Tag: Picks

Stage 9: Vielha Val d’Aran › Andorre Arcalis – 184.5km

The last day of racing before the first rest day, Stage 9 should be a real GC showdown, especially since Stage 7 and 8 lacked much in the way of major time gaps. The profile certainly provides ample opportunity. There is very little flat along the road to Arcalis, with several uncategorized uphill stretches to go along with the many downhill kilometers.

The first four categorized climbs should serve to soften up the legs considerably. Then comes the final climb, an hors categorie challenge of 10.1km at 7.2%. Particularly in its position as the day’s fifth hard climb, the Arcalis will undoubtedly draw out attacks.

The up-and-down nature of this profile will have the breakers excited about their chances, but with the GC still so open I wouldn’t be surprised to the teams of the yellow jersey hopefuls keeping any long-range move on a short leash. As such, Stage 9 could come down to a battle among all the big GC stars.

Chris Froome remains my favorite for the tough mountain stages. Although he gained some time in Stage 8, it wasn’t much, and I think Froome is still hoping to deliver that early coup de grace for which he has become known. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen here. His team looked great Saturday.

Nairo Quintana remains the other obvious choice in the mountains. Sure, he sort of got caught sleeping in Stage 8, but he appeared to be climbing well and that’s what will matter on these gradients. His Movistar teammate Alejandro Valverde can’t be counted out either.

On peak form Fabio Aru is a top pick here but he’s a bit of an unknown right now. Dan Martin, Romain Bardet, Rui Costa, and Joaquím Rodríguez have nice potential among the GC men as well, particularly if it comes down to a small group late.

Rafal Majka and Thibaut Pinot could try to get back into the mix too after spending time in the breakaway Saturday—both are talented enough to win from the pack or the break, making them extra dangerous. The long list of other potential breakers includes Alberto Contador, Steve Cummings, Rubén Plaza, and Ilnur Zakarin.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Richie Porte

Stage 5: Limoges › Le Lioran – 216km

Wednesday’s stage is one of the more unpredictable days in this Tour. The profile is hilly enough to put the sprinters out of contention, and it could spring an early breakaway or a late attack to success. The final 40km involve four categorized climbs and a uncategorized uphill finish that favors the puncheurs.

At first glance, a few days ago, I thought this would be breakaway day for sure, but the race situation may dictate otherwise. With Peter Sagan in the yellow jersey and GC teams that have looked interested in battling for every inch at the front of the bunch so far, I see it more as a 50/50 proposition.

Should the pack contest the finish, there are a few clear favorites. Sagan is one of them. The finish might actually favor punchier types better but Sagan has looked very impressive all season and it’s hard to put anything past him.

Julian Alaphilippe should like the look of the stage. The late climbs will thin out most of the faster finishers and the uphill finale will suit him very well. Etixx teammate Dan Martin has a shot too.

Alejandro Valverde is of course a potential stage winner with this finish, though it’s hard to say whether Movistar will want him pushing too hard to achieve his own goals.

The profile might be a tad too challenging for Michael Matthews, on the other hand, but he’s worth keeping an eye on. His teammate Simon Gerrans may like the parcours more.

Tony Gallopin is typically very strong on this sort of finish, especially with the succession of climbs at the end of the day. The same could be said for Greg Van Avermaet. Joaquím Rodríguez, Rui Costa, and Bauke Mollema are others with a decent shot in a reduced sprint.

Stephen Cummings and Thomas De Gendt stand out as strong breakaway candidates for Stage 5. This early in the race, it’s hard to say who is gunning for the long-range moves, but those two are among the clear possible breakers on just about any stage. Simon Geschke and Sylvain Chavanel are also options.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Julian Alaphilippe | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Stage 4: Saumur › Limoges – 237.5km

Tuesday’s stage is rather similar to Monday’s: long and mostly flat. It’s actually the longest stage of this year’s Tour, and yet the profile contains just one forgettable Cat. 4 climb. The most important topographical feature comes at the finish, where the road angles upward slightly for the final 500 meters.

The profile is pretty sprinter-friendly so it’s hard to see anyone other than the speedsters as top favorites, though the length could shake things up a bit. 237.5km puts this into the realm of a one-day classic, and that could leave some of the less versatile sprinters a bit worn out by the end of the day.

As such, I like André Greipel to win the stage. He came so close to the win in Stage 3, proving his strong form, and I think Stage 4 suits him a bit bitter, now that he’s shown some ability in the classics.

That said, Mark Cavendish has to be considered a strong contender to take his third win of the Tour. He’s obviously in top shape, and his teammates have proven themselves worthy supporters in the bunch kicks.

The third member of the top sprinting trio in this Tour, Marcel Kittel, found himself out of position in Stage 3 but that doesn’t mean he’s not in-form. Tuesday’s route might be a bit long for the German but not so long that I’m counting him out.

On the other hand, Peter Sagan‘s chances look great on this parcours. The slight uphill drag in the finale suits him quite well, as does the distance. I think he’s probably got a better shot than Kittel with all those factors in mind.

Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Greg Van Avermaet, and Edward Theuns are other speedy options who should really like the look of the profile—this is just the sort of route that gives them a chance to steal a sprint win from the Cavs and the Kittels.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Mark Cavendish