Stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne › La Toussuire – 138km
The Tour de France is now halfway through its Alpine stretch and the climbs aren’t getting any easier on Stage 19.
Just like Stage 18, Stage 19 kicks off with climbing right from the gun. The Cat. 1 Col de Chaussy is 15.4km long at 6.3%, quite a challenge to take on in the first hour of the day. From the top it’s a long descent into a long flat section of a little over 25km, which ends at the foot of the massive Col de la Croix de Fer.
22.4km at 6.9%, the Croix de Fer is a huge challenge to overcome, with a particularly steep midsection that jumps into double digits for a little while.
After the summit comes a descent into the short, Cat. 2 Col du Mollard (5.7km at 6.8%). From there it’s a a long downhill that runs right into the foot of the La Toussuire climb, the final ascent of the day. 18km at 6.1%, it’s pretty challenging as Cat. 1 climbs go. The steepest part as at the very beginning, with things easing off slightly near the finish line.
Despite the hard climbs on the profile, Stage 19 is actually quite short, so expect a day of high-speed racing.
Breakaways have enjoyed their own opportunities to fight for stage victories two days in a row now, and the Stage 19 profile is another that will look appealing to the aggressive types, with the hardest climb of the day so far from the finish and plenty of testy descending in between its summit and the finish. On the other hand, the long final climb will require the breakaway riders to have a hefty advantage to stay clear, and this is the penultimate opportunity for the GC men to try to make something happen on the overall leaderboard, which could spur some into action. Even if Movistar isn’t going to be all that aggressive, we’ve seen the fringe GC contenders getting active in the mountains, which has the domino effect of spurring the outside GC contenders to go on the chase, with the top GC contenders then getting into gear to follow.
What’s more, the Stage 18 breakaway included almost all of the top potential Alpine breakaway contenders, which might leave many of them a bit tired. This will be another big day for the KOM contenders, which could inspire some of those who were on the move on Stage 18 to take up the march again on Stage 19, but it’s hard to say who will be that interested in putting themselves through the hell of a real stage victory bid in the breakaway once again.
If a strong group of top-notch climbers gets clear, they’ll have a chance at winning this from afar, but otherwise, the GC men could have their day on Stage 19.
Nairo Quintana has not been able to drop Chris Froome so far in this Tour de France, but with the dangerous 1-2 punch of Alejandro Valverde, he has the chance to put some serious pressure on the race leader in the Alps. It likely won’t make a difference on the GC unless Froome crashes or gets sick (which could happen), but a nabbing a stage while he’s hunting for seconds on the overall leaderboard seems like a real possibility. In 2013, Froome allowed Quintana to get up the road in the final week to take back a little bit of time, and if that formula holds here, Quintana could skip clear on the last climb of the day to take a stage victory. Alejandro Valverde, sitting in 3rd, seems a bit less likely to launch a suicide attack since he’s never actually landed a podium performance in the Tour in his long career, but his powerful finishing kick makes him a threat if things are still together at the top of the final climb.
If Froome decides that he wants a stage victory, he will be very difficult to stop, as he’s been unbeatable on the climbs so far in this Tour de France; as such, he can never be counted out. However, with just two more mountain stages left in the race, Froome could decide to play this rather conservatively.
Alberto Contador has tried to go on the move in the Alps already, but he can’t quite get any separation. The legs just haven’t been there. Still, if Froome focuses all his attention on Movistar, the Giro-winner could steal a march on the other GC favorites. The same is true for Vincenzo Nibali, though the Italian isn’t at his best.
Robert Gesink’s strong form, fast finish, and non-threatening position a bit further down the leaderboard make him a nice candidate to try to make something happen out of the GC group on the final climb. The same is true for Bauke Mollema, though the form hasn’t quite been as strong for Mollema in this Tour de France.
If the early breakaway stays clear, it will likely include plenty of familiar long-range attackers. Jakob Fuglsang has now missed out on two stage wins from the breakaway, and the most recent one will likely have him fired up for another shot. A collision with a race moto took Fuglsang down on the hardest climb of Stage 18, and chasing back onto the breakaway group left him burnt out for the final battle for the stage victory. It also kept him from collecting as many points in the KOM competition, leaving him sitting 3rd in that classification. Fuglsang will likely try very hard to get into the break on one or both of the next two stages in the hunt for KOM points and a stage victory, and the long, challenging climbs of Stage 19 suit him very well.
Joaquim Rodríguez is currently tied with Romain Bardet (just ahead of Fuglsang) on KOM points and will have to get up the road again if he wants to win the competition. He won the early battles for points on Stage 18 but then faded on the Col du Glandon. However, Rodríguez has said that he missed a feed before taking on the climb and then suffered a hunger knock, which shouldn’t hold him back on Stage 19. Plus, he won’t have nearly the effort in his legs that many of his breakaway rivals continued to put in all the way to line. He’s definitely a candidate for success.
So is Bardet, though the young Frenchman may be a bit more conservative in his racing (and he may be more of a marked man) now that he’s holding on to a Top 10 on GC. A monumental effort to win Stage 19 with a solo attack from over 40km out won’t help either. He’s definitely a threat and will be a favorite if he can get into the break, but back-to-back stage wins from the break in the Alps is an extremely challenging feat.
Unlike the aforementioned trio, Pierre Rolland probably won’t expend energy trying to pick up KOM points if he gets into the Stage 19 breakaway. He’s got to be a bit tired after a tough Stage 19, but like Fuglsang he’ll be motivated by the missed opportunity and will likely be very interested in getting on the move in the penultimate mountain stage of the 2015 Tour.
Thibaut Pinot, Tanel Kangert, Serge Pauwels, Ryder Hesjedal, Andrew Talansky, Samuel Sánchez, Rafal Majka, Winner Anacona, Adam Yates, and Rafael Valls and Rigoberto Urán (two of the few likely breakaway hopefuls who didn’t spend much energy on Stage 18) are other potential candidates for long-range success on Stage 19.
VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Jakob Fuglsang | 3. Pierre Rolland
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 19.
-Dane Cash
