Tag: Picks

  • World Championships 2015: Team Time Trial Preview

    World Championships 2015: Team Time Trial Preview

    21108054648_9208ac0f5b_kThe 2015 World Championships get underway with the team time trial, and the showdown for the men’s world title this year should be a good one. The TTT is often a predictable discipline, but there is not one team that can claim to be the sole heavy favorite in Richmond.

    The Route

    The 38.8km course starts in Richmond’s rural suburbs in Henrico County, heading south into town along gently rolling roads. The teams will pass through Richmond but then continue south and reenter Henrico County, before making an about face on open country roads and heading back downtown for the finish.

    The Richmond team time trial course is not flat, but none of the climbs are particularly long or steep.
    None of the climbs along the Richmond team time trial route are particularly long or steep.

    Things will get a bit technical as the riders make their way along more urban roads towards the line, but all told it’s a pretty straightforward TTT without any serious challenges.

    The Contenders

    It’s rare for there to be multiple candidates with a decent chance of winning a team time trial, but three teams stand out as potential contenders for the TTT title this year.

    BMC Racing comes in as the defending champion. Tejay van Garderen and Peter Velits are missing from that 2014 squad, but the riders taking their places are no slouch. Specialists Taylor Phinney and Stefan Küng should do just fine. BMC has done an excellent job of defending the title throughout the season and should be in the mix again at worlds.

    Etixx-QuickStep is the squad most likely to challenge BMC. Always strong in the discipline, EQS could only manage 3rd place in 2014. Replicating that performance shouldn’t be too hard given all the firepower they have (especially with Rigoberto Urán looking very sharp right now), but they want to reclaim the world title. I think the Belgian team has a very good chance, but I might give BMC a very slight edge: QuickStep’s TTT performances have not been quite up to the team’s typically elite standard all year long.

    The team time trial is a huge target for Orica-GreenEdge, a squad with several decent chrono riders who always manage to work together to churn out an impressive group effort. Svein Tuft doesn’t have quite the same power that he used to have, however, and while I see GreenEdge as the third contender here, it’s a clear third behind a neck-and-neck BMC and EQS.

    Of the rest of the teams vying for the championship title in Richmond, Movistar looks to be the most likely to surprise the three top favorites. The TTT is about a lot more than just putting as many elite ITT specialists into one time, which is why an always well-oiled OGE machine can punch above the weight its collective parts, but there is something to be said for having several very powerful engines all working towards the same goal. Led by Adriano Malori, Alex Dowsett, and Jonathan Castroviejo, Movistar has just that. A podium performance could be within the reach of the Spanish squad.

    I see Tinkoff-Saxo, Astana, LottoNL-Jumbo, and Sky as the other potential outsiders, though it would be a huge surprise if any of them could come away with the overall win.

    Usually, VH names a full Top 10 of contenders in previews for stage races and one-day events, but since naming 10 teams would cover more than a third of the Worlds TTT field, naming a Top 5 seems like a more fitting approach.

    VeloHuman Top 5 Race Favorites

    Winner: BMC Racing
    Podium: Etixx-QuickStep, Orica-GreenEdge
    Other Top Contenders: Movistar, Tinkoff-Saxo

    VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.

    Photo by Bill Dickinson (CC).

  • Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal 2015 Preview

    Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal 2015 Preview

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    After Rigoberto Urán delivered a surprise win in Québec, the racing moves on the Montréal. A slightly hillier course could favor the attackers even more, which will make predicting an already unpredictable race quite a challenge!

    The Route

    The Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal takes on 17 laps of a 12.1km circuit for a total distance of 205.7 kilometers. The race starts along the Avenue du Parc, makes a loop along the slopes of Mount Royal, and then finishes back where it started.

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    There are three uphill sections in each lap. After a short downhill from the starting line, the first and most difficult climb comes almost immediately: the Côte Camillien-Houde, 1.8 kilometers at an 8% average gradient. From the top, there is a fast descent, a brief flat section, and the next uphill test, the short but difficult Côte de la Polytechnique, 780 meters at a 6% average. There is a particularly steep 200m section of about 11% along the way. After another descent, things even out for a bit until the final 1100 meters: the riders will make a right turn heading south and shoot downhill on the Avenue du Parc, and then they will make a 180 degree turn to head right back up the Avenue in the other direction towards the finish. That final run-in is a 560m, 4% climb.

    The Contenders

    While the startlists are the same and many of the top contenders are the same, the Montréal circuit is, on the whole, harder than that of the GP Québec. “The two are different,” Rui Costa told VeloHuman from Québec. “Montreal is a race that I think is harder, and more open.”

    The Côte Camillien-Houde, crested 17 times, will put the heavier riders into serious difficulty and will likely see a smaller group coming into the final few laps than the peloton in Montréal. An attack on the 8% gradients has a decent chance of holding out over the final few up and down kilometers. The finish in Montreal, however, is a fair bit easier, which means that a select group of escapees could find themselves battling it out in a sprint. Orica-GreenEdge kept the race on lockdown last year, allowing a sizable bunch to finish together, but that was rather unusual for this race, and I’d expect a more select group to battle for the win this time around. Whatever the scenario, explosiveness and excellent climbing legs are important.

    It was not a real shocker to see an Etix-QuickStep rider take the win in Québec, given all the firepower they have, though Rigoberto Urán seemed like maybe the fourth best option on his team! In any case, EQS will have another excellent opportunity to nab the win in Montréal. Julian Alaphilippe looked strong in an escape attempt that was ultimately reeled in in Québec, and Michal Kwiatkowski looked particularly impressive chasing down Greg Van Avermaet. Despite Urán’s victory, I still see Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski as the top EQS riders for Montréal, as Urán won’t be taking anyone by surprise this time; in fact, I’d be just as surprised if he won Montréal now that he’s no longer under the radar. Still, watch out for the Colombian: he’s got all the right skills for these races, and although he’s basically taken a two-year hiatus from contending in the Classics, there was a time when he was a top rider for the Ardennes and in Lombardy—and apparently still has those skills hiding under the hood.

    Rui Costa has won in Montréal in the past and was runner-up in 2014. Without Simon Gerrans around, I like his chances this year. He looks to be in good form. The biggest question is team leadership. Costa made it into the select group that appeared to have their shot at fighting for the Québec win before hesitation allowed the larger pack to catch back up, but then Lampre-Merida backed Diego Ulissi in the final sprint. The Italian could be a strong contender in Montréal as well. Both riders are great climbers with explosive side, and my first instinct is to see Costa as the man for Montréal given his past performances, but Lampre might not see it that way, which makes it harder to view Costa as an out-and-out favorite.

    For most of the day in Québec, BMC looked to be the strongest team in the race, contributing to the chase of the early break and then involving themselves in one attack after another. It didn’t work out in the end, but it showed the team’s strength and that bodes well for Greg Van Avermaet and Philippe Gilbert in Montréal. The selective profile will weed out some of the purer sprinters, but the less difficult finish will provide an excellent opportunity for both riders, who can rely on their impressive uphill speed, with a shot in a reduced sprint. I’m not sure either one is at full strength just yet with Worlds as such a major goal, but they’ll be close to their best. I like Van Avermaet a bit more than Gilbert, as he’s been coming to the GP Montréal for so many years running now, but both are contenders.

    Tony Gallopin, 3rd last year, showed good form with an 8th place in Québec. The way I see it, Montréal suits him better. He’s a excellent tactician who knows how to make an attack, and he has the fast finish to win out of a small group. He appears to be in terrific form as well. He was in the small group that made it up the Côte de la Montagne at the head of the race in Québec, and still managed to come in 8th in the final sprint after that group was swept up (Van Avermaet, also in that small group initially, could only manage 10th despite being near the front in the finale). In a wide-open race, I like Gallopin’s chances to turn last year’s third-place result into a win. If he doesn’t, Tim Wellens, Jurgen Roelandts, and Tiesj Benoot are other options for a loaded Lotto-Soudal.

    Michael Matthews was the runner-up in Québec and he’ll have a shot in Montréal, but I see the parcours as being just a bit too difficult to view him near the top of the favorites (oddsmakers disagree with me on this one). In any case, if Matthews is not able to handle the climbs, it shouldn’t be too much of a problem for OGE, who have Adam Yates (on blazing form at the moment), Simon Yates, and Michael Albasini too.

    Tom-Jelte Slagter is in the best form he’s been in all season. He was 4th in Québec, and although he’s had better results there in the past, I think Montréal suits him well too. He can handle tough climbs without too much trouble. Slagter isn’t going to Worlds, having suddenly found his form after the Dutch team selection, and I therefore expect he’ll be giving it everything he has to pull something off in Montréal. Ramunas Navardauskas and Ryder Hesjedal are other options for Cannondale-Garmin.

    Lars Petter Nordhaug won here in 2012 and count be counted out. Trek’s Bauke Mollema and Fabio Felline make for a great 1-2 punch. The same is true for Giant-Alpecin’s Simon Geschke and Warren Barguil. Europcar has Tommy Voeckler, while FDJ can rely on Arthur Vichot. AG2R is the French squad with the widest array of options: Romain Bardet, Alexis Vuillermoz, and Jan Bakelants are all potential contenders. I was very impressed with LottoNL-Jumbo in Québec, and see Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman liking this parcours even more—Sep Vanmarcke is another option for the men in yellow.

    Alexander Kristoff was surprisingly in the mix in Québec but it’s hard to see him holding on over the more challenging GP Montréal parcours. Hesitation at the head of the race late on in Québec helped his chances but I doubt he’ll get that kind of gift again, though obviously he’ll be a favorite if he’s there for a sprint.

    VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

    Winner: Tony Gallopin
    Podium: Rui Costa, Tom-Jelte Slagter
    Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michal Kwiatkowski, Philippe Gilbert, Julian Alaphilippe, Michael Matthews, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema

    VeloHuman will be at the race so be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis!

  • Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 21 Preview

    Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 21 Preview

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    Stage 21: Alcalá de Henares › Madrid – 98.8km

    On the heels of a thrilling Stage 20 that turned the Vuelta upside-down comes the final stage, very likely to end in a straightforward sprint.

    Less than a hundred kilometers long and without any real climbs, the final stage of the Vuelta won’t be particularly hard. The main challenge will be the urban roads—after about 40km riding through the suburbs, the peloton will ride into a city circuit for 10 5.8km laps, and there are plenty of twists and turns in store.

    Given the profile, a sprint is the likeliest scenario. A few of the quick men have stayed on in the race through the mountains for this opportunity, and they’re likely to put their teams on the front to keep things under control.

    John Degenkolb has endured a long and challenging Vuelta without a stage win, but he should be the clear top dog among the sprinters left in the race. In terms of top speed, he’s the proven name here. However, Degenkolb has not been nearly as dominant as expected against a diminished field here, and while I still see him as the favorite, others will have their shot.

    Danny Van Poppel is probably the strongest potential challenger to Degenkolb. Trek has had a great Vuelta and the team is highly motivated in the battle for stage wins. While Degenkolb has the edge over most riders here on pure speed, Van Poppel actually comes pretty close, and if he can win the battle for position he’s got a shot at a second Vuelta stage win.

    Kristian Sbaragli won a messy Stage 10 to show off his sprinting chops and should be in the mix again on Stage 21. It’s likely to be a pretty hectic finale with all the cornering to be done, and that could help Sbaragli take another win over riders who might be faster in a test of pure speed.

    José Joaquín Rojas, Max Richeze, Daniele Bennati, Tosh Van Der Sande, Tom Van Asbroeck, and Jean-Pierre Drucker are the outsiders with a shot in the likely sprint finish.

    Of course, a late attack by the likes of Adam Hansen or Sylvain Chavanel can’t be ruled out: it’s been a long Vuelta and it’s possible someone could catch the sprinters’ teams off guard on a circuit that is technical enough to make things interesting.

    VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

    1. John Degenkolb | 2. Danny Van Poppel | 3. Kristian Sbaragli

    The final stage of the Vuelta marks the 63rd and final Grand Tour stage preview from VeloHuman this season. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed all the action! Be sure to keep an eye out for the next few episodes of the Recon Ride podcast and for pre-race thoughts on the last few events of the season, and follow @VeloHuman for more analysis.

  • Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 20 Preview

    Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 20 Preview

    PROFIL

    San Lorenzo de El Escorial › Cercedilla – 175.8km

    Stage 20 will almost certainly be the final stage of the Vuelta with GC implications, and fortunately for anyone hoping for a close fight, the profile should set up a thriller.

    The road from start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial to the finish in Cercedilla won’t be easy, with four Cat. 1s along the way. The road goes upward right from the start, gradually rising into the foot of the Puerto de Navacerrada, 9.4km at 6.6%. Then comes a flat section and then descent to the foot of the Puero de la Morcuera, 11.5km at 5.4%. It’s a grand chance to get acclimated to the climb: from the top, the riders will descend down to a flat stretch before circling back around and going right back up again, albeit on a partially different route for 10.4 total kilometers of climbing at 6.6%. One more downhill leads into the last official climb of the 2015 Vuelta.

    11km at 5.3%, the Puerto de Cotos is challenging by itself but it’s really the incessant nature of the climbing on Stage 20 that will do the most damage. The gradients on the final climb aren’t that steep.

    After the KOM summit, there’s a 7km flat section before a descent to the finish, where the road kicks up again in the final moment for 200 meters at almost 10%.

    As the last mountain stage in the Vuelta, Stage 20 will be a critical opportunity for the GC riders to change their fortunes before Madrid. Even without a summit finish, the motivation should be there for the top riders in the race to make this a challenging day. The up-and-down profile does make for an appealing route for the breakaway, though, and the riders up the road early will at least have some chance at success if the GC favorites hold off on any serious hostilities until late in the day.

    If the GC men are the ones vying for the stage, Alejandro Valverde is the prime pick for the stage victory. His skillset is perfect for Stage 20, where the climbs might not be hard enough to blow up the group of overall favorites before the finish. Valverde is also highly motivated to nab a result now that he’s feeling good again after a few off days.

    Joaquím Rodríguez is an obvious candidate as well with this finish, though Daniel Moreno is also looking strong. Moreno may be an even stronger candidate for victory right now, and Katusha does not appear to be afraid to let Purito’s loyal lieutenant strike out on his own every once in a while.

    Fabio Aru will certainly try to distance Tom Dumoulin on this stage, and while I was under the belief a few days ago that he’d be successful, I’m not so sure after Aru’s crash on Stage 19. He looks to be a bit worse for the wear. What’s more, Tom Dumoulin has a lot of pop and could shine in this finish if he can make it over all the climbs with the leaders. He can’t be counted out for the stage victory.

    Esteban Chaves, Rafal Majka, and Nairo Quintana are all showing strong enough form, and are all far enough behind Dumoulin, that it wouldn’t be all that surprising if any of them launched a stage-winning attack on the final categorized climb.

    For riders who will be candidates for breakaway success, look to the strongest of the riders who have been consistently involved in the battle to make it into the early move. Romain Sicard, Nicolas Roche, Rodolfo Torres, Alessandro De Marchi, Darwin Atapuma, Rubén Plaza, and Giovanni Visconti are all on the long list of potential winners from afar.

    VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

    1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

    Don’t miss the Recon Ride’s third and final Vuelta podcast, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20.

  • Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 19 Preview

    Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 19 Preview

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    Stage 19: Medina del Campo › Ávila – 185.8km

    The Vuelta’s 19th stage, much like the Vuelta’s 18th stage, looks like a great day for the breakaway artists. The rouleurs will have this one final chance at a Vuelta stage win before a Stage 20 that will favor the strong climbers and then the sprinters’ Stage 21—that should make for an exciting battle.

    The profile is a lumpy one, but there are only two categorized climbs on the menu. The first 70km are very slightly uphill. The comes a succession of rollers that lead into the first official climb of the day, the Cat. 3 Alto de Valdavia. Then comes a long stretch of mostly downhill roads with a few little climbs along the way, running in to a short flat section from kilometer 140 to kilometer 150. From there, the road angles upward again for several kilometers, with a stretch of uncategorized climbing and then the Cat. 2 Alto de la Paramera, 8.7km at 4.5%. It’s not the hardest climb in the world but the uncategorized run-in will make it significantly more challenging, and the length is likely to rule out most of the sprinters on this stage.

    After the KOM summit there are 19 mostly kilometers to the finish. It’s downhill most of the way, before the road angles upward in the last 2.5km, with a stretch of roughly 6% in the beginning before the gradients get a bit lower in the final km.

    The long climb that comes relatively close to the finish will probably be too much for the sprinters, but not hard enough to spur all that much GC excitement in the leadup. That makes this an excellent day for the breakaway specialists, which of course means that there are no real favorites for Stage 19, though there are a few candidates for breakaway success whose chances look to be particularly strong.

    After two and a half weeks of riding as a loyal Movistar lieutenant, Giovanni Visconti finally showed some interest in getting up the road on Stage 18, but he missed the main move and then found the task of bridging to the group to be too much. With that motivation in mind, he has to be among the top contenders for Stage 19. He can climb with the GC favorites on a good day, and also has a nice sprint, particularly in a hilly finale, making him dangerous here. José Joaquín Rojas made the breakaway on Stage 18, and if he has recovered well enough he’s a candidate from the break too.

    Caja Rural’s José Goncalves couldn’t quite bridge to the leaders in the waning moments of Stage 18, but he’ll have another chance here if he’s got some energy left in the tank. This finish suits him perfectly. Pello Bilbao is another strong option for Caja Rural.

    Julien Simon tends to fly under the radar, putting in Top 10s here and there but rarely nabbing a big win, but this stage suits him down to the ground. He can survive a climb, and he’s a very fast finisher, especially with a slight gradient at the line.

    Alessandro De Marchi and Darwin Atapuma would prefer a more difficult parcours but both are strong in a breakaway scenario. The same is true for Cyril Gautier and Romain Sicard, who are running out of chances to deliver a Vuelta a España win for Europcar after several near misses.

    Rubén Plaza and Kristijan Durasek are both excellent options for Lampre. Plaza won a not-dissimilar stage in the Tour this year.

    Luis León Sánchez, Adam Hansen, Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans, and Stephen Cummings are others to watch out for as potential candidates for long-range success on Stage 19.

    If this does come down to the pack, a bunch sprint seems unlikely. John Degenkolb is the clear favorite in that scenario, but it’s more probable that the likes of Alejandro Valverde and Daniel Moreno (along with the faster finishers mentioned above who don’t make it into the break) battle it out for the stage from a more select group.

    VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

    1. Giovanni Visconti | 2. José Goncalvez | 3. Julien Simon

    Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 19.

  • Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec 2015 Preview

    Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec 2015 Preview

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    As the Vuelta rages on, another contingent of the WorldTour peloton is in North America for the Grands Prix Cyclistes of Québec and Montréal. The startlists in the Canadian GPs are always excellent, but the rosters are particularly impressive this year thanks to the presence of Worlds in Richmond, Virginia, which is far closer to Canada than it is to Europe (the Worlds prep storyline is just one of many covered in the latest Recon Ride, which is absolutely worth a listen). Friday’s GP Québec is the first race on the docket—and VH will be at the event in-person, so stay tuned here and on Twitter @VeloHuman.

    The Route

    The profile of the GP Québec always sets up an exciting race. The climbs aren’t too difficult by themselves, but repeated ascents, and the placement of steep gradients in the run-up to the line makes it a selective race.

    The final few kilometers of the GP Québec typically make for a hectic finale.
    The final few kilometers of the GP Québec typically make for a hectic finale.

    The GP Québec is a circuit race of 16 laps of 12.6km each. The first 4 kilometers of the circuit are mostly flat. Then comes a steep descent down to the St. Lawrence River waterfront. After 4 flat kilometers by the river, things get challenging, as the road winds its way up one climb after another, gradually making its way back up to the start finish line. The final 3.5 km trend upward, but it’s an irregular ascent comprising several individual steeper sections with a few downhill and flat stretches in between. There are four official climbs: the Côte de la Montaigne (375m at 10%), the Côte de la Potasse (420m at 9%), the Montée de la Fabrique (190m at 7%), and then the run-up to the finish, which starts on the Montée du Fort and ends on the Grand Allée (1km at 4%).

    By themselves, the late climbs may not look like much, but taken in short succession so many times, they tend to whittle down the peloton before the final lap, when they serve as a springboard for countless attacks.

    The Contenders

    The GP Québec is a well-balanced circuit that can either come down to a selective sprint or a late attack. In either scenario, climbing legs are important. Strongmen tend to thrive even when a group kick decides the race, as the peloton is always lined out for the final few hectic kilometers, and it’s impossible for the traditional sprinters to stay as well-protected as they might on a flat Grand Tour stage.

    The 2014 winner, Simon Gerrans, is not here to defend his title. Combined with an excellent startlist, that makes for a wide open race. Almost every team in the race has a rider who could conceivably win, and some teams have two or even three riders who are legitimate threats. This race is always unpredictable (Robert Gesink won the 2013 edition in an uphill sprint ahead of Peter Sagan, for instance) but it’s even more difficult to predict how things will turn out this year.

    In any case, it’s probably safe to bet on BMC to put in a good ride. Philippe Gilbert won the race in 2011, and Greg Van Avermaet has been in the Top 10 every year since. Both riders are here for the 2015 edition. Van Avermaet loves the Canadian GPs and has come very close to winning both, and he looks to be on excellent form right now. The GP Québec suits him very well, with late climbs that appeal to the aggressive riders and a finish that could allow him to use his killer uphill sprint if a small group comes to the line. In the absence of Gerrans, Van Avermaet will be a strong contender for the win. So will Gilbert, of course, who has looked good all year. He won the sprint for 2nd in San Sebastián out of an impressive group, and showed good form in the Eneco Tour as well. BMC could send one of their leaders up the road in the finale, and allow the other to vie for the win in a small group kick, and given the versatility of both Belgians, either rider could play either role.

    Orica-GreenEdge may be without the defending champion, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a race favorite in Canada. In fact, they have more than one. Michael Matthews could do the job of defending the title for the team if his squad can reel in all the inevitable late attacks. This will be a challenging finish for Matthews, who will have the battle to stay at the front of a lined-out pack, but if he can hold on until the end of the climb he will be a major threat. If not, OGE will still have other options. Michael Albasini is always deadly in an uphill sprint, and Adam and Simon Yates are both potential attackers.

    Etixx-QuickStep can rely on the 1-2 punch of Michal Kwiatkowski and Julian Alaphilippe, who both bring similar skillsets to the table. With Kwiatkowski on unknown form, Alaphilippe may be the better option. He has the speed to win a selective sprint on these gradients.

    Between Bauke Mollema, Fabio Felline, and Julián Arredondo, Trek should be able to come up with at least one top finisher. Lampre-Merida’s duo of Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi may be a bit better-suited to the somewhat harder Montréal race, but the extremely impressive startlist could make this race more selective than usual, and that could favor the pair. Costa always does well in Canada and will be hungry to get a late-season result after a disappointing summer. Ramunas Navardauskas was 3rd here last year and could be a threat again, but Cannondale-Garmin teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter may be the better option coming off of two Tour of Alberta stage wins and 3rd overall on GC. He hasn’t been on the best form for much of the season, but when he’s at his best, he’s terrific on just this sort of profile.

    Tony Gallopin will likely be the best option for Lotto-Soudal thanks to his skillset that combines a fast finish with excellent climbing legs, but Tim Wellens, Jurgen Roelandts, and Tiesj Benoot could also threaten. LottoNL-Jumbo is yet another team with multiple options: former winner Robert Gesink can’t be counted out, and Sep Vanmarcke is on great form and could nab a result if he can leave the bunch behind in the finale.

    Lars Petter Nordhaug, Alexey Lutsenko, Michael Valgren, Tommy Voeckler, Matti Breschel, and the AG2R trio of Jan Bakelants, Alexis Vuillermoz, and Romain Bardet are others who could shine in a selective finale—if the faster finishers all look at each other in the last few kilometers, it’s a real possibility that this race could go to a lone surprise attacker or a small group of them taking advantage of the hesitation of the bigger favorites.

    There are always sprinters making the trip to Québec who probably won’t have much of a shot at winning the race, but given the level of talent assembled they are at least worth mentioning. Alexander Kristoff, in excellent shape with Worlds around the corner, and Bryan Coquard, light enough to be a potential contender on the climbs, are probably the best candidates out of the bunch. Sam Bennett, Heinrich Haussler, Wouter Wippert, and Arnaud Démare are others in attendance.

    VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

    Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
    Podium: Michael Matthews, Julian Alaphilippe
    Other Top Contenders: Tony Gallopin, Fabio Felline, Rui Costa, Philippe Gilbert, Sep Vanmarcke, Michael Albasini, Tom-Jelte Slagter

    Don’t miss the Recon Ride’s GP Québec (and Montréal) pre-race podcast, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more analysis during the race.