GC Stars Take on The Tour of the Basque Country
Fabian Cancellara has just won a thrilling Tour of Flanders sticking a late move with Greg Van Avermaet, Sep Vanmarcke, and Stijn Vandenbergh and outgunning all three Belgians at the line. Check back soon for a post-race impressions on De Ronde, and remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more. The cobbled experts remain in Northern Europe through the week waiting for the Hell of the North to kick off. Meanwhile, many of the pro peloton’s top GC riders are on again in Spain, lining up for the Tour of the Basque Country. The often rainy, rarely flat journey through the region, a spectacle notable enough to be mentioned in Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, draws an impressive start list to match its always-exciting parcours. In fact, every winner since 2007 also has at least one Grand Tour win or 2nd place in a Grand Tour on his palmares. Last year’s victor, Nairo Quintana, went on to take 2nd overall in the 2013 Tour de France. He is not returning to defend his title, but Alberto Contador, Quintana’s Grand Tour winning teammate Alejandro Valverde, and many other heavy hitters will line up to take on the ups and downs of Pais Vasco.
Though a stage or two might go to a sprinter, none of the stages in the Tour of the Basque country could be considered “flat.” The very 1st stage might create time gaps if a punchy climber launches on one of the many sharp Category 2 ascents on the day, including a one starting within 10 kilometers of the finish. The 4th and 6th stages could be most decisive: Stage 4 finishes with a climb of Arrate (though it ends on a short downhill), where Nairo Quintana climbed to the stage victory in 2013. Anyone with ambitions of winning this race, however, will have to keep it together through the 6th and final stage, a 25.9 kilometer time trial with a pair of serious climbs along the way. And throughout the week, you can expect rainy weather to force all the contenders to adapt.
All-Rounder Roundup
After his dominant victory at Tirreno-Adriatico and strong showing for 2nd place at Catalunya, the GC conversation at Pais Vasco has to start with two-time winner of this race, Alberto Contador. Tinkoff-Saxo’s star is back with a vengeance in 2014, and this is an event in which he has a great history of success. While the race lacks an interminable uphill slog to a summit finish that one might see in a Grand Tour, there are plenty of climbing miles for Alberto to wear down lesser challengers. Moreover, the stage 6 time trial will favor Contador’s high endurance game over the purer climbers who struggle against the clock. Tinkoff-Saxo does not send their top rider to Pais Vasco alone, however; Roman Kreuziger joins Contador for this race as he joined him at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he finished on the podium. As an Ardennes-winner with the ability to jump ahead on the short steep climbs (of which there are many in this race), Roman Kreuziger is a danger man. He also has a great time trial. Tinkoff-Saxo’s one-two punch will put other teams under a ton of pressure.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has not raced the Basque Country often in recent years, but he had a great deal of success earlier in his career, coming in 2nd in 2006 and nabbing several stage wins across multiple editions. A two time Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner, and also a winner of the Basque Country’s most famous one day race, the Clasica de San Sebastian, Valverde has some experience finding the perfect launching pad among a succession of climbs. He can also hold his own against the clock, especially in the mountains. Most importantly, he’s on fire in 2014, having already won a slew of lower level victories. As usual, Movistar sends plenty of support. Basque Country native Benat Intxausti was 8th here in 2013 and 2nd in 2010. He packs both excellent climbing ability and a strong time trial. Young Jon Izagirre, another rider from El Pais Vasco and a former Euskaltel squad member to boot, will also look to use his combined climbing and trialing ability to make a showing in this race. With several strong options, Movistar will likely be very active this week.
World Champion Rui Costa is an excellent all-rounder who will love the stage profiles; only a few singularly grueling climbs, many small but difficult ascents thrown in, and a hilly time trial to finish (Costa is strong against the clock when there is climbing involved). Costa will look for every opportunity to jump off the front when the rest of the peloton grinds to a halt going uphill, not only because every second will count in this race (though there are no bonus seconds at the line), but also because he’s still looking for his first win in the rainbow jersey in 2014. Teammate Damiano Cunego has had many strong results in Pais Vasco, with numerous top 10s in the past few years.
BMC’s Tejay van Garderen is coming off an excellent trip to Catalunya, where he climbed his way to his first WorldTour victory on stage 4, and 3rd place overall. He must be ecstatic to have landed such fine results in a race without a time trial. In Pais Vasco, the American all-rounder will be salivating at the final day’s test against the clock, which will suit his engine. In addition, his Catalunya victory seems to show an improved ability to explode uphill, which will help van Garderen in the days prior to the final chrono. BMC will be backing him up with quite a supporting cast. Cadel Evans makes the trip to prepare for the Giro. Samuel Sanchez, who has a great history of success in this race, winning in 2012, will look to put together a result for his new team. He was still a bit off his game in Catalunya but the Tour of the Basque Country suits him and I believe he will be motivated to step up.
Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur heads up the suddenly world-beating AG2R team. Minor injury put his participation in question until the last minute, but he seems set to start. He was 7th last year, and on stellar form in 2014, he’s a great bet to pick up time charging ahead on the early stages of this race; the biggest challenge for Betancur will be the final stage, as he generally struggles against the clock. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud may actually be the better overall bet, coming off basically the first big victory of his very long career in the Criterium International last week. He is good against the clock, especially in this kind of ITT, and with his 4th place at Tirreno-Adriatico he showed an impressive ability to contend with the top GC guys right now. Versatile Christophe Riblon is yet another option for AG2R.
Early season star Michal Kwiatkowski had a very disappointing Tirreno-Adriatico, and his only race since was a DNF at Milano-Sanremo. He was on blazing form in February and March, but it is unclear if he has still kept that top-shelf shape into April. If so, he is very dangerous here, with so many short climbs that suit him much better than the grueling T-A stage that sunk his hopes in that race. If he can limit his losses uphill, especially on Stage 4, he will be a strong contender to win the final time trial outright, making him a good bet for the overall at Pais Vasco 2014.
Belkin’s dynamic duo of Bauke Mollema and Robert Gesink (3rd here in 2011) will hope that Pais Vasco goes better for them than Tirreno-Adriatico did (Mollema was well of the pace and Gesink abandoned T-A with a health issue). Both have looked good in other races this season, and I think the Pais Vasco parcours will be good for them. Simon Spilak leads the Katusha charge; 4th in 2013, he’s looked alright so far in 2014 with results that include a Top 10 in Paris-Nice. He can do a decent time trial when there are hills involved. FDJ sends Thibaut Pinot, who looked to be rounding into form at Catalunya after struggling to get his season started. Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal also looked to be getting back into shape at Catalunya after not participating in many races so far in 2014. He was 6th at the Gran Premio Miguel Indurain this week, so he seems to be continuing to improve. Andy and Frank Schleck headline Trek Factory Racing. Frank has looked decent so far this year, but teammate Robert Kiserlovski might be their most on-form rider here after his 7th in Tirreno-Adriatico and 10th in Catalunya.
Orica-GreenEdge’s Pieter Weening showed in last year’s Tour de Pologne that a hilly time trial suits him; he was 6th in Pais Vasco in 2013. Adam and Simon Yates are also along for OGE; keep an eye out for the highly touted young duo. Giant-Shimano’s pair of Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin could make waves here. Barguil will love the constant opportunities to jump up the road on a climb, and Dumoulin is a serious time trialing talent. Astana sends Mikel Landa, Janez Brajkovic, and Tanel Kangert (who is great against the clock). Lotto’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck will hope that this is the race that puts him on track in 2014. Caja Rural’s David Arroyo abandoned Catalunya in the final day but had been climbing at a high level before then; teammate Luis Leon Sanchez is a time trialing talent who has had plenty of success racing bikes in El Pais Vasco. Pierre Rolland has not gotten it going yet in 2014, but the two-time Tour de France Top 10er at least deserves a mention. And lastly: in a rare occurrence, Sky does not really have a top contender in this race, with their various stars racing, training, or recovering elsewhere; Mikel Nieve and Peter Kennaugh are their best bets here.
Stagehunters
The dearth of flat stages has kept the start list light on sprinting talent. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews and Sky’s Ben Swift will be happy to pick up whatever sprint finishes they can. Barring any late additions to the startlist Michael Morkov and Daniele Ratto comprise basically the rest of the list of riders to watch in a bunch gallop.
As with many races with this kind of parcours, most stages will see the GC contenders on their toes and alert for opportunities to strike; some of them, riders like Valverde, Costa, and Kwiatkowski will be looking to pick up multiple stage wins as well as fight for the General Classification. Holding off these big names will be a challenge for the stagehunters here, but the list of punchy fast-finishers among them is an impressive one: Orica Green-Edge’s Simon Gerrans (who won a stage last year), and BMC’s Philippe Gilbert headline the group. A number of the stars of Paris-Nice make the start as well. Garmin’s Tom-Jelte Slagter will love his chances to pick up more stage victories here. The same could be said for FDJ’s Arthur Vichot. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier will look for his first WorldTour win after a fine start to 2014. Jan Bakelants and Pieter Serry of OPQS also like to jump on the late bumps in the road and both have fast finishes. Astana’s Maxim Iglinskiy and Enrico Gasparotto could be active as well.
Amets Txurruka deserves a mention all to himself: he will almost certainly be up the road going for the long breakaway victory on multiple days of this race. He was King of the Mountains last year.
VeloHuman Favorites
Winner: Alberto Contador
Podium: Tejay van Garderen, Alejandro Valverde
Top 10: Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowksi, Roman Kreuziger, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Carlos Betancur
Be sure to follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race, and come back soon for more classics coverage: the Paris-Roubaix preview is up next!
-Dane Cash
Photo by brassynn.