Tag: Peter Sagan

Paris-Roubaix 2016 Preview

Paris-Roubaix kicks off Sunday in Compiègne (which is actually about an hour from Paris by car), and this year’s edition of the race should be as interesting as ever.

The Route

257.5 kilometers from start to finish, the Paris-Roubaix parcours is pancake-flat, with 27 officially rated cobbled sectors. Even the less difficult sections are perilous, but things really heat up after 160km at the Arenberg Trench, the first “five-star” sector in terms of difficulty, the tenth official section on the day. It’s a narrow, 2.4km stretch of “road” that runs through a dense forest. The surface is brutal, and even a specialist can have it all go wrong bouncing around on the cobbles. Unfortunately, things don’t get a whole lot easier after that.

After eight more difficult stretches of cobbles comes Mons-en-Pévele, 3km long, another particularly nastry stretch. The riders will have less than 50km to go when they arrive, so you can expect attacks to fly from the more aggressive types.

If the race isn’t broken up by then, it almost certainly will be by the time the riders are through with the Carrefour de l’Arbre, the last major obstacle on the profile before an easier final three cobbled sectors. The Carrefour is a make or break 2.1km section that is tough enough to blow any group to pieces.

15 kilometers later those who have survived the trek over some of the most uncomfortable roads in cycling will arrive at the Roubaix velodrome to finish the race. It’s often the sight of a small sprint, though solo wins and larger sprint are possibilities as well.

The Contenders

2015 champ John Degenkolb won’t be defending his title due to injuries suffered in a training crash, but the startlist is still full of classics firepower.

Fabian Cancellara is in the hunt for his fourth career Paris-Roubaix victory Sunday in his last ever appearance at the race. The form he showed last weekend at the Tour of Flanders makes that seem like a real possibility. Roubaix suits his huge engine perfectly. With a solid team around him, Cancellara can mark early attacks right up to the point where he launches his own. His biggest challenge will be shedding the many contenders who might be potentially speedier in a sprint finish.

Peter Sagan fits the bill. He’s got the “when will you win a Monument?” monkey off his back now, and he’s on blazing form. However, Paris-Roubaix doesn’t suit him nearly as well as De Ronde. One of the things that sets him apart as a rider is his ability to leave other one-day specialists behind on short climbs and then seal the deal with his masterful descending abilities. He won’t be able to put those skills on display here. It won’t be as easy for the punchy world champ to leave his rivals behind on this profile.

Sep Vanmarcke, on the other hand, will appreciate the flatter parcours, at least when it comes to facing off against Sagan. He has looked very strong the past few races and has improved dramatically as a sprinter since he took runner-up honors in Roubaix in 2013. That makes him dangerous.

Alexander Kristoff can go toe to toe against anyone on this startlist in a sprint. He looked sharp in Flanders, and although he’s never had as much success in Paris-Roubaix, he can’t be counted out. He’ll need everything to go his way in a race notorious for doling out punctures, mechanicals, and even fan collisions at the worst possible moments, but if he can hang with the lead group he’s a big threat in the velodrome.

Etixx-QuickStep’s Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Tom Boonen form a powerful lead trio that can boast several Roubaix wins and podium performances. Four-time winner Boonen has looked decent so far this year but Stybar and Terpstra are probably better bets. I particularly like Terpstra’s chances — I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small group enter the last 10km together and he has already shown that he has the power to make his rivals pay if they hesitate even for a moment when he launches a late solo move.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jurgen Roelandts, Tiesj Benoot, Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard, Jens Keukeleire, and Daniel Oss are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Fabian Cancellara
Podium: Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Alexander Kristoff, Tom Boonen, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lars Boom, Luke Rowe

Photo by Dane Cash.

April 10, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Paris-Roubaix 2016

Episode 38: Paris-Roubaix 2016 Pre-race Show

The podcast covers the route, the favorites, and the storylines ahead of the “Queen of the Classics,” Paris-Roubaix.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano talk Paris-Roubaix, with some pro insight from Taylor Phinney, twice a winner of the espoirs race.

Photo by Dane Cash.

April 7, 2016
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2016 Preview

The tuneup races are in the bag. Belgium’s biggest day of cycling is here. Sunday’s Tour of Flanders is the 100th edition of the monumental classic, and with several big names gunning for an elusive first monument win against two riders hoping to pick up a fourth career Ronde victory, it should be an entertaining show.

The Route

255 kilometers from start to finish, the Ronde van Vlaanderen is defined by its many climbs, most of which are cobbled. Officially, there are 18 climbs on the route. Many of them are crested more than once. The peloton will take on the challenging Oude Kwaremont/Paterberg double twice on the day, with the second visit to the difficult pairing marking the final two climbs on the profile. After the riders summit the Paterberg for the second time, it’s less than 20 kilometers of flat to the finish.

The Contenders

Hunting for a record-breaking fourth Flanders win in his final year as a pro, Fabian Cancellara is certainly among the favorites. There are several fast finishers among the top contenders, so Cancellara’s chances probably come down to his ability to power away on the late climbs using his incredible engine. Don’t be surprised if he pulls it off, even at age 35.

Defending champion Alexander Kristoff has his work cut out for him this year. He may have won some races in the desert at the start of his 2016 campaign, but he just hasn’t quite looked as strong yet this year as he did in 2015. He won the race last year from a surprising two-man move, but he has not shown much of that escape ability since. It’s hard to say whether he can pull off that brilliant feat again, and given the tough profile, a big sprint (which would indeed favor him) seems unlikely.

Peter Sagan, fresh off a second career Gent-Wevelgem win, looks ready to finally nab a monument win. He’ll be looking to force a selection on the climbs, but he can rely on his kick from a small group after that, as he combines soloing ability and sprinting chops like few others in the peloton, and appears to be in shape at the moment.

Greg Van Avermaet also brings a terrific combination of top-end speed and solo prowess. He didn’t race at E3, where he would have been among the top favorites, but his overall victory at Tirreno-Adriatico proved his strong form. With Daniel Oss as a great second, BMC should expect big things Sunday.

Sep Vanmarcke was having a quiet season until Gent-Wevelgem last week. Vanmarcke missed an early split but was able to work his way back into the mix, and then put in an attack that was reeled in only to make the final selection on the Kemmelberg not long after. The form looks to be there. And don’t underestimate him in a fast finish either—he’s steadily improved as a sprinter over the past few years.

Tom Boonen may be in the running for a record-breaking fourth career Flanders win of his own, but Etixx-QuickStep will likely look to Zdenek Stybar and Niki Terpstra as the featured riders this weekend. They’ve both shown ability on this terrain and the form looks good at the moment.

Sky has options too, with Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Luke Rowe, and Ian Stannard all potential protagonists. Don’t overlook the Lotto-Soudal stable either. Youngster Tiesj Benoot and veteran Jurgen Roelandts are both riders to watch. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lars Boom, Filippo Pozzato, Heinrich Haussler, and Matti Breschel are others worth watching in Flanders.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Tiesj Benoot, Michal Kwiatkowski, Alexander Kristoff, Edvald Boasson Hagen

Photo by Dane Cash.

April 3, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2016

Episode 37: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2016 Pre-race Show

The Recon Ride previews the Tour of Flanders, quite possibly the best race on the cycling calendar.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano dive into De Ronde van Vlaanderen, the Tour of Flanders, with a little help from CyclingTips U.S. Editor Neal Rogers.

Photo by Dane Cash.

March 31, 2016
E3 Harelbeke 2016 Preview

Friday’s E3 Harelbeke is the first of three WorldTour-level cobbled classics in Belgium. Featuring many of the climbs used in the Tour of Flanders, it’s an excellent prep race for De Ronde hopefuls, and it’s also a big prize in its own right. Recent editions have offered plenty of excitement, with late attacks keeping things interesting until the end.

The Route

206.4km in total, the race starts and finishes in Harelbeke, Belgium, traversing 15 climbs along the way. The Oude Kwaremont, among the most important climbs in the Tour of Flanders these days, offers a decisive launching pad late on in the stage, followed by the Karnemelkbeekstraat and the Tiegemberg.

From there, however, it’s roughly 20 flattish kilometers to the finish—as such, anyone hoping to get clear on the hellingen will need a big engine to stay away in the finale.

The Contenders

This race has typically come down to a small group of escapees late on in the day, but a strong finishing kick can be very helpful given the less challenging final kilometers.

Greg Van Avermaet has made a living with his late attacks, and he is sprinting at a very high level right now as well. He’s never won a one-day race on the WorldTour, but this seems like the perfect time to start.

2014 winner Peter Sagan also has the right combination of skills to take the win. Motivation may be a question, but if he’s up for it, the world champ should be in the mix.

Fabian Cancellara counts three E3 titles on his palmares. It’s hard to say whether he’s all that interested in this year’s edition of the event (his eyes may be firmly fixed on the upcoming Tour of Flanders), but he’s one of the best solo artists in the sport on this sort of parcours.

Etixx-Quick-Step is loaded with options. Zdenek Stybar and Niki Terpstra are probably the best bets, though Tom Boonen has won this race a whopping five times. Stijn Vandenbergh is yet another card to play.

Alexander Kristoff is one of the few sprinter types who might have a shot at holding on given the profile. This will be a nice test of form ahead of his Tour of Flanders defense.

Sep Vanmarcke should love this parcours, and like Van Avermaet, he’s sprinting better than ever before these days should this come down to a small group. Vanmarcke was garnering plenty of pre-race attention this time last year, but things have quieted down in 2016 after his disappointing 2015 campaign. That could give him a chance to focus more on his goals and less on media appearances.

Outsiders include Lotto-Soudal’s Tiesj Benoot and Jurgen Roelandts, Sky’s Luke Rowe and Ian Stannard, Lars Boom, Bryan Coquard, and Arnaud Démare, fresh off a Milano-Sanremo victory.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Sep Vanmarcke, Niki Terpstra, Alexander Kristoff, Tiesj Benoot, Jurgen Roelandts, Ian Stannard

Photo: Cindy Trossaert (CC).

March 25, 2016
Milano-Sanremo 2016 Preview

The 107th edition of Milano-Sanremo gets underway Saturday. 291 kilometers of racing through north-western Italy, the event is a classic in every sense of the word, but unique among the classics in its appeal to sprinters and hardmen alike.

The Route

This year’s Milano-Sanremo route sticks to the recent formula: the first 235km feature only one climb, the Passo del Turchino, and then comes a succession of small ascents sure to launch attacks. The two key climbs are the Cipressa, 5.6km with a 4.1% gradient (summitted just over 21km from the finish) and the subsequent Poggio, a little under 4km at a little under 4% (summitted a little over 5km from the finish).

The race concludes on the iconic Via Roma, with a long finishing straight that usually treats fans to a high-speed showdown.

The Contenders

The Poggio and Cipressa spring attacks every year, but neither climb is hard enough to really favor the escapees. It’s certainly a possibility that someone aggressive can jump clear here, but the bunch kick specialists seem more likely to thrive—in particular, those bunch kick specialists with the endurance to ride for six hours while keeping a sprint in the tank.

2015 winner John Degenkolb fits that bill, but injury has forced him to miss out on the race; he won’t be defending his crown Saturday, leaving the title open for the taking.

2014 winner Alexander Kristoff will be in attendance. He narrowly missed out on the win last year when he opened his sprint far too early, but still managed to come in second. A proven performer at this distance who has looked sharped so far in 2016, Kristoff will have the eyes of the whole peloton on him when the riders roll into Sanremo.

Peter Sagan has come close here in years past and seems like a lock to do so again this year, but he might not have the top-end speed to compete on this parcours. Plus, the distance may get to him—he still has yet to take a victory in a Monument Classic. For Sagan, it will be important to drop or get clear of the likes of Alexander Kristoff.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge found himself on the podium in 2015 and should have only gotten better since then. The 26-year-old has yet to take that big one-day win and he is probably just a tad behind Kristoff in the speed department, but he has looked very strong so far in 2016. Former winner Simon Gerrans should be a strong ally.

That trio looks to be a cut above the rest if this come downs to a sprint, but there are quite a few others who could be in the mix.

Fernando Gaviria is a hot name right now given his strong results so far this year and his great top-end speed, but it’s really, really hard to win Sanremo without having ever raced a big classic. If he’s not up for this, Etixx does have Tom Boonen on the squad. Nacer Bouhanni is another sprinter who can never been ignored, though this is a very difficult race that might be too much for the Frenchman who has never been a huge classics star.

Ben Swift, Elia Viviani, Arnaud Demare, Niccolo Bonifazio, and Giacomo Nizzolo are others who should be to hold their own in a sprint.

Fabian Cancellara will be among those hoping to deny the sprinters their shot at the win. He has won Milano-Sanremo in the past and proved his form in the Tirreno-Adriatico time trial. It won’t be easy for him to escape the bunch, but he’ll probably try.

Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who will probably need to break free from the peloton to make something happen here, but if his early season results are any indication, he has all the form in the world right now. He’s also got a lot of speed for a reduced sprint.

Edvald Boasson Hagen is yet another versatile guy who has looked strong this season, and he brings the complete package with his ability to both solo and sprint. Dimension Data teammate Mark Cavendish, a former winner here, has said that Boasson Hagen will be the one to watch.

Vincenzo Nibali will almost certainly make some kind of late attack in this race. His defending skills will give him an edge if he can escape the peloton on the Cipressa or the Poggio.

Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, and Sep Vanmarcke are others who could try to take advantage of the late climbs to make something happen.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Greg Van Avermaet, Vincenzo Nibali, Fernando Gaviria, Nacer Bouhanni, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Mark Cavendish

Photo by Sergio (CC).

March 19, 2016