Tag: Picks

Tour of Beijing 2014 Preview

The WorldTour calendar concludes with the Tour of Beijing, a five-day stage race in and around China’s capital city. The event may be in its final year of existence, but it should provide a good show: plenty of big names have made the trip to China for the farewell party. The race may not have the history or prestige of other stage races on the WT calendar, but it is the last opportunity for the pros to pick up WorldTour wins, and it also tends to see a relatively high number teams filling their squads with younger riders hunting name-making victories. In short, there is still plenty of motivation in the peloton to land results in this race.

The Route

The organizers have added a few extra bumps between the Stage 1 start and the Stage 5 finish, but this race has always had plenty of opportunities for the sprinters and the 2014 edition is no exception. The opening stage has a few early hills but the second half of the stage is mostly flat or downhill, and anything but a sprint finish would be a surprise. Stage 2 offers a few uphill tests, but a long stretch of flat before the finish will favor the faster finishers again. Stage 3 could shake things up, with seven categorized climbs, including a Cat. 1 in the middle of the day and a Cat. 3 crested 11 kilometers from the finish.

Stage 4: Yanqing › Mentougou Miaofeng Mountain (157 km) – The Queen Stage of the Tour of Beijing concludes with a climb of Miaofeng Mountain; this race was won on its slopes last year, and the ascent is likely to be the decisive test in this year’s edition as well.

Stage 4 is the Queen Stage of the Tour of Beijing, and it closes out with the Maofeng Mountain climb that decided last year’s edition of the race (Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti sailed past Dan Martin to take the stage and, ultimately, the time gap that led to his overall victory, on the final slopes). This year, a Category 2 test has been added just before the final ascent to provide extra excitement; this should be the most important GC day in the race. The fifth and final stage starts in Tiananmen Square and heads into an urban circuit that finishes near the National Stadium (typically known as the Bird’s Nest) built for the 2008 Olympics. It’s a pan-flat profile and should see another sprint showdown for the final WorldTour victory of 2014.

The General Classification Contenders

Daniel Martin of Garmin-Sharp is one of a collection of riders who have continually targeted this race, young though it may be, over the past few years. The Irish climber came close to victory last year, but Movistar had too much firepower in the Queen Stage, and Martin had to settle for second. When he has been healthy this year, Martin has been very strong, and coming off his second career Monument victory last weekend, he is obviously on blazing form. He is very well-suited to the Tour of Beijing: this is a short race that is likely to be decided on one or two climb-heavy days, which will give an explosive talent like Martin a chance to showcase his abilities, while limiting the likelihood of a bad day. Ryder Hesjedal will be a very strong second. Garmin has the strength here to fight for the overall victory.

Rui Costa was part of that powerhouse Movistar squad in 2013, coming in 4th overall, but this year he rides as team leader for Lampre-Merida. He has showed strong late-season form, he told VH this past weekend that he’s targeting a big result here in Beijing, and he is always very dangerous in the weeklong stage races at the highest level, with already three podium finishes (including a win) in the World one-weekers this year. Costa is motivated to close out his season with a victory, and should again be in the mix at the top of the leaderboard, especially with a few added challenges in this years race that could favor his brand of aggressive riding on the harder days.

BMC’s one-two punch of Tejay van Garderen and Samuel Sanchez will be hard to counter. At peak form, van Garderen is one of the very best stage racers on this startlist, but his shape, and his motivation for that matter, are a bit of an unknown. Still, it’s been a strong year for the American, and he’s shown some newly developed explosiveness that could make the difference in this race that does offer bonus seconds at the stage finishes. Form isn’t a question for teammate Samuel Sanchez, who was 5th in Il Lombardia last week. His 6th overall finish in the Vuelta earlier this month would suggest that he still has plenty in the tank on the climbs, even at age 36, and he gives BMC another card to play here.

Last year’s winner Beñat Intxausti makes his return looking for a repeat. It’s always hard to judge form with Intxausti, who is so often tasked with riding for Nairo Quintana or Alejandro Valverde, but who does have some real achievements on his palmares; in addition to the 2013 victory here, he has been 2nd in Pais Vasco, 3rd in Pologne, and 8th in the Giro in his still relatively young career. If he is in good shape here, he should be able to contend for another win, though admittedly with just a bit less firepower at his disposal than he had in 2013 when Rui Costa was a teammate. Jesus Herrada, who has had a nice year, will hope to thrive as second in his stead.

Giant-Shimano’s Warren Barguil has looked strong the past several weeks, and his Vuelta Top 10 was a real achievement, especially against such strong competition. With no time trials and a probable mountain showdown for GC honors, the Tour of Beijing would seem to fit him nicely. The 22-year-old mixed it up with some of the best in the world in Spain and he’ll have a chance to pick up his first win of the season here.

It’s been a quiet year for Team Sky’s David Lopez, but the Spaniard took 3rd here last year and he does have a fair bit of uphill talent and the ability to get aggressive on the climbs. Teammate Phil Deignan should thrive on this parcours, and Dario Cataldo, who has put in several big rides this year, can’t be counted out; Sky has options in the race.

Form and motivation are a question mark for Rigoberto Uran, but the Colombian has plenty of uphill talent and a particularly speedy finishing kick in a fight for bonus seconds. If he’s in shape, he’ll be a top contender. Countryman Julian Arredondo of Trek Factory Racing is another star of the Giro who hasn’t had quite the same results late in the year, but he looked okay in Milano-Torino and could be the mix. Teammate Robert Kiserlovski has not landed any big results recently either, but if he can find some of his early season form, he could get involved in the General Classification battle.

Katusha’s Sergei Chernetckii, OGE’s Simon Yates, Esteban Chaves, and Pieter Weening, FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez, and Belkin’s Steven Kruijswijk are on the list of GC outsiders. AG2R sends Carlos Betancur, whose abilities are well-suited to a race likely to come down to one day of climbing, but who hasn’t shown any form since April; Rinaldo Nocentini was 6th here in 2012 and has looked very strong in his past few races, and could be the better bet.

The Stagehunters

Several potential sprint stages have drawn a number of quick men (especially young ones) to Beijing. Luka Mezgec and Sacha Modolo are probably the fastest sprinters on the startlist. Ben Swift put in a decent sprint at Worlds and should be in the mix. Youngster Caleb Ewan of OGE could get involved in the fast finishes, as could veteran Daryl Impey. Other likely sprint contenders are Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, and OPQS’s Nikolas Maes. Meanwhile, riders like Philippe Gilbert, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Adam Hansen, and Giovanni Visconti could be on the lookout for opportunities to get clear of the purer sprinters when the road gets a little more challenging.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Daniel Martin
Podium: Rui Costa, Warren Barguil
Other Top Contenders: Beñat Intxausti, Samuel Sanchez, Tejay van Garderen, Rigoberto Uran, Robert Kiserlovski, David Lopez, Julian Arredondo

That’s it for VeloHuman’s race previews in 2014. I hope you have enjoyed reading them! Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter, and stay tuned for more commentary and analysis during the offseason; the racing may stop, but VeloHuman won’t.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Leo Laporte.

October 9, 2014
Il Lombardia 2014 Preview

Worlds may be over, but the 2014 cycling season isn’t quite done yet. There are still two events on the WorldTour calendar, including the final Monument of the year, Il Lombardia (formerly the Giro di Lombardia, the Tour of Lombardy). It’s a race with a lot of history, and the parcours (though updated this year) always provides plenty of uphill challenges to make for an exciting day; in recent years, those challenges have proven ideal for climbing specialist Joaquim Rodriguez, who has won the previous two editions.

The Route

Still a scenic ride through the hilly Lombardy region of Italy, the “Race of the Falling Leaves” has a new route with new climbs to overcome this year. Instead of starting in Bergamo, Il Lombardia 2014 will finish there, setting out from Como and weaving alongside lakes and over several climbs before the line after a total of 254 kilometers. The first vertical challenge is the Madonna del Ghisallo, which, in previous editions, featured much later in the route. This year, it will be crested only 58 kilometers into the race, but it will still inject plenty of pain into the legs early in the day. Roughly 8.6 kilometers at around a 6.2% average grade, the climb is significantly harder than those general numbers would suggest due to its irregular nature. Things flatten out for a few kilometers in the middle of the ascent, but on both sides of this reprieve are stretches where the gradient jumps over 10%.

After the Madonna del Ghisallo, things ease off for a while as the road heads toward Bergamo, which the riders will pass through a little over 130 kilometers into the race before embarking on a long, wide loop that will take them over some challenging climbs on the way back to Bergamo for the finish. The tough stuff starts in earnest with the Colle Gallo (7.4 km at 6%) after about 157 kilometers, and from there it’s mostly up and down to the line. After a fast descent comes the hardest climb of the race, the Passo di Ganda, 9.2 kilometers at 7.3%. Crested about 65 kilometers from the finish, it’s certain to force some selection. A tricky descent follows, interrupted by a short but very steep climb to Bracca, and then another downhill stretch to the foot of the Berbenno climb, which is likely to be a major battleground. 5.5 kilometers at 5.3%, there are a few particularly steep stretches early on, maxing out at 10%. From the top, it’s less than 30 kilometers from the finish line. The peloton will take on a fast descent and then ride on relatively flat roads until the final climb of the day, the Bergamo Alta. It’s only a little over a kilometer to the top, but the average gradient is a demanding 7.9%, and once the climb is crested less than 4 km remain to the line, mostly downhill and with plenty of twists and turns along the way; the winner of the race will likely be one of the first few riders over the Bergamo Alta, as there isn’t much room to recover lost ground after the climb. The ensuing downhill gradient flattens out for the final 500 meters of the race, which could set up a reduced sprint to the line if a small group of riders are together in the lead.

As an autumn race, Il Lombardia is no stranger to difficult conditions. Purito’s two victories have both been rainy affairs, and there is again a chance of rain this year; with so many descents on the docket, wet roads would certainly shake up an already unpredictable race.

The Contenders

The Final Monument Classic of the season, Il Lombardia tends to draw most of the top specialists of the hilly one-day events looking to take one last big prize on the year; the 2014 edition of the race is no exception. Joaquim Rodriguez returns to Il Lombardia hoping to collect his third straight win. It won’t be easy. He has been on decent form in the second half of his season, but he wasn’t quite at the level he’d planned to be during the Vuelta and he did not make as much of an impact at Worlds as maybe he’d hoped. Still, he has been unstoppable in Lombardy in the past few seasons, landing three straight podium performances, and he put in a strong ride (to take 5th) in this week’s Milano-Torino. I’m not sure the new parcours suits him quite as well as past editions did, but Purito is motivated to get more out of this year than he has so far. Katusha has a lot of firepower in the race to support Rodriguez or to provide alternatives. Daniel Moreno was 6th in this race last year and is a particularly strong sprinter even on flat roads should he find himself in shootout late, and he showed good form in Milano-Torino, coming in 3rd. The winner of that race also happens to ride for Katusha: Giampaolo Caruso, always aggressive and having a strong year (he was 4th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege), will be another weapon in Il Lombardia, as will Alexandr Kolobnev. The team will need all hands on deck, given the startlist and a less Purito-friendly profile, to defend their title.

Alejandro Valverde was runner-up in 2013 and the alterations to the route should be just fine with him; he couldn’t stay with Rodriguez on the Villa Vergano climb last year, and he no longer has to worry about that this year. Valverde’s versatile skillset makes him a difficult opponent. He may have Grand Tour-winning climbing talent, but he also has an especially strong sprint, and that could be critical to victory here. Few riders likely to survive the entire day at the head of affairs are as quick at the finish as Valverde; expect to see his rivals do everything they can in an attempt to drop him before the final few kilometers (which will be a pretty tall order). They know that Valverde, coming off a podium performance at Worlds, is probably the top favorite for the race, even with Rodriguez here looking for a third straight win. Movistar also has Giovanni Visconti and several top climbers in attendance, among them, Beñat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre.

One rider who may have the top speed to challenge even Valverde in a reduced sprint finale is new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski. His daring escape from the peloton in the Ponferrada finale may be his most famous accomplishment so far in his career, but his finishing kick is very impressive in and of itself. If he can hold on over the tough climbs, he can contest the victory in a number of ways, whether that means launching another bold move or holding on for a group finish. The rainbow jersey isn’t the only threat on a loaded OPQS team: Rigoberto Uran is a two-time podium finisher in this race, Pieter Serry was an impressive 7th last year, and Wout Poels and Gianluca Brambilla have been particularly strong in 2014.

Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin has been 8th, 4th, and even 2nd in this race already in his career; the 2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner thrives in the hillier one-day races, and Il Lombardia definitely qualifies. Martin’s sprinting chops seem to have improved this year should a small group reach the line together, and he should again be one of the top contenders in the race. Ryder Hesjedal and Tom-Jelte Slagter will give Garmin-Sharp a strong, multi-facted attack plan.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador may not have the one-day resume to match his stage-racing palmares, but on a climber-friendly parcours, few are as dangerous. He will need to get clear of the faster finishers, but the abundance of ascents, especially the Berbenno climb (though not especially challenging by itself, it does have steep stretches and it comes near the end of a day full of ups and downs) will give him opportunities. Success in the Monument Classics has eluded Contador so far in his career but he’s had a brilliant year and looked to still be on strong form even in October with a 6th place in Milano-Torino. Teammate Oliver Zaugg was the surprise winner of this race in 2011, and he’s not having a bad year himself.

The back-to-back Giro di Lombardia victories of BMC’s Philippe Gilbert may seem like a lifetime ago now, but he should still be a threat on this parcours. Coming off a strong ride at Worlds, where he was really the only rider in the first chase group doing any work attempting to close down Michal Kwiatkowski and still landed 7th, Gilbert looks to be on good form. The short climb that closes out this race will be a nice potential launching pad for Gilbert; alternatively, he could rely on his strong sprint if he sticks with the lead group over the top. Samuel Sanchez, a four-time podium finisher here, can’t be overlooked either. 6th overall in this year’s hotly contested Vuelta is nothing to sneeze at, and his age probably hasn’t diminished his elite descending skills, which will come in handy here. Tejay van Garderen and Cadel Evans bring even more firepower for BMC.

Now former World Champion Rui Costa wasn’t able to make it into the Gerrans/Valverde move in Ponferrada, but he finished respectably with the group behind, and the form he showed in Montreal isn’t likely to have faded just yet. This is an excellent profile for Costa, who is particularly adept at breaking away from the pack on hillier days and capable in a reduced sprint as well, and he is highly motivated to pick up more victories this season.

AG2R may have explosive Carlos Betancur and Tour de France runner-up Jean-Christophe Peraud on the startlist, but Romain Bardet looks to be the team’s strongest option, having shown some surprising one-day racing chops this season (10th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 5th in Montreal). Il Lombardia suits him about as well as any classic on the calendar, and he’ll be among the most dangerous potential escapees on the late climbs. Rinaldo Nocentini, 2nd in Milano-Torino, is obviously on terrific form and could be in contention as well, as could Domenico Pozzovivo.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema has the uphill talent to get involved at the business end of the race, and an underrated finishing kick, especially after a lumpy day (he outsprinted Joaquim Rodriguez for 2nd in the Clasica de San Sebastian in August). With Wilco Kelderman, another very complete rider, Lars Petter Nordhaug, and Laurens Ten Dam as well, Belkin has options. Lotto-Belisol is another team with several different weapons here: Tony Gallopin will hope to stick with the premium climbing favorites over the harder ascents so that he can challenge for victory with a late escape or in a reduced sprint finish, while Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert are both excellent bets to get aggressive on the hills. Orica-GreenEdge, as might be expected in a race with this many hills, also has a stacked squad, with Michael Albasini, an excellent climber with a fast finish, probably the strongest option and Daryl Impey, Esteban Chaves, Pieter Weening, and Adam and Simon Yates all dangerous, too. Astana has elite uphill talent Fabio Aru, who may not have the classics experience, but who can attack on a climb better than almost anyone in the professional peloton; meanwhile, Enrico Gasparotto is an always-underrated contender in the hilly one-day races, and he was 5th in last year’s Tour of Lombardy. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot, Cannondale’s strong and on-form Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, and Damiano Caruso, Giant-Shumano’s Tom Dumoulin, Warren Barguil, and Simon Geschke, Bardiani’s Edoardo Zardini, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, Trek’s Frank Schleck (a decent 9th in Milano-Torino) and Julian Arredondo, and Caja Rural’s Luis Leon Sanchez are on the long list of outside contenders who will hope to be in the mix as well. Sky’s Ben Swift deserves the final mention; it seems highly unlikely that he’d survive to the finish, but he’s a more capable climber and one-day racer than most other sprinters, and this profile at least leaves the door open just a bit.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Michal Kwiatkowski
Other Top Contenders: Daniel Martin, Alberto Contador, Daniel Moreno, Philippe Gilbert, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis, and check back soon for the preview of the final race of the 2014 season, the Tour of Beijing, and more interviews and analysis!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Matthew Peoples.

October 3, 2014
World Championships 2014: Road Race Preview

The Ponferrada World Championships will come to a close with the Men’s Elite Road Race. Cycling’s biggest stars have been training and riding in tuneup races for some time now, but the weekend of the main event has arrived. With the rainbow jersey on the line and a parcours that should make for a wide open race, it looks set to be quite a showdown.

The Route

The Road Race takes place on an 18.2 kilometer circuit in and around Ponferrada, Spain. The peloton will complete 14 laps of the circuit, making for a total race distance of 254.8 kilometers.

Each lap involves a pair of climbs and also pair of tricky descents that, especially as the day nears its conclusion, are likely to see plenty of action from the more aggressive riders in the pack. First in the circuit is the Confederación climb, 5.2 kilometers at an average of 3.3%. Despite the low gradient, the ascent starts out with a few stretches that hit 8%. After the riders crest the climb, they will take on a very sharp descent. Then comes the Mirador climb, 1.1 kilometers at 5.5% but with two stretches (at the beginning of the climb and again near the top) of around 10%. Another descent follows, and the road doesn’t flatten out until there are less than 2 kilometers remaining before the finish line. The last few kilometers involve a few twists and turns, including a sharp right hander in the final 1000 meters.

There is a chance of rain in the forecast. If the conditions are poor, the technical downhills will get a lot more hectic, and what is already going to be a long day in the saddle will get a lot more uncomfortable.

The Contenders

A moderately challenging profile will become much more difficult as 14 laps are completed, but this is still a parcours that will appeal to those riders with a powerful kick. The Ponferrada circuit, much like a number of circuit races on the WorldTour calendar that have preceded it, has challenges to guarantee action before the finish while still allowing for a sprint as a likely outcome: the inclines never reach extreme gradients and the last kilometer is quite flat. Still, a lumpy journey of over 250 kilometers will greatly whittle down the pack, and a perfectly timed and determined escape attempt will have a chance at staying clear, and even if this does come down to a sprint, it will be a select group battling it out for the victory. As such, winning the rainbow jersey in 2014 will require decent climbing legs and the toughness to stay sharp after a long day in the saddle, and either the kick to outsprint the (likely somewhat reduced) peloton at the line, the power to get clear of the pack before the finish, or a blend of both, to stay with any late attackers and then outmatch them in a high-speed finale.

No other rider in attendance combines current form, a well-tailored skillset, and a powerful team quite as well as Simon Gerrans. He proved that he is in top shape by sweeping the Canadian GPs (his second victory, in Montreal, was particularly dominant), and with Milano-Sanremo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege on his career palmares, he is a proven contender in sprint finishes that follow difficult days in the saddle in even the biggest races. The climbs shouldn’t be a problem for the Australian, who also has the power to glue himself to any aggressive wheels should any late attacks look particularly dangerous. Holding out for the sprint has been his strategy in these sorts of races lately, but he is also an accomplished attacker himself. In any scenario, he is a threat, and he leads a very powerful squad. Teammate Michael Matthews is a deadly alternative, even faster in a sprint and also capable of handling a few climbs. Matthews, still just 24, does not have the same resume for the very long days (though he has thrived on the hillier profiles in his career, none of his big wins have come after this much distance) but he has shown remarkable versatility and shouldn’t be counted out given the likelihood of a sprint. With Cadel Evans, Rohan Dennis, Adam Hansen, and Heinrich Haussler also in attendance, the Australian squad is loaded for this World Championship Road Race.

As a reduced sprint does seem to be the most probable outcome, Peter Sagan is among the top favorites as well; no rider is as fast to the line after a hilly day as the 24-year-old Slovakian. When the Ponferrada Worlds circuit was revealed, Sagan was the first name that came to mind for many observers. However, form is a major question mark for the talented young rider, who has done little to prove himself in shape since his Tour de France. He has expressed his own doubts about his form in the media recently as well. It is that uncertainty that keeps him from being the top favorite. If he manages to marshal his ability by the time this race kicks off, however, or if this is all nothing more than a clever strategy to deflect attention from himself, Sagan will be very difficult to beat. It will be hard for anyone else who sprints as well as Peter Sagan to stick with the pack all the way through the 254.8 hilly kilometers to the line. He’s also a master escape artist, should the opportunity present itself to get away from the bunch. He leads a small team of only three riders, but this profile, which is less friendly to attackers than last year’s, somewhat downplays the importance of squadmates who might help chase down late moves.

Spain’s Alejandro Valverde will need for this to be a selective race if he wants a chance at taking the rainbow jersey, but several climber-oriented teams are here to help with that ambition. Valverde has a terrific kick and he should be in the mix if this comes down to a reduced sprint. In front of a Spanish crowd and aware that this may be his last chance at the World Championship, he’ll be highly motivated to perform. Daniel Moreno is another fast finisher for the home country, while Joaquim Rodriguez and Luis Leon Sanchez present yet more options to make this an aggressive event.

Poland’s Michal Kwiatkowski was among the Top 5 in all three of this year’s Ardennes Classics, showing his immense strength in the group finishes that come after long, bumpy days, but he’s also an elite solo artist and strong descender who could try to get away from the lead group in the final few kilometers if still contains a few of the purer sprinter types. An excellent Tour of Britain showed that he’s back on good form after a rough patch in the middle of the year. Strong seasons from a number of Polish riders guaranteed a large team for Poland in this race (which isn’t always the case), and that will boost Kwiatkowski’s chances.

Among the likeliest late escapees is Fabian Cancellara, who eschewed the Worlds ITT this year to focus solely on this opportunity to take the rainbow jersey. No rider on this startlist can get clear of a charging peloton quite like Spartacus, and a constantly improving finishing kick makes him all the more dangerous should he reach the line in a small group; he showed it when he won the 2014 Ronde in a high-speed four-man showdown. He was even 2nd in a bunch sprint finish in Milano-Sanremo this year, ahead of the likes of Mark Cavendish. After 250 kilometers, many riders will start to lose steam, but Cancellara is not as easily weakened by distance. That puts him among the very strongest favorites here, and while his best chance at winning seems to be an attempt at a late move, he’s a contender in any scenario. His descending abilities make him even more dangerous. Though only consisting of two other riders, his team has firepower: Michael Albasini has the climbing legs to make it over these inclines and a particularly impressive burst of speed at the end of a hilly parcours, making a very strong second.

Belgium has several cards to play for this circuit, and at least one of the squad’s many options should be in the mix for the podium. Greg Van Avermaet will almost certainly attempt to get clear alone or with a small group as the day nears its close, and with recent showings of good form, he is among the top favorites for victory at Worlds. He has had found it difficult so far in his career to turn near victories into actual wins on the biggest stages, but he has finished in the Top 7 in each his last four starts (with two victories), and should come into this race feeling confident. Former World Champions Philippe Gilbert and Tom Boonen haven’t shown quite the same strength recently as Van Avermaet, but both are specialists in selective one-day races. Sep Vanmarcke, though not as speedy at the line, is another strong rider after a tough day, and Jan Bakelants, Jelle Vanendert, and Tim Wellens are even further options.

Defending champion Rui Costa has a difficult task ahead of him. As an uphill specialist, Costa is not as well-suited to this parcours, which doesn’t have the gradients he’d prefer. Still, he’s a strong attacker with underrated punch, and he has a knack for being in the mix on a wide variety of profiles.

Rui Costa put in a strong performance against high-level competition in Montreal, his final WorldTour race in the rainbow jersey.

A repeat win won’t be easy, but Costa clearly has the form (he was runner-up in the GP Montreal) and plenty of motivation to prove that he has what it takes to continually contend for the rainbow jersey. Expect a strong performance from him.

France has a few strong options that seem to be flying a bit under the radar at the moment. Tony Gallopin has the skillset to thrive on the Ponferrada circuit: he is a quality sprinter (he charged to 3rd in the bunch finish in Montreal) and a particularly dangerous attacker on the hilly profiles. He took his two biggest career wins (San Sebastián in 2013 and a stage in the Tour de France) by soloing out of a small group and staying clear to the line. His versatility will allow him to be in the mix in several different race scenarios. Sylvain Chavanel is another rider who could feature in several different ways; he won in Plouay last month after escaping from a pack of sprinting hopefuls, and that may be exactly what’s on his mind here. Romain Bardet could also get involved, having shown some surprising ability in one-day races this year (in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and in Montreal). Nacer Bouhanni makes the start as well, hoping for a bigger bunch gallop. This circuit will greatly test his climbing legs, and he does not have much of a resume in races this long, but he showed improved uphill ability in the recent Vuelta, and it has increased his confidence in his ability to be involved in this sort of race. It would be a surprise if he held on all the way to the finish, but he’s among the fastest sprinters in this race, making him a favorite if he can hang on.

Perhaps a bit more likely to hang on for a potential sprint is Germany’s John Degenkolb, who has landed his biggest results by surviving difficult days to thrive in reduced sprints. His victories in Paris-Tours, the Vattenfall Cyclassics, and Gent-Wevelgem and most of his nine career Vuelta stage wins, as well as his runner-up performance in this year’s Paris-Roubaix, have come that way. His finishing kick has been stronger this year than it has ever been before, though he may have given up just a little bit of his uphill ability getting there; more worrisome for his chances, however, is his recent bout with illness. Degenkolb was recently hospitalized while fighting an infection that he picked up in the Vuelta, and that trip certainly wasn’t a welcome addition to his training schedule. If the form is there, he could contend for the victory, but it’s hard to say how strong he is right now. Andre Greipel makes the start as well, though he’s a long shot to make it to the finish; Simon Geschke, a specialist on the hilly days, may be a better bet to survive. Tony Martin is another elite rider who can’t be counted out when a profile offers opportunities for solo moves.

Alexander Kristoff will share John Degenkolb’s ambition of surviving the tough day for a sprint finish. He wasn’t much of a factor in Quebec or Montreal recently, but the Ponferrada circuit should be a bit less climber-oriented, and Kristoff also thrives on the very long days in the saddle, and the Worlds parcours always is a long one. He won’t have an easy time of holding out for a bunch finish, but it’s hard to imagine anyone beating him if he’s there. Edvald Boasson Hagen and Lars Petter Nordhaug are both strong alternatives on this profile.

Tom Dumoulin was a top performer in Canada, 2nd in Quebec and 6th in Montreal. He has carried top-notch form into Ponferrada, and it helped him reach the podium in the ITT championship, where he was not far behind Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins. Dumoulin would prefer a course more favorable to attackers, but he is an excellent solo artist who will have a better chance than most at pulling off a late strike, and he has an ever-improving finishing sprint to help him outgun a select group should it come to that.

Tom Dumoulin has had a very strong September, with podium performances in Quebec and in the World Championship ITT. His soloing ability makes him a threat in the Road Race.

Teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter is well-suited to this parcours, and will be another strong option. Garmin was riding for Ramunas Navardauskas in Canada, but Slagter was 11th in Quebec and 12th in Montreal, suggesting that the form is there right now. With versatile Bauke Mollema, Wout Poels, Wilco Kelderman, and Pieter Weening all making the start as well, the Dutch squad may not have any one rider among the top few favorites for the race, but there is a lot of firepower here for a strong outside bid at the rainbow stripes.

The aforementioned Ramunas Navardauskas makes for a quality dark horse contender in this race, with just the right blend of climbing legs, attacking ability, and finishing kick to be dangerous on this profile. Ireland’s Dan Martin leads a small but capable squad, and the winner of last year’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege has both the form (which he proved with his first Grand Tour Top 10 in the Vuelta) and the skillset to make a challenge here. The Italian squad seems to be rallying behind Tour de France winner Vincenzo Nibali, who will hope to make an escape on the late climbs and then hold out on the last descent and final flat stretch; it may seem strange to mention the Italian team this late in the preview, but it’s hard to see their climber-centric squad selection as anything other than odd on this parcours. Daniele Bennati and Sonny Colbrelli could feature in a reduced sprint, while Alessandro De Marchi and Giovanni Visconti will be alternative options for a solo move. Unsurprisingly, Colombia also has a squad that will push for a very selective race, though it’s hard to name any one rider as their best hope; when at their best, Julian Arredondo, Carlos Betancur, and Rigoberto Uran all have the skillsets for this parcours, but none of them came out of the Vuelta on a particularly positive note. Zdenek Stybar of the Czech Republic, Denmark’s Matti Breschel, South Africa’s Daryl Impey, Russia’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Great Britain’s Ben Swift and Geraint Thomas are others on the list of potential protagonists on this parcours.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Peter Sagan, Fabian Cancellara
Other Top Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff, Rui Costa

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of the battle for the rainbow jersey! And stay tuned for post-race analysis and, of course, the preview of the season’s final Monument Classic, Il Lombardia.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Sean Rowe and Dane Cash.

September 26, 2014
World Championships 2014: Individual Time Trial Preview

Most major time trials take place in the middle of stage races, when riders have already put a lot of mileage into their legs and may be facing more in the days that follow. The Worlds ITT, however, takes away those complicating factors and allows the chrono specialists to face a standalone challenge. The time trial is often known as the “race of truth,” and it’s hard to imagine a more honest indicator of talent against the clock than this yearly battle for the rainbow stripes.

The Route

47.1 kilometers in total, the men’s elite time trial parcours begins with a long stretch of mostly flat roads, on which the riders will be able to hit very high speeds. Then, around 15 kilometers before the finish line, the road kicks upward for the first of the day’s two main climbs. It’s an irregular ascent, but at no point is it overly challenging. The descent that follows, however, is a difficult one. At around the 40 kilometer mark the road kicks upward again for a shorter but steeper climb. Then comes a speedy descent and a flat final few kilometers.

The 2013 route was considerably longer (57.9 kilometers instead of 47.1), but this year’s edition does include a few uphill tests that, while not overly demanding, could make a difference in the day’s outcome.

The Contenders

Defending champion Tony Martin is the heavy favorite here. It would be a surprise if anyone were to take the victory ahead of the German, who is on the hunt for his fourth consecutive title. The late bumps shouldn’t trouble him too much, and he’s an expert bike handler for the downhill stretches on the route. He may be just a bit off his best form right now, but his Vuelta ITT victory was evidence enough that he is in good shape, and that may be all he needs. He was 46 seconds ahead of the runner-up in 2013, and has been dominant once again this year.

Martin’s biggest challenge is likely to come from the aforementioned 2013 runner-up, Bradley Wiggins. Wiggins has been enigmatic on the road this year; he occasionally flashed his brilliant ability (winning chronos in the Tour of California and the Tour of Britain, along with his own National Championship ITT), but on the whole he simply didn’t ride in all that many races in 2014. He appears to be riding well right now, and he should be able to handle the late climbs better than most of the time trialing specialists in Ponferrada. It is harder than ever to predict which races Bradley Wiggins is motivated to contest these days, but with a chance to make a statement in the twilight of his career on the road, I expect him to go full gas here.

Tom Dumoulin of the Netherlands racked up an amazing string of 2nd place finishes this year. He’s one of the world’s best in the time trial, but he unfortuantely had a great deal of scheduling overlap with the rainbow jersey wearer in 2014, and that led to countless runner-up rides. Still, he is in good shape right now and he will be eager for one last shot at victory over Tony Martin. This a nice enough parcours for Dumoulin, who is a capable climber. He has an excellent opportunity to get onto the podium, especially with last year’s 3rd place finisher Fabian Cancellara skipping the Worlds ITT this year.

Vasil Kiryienka has had some excellent results late this season and he can handle this profile. He may spend most of his time playing second fiddle to Sky’s GC stars, but he’ll be a dangerous outsider here. Adriano Malori of Italy is a massive time trial talent on sharp form, but the final two climbs will make it difficult for him to challenge for victory. Still, expect a strong performance. Rohan Dennis took some time to round into form during the Vuelta but he seems to be getting there now, and this is a nice parcours for him. Tobias Ludviggson is a rider whose talent exceeds his results this season; he has had trouble avoiding misfortune (rain and crashes, specifically) in many of his chronos in 2014, but if he can stay out of trouble he has a lot of power.

Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Alex Dowsett, Kristof Vandewalle, Jesse Sergent, Sylvain Chavanel, Jonathan Castroviejo, and Jan Barta are others on the list of fringe contenders who will hope to be in the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Tony Martin
Podium: Bradley Wiggins, Tom Dumoulin
Other Top Contenders: Vasil Kiryienka, Tobias Ludviggson, Adriano Malori, Rohan Dennis, Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Kristof Vandewalle

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis during the race, and stay tuned for the Worlds Road Race preview, coming very soon!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Andrew Sides.

September 23, 2014
World Championships 2014: Team Time Trial Preview

The Road World Championships get underway with the team time trial. If recent editions are any indication, the TTT should be a thrilling way to kick off a big week of cycling: the margin of victory for the men’s TTT in 2012 was only 3 seconds, and in 2013 things were even closer: Omega Pharma – Quick-Step beat out Orica-GreenEdge by just 1 second for the title.

The Route

The 2014 parcours is a bit more demanding than the profile faced by the TTT squads in 2013. 57.1 kilometers in length, it is mostly flat, but it does have a few bumps along the way. A string of ups and downs lead into the short but steep Alto Pieros at around the halfway point, and a high-speed downhill follows. With roughly 15 kilometers to go there is another uphill drag that starts at a low gradient and then kicks up a bit towards the end of the ascent crested with roughly 3 kilometers to go, after which comes a fast descent and then a flat finish.

Both the first and the final few kilometers are beset with twists, turns, and roundabouts, but most of the long journey in between is on wider roads without too many technicalities, which will allow the bigger engines to really get going in the middle of the route.

The Contenders

Last year’s two top finishers figure to feature prominently again. OPQS comes in as a slight favorite, though the team makeup has changed considerably since they last made a run at Worlds. Tony Martin still leads the way with a very talented Michal Kwiatkowski also returning. The impressive Kristof Vandewalle (now riding for Trek) is among those who won’t make a repeat bid for OPQS, but new additions like Niki Terpstra should help pick up the slack. Martin and Kwiatkowski will handle the scattered climbs and the technical stretches better than most time trial specialists in attendance, boosting the team’s chances. Orica-GreenEdge should put up a serious fight, however. Veteran Svein Tuft has continued to lead the OGE TTT squad to successes this year (they won the opening team time trial in the Giro d’Italia) and younger talents like Michael Hepburn and fast-rising Damien Howson make for a very solid group of specialists. They may not have any individual riders who currently qualify as stars in the time trial right now, but the team discipline is about more than raw power, and Orica-GreenEdge takes the TTT very seriously. They will have one of the most cohesive units on the course.

Trek should put in a strong challenge, with Fabian Cancellara, the aforementioned Kristof Vandewalle, and a sharp Jesse Sergent making the start. Their Vuelta performance was underwhelming, but Spartacus should be in much better form with the World Championship Road Race rapidly approaching.

BMC is without Taylor Phinney, but newcomer Rohan Dennis and a very strong Silvan Diller should complement Tejay van Garderen and company nicely. I think they’re more likely to deliver a performance along the lines of their Giro TTT (where they were 3rd) than their Vuelta TTT (where they only managed 9th).

Team Sky has underperformed in just about every major TTT they’ve undertaken in 2014, but the collection of talents they bring to Ponferrada can’t be ignored. With Bradley Wiggins leading and Geraint Thomas, Dario Cataldo, and an in-form Vasil Kiryienka also on the team, Sky will have a fighting chance at victory. They were 3rd in 2013, the only team within half a minute of the two leaders.

Movistar, with Ion Izagirre, Adriano Malori, and Alex Dowsett, should be in the mix. Astana hasn’t landed many big team time trial results in 2014, but they have a strong group of chrono specialists here. Giant-Shimano could surprise, with several very talented young time trialists in their unit, among them Tom Dumoulin, Chad Haga, and Tobias Ludviggson.

VeloHuman Top 3 Favorites

Winner: Omega Pharma – Quick-Step
Podium: Orica-GreenEdge, Trek Factory Racing

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live race analysis, and stay tuned for previews of the ITT and Road Race World Championships.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Sean Rowe.

September 20, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Santiago de Compostela › Santiago de Compostela. El Final del Camino – 9.7 km

The Vuelta’s final stage is here! After Alberto Contador’s decisive mountain victory in the penultimate day of the race, the short individual time trial up next won’t have much of an impact on the General Classification, but stage honors are still on offer, and there are plenty of riders who will like their chances to close out the last Grand Tour of the year with a win.

The 9.7 kilometer route begins with a flat section and then a short downhill stretch, followed by a long section of slight ups and and downs (it averages more up than down) that evens out with about 3 kilometers to go. Then comes a quick descent and then the flattish (there is a very, very minor gradient) final 1.5 kilometers. Without much in the way of topography, and at less than 10 kilometers, it’s going to be an extremely fast stage. It may rain, and it could be a bit windy, both factors that could definitely shake things up in a chrono like this.

The Stage 21 profile suits the real specialists in the time trialing discipline, but a 9.7 kilometer ITT after three weeks of tough racing is different from a short ITT to start a Grand Tour. Everyone will be feeling the effects of the long jorney through Spain. That could make for some interesting results in the Vuelta’s last day.

One star time trialist who should still be feeling good even after all the challenging climbs of the race is Sky’s Chris Froome. Barring a bad crash by Contador, Froome won’t have any chance of taking enough time back from the race leader to move up from 2nd place, but he’ll still want to put in a big ride and maybe come away from the race with a stage win. He has looked stellar in the past few days (a significant improvement over the way he looked in the Vuelta’s first time trial), and this will be a nice chance to end the Vuelta on a high note. He won a similar short chrono back in June in the Dauphine. Starting late in the day, he’ll be able to gauge his efforts against those who have gone before, and he’ll also probably face a bit less wind.

Movistar’s Adriano Malori was underwhelming in the Vuelta’s first race against the clock, but this short, flat test suits him perfectly. He took his first WorldTour win in Tirreno-Adriatico back in March on a very similar profile, beating out Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara in the process. He should contend for the win here.

Trek’s Kristof Vandewalle is another chrono specialist who should be in the mix. He’s been hard to beat against the clock recently. He took a win over Malori in the closing time trial stage of the Tour de Pologne last month. Teammate Jesse Sergeant, very strong in flat ITTs, will be another top contender on Stage 21.

Garmin-Sharp’s Rohan Dennis hasn’t had as much of an impact on this Vuelta as maybe he would have hoped coming in, but he’s an elite time trialist who will love this chance to land a result before the race is over.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador can’t be ruled out, having come in a close 2nd to Froome in the short ITT that opened the Dauphine. Despite his comfortable hold on the red jersey, he’s not one to pass up a chance at victory.

Michael Matthews could surprise some people: he’s quite effective against the clock in a shorter chorno. Maciej Bodnar, Daniele Bennati, Alexey Lutsenko, Manuel Quinziato, Jonathan Castroviejo, Tobias Ludvigsson, Cameron Meyer, and Patrick Gretsch are others who could contend for stage honors here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Adriano Malori | 3. Kristof Vandewalle

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Vuelta a España. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading! Stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VH Facebook page, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s preview of the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal, the last WorldTour race before the World Championships in Spain. VH will of course be previewing the main events of Worlds as well, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 13, 2014