haul for the 34-year-old.

Philippe Gilbert took a proud Amstel victory to put himself back among the favorites in these races but did fade a bit in La Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Still, winning Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold and notching Top 10s in La Fleche Wallonne and LBL are very worthy results, and they suggest that Gilbert has regained both form and confidence after a rocky period. He’s been around the sport for a while, but at age 31 he still has a lot of racing left in his career, and it’s good to see him righting a downward trend.

Simon Gerrans might have come up with a winning strategy for Liege after showing his form with 3rd place at Amstel: he skipped La Fleche Wallonne and recharged his batteries, and was the strongest in the sprint to the Monumental finish. It’s really been an amazing string of years for the Australian rider who started his career as more of a rouleur than anything. He completed the impressive achievement of nabbing stage wins in all three Grand Tours earlier in his career as a breakaway specialist, but he has developed into one of the premier punchy fast finishers in the sport. Since 2012, he has won two Monuments, two Tours Down Under, and two National Championships in Australia, in addition to a host of other victories and some time in the yellow jersey at the Tour de France. He does not appear to be slowing down even as he approaches 34.

In my opinion, Joaquim Rodriguez was the biggest loser of the Ardennes Classics, showing such excellent form at Catalunya only to fall victim to an unfortunate crash-caused injury at Amstel Gold. He had been focused so hard on Liege this year; it’s a big shame he was unable to contest that race. Hopefully, recovers quickly for his other big goal of the season, the Giro d’Italia. Teammate Daniel Moreno was unable to pick up the slack by repeating last year’s success; by most standards he had a decent Ardennes campaign as one of the few riders to be in the Top 10 of all three races, but three consecutive 9th place finishes are a disappointment for last years winner atop the Mur de Huy. Like Purito, Carlos Betancur was on fire early this season and looking set for big things in these races, for which he is so perfectly built, only to be laid low by injury. AG2R did not adjust well in Amstel Gold or La Fleche Wallonne, unable to pick up results there worthy of the year they are having, but they did make up for it somewhat by placing two riders in the Top 10 at Liege. Romain Bardet continued a strong 2014 with a 10th place, looking like a great bet for the future. Domenico Pozzovivo flew in from his 2nd overall at the Giro Del Trentino to pick up 5th on the day, quite a performance. He looks very strong for next month’s Giro d’Italia.

Daniel Martin‘s Ardennes week was quite a roller coast ride, and it ended on a cruel, sour note. He abandoned Amstel with knee issues, raising concerns about his health for the next few races, exploded up the Mur for 2nd at La Fleche Wallonne, quelling concerns about his health, and then just when it seemed he might be in for continued success at Liege, he went down hard in the last seconds of the contest. At least in terms of looking ahead, he does appaer to be very strong for the upcoming Giro d’Italia, but it’s hard to think of anything more demoralizing than what happened to Martin as the race came to a close today. Teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter was a bit of a happier note for Garmin; the 24-year old was 5th at La Fleche Wallonne and 6th at LBL, which is pretty darn impressive, especially given the starpower at the top. He’s been showing the sort of skillset that does well in these races, but until this week, he hadn’t confirmed that promise with results. In Martin (only 27) and Slagter, Garmin will likely feature pretty prominently in the Ardennes Classics for many years to come.

Michal Kwiatkowski was 5th, 3rd, and 3rd, second to only Valverde in consistent top performances across the week. On the one hand, two podiums (including one in a Monument) are pretty unbelievable for the 23 year old, and a confirmation of the amazing talent he has shown so early in his career. On the other hand, I don’t think anyone who has been following the sport closely really needs further confirmation of his talents, and he’s probably a bit frustrated to have come so close so many times (after being 2nd in Pais Vasco). He will take a break from racing before the Tour. Hopefully it will give him time to recharge and be at his best for the sport’s biggest show.

I can’t say I saw Jelle Vanendert‘s strong week coming. Tony Gallopin appeared to be the better option for Lotto leading up to the race after Vanendert’s relatively anonymous 2013, but 2nd at Amstel (ahead of Ardennes winners Valverde and Gerrans) and 6th at La Fleche Wallonne were great results for the Belgian. He’s really an Ardennes specialist, but hopefully we will see him with continued form in more 2o14 races with rolling terrain.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was unable to come up with a Top 10 at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but he delivered his best Amstel and La Fleche Wallonne to date. The 27 year old has rallied wonderfully after a slow start to the season, and his reassuring performances come at a time of great uncertainty for a team that has lost Robert Gesink indefinitely due to a heart health issue.

I found Vincenzo Nibali‘s Ardennes campaign to be very underwhelming. He did not feature prominently in any of the three races. After a fairly anonymous first two contests, I figured he might be saving up for Liege, but he was unable to hold on when things started splitting up at the finish. I think he really wants to win that big one-day race soon, but the Tour de France is probably a bigger target for the 2013 Giro d’Italia winner at the moment. Rui Costa crashed out of LBL after missing out in Amstel and LFW. The World Champ will be very disappointed—he started the season hot at Paris-Nice but he hasn’t managed to deliver results in the past few weeks. He’ll look to the Tour de Romandie as his next target, and with Chris Froome something of a question mark with a chest infection, things could open up for the opportunist rainbow jersey wearer.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo continued to show nice form in 2014: he just barely missed the top 10, coming in 11th, at La Fleche Wallonne, and though he was ultimately unable to make anything happen. he was very active off the front at LBL. At a time when their big name climbers (the Schlecks) are really struggling, Trek must be pleased to have struck gold in young Arredondo. Another youngster who looked sharp was Cofidis’s Rudy Molard, among the top 20 in both La Fleche Wallonne and LBL. Results like that without much team support make him a name to remember in the future.

Share your own thoughts in the comments, or give me a holler on Twitter @VeloHuman! Also keep an eye out early Monday for the Tour de Romandie preview! It should be a great race. Lastly, the Giro d’Italia is right around the corner, and as usual there will be a big overall preview as well as previews of each individual stage, so make sure you tune back in to VeloHuman!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Ed W.

April 27, 2014