Episode 46: Tour de Suisse 2016 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride dives into the Tour de Suisse, the “other” Tour de France tune-up race.
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Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take a closer look at the parcours and the start list of the 2016 Tour de Suisse.
Photo by will_cyclist (CC).
Few one-week stage races consistently draw amazing startlists riding at a very high level of form quite like the Dauphiné. This year’s race is no exception. Most of the big Tour de France contenders will be in attendance to do battle in the Alps.
This year’s Critérium du Dauphiné is all about the climbers. The only time trial is the first stage of the race, and it’s a pure hill climb that will bring the lightweight mountain goats to the fore.
Then come four straight days for the stagehunters – stages ranging from sprinter-friendly to puncheur-oriented – before a mountainous three days close out the race. Stage 6 looks like the queen stage, with the fearsome hors categorie Col de la Madeleine halfway into the day and a Cat. 1 finale to close things out. The seventh and final stage is a tough one as well, with a late Cat. 1 into a Cat. 3 finish to provide a final test for the uphill specialists.
I see a quintet of riders as the top tier of GC favorites in this race. Chris Froome headlines the list. He’s won the Dauphiné in the past, and showing that he does like to do well in the race, and it goes without saying that when he’s at his best, he’s practically unstoppable in a stage race. It will also help to have a hugely impressive support squad. Any one of Mikel Landa, Michal Kwiatkowski, Sergio Henao, or Wout Poels could even contend for the win should Froome not be up for it.
Alberto Contador has been on the podium in the Dauphiné more than once and should challenge again this year. Motivation is the biggest question for the Spaniard – you get the feeling that it’s all about the Tour for Contador – but if he’s on his game he’ll be right there in the mix.
Fabio Aru will love the parcours. He’s not at the same level as Froome or Contador in the time trials, so this climber-centric route favors him. We haven’t had too many opportunities to see him up against a fully healthy and motivated Froome, so this will be a nice chance to gauge the two riders against one another.
Richie Porte doesn’t have the Grand Tour credentials of Froome, Contador, or Aru, but he’s a one-week star and should be in excellent shape. Unlike Aru, he’d probably prefer more TT mileage, but he’s still a threat to win the race.
Thibaut Pinot is the other name that stands out to me as a real contender for the overall victory. He’s had a strong year so far and motivation won’t be in question racing on French roads. Having put his problems with descending into the rearview mirror, he’ll thrive on the final few stages of this race.
The list of other contenders that come to mind includes Joaquím Rodríguez, Romain Bardet, Pierre Rolland, Daniel Moreno, Adam and Simon Yates, Louis Meintjes, and Bauke Mollema.
Alexander Kristoff and Nacer Bouhanni should battle for sprint victories (and there will be a few opportunities) with John Degenkolb another potential protagonist in the fast finishes if he’s feeling up to it.
Meanwhile, there are several punchy types and big engines to look for stage wins on the bumpier days, with Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Tony Gallopin, Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Martin, and Niki Terpstra all in attendance.
Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Fabio Aru
Other Top Contenders: Thibaut Pinot, Richie Porte, Joaquím Rodríguez, Pierre Rolland, Bauke Mollema, Mikel Landa, Sergio Henao
Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).
Episode 45: Critérium du Dauphine 2016 Pre-race Show
With the Giro d’Italia done and dusted, riders are preparing for the Tour de France with the most important “tune-up” race on the calendar. The Recon Ride previews the Critérium du Dauphiné.
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Some of the biggest names in the pro peloton are headed to France for the Critérium du Dauphiné. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano talk route, favorites, and storylines ahead of the eight-day stage race.
Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).
The 2016 Giro d’Italia comes to a conclusion Sunday in Torino. It’s a day that should go to the sprinters, but as we saw in Stage 17, anything is possible at this point in the race, with so many quick men out of the equation.
A hundred kilometers after the peloton sets out from Cuneo, it will roll onto an urban circuit of 7.5km. Each lap includes an early climb of less than 1km at around 5% and then a tricky series of corners, roundabouts, and even one tunnel en route to the finish line.
It’s the sort of finish that will have aggressive riders looking to jump clear, so if the sprinters’ teams aren’t careful, we could see an escapee steal the win.
I still think the most likely scenario is a bunch kick, however, so the list of favorites starts with the two top sprinters left in the race: Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo. As I said in Stage 17, I think Nizzolo is stronger right now, and he’s definitely better for this tricky, somewhat lumpy finish. He’s my stage favorite, but as ever, a cautious one, because picking Nizzolo to win a grand tour stage has quite literally never worked out before.
I think much of the blame for that falls on his team’s shoulders. Trek tends to disappear in the final kilometers of sprint stages, as they did in Stage 17, and if that happens here, it could tank Nizzolo’s chances once again. And even if the team is there, Modolo is a tough rival and another strong contender.
Matteo Trentin, Nikias Arndt, JJ Rojas, Heinrich Haussler, Ramunas Navardauskas, and Alexander Porsev are the other speedsters I’ll be watching Sunday.
Keep an eye on the likes of Adam Hansen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Bak, Stefan Küng, and Moreno Moser in the last few laps — they’re on the list of candidates for a breakaway victory on the day.
1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Matteo Trentin
One last day in the mountains! The GC will be decided Saturday in the Alps across three Cat. 1 ascents and Cat. 3 finale. The climbing starts immediately on a stage that has essentially no flat sections to speak of.
The second and third Cat. 1 climbs are particularly difficult, and actually rather similar. The Col de La Bonette is 22.25km at a mostly steady gradient of just under 7%, while the Colle della Lombarda is 19.85km at a little over 7%. Then comes a sharp descent into the short but steep Cat. 3 climb to the finish.
It’ll be tough to control the race on this profile (a few days ago I had this pegged as a breakaway day), but as close as the GC is, I think it will be the pink jersey hopefuls battling for the stage win in the end.
After a first week full of successful predictions, this Giro has been anything but predictable, with one rider after another appearing to be out of form only to come back with a vengeance a few days later, or looking strong only to falter just when we’re expecting big things. As such, it’s hard to be confident that Vincenzo Nibali will repeat his impressive Stage 19 performance here—but that’s what we have to go on. That, and the fact that he’s the most decorated rider in contention for the pink jersey. He looked quite strong Friday and I expect more Saturday.
Esteban Chaves should be the main competition. I think he’ll hang close with Nibali on these climbs for a while. The big unknown is just how well he’s feeling in the third week of a grand tour. Remember, Chaves has yet to finish on the podium in a three-week race.
Steven Kruijswijk has been so impressive in this Giro, so he can’t be counted out, but his crash left him injured and that makes him tough to name a top favorite for Stage 20. Keep an eye on him, but maybe watch out for Alejandro Valverde instead. He seems to be step behind Chaves in form right now, but this finale suits him perfectly if he can hang on.
Rafal Majka is the other GC rider whose chances I like here. He’ll probably have freedom to attack if he likes, and he tends to thrive on these up-and-down stages.
Should a long-range strike prove successful, watch out for Sky’s Mikel Nieve, Nicolas Roche, Sebastian Henao, and David López, as well as Darwin Atapuma, Alessandro De Marchi, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Joe Dombrowski, and Stefano Pirazzi, among others.
1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Esteban Chaves | 3. Alejandro Valverde
Friday’s stage is a short but brutal one. The route includes just two categorized climbs, but one of them (the first one) ascends to the highest point in the race. Moreover, that climb, the Colle d’Agnello, is preceded by around 50 kilometers of … climbing. All told, it’s around 70 kilometers of ascending with an average grade over 3%, with the official climb itself scaling just over 21km at just under 7%.
If that’s not enough to exhaust the riders, the summit is followed by a fast descent that runs right to the foot of the day’s other climb, a Cat. 1 ascent to Risoul. It’s 12.85km at again just under 7%.
As short as it is, the stage will be raced hard from the gun, and on these gradients, I think we are likely to see plenty of riders blow up. In terms of the battle for the stage win, I think the breakaway and the general classification riders have roughly equal chances of fighting it out Friday, but among the GC riders there are far fewer riders on the list of favorites so I’ll start there.
Steven Kruijswijk has looked like the best climber so far in this Giro. He also really wants to win a stage—he’s definitely among the top contenders for Stage 19. However, I don’t think he’ll risk throwing away the pink jersey to chase down an attack from someone three minutes down on GC unless it’s really necessary, which is why I like Esteban Chaves a bit better for this stage. The Colombian has been very strong the past two weeks and this is his terrain. The same could be said for Ilnur Zakarin, another rider who will likely get a bit of room to roam.
Alejandro Valverde looks much better than he did a week ago as well. He’s a candidate for the victory, and so is Vincenzo Nibali. The former Giro winner hasn’t shown the kind of form we’d expected of him at the start of the race, but he’s always a threat.
It’s never easy to predict a breakaway winner but a few strong candidates have emerged over the course of the Giro. Mikel Nieve, Nicolas Roche, David López, Darwin Atapuma, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Alessandro De Marchi, Giovanni Visconti, and Joe Dombrowski are other potential stage winners.
1. Esteban Chaves | 2. Steven Kruijswijk | 3. Alejandro Valverde