Tag: Picks

Stage 10: Lugones › Lagos de Covadonga – 188.7km

The last stage before the first rest day should be a good one. The first 140km will be relatively calm, but the finale is set to deliver GC action. The Cat. 1 Alto del Mirador del Fito will be a nice appetizer, 6.2km at 7.8%, but it’s the special-category Lagos de Covadonga climb that will really put the hurt on, nearly twice as long as the Mirador at 12.2km but almost as steep 7.2%.

It’s an irregular climb with plenty of extra steep stretches to motivate attacks, too, with none more challenging than the last few hundred meters, where the road kicks up over 17%. That won’t be a pleasant way to close out 10 straight days of racing.

The breakers will have a shot Monday, especially what with the way the peloton has given them so much breathing room up to this point in the race. However, this being a great chance for the overall contenders to pick up chunks of time on their rivals, and with a rest day on the horizon, it seems likely they’ll be far more interested in a making the race hard than they were in Stage 9.

After a quiet first week, Nairo Quintana made a loud statement in Stage 8. Until he shows weakness, it’s hard to pick against him on this climb as the race favorite. His teammate Alejandro Valverde might get involved too, though he didn’t looked quite as sharp in Stage 8 and this climb doesn’t suit him as much as the shorter challenges in the first week.

Chris Froome and Alberto Contador figure to be Quintana’s main rivals. Their big engines are much better tailored to the Covadonga climb than anything we’ve seen so far in the race. I’d probably rate Froome’s chances as slightly better than Contador’s because, as I say at every opportunity, he’s got a higher ceiling on a good day—but it’s close. Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, Darwin Atapuma, and Simon Yates are others to watch out of the main bunch, though it’s hard to see any of them matching the heavyweights on this climb.

From the breakaway, keep an eye on José Goncalves, Rubén Fernandez, Lilian Calmejane, Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, and Robert Gesink.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador

Stage 9: Cistierna › Oviedo – 164.5km

Sunday’s stage is a tricky one to predict, with an up-and-down parcours that favors aggressive riding. The two Cat. 2s and three Cat. 3s are enough to favor the stronger climbers, though it’s hard to say whether it’ll be the GC men or the stagehunters leading the way at the line.

The final ascent of the Alto del Naranco, 5.7km at 6.1%, will likely draw some GC action, but none of the climbs are long or steep enough to motivate a serious chase in the peloton.

I think the breakers have a nice chance to take the victory, though it’s hard to name any one potential long-range protagonist who seems as likely to win as the one or two standout names who have a shot in the bunch.

Luis León Sánchez has been very active so far in this Vuelta en route to a pair of top 5 finishes, and this stage suits his talents well. Astana should be all in for stage wins, which means Sánchez should be looking for opportunities to either get into the early, or a late move on the final climbs.

José Goncalves has been active as well. I think it’s only a matter of time before he makes it into the right escape. He’s got a nice punchy finish that will come in handy if he’s near the front at the end of the day.

Simon Clarke has made his presence known early on in the race and I expect him to continue to fight for any results he can—Cannondale needs them as the season is nearing its close. Jan Bakelants, Thomas De Gendt, Alexandre Geniez, Fabio Felline, and Philippe Gilbert are others to watch from afar.

Gianluca Brambilla is a strong candidate for stage success who falls somewhere near the dividing line between the GC men and the stagehunters. He’s too close on GC to be ignored in an early breakaway, but he has the potential to get into a long-range move if one gets clear within the last 50km or so.

Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favorite for a GC-oriented battle. The climb isn’t hard enough to blow the red jersey group apart, and Valverde’s sprint makes him deadly. His teammate Daniel Moreno and countryman Samuel Sánchez also have potential in a punchy finish, as does Simon Yates. Nairo Quintana, Chris Froome, and Esteban Chaves are all worth keeping an eye on as well, of course, but I’d be surprised to see any of them taking the stage victory on this final climb.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Luis León Sánchez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Gianluca Brambilla

Stage 8: Villalpando › La Camperona – 181.5km

Finally, the Vuelta serves up a real mountain stage. Unfortunately, the first 170 kilometers are featureless, with the Cat. 1 finale the only climb on the menu.

In other words, don’t expect much action until the final half hour of the day. At least the Alto de la Camperona is an interesting climb. Overall, it’s 8.5km at 7.4%, but the difficulty really ratchets up after 3.5km. There’s a 25% section leading into the fourth kilometer of the ascent, followed by a brief flat stretch, and then it’s about 3.5km of mostly double digit gradients all the way to the top, with several sections over 20%.

Stage 8 will be a crucial GC day for sure, though whether the stage win comes down the red jersey hopefuls or the breakers is harder to say. All things considered I’d give the GC men a slight advantage on the first real GC day of the race, but it’ll be close.

If it is the overall contenders leading the way at the finish, there are four names I see as worthy of favorite status: Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde, Esteban Chaves, and Nairo Quintana—in that order.

Froome has a tendency to look for opportunities to get ahead early, and this certainly is one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall out of the GC group somewhere midway up the climb and then storm back to the lead near the top. In peak form, he’s head and shoulders above the competition, and even in Vuelta form he’s dangerous.

So is Alejandro Valverde, who has been winning the early stages of the battle among the top contenders so far in the race. This stage will be a real test of form, but he’s shown plenty up to this point, enough that I favor him over Quintana among the Movistar riders. Quintana has the talent, but he has been quiet thus far in the Vuelta. Esteban Chaves has been the more impressive Colombian through the first week.

Alberto Contador is obviously one to watch as well, but the nasty fall he took in Stage 7 makes him a bit less likely as a favorite in my eyes. Darwin Atapuma, Andrew Talansky, Samuel Sánchez, Leopold König, and Simon Yates are all candidates for success as well, though it’d be a surprise if they can outmuscle the likes of Froome and Valverde.

Among the potential long-range protagonists, José Goncalves, Thomas De Gendt, Alexandre Geniez, Rubén Fernández, and Igor Anton all stand out, though it’s anyone’s guess who actually makes it up the road on a stage like this.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Esteban Chaves