Tag: Peter Sagan

Tour de France 2014 Preview

After months of buildup and weeks of tune-up races, the main event is upon us. We’ve gone a few days without any WorldTour racing (though hopefully you have had a chance to enjoy the VeloHuman Up-and-comer Q&A Series in the meantime), but the 2014 Tour de France finally kicks off in Leeds on Saturday, July 5th. As usual, in addition to the overall preview, VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the race. You can find all of those stage previews here. Also, you can follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the Tour.

The Route

The route of this year’s Tour de France is an intriguing one: in keeping with recent editions, the 101st Tour de France waits a full week to throw any serious mountains at the peloton, but there are some real challenges on the menu before the road reaches high altitudes. The first stage of the race is a mostly flat affair through Yorkshire that is likely to end in a sprint. The second stage may not have high mountains, but with nine categorized climbs on the docket, including an 800 meter, 10.8% bump just 5 kilometers before the finish line, it should be a thrillfest, and the GC contenders will need to be alert. Stage 3, the Tour’s last day in England, is another likely day for the sprinters, and the also mostly flat Stage 4 will probably end in the same way. Stage 5, however, will be one of the most intriguing of this year’s Tour de France.

Nine cobbled sections will pose a tough challenge to the lightweight GC contenders on Stage 5.

To add excitement to the 101st edition of the race, the organizers added a cobbled stage that will travel over some of the same challenging terrain that features in spring’s Paris-Roubaix. The Tour stage isn’t as long as the Monument Classic, but the route travels over sections of the Carrefour and Mons-en-Pévèle and plenty of other difficult sectors, and the bumpy roads could bounce the lightweight GC types all over the road. It will be a white-knuckle ride all the way to the finish, and attacks will be coming hot and heavy from classics specialists given the rare chance to shine on their favored terrain in the Tour de France.

Stage 6 is flat enough to be a likely sprinters’ target. Stage 7 is mostly flat as well, but a few late bumps could put the heavier sprinters under pressure. The peloton finally hits a real uphill finish on Stage 8, though time gaps should be small, as the closing climb up the Gerardmer is less than 2 kilometers long. Stage 9 includes some tough climbs, including a Cat. 1 ascent; it could be a day for the breakaway or for the versatile fast-finisher types, with a mostly flat final 20 kilometers, but GC attacks aren’t out of the question. However, the overall contenders may opt to save energy for Stage 10, which will throw tough ascents at the peloton all day long.

Stage 10 will be a roller coaster ride of tough climbs and difficult descents, offering plenty of opportunities for attacks to go free.

At 161.5 kilometers, Stage 10 is not particularly long, but four Cat. 1 climbs and a few smaller ascents stand between the riders and the finish line. For most of the day, the riders will be facing tough climbing or tricky descending, and that is likely to encourage aggressive riding, especially with a rest day to follow. After the day off, Stage 11 is a bumpy one but it probably won’t have GC implications. The same is true for Stage 12.

The Tour heads to the Alps for its first real high mountain test on Stage 13. An HC-rated finish awaits. Stage 14 will not offer respite, starting with a very long Cat. 1, followed by the 19 kilometer, 6% average grade Hors Categorie climb up the Col d’Izoard, and then ending with a Cat. 1 climb to Risoul. The peloton will be glad for the flat day on Stage 15, as well as the rest day that follows.

On Stage 18, the final mountain stage of the 2014 Tour de France, the riders must overcome both the Col du Tourmalet and a Hautacam summit finish.

Stage 16 is the first of three days in the Pyrenees, and will challenge the riders with a late HC-rated climb followed by a little over 20 kilometers downhill to the finish line. Stage 17 is tougher, with three Cat. 1 climbs on the way to an Hors Categorie summit finish. Stage 18 will be the last chance for the climbers to pick up time, and what a chance it will be: the pack will climb the fearsome Col du Tourmalet, zoom down the other side, and then ascend to Hautacam and the finish line.

Stage 20’s race against the clock is a very long one at 54 kilometers. Gaps between the GC riders will be significant.

A mostly flat Stage 19 will allow the GC contenders to recharge before taking on the decisive time trial on Stage 20. It’s a long one at 54 kilometers, and it could seriously shake up the General Classification. The parcours is hilly, which will offer some consolation to the climbers, but riders with big engines will have the advantage over this distance. The GC will be decided as the last rider crosses the line on Stage 20, with the classic Champs-Élysées sprint on tap for the twenty-first and final stage of the race.

All told, this year’s route may seem a bit more climber-friendly than those of recent years, but a cobbled stage and a long time trial at the end of three tough weeks of racing will make a well-rounded skillset a requirement for victory. And although the high mountains don’t come until the middle stages of the Tour de France, some early challenges will keep everyone on their toes from the beginning of the race. It should be a thrilling ride all the way from Leeds to Paris.

The General Classification Contenders

The Tour de France is a long race, and the mountains and cobbles along the journey could shake things up at a moment’s notice, but in terms of the yellow jersey fight, there are two competitors who stand out as the clear favorites. Team Sky’s Chris Froome and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador are a cut above their opponents, climbing and time trialing in a league of their own and with powerful teams backing their bids for yellow. Between them however, things are very tight.

Froome was dominant in last year’s Tour de France, and his convincing victory came after a dominant spring that saw him establish his supremacy across several races. Meanwhile, would-be top rival Alberto Contador never seemed to find his top level in the run-up to the 2013 Tour, and he was unable to get to that level during the race either. At least so far, 2014 has been a different story entirely. Alberto Contador has been the best GC rider in the sport, winning races like Tirreno-Adriatico (where he put his uphill wizardry on full display) and the Vuelta al Pais Vasco (where he flashed stellar chrono form) and carrying that good shape through June’s Criterium du Dauphine. He is a proven winner of the Tour de France who seems to have refound the ability he lacked in 2013. Meanwhile, Chris Froome has struggled to overcome hurdle after hurdle, as injury and illness have waylaid his plans throughout the year. That isn’t to say that he hasn’t flashed his brilliance here and there; he took victory in the Tour de Romandie and looked very sharp in the Dauphine prior to a crash. Still, compared to last year’s bulletproof campaign, this year has been a difficult one for the defending champion, which makes his grip on the title of pre-race favorite a more tenuous one.

If forced to pick a favorite, I’d still name Chris Froome (though I believe that his edge is razor-thin). The ability he has shown over the past year when at peak form is just impossible to ignore, and he has displayed enough strength when healthy in 2014 to at least maintain his position as pre-race favorite. He was clearly the better rider last year, and while his inability to dominate the early season this year raises questions, his many ailments have certainly played their part in slowing him down, and he appears healthy now. Richie Porte and Mikel Nieve are top-notch teammates for the climbs who could find themselves lurking at the fringes of the Top 10 in their own right, and Geraint Thomas and Vasil Kiryienka are powerful pace-setters on the hilly and flat days. Contador’s bid for victory, meanwhile, took a serious hit this past week when it was announced that star teammate Roman Kreuziger would not be riding in the Tour due to an ongoing investigaton into biological passport irregularities. Contador will no longer be able to enjoy the luxury of having last year’s 5th place overall finisher at his side. Replacement Rafal Majka is obviously also very talented but he will likely be fatigued after a hard Giro. Mick Rogers and Nicolas Roche, though excellent support riders, are also coming off the same tough Giro. In short, despite Contador’s stellar season, he will still have something to prove against the defending champion; regardless, I’ll reiterate that this should be a close fight and it’s extremely tough to call between these two stars right now.

Behind them is a pair of second-tier favorites who are themselves on a level above the rest of the GC hopefuls: Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali and Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde look to be the top contenders after Froome and Contador, and though victory will be a tall order for either of them, they should at least be seen as heavy favorites to fight it out for the final spot on the podium. Nibali had a brilliant 2013 campaign, winning the Giro d’Italia convincingly and taking runner-up honors in the Vuelta a España, but he has been unable to find as much success in stage races this year. Still, he proved in 2013 that at peak form he is one of the top climbers in the world, and a great descender and a master tactician to boot. He’ll have two weeks to ride himself into Grand Tour form, and it’s not as if 5th in the Tour de Romandie and 7th in the Dauphine are bad results, per se. And remember, Joaquim Rodriguez looked way off the pace in the 2013 Dauphine, finishing 16th, and went on to a Tour de France podium. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Nibali gets back to the top level before the race hits the mountains. Victory in the Italian road race championship was a good sign. This event is the focus of his season, and I expect him to be in his best shape of the year when the Tour gets into the mountains, and if he can reach his 2013 form, he could find himself battling Froome and Contador at the very top. He’ll also have one of the race’s finest teams backing him, with constant lieutenant and Top 10 finisher (and legitimate threat for a repeat Top 10) Jakob Fuglsang, veteran Michele Scarponi, and versatile Tanel Kangert at his side.

Alejandro Valverde, unlike Vincenzo Nibali, has been landing top results left and right all year. This is probably his last year as Movistar’s featured rider for the Tour, so motivation is high. Perhaps the one question mark in his stellar 2014 resume is the lack of recent results in top-level stage races. He eschewed the Dauphine and the Suisse in the run-up to the Tour, opting for the Route du Sud instead. He was strong there, but it’s hard to judge his form based on that race, given the lower level of competition. He was strong in Pais Vasco, but that was in April. It will be interesting to see how he goes in the Tour de France after well over two months away from WorldTour competition. With Ion Izagirre and the excellent Beñat Intxausti for support, he will have plenty of help, and his Spanish national championship-winning time trial form should come in handy as well. Given the sort of peak ability he has shown over the last few years, his strong team, and his knack for success in 2014, I expect him to be one of the last men standing as Froome and Contador ratchet up the pace on the steep climbs.

Garmin’s Andrew Talansky was already worthy of inclusion in the Top 10 conversation after landing 10th in last year’s Tour, but he solidified his presence in the discussion of outside contenders with his stellar Criterium du Dauphine. Though it may be tempting to write off his victory in that race to tactics alone, he would not have been in position to win the GC with his long-distance attack had he not put in strong performances throughout the race; he was sitting in 3rd place on GC before his daring move. Talansky has steadily improved as a climber over the past few years, and Garmin sends a great support squad to back his bid for the overall, with strong climber Janier Acevedo to help set the pace uphill and a number of other excellent teammates who thrive on the hilly days. Compatriot Tejay van Garderen will also be hunting a strong overall result, and he, too, is armed with ever-improving climbing skills. After a disappointing 2013 in which he seemed to take a step backward, he kicked off 2014 with renewed vigor. He was stellar in Catalunya, winning a mountain stage ahead of Contador, Purito, Froome, and others, and finishing 3rd overall on GC. However, a crash in the Tour de Romandie left him with a small hip fracture, which forced him to abandon that race and clearly slowed him in the Dauphine. Still, he certainly looked to be rounding into form as the Dauphine progressed and he has a dedicated BMC team backing him for a good GC result.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema got off to a slow start in 2014, but he was climbing very well in the Tour de Suisse, and appears to be finding form just in time for his season’s biggest target. Given Belkin’s sponsorship woes, motivation is high, and Mollema should have it in him to fight for a strong GC result. Teammate Laurens Ten Dam is a valuable second.

Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck spent all of 2013 and much of this season hunting the form that put him into 4th place in the Tour de France in 2010 and 2012, and until June’s Criterium de Dauphine, he did not have much to show for his efforts. But his 3rd place in the Dauphine, earned with some top-notch climbing performances, put him right back into the Top 10 discussion, given the ability he has shown in the past. He won’t have much team support, but the parcours is in his favor, with only a single time trial stage. Like so many other outside contenders, he may find the podium a very difficult goal, but a Top 10 is within his reach.

A Top 10 may be well within the reach of World Champion Rui Costa as well, though it’s hard to know what to expect out of the talented Portuguese all-rounder given that this is his first time as a GC team leader in the Tour de France. Signs point to stellar form right now after his brilliant Tour de Suisse victory (and a host of other strong results this season that may have been overlooked in all the attention given to his lack of actual victories in the rainbow jersey). Of particular interest was his terrific time trial performance in the Suisse, where he was third to specialists Tony Martin and Tom Dumoulin in that race’s 24.7 km time trial seventh stage. Whether he has the consistency required to land a top GC result in a three-week race is unclear, but he certainly has all the tools to make him a good candidate. 2013 Vuelta winner Chris Horner makes for a stellar second, though his form is an unknown right now.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has not been having an excellent season results-wise, but he has not been bad either, with Top 10s in Pais Vasco, Romandie, and the Bayern Rundfahrt. He was a bit under the weather in the Tour de Suisse and never really mounted much of a challenge in that race, but he did put in a strong time trial on a parcours that did not seem to suit him. It was actually one of a number of strong chrono performances from the climbing star this year, and if he has indeed found an extra gear against the clock (and if he can get back to his peak form by the time the Tour hits the mountains), he’ll be a dangerous outsider.

AG2R’s Romain Bardet has continued to deliver impressive results in his young career, with several Top 10s in big races already in 2014. He’ll appreciate the hilly parcours. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud has had a very strong season so far and will be looking forward to the race after crashing out of last year’s edition while looking well-positioned for a strong result. 2013 Alpe d’Huez stage winner Christophe Riblon makes for yet another strong all-rounder for AG2R. Fellow French stars Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland of Europcar at least deserve a mention, but they may be chasing stage wins, with Voeckler generally unimpressive this year and Rolland coming off the Giro d’Italia (he was terrific in that race, but hunting for a strong result in the Tour de France GC after the Giro is probably too much to ask). Speaking of Giro participation and stage hunting, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez is on the startlist, but he has said that he is purely here for stage wins and as preparation for the Vuelta, as he is still recovering from his Giro crash. Earlier in the season there was talk of teammate Simon Spilak having support as a GC rider but Katusha seems to be more focused on stage wins now; Spilak won a stage in the Dauphine but he was a non-factor in the GC. He’s very talented but he has yet to make much of a run at Grand Tour GC success; Yuri Trofimov may be Katusha’s designated GC rider instead. Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step was one of the spring’s biggest stars, but he took a break from racing following the Tour de Romandie and since then he has not apperaed to be at the same level that he was at in March and April. However, the Polish rising star is a tough competitor and this is a big target of his season, so it would not be a surprise to see him back to top form by the time the GC race heats up. He’ll hope to improve on his 11th place in last year’s race. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank has delivered quite a few excellent performances in his first year with his new team and he is sporting an improved time trial this season. He’ll look for continued success here. Leopold Konig leads the GC charge for fellow wildcard invite NetApp-Endura. He was excellent in the 2013 Vuelta a España, landing in the Top 10 and winning a stage, but injury has hampered his 2014 campaign. He appeared to be rounding into form at the Dauphine, however, and his team has selected a Tour squad dedicated to his GC hopes (leaving VH Up-and-comer Q&A Series interviewee Sam Bennett off the startlist). A Top 10 is within Konig’s reach. Also on the fringes of GC contention are Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae and Trek’s Haimar Zubeldia and Frank Schleck (Andy appears to be riding in support of them).

The Stagehunters

As usual, the caliber of stagehunters in the Tour de France is very high, especially among the sprinters. With at least seven days very likely to end in bunch sprints, the sport’s elite sprinting trio of Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and Andre Greipel are in attendance. All of them have had success this year, but they have not faced each other on many occasions, meaning that the battle for sprint supremacy is very much up in the air.

With his four victories in 2013, Marcel Kittel established himself as the fastest sprinter in that year’s Tour, and his dominance in the first two stages of this year’s Giro d’Italia (before he pulled out of the race with illness) suggest that he has not slacked off in 2014. His top-speed is otherworldly and he also has a nearly unbeatable leadout train. I think he is the best of the three right now.

OPQS’s Mark Cavendish has won some nice victories this year all over the map, and was head and shoulders above his competition in the recent Tour de Suisse on Stage 4, the one chance he had to sprint for victory (a crash derailed his bid for glory on Stage 5). His leadout, despite the additions of Mark Renshaw and Alessandro Petacchi, has not been as strong as he would have hoped, but there is plenty of talent there and they could put it together for the Tour. What’s more, last year’s “disappointment” (two stage wins is a disappointment when you are Mark Cavendish) came after he had raced a difficult Giro d’Italia, and this year, he skipped that Grand Tour in favor of shorter races. Perhaps with fewer race miles, he’ll be better prepared to take on his rivals.

Andre Greipel has had quite a year, racking up victory after victory since January’s Tour Down Under. Having just won another German Nationals title, as well as stages in each of the last four races he has undertaken, Greipel is obviously on great form. Lotto’s leadout team is a good one. Still, Greipel is probably the third of the trio right now. As much success as he has had this year, he has mostly been facing lower-level competition recently and I’m not sure how well his dominance against that competition will carry into the biggest race of the year. However, he is still a member of that elite trio, well above the rest of the sprinting pack, and picking up a few victories is a reasonable goal for the German.

Even with the dominance of this select trio of sprinters, however, the battle for the green jersey is still likely to come down to Peter Sagan, who can hunt for victories in the Tour’s many hilly stages and reliably expect Top 10s in the flat ones. As he consistently racks up very high placings, the triumvirate of top sprinters will be fighting amongst themselves for victories on the very flat stages, and not even contesting some of the hillier days that Peter Sagan is targeting. The convincing winner of the Tour de Suisse points competition, Sagan is firing on all cylinders right now and it’s hard to see past him in any stage likely to end in a reduced bunch sprint. Cannondale teammate Elia Viviani appears to be here in a support capacity.

Michael Matthews figures to offer some competition to Sagan on the tougher days; he showed stunning climbing legs in the Giro d’Italia and, having abandoned that race before it got too mountainous, he should have enough energy in the tank to challenge Sagan on the hilly stages. Marcel Kittel’s teammate John Degenkolb isn’t as good a climber as Matthews or Sagan but he could be there on some of the tougher days, too. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare is ready to prove that he, not Nacer Bouhanni, is the best sprinter on his team, and he’ll have an eye on the sprints that follow more difficult stages as well. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is especially adept at sprints that follow grueling days in the saddle: the cobbled fifth stage could be a good opportunity to shine against some of these other names. This Tour de France will also be a rare opportunity for him to sprint with the support of a dedicated team, meaning that he may also surprise even on the less demanding stages.

Lampre’s Sacha Modolo has been knocking at the door of his first WorldTour victory for a while and he finally got it in the Tour de Suisse; he’s on excellent form right now and is a nice outside candidate in the sprints. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has been extremely successful hunting victories in lower level French races this year; with a little luck he could be in the mix. Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Morkov and Daniele Bennati, and Cofidis’s Adrien Petit and versatile Julien Simon are other outside contenders for the sprints who will hope to play spoiler to the heavier favorites.

Punchy types who will look to get into the mix on the hillier stages include 2013 stage winner and 2014 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge and his on-form teammate Michael Albasini, Garmin’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belsol’s Tony Gallopin, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, and Europcar’s Cyril Gautier. As mentioned before, Joaquim Rodriguez considers himself purely a stagehunter in this race, making him a very likely aggressor in the later mountain stages of the Tour. We won’t know which big-time climbers abandon failed GC bids to hunt stage wins until the leaderboard starts to take shape in the middle of the race, but Purito is sure to be among the most prominent of the riders looking for mountaintop victories from the breakaway in the Tour’s final week.

Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, and, of course, Trek’s Jens Voigt and Fabian Cancellara are just a few of the names that stand out as likely long distance protagonists; for many of them, the cobbles of Stage 5 are a major target. Cancellara is also likely to be one of the main contenders in the Tour’s lone time trial, where he will face off against the GC heavyweights and other chrono specialists like World Champ Tony Martin and Giant-Shimano up-and-comer Tom Dumoulin.

VeloHuman Favorites

General Classification

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali
Other Top Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, Bauke Mollema, Jurgen van den Broeck, Rui Costa, Thibaut Pinot

Points Classification

Winner: Peter Sagan

I will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Tour de France here at VeloHuman.com, so make sure to bookmark the page! VH will bring you stage profiles, favorites, and outsiders for every day of racing. You can check out the Stage 1 Preview here. There will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. If you’re the type who can’t get enough cycling talk, you’ll be glad you followed! Hope to see you soon.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Damien, jvanattenhoven, Alain Stoll, and Harald.

July 2, 2014
Criterium du Dauphine 2014 and Tour de Suisse 2014 Post-race Impressions: Final Stage Fireworks as Stars Tune Up for July

Takeaways from the Criterium du Dauphine

The Dauphine was supposed to be a showdown between Tour favorites Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, but other riders decided to crash the party, offering a chance for a number of stars beyond those big names to show off impressive form. At first, it did not look like any outsiders would have a chance. Chris Froome was impeccable in Stages 1 and 2, delivering a convincing victory in the opening time trial, and nabbing another stage win on the following day. Contador was not far behind in the ITT and just moments behind Froome on the second stage. Things seemed set for a showdown between the two, especially with Nibali showing signs of weakness: Astana’s GC man could not match the constant accelerations of his two rivals on the slopes of Stage 2. The coming days had plenty of surprises in store, however. Froome’s hard crash on Stage 6 raised a cloud of uncertainty over his race, but it was only the beginning of the surprises; Andrew Talanksy shocked the cycling world when his early attack on the final stage survived the immense efforts of a group of strong chasers, giving the American the overall victory ahead of Contador. Jurgen van den Broeck was another winner out of the move, sliding into 3rd overall. Meanwhile, Chris Froome couldn’t handle the pace of the chase and fell out of the Top 10 altogether, forced to be content with his two stage victories and the points jersey.

Unfortunately, Froome’s crash makes it difficult to draw any clear conclusions about his form coming into the Tour de France. He looked unstoppable on the first two stages, but it’s hard to say whether his vulnerability in the final two days was a result of his inability to match rival Contador, or pain from his injuries. With the way he rode the first mountain test, I have to imagine that his crash had a significant impact on him in the closing stages. Regardless, what could have been a major confidence booster for Froome in what has been an otherwise rough year was instead yet another disappointment. He goes into the Tour with question marks surrounding his campaign, no longer the sterling, heavy favorite he was in 2013.

Meanwhile, Alberto Contador made a strong statement: he put in a stellar opening time trial and matched Froome in the first climbing stage, even before Froome’s crash. He was by far the strongest climber of the GC riders in the penultimate day of racing. Though he was unable to reel in Talansky’s move on Stage 8, the strength he showed in his attempt was another impressive show of the excellent shape he is in. Even more encouragingly, he was able to deliver such a strong Dauphine despite lacking support from the big names that will support his Tour bid; top lieutenants like Roman Kreuziger and Nicolas Roche did not join him for this race. With the help of Tinkoff-Saxo’s first string, Contador will be an extremely difficult opponent in the Tour de France.

Vincenzo Nibali‘s 7th place in the final GC was not a bad performance, per se, but at no point in the race did he look the part of a Tour de France top contender. Time is running out for Nibali to find form in 2014 before his main objective.

Andrew Talanksy made the most emphatic statement of the Dauphine, and it wasn’t only due to his masterful attack in the final stage. He never would have been in contention for the overall had he not delivered strong performances throughout the race: 4th in the opening ITT, 5th in the mountainous 2nd stage, and the GC rider closest to Contador on Stage 7, Talansky was firing on all cylinders all week long, and he looks primed for another strong Tour de France (he was 10th last year). Jurgen van den Broeck can take many of the same positives away from the race: his podium position was the result of a consistent racing from the very first day of the Dauphine. He has been lacking that consistently recently. After a disappointing 2013, van den Broeck made a resounding statement to his team that he deserves another shot at the Tour GC this year.

Wilco Keldmeran followed up his 7th in the Giro with an excellent 4th at the Dauphine: carrying that level of form this far into June confirms that the 23-year-old is truly the real deal. Romain Bardet‘s 5th should offer a fair bit of consolation for his team; AG2R will be without Carlos Betancur come July’s main event. Adam Yates landed an impressive 6th; his Tour of Turkey victory and his 5th in the Tour of California were nice results, but a Top 10 in this race, one of the biggest one-week events of the year, is an undeniable confirmation of his talent.

Tejay van Garderen looked like a strong contender for the overall, but after faltering early he revealed that he had sustained a hip fracture in the Tour de Romandie; with that in mind, his 13th overall is not as disappointing. He did seem to get stronger as the race went on. Speaking of injuries and Top 15s, Leopold Konig notched an 11th place, which should give NetApp some hope that his recovery from a knee injury is coming along.

Among the stagehunters, Giant-Shimano’s Nikias Arndt took an impressive sprint win on a technical finishing circuit in the 3rd stage. It seems the Giant sprint train can do no wrong, no matter who is doing the sprinting (more on that train in the next Up-and-comer Q&A, so be sure to check back Monday). Simon Spilak was seen by many, including VH, as a potential outside contender for the overall victory, but whether due to heat or team leadership decisions, he instead spent the race hunting stage wins, and he secured one with a brave breakaway move on a hilly Stage 5. Teammate Yuri Trofimov, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Sky’s Mikel Nieve were other deserving breakaway victors.

Takeaways from the Tour de Suisse

For the second week in a row, the last stage of a major WorldTour race ended with brilliant fireworks to shake up the overall GC; again, an early attack stuck to the very end, overhauling the final leaderboard. Much like the Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse offered lots of insight into the form of some likely Tour de France protagonists, and it did it with plenty of excitement, to boot.

With his first opportunity as a Grand Tour leader approaching, Rui Costa delivered his third GC victory in the Tour de Suisse in grand style, on the back of some solid time trialing (his 3rd place in the Stage 7 chrono bettered even Fabian Cancellara) and stellar climbing, and with the help of the sharp racing mind for which he is well-known. His escapees held off a mad chase in the race’s final stage and he out-attacked all of them in the closing kilometers to take his first stage win and first overall victory in the rainbow jersey. It’s hard to know how Costa will fare in his inaugural run as his team’s featured GC rider in the Tour de France, but his performance in Switzerland makes a powerful statement about his form and his skillset, which is looking more well-rounded with every race.

Tony Martin of OPQS saw his chances at an impressive GC win slip through in fingers in the mountainous final stage, but he should still be very pleased with his trip to Switzerland. His ability to land a Top 10 in a very hilly race was impressive, and he won both time trials convincingly. That ITT success may not come as a big surprise, but Martin was not the bookies’ favorite in the first chrono due to its short length. With this form, he should be the favorite for the long time trial in the penultimate stage of the Tour de France, and he’ll also have earned trust from his team as a GC rider in chrono-heavy weeklong races to come.

Mathias Frank was a strong 2nd overall and, like Costa, his nice result was buoyed by a very impressive (and much improved) time trial skillset. That discipline is not traditionally seen as one of his strengths. This more complete game will serve him nicely in the upcoming Tour. Bauke Mollema, 3rd overall, did not time trial as well as expected in the Suisse, but he did climb at a very high level, an encouraging sign ahead of the Tour, especially after a slow start to his year.

Giant’s Tom Dumoulin is an established chrono talent who has flashed climbing chops as well, and he made a nice statement in this race; he used his skill against the clock to get ahead early and held on in the mountains for 5th. At just 23, he’s one of quite a number of exciting young up-and-comers for the Dutch team… again, check back Monday for more on Giant-Shimano’s young talent! Davide Formolo of Cannnondale was decidedly the revelation of the race. The 21-year-old was 4th at the Tour of Turkey, but few could have expected him to finish this major event ahead of Roman Kreuziger. He put in a pair of decent time trials and consistently climbed with the top GC riders, good for 7th overall.

Speaking of Roman Kreuziger, his Suisse was an up-and-down affair, and in the end, he settled for 8th overall. He did not time trial particularly well, and though climbed to a 2nd place finish on Stage 8, he missed the move on Stage 9 and therefore lost a chunk of time to his other rivals. It’s a disappointment for last year’s podium finisher, but it’s nothing to scoff at, and he certainly looks strong enough to play the role of elite domestique again for Alberto Contador.

Thibaut Pinot‘s 15th overall was a disappointment, but he battled sickness in the race and was unable to give it 100%. He still managed to find himself in the Top 10 on the Stage 7 time trial, which is a strong result in that discipline for him. I don’t think he’ll be too discouraged by his race.

For many observers, Bradley Wiggins will be seen as the biggest disappointment of the Suisse. He did not crack the Top 10 in the opening ITT, lost time in the following stages, crashed, and then abandoned. Sky reported that he had a chest infection coming into the Suisse, and his crash left him with a knee injury. Whatever the reason, Wiggins was unable to have much of an impact on the event. While Wiggins has already said that he won’t be on Sky’s Tour de France squad, the team has yet to make any official statements; unfortunately his forgettable trip to Switzerland probably won’t help whatever chance he still has. Teammate Sergio Henao was another victim of misfortune, this one more grave: he was hit by a car doing recon for the Stage 7 ITT, and he is out for the foreseeable future with a broken knee.

Wilco Kelderman may have been able to land a top GC result right after the Giro d’Italia, but Cadel Evans was not up for it; he finished 11th overall in the Tour de Suisse and never seemed to be a strong challenger. Fellow former Tour winner Andy Schleck was not a GC factor but he at least finished the race. Unfortunately his brother Frank crashed hard in Stage 3 and was forced to abandon.

Peter Sagan easily took his third Tour de Suisse Points jersey. He only came away with one stage victory, but he was consistently stellar over the whole first week, finishing in the Top 6 for six days in a row, and then notching the 15th best ITT in Stage 7. He looks very sharp. Mark Cavendish of OPQS took a convincing victory in Stage 4 to put the pure sprinters on notice that he’s feeling strong as the Tour approaches. Unfortunately, he was unable to contest the following stage: he was one of several riders to hit the deck in a crash in the last few hundred meters. Sacha Modolo survived the carnage to take a victory that day, and I doubt anyone will say that it was purely a lucky break as his rivals crashed behind him: he looked extremely fast in the final moments of the stage, and he’s been close to a victory like this for a while.

Johan Esteban Chaves deserves a paragraph of his own. Orica-GreenEdge obviously has a collection of brilliant sprinters, puncheurs, and breakaway artists, but they have been looking for a top-flight climber to score victories when the road goes up. Suddenly, they are flush with climbing young talent. Adam Yates has the makings of a star, as he proved in the Dauphine, and 24-year-old Johan Esteban Chaves Rubio, who, like Yates, also flashed brilliance in the Tour of California, made another loud statement this week with a victory on the Verbier climb. To boot, he did it with a late uphill surge from the pack of GC heavyweights, besting uphill stars like Roman Kreuzgier and Bauke Mollema. The future looks bright for OGE and their young climbers.

La Grande Boucle Awaits

The Tour de France is now less than two weeks away. In the interim, national championship races will put new riders into national jerseys, and the Tour’s biggest protagonists will get in their final days of preparation before the main event. VeloHuman has plenty in store: check back soon for another entry in the Up-and-comer Q&A Series, and get ready for Tour de France previews!

-Dane Cash

Photos by Georges Menager and youkeys.

June 22, 2014
Tour de Suisse 2014 Preview

As the Criterium du Dauphine is heading towards its conclusion, the second major Tour de France tuneup race kicks off Saturday: the Tour de Suisse. Much like its French cousin, the Suisse features a diverse array of challenges, with time trials, sprinters’ days, hilly stages, and mountaintop finishes. The good mix of profiles draws an impressive startlist of riders, many of whom are using the nine-day event to perfect their form leading into July’s main event.

While the biggest GC names of the Tour de France have preferred to use the Dauphine as their warmup of choice in recent years, the Suisse has drawn some major protagonists as well. Current rainbow jersey wearer Rui Costa is the defending champion; he followed up on his 2013 Suisse with a pair of stage wins in the Tour. Meanwhile, Peter Sagan has won the Points Classification of the Tour de Suisse prior to both of his Green Jerseys in the Tour de France. Costa and Sagan are on a long list of returning riders likely to feature again. As a note: most of the big names on the provisional startlist look set to go, but the official startlist is not completely finalized at this point, so keep an eye out for late additions and subtractions.

The Route

The 78th Tour de Suisse begins with a 9.4 kilometer time trial. While short, it involves a tough climb and a tricky descent, so it’s not going to be as simple or as speedy as last year’s mostly flat out-and-back prologue. Stage 2 has some tough climbs (two HC-rated mountains and then a Cat. 2) in the middle of the day, followed by a late Category 2, but a downhill and then flat final 21 kilometers could limit GC action. The third stage has some bumps along the way and an uncategorized uphill finish. Stage 4 and Stage 5 are mostly flat days likely for the sprinters.

Stage 9: Martigny › Saas-Fee (156.5 km) – A challenging climb closes out the final stage of the Tour de Suisse, ensuring that the GC battle will go all the way down to the wire.

Stage 6 has a late climb that could inspire punchy riders to make moves. A 24.7 kilometer time trial on Stage 7 will have major GC implications. It does have a few bumps to offer some consolation to the pure climbers, but it’s a far cry from the hill climb chrono that finished the 2013 TdS. The uphill specialists will look forward to the following two days. A Hors Categorie ascent to Verbier closes out Stage 8. Stage 9 will guarantee an open fight for GC to the final meters of the Tour de Suisse: it’s a short one at 156.5 km, but the profile will challenge the peloton with a Cat. 1, a Cat. 2, another Cat. 1, and then an HC-rated summit finish where the Tour de Suisse will crown its overall victor.

The General Classification Contenders

Lampre’s Rui Costa has won the past two editions of the Tour de Suisse. This is a race that he knows how to win, and a stage on which he loves to shine. His very versatile array of skills (climbing legs, a fair bit of punch, and an underrated time trial) are well-suited to varied profiles of the weeklong event. He showed excellent form this year in Switzerland’s other major stage race, the Tour de Romandie, where he was 3rd behind Chris Froome and Simon Spilak. Riding as his team’s main option in the upcoming Tour de France for the first time, Costa will be eager to put his talents on display. He will also be eager to pick up his first win in the rainbow jersey, and this may be his best chance all year.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was runner-up and a stage winner in 2013 and he will be hunting continued success this year. He, too, sports a very strong combination of talents that will keep him comfortable in both the hills and the high mountains of the race. Belkin sends an excellent squad to support his amibitions, with climbing expert Laurens Ten Dam to play the role of second. Mollema has all the tools to contend for the overall victory in the 2014 Tour de Suisse.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger rounded out the 2013 podium (and he actually won this race back in 2008) and he will again have a shot at a good result this year. Kreuziger is Alberto Contador’s top lieutenant in the Tour de France, but at the TdS he has the chance to ride for his own ambitions, and he will be an excellent bet to achieve his goals, given his well-rounded skillset. Kreuziger had a hot start to the year but has not raced in over a month; however, with Tinkoff-Saxo’s main target approaching, he should be getting back up to top form now.

Sky’s Bradley Wiggins will certainly bring excitement to the race, especially coming off a Tour of California victory, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him. He worked himself down to a GC-oriented weight for his AToC bid, but now that he does not plan on riding in La Grand Boucle, he may refocus his approach to prep himself for time trialing and track goals to come. Obviously, with the motivation and focus, Wiggins is a major contender, but there are enough question marks that I don’t see him as the top favorite he is capable of being. Teammate Dario Cataldo couldn’t quite come away with a victory in the Giro d’Italia but he looked great throughout that race and could feature as a fringe contender with two time trials on the route. It is worth noting that Sky is also sending Sergio Henao to the Tour de Suisse, his first race since an extended break from competition.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot should be able to land himself another good result (he was 4th last year). He has shown an improved time trial this year, outperforming expectations in Pais Vasco and Romandie, and the ability to limit his losses in a discipline that troubled him in the past will be critical with this route. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank (5th in 2013) is another rider I expect to see at the very top. He, too, has displayed a more balanced approach in 2014, and he has a knack for success in races that take place in his home nation. He led the 2013 Tour de Suisse into the final day, but ultimately fell several placings with a lackluster performance on the last stage, a hill climb ITT. With that on his mind, and now the sole leader on a new team, Frank is likely to be a major protagonist.

BMC’s Cadel Evans and AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo are both only a few days removed from the Giro d’Italia. Wilco Kelderman has shown in the Dauphine that it’s possible to carry that Grand Tour form even into the middle of June, but it won’t be easy. Evans was fading as the Giro drew to a close, so it will be a big ask for him to continue to perform at a high level here. Pozzovivo battled illness in the Giro’s final week, but he maintained his strong performance through the last days of the race, and he may have more in the tank. Christophe Riblon makes for another excellent option for AG2R. The climbing expert (and Alpe d’Huez winner) showed an improved time trial in last year’s Tour de Pologne, and he’ll be motivated to perform leading into the Tour de France. Carlos Betancur was supposed to ride this race, but recent news suggests that he is skipping the Suisse, and possibly even the Tour de France.

Movistar’s Ion Izagirre is a vastly underrated GC performer who has flashed strong chrono chops to complement his excellent climbing skills recently. Rarely given the opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, he will have a nice shot at success here. Eros Cappechi is one of a number of strong teammates. Garmin is another very strong all-round squad led by riders who often play lieutenant roles. Rohan Dennis was 2nd only to Bradley Wiggins in the Tour of California. His time trialing prowess is well-known, but he has worked to better himself on the slopes in 2014 and it has really paid off. Teammates Janier Acevedo is a pure climber who will look to light up the late mountain stages, and Tom Danielson may feature in a similar role.

Giant-Shimano’s trio of Warren Barguil, Lawson Craddock, and Tom Dumoulin pack a particularly strong punch. Barguil has the climbing saavy to survive the late climbs. Craddock and Dumoulin are both excellent all-rounders who will look to jump to an early advantage in the time trial. Tony Martin of OPQS will likely be well-placed after that opening chrono as well, and he has decent climbing legs to boot. It wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see him hunting a GC result. Trek’s Schleck brother duo will hope to pick up a decent result; Frank has had something of a resurgence this year. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort, strong in the time trial, could put up a nice performance. MTN-Qhubeka’s Louis Meintjes is a fast-rising, versatile rider who is just coming into his own. His team may surprise some—they have a lot of talent for a variety of scenarios, and Meintjes can hang with the big guns when the road goes up (he was 5th at the Giro del Trentino in April). Orica-GreenEdge’s Johan Chaves is another outsider with a chance for success: he delivered a beautiful Tour of California stage win last month and he will look to make a late move up the GC leaderboard on the HC-rated climbs of the last two stages.

The Stagehunters

A number of elite stagehungers make the start from Bellinzona. Peter Sagan was brilliant in the 2013 edition, shocking everyone by nabbing a victory after surviving a particularly mountainous Stage 3 that even dropped most of the GC contenders, and he will try to defend his Points title in 2014. It won’t be easy. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, supported by excellent-sprinter-in-his-own-right Luka Mezgec, is on fire in 2014 and has shown an ability to handle some of the tougher peloton-whittling climbs that Sagan also prefers.

Unfortunately for both of them, they’ll have to contend with Mark Cavendish and his elite OPQS leadout squad on the flatter days. Tom Boonen is here for Omega Pharma as well: they mean business in this race. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is another sprinter hoping to make an impression, and for once, he’ll actually have an entire team dedicated to his ambitions in a stage race. He took a stage last year and will be hungry for more. Sky’s Ben Swift gets another chance to shine this season, and he look for the harder days as opportunities to win from a reduced bunch. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo got off to a hot start in 2014 and could find himself returning to success here. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard is a brilliant young talent who could feature. MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and JJ Lobato, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, OGE’s Matt Goss, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s in-form Matti Breschel and Michael Morkov are other likely sprint protagonists.

For the very hilly days, look out for Garmin’s Tom Jelte-Slagter, Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert, and OGE’s Michael Albasini, who lit up the Tour de Romandie, to try to take on the GC riders for stage supremacy. Don’t be surprised to see classics powerhouses like Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra and Stijn Vandenbergh, and Trek’s Stijn Devolder and, of course, Fabian Cancellara looking for long distance victories either. Cancellara will also headline (along with Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin) an elite field of chrono riders for the race’s two stages against the clock. Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and AG2R’s Patrick Gretsch are specialists who will hope to contend with that trio, as well as a number of other aforementioned strong ITT riders, for prestigious wins against elite competition.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Rui Costa
Podium: Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger
Other Top Contenders: Thibaut Pinot, Mathias Frank, Ion Izagirre, Bradley Wiggins, Rohan Dennis, Domenico Pozzovivo, Laurens Ten Dam

I will not be doing daily stage previews here, but follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for stage picks and commentary. And check back soon for some very exciting things to come: Q&As with some of the sport’s up-and-coming young stars and plenty of Tour de France coverage are right around the corner.

-Dane Cash

Photos by F. Gopp and youkeys.

June 12, 2014
Paris-Roubaix 2014 Post-race Impressions: Terpstra Takes the Final Prize of the Cobbled Classics

Niki Terpstra‘s beautiful solo move to bring the Netherlands its first Monument in a decade was a thrilling end to a thrilling cobbled classics season. Familiar faces were present throughout the season, ensuring that every race was a showdown between the most talented cobbled riders in the sport, but new blood had its day as well: each of the four biggest races went to a different victor, two of whom (John Degenkolb at Gent-Wevelgem and Terpstra at Paris-Roubaix) had never won a one-day classic on this level before. This P-R post-race will be somewhat different from what I usually produce for recaps: for most of the big riders in the race, Paris-Roubaix was the finale of a season, and now it’s time for a break, providing less cause to analyze this race in terms of what it means for the near future. Next week’s Ardennes Classics will draw a very different crowd. In other words, I’m looking at Paris-Roubaix and looking back on the cobbled classics to draw some final conclusions from those races.

29-year-old Terpstra has been among the top classics riders in recent years, landing several high placings in the big races, but he has always functioned as more of a top lieutenant on super-team OPQS than as a player himself. He is a great teammate and a workhorse rider. However, when given more chances to make his own moves in the past few seasons, he has delivered, and steadily improved his results. He got an opportunity this week and now owns a Paris-Roubaix title, the grandest accomplishment of them all. Perhaps he was a surprise winner to some, but Terpstra stood on the podium of this race last year and has been hot all year, winning Dwars door Vlaanderen, coming in 2nd at E3, and landing a top 10 in Flanders. In my preview, I noted: “Terpstra is a keen opportunist and an excellent soloist, and as one of a number of options on his team, he could benefit if the pack hesitates to follow.” I’d say he made good on that promise with his brilliant solo move ahead of a star-studded group in Sunday’s final kilometers. He’s only a few weeks shy of 30, but he appears to still be improving as a rider.

His team as a whole played their cards perfectly, finally delivering a victory. They’ve had the best squad (by a fair margin) in every race they’ve started this cobbled classics season, but at E3, Gent-Wevelgem, and De Ronde, they were only able land several riders in the Top 10s, never actually taking that final step to victory. When Tom Boonen jumped ahead very early on Sunday and stayed out front for tens of kilometers, it looked like a suicide move that was certain to leave him with nothing for the finish. OPQS, it turned out, was playing a clever game. With such firepower up front, the other big names were forced to exhaust themselves chasing, and no one could make a successful move past the breakers. When Boonen’s group was eventually reeled in and then the final select group started to form, Boonen himself may have been running low, but teammates Niki Terpstra and Zdenek Stybar had full tanks of high octane fuel. The former jumped, the group hesitated, and then it was too late for any of the tired riders to bring him back. Stybar and Boonen finished 5th and 10th, respectively; this time, OPQS can truly celebrate the triple top 10 performance, because one of those top 10ers actually won the race. With Stybar and Terpstra both hitting their stride and riders like Guillaume Van Keirsbulck in the wings, OPQS is in good hands for the near future even as Tom Boonen’s career enters its twilight years.

Fabian Cancellara found himself on yet another Monument podium. He’ll be disappointed he did not win the race, but OPQS played Sunday’s affair just right and Cancellara’s team (lessened by the absence of Stijn Devolder) was not up for the challenge. At the start of the day, I would have said that 3rd overall was a less-than-stellar finish for the big favorite, but in the way the race played out, I felt that a podium finish (which required him to outsprint Zdenek Stybar, Sep Vanmarcke, and Peter Sagan in the velodrome) was actually quite a result given the makeup of the group in the final kilometers. Spartacus has now been on the podium of all three Monuments run so far this year, and he’s been on the podium of every one of the last 12 he’s raced. At 33, he is still showing an unbelievable ability to deliver big results in the biggest races, and he seems to have improved his sprint even as his soloing ability has maybe started to see a slight decline. Fellow pre-race favorite Sep Vanmarcke found himself in a very similar boat; there was very little he could do to get ahead of the pack with Boonen out front all day, and he was a tired, marked man in the finale. He was unable to get the victory he wanted this year, but he was among the best riders in every race he started, showing the kind of consistency that almost guarantees that he will one day be standing on the top of a major podium.

John Degenkolb won Gent-Wevelgem’s sprint finish, but that race is much friendlier to sprinters than the brutal 260 kilometers of Paris-Roubaix. By making it to the Roubaix velodrome with the star-studded group of chasers just behind victorious Terpstra, he showed an amazing level of endurance that suggests he is capable of hanging on to win even the longest and most grueling of races. After such a long day, he still had enough energy to win the sprint for 2nd on one of the biggest stages in the sport. At only 25, Degenkolb is primed to take on Milano-Sanremo winner and fellow 2014 breakout star Alexander Kristoff in classics sprint finishes for years to come. Kristoff, by the way, had some horrible luck on Sunday, leaving the race in an ambulance after punctures and crashes ended his bid for victory. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was another hardman-sprinter-with-a-bright-future who hit misfortunate after misfortune in the race. He punctured several times, but still made it in amongst the top 15, coming across the line in 12th place. After a great showing in Gent-Wevelgem, where he just missed out on victory behind John Degenkolb, the 22-year old looks poised for success in the spring’s biggest events in the coming years.

Peter Sagan‘s race was a mixed bag. Many did not expect him to make it to the final kilometers with the likes of Cancellara; he did, after riding an aggressive race that saw him bridge the gap to Boonen’s lead group and then hang on with the favorites before Terpstra’s decisive jump. Still, he seemed exhausted as the pack neared the velodrome. He was unable to put up much of a fight in the race for 2nd, rolling across the line 6th. It will be disappointing for him to have come close again, but I think it’s a positive sign: he’s been 2nd in Milano-Sanremo and the Ronde, but he had yet to make an impression on Paris-Roubaix, and he made a statement that this is a race he can contest as well when he hung with the big names on Sunday. Another spring without a Monument for Sagan, but he did add another classics win to his palmares at E3 Harelbeke and further experience in the long, brutal events for which he is so often named the favorite of the future.

Sky landed a pair of riders among the top 10 finishers in Geraint Thomas and former Tour winner Bradley Wiggins. Many did not give Wiggins a chance in the slightest in this race; his performance, hanging with the biggest names in one-day racing, impressed me a great deal. There is still a lot left in his tank and I’m excited to see him in more races this year. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas landed yet another good result, his third classics top 10 after a podium place in E3 and an 8th place in Flanders. Thomas made the most spirited attempt to chase Terpstra in the finale, but he did not get much help and was forced to resign himself to finishing with the group. Still, he has displayed an incredible array of talents this season; he has talked about the difficult choice between focusing on stage races vs. one-day events, and I think he could have a bright future in either one. Teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen crashed at an inopportune time in this race but didn’t seem strong on the day anyway—he was a good teammate this classics season, but for someone with such immense talent, his rather anonymous showings have been pretty disappointing. With a well-rounded combination of sprinting, climbing, and time trialing ability rivaled by few others in the sport, I wonder if he might be better off shifting his focus a bit later into the season, hunting points jerseys and circuit races like the Grand Prixes de Quebec and Montreal; Gent-Wevelgem remains really the only big classic race in which he has found success in his career.

As a last note, Team BMC had a rash of misfortune late in the race. After Thor Hushovd put an admirable turn in at the front of affairs, things eventually started coming back together, and BMC began gathering its strength for Greg Van Avermaet and Taylor Phinney. Unfortunately, Van Avermaet crashed in a nasty corner and Phinney flatted on Le Carrefour. Bad luck is pretty much the name of the game in Paris-Roubaix, but it is a shame that we did not get a chance to see either rider in the finale, as late attacks are their forte.

As the door closes on the cobbled classics, it opens on my favorite week of the season, with the Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege running one after another in the span of just one week. VeloHuman will be previewing all of them, with plenty of analysis on Twitter as well. Follow @VeloHuman for more, and check back here soon for the Amstel Gold Preview!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Luca Pedroni.

April 14, 2014
Paris-Roubaix 2014 Preview

The incomparable Paris-Roubaix runs for the 111th time this Sunday. The legendary race is a celebration of days long past, a relic that offers dangers and challenges unseen elsewhere in most of today’s other major contests. The trip is mostly a flat affair, but the rough cobbles, patches of mud, whirling dust clouds, fanatical spectators, and excessive length provide difficulties that no profile could display. Constant attacks at every juncture force splits and selections and require acute awareness at all times. A moment of lost concentration can also mean going down hard on the unforgiving surface. Experience navigating the difficulties and an extremely high tolerance for the bone-rattling pain of irregular roads are crucial at Paris-Roubaix.

51.1 total kilometers of cobbles lie along the 256 kilometer road from Compiegne to Roubaix. Some of those sections are in better shape in others, and each is given a rating (between one and five). The more difficult sections are often the site of attacks, with the race’s three five-star cobbled sections quite likely to force selection. First among them, the wooded Arenberg Trench greets the peloton (or what remains by that point) after 161 kilometers. The 2.4 kilometer stretch is extremely rough, and after what might constitute a whole day’s racing in a stage race, the abuse of riding over uneven stones takes its toll. The Mons-en-Pévèle is the next five-star section, 3 kilometers long with some sharp turns and generally a lot of mud, beginning around kilometer 208. Tom Boonen’s awesome long-distance strike in 2012 was launched just before this section was reached; even if it doesn’t launch the winning attack this year, it will still be sure to jettison a few riders from the pack. A few more easily rated sections follow the muddy stretch before the five-star Le Carrefour de l’Arbre is reached, the legendary 2.1 kilometers of uneven pave that must be overcome only 17 km before the finish line. It’s hard to drop anyone after this point, so if the race isn’t split up by the time the riders reach the Carrefour, expect fireworks from the riders hoping to avoid a sprint in the iconic Roubaix velodrome.

Contenders for the Cobblestone Trophy

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara comes into Sunday’s race looking to pick up his fourth cobblestone trophy (which is literally a cobblestone), and he enters the race as a big favorite thanks to both his resume in the classics generally and recent displays of current form. The four-time ITT world champion has one of the biggest engine’s in the sport, making it nearly impossible to drop him. Holding his wheel is an immense struggle on this terrain. But any riders capable of hanging on then must beat him in a sprint, which he has shown quite an aptitude in recently. He won last year’s edition by outsprinting Sep Vanmarcke after the two of them bridged a gap to Zdenek Stybar and Stijn Vandenbergh up the road, watched both of those riders run into spectators, and then continued on by themselves. This year, the sprinting ability that won him last year’s P-R carried him to 2nd place in Milano-Sanremo in March, and it put him atop the podium of his third Tour of Flanders last week when he made it into the winning attack and won a sprint to the line. Defeating Fabian Cancellara will be a very tall order for the other contenders in this race: he has the perfect combination of current form, ability, and experience to win this race. Stijn Devolder is still uncertain for this race after a crash filled Flanders, but if he’s here, he’s a great second.

Tom Boonen has won Paris-Roubaix even more times than Cancellara; his 2012 victory after more than 50 kilometers riding solo is the stuff of legend. Various maladies kept him from contesting in 2013, but numerous results this year have shown that he has recaptured some form. Still, he has not quite returned to the level of two years past, and injury and personal misfortunes have made 2014 a difficult year; he was unable to hang with Cancellara in the Ronde. Paris-Roubaix is a different race, without the climbs of Flanders, and it may suit Boonen a bit more against the seemingly unstoppable Cancellara. What’s more, while his ability to put up sustained power numbers might be somewhat reduced, he still looks quite handy in a sprint, and he learned years ago that the best tactic against Cancellara is to remain glued on that wheel and hope for a sprint. He will also have plenty of help from star-studded Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Niki Terpstra has been a very active and very successful rider this spring, following up a 2nd place at E3 Harelbeke with a 6th place at the Tour of Flanders. He was 3rd in last year’s Paris-Roubaix, the next rider to cross the line after the Cancellara/Vanmarcke duo. Terpstra is a keen opportunist and an excellent soloist, and as one of a number of options on his team, he could benefit if the pack hesitates to follow. Zdenek Stybar was strong enough to still manage an 8th place despite running into a spectator last year. He hasn’t made as big an impression on this classics season as I initially expected, but he does have plenty of form and the bike handling skills of a cyclocross world champion. He also has a quick finish. 29 year-old teammate Stijn Vandernbergh was the other major spectator casualty of 2013, but he enters this year’s edition again on stellar form, having come in 4th in both the Ronde and E3 Harelbeke. He does not have the fastest sprint but he’s very aggressive and at the very least, he’s almost certain to try something on the tough cobbled sections.

The top challenger taking on favorite Cancellara and super-team OPQS is last year’s runner-up Sep Vanmarcke. Just 25, the Belkin rider has already been on the podiums of Gent-Wevelgem, the Tour of Flanders, and obviously Paris-Roubaix, each time showing good cycling acumen for planning the successful attacks and the engine to make them. Unfortunately, on all three of those occassions, his fellow attackers outsprinted him to the finish line. In 2014, he has been in the top 5 of all three WorldTour cobbled races, as well as other big spring contests Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. His biggest challenge will be creating a real gap between other contenders, as a sprint finish simply will not do for him. I think he is one of the very few riders with a chance at getting ahead of Cancellara, and he will certainly give that venture a shot on Sunday. It’s a big ask, but one thing is for sure: he is an excellent bet to be on at least one of the three steps on the podium. Lars Boom is a very high quality support rider.

Paris-Roubaix is a truly unique bike race, unlike any other in the grueling tests through which it parts participants. It is also unlike most of the other bike races that Peter Sagan, versatile as he is, has won in his life. Sagan did not ride this race last year. His 2011 attempt landed him 86th. The long, brutal days have challenged Sagan in his young career, and the flat parcours gives him fewer opportunities to gap the bigger riders. Still, counting out Peter Sagan is always a mistake. He already has a pair of fine wins on the WorldTour level, in Tirreno-Adriatico and at E3 Harelbeke, thanks to his good form in 2014. Winning a Monument is his central goal right now, and I think he will give this race 100%. He obviously has the sprint to beat most challengers if he makes it to the finish, and he’s an expert bike handler for the difficult cobbled stretches. Whether he can survive the carnage of attacks is the real question. I don’t think he will match Cancellara in Paris-Roubaix, but I don’t think it’s an impossible ask either.

Milano-Sanremo winner Alexander Kristoff added to his remarkable track record in recent Monuments last weekend when he came in 5th in the Ronde, rolling across the line by himself after a failed but spirited attempt to bridge to Cancellara’s group. The Katusha rider has a special talent for sprinting after hard days in the saddle, and few are harder than Paris-Roubaix. Furthermore, P-R doesn’t have the climbers of Flanders, which will play into his hands, as he is not an expert climber. 9th in 2013, Kristoff looks even better this year and more likely to hang on during the attacks or even make his own attempts to bridge if necessary. Of the favorites, he has one of the fastest sprints. If he’s there at the finish, it’s hard to see him not winning the cobblestone trophy. As usual, Luca Paolini makes a great second. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb is the other big name sprinter who might be considered to at least have a shot at being there in the finish. He held on as long as he could in Flanders but was ultimately dropped on the final climbs on the race. It won’t be much easier in Paris-Roubaix, but the Gent-Wevelgem winner is on awesome form and on a good day and with some luck, making the final selection is not out of the question. If he can hold the right wheel to the end of the race, he’s one of the fastest finishers on the start list.

BMC sends a powerful duo to the race in Taylor Phinney and Flanders runner-up Greg Van Avermaet. Phinney attacked early in 2013 but was unable to hold an advantage. He was twice winner of the U-23 edition of the race. The track star turned time trial specialist has a giant engine and he is handy in a sprint finish. He excels on the long flat days. Last week in Flanders he did an excellent job staying up the road for quite a while to keep the pressure of Greg Van Avermaet; Paris-Roubaix is definitely his style, and BMC will look to set him up for a strike more aimed at overall success here. Said teammate Van Avermaet is an excellent option as well, having ridden to 4th here in 2013. He looks in great shape in 2014, placing highly in a number of races even if he hasn’t managed to come up with the victories he has sought. Fewer hills give him fewer opportunities to show off his quality climbing abilities, but this is a race that rewards aggressive riders, and Van Avermaet fits that bill. In years past, Thor Hushovd challenged for the win here a few times, coming as close as 2nd place in 2010; he’s a bit past those golden years now, but the tough former World Champ deserves a namecheck at least. BMC has the talent to challenge the big favorites in this race.

Team Sky also sends a good squad, with Edvald Boasson Hagen and Bradley Wiggins the featured riders for the contest. Boasson Hagen has been riding very well lately, mostly in support, and his time trialing skills and top-notch finishing kick could land him in a great position in Paris-Roubaix. Meanwhile, Bradley Wiggins decided that he would ride the cobbles of Paris-Roubaix this year, and though he does not really have a history of success in this race, he looked pretty good at last week’s Ronde van Vlaanderen. He’s not among the favorites, but he has shown an exceptional ability to succeed when he sets his mind to goals most would deem overly ambitious. Moreover, this is a race that can be won by an elite time trialist, and Bradley Wiggins is among the best in recent memory in that discipline. Geraint Thomas is supposedly riding this race in support of his teammates, but if for some reason he finds himself in position to make a move, he’s a very tough rider built for the days like these; his biggest knock is his propensity to crash, and Paris-Roubaix is nothing if not treacherous.

Back in 2009, Filippo Pozzato managed to finish 2nd to Tom Boonen in Paris-Roubaix. He was also the victor at E3 that year, and 5th in Flanders. Things haven’t really gone the way the Lampre rider would have hoped in recent years, and he is yet to have much success this year, but he did finish with Degenkolb, Sagan, and Stybar in the small group chasing the attackers up the road in Flanders last week. Teammate Sacha Modolo seems unlikely to be there after such a tough day, but he’s one of best sprinters in the race if that somehow happens.

Longer shots looking to animate the race include Wanty Groupe – Gobert’s Bjorn Leukemans (9th in De Ronde this year, and 4th at P-R in 2007), Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld (10th in De Ronde this year, and 7th at P-R in 2013) and Johan Vansummeren (involved in a serious crash with a spectator, he had a rough Flanders this year, but he did win Paris-Roubaix in 2011 and has a host of other top 10s to his name), and AG2R’s Sebastien Turgot (a surprise 2nd place here in 2012) and Damien Gaudin. Long shots to somehow hang with the proven hardmen and sprint it out include FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who looks very fast this season but who has not been able to survive the tough days to make it to the finish), Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, IAM’s Heinrich Haussler, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati.

No exhaustive preview can account for every possibility in a crazy race like Paris-Roubaix. A puncture or crash could instantly ruin the hopes of any of the big favorites and open the contest for new contenders. Still, through all the uncertainty, this race has been dominated by a select group of riders in the past several years; as difficult as it is to win Paris-Roubaix, and as large a role as chance can play over miles and miles of cobbles, seven of the last nine editions have seen either Tom Boonen or Fabian Cancellara victorious. Sunday will offer a great showdown between both of these heavyweights, and also between the now old guard they represent and the rising stars of Vanmarcke, Sagan, Kristoff and others.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Fabian Cancellara
Podium: Sep Vanmarcke, Tom Boonen
Other Top Contenders: Alexander Kristoff, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Taylor Phinney, Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet, Edvald Boasson Hagen

VeloHuman recently joined the Twitterverse! Follow @VeloHuman for more analysis and commentary during the race, and be sure to come back soon for post-race thoughts and previews of Amstel Gold, La Fleche Wallonne, and the fourth monument of the year, Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Olivier Moindroit and Christophe Duhem.

April 10, 2014
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2014 Post-race Impressions: Cancellara in a Class of His Own

Quickly Summing Up the Action at the 2014 Tour of Flanders

Pais Vasco kicked off today in Ordizia (check out the VeloHuman preview!), which means that De Ronde 2014 is now history. Sunday’s battle on the cobbles of East Flanders made for an incredibly exciting contest, with action enough for several races throughout the long day on the road. At times, it looked like anyone’s game, with constant crashes and daring attacks providing plenty of uncertainty to keep things interesting. Riders were dropping like flies with each climb. As the front of the pack approached the last few hillingen with two-time winner Fabian Cancellara among them, an air of inevitability started to creep in. The other contenders sensed it and did what they could, with Greg Van Avermaet and Stijn Vandenbergh going off the nose a bit over 30 km out. When Spartacus jumped from the chasers on the brutal Oude Kwaremont on his way to track them down, only Sep Vanmarcke could follow up the bone-rattling cobbles; fellow pre-race favorites Peter Sagan and Tom Boonen were unable to hang on.

From there, it was a matter of Cancellara and Vanmarcke catching the men in front, which they did, and the foursome hanging on ahead of the pack. Their bid was successful, leading to a four man sprint for the 94th Tour of Flanders. A game of cat and mouse ensued, with each rider jockeying for the best position and trying to plan the perfect time to turn on the ignition, but even with 3-to-1 odds, the Belgian trio could not match Cancellara in the final gallop. Spartacus delivered again Sunday to pick up his 3rd win in the Monument Classic, with Greg Van Avermaet 2nd and Sep Vanmarcke a disappointed 3rd.

Lessons Learned Along the Road to Oudenaarde

Fabian Cancellara‘s 3rd Ronde van Vlaanderen victory is his seventh Monument. That ties him with Tom Boonen, and it does not look like Spartacus is slowing yet. He has shined on the two biggest stages of the year, outclassing some of the best sprinters in the world on his way to a 2nd place in Milano-Sanremo and then using his sprint again even more effectively to take De Ronde. Though the Trek rider just turned 33 this March, both his finishing kick and his powerful engine seem to be as strong as ever. He has said that he may retire within the next few years, but given his current form, he’s likely to fill those years with more success, especially in the most beloved one-day races on the calendar, which also happen to be the most grueling—and therefore suit him perfectly. This Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix will be the perfect place for the strongest of strongmen to take yet another major victory. He enters as the big favorite after this dominant show.

Perhaps the second biggest story of the Ronde van Vlaanderen was Peter Sagan‘s inability to match Cancellara on the Oude Kwaremont. Despite showing strong form in several big races so far this season, Sagan had no answer for Spartacus on the brutal final hillingen. It would be hard and probably incorrect to pinpoint any one reason why his ability to nab races like Gent-Wevelgem and E3 Harelbeke has not translated into a Monument yet. A few factors come to mind. First, he does seem sapped of power when the odometer gets over 240 kilometers, as it does in these races. His Milano-Sanremo 2014 sprint was far less impressive than it usually is, and his uphill burst seemed drastically reduced when Cancellara turned on the afterburners in this weekend’s Tour of Flanders. Sagan’s team support, or lack thereof, may be another major factor—Sagan does not have Cancellara’s ability to carry on over tens of kilometers alone, and while it can’t be said that Cannondale does not surround the young Slovakian with talent, he is too often left without assistance at key moments in a race. Whatever has held him back, I don’t think it necessarily counts him out for this Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix, even if it seems to suit him less than other races. The truth of the matter is that any rider can have an off-day when he least wants to, and it’s always possible that Sagan just hasn’t gotten his best days to line up with the biggest races yet.

Sep Vanmarcke impressed me more than most other riders in the race with his ability to jump up the Oude Kwaremont behind Cancellara. It is a serious climb, meaning that even if he has yet to win a big race this season, Vanmarcke is on serious form. In my mind, Vanmarcke is right with four-time winner Tom Boonen as top challengers to Cancellara in Paris-Roubaix. Without the uphill mileage of the Ronde, the Hell of the North may be a better shot for Vanmarcke. He’s perfected the art of holding Cancellara’s wheel, and, learning from the best, one day soon he might just time his own attack perfectly.

What more can I say about Greg Van Avermaet that hasn’t already been said? It’s hard not to root for the 28-year old, a constant fixture in the spring classics. The BMC rider has shown in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and on Sunday in Flanders that he is in great shape in 2014, and with such a high probability of a good placing in almost every race he takes on, it seems likely that one of these days, he might win the final sprint to the line or solo away and stay out until the finish line. Better tactics (not wasting energy trying to drop Stijn Vandenbergh) will help as well.

Tom Boonen was unable to hang with the lead group on Sunday, but he did manage to end up a respectable 7th. His thumb seems to still be affecting him; I’d say he ran a decent race given his injury, and hopefully, he will continue to heal and challenge for Paris-Roubaix. OPQS as a whole will (and should) be very disappointed with the way things turned out. Their best placed rider Stijn Vandenbergh did not come close in the sprint. Niki Terpstra tried to pick up Boonen’s slack with an attempt to bridge to the final foursome, but was unsuccessful. Zdenek Stybar was among the big group of chasers but did not manage to make waves. They will look to bounce back in Paris-Roubaix. With last year’s 3rd place finisher (Terpstra) and 6th place finisher (Stybar, who might have been on the podium himself if not for a spectator crash) lining up alongside Tom Boonen (another week removed from his thumb injury) in a race he has dominated, they are set up nicely.

Milano-Sanremo winner Alexander Kristoff forced himself further into the Paris-Roubaix conversation with a 5th place in the Ronde van Vlaanderen. It would have been something if the Katusha hardman had won the bunch sprint behind the leading group as he did last year, but his 2014 performance, while landing him a 5th instead of 4th, was arguably more impressive, as it involved him jumping into an attempt to bridge with only one other rider (Niki Terpstra) and then going it alone for the closing minutes of the race. The fact that he was able to be up there when Sagan and John Degenkolb had fallen away speaks volumes about Kristoff’s talent. His abilities shine brightest on the toughest days. Paris-Roubaix is one such day, and Kristoff will look to improve on his 2013 result, 9th place, in this edition. Without climbs but with all the brutality of a cobbled Monument Classics, P-R could be a great stage for Kristoff.

Cancellara’s dominance, the rise of Kristoff and Vanmarcke, and the continued disappointment for Sagan may be the biggest takeaways from the 2014 Ronde, but in my mind they come with a major caveat. On the harsh cobbles of the spring classics, races can change in an instant (Cancellara knows this better than anyone thanks to his 2012 crash). Any rider can have a great day or a terrible day, and the conditions of the Monuments tend to push this fact to its extremes. In short, Fabian Cancellara was the most dominant rider on Sunday and he’ll enter Paris-Roubaix the favorite, but when the gears start turning and the adrenaline gets pumping, it only takes one perfectly-timed move by one in-form challenger to shake things up. As usual, VeloHuman will be previewing the excitement to come, and tweeting more thoughts @VeloHuman on Twitter (be sure to follow!).

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mark Blacknell. Video courtesy of CyclingHub.

April 8, 2014