Episode 65: Milan-San Remo 2017 Pre-race Show
With Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico in the books, it’s time for La Classicissima, Milan-San Remo. John Degenkolb joins the podcast for a comprehensive pre-race show.
The Recon Ride podcast teams up with Cyclingnews to preview the first Monument Classic of 2017.
Photo by Martin Mystère (CC).
The 107th edition of Milano-Sanremo gets underway Saturday. 291 kilometers of racing through north-western Italy, the event is a classic in every sense of the word, but unique among the classics in its appeal to sprinters and hardmen alike.
This year’s Milano-Sanremo route sticks to the recent formula: the first 235km feature only one climb, the Passo del Turchino, and then comes a succession of small ascents sure to launch attacks. The two key climbs are the Cipressa, 5.6km with a 4.1% gradient (summitted just over 21km from the finish) and the subsequent Poggio, a little under 4km at a little under 4% (summitted a little over 5km from the finish).
The race concludes on the iconic Via Roma, with a long finishing straight that usually treats fans to a high-speed showdown.
The Poggio and Cipressa spring attacks every year, but neither climb is hard enough to really favor the escapees. It’s certainly a possibility that someone aggressive can jump clear here, but the bunch kick specialists seem more likely to thrive—in particular, those bunch kick specialists with the endurance to ride for six hours while keeping a sprint in the tank.
2015 winner John Degenkolb fits that bill, but injury has forced him to miss out on the race; he won’t be defending his crown Saturday, leaving the title open for the taking.
2014 winner Alexander Kristoff will be in attendance. He narrowly missed out on the win last year when he opened his sprint far too early, but still managed to come in second. A proven performer at this distance who has looked sharped so far in 2016, Kristoff will have the eyes of the whole peloton on him when the riders roll into Sanremo.
Peter Sagan has come close here in years past and seems like a lock to do so again this year, but he might not have the top-end speed to compete on this parcours. Plus, the distance may get to him—he still has yet to take a victory in a Monument Classic. For Sagan, it will be important to drop or get clear of the likes of Alexander Kristoff.
Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge found himself on the podium in 2015 and should have only gotten better since then. The 26-year-old has yet to take that big one-day win and he is probably just a tad behind Kristoff in the speed department, but he has looked very strong so far in 2016. Former winner Simon Gerrans should be a strong ally.
That trio looks to be a cut above the rest if this come downs to a sprint, but there are quite a few others who could be in the mix.
Fernando Gaviria is a hot name right now given his strong results so far this year and his great top-end speed, but it’s really, really hard to win Sanremo without having ever raced a big classic. If he’s not up for this, Etixx does have Tom Boonen on the squad. Nacer Bouhanni is another sprinter who can never been ignored, though this is a very difficult race that might be too much for the Frenchman who has never been a huge classics star.
Ben Swift, Elia Viviani, Arnaud Demare, Niccolo Bonifazio, and Giacomo Nizzolo are others who should be to hold their own in a sprint.
Fabian Cancellara will be among those hoping to deny the sprinters their shot at the win. He has won Milano-Sanremo in the past and proved his form in the Tirreno-Adriatico time trial. It won’t be easy for him to escape the bunch, but he’ll probably try.
Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who will probably need to break free from the peloton to make something happen here, but if his early season results are any indication, he has all the form in the world right now. He’s also got a lot of speed for a reduced sprint.
Edvald Boasson Hagen is yet another versatile guy who has looked strong this season, and he brings the complete package with his ability to both solo and sprint. Dimension Data teammate Mark Cavendish, a former winner here, has said that Boasson Hagen will be the one to watch.
Vincenzo Nibali will almost certainly make some kind of late attack in this race. His defending skills will give him an edge if he can escape the peloton on the Cipressa or the Poggio.
Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, and Sep Vanmarcke are others who could try to take advantage of the late climbs to make something happen.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Greg Van Avermaet, Vincenzo Nibali, Fernando Gaviria, Nacer Bouhanni, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Mark Cavendish
Episode 34: Milano-Sanremo 2016 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes a look at what’s to come in Milano-Sanremo, the first Monument Classic of the year.
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Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano talk route, favorites, and big storylines ahead of “La Classicissima,” Milano-Sanremo—with an assist from Gregor Brown, expert on all things Italian cycling.
Photo by Daniel70mi Falciola (CC).
Milano-Sanremo, the first one-day race on the 2015 WorldTour and also the first “Monument Classic” of the season, has almost arrived! The grueling event, which will take riders from Italy’s Lombardy region to its Ligurian coast this Sunday, combines an overlong race distance with a few topographic features along the way, and often a sizeable dose of unpleasant weather. Even in a sport that prizes toughness, Milano-Sanremo demands grit and endurance on another level, which is why a big reason why its list of winners includes some of cycling most legendary hard men (one of the many topics discussed in the Recon Ride pre-race show, which you should also check out).
Though Milano-Sanremo has undergone a number of route changes in the past few years, the 293-kilometer route of the 2015 edition is similar to that of the 2014 edition (lacking a few of the climbs often planned for this race), with some alterations in the final kilometers. The peloton will set out from Milan and enjoy mostly flat roads for over a hundred kilometers. The pavement angles upward for the long, low-gradient climb of the Passo del Turchino a bit before the midway point, and that ascent is followed by a fast descent towards the coast.
From there, it’s still over a hundred kilometers along the Mediterranean in the direction of San Remo. Things stay flat for a while, but around kilometer 240, the peloton will start to hit a few small bumps, leading into a pair of more difficult late climbs likely to break up the peloton before the finish. First comes the Cipressa, 5.6 kilometers at a 4.1% average gradient. The riders will reach the top with a little over 20 km to go, take on a fast descent, and then speed over flat roads until they hit the foot of the Poggio climb. 3.7 kilometers at 3.7%, the Poggio does have a few steep sections (one stretch of 8%), and its otherwise unimposing gradient is of course made much more intimidating by the fact that the riders won’t reach the climb until they’ve already ridden 280 kilometers. The top of the Poggio is 5.5 kilometers from the finish, and followed by a fast descent that doesn’t even out until there are only 2.3 kilometers to go. From there, it’s a flat run towards the finishing straight on the Via Roma, a classic conclusion to Milano-Sanremo that has returned after many years of being left out of the route. With the reintroduction of the Via Roma, the finish line in this year’s race is almost a kilometer closer to the bottom of the Poggio than it was last year.
As of the day before the race, the weather forecast calls for some rain, though at the moment it seems the peloton may escape the torrential downpours common in the area this time of year.
Given the parcours, the likeliest outcome for Milano-Sanremo 2015 would appear to be a sprint showdown among the more versatile quick men of the peloton. The late climbs will give the opportunists a chance to try to get up the road and stay clear for the victory, and a few riders stand out as particularly likely protagonists in that scenario, but it won’t be easy to hold of the charging pack on these relatively low gradients. On the other hand, there are a few pure sprinters who might be favorites in any other high-speed finale but who might struggle here after such a long day.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is the defending champion, the victor of the 2014 edition in a bunch sprint that saw him well ahead of several very speedy finishers. Kristoff’s ability to survive the grueling distance without losing too much of his kick was crucial to his win over the other sprinters last year, and it remains a strong reason to expect big things from him again this year. Kristoff also has the experienced Luca Paolini to help him navigate the day’s difficulties. He has been in excellent form all season, winning sprints in several stage races, and that only makes him appear a stronger candidate here. The one question mark for Kristoff is whether he’ll be close enough to the front of the race as the Via Roma approaches. The reduced distance between the bottom of the Poggio descent and the finish line will give Kristoff less time to regain ground if he loses position on the last climb. Kristoff is not a bad climber, for a sprinter, but there are other quick men who can go uphill more comfortably, and they look to be Kristoff’s biggest challengers should this come down to a sprint.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan has been close to success in this race before, but he has come up short at the line. Gerald Ciolek (surprisingly) denied him of a victory in a reduced sprint in 2013, and although he came to the line with the main pack in 2014, he was a nonfactor in the sprint. The altered finish may benefit Sagan, whose climbing legs set him apart from the other quick men. More so than most, he is capable of launching a late attack on the Poggio, or at least holding the wheel of someone who does. If some of top sprinters in the peloton have faded by the time the finish nears, Sagan will be in a prime position to pick up his first Monument win.
Another sprinter with capable climbing legs making the start is Giant-Alpecin’s John Degenkolb. His 2014 MSR campaign was ruined by a late puncture, but soon after, he took 2nd in Paris-Roubaix, proving that distance is not a problem for him. He has continually improved in the top speed department over the last few years, and even against the biggest-name sprinters in the world he can hold his own; when a long day and a late climb enter the equation, Degenkolb becomes even more dangerous. He hasn’t quite had the results he would have hoped for coming into the race, racking up a number of 2nd-places to go with one win early in the season in Dubai, but if he is timing his peak right around now, Degenkolb will be a great candidate for victory.
Movistar’s Juan José Lobato sports an excellent combination of climbing legs and sprinting prowess, and he has used that skillset to pick up several wins already this season (denying Degenkolb on multiple occasions). He will hope to build on his 4th-place here last year, and with the form he has shown so far in 2015, that seems like a real possibility. Should Movistar feel that Lobato’s bid is in doubt near the end of the day, the team could try to send Alejandro Valverde up the road on one of the two late climbs.
Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge has a similarly fine-tuned skillset combining climbing legs and a vicious finishing kick. His Paris-Nice victory suggests that the form is there as well. For Matthews, the main question mark is whether he can handle the distance. He doesn’t really have any results to speak of in overlong races. He could certainly change that at this year’s Milano-Sanremo, but it will be a foray into new territory.
Mark Cavendish headlines a collection of elite pure sprinters in attendance who will hope that their explosiveness is not too diminished by the time the peloton reaches the finish in San Remo. Cavendish has of course won this race in the past (in 2009) but it was a much younger Mark Cavendish taking the victory then. On last year’s parcours, similar to this year’s, Cavendish was with the main pack at the end of the day, but was unable to come away with more than a Top 5 after the long journey from Milan. With the Via Roma finish coming closer to the bottom of the Poggio, Cavendish will have to work even harder to maintain a strong position and his energy in the finale, making his candidacy as a top favorite questionable despite his legitimate claim to the title of fastest field sprinter on the startlist. Etixx-Quickstep does have alternatives on the roster in Michal Kwiatkowski and Zdenek Stybar, both on blazing form and capable of putting in a strong attack on a late climb in a one-day race.
Like Mark Cavendish, André Greipel is another powerful pure sprinter hoping to survive the long day with his strong kick intact. Coming off a sprint stage win at Paris-Nice, Greipel clearly has the sprinting form to contend in a bunch gallop, and in fact, he has made it a stated goal of this season to finally pick up a big one-day victory after years of near misses. If his pursuit of such a target has led him to improve his power and endurance, he will be a real contender here. Lotto-Soudal may look to Tony Gallopin as a second card to play near the finale.
The very long list of other quick men with a chance in a potential sprint, all of them with varying levels of versatility, includes Cofidis’s Nacer Bouhanni, the MTN-Qhubeka duo of Gerald Ciolek and Edvald Boasson Hagen, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, Sky’s Ben Swift (3rd last year, though entering the race with uncertain form this year), Cannondale-Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, Lampre-Merida’s duo of Niccolo Bonifazio and Davide Cimolai, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, and Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett.
Fabian Cancellara headlines the list of riders who could be looking to jump clear of the peloton in the final few kilometers. This parcours, without some of the uphill challenges of past editions, will make it very difficult for anyone to get away from the pack, but if anyone can do it, Fabian Cancellara is a prime pick. His time trial victory in Tirreno-Adriatico suggests that he is in formidable soloing shape at the moment, and he has done a great deal to work on his sprint this year should he come to the line with a small group. Cancellara was a surprising 2nd in last year’s bunch sprint, suggesting that he’s even a danger if he can’t shed the pack on the Poggio or the Cipressa. Having landed podium results each of the last four years, another strong placing seems practically guaranteed this year. Giacomo Nizzolo, fresh off a GP Nobili victory, offers Trek another option.
BMC’s duo of Philippe Gilbert and an on-form Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Sky’s Geraint Thomas and Ian Stannard, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, and Lampre-Merida’s Pippo Pozzato and Rui Costa are other riders to keep an eye on when the attacks start to fly around the Cipressa and the Poggio.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, JJ Lobato, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet, Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Michael Matthews
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis of the race, and don’t forget to listen to the Recon Ride pre-race show for plenty more on the year’s first Monument. Check back soon for previews and roadside coverage of the upcoming Volta a Catalunya!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Martin Mystère.
Episode 4: Milano-Sanremo 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on the first Monument Classic of 2015.
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The first WorldTour one-day event on the calendar and the first “Monument” of the season, Sunday’s 293-kilometer ride from Milan to San Remo gives the Recon Ride podcast plenty to discuss. Will Alexander Kristoff defend his title? Can Peter Sagan finally get that marquee victory? Will an Italian rider show up to contend in a major Italian Classic? VeloHuman and Cyclocosm team up to cover all the major storylines.
Photo by Martin Mystère.
Takeaways from La Classicissima di Primavera 2014Milano-Sanremo 2014 is in the books! The VeloHuman race preview noted that whoever won this race would truly have to earn his glory, and after 300 rain-soaked kilometers, I’d say he did. The biggest takeaway from this race is obviously that Alexander Kristoff is capable of pulling off the big win. If you’ve watched many bike races in the last year, you probably already knew that the Katusha sprinter is the real deal. If you read this particular site, you’re definitely aware: in the end-of-2013 thoughts published in November, VH said, “Speaking of quick hardmen, Alexander Kristoff gets a paragraph of his own: he built on a strong 2012 (in which he took an Olympic Bronze Medal) with top 10s in three Monument Classics and his first WorldTour level win in the Tour de Suisse (besting Peter Sagan on a tough day that ended in a sprint). He has established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.” I’d say he’s made good on that promise. The number of major news outlets calling him a total surprise was a bit shocking to me. He was among the top 15 or so with the bookmakers, he was one of my Top 10 for this race, and every other preview site I read named his name, so he didn’t exactly come from nowhere. Still, that big win was something that seemed to constantly elude him. His Tour de Suisse stage win last year was his very first WorldTour win. With Sunday’s performance, we can be a bit more confident that Kristoff really does have that killer instinct required to pull of the victory (it wasn’t close at the line). He’s got to be viewed as a favorite in sprint finishes over the next few weeks of classics-riding. Luca Paolini also deserves some serious praise for the job he did keeping the pace high and guiding Kristoff over the obstacles on the way to the finish in Sanremo. Katusha, known for their climbers, has done a commendable job prepping for the spring classics, and I think we can look forward to more from them in the near future.
The other big takeaway, or at least, the second biggest news item, is that Peter Sagan didn’t win. Not only did he not win, he wasn’t even in the top 5, rolling in 10th. Granted, he sort of gave up at the very end of the sprint after it was clear that he was a bit too far behind and boxed in as well, but no matter how you slice it, he didn’t look like he had it in him to make the podium. It’s a disappointment for him, but I am not going to read too much into it just yet. While Sagan was the favorite for the race, he was by no means a lock. The removal of the big climbs at the end put a dent in his chances at dropping other sprinters, and the length of the race was a bit longer than the sorts of contests Sagan has proven he can win. His form may also be a tad below what it was in last year’s race. All this to say: while I think it will be a blow to morale for Sagan to come away from the race without a win or even a podium spot, I will still have him among the favorites at E3, Gent-Wevelgem, and the Tour of Flanders (which may be his true goal this season), races that may provide more launching pads for victory, and fewer miles to wear him down.
Speaking of all those races that Fabian Cancellara will be another favorite in: Spartacus nabbed a surprising second place at MSR by being the second best sprinter after 300 kilometers. Despite the presence of riders who tend to be faster to the line, Cancellara’s otherworldly endurance left him enough in the tank to land himself in the runner-up position. He seemed pretty frustrated after the race, but I’m not really sure there could have been a better outcome. I was quite impressed that he even managed a 2nd place: with no Pompeiana climb, it was always going to be very hard for Cancellara to get away. I’d say his outlook is pretty good for the next few weeks.
Ben Swift was something of a revelation in this race, nabbing 3rd. He’s had some high-level road wins in his young career, but injury has gotten in the way of his pursuit of victory in the past. In a race that one might have expected Team Sky to be riding for Edvald Boasson Hagen, Swift shone as the best rider in black and blue on the day, and he delivered for Sky with a podium-level sprint at the end of a very long day at the office. At the moment he seems scheduled to ride Pais Vasco, which may offer a few opportunities for him to put his versatile skillset on display. Boasson Hagen, meanwhile, seems to struggle in this race, so I am not sure what to make of his fading on Sunday in terms of judging his form leading into the cobbled classics.
John Degenkolb will be left wondering what might have been, after a late puncture ruined his shot at glory. Fortunately, we will get to see him again soon on the cobbles. Mark Cavendish will be disappointed that he didn’t get the win despite being involved in the bunch sprint at the end, but as Kristoff pointed out after the race, a sprint after 300 km is quite different from one after 200. Andre Greipel stated he had both cramps and mechanical troubles at the end of the race. Gerald Ciolek got the rain and the bunch sprint he probably wanted, but couldn’t manage more than 9th (though, I’d rate that as a moderate success, as I didn’t even expect that). Juan Jose Lobato took up JJ Rojas’s mantle, nabbing 4th for Movistar. It’s a good result for him, and he’s off to a pretty good year with some strong finishes so far. Sacha Modolo was another of the VeloHuman Top 10, and he finished right around where I expected. Like anyone who came to that finish line after Kristoff, he’ll probably be disappointed, but a top 10 in MSR is a pretty good sign of ability going forward. Zdenek Stybar pulled a fine 7th place while also working for Cav, as he continues to make his case for inclusion among the favorites in the spring races for serious hardmen. With more climbing and more cobbles to come, he’s going to be mentioned up there with the Cancellaras, Sagans, and Boonens as a contender when the peloton takes on the big classics in Northern Europe.
Lastly, a chapeau to Vincenzo Nibali. I don’t think there was any way he could win this race, given the lack of significant inclines, but he tried and made the race exciting with a solo attack and divebomb descent. Hopefully, next year’s route will be known further in advance, giving the top riders time to decide on whether to attend based on what the road will actually look like, and whether it will really suit their strengths.
If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the VeloHuman Volta a Catalunya 2014 preview! The race got underway this morning, with Luka Mezgec winning a sprint to the line, and the next few stages look like they’ll be pretty action-packed. I will be live-tweeting analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. And of course, VeloHuman’s E3 Harelbeke preview is coming soon, so be sure to check back in a few days for more!
-Dane Cash
Photo by brassynn.