Day 7: Fast Men Have Their Chances, Mountains Await
Stages 4-7, while not particularly mountainous, still managed to offer plenty of excitement, with no repeat winners and no shortage of drama, even if General Classification did not see much of a real shakeup; however, at the time of this writing, Dan Martin has reportedly been taken to the hospital for injuries suffered in a crash today, a crash that dropped him a little bit after he did not make it back to the peloton quite in time. Keep an eye on that.
A “punchy, Ardennes-style GC type” (see the previous post) did, in fact, nab stage 4: 2013 La Fleche Wallone winner Daniel Moreno attacked on the uphill finish and crossed the line ahead of an aggressive Fabian Cancellara and a pack of sprinters. The red jersey went back to Nibali after a tiny gap formed on the hill, but there was little to speak of in the way of substantial time differences for any of the big contenders, a theme that continued through today’s stage. Stage 5 went, as predicted, to Michael Matthews, who has officially arrived as a name to know. Specializing in sprints after hard days of riding, particualrly with slight uphill finishes, Matthews capitalized on Stage 5’s perfect profile to power ahead of Maximiliano Richeze and Gianni Meersman, leaving Tyler Farrar and Edvald Boasson Hagen a disappointed 5th and 6th. Stage 6, which looked set to be innocuous, saw Tony Martin attack early and ride solo ahead of the peloton basically all day, exceeding everyone’s expectations and generating real belief that he might manage, somehow, to stay ahead of the chasers for the victory, before getting caught just seconds from the finish line by a hard charging bunch of sprinters led by Danish track star turned road cyclist Michael Morkov. Richeze was again 2nd, with Cancellara 3rd and Farrar 4th. The even flatter Stage 7 had enough twists and turns toward the finish to allow a very late jump by world champion Philippe Gilbert and recent Eneco Tour champion Zdenek Stybar. They somehow held their advantage to the end, and Stybar pipped Gilbert to the line in a photo finish, with the bunch just behind, led by Belkin’s Robert Wagner. Four different days, four different winners, none of them Gianni Meersman, Edvald Boasson Hagen, or Tyler Farrar. Now that the sprinters have had their shot to make a mark on this Vuelta, the road goes up.
Stage 8: Jerez de la Frontera > Alto de Peñas Blancas | 166.6km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)
The peloton takes on a single categorized climb in Stage 8, but it’s a Cat. 1, 960 meter incline to the finish at Alto de Peñas Blancas. The climb is 14.5 kilometers long at an average gradient of 6.6%. The steepest portions are early (a brief section at 12.5% around 2km in), meaning that this climb will favor those all-rounders with full tanks, capable of sustained upward efforts. If a group finishes together, a strong finishing kick would seal the deal. Stage 2 might have led to frustrating time losses for a few of the big GC names, but Stage 8 is sure to cause serious selection in the fight for GC. Giro riders have now had a week to ride themselves into form, and Nibali has shown no signs of weakness, making him one of my obvious favorite for this stage, assuming a breakaway isn’t given the chance to nab a win (and given the number of riders currently still in contention for GC whose stated Giro aims are stage-win-oriented, it seems like the chase would be fierce). Ivan Basso has looked very capable so far, and he will appreciate the long road to the top. As the climb is only a little steeper and longer than that on Stage 2, many of those same names could factor here, including that stage’s winner Nicolas Roche, Domenico Pozzovivo, the ever-present Joaquim Rodriguez (though the road isn’t steep enough late enough to provide a great opportunity for his style of attack), his teammate Dani Moreno, and up-and-comers Leopold Konig and Diego Ulissi. As the ascent does even out a bit towards the top, a group could reach that point together, favoring riders with a strong finish: most obviously Alejandro Valverde, but don’t forget the rider who won the Points jersey in the 2011 Vuelta, Bauke Mollema, who has looked great so far.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Bauke Mollema | 3. Vincenzo Nibali | 4. Ivan Basso
Stage 9: Antequera > Valdepeñas de Jaén | 163.7km | Medium Mountains
Stage 9 again throws only a single categorized climb at the competitors, a Cat. 2 whose summit is 16km from the finish line, but the peloton will climb over rolling hills and then a steady upward incline to reach that summit. Then, they will zip downward toward the town of Valdepeñas de Jaen, until reaching a short but maddeningly steep ramp up to the finish line. Stage 9 is certain to provide excitement: riders might attack on the Cat. 2, or they might wait until the closing kilometer to launch up the zany climb. Katusha’s duo of Joaquim Rodriguez and Daniel Moreno (winner of this year’s La Fleche Wallone) will likely feature on the Mur de Huy-esque slope. Alejandro Valverde has come close to victory more than once on the early uphill finishes and will be out for the stage win and bonus seconds. After a rough start due to his knee injury, Philippe Gilbert has been looking stronger and stronger, and this finish suits him; the day’s climbs are likely to weed out the sprinting types from being much of a factor at the finish, but a tougher rider like Gilbert has a great opportunity to survive to the final gallop. It may be a bit steep for Simon Gerrans, who is riding himself into form, but he’s shown some real punch in earlier races this year. Roman Kreuziger, Daniel Martin (if he is alright healthwise, which is unclear at this point), Bauke Mollema, Sky teammates Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao, and Carlos Betancur (if he ever manages to find his legs again) have the explosiveness to take a victory here, too.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Philippe Gilbert | 4. Sergio Henao
Stage 10: Torredelcampo > Alto Hazallanas | 186.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)
It’s a good thing that the riders get a rest day in between Stage 10 and Stage 11, because Monday’s ride from Torredelcampo to Alto Hazallanas will be very hard on everyone. The day begins with a few small foothills. A little less than 30km away from the end of the line is the Alto de Monachil, a Cat. 1 mountain with 8.5 km of ascent at 7.7%. The riders will then take a steep descent before the road goes up again toward the finish line at the end of Special Category climb, Alto de Hazallanas, which is nearly 16 kilometers long at an average of 5%. If he didn’t already have enough of an advantage on the stage given his elite descending skills, Vincenzo Nibali’s diesel climbing style will serve him well in his bid to reach finish the long, grueling challenge ahead of his opponents. The ascent is highly irregular, however, with a flat portion 6 kilometers in, followed by a quick but very steep downhill turn a little over 7 kilometers in, and then a section of roughly 5 kilometers with gradients pushing 18% before things ease off a bit near the finish. In other words, there will be opportunities for aggressive climbers to attack, paving the way for a serious GC showdown between all the big names on Stage 10. Only the riders on elite form will be able to hang in front here. Purito will surely find a section of road to power ahead, as might his teammate Dani Moreno. Carlos Betancur would love this stage if he were feeling up for it, but he has struggled mightily so far. Roman Kreuziger is the full all-rounder package, an elite climber and time trialist with the capacity for quick bursts up upward speed as well: that skill set will set him up nicely on this climb if he decides to target the victory. It will be a true test for riders who have not looked sharp yet, ie. Samuel Sanchez and Sergio Henao (though, if he can find his form, he has a surprisingly strong combination of long-term power and quick acceleration in his engine that would suit him here), as there is very little respite after the downhill section ends and the punishing steep section begins with still roughly 7 kilometers remaining. As a side note, the descent to the start of the climb will be an interesting gauge of Thibaut Pinot’s progress in his struggle to overcome a fear of going down; if he can get over that obstacle, his fresher legs (he abandoned the Tour before it’s toughest days) and overall ability could make him a real danger not only for this climb but for the GC battle in general. Stage 10 should tell us what is what this Vuelta.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Joaquim Rodriguez | 3. Roman Kreuziger
-Dane Cash
Photo by Contando Estrelas.
