Tag: Peter Sagan

Tour de France 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Évry › Paris – 137.5 km

With the time trial done and dusted (and won, unsurprisingly, by Tony Martin), only the Champs-Élysées finale remains in the 2014 Tour de France. Just 137.5 kilometers in length and quite flat, Stage 21 starts out in parade-like fashion, with champagne toasts and photo opportunities, and the pace remains pleasant until the peloton reaches Paris, when things start to speed up as the riders enter a 7 kilometer finishing circuit and begin an eight-lap journey to the end of the Tour de France. A few aggressive riders will attempt to break away from the pack on the circuit, but as the eighth lap and the final crossing of the line on the Champs-Élysées get closer and closer, the sprint teams will ramp up the pace, making it virtually impossible to stay away. Victory in the final stage of the Tour de France is one of the most prestigious prizes in the sport, and it’s rare that anything stands in the way of a sprinters’ battle royale on the Champs-Élysées.

Marcel Kittel of Giant-Shimano won the Champs-Élysées finale of last year’s race, and he is in the hunt for his fourth stage win at this year’s Tour de France. All three of his victories so far came very early in the race, as he did struggle a bit on some of the tougher stages after the first week, but Stage 21 doesn’t have the sort of profile that is likely to take much out of the massive German sprinter. Kittel has established himself as a dominant force in tests of pure speed, and he will be the rider to beat on the Champs-Élysées.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel does have a stage win under his belt in this year’s Tour, but he will be hungry for another here. In a drag race, few can match Marcel Kittel, but Greipel is probably the rider with the best chance of doing so. He has not done the best job of positioning himself in the many sprint stages of this race so far, but he has a strong support train and this is not a stage with too many obstacles for the powerhouse fast men to overcome on their way to the final few hundred meters. If he can nail the run-in, Greipel can challenge for victory on Stage 21.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff typically prefers fast finishes that follow hard days in the saddle, but he’s also got plenty of pure sprinting ability. He’s looked particularly strong in this race, benefitting from a team that is more focused on his success than they usually are. 6th on the final stage of the 2013 edition of the Tour, he could contend for the win on the Champs-Élysées this year.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will have one last chance at a stage victory in the 2014 Tour de France here in Paris. He doesn’t have the top speed of Marcel Kittel, but he was runner-up to Mark Cavendish in the final stage of the 2012 Tour, and given his talent and tendency to position himself well for the charge to the line, he can never be counted out.

OPQS’s Mark Renshaw knows how to deliver a result on the Champs-Élysées, even though in the past his biggest successes have been all about providing an excellent leadout to someone else. This year, he’ll have a rare chance to be the featured rider on the final stage of the Tour, and he’s shown impressive speed in this race so far. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare has struggled to make it to the finish with the lead group in many of the sprint days in this race, but the journey to the line is quite short on this stage. If he’s there in the final few hundred meters, he could be in the mix. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has racked up quite a few Top 10s so far in the Tour, and as a star of the track, he’ll enjoy the chance for a drag race to the line.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, OGE’s Michael Albasini, and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin are outsiders who could land strong results on Stage 21, while Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will be ready to step up for his team as a quality alternative should anything happen to Marcel Kittel.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VeloHuman Facebook page.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 26, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Maubourguet Pays du Val d’Adour › Bergerac – 208.5 km

Vincenzo Nibali closed out the final high mountain stage of the Tour de France with his fourth stage win, and now the peloton heads to flatter roads. At first glance, Stage 19 looks certain to be one for the sprinting heavyweights, with a mostly flat profile from start to finish. However, there could be a few complicating factors. For one, 208.5 kilometers of racing is no walk in the park. A long day, especially after some very intense climbing, could lead to some pained legs. At the end of this lengthy journey, the peloton must get over a few uncategorized bumps and then a Category 4 climb that comes about 13 km from the finish. It’s short at only 1.3 kilometers, but steep, with an average gradient of 7.6%. And, while the last few kilometers are flat, there are some twists and turns approaching the finish line. On top of these challenges, there is a chance of rain in the forecast, which always adds an element of uncertainty to the equation.

On this profile, the sprinters’ teams should be able to control the race on Stage 19, and with a bunch gallop the likeliest outcome, Marcel Kittel, the fastest fast man in the Tour, has to be a top favorite. Giant-Shimano came here to win on the flats, and the entire team will be working to put Kittel in position to win a sprint finale. In a straight-up drag race, he’s pretty much unbeatable. As we saw on Stage 15, however, a combination of factors like distance and weather can take its toll on the heavy German. The Cat. 4 comes far enough from the finish that it shouldn’t cause too many problems for Kittel, but if the teams of the more versatile sprinters set a hard pace over the ascent and drive it all the way to the tricky final few kilometers, it’s possible that Kittel could have trouble getting into position for the charge to the line. GSH has a great backup plan in John Degenkolb, who has looked sharp in the past few sprint stages, and who is less likely to be troubled by the bumps in the road.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel is a bit more capable of coping with the harder days than Marcel Kittel, and at his best, he has a finishing kick few can match. Still, his endurance will be put to the test if teams like Cannondale and Katusha decide to go full gas as the day nears its conclusion. Greipel does have the support of a strong leadout, which will be crucial for the technical run-in to the line.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff took a strong second victory on Stage 15, which, though it was bit longer, shared similarities with this stage, a lengthy journey coming after some tough days in the mountains. Kristoff thrives in nasty weather, and his pair of wins in this Tour have put his impressive top speed on display. Stage 19 will be a good opportunity for him to pick up a third victory.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan has come so close so many times in this Tour de France, but he has yet to pick up the win he’s been hunting. The likely sprint finale on the Champs-Élysées, which will come at the end of a much easier day in the saddle, will be less favorable to Sagan; this is the better opportunity to get that victory. Like Kristoff, he’ll hope for the hardest race possible. He is very adept at navigating challenging corners, and that gives him an edge in the final few kilometers of the race.

Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Albasini, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare are other fast men with the potential to get involved. Mark Renshaw has placed well in the sprints so far, though OPQS could favor the chances of Matteo Trentin here; it’s also possible they’ll try to send Jan Bakelants, Michal Kwiatkowski, Niki Terpstra, or Tony Martin up the road and hope the tricky finale makes for a difficult chase. After so many tough mountains stages and with a crucial time trial on the menu for the GC men, it’s not completely out of the question that a well-planned move might be able to hold out here on Stage 19. Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Tommy Voeckler, Jens Keukeleire, and Sylvain Chavanel are other strong riders who might have this sort of tactic in mind.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

There are only a few stages left in the 2014 Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of every one of them. Also check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 19.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 24, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Tallard › Nîmes – 222 km

After a pair of tough days in the Alps (closed out by Rafal Majka’s stage victory in Risoul), the peloton will like the look of the Stage 15 profile: there isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Tallard to Nîmes. With the Tour coming down out of the Alps and headed towards the Mediterranean coast, there are a few long downhill sections on the menu, and the final 65 kilometers are about as flat as a pancake. However, those hunting for success on Stage 15 can’t let the profile lull them into a false sense of security: the weather report is calling for rain, and crosswinds are always a possibility here. A number of roundabouts and a few turns near the finish could further complicate things. It’s also one of the longest stages in the Tour at 222 kilometers. A bunch sprint seems the most likely scenario, but it’s not a given that everyone will make it to the line, and even if all the familiar faces are there, those who are more capable of coping with tough conditions could be fresher for the finale.

Still, although there is a long and possibly wet day ahead, Marcel Kittel will be the top favorite for Stage 15. He’s the fastest sprinter in the race and he has the best leadout, to boot. With no hills to put him in difficulty, his rivals will have to hope that he tires during the long the trip to the line, or that the weather causes enough chaos to force splits in the pack. If Kittel is there in the finale, he’ll be hard to beat. If he isn’t there, teammate John Degenkolb is a strong alternative.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel had a slow start to this year’s Tour de France, but he quelled concerns of form with a convincing stage win in Reims. He will be extra hungry after a crash with Sylvain Chavanel put him out of contention for a sprint finish on Stage 11. He looks like the only rider who might challenge Kittel in a drag race.

After his brilliant stage victory in Oyonnax, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff might be third favorite anyway, but a nasty weather report will be especially to his liking, as will the length of the journey to the line. He is a proven performer in bad conditions and he is less prone to fatigue than his rivals. He will have another nice opportunity on Stage 15. Peter Sagan will also be pleased with the weather report. In a drag race, his chances are slim against Kittel and Greipel, but his elite bike handling skills and impressive endurance should help him position himself to take the best possible shot at victory here on Stage 15. He’s running out of opportunities to take a win in this Tour de France. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare appears to going strong again after a rough first week. He’s another tough rider who shouldn’t mind a classics-esque day.

OPQS’s Mark Renshaw has picked up some nice results filling in for Mark Cavendish, and his team is particularly good at taking advantage of poor conditions. An attempt to force a split before the finish (or a sneaky attack from Tony Martin) wouldn’t be all that surprising. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has not placed higher than 4th on a sprint stage in this race, but he has always been in the mix. With the constant possibility of crashes on rain-soaked roads, being in the right place at the right time might be all it takes to make the leap from 4th to 1st. Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, and OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini will be outside contenders for the likely sprint finish.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! With a rest day on tap after Stage 15, the next preview will be up on Monday, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 19, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Bourg-en-Bresse › Saint-Étienne – 185.5 km

The undulating finale of the Tour’s eleventh stage served as an excellent launching pad for Tony Gallopin to outfox Peter Sagan and a charging pack of fast finishers. Late climbs again await the peloton on Stage 12. The first of two major ascents near the end of the day is a 15.3 kilometer Category 3 climb that averages 3.3%. It’s not the sort of steep wall that the puncheurs will love, but it is long enough to put some of the heavier riders under pressure. It is followed by a fast descent and then a 9.8 kilometer Cat. 4 that averages 2.9%. Again, the gradient itself is not all that demanding, but it will be a long way for the sprinters to travel on an incline, especially if there are teams driving the pace up front. After another descent, things flatten out for the final few kilometers toward the finish.

The bumpy road to Saint-Étienne will give a breakaway some chance of going the distance on Stage 12, but there are quite a few teams in this Tour de France whose featured sprinters have decent climbing legs. If those teams cooperate, it will be hard for anyone who gets up the road to survive. As such, while the opportunists will certainly put in the effort to make this interesting all the way to the line, the favorites will be the fast finishers with the uphill talent to make it over the late climbs without losing ground to the pack.

As usual, chief among the more versatile sprinter types is Cannondale’s Peter Sagan. His frustration at being constantly forced to decide between closing down moves on his own or letting them go clear and hoping others will do the chasing is mounting, but Stage 12 may be his best opportunity for victory left in this race. The final climbs aren’t as steep as they were in the eleventh stage, the last descent isn’t as tricky, and there is a longer flat run-in to the line. The race should be a bit easier to control. Still, easier doesn’t mean easy: Cannondale will need some help from other teams to keep the early breakaway and any attacks on the climbs on a short leash, and even if things come together for a sprint, the young Slovakian will probably be facing some stiff competition.

The list of riders who will hope to rival Sagan if this does comes down to a sprint is headlined by Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb. These late hills will probably too much for the team’s other star fast-man Marcel Kittel, but they has a capable alternative in Degenkolb. Runner-up on Stage 11, he is clearly feeling much better now than he was feeling last week. If he is, indeed, back to full strength, Sagan will have his hands full on Stage 12: Degenkolb at peak form should be able to handle these climbs, and he has been extremely fast this year, coming very close to beating Mark Cavendish twice in the Tour of California, and rather handily defeating Peter Sagan in a sprint in Gent-Wevelgem.

Orica-GreenEdge has an excellent lineup for the hilly stages, but they are still without a win in this Tour de France. This will be another good opportunity pick up that elusive victory. Simon Gerrans has landed some strong results in the reduced bunch sprints we’ve seen, and Michael Albasini is an excellent alternative with a similar skillset. OGE could try to put one in the break and let the other hang back in the pack to cover both potential scenarios.

OPQS’s Matteo Trentin continues to deliver impressive performances in the sprints on the hilly days, following up his earlier stage win with a nice 3rd place on Stage 11. He will be strong option for his team here on Stage 12, with the added versatility of being able to jump into the early move if that looks to be the smart decision. Michal Kwiatkowski will, as usual, be another versatile card for the team to play.

Movistar’s JJ Rojas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati should enjoy an opportunity to battle a somewhat reduced bunch if this comes to a sprint. Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel, on the other hand, will be put to the limit trying to make it to the line, but it could happen, and it should go without saying that he’ll be a top favorite for a sprint if he’s still in the pack. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare could hold on for a bunch finish, and they will be dangerous if they are there. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, OPQS’s Mark Renshaw, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler have a chance to be in the mix as well.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, Cofidis’s Julien Simon, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, and FDJ’s Arthur Vichot are fast finishers but they’ll have a hard time against the top sprinters. They will have to decide whether to try their luck in the bunch or attempt a long-range attack on Stage 12. It will take a strong group and some tactical riding for a move off the front to take this one from a hungry pack of sprinters. Strong candidates for success who will likely see a long-distance strike as their only chance at a stage win include Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, OPQS’s Tony Martin and Jan Bakelants, and IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Simon Gerrans

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 12, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 16, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Besançon › Oyonnax – 187.5 km

The Tour’s eleventh stage follows its first rest day, a break the peloton desperately needed after Monday’s brutal stage that saw the abandonment of Alberto Contador and a hard-fought uphill battle (won by Vincenzo Nibali) to close out the day. The Stage 11 profile is not a flat one, but its hills pale in comparison to the Vosges climbs that injected pain into hundreds of legs over the weekend. It will be a welcome change for most of the riders in the Tour de France. Still, the climbs will play a role in how Stage 11 plays out; the toughest ascents of the stage come in quick succession as the day reaches its conclusion, with four categorized climbs less than 30 kilometers apart. Following the final Cat. 3, there is an uncategorized bump in the road and then a technical descent to Oyonnax and the finish line.

The rolling profile makes this another good opportunity for a breakaway to succeed. It’s probably just a bit too challenging for the heavier sprinters, which will reduce the amount of fierpower committed to the chase. The barrage of late hills late and the long descent that follows will make it difficult for anyone to control the race even if they tried. However, this sort of intermediate stage is one of the few (along with the next day’s stage) in the race that isn’t likely to be dominated by a pure sprinter or a climbing star, making for a more open competition: almost every team in the Tour de France will try to take advantage of the opportunity to pick off a win. If a few strong teams miss the break, they’ll commit to reeling things in, and though this profile is lumpy, it’s not so lumpy as to guarantee the break’s success.

The “favorites” (with the usual caveat that that is a loaded term on breakaway-friendly stages) will be decent climbers with either fast finishes or good soloing skills to try to escape late and maintain a gap on the descent.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is the number one rider to watch on the stage. He shouldn’t struggle with the climbs, he’s a masterful descender, and he’s obviously a fast finisher. Dealing with the day’s breakaway will be his biggest challenge. He may try to get into the break himself, or he may go for this one from the pack, which would mean a lot of time on the front for his team. That versatility is what makes him such a strong contender.

The same is true for both Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge. In Stage 7’s sprint finish, Gerrans looked to have recovered the strength he lost in his opening stage crash. The Stage 11 profile suits him perfectly, with an opportunity to escape on a late climb, or the possibility of a reduced sprint. Teammate Michael Albasini is another excellent option: the Swiss veteran is an expert at picking the right moves, and he’s got a fast finish, too. Orica-GreenEdge will have a lot of flexibility with this duo: they can try to put one of them into the breakaway and let the other ride it out in the pack, to cover both scenarios. Whether or not the stage goes to the break or to the peloton could hinge on whether Peter Sagan and at least one Orica-GreenEdge rider make it into the move: if not, Cannondale and OGE can be expected to get involved in the chase early.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara would be another top choice, but he has abandoned the race to focus on other objectives. Fellow classics protagonist BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet is still here, however, and he could be a contender thanks to his blend of good climbing legs, strong solo prowess, and a fast finish. OPQS has the quality duo of Jan Bakelants and Matteo Trentin to take on the difficult challenge of deciding between breakaway and peloton; both are excellent on hilly days and Trentin in particular is a dangerous option if he is in whatever group is fighting for the win when the day nears its conclusion. FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Cofidis’s Julien Simon, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, and Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas are other top contenders who could win Stage 11 from either the break or the peloton.

If things do come back together at the end, it could be all about which of the big name sprinters survive the late climbs. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb might be a top favorite were it not for the injury he suffered early on in this race. He’s still a rider to watch; normally, he’d be targeting this stage, which is probably too difficult for Marcel Kittel. Fellow German Andre Greipel can climb better than most people realize. This still might be a bit too much to ask, but if things regroup for a sprint and he does survive the bumpy road, he will obviously be a top favorite. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff has a chance to hold on over the climbs, though this stage may not be long enough to favor his skillset even if he does. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare can normally handle a hill or two, but as of yet he has not looked recovered from injuries sustained crashing earlier in the Tour. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Morkov also have a shot of making it over the late bumps to contest a sprint if it should come to that.

Other candidates will be more reliant on the breakaway’s chances. In addition to their duo of versatile fast finishers (Bennati and Morkov), Tinkoff-Saxo suddenly has a stable of options for breakaway success now that team leader Alberto Contador is out of the race. They’ll still be hoping to get something out of the Tour de France, and all-rounder talents Mick Rogers, Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka will be dangerous stagehunters with breakaway ambitions. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler could give the early move another go after spending a long (and ultimately unsuccessful) day out front on Stage 10. His teammate Cyril Gautier may be a better option; the younger Gautier has looked sharp so far, while Voeckler has not looked his best. IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel is always a strong candidate to go for a long-distance win. On this profile and with Degenkolb still questionable, Tom Dumoulin may be the best option for Giant-Shimano; he’s been impressive on all levels of his game in this race; his soloing ability is well-known, but he has also flashed a decent sprint on two separate stages and he is showing off his able climbing legs with his Top 30 position on GC. Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Tony Martin, Trek’s Jens Voigt, and Cofidis’s Nicolas Edet are other potential long-range protagonists who could have a shot.

On the off-chance that the GC contenders try to mix things up on Stage 11, watch out for a fast finisher like Alejandro Valverde, a strong descender like Vincenzo Nibali, or Michal Kwiatkowski, who qualifies as both.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Simon Gerrans | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 11, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 15, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Gérardmer › Mulhouse – 170 km

With the peloton content to give the morning breakaway its chance at success, Blel Kadri of AG2R took victory on Stage 8 after a long day out front. Stage 9, the Tour’s second stage in the hilly Vosges region of France, is very likely to set up another breakaway victory. A constant barrage of climbs awaits from the very beginning of the day, with six categorized ascents in the first 127 kilometers. The vertical gain will add up as the journey wears on, with the penultimate categorized climb of 10.8 kilometers at 5.4% serving as a particularly challenging test that could see action among the General Classification contenders. After a long descent from Grand Ballon, there are approximately 20 kilometers of flat to close out the stage.

Stage 9 has the undulating profile that breakaway specialists love to see. Even if the strong teams in the race feel inclined to keep the break on a short leash, they will have a difficult time controlling things as the road constantly alternates between ups and downs. The peloton will hit the foot of a tough Category 2 climb only 3 kilometers into the day, and from there it’s going to be a fierce battle to get into the morning breakaway, given the likelihood of long-distance success. It’s never a certainty that the morning break will survive even on a day like this, and if things do come come together as the stage nears its conclusion there are a few riders who stand out as favorites from the pack, but it seems more likely that the winner of Stage 9 will come from a long-range move.

As with any breakaway-friendly stage, it will be extremely difficult to predict which riders will make it into the successful move. The likeliest protagonists for Stage 9 will be those opportunists who possess the well-rounded skillset to a handle a long day of uphill challenges and fast descents. A quick finish could come in handy given the flat run-in to the line. A number of talented all-rounders come to mind as possible protagonists.

Jan Bakelants of OPQS has a very versatile skillset, and he is particularly adept at getting into the right moves when he sees a chance for long-range success. He did just that in the Criterium du Dauphine this year, winning the fourth stage after spending the day in a sizeable break. This could be his opportunity to pick up a second career Tour de France victory. He is an underrated climber with a few WorldTour GC Top 10s to his name, but he also has an excellent sprint, which will make him dangerous at this finish. Teammate Matteo Trentin could also look to add to his collection of Tour de France victories here; this is a tough profile, but he’s a surprisingly strong climber, and he showed just how good he is in a sprint with his Stage 7 victory over Peter Sagan. And never count out time trialing machine Tony Martin, who, in addition to being the world’s best solo artist, can also climb surprisingly well.

Orica-GreenEdge always has a variety of options for a day like this. Michael Albasini is a rider capable of handling almost any terrain, and he can also sprint with the very best. He is a proven expert at picking the right early move. That array of skills, combined with the excellent form he is showing right now, makes him a good candidate to try something from afar. Simon Gerrans appears to have recovered from his opening stage crash; should he get into the right move, he will be tough to drop, and deadly in a sprint finale. Simon Clarke, a breakaway specialist who won the King of the Mountains competition in the 2012 Vuelta, is yet another option.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, and Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and Ramunas Navardauskas all share an affinity for the hilly days, and all of them are quick in a reduced sprint; any one of them could be looking to get off the front early on Stage 9.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak has shown an ability to hang with some of the top climbers in the peloton in one-week races, but he is hunting stages in the Tour de France. If he gets into the morning break, his companions off the front could have trouble staying on his wheel when the road goes up. Teammate Joaquim Rodriguez, also hunting stages in the race, deserves a mention as well, though he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon won the Alpe d’Huez stage of the 2013 Tour de France and will be looking for further success this year. He has spent a lot of time at the back of the peloton so far, but perhaps he is just saving energy for one climactic move.

On a stage as breakaway-friendly as this, it’s hard to be confident in any list of potential long-range protagonists that doesn’t include every rider in the race, but since naming almost two hundred names wouldn’t be practical, I’ll mention only a few more riders that I think have the right qualities for success: Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Trek’s Jens Voigt, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti are always worthy of a mention when a long-range victory seems likely, while Europcar’s Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, IAM Cycling’s Sebastien Reichenbach, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all strong climbers who could see this as their opportunity for glory. To close out the list, though it’s hard to imagine that any one of them won’t be exhausted after a tough day out front on Stage 8, Simon Yates, Sylvain Chavanel, and Blel Kadri could look to get involved in the break for a second day in a row.

Should the GC contenders decide to put each other under real pressure on the slopes, it is possible that the increase in pace will close down those off the front before the end of the day. If that should happen, the fast finishers still in the pack could be the main beneficiaries in terms of stage-winning glory, as a flat final 20 kilometers will make it hard for any one rider to escape. Some of the aforementioned contenders (those who excel in the sprints) could decide stay in the pack, hoping for this scenario and a chance to battle with the speedier GC types, foremost of whom has to be Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde. Given his impressive finishing kick, he will be a top favorite if this all comes back together before the line. OPQS’s Michal Kwiatkowski may be his only rival in the sprints among the GC contenders, though he struggled on Stage 8, possibly showing signs of fatigue after expending a lot of energy for his and his teammates’ stage ambitions during the first week. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa are also very quick to the line. Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Pierre Rolland don’t have the same closing speed and probably wouldn’t be in the mix in a sprint finish, but they could try to get up and over the final climb ahead of their rivals and then try to maintain a gap to the end.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan gets a final mention all to himself. A lot of things would have to go right for him to contend here, but remember his Stage 3 victory in the 2013 Tour de Suisse; he stuck with Rui Costa, Roman Kreuziger, and Mathias Frank over a Category 1 climb (when even Bauke Mollema and Dan Martin were dropped) to take the win. If there’s one thing Sagan has taught us, it is that he can never be counted out. There are some hard climbs in this profile, but don’t be surprised to see him going for it anyway, even if that means trying to get into the day’s breakaway.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Albasini | 2. Simon Spilak | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 9, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 12, 2014