Episode 8: Paris-Roubaix 2015 Pre-race Show The Recon Ride gears up for Paris-Roubaix, the “Hell of the North,” taking a look at the history of the race, this year’s parcours, and the many riders who could make things interesting on Sunday.
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Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm cover the many storylines of Paris-Roubaix in the latest episode of the Recon Ride, which also features interview audio from Bradley Wiggins, Geraint Thomas, and Tyler Farrar.
The conversations among journalists and fans at Saturday’s Paris-Roubaix team presentation mostly focused on the Classics brilliance of Alexander Kristoff, the uncertainty about the chances of Bradley Wiggins in the race, and the odds of another Etixx misstep, but beyond these select few conversation-starting top favorites, there are twenty-five teams and two hundred riders in total taking on Paris-Roubaix. From the cockpit of his Argon 18, Scott Thwaites will “enjoy” the same bone-rattling cobblestones as everyone else in the Queen of the Classics, but he will view this race from the perspective of a wild card invite and first-time Roubaix rider. VH caught up with Scott ahead of the race to get a sense of what this Monument Classic looks like from his vantage point.
VH: You’ve just ridden the always challenging Tour of Flanders, and now it’s onto another grueling day on the cobbles. How are you feeling right about now?
ST: It’s obviously another big day out, it’s pretty tough, and in Roubaix the cobbles are worse. It’s going to be a hard day so we’ll need to all work together and try to do the best we can.
VH: Bora-Argon 18 (or it’s previous incarnations as NetApp) has received wild card invites to Roubaix for several years now. When that is your avenue for getting into a race, is there any pressure to honor the invite and let people know that you deserve the spot.
ST: Yeah I guess you’ve got to sort of do that and thank the organizers for inviting you as well. The sponsors, they put the money in and they want to be shown on the biggest stage. These races are what it’s all about really, the Tour, Roubaix, Flanders, the other Monuments, so you’ve really got to do the best you can as a team and get yourself out there. It’s not all about getting the Top 10. It’s also just getting the coverage. Being in the main breakaway is a big goal for a lot of the small teams, the teams that maybe don’t have someone that can get there at the finish. At Flanders we had a guy in the small front break for most of the race, which was great for the team.
VH: That being said, what’s the team planning to do in pursuit of those goals?
ST: Well like I said, It’s about getting someone in the break, that’s the main thing because then we get a bit more publicity for the sponsors and for future invites. If we animate the race, if you use that word, then that helps for future years, so that’s probably the main goal for the team, and then I guess just trying to get the best rider as far as possible in the lead group and just see how they do from there. If he can get a decent result than that’s a bonus.
VH: Is there a particular result the team would consider a success here?
ST: I don’t really know for this race. . . . Can’t really put a number on a position or anything.
VH: What about you personally, as a first-time Roubaix rider—what are you hoping to come away with on Sunday?
ST: I’d like to see the finish, that’s obviously a good start, it’s always good for your development, if you can get to the finish in the biggest races, you get the miles in your legs, you get experience learning the course a bit better and all of that helps in future years. For me, to see the finish is the goal, but I can’t let that take over for the job I have to do on the day, because if it comes to it and I have to ride on the front and do a role in the middle of the race for whoever the best guy on the team is, then that will come first and then finishing will come after that.
VH: Jan Barta, one of your main riders for these races, is out with an illness. A number of teams are experiencing something similar, losing leaders and scrambling to come up with options. What’s that do for a squad psychologically?
ST: I guess it gives more teams a bit more confidence that their top guy can win the race, so maybe they sort of take on the race in a different approach. . . . More people feel like the race is open so it’s there for the taking, and I guess you might see different teams trying to control the races whereas before it might have been Etixx and Trek that had the two main guys in the race. I think we saw that in Flanders where Sky tried to control the race because Geraint [Thomas] was a strong favorite. I’m guessing that will happen also in Roubaix, probably with Sky again with Wiggins, they’ll look to try to take the race and control it.
ST: Are the Cobbled Classics a goal for you personally in your career?
VH: Definitely, the Classics is what I want to do in the future and what I want to be good it, but I think especially in the Classics, it takes a few years to get to that level. You obviously get the odd person that comes every few years that just sort of is able to do well from a young age, but generally it takes guys into the late twenties to learn the roads, build up the strength, and get everything as a package that you need to be a top Classics rider. Because I’m British, I follow the British guys like Stannard and Thomas, and you’ve seen them in the past few years really start to come to the front in these races. They’ve been working on that for the last three or four years at least, if not longer, to try to get into that position. Obviously for me, this is my second Classics season really, second Flanders, second Gent-Wevelgem and it will be my first Roubaix, so I’ve still got plenty of years to sort of learn the routes and the racing style and everything. But if every year I can progress deeper into the races, hold the front group for longer and longer, then there will come a point where I’ll be in the race when it rally matters and that’s the goal.
VH: And is team leadership in these races a part of that goal?
ST: Yeah definitely. I’m not far off at the moment. Probably I could do with a Grand Tour to build up some strength, I think that’s next in my development if I could get a Grand Tour in my legs that would also help for the future. Each year I’m learning the roads more and I’m learning where the decisive parts in the race are, not only the winning splits but all the splits before that where you can get caught out, so I’m learning the right position to be in on certain climbs and things like that. So that’s all looking good for the future and that’s all knowledge that I’ve got now that I can put into action next year and in the future.
VH: Are you picking up any knowledge from veterans of these races?
ST: I work with Jeremy Hunt, he’s my trainer and he was obviously very experienced in the Classics, and he was a guy that was up there in the key parts of the races and he was able to get into the front groups. And I think it’s somebody like that that you really need to learn off, because you could have done the race five times but if you’ve never made the front split, then you can’t really tell anyone how to make the front split. So it’s learning off of someone who’s been there, been in the thick of the action, and I think Jeremy has been a really big help for me in all of the races, not only in the big ones like Flanders but in the smaller ones like Nokere [Koerse], things like positioning for the sprint, he’s given me a lot of advice for that and it’s certainly helped.
VeloHuman chatted with some of the riders taking on the Tour of Flanders at the startline in Bruges to get some insider insight on the way the 2015 Ronde might play out.
John Degenkolb (Giant-Alpecin)
We finally have good weather today. Does that work in your favor?
I think it’s in my advantage and I like it when we don’t have super bad conditions. It’s good, I like it.
How does absence of Fabian Cancellara affect the way Giant-Alpecin will ride this race?
Fabian was always like an orientation point in the race, so it will not make it easier, for sure. For everybody, now we have to make our own race, and I’m actually pretty sad that he’s not here, and I hope he’s getting fine again.
Do you think you can beat Kristoff again if this comes down to a sprint?
I think so. That would be the perfect situation but we will see. It’s a hard race, it’s a long race, and it definitely won’t be a sprint like in Sanremo.
Hugo Houle (AG2R La Mondiale)
How do you see the race playing out scenario-wise?
Well for sure it’s going to be a small group, maybe one, two, four, a group of ten guys maximum at the end. I think it’s more open because Cancellara and Boonen are not there. So it’s going to be an interesting race, and it’s going to be funny to see who is going to take control, and maybe a group can go a long way from the finish and stay ahead because you don’t have one team controlling.
How’s the AG2R Morale heading into this race?
It’s pretty good team morale. I think we’re all motivated and will try to do our best. We’re not the big contender but that makes us stress-free and we’ll try to get a result that will be good for us.
Tyler Farrar (MTN-Qhubeka)
How is the team holding up with Edvald Boasson Hagen sidelined by a collarbone injury?
You never want to see one of your teammates get hurt so that’s never good. He was really our leader for the Ronde and for Paris-Roubaix next weekend. It’s definitely a blow to the team’s strategy but that’s sport and we just have to deal with it and come up with a Plan B.
What is Plan B?
Today I think Gerald [Ciolek] is going really well. The last few races he’s really been climbing strong. We hope he’ll make the final selections and be in a small group that sprints for a podium or even the victory.
What’s your role today?
We’ll see. I don’t think I’m going bad either so I’ll try to stay pretty quiet early on and hide a bit, and try to be the backup guy today. And if we don’t need a backup guy, I’ll see if I can lend him a hand in the final hour of the race.
We finally have decent weather! Thoughts?
Finally! It makes me a lot happier. It’s been a pretty rough Classics weather-wise and that really changes the dynamics of the race. When you get those horrible days like we had last week, it becomes more of an attrition thing. When you have this good weather, people tend to race a bit more aggressively in the finale, so the race tends to be a bit more explosive I think.
Episode 7: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Pre-race Show The Recon Ride takes on Belgium’s biggest race, the Tour of Flanders, with plenty of insider insight from a few people likely to play a major role in the event.
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VeloHuman and Cyclocosm join forces again to present the Recon Ride Ronde van Vlaanderen Pre-race Show, with more insider knowledge than ever, thanks to interviews with race favorites Sep Vanmarcke and Geraint Thomas and EQS CEO Patrick Lefevere.
Milano-Sanremo, the first one-day race on the 2015 WorldTour and also the first “Monument Classic” of the season, has almost arrived! The grueling event, which will take riders from Italy’s Lombardy region to its Ligurian coast this Sunday, combines an overlong race distance with a few topographic features along the way, and often a sizeable dose of unpleasant weather. Even in a sport that prizes toughness, Milano-Sanremo demands grit and endurance on another level, which is why a big reason why its list of winners includes some of cycling most legendary hard men (one of the many topics discussed in the Recon Ride pre-race show, which you should also check out).
The Route
Though Milano-Sanremo has undergone a number of route changes in the past few years, the 293-kilometer route of the 2015 edition is similar to that of the 2014 edition (lacking a few of the climbs often planned for this race), with some alterations in the final kilometers. The peloton will set out from Milan and enjoy mostly flat roads for over a hundred kilometers. The pavement angles upward for the long, low-gradient climb of the Passo del Turchino a bit before the midway point, and that ascent is followed by a fast descent towards the coast.
293 kilometers in total, the Milano-Sanremo parcours becomes more and more difficult near the finish line.
From there, it’s still over a hundred kilometers along the Mediterranean in the direction of San Remo. Things stay flat for a while, but around kilometer 240, the peloton will start to hit a few small bumps, leading into a pair of more difficult late climbs likely to break up the peloton before the finish. First comes the Cipressa, 5.6 kilometers at a 4.1% average gradient. The riders will reach the top with a little over 20 km to go, take on a fast descent, and then speed over flat roads until they hit the foot of the Poggio climb. 3.7 kilometers at 3.7%, the Poggio does have a few steep sections (one stretch of 8%), and its otherwise unimposing gradient is of course made much more intimidating by the fact that the riders won’t reach the climb until they’ve already ridden 280 kilometers. The top of the Poggio is 5.5 kilometers from the finish, and followed by a fast descent that doesn’t even out until there are only 2.3 kilometers to go. From there, it’s a flat run towards the finishing straight on the Via Roma, a classic conclusion to Milano-Sanremo that has returned after many years of being left out of the route. With the reintroduction of the Via Roma, the finish line in this year’s race is almost a kilometer closer to the bottom of the Poggio than it was last year.
As of the day before the race, the weather forecast calls for some rain, though at the moment it seems the peloton may escape the torrential downpours common in the area this time of year.
The Contenders
Given the parcours, the likeliest outcome for Milano-Sanremo 2015 would appear to be a sprint showdown among the more versatile quick men of the peloton. The late climbs will give the opportunists a chance to try to get up the road and stay clear for the victory, and a few riders stand out as particularly likely protagonists in that scenario, but it won’t be easy to hold of the charging pack on these relatively low gradients. On the other hand, there are a few pure sprinters who might be favorites in any other high-speed finale but who might struggle here after such a long day.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is the defending champion, the victor of the 2014 edition in a bunch sprint that saw him well ahead of several very speedy finishers. Kristoff’s ability to survive the grueling distance without losing too much of his kick was crucial to his win over the other sprinters last year, and it remains a strong reason to expect big things from him again this year. Kristoff also has the experienced Luca Paolini to help him navigate the day’s difficulties. He has been in excellent form all season, winning sprints in several stage races, and that only makes him appear a stronger candidate here. The one question mark for Kristoff is whether he’ll be close enough to the front of the race as the Via Roma approaches. The reduced distance between the bottom of the Poggio descent and the finish line will give Kristoff less time to regain ground if he loses position on the last climb. Kristoff is not a bad climber, for a sprinter, but there are other quick men who can go uphill more comfortably, and they look to be Kristoff’s biggest challengers should this come down to a sprint.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan has been close to success in this race before, but he has come up short at the line. Gerald Ciolek (surprisingly) denied him of a victory in a reduced sprint in 2013, and although he came to the line with the main pack in 2014, he was a nonfactor in the sprint. The altered finish may benefit Sagan, whose climbing legs set him apart from the other quick men. More so than most, he is capable of launching a late attack on the Poggio, or at least holding the wheel of someone who does. If some of top sprinters in the peloton have faded by the time the finish nears, Sagan will be in a prime position to pick up his first Monument win.
Another sprinter with capable climbing legs making the start is Giant-Alpecin’s John Degenkolb. His 2014 MSR campaign was ruined by a late puncture, but soon after, he took 2nd in Paris-Roubaix, proving that distance is not a problem for him. He has continually improved in the top speed department over the last few years, and even against the biggest-name sprinters in the world he can hold his own; when a long day and a late climb enter the equation, Degenkolb becomes even more dangerous. He hasn’t quite had the results he would have hoped for coming into the race, racking up a number of 2nd-places to go with one win early in the season in Dubai, but if he is timing his peak right around now, Degenkolb will be a great candidate for victory.
Movistar’s Juan José Lobato sports an excellent combination of climbing legs and sprinting prowess, and he has used that skillset to pick up several wins already this season (denying Degenkolb on multiple occasions). He will hope to build on his 4th-place here last year, and with the form he has shown so far in 2015, that seems like a real possibility. Should Movistar feel that Lobato’s bid is in doubt near the end of the day, the team could try to send Alejandro Valverde up the road on one of the two late climbs.
Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge has a similarly fine-tuned skillset combining climbing legs and a vicious finishing kick. His Paris-Nice victory suggests that the form is there as well. For Matthews, the main question mark is whether he can handle the distance. He doesn’t really have any results to speak of in overlong races. He could certainly change that at this year’s Milano-Sanremo, but it will be a foray into new territory.
Mark Cavendish headlines a collection of elite pure sprinters in attendance who will hope that their explosiveness is not too diminished by the time the peloton reaches the finish in San Remo. Cavendish has of course won this race in the past (in 2009) but it was a much younger Mark Cavendish taking the victory then. On last year’s parcours, similar to this year’s, Cavendish was with the main pack at the end of the day, but was unable to come away with more than a Top 5 after the long journey from Milan. With the Via Roma finish coming closer to the bottom of the Poggio, Cavendish will have to work even harder to maintain a strong position and his energy in the finale, making his candidacy as a top favorite questionable despite his legitimate claim to the title of fastest field sprinter on the startlist. Etixx-Quickstep does have alternatives on the roster in Michal Kwiatkowski and Zdenek Stybar, both on blazing form and capable of putting in a strong attack on a late climb in a one-day race.
Like Mark Cavendish, André Greipel is another powerful pure sprinter hoping to survive the long day with his strong kick intact. Coming off a sprint stage win at Paris-Nice, Greipel clearly has the sprinting form to contend in a bunch gallop, and in fact, he has made it a stated goal of this season to finally pick up a big one-day victory after years of near misses. If his pursuit of such a target has led him to improve his power and endurance, he will be a real contender here. Lotto-Soudal may look to Tony Gallopin as a second card to play near the finale.
The very long list of other quick men with a chance in a potential sprint, all of them with varying levels of versatility, includes Cofidis’s Nacer Bouhanni, the MTN-Qhubeka duo of Gerald Ciolek and Edvald Boasson Hagen, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, Sky’s Ben Swift (3rd last year, though entering the race with uncertain form this year), Cannondale-Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, Lampre-Merida’s duo of Niccolo Bonifazio and Davide Cimolai, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, and Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett.
Fabian Cancellara headlines the list of riders who could be looking to jump clear of the peloton in the final few kilometers. This parcours, without some of the uphill challenges of past editions, will make it very difficult for anyone to get away from the pack, but if anyone can do it, Fabian Cancellara is a prime pick. His time trial victory in Tirreno-Adriatico suggests that he is in formidable soloing shape at the moment, and he has done a great deal to work on his sprint this year should he come to the line with a small group. Cancellara was a surprising 2nd in last year’s bunch sprint, suggesting that he’s even a danger if he can’t shed the pack on the Poggio or the Cipressa. Having landed podium results each of the last four years, another strong placing seems practically guaranteed this year. Giacomo Nizzolo, fresh off a GP Nobili victory, offers Trek another option.
BMC’s duo of Philippe Gilbert and an on-form Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Sky’s Geraint Thomas and Ian Stannard, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, and Lampre-Merida’s Pippo Pozzato and Rui Costa are other riders to keep an eye on when the attacks start to fly around the Cipressa and the Poggio.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Alexander Kristoff Podium: John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, JJ Lobato, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet, Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Michael Matthews
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis of the race, and don’t forget to listen to the Recon Ride pre-race show for plenty more on the year’s first Monument. Check back soon for previews and roadside coverage of the upcoming Volta a Catalunya!
Episode 4: Milano-Sanremo 2015 Pre-race Show The Recon Ride takes on the first Monument Classic of 2015.
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The first WorldTour one-day event on the calendar and the first “Monument” of the season, Sunday’s 293-kilometer ride from Milan to San Remo gives the Recon Ride podcast plenty to discuss. Will Alexander Kristoff defend his title? Can Peter Sagan finally get that marquee victory? Will an Italian rider show up to contend in a major Italian Classic? VeloHuman and Cyclocosm team up to cover all the major storylines.
