Tag: Peter Sagan

World Championships 2015: Road Race Preview

The Richmond World Championships week concludes with the elite men’s road race, which will decide who earns the right to rainbow stripes for the next 12 months. It’s been a long stretch of post-Tour of tune-up races, but it’s time for the international peloton to put it on the line in the fight for cycling’s biggest one-day prize.

The Route

The men’s elite road race runs 261.4 kilometers in total. Starting just outside town at the University of Richmond, the peloton will roll into a road circuit of 16.2km, completing a slightly reduced lap on the way to the first passing of the line then, and then riding 15 more to the race finish.

The circuit starts out fast, with mostly flat or downhill roads, but things get both lumpy and technical in the final few kilometers. There are three climbs to speak of that will likely spur plenty of action late in the race, with plenty of twists and turns thrown in along the way to give the attackers a hand in escape attempts. First up is the cobbled Libby Hill climb, 200 meters at about 8%. Then comes a short flat stretch and a fast descent into the foot of the very steep 23rd street climb, also on cobblestones, 100 meters at over 10%. After one last downhill run comes the Governor’s Street climb, 300 meters at about 7%. The climb evens out about 700 meters from the finish, though the rest of the way angles just slightly upward.

The Contenders

There is a wide variety of opinions on how this race will play out (a topic covered at length in the Recon Ride podcast p/b VeloNews, which is absolutely worth checking out). A glance at the cumulative vertical meters wouldn’t suggest that this profile is particularly difficult, but the climbs come in fast succession, the first two are cobbled, and things are technical enough that riders will be on edge all day. Throw in a high chance of a rain and what appears to be a less challenging course could get very messy.

It’s hard to say whether the race will come down to a sprint or to a late escape. The severity of the weather could make the difference. In any case, the flatter finish will make sprinting legs a major asset for the rainbow jersey hopefuls. There are several riders in Richmond who combine impressive top-end speed with respectable climbing legs and classics-style grit, and it is those riders who stand out as the top favorites for what has to be described as a wide open worlds road race.

Alexander Kristoff is certainly among the top names in the race. If Kristoff can bring the form he showed in the Tour of Flanders into this race, he’ll be deadly: he didn’t wait around for large group sprint in that race, instead attacking late on with Niki Terpstra and holding out for the win. If he can win on the more challenging parcours of De Ronde, he should be able to handle Richmond if the form is there, latching onto a small group if need be. Recent showings in the Arctic Race of Norway, the Vattenfall Cyclassics, the GP Ouest-France, and the GP Québec suggest that he’s in great shape. His Norwegian squad brings only six riders, but there are enough sprinters in the race to probably keep things under control, so I don’t really see the six-man squad at much of a disadvantage. Speaking of Norwegian teammates, Edvald Boasson Hagen will be an excellent second card to play for the squad, on blazing form right now and on a course that suits hits talents.

John Degenkolb beat Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo this year, and worked his own late-escape-magic to take the victory in Paris-Roubaix. Again, if the form is there, Degenkolb should thrive, though he hasn’t had quite a successful Worlds buildup as Kristoff. He also hasn’t had quite as much success on cobbled climbs over the years, so it’s hard to say how he’ll feel about Libby Hill. In any case, he’s a huge threat to win if he’s in shape, and a powerhouse German squad is ready to set him up for the victory. André Greipel is on the squad as well, and will be an obvious favorite if he can survive the tough day.

Peter Sagan has just the perfect skillset for this course: he’s an excellent bike handler, he loves the short climbs, and he can be in the mix with the best in a sprint. I will be very surprised if he’s not on the podium at the end of the day. A moto crash at the Vuelta interrupted his buildup campaign but he should still be in good shape to fight for the win. The biggest challenge will be the distance, as his Grand Tour stage-winning sprinting legs have often lost a bit of luster at the end of long Classics.

Michael Matthews is the other sprinting talent who stands out as a top favorite. On the one hand, I like his climbing legs and love his form right now after an impressive showing in Québec. I also think Australia will ride well in support of him. On the other hand, Matthews’s talents have not yet translated into all that much one-day success compared to his top rivals here, and a long and potentially hectic Worlds course will be a tough place for him to make the leap to the next level. Still, he’s a big threat, and his top-end speed may be underrated by some. Teammate Simon Gerrans is an unknown for Australia: the course suits him, but form is a total question mark after several crashes this season. Obviously keep an eye on the two-time Monument winner.

The Belgian squad starts the two riders I see as most likely to win the race with a late solo move, as well as a few other contenders. Greg Van Avermaet is my top pick on the team. This is a good route for him, with steep cobbled sections to escape the pack and twists and turns to stay clear. If he comes to the line in a small group, Van Avermaet packs a strong sprint. I expect to see him near the top of the leaderboard after 261.4km. Philippe Gilbert could also get involved. The climbs might not be as long as he’d prefer but he’s looked good this year and his strong team should be able to set him up nicely for an attack. Sep Vanmarcke and Tom Boonen are other good options.

Speaking of Classics riders, Zdenek Stybar should thrive here—he’s in shape, he loves cobbled climbs, and he’s not being talked about as much as the fast finishers. The former cyclocross world champion will shine if the rain makes things messy.

France has Arnaud Démare and Nacer Bouhanni for a potential sprint, but I like the chances of both Julian Alaphilippe and Tony Gallopin even better. Gallopin thrives in selective finishes, and Alaphilippe was active in the Canadian GPs.

Defending world champion Michal Kwiatkowski will have his work cut out for him trying to hold onto the rainbow jersey, but he’s an excellent bike handler and descender who will love the technical finale. He also showed good form in the Canadian GPs even if the results didn’t show much. It would be a mistake to underestimate him. Also likely to be overlooked a bit given the course, 2013 world champ Rui Costa could be involved as well after a strong showing in Montréal.

Niki Terpstra is my top outsider pick for the Worlds Road Race. He looked very strong in the Vuelta, he’s made great strides climbing on the cobbles, and he’s even got speed for a sprint. The Dutch team is strong and it’s been flying under the radar. Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom are other riders to watch.

Spain may be nominally riding for Alejandro Valverde, and he certainly has a chance with the late climbs, but I’m eying Juan José Lobato as well. His season quieted down after a great start but he looked good in the Tour of Britain and is very fast when in form.

Matti Breschel always seems to show up for Worlds and this course suits him. Italy does not have a team that is particularly suited to the course, but with a huge collection of talents on the squad maybe something will work out. I especially like Matteo Trentin, but there is plenty of firepower on the Italian team. Taylor Phinney will fly the flag for the home nation. This course suits him very well, but it’s impossible to say how his form will hold up over the course of 261.4km in his first big one-day race back from injury. Still, his time trial performance hinted that he’s in good shape. Tyler Farrar is the sprint option for Team U.S.A. Ben Swift, Ramunas Navardauskas, Michael Albasini, and Sam Bennett are on the very long list of outsiders who could surprise the big favorites in Richmond.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Juan José Lobato, Julian Alaphilippe.

VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.

Photo by Sean Rowe (CC).

September 26, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Puebla de Don Fadrique › Murcia – 182.5km

The Vuelta’s eighth stage involves far more downhill kilometers than uphill kilometers, but a twice-ascended climb in the latter half of the day will still likely have an impact.

The first 110 kilometers of Stage 8 are almost all downhill as the Vuelta a España descends toward Murcia and the coast. Then comes a flatter stretch of about 30km before the peloton hits the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo, a tough Cat. 3 climb of 4.2 kilometers at a 7.5% average grade. From the top it’s a steep descent down to flatter roads, which wind right back to the foot of the Cresta del Gallo for a second trip up. Then comes another trip back down to the coast. From the point when things even out again at the town of Algezares, it’s just 13km to the finish line.

On the whole, Stage 8 does not involve all that much climbing, but the placement of the climbs makes them hard to overlook. They’ll whittle down the pack significantly, and could also serve as a launching pad for a late attack. If the peloton comes into the finale in a compact group, the sprint will still be among a reduced field.

An in-form Peter Sagan would be a clear-cut favorite for this stage, but since he’s not completely at 100%, it’s a bit of a question mark as to whether he can survive the climbs and fight it out in a sprint. I still see him as the likeliest candidate for success, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him dropped on the first or second trip up the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo. The big GC guns have been extremely conservative in this Vuelta so far, however, and a continued lack of action could help Sagan stay in touch.

John Degenkolb seems a little less likely to make it up and over the final climb, and even if he does he might be too gassed to fight for the win, though he can’t be counted out. Degenkolb is lacking in the form department right now but it would make sense for him to be working his way up to a peak with Worlds approaching, and at his best, Degenkolb would be a top favorite for this stage. Nacer Bouhanni and Caleb Ewan will both have to work very, very hard to hang on over the final climb, though both riders can count on being contenders if they make it to the finish in the lead group.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde shouldn’t have any trouble hanging on, and will likely feature in a potential reduced sprint, as he is among the fastest of the GC men. Teammate JJ Rojas is an excellent alternative, but team politics will be the biggest obstacle for him to overcome: he doesn’t get many chances to ride for himself. He may be faster than Valverde in a sprint, but multiple stages in the Volta a Catalunya showed that Movistar isn’t afraid to ask Rojas to brake and let Valverde cross the line first if necessary.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodríguez would be a great candidate for success with a late attack on the climb if he were showing any interest whatsoever in being active in this Vuelta, but he’s been disappointingly quiet so far in the race. Daniel Moreno may be the stronger stage favorite, as he’s handy in a reduced sprint.

Daniel Martin has the punch to launch a late attack and the fast finish to contend in a sprint. The same is true for Tom Dumoulin, who has looked incredible in the first week of the Vuelta. Jelle Vanendert, Samuel Sánchez, Luis Leon Sanchez, Carlos Barbero, Jose Goncalvez, Jean-Pierre Drucker, Jasper Stuyven, Simon Gerrans, Julien Simon, and Tosh Van Der Sande are others with potential in this finish.

With a finale that isn’t all that well-tailored to the pure sprinters, the breakaway will have its chance at making it all the way on Stage 8. Sylvain Chavanel, Niki Terpstra, Adam Hansen, Cyril Gautier, and Alessandro De Marchi are among the many riders who could thrive from a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 8. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here. Also, don’t miss the latest Recon Ride, which covers all the big storylines ahead of Sunday GP Ouest-France.

August 28, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Rota › Alcalá de Guadaíra – 167.3km

The Vuelta’s fifth stage is another day of mostly flat roads leading to an uphill finish. There is not a single categorized climb on the menu. This one should come down to the very end of the stage, where the only really challenges of the day await—after 166 straightforward kilometers with very little in the way of climbing, the peloton will snake through a few corners and roundabouts before hitting an uphill drag of over 5% for the last 500 meters of the day.

The finishing climb is not categorized and it’s not difficult enough to favor an attacker or cause much separation. It will, however, give a slight advantage to the more well-rounded of the fast finishers in the Vuelta peloton.

Peter Sagan will be a favored contender for a third straight day. This finish suits him better than any yet in the Vuelta. It’s not so steep as to give the climbing specialists an edge, but it will definitely put the heavier pure sprinters at a disadvantage. Stage 5 is tailormade for Sagan, and what’s more, he has shown that he’s in sharp form and very interested in getting as much as he can out of this Vuelta. He nearly took a second stage win in as many days on a Stage 4 that finished on a climb that was probably just a hair harder than he would have preferred. Stage 5, with its technical final kilometer, gives him a chance to use all of his manifold skills on the bike to his advantage.

John Degenkolb should be best placed to challenge Sagan at this finish. Sagan has the edge on the steeper gradients but Degenkolb is very handy in a finish like this. Still, he has his work cut out for him. Degenkolb couldn’t keep Sagan from coming around him on a Stage 3 that suited him better. It will be a challenge outgunning Sagan here.

Nacer Bouhanni will have a chance at this stage as well—although he’d prefer a flatter finish, he’s shown an ability to handle more challenging gradients near the line in the past. The question mark for Bouhanni is whether he’s at 100% after multiple crashes.

Jean-Pierre Drucker has a knack for success in messier finishes and this is likely to be a hectic finale. He can’t be ignored as a contender for Stage 5 even against the likes of favorites Sagan and Degenkolb.

Carlos Barbero was not as much of a factor on Stages 3 or 4 as I’d expected, but this stage, with a finish that is tougher than the former but easier than the latter, should suit him best. He’s still a long shot against the big talents he’ll be up against, but this is a profile he’ll appreciate.

JJ Rojas, Alejandro Valverde, Caleb Ewan, Daniel Moreno, Jasper Stuyven, Danny Van Poppel, Vicente Reynes, Simon Gerrans, Tom Dumoulin, and Kristian Sbaragli are others to watch in the uphill sprint that is likely to decide Stage 5 of the Vuelta.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Nacer Bouhanni

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 5. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 25, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Estepona › Vejer de la Frontera – 209.6km

A cursory glance at the Stage 4 profile might lead you to expect a big bunch sprint at the end of the day. But take a closer look at the last 5km and it should be clear that the heavyweight sprinters won’t be in a happy place in this finale.

There isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Estepona to Vejer de la Frontera, but things get very difficult just before the line after 200 mostly flat kilometers. With just over 4km to go, the road kicks up at a gradient of just over 10% for a little over a kilometer. After that initially vicious uphill stretch the grade eases a bit, but the climbing continues until there are about 2km to go, when the road flattens out, before angling downhill until there are just 500 meters left. Then the road kicks sharply upward again, getting into the double digits before easing to a gradient of a little over 4% at the finish.

A straightforward sprint with all the traditional speedsters in contention seems unlikely. First, the initial steep section could provide a launching pad for an aggressive puncheur to make an attack in the closing kilometers of the race. And if things are all together coming under the flamme rouge, the uphill drag to the line will favor a different sort of rider. Strong climbing legs will be as critical as explosiveness on Stage 4.

Peter Sagan has both in spades. He showed on Stage 3 that he’s not just taking the Vuelta a España as a long training ride, and having proven that he’s not afraid to go after the stages that suit him, he’s suddenly a dangerous contender in the stagehunting game. All that said, it’s still going to be hard to predict just when he’s going to put it all on the line to hunt down results in this race. The tough Stage 4 finish suits him very well, as it is likely to prove too difficult for anyone else with the same sort of speed, but there is always the possibility that Sagan just isn’t interested in expending the necessary effort to go for the win. If he does, he’ll be hard to beat. If he doesn’t, this is a wide open stage.

The finish looks great for Dan Martin, who showed strength on Stage 2 despite missing the day’s winning move. Martin has a Monument-winning ability to launch a late attack, but he’s also handier in a fast finish than most riders with his ability to climb should things stay together for a reduced sprint in the final few hundred meters. Martin is fresher than many of the star climbers in this race, and motivated to pick up a big result after a slow season.

Alejandro Valverde has the skillset to thrive at this finish and should be among the favorites, but form is a bit of a question mark. He was somewhat disappointing on a Stage 2 that seemed to suit him perfectly, just as he was a disappointment on the Mur de Huy and Mur de Bretagne in the Tour de France. If he’s worked through a bit of early-race sluggishness though, he’ll be up there fighting for the win.

The Katusha duo of Joaquim Rodríguez and Daniel Moreno should be anxious for a second chance after a missed opportunity on Stage 2. Rodríguez in particular looks strong and up for a challenge just like this where he can try a late attack, or rely on his decent uphill sprint.

John Degenkolb has shown flashes of the ability to take on something this steep, but he’s much better served when the tough climbs come earlier on in a stage—he’s capable of grinding it out over a long day of up and down and sticking it out for a flat sprint, but when the finish itself is this challenging, Degenkolb might struggle. Teammate Tom Dumoulin should be the best option for Giant-Alpecin. The double digits aren’t his forte but he’s got a nice turn of speed and a terrific ability to go solo when the opportunity presents itself.

Esteban Chaves took the peloton by surprise to take the Stage 2 win and the red jersey after a somewhat quiet season, but he won’t be able to stay out of the spotlight on Stage 4. All eyes will be on the race leader on the final climb. He’s still a threat but this isn’t a perfect finish for him compared to some of the other favorites, and he doesn’t have the element of surprise. Simon Gerrans would probably be OGE’s best option here, though his form is an unknown, as he’s coming back from an injury. If he’s healthy, he could contend for the win.

Carlos Barbero has had a lot of success this season on this sort of profile, though generally his results have come against far less imposing rivals. Still, don’t count him out against the Vuelta field—Caja Rural is on home turf and highly motivated to come away with a stage win in Spain’s biggest race.

Jelle Vanendert, Bart De Clercq, JJ Rojas, Nicolas Roche, Sergio Henao, Jasper Stuyven, Fabio Aru, and Domenico Pozzovivo are others to watch for Stage 4. Lastly, don’t completely count out Nacer Bouhanni. It will be a very tall order for the Frenchman to survive the steep stuff, but he looked mostly recovered from his Stage 2 crash in the sprint finish to Stage 3, and he has at times shown an ability to handle tough finales like this one.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Dan Martin | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 4. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 24, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Sèvres › Paris – 109.5km

Chris Froome may have effectively sealed his 2015 Tour de France win, but the race reaches its official conclusion in Paris on Stage 21. Only 109.5km in total, the pack starts in Sèvres and then rides about 40km into Paris, where they begin ten laps of an urban circuit, finishing on the Champs-Élysées. The first third or so of the stage is essentially a procession to celebrate the race and Froome’s all-but-sewn-up overall victory. Once the peloton enters the Paris, riders will start to attempt to break clear of the pack for one last shot at glory in the world’s biggest bike race, and then the sprint teams will gradually wind up the pace. Things get very fast in the final few laps.

The final kilometer of the circuit has a large s-curve that veers left and then right again with around 500 meters to go, but after that it’s a straight run to the line where we can expect a high-speed sprint finale.

With a bit of rain in the forecast for the afternoon, there is a slight chance of wet roads at the finish.

Though the Tour’s final stage always starts out with relative calm, the stage victory in Paris is the most valuable stage win in the sport for the sprinters. There will be plenty of attempts to get clear on the urban roads, but don’t expect any attackers to get too much room. The Champs-Élysées is all about the quick men and a big bunch kick.

On results, one sprinter has been head and shoulders above crowd in this Tour: André Greipel. In a mass sprint, Mark Cavendish, the only rider who has beaten Greipel in a previous bunch kick in the 2015 Tour, looks to be the only one with a real chance of taking him on again on Stage 21.

Greipel definitely has the edge on win record so far in the 2015 Tour—Greipel has a three-to-one win advantage in that department. He’s been on terrific form so far in this race. However, both of Greipel’s first two stage wins came against a poorly-led-out Mark Cavendish, and Greipel’s third win was against a field that did not include Cavendish, who had been dropped from the pack much earlier in the day. Prior to this Tour, the younger Cav has typically had the better of Greipel. In short, there are reasons to like Cavendish’s chances despite his relative lack of success so far.

Both riders are without their main leadout men going into Stage 21, with Lotto-Soudal’s Greg Henderson and Etixx-QuickStep’s Mark Renshaw both having abandoned the race. I see this as almost a dead heat, but based on peak ability and past performances on the Champs-Élysées, I give a very, very slight edge to Mark Cavendish, who has won on this stage plenty of times before.

Behind the two top-tier sprinters in this Tour are plenty of hopeful quick men hoping to steal the day—but it’s hard to like anyone’s chances in this high-speed finale other than the two fastest riders in the race. Peter Sagan has come close in the bunch sprints, in the Top 4 of each of the race’s four bunch kicks so far with two close runner-up rides among those results. For all the talk you’ll hear from observers about him “not being a pure sprinter,” Sagan has an impressive turn of speed and can never be counted out, especially after a few days in the mountains that might have softened the legs of his rivals.

The same is true of John Degeknolb, who ran 2nd behind Greipel on Stage 15. He’s gotten better as the race has gone on, and, as he’s among the toughest sprinters in the peloton, he will probably be less depleted from the Tour’s visit to the Alps than most. Alexander Kristoff has not been as strong in this Tour as he was last year, but he came close to a Champs-Élysées win behind Marcel Kittel in last year’s Tour and also has endurance in spades.

Arnaud Démare, Bryan Coquard, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who will have a chance at success in the bunch gallop that will likely close out the 2015 Tour de France.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2015 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of the Tour, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the VeloHuman Facebook page.

While the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still previews and podcasts to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for big races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2015. The race preview and the pre-race podcast for the always exciting Clásica de San Sebastián are only a few days away!

-Dane Cash

July 25, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Mende › Valence – 183km

Sandwiched between two days with relatively difficult late climbs, the 15th stage of the Tour de France has a profile that could give the sprinters one last chance at stage glory before Paris—but things will likely be harder than they look on the road to Valence.

The riders will be climbing immediately off the startline, with an uncategorized uphill drag into the Cat. 3 Côte de Badaroux on tap right away. Expect some of the more aggressive climbing specialists to attempt an early break on the way up. From the top it’s a relatively flat road to the next categorized climb almost 60 kilometers later, but said Cat. 4, the Col du Bez, is immediately followed by another, the Col de la Croix de Bauzon. Then comes a very long descent down to the intermediate sprint at Aubenas.

From there, it’s only a short way to the foot of the final climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Col de l’Escrinet, 7.9km long at a 5.8% average gradient. From the top of the climb it’s another long descent, about 25 kilometers, into a flat and relatively straightforward final 30 kilometers.

The climbs are not especially hard, and the long flat stretch into the finish line will give the sprinters hope for a bunch kick, but they’ll have to reel in the breakaway first. The race is about to enter a challenging stretch of Alpine stages, and the peloton might be hoping to make it through Stage 15 without too much trouble on the way to one more medium mountain stage and then a much-needed rest day before the GC action picks up.

If the break is caught, it will be thanks to a few dedicated sprinters’ teams hoping for a last shot at stage glory before the Alps, and the chase will have likely taken something out of the pack, which could give a boost to the stronger, more versatile quick men despite the pan-flat finish. The Col de l’Escrinet is not an easy bump in the road either, and it could further wear down some of the heavier quick men.

Etixx-QuickStep will have the option of riding hard to keep Mark Cavendish in play for a sprint, or riding less hard to get the more versatile Matteo Trentin into position for a bunch kick. Cav is probably the first option, and if he’s in the lead group in the final few kilometers, he will be hard to beat, but that’s far from a given. Trentin is a strong alternative.

André Greipel and Cavendish seem pretty closely matched right now, but I think Cavendish still has the speed to win all things being equal (though the disparity in positioning in the first two bunch sprints stages in the Tour are good reminders that Tour de France sprints don’t occur in a vacuum). In any case, a lot of things will have to go right for both of them for that to be the scenario that decides the stage.

Peter Sagan has come remarkably close to stage victories even on the flattest days so far in this race, thanks to his excellent form at the moment. He’ll have a chance in a big bunch sprint here, but a day spent in the breakaway on Stage 14 and the brutal finishing climb at the end of that stage probably took something out of him. Having to go for every intermediate sprint doesn’t really help. It seems unlikely that he’ll be in the break again, so Sagan, like the other quick men, will probably need to rely on the catch being made to have any shot at victory, and then he’ll need to beat other quick men who may have a bit more in the tank.

John Degenkolb should be in prime position to take advantage of a potential sprint after a moderately challenging day, and a probably tired Peter Sagan. He’s quick enough to win sprint finishes as it is, and the parcours and race situation are likely to weigh in his favor. Stage 15 offers a much better chance for Degenkolb to pick up his first career Tour win than the finale in paris will be—though that’s all assuming the break is caught.

Alexander Kristoff has not had quite the same level of success in the 2015 Tour that he had in 2014, but the stage suits his skillset. Arnaud Démare, Davide Cimolai, Tyler Farrar, Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews and Bryan Coquard are others with a chance at success if this comes down to the pack.

Naming potential breakaway candidates for this stage is tough because it’s not quite as difficult a stage as those that have preceded it, or those that are about to follow, lengthening the already long list of riders who could have a shot at taking a win from afar.

Simon Geschke has a fast finishing kick and a knack for getting up the road—he’s come close to big Grand Tour wins in the past and this is an excellent parcours for him.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages, but his ability to get up the road and his powerful finishing kick make him a good breakaway contender for Stage 15.

The same could be said for Sylvain Chavanel—he has not made much of an impression on this Tour de France but the Stage 15 profile suits him very well, with plenty of space for him to power clear for a solo bid, or potentially hold out for a small group sprint from a breakaway.

Jan Barta, Ryder Hesjedal, Jan Bakelants, Ramunas Navardauskas, Thomas De Gendt, Lars Bak, Michal Kwiatkowski, and Sep Vanmarcke are others to watch out for in a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 15.

-Dane Cash

July 18, 2015