Tag: Picks

Tirreno-Adriatico 2016 Preview

Quite a collection talented riders is headed to Tirreno-Adriatico this week to hunt for results – and the race’s famed golden trident trophy – along the road from one side of Italy to the other. A balanced parcours offers something for everyone in the country’s first big stage race of the year.

The Route

Tirreno-Adriatico opens with a 22.7-kilometer team time trial. It’s long enough to make a difference, giving an advantage to the GC hopefuls with high-octane backing squads, but it’s not so long that it’s going to flat-out win someone the race on day one.

Stage 2 throws a few challenges at the riders at the end of a 207km day. There is a small categorized climb just before the finish that may open up a few gaps.

Stage 3 is a day for the sprinters. Stage 4 concludes with a flat stretch but a string of late climbs could inspire attacks, either from stagehunters or from aggressive GC types.

Stage 5 is the definitive queen stage, with five categorized climbs including a tough uphill finish of 13km at 6.6%.

Stage 6, the longest stage in the race, has some uncategorized ascents late on in the profile that could favor the more versatile riders in the peloton, but it’s hard to see it having any GC impact.

The race closes out with a 10km individual time trial in San Benedetto del Tronto. It’s a completely flat out-and-back run that should see some pretty high speeds.

The General Classification Contenders

Nairo Quintana won the 2015 edition of the race, but he won’t be defending his crown in 2016. However, with Alejandro Valverde leading the way, Movistar still has a great chance of coming away with a win. The Spaniard can do it all, and that’s a big plus on this varied parcours. Movistar’s great TTT will help.

Vincenzo Nibali makes the start in pursuit of a third career Tirreno title, and he too should appreciate the parcours. The queen stage involves plenty of descendning, which should allow the Italian to put his downhill abilities on display. Jakob Fuglsang gives Astana a strong Plan B.

Tejay van Garderen would probably have a hard time drawing up a more favorable parcours. BMC’s world-class TTT squad should set him up well from the get go, and the long queen stage finishing climb and stage 7 time trial will both give him a chance to put his own big engine on display. He looked strong in Andalucía last month and should be among the top favorites in Italy.

Rigoberto Urán will also like the style of climbs in this race and the closing TT, though the opening team time trial may hurt him given Cannondale’s struggle in the discipline. If he can limit his losses there, he’ll have a shot at the overall.

Joaquím Rodríguez should appreciate the plethora of opportunities to punch clear of the pack even if the chrono mileage doesn’t suit him. He has yet to deliver much this season but it’s not unusual for him to show up stronger than expected after a few quiet weeks riding tune-up races. Jurgen Van Den Broeck could be a nice alternative.

Bauke Mollema was runner-up in Tirreno in 2015 and looks to be in good form at the moment. He could be among the GC favorites trying to snipe a few seconds here and there on the intermediate stages.

Thibaut Pinot won’t be a fan of the opening TTT but he’s improved dramatically as a descender and so should be able to hold his own on the queen stag. He’s also capable of putting in a decent ITT, making him a real contender for the overall title.

Ag2r’s one-two punch of Domenico Pozzovivo and Jean-Christophe Peraud should be in the mix, as should Orica-GreenEdge’s duo of Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves. Sky brings a powerhouse trio of Michal Kwiatkowski, Vasil Kiryienka, and Wout Poels.

Diego Ulissi, Roman Kreuziger, Rafael Valls, and Rodolfo Torres are other potential protagonists in the General Classification.

The Stagehunters

Mark Cavendish looks like the fastest of the pure sprinters in attendance, although there are several big names that could challenge him in the bunch kicks. Caleb Ewan, Fernando Gaviria, Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo, and Sacha Modolo are the headliners there.

Peter Sagan should have a few opportunities of his own as well, as there are some lumpier days. Greg Van Avermaet could be in the mix as well—he actually beat Sagan in a sprint to take a stage here in 2015. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Ramunas Navardauskas, and Jens Debusschere are others worth keeping an eye on in the stagehunting game.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

Winner: Vincenzo Nibali
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Tejay van Garderen
Other Top Contenders: Rigoberto Urán, Joaquím Rodríguez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Bauke Mollema, Michal Kwiatkowski, Wout Poels

Photo: ANSA / PERI – ZENNARO.

March 9, 2016
Paris-Nice 2016 Preview

The 74th edition of Paris-Nice gets underway Saturday, which means that WorldTour racing has arrived in Europe. The startlist may have taken a slight hit in the last few years, but the race still draws plenty of talent—the sprinting field is particularly strong this year, and several top GC names are also in attendance to battle for the overall title in the “Race to the Sun.”

The Route

Paris-Nice runs for eight days, starting with a short, flat prologue in the Paris suburbs. The organizers have mixed things up with the inclusion of a few dirt road sections in the ensuing Stage 1. That could make for an interesting day of racing.

Stage 2 looks to be one for the sprinters, with Stage 3 injecting the first serious climbs into the race. A Cat. 2 finale is likely to break things up a bit on the overall leaderboard.

The sprinters will have another chance on Stage 4 before an intriguing Stage 5 that includes a partial trip up Mont Ventoux—though the visit to the iconic climb comes earlier on in the stage. The three Cat. 2 climbs that follow Ventoux could break things up further, but a flat run-in to the finish will likely keep the stage from being too decisive.

The GC is likely to be decided on Stage 6, which includes seven categorized climbs, all of them Cat. 2s or harder, with a Cat. 1 climb to the finish line.

If that hasn’t settled things, the race concludes with a lumpy stage 7, whose up-and-down profile involves six more categorized climbs, the last of which is Paris-Nice favorite Col d’Éze.

In general, it’s a route with plenty of challenges, but one that lacks either a long time trial or any particularly massive or viciously steep finishing climbs. Bonus seconds could play an important role in deciding the overall winner.

The General Classification Contenders

Richie Porte won the race last year (and in 2013) and he will look defend the title this year, riding for new team BMC. The route, however, is less Porte’s style, without a tough time trial to give him the advantage over his rivals. Furthermore, Porte might not be terribly focused on defending his Paris-Nice crown with later-season objectives on his mind—Porte was incredible in the one-week races last year, and yet all the buzz around his season focused on his inability to pull of a Grand Tour win. The Tour is likely occupying all of his focus right now.

Alberto Contador is another two-time winner of the race in attendance. He too might have preferred some changes to the route, but he’s dangerous on practically any terrain and will have plenty of opportunities to put in a characteristic Contador attack if he’s feeling up for it in March.

Romain Bardet looked strong last month in Oman, and should be on-point in Paris-Nice. He has a nice uphill kick, which should help him in the bonus seconds game, and riding on French rides his motivation should be high.

Sky’s Geraint Thomas will hope to follow up a strong 2015 performance wither another this year, and the profile should favor his riding style. Teammate Sergio Henao is another strong bet.

Rui Costa has come close here in the past and should love this year’s route. He thrives on profiles that present opportunities for escape attempts, and Paris-Nice 2016 has plenty of those. He also looks to be in good shape right about now. Louis Meintjes gives Lampre-Merida another good option.

Underrated on the short, steep stuff, Tom Dumoulin should do well on this parcours if he is motivated to fight for a result.

The same goes for Wilco Kelderman and Luis León Sánchez.

Lotto-Soudal’s Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens, Simon Yates, Rafal Majka, Ion Izagirre, Alexis Vuilermoz, Cannondale’s duo of Andrew Talansky and Pierre Rolland, and the Katusha trio of Ilnur Zakarin, Rein Taaramäe, and Simon Spilak are others who could get involved in the GC battle.

The Stagehunters

A bevy of strong sprinters should provide action on the flatter early stages. Marcel Kittel, off to a strong start this season, will be hard to beat now that he appears to be back up to speed after a down year in 2015. Alexander Kristoff, also very strong right now, will hope to best Kittel in the bunch kicks, as will André Greipel, 33 but still showing plenty of ability in the sprints.

Michael Matthews, Wouter Wippert, Arnaud Démare, Nacer Bouhanni, Juan José Lobato, and Ben Swift are others to watch in the sprint finishes.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Romain Bardet
Podium: Alberto Contador, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, Tony Gallopin, Simon Yates, Tom Dumoulin, Pierre Rolland

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Kat Rietberg (CC).

March 6, 2016
Tour Down Under 2016 Preview

The 2016 WorldTour kicks off this week in South Australia at the Tour Down Under. The race has delivered several hotly contested GC battles over the past few years (the last two editions were decided by two seconds or less) and a mostly familiar parcours and list of contenders should set up more of the same this year.

The Route

This year’s TDU is returning to several “traditional” — insofar as that word can be used to describe a race that has been around for 20 years — Tour Down Under spots, but the opening day covers new ground in the form of a sprinter’s stage to the town of Lyndoch.

Stage 2 will take the peloton on undulating roads from Unley to Stirling, where a moderately uphill finish could see the GC stars fighting for bonus seconds. The finish at Stirling played a key role in Simon Gerrans’s 2014 victory; nabbing runner-up honors on the day earned him a few bonus seconds, which proved to be just enough for a one-second GC victory when all was said and done.

Stage 3 sees the return of Corkscrew Hill after its absence from the race in 2015. The short but tough climb is followed by a descent into the finish line, which should set up some exciting racing.

Stage 4 looks to be a day for the sprinters, though a few bumps near the finish line could make things interesting.

A double ascent of Old Willunga hill awaits the peloton on Stage 5. It’s only three kilometers in length, but an average gradient over 7% makes gaps inevitable. It’s the last chance for the GC hopefuls to make their mark before a flat sixth and final stage in Adelaide.

The General Classification Contenders

Rohan Dennis took the surprise win last year in a tight battle against Richie Porte. This year, Porte joins Dennis at BMC, giving the red and black squad a formidable duo. It’s hard to say who will have the best shot this year—Porte always does well in this race even if he hasn’t won before, but he’s also going to be gunning for a Tour de France victory in 2016 and July is a long way away. Dennis seems more likely to have this race as a season target. In any case, both will be dangerous on home turf.

But three-time winner Simon Gerrans may be even more dangerous. He’s not the strongest pure climber on the startlist but the short, punchy stuff at the TDU is his bread and butter. He’s also an excellent finisher. If he’s in shape after a tough, injury-riddled 2015, Gerrans will be hard to beat, especially with the likes of Michael Albasini and Daryl Impey lending a hand.

Sky’s duo of Sergio Henao and Geraint Thomas packs a punch. Thomas was third overall in 2013, and is great on this sort of terrain. Henao doesn’t have much of a track record Down Under, but he’s an explosive climber who could surprise people in the fight for bonus seconds. As always, Sky can’t be overlooked.

Lampre-Merida also brings a nice one-two punch, with former podium finisher Diego Ulissi (third overall in 2014, when he also won a stage) and new signee Louis Meintjes. Ulissi has the perfect skillset to contend in this race, with an excellent burst of speed on the short uphill drags. Meintjes will be a fine alternative, perhaps on better form than many in attendance with the South African national championships around the corner.

Rubén Fernández was fifth in 2014 and leads a strong Movistar squad. He’s an exciting young talent with another year of experience under his belt and should be primed to take advantage of a rare chance to ride for himself at the WorldTour level. Katusha’s Rein Taaramae starred in several one-week races last year with Astana and will be keen to show off his talent for his new team. He’s smart racer who excels on a hilly parcours. Rafael Valls is another rider who will be looking to get his year with a new team (Lotto-Soudal) off to a good start.

Former winner Cam Meyer and his Dimension Data teammate Nathan Haas and climbing specialist Domenico Pozzovivo of Ag2r-La Mondiale are others to watch. So are Ryder Hesjedal, Julián Arredondo, Luis León Sánchez, Patrick Bevin, Jarlinson Pantano, Cyril Gautier, and Moreno Moser.

The Stagehunters

Australia’s Caleb Ewan will hope to thrill the home crowd on the flat stages, and I wouldn’t bet against him to pick up at least one stage for Orica-GreenEdge. His main rivals in the sprints will be Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Cannondale’s Wouter Wippert, Movistar’s Juan Jose Lobato, and IAM’s underrated Matteo Pelucchi.

The always-aggressive Jack Bobridge warrants a special mention as a breakaway specialist worth keeping an eye on—now sporting a green and gold jersey after a brilliant solo ride at the Aussie National Championships last week, Bobridge will almost certainly be on the lookout for opportunities to get clear of the pack and do his own thing up the road, just as he did in 2015 when he took the opening stage of the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Rohan Dennis, Richie Porte
Other Top Contenders: Diego Ulissi, Sergio Henao, Geraint Thomas, Rubén Fernández, Rein Taaramae, Rafael Valls, Julián Arredondo

Be sure to catch the latest Recon Ride for more pre-race thoughts on the 2016 Tour Down Under!

Photo by Brian Townsley (CC).

January 18, 2016
Il Lombardia 2015 Preview

Il Lombardia, the final race of the 2015 WorldTour, kicks of Sunday in Bergamo, Italy. 245 kilometers of up and down in Italy’s Lombardy region, Il Lombardia (formerly known as the Giro di Lombardia) is the last of the five Monument Classics on the cycling calendar. The organizers have tinkered with the profile over the course of the last few years, but a unique Northern Italian character, incredible lakeside scenery, and thrilling finishes are constant features in Il Lombardia, making it a great event to close out the season in style.

Be sure to check out the latest Recon Ride powered by VeloNews, with special insight from cycling expert and Lombardy local Gregor Brown, for more on what makes Il Lombardia stand out as a legendary bike race.

The Route

Il Lombardia gets progressively harder as the day goes on. After leaving Bergamo, the peloton will enjoy nearly 50km of flat before the road angles upward for the Colle Gallo, 7.4km at 6%. After a descent it’s another mostly flat stretch for nearly 50km once again before the long, low-gradient Colle Brianza. Another downhill leads to another flat stretch before things get a bit lumpier in the run-up to a very difficult pairing of climbs: the Madonna del Ghisallo and the Colma di Sormano.

The challenging profile of Il Lombardia makes it an excellent opportunity for the climbing specialists to take a big one-day win.

Ghisallo is an irregular climb whose average gradient doesn’t really tell the whole story. All told it’s 8.6km at an average grade of 6.2%, but it’s really a three-part climb, starting out with about 3.5km at around 9%, flattening out (even running downhill for a bit) for 4km or so, and then kicking up again at nearly 10% for the rest of the way to the top. Unfortunately for the riders, there won’t be much of a chance to rest after the climb is crested—a fast descent leads into the foot of the brutal Colma di Sormano (with a particularly challenging stretch known as the Muro di Sormano).

The climb opens with a little over 5km at 6.6%. Then things suddenly get extremely difficult. The final 1.9km have an average gradient of 15.8%, with one stretch at over 25%, which will undoubtedly see many riders dropped off the back. At least the view is nice.

As hard as the Ghisallo-Sormano combo is, the race is far from over after the pack crests the latter, as there are still about 50 kilometers left to race. From the top of the Sormano it’s a tricky descent into a flat section of about 15km, where we can expect things to get very cagey as riders jockey for position for the finale.

With a little over 21km to go the riders will hit the foot of the Civiglio, 4.2km at a vicious 9.7%. It’s consistently steep the whole way up. Then comes a very steep descent that runs into the foot of the final climb of the race, the San Fermo della Battaglia, 2.7km at 7.2%. Expect plenty of action here if the race isn’t blown to pieces already. Once the riders go over the summit, it’s a little over 3km downhill and then just 1.5km of flat to the finish line in Como.

The Contenders

This year’s route strongly favors the explosive climbing stars. A fast finish will be useful in case a small group comes to the line together, but the finale will make it very hard for riders to sit in and hold out for a big sprint. The pack will be thinned out after so much climbing, and a pair of steep launching pads in the last 20km will provide the aggressive riders with plenty of space to go on the move. Some technical descents will further favor the attackers. Those descents could get even more technical with a chance of some rain on Sunday—rain is as much a classic feature of Il Lombardia as the scenery along Lake Como, and it figures to at least play a part this year.

Alejandro Valverde’s combination of elite climbing legs, strong descending skills, Classics grit, and an excellent sprint make him an obvious entrant in the favorites conversation. Although he’s never won the race, he has been the runner-up for two years in a row now. 5th in the World Championship Road Race, he’s still in-shape even at the end of a very long season, and this is a race he’s been trying to win for a little while now. Giovanni Visconti makes for an strong second. For me, the big question mark next to Valverde’s name is whether he will be aggressive enough to take the victory—I don’t think he can take his usual approach (staying in the wheels for a reduced sprint) into this race and expect to win, with a finale so well-tailored to a do-or-die attack.

One rider who probably won’t hesitate to launch an all-or-nothing strike is Vincenzo Nibali. It’s been a down year for Nibali, and he’s never managed to take the big one-day victory he has long sought (other than Plouay back in 2006), but he’s in great form right now and this course suits him perfectly. Nibali is not a good sprinter, meaning that he’ll need to drop everyone and win this thing solo, but the gradients on the final climbs and the tricky descents that follow should give him plenty of chances to do that. Fabio Aru, Diego Rosa, and Mikel Landa are other strong options for a stacked Astana squad.

Dan Martin won Il Lombardia in 2014, but he’s only just returned to racing after a shoulder injury knocked him out of the Vuelta, which could hurt his chances of repeating. Still, this course suits him as well as ever (of his six career participations, he’s finished in the Top 10 four times in this race) and an encouraging showing in Milano-Torino (he was 14th) suggests that he’s already back in shape to contend. Tom-Jelte Slagter is a great alternative for Cannondale-Garmin if Dan Martin isn’t at 100%.

Speaking of past winners, Joaquím Rodríguez won Il Lombardia in 2012 and 2013, but he’s a late scratch this year after hurting his knee in training. Daniel Moreno will attempt to take up the flag for Katusha, and he’s not a rider to be underestimated.

Philippe Gilbert is certainly not the rider he was back when he took the win here in 2010, but he’s looked pretty strong this year and appears to be in decent late-season form. The finale suits him well, if he can make it all the way over the tough climbs. Samuel Sánchez will be a fine second. Greg Van Avermaet was originally going to ride this race as well, but he withdrew from the startlist upon returning from Richmond a bit jet-lagged.

Rui Costa was 3rd in 2014 and I expect him to contend for the win this year. He tends to attract less attention than he maybe should given his excellent array of abilities, and I think that could come in particularly handy on this profile. I wouldn’t be surprised if the peloton let him jump clear on one of the final two climbs only to see him hold out all the way to the line. Diego Ulissi is a nice backup option for Lampre-Merida.

Tim Wellens has had his sights set on improving last season’s 4th place all year long. This profile will really put him to the test, but like Costa and Nibali, he’s not afraid to go all-in on an attack, and he often gets a bit more breathing room than maybe he should (as was the case when his two-man move in the GP Montréal managed to go the distance). Tony Gallopin will also be on the limit on this course but will be a huge threat if he holds out to the finish.

AG2R sends a powerhouse team to Il Lombardia, with Domenico Pozzovivo, Romain Bardet, and Alexis Vuillermoz all capable of being in the mix. The French outfit isn’t well-known for its one-day prowess but Pozzovivo and Bardet in particular have had a few nice showings in Liège-Bastogne-Liège and this route should be even better for them. On the other side of the French team coin is FDJ, a squad sending only one strong contender this race in Thibaut Pinot, a rider who doesn’t have anything to speak of in the realm one-day results—but who is in good shape right now.

Rafal Majka was 3rd here back in 2013 and looks to be strong right now. Michal Kwiatkowski is also showing great end-of-year form for Etixx-QuickStep, and he hasn’t done much historically in this race, the profile should suit him. Orica-GreenEdge sends a team full of options: Adam and Simon Yates, Esteban Chaves, Simon Gerrans, and Michael Albasini will all have a chance here. Expect OGE to try to stick a rider in every legitimate move. Trek has Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Fränk Schleck. LottoNL-Jumbo’s Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman are worth watching. Former three-time winner Damiano Cunego, Sergio Henao, Wout Poels, Davide Rebellin, Rodolfo Torres, Warren Barguil, and Tom Dumoulin are other riders who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Vincenzo Nibali
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Tim Wellens, Rafal Majka, Philippe Gilbert, Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Daniel Moreno

As the last WorldTour race of the season, Il Lombardia is also the last event that VeloHuman will preview in 2015. I hope you’ve enjoyed the year as much as I have! Follow @VeloHuman on Twitter to stay up-to-date with the cycling world through the cold, dark offseason. The Tour Down Under will be here before you know it!

October 3, 2015
World Championships 2015: Road Race Preview

The Richmond World Championships week concludes with the elite men’s road race, which will decide who earns the right to rainbow stripes for the next 12 months. It’s been a long stretch of post-Tour of tune-up races, but it’s time for the international peloton to put it on the line in the fight for cycling’s biggest one-day prize.

The Route

The men’s elite road race runs 261.4 kilometers in total. Starting just outside town at the University of Richmond, the peloton will roll into a road circuit of 16.2km, completing a slightly reduced lap on the way to the first passing of the line then, and then riding 15 more to the race finish.

The circuit starts out fast, with mostly flat or downhill roads, but things get both lumpy and technical in the final few kilometers. There are three climbs to speak of that will likely spur plenty of action late in the race, with plenty of twists and turns thrown in along the way to give the attackers a hand in escape attempts. First up is the cobbled Libby Hill climb, 200 meters at about 8%. Then comes a short flat stretch and a fast descent into the foot of the very steep 23rd street climb, also on cobblestones, 100 meters at over 10%. After one last downhill run comes the Governor’s Street climb, 300 meters at about 7%. The climb evens out about 700 meters from the finish, though the rest of the way angles just slightly upward.

The Contenders

There is a wide variety of opinions on how this race will play out (a topic covered at length in the Recon Ride podcast p/b VeloNews, which is absolutely worth checking out). A glance at the cumulative vertical meters wouldn’t suggest that this profile is particularly difficult, but the climbs come in fast succession, the first two are cobbled, and things are technical enough that riders will be on edge all day. Throw in a high chance of a rain and what appears to be a less challenging course could get very messy.

It’s hard to say whether the race will come down to a sprint or to a late escape. The severity of the weather could make the difference. In any case, the flatter finish will make sprinting legs a major asset for the rainbow jersey hopefuls. There are several riders in Richmond who combine impressive top-end speed with respectable climbing legs and classics-style grit, and it is those riders who stand out as the top favorites for what has to be described as a wide open worlds road race.

Alexander Kristoff is certainly among the top names in the race. If Kristoff can bring the form he showed in the Tour of Flanders into this race, he’ll be deadly: he didn’t wait around for large group sprint in that race, instead attacking late on with Niki Terpstra and holding out for the win. If he can win on the more challenging parcours of De Ronde, he should be able to handle Richmond if the form is there, latching onto a small group if need be. Recent showings in the Arctic Race of Norway, the Vattenfall Cyclassics, the GP Ouest-France, and the GP Québec suggest that he’s in great shape. His Norwegian squad brings only six riders, but there are enough sprinters in the race to probably keep things under control, so I don’t really see the six-man squad at much of a disadvantage. Speaking of Norwegian teammates, Edvald Boasson Hagen will be an excellent second card to play for the squad, on blazing form right now and on a course that suits hits talents.

John Degenkolb beat Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo this year, and worked his own late-escape-magic to take the victory in Paris-Roubaix. Again, if the form is there, Degenkolb should thrive, though he hasn’t had quite a successful Worlds buildup as Kristoff. He also hasn’t had quite as much success on cobbled climbs over the years, so it’s hard to say how he’ll feel about Libby Hill. In any case, he’s a huge threat to win if he’s in shape, and a powerhouse German squad is ready to set him up for the victory. André Greipel is on the squad as well, and will be an obvious favorite if he can survive the tough day.

Peter Sagan has just the perfect skillset for this course: he’s an excellent bike handler, he loves the short climbs, and he can be in the mix with the best in a sprint. I will be very surprised if he’s not on the podium at the end of the day. A moto crash at the Vuelta interrupted his buildup campaign but he should still be in good shape to fight for the win. The biggest challenge will be the distance, as his Grand Tour stage-winning sprinting legs have often lost a bit of luster at the end of long Classics.

Michael Matthews is the other sprinting talent who stands out as a top favorite. On the one hand, I like his climbing legs and love his form right now after an impressive showing in Québec. I also think Australia will ride well in support of him. On the other hand, Matthews’s talents have not yet translated into all that much one-day success compared to his top rivals here, and a long and potentially hectic Worlds course will be a tough place for him to make the leap to the next level. Still, he’s a big threat, and his top-end speed may be underrated by some. Teammate Simon Gerrans is an unknown for Australia: the course suits him, but form is a total question mark after several crashes this season. Obviously keep an eye on the two-time Monument winner.

The Belgian squad starts the two riders I see as most likely to win the race with a late solo move, as well as a few other contenders. Greg Van Avermaet is my top pick on the team. This is a good route for him, with steep cobbled sections to escape the pack and twists and turns to stay clear. If he comes to the line in a small group, Van Avermaet packs a strong sprint. I expect to see him near the top of the leaderboard after 261.4km. Philippe Gilbert could also get involved. The climbs might not be as long as he’d prefer but he’s looked good this year and his strong team should be able to set him up nicely for an attack. Sep Vanmarcke and Tom Boonen are other good options.

Speaking of Classics riders, Zdenek Stybar should thrive here—he’s in shape, he loves cobbled climbs, and he’s not being talked about as much as the fast finishers. The former cyclocross world champion will shine if the rain makes things messy.

France has Arnaud Démare and Nacer Bouhanni for a potential sprint, but I like the chances of both Julian Alaphilippe and Tony Gallopin even better. Gallopin thrives in selective finishes, and Alaphilippe was active in the Canadian GPs.

Defending world champion Michal Kwiatkowski will have his work cut out for him trying to hold onto the rainbow jersey, but he’s an excellent bike handler and descender who will love the technical finale. He also showed good form in the Canadian GPs even if the results didn’t show much. It would be a mistake to underestimate him. Also likely to be overlooked a bit given the course, 2013 world champ Rui Costa could be involved as well after a strong showing in Montréal.

Niki Terpstra is my top outsider pick for the Worlds Road Race. He looked very strong in the Vuelta, he’s made great strides climbing on the cobbles, and he’s even got speed for a sprint. The Dutch team is strong and it’s been flying under the radar. Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom are other riders to watch.

Spain may be nominally riding for Alejandro Valverde, and he certainly has a chance with the late climbs, but I’m eying Juan José Lobato as well. His season quieted down after a great start but he looked good in the Tour of Britain and is very fast when in form.

Matti Breschel always seems to show up for Worlds and this course suits him. Italy does not have a team that is particularly suited to the course, but with a huge collection of talents on the squad maybe something will work out. I especially like Matteo Trentin, but there is plenty of firepower on the Italian team. Taylor Phinney will fly the flag for the home nation. This course suits him very well, but it’s impossible to say how his form will hold up over the course of 261.4km in his first big one-day race back from injury. Still, his time trial performance hinted that he’s in good shape. Tyler Farrar is the sprint option for Team U.S.A. Ben Swift, Ramunas Navardauskas, Michael Albasini, and Sam Bennett are on the very long list of outsiders who could surprise the big favorites in Richmond.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Juan José Lobato, Julian Alaphilippe.

VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.

Photo by Sean Rowe (CC).

September 26, 2015
World Championships 2015: Individual Time Trial Preview

With the World Championships well underway, the elite men’s individual time trial title is up for grabs in Richmond. Bradley Wiggins is not around to defend his rainbow jersey, but there are plenty of chrono specialists looking to succeed him as the world champ.

The Route

The lion’s share of the 53km men’s ITT course sits outside the city of Richmond. Only in the final few 10km or so do the roads start to get particularly urban. Before that, it’s mostly rolling countryside.

The official profile may appear to have plenty of ups and downs, but this is a pretty flat course.

The riders will set out from the King’s Dominion amusement park and work their way south into town, where the route gets slightly (but not a lot) more technical in the final run-in to the finish.

While the profile highlights every single small riser and short downhill stretch, this is not a particularly hilly time trial, and we can expect the TT heavyweights to get up to pretty high speeds.

The Favorites

Tony Martin, in the hunt for his fourth world title, is the top favorite to take the victory. The long, mostly flat course suits him very well, and without Bradley Wiggins around, no one can match Martin in terms of peak ability. It’s been an odd year for Martin, who hasn’t built up as dominant a record in the TTs as he did in 2013 or 2014, but he’s the most accomplished rider on the startlist and in his prime, so it’s hard to bet against him.

Tom Dumoulin ran 3rd in 2014 and has consistently been among cycling’s best against the clock, but it’s hard to know just how strong he’ll be after an exhausting Vuelta. Dumoulin fought hard for a GC position all the way to the final mountain stage, and that takes its toll. Still, he’s had a bit of time to recover and could be in the mix.

Rohan Dennis may be the best-positioned to challenge Martin for the win. It won’t be easy, but Dennis has had an excellent season and proved his form leading BMC Racing to a TTT title on Sunday.

It would be a huge surprise if the world title went to any rider outside that trio. Adriano Malori is among the best of the rest—he’s had a comparatively quiet season at the highest level of racing but has won several Continental Tour TTs, including one very recently over Tony Martin at the Tour de Poitou Charentes.

Pre-injury Taylor Phinney probably expected to be challenging for the world title by 2015, but things haven’t quite gone as planned over the past two seasons. Still, Phinney looks very strong right now and is riding in from of home fans. Given what he proved to be capable of in time trials early on in his career, he can’t be counted out.

Vasil Kiryienka was very impressive in the Giro’s long time trial and always does well at Worlds. Alex Dowsett can run hot and cold but (along with Malori) he had enough form to help Movistar to a podium spot in the TTT Sunday. Matthias Brändle, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta, Luke Durbridge, Rasmus Quaade, Wilco Kelderman, Jonathan Castroviejo, Rigoberto Urán, and Stefan Küng are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Tony Martin
Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Rohan Dennis
Other Top Favorites: Adriano Malori, Taylor Phinney, Vasil Kiryienka, Matthias Brändle, Rasmus Quaade, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta

VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.

Photo by Sean Rowe (CC).

September 22, 2015