All-Rounder Roundup
Most observers seem to consider this Tour as a showdown between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. For every news article fawning over Chris Froome’s dominance in basically every race he’s entered this year, there is a commentator shaking his head and reminding us that Contador is Contador, and on cycling’s biggest stage, he’ll make everyone forget the minor races he didn’t care to win. And that really is the storyline: Froome has podiumed in Grand Tours in the past, at 28 he’s just hitting his prime, and this year he has been unstoppable; Contador, on the other hand, hasn’t been the superstar he is expected to be just yet this year… but he is the same Contador who has won all three Grand Tours, including the Vuelta in 2012.
His underwhelming results so far this year make Contador very difficult to judge. There is no question that Froome and the Sky locomotive are ready to party come Saturday. Contador has a very powerful team to back him up (Roman Kreuziger took Amstel Gold earlier this year and was very strong in the Tour de Suisse, finishing on the podium), and if he shows the same form he has shown in the past, it could go down to the wire, with Froome taking the lead early thanks to a pair of time trials, and Contador fighting to take back seconds in a brutal final week in the mountains.
But as dominant as Contador was in the past, I just don’t see the evidence that he still has that same engine he once had. It’s not like he’s been bad so far this year; he’s just been okay. Sure, he could peak right on time, and could very well win the race, but from what we’ve seen so far, Froome is the rightful favorite heading into Corsica… and while I wouldn’t be surprised if Contador wins the yellow, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Contador fall to third behind Froome’s friend Richie Porte. Like Froome, Porte has been on fire this year, winning Paris-Nice and getting onto the podium in Pais Vasco and the Critérium du Dauphiné. His best Grand Tour result to date? 7th in the 2010 Giro. But this looks like it could be the year where he makes it onto a Grand Tour podium; given the team leader role in a few big stage races, he showed quite a talent against the clock, but also seemed more comfortable than ever climbing up the steepest cols with the rest of the GC contenders. As Froome’s lieutenant in the Critérium du Dauphiné, he seemed quite capable of performing double duty as a domestique and a GC man in his own right, and with questions dogging Contador’s performance heading into the Tour, it’s hard to see past Sky’s 1-2 killer punch. It seemed to work out well for them last year…
There are quite a few other big names to cover, some of whom I think will do well, others who I think might have trouble. Alejandro Valverde is one I expect to perform. He has Nairo Quintana and Rui Costa as lieutenants… not a bad setup. With a team like that and a resume of eight Grand Tour top 10s (including a Vuelta win in 2009), he’s got the credentials. Like Contador, he sat out for two years thanks to a doping ban, and then returned with a strong Vuelta performance, where he took second to Alberto, and also took the points jersey. He showed good form all spring, too, getting on the podium at Liege and Amstel Gold. He wasn’t great at the Critérium du Dauphiné, but he was better than Contador, and much better than another big name I also think can push for a top 10 or even a top 5 at the Tour, Joaquim Rodriguez, who was a disappointing 16th at the Dolphin. Perhaps it was only a hiccup; he took second behind Daniel Martin at both Liege and Cataluyna, and looked fine at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he won a stage and took 5th. And if there has ever been a Tour to suit the climbing legend who doesn’t TT particularly well, this one is it.
On the flip side is 2011 winner Cadel Evans, who comes to the Tour with multiple storylines. After a grueling Giro, can he continue to perform at a high level in a Grand Tour just a month later? And what about Tejay van Garderen, who made Evans look old and tired last Tour? Many observers bet against Evans at the Giro this year after his 7th place in the 2012 Tour de France, and he managed to make it onto the podium. Shouldn’t I be wary of doubting him at the Tour then? Maybe, but there are reasons aplenty. First, giving the Giro your all and then turning around and putting in a star performance at the Tour de France just doens’t really happen anymore. Evans is 36, not exactly an age that inspires confidence in his endurance. Moreover, he seemed to fade a little towards the end of the Giro, and though he podiumed, both Bradley Wiggins and Ryder Hesjedal abandoned. So I just don’t see it happening for Cadel this Tour.
His teammate Tejay van Garderen is another story. The 25 year old American took 5th overall and the young rider classification last year. He was 4th at Paris-Nice this year, and he finally won a pro race for the first time at the Tour of California, where he looked worlds ahead of the competition. If the story ended there, I’d say van Garderen was a strong choice for the top 5. I still think he’s a strong choice, but unfortunately 1) BMC seems to be backing Evans again, and 2) van Garderen was only so-so at the Tour de Suisse, and didn’t inspire much confidence in what is considered a strong suit for him, time trialing. I think BMC will give over to van Garderen earlier this year than they did last year, and I think his form is probably fine (7th at the Suisse still isn’t anything to sneeze at), so I’m tipping him as another strong contender for the top 5 again this year.
Team Belkin (formerly Blanco) apparently got tired of waiting for Robert Gesink to live up to his potential, and named Bauke Mollema team leader for the Tour de France. Mollema is coming off a strong Tour de Suisse (second overall and a stage win), and with a good team of GC-focused riders behind him, I think he’ll be a strong performer. His 2012 was rather disappointing, but he has had a nice year so far.
Garmin-Sharp brings another strong team to the Tour this year, with a three-pronged attack of Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, and Andrew Talansky at the helm and some strong veterans in support roles. Hesjedal failed to defend his 2012 Giro win this year, abandoning the race, and then he crashed out of the Tour de Suisse. He’s the only member of Garmin’s big three to even podium in a Grand Tour, but it’s hard to see past his lacking Palmares so far in 2013. Instead, I think Liège–Bastogne–Liège winner Dan Martin could be the best finisher of the three (and could definitely nab a stage win or two), in the midst of the best year of his racing life. In addition to his Monument win this year, Martin has podium finish in another Monument (Lombardia), a small collection of stage race overall wins, and a Vuelta stage to his name across his young career, but this will be the first time he’s taken on a Grand Tour in this sort of position, with GC aspirations. This year’s Tour should suit his climbing capabilities, but he’ll have to limit his losses on Stage 11. Time will tell. Andrew Talansky, riding in his first Tour de France, could certainly create some fireworks as well, though I think it may be a little early to tip him as a strong challenger for the overall.
I don’t see another top 5 overall for Jurgen Van Den Broeck. Lotto-Belisol’s lineup doesn’t strike fear in anyone’s heart in the way that Sky, Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff do, and I think there a a few more hard-changing up-and-comers who could muscle him out of the top of hte leaderboard this year. It is hard to judge his form, as he has taken the “focus solely on the Tour” approach this year, with no WorldTour podium finishes to speak of so far.
Nairo Quintana is a hot name heading into the Tour, fresh off an impressive Pais Vasco win (he also took a stage and the Points classification), and we know he certainly has the talent. In the Basque Country, he followed several days of dominant climbing with a surprising second place in the final day’s time trial, behind only Tony Martin, greatest TTer alive, and ahead of Porte and Contador. However, Quintana hasn’t raced since April (he’s been training back home) and he’ll at least start out riding for Valverde. I don’t know that the time is right to pick Quintana as a guy to mount a serious GC challenge, though it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if he did.
This year’s parcours certainly suits another up-and-coming star, France’s Thibaut Pinot, who managed a 10th place and a stage win at last year’s Tour. He won’t have the dark horse’s advantage this year, he needs to improve against the clock, and he doesn’t have the team support of some of the other star contenders, but I could see another performance at the fringes of the top 10. He looked pretty good in the Tour de Suisse, managing a decent 4th.
The Froome vs. Contador battle at the top, and the battle of names like Martin, Pinot, Quintana, and van Garderen vs. Valverde, Rodriguez, and Evans as challengers fills this Tour with storylines of old guard vs. up-and-comers. We should be in for some thrills as the untested set out to prove they have what it takes against the many decorated veterans in the peloton. I think the up-and-comers will have some success: I see Froome taking the overall win and a number of younger riders getting into the top 10 at the expense of some of the more well-known veterans.
Stagehunters
This year’s battle for green may be the biggest in years. Two years ago, the rules for the points classification were adjusted to favor the pure sprinters, and Mark Cavendish summarily won his first green in. Then, in 2012, an up-and-coming Slovakian rider named Peter Sagan set out on his first Tour de France journey, and proceeded to clean up the points classification, winning three stages and placing highly in a boatload more. This year’s Tour should have enough flat stages to make things very interesting, with plenty of opportunities for Cavendish to remain in the bunch until the final few hundred meters, at which point there is no one on Earth who is faster. He could win five or even six stages, if everything goes according to plan, and OPQS finally seems to have their leadout down, which bodes well for his chances. He certainly hasn’t seen his form decline since last year’s Tour, winning the points classification in May’s Giro d’Italia. Sagan will need to be on his game to nab as many hilly stages as he can, while remaining in contention on the pancake style stages–hanging on over the climbs in Corsica could be crucial, and making up extra points in intermediate sprints will be vital as well. He’ll also need to hope breakaways don’t rob him of stage wins in the later Medium Mountain stages where he might otherwise be capable of leading a group across the line. If it comes down to Cavendish vs. Sagan for green, and I think it will, I’d have to pick Sagan by a very small margin; it will probably be much closer than last year.
Outside of those two favorites, Andre the Gorilla Greipel looks like Cavendish’s main rival on the flat sprints, but don’t count out Marcel Kittel, who has taken wins in Schelderprijs and in stages of a number of smaller stage races this year, even beating Cavendish and Greipel on occassion. The 25 year old comes to the Tour with a team totally dedicated to winning stages, and Kittel is their man on the flats. He’s probably a bit too limited and too third-fiddle to challenge for the green jersey, but he could certainly succeed in his hunt for a stage or two.
Argos-Shimano’s other sprinter, John Degenkolb, is tough to judge going into the race. He took an awesome stage win in the Giro, but other than that, he’s achieved essentially zilch this year, after his unbelievable success last year, highlighted by five wins in the Vuelta. Argos will be behind him on any stage that Kittel can’t make it over the mountains, but he’ll want to prove that he has form as quickly as possible, so that his team doesn’t start to wonder if they should be working harder to get Kittel over the bumps.
Other sprinters-who-can-climb include Matt Goss, Alexander Kristoff, and Edvald Boasson Hagen, in descending order of how much their teams care about their own stage-winning aspirations. Goss has GreenEdge’s full support as often as he can hang on over the bumps, but he’s been disappointing this year. I think he’s likely to rack up a bunch of points by taking minor placings in sprints, but he probably can’t beat Cav/Greipel/Kittel in a flat finish and he’ll be contending with Peter Sagan for the hillier stages. At the beginning of his still young career, it was thought that Goss had one of the best post-climb sprints in the sport, so we know that he was at least at one time capable of giving the best of the best a run for their money, but this year’s Tour is not one with much room for error. Alexander Kristoff is an exciting young rider who could also challenge Sagan for hillier stages, coming in ahead of Cannondale’s star on two sprint finishes in the Tour de Suisse (one of which he won). Eddy Boss is obviously one of the peloton’s most talented riders, but he won’t have nearly the support of many of these other names: Cannondale, OPQS, Argos-Shimano, and Orica-GreenEdge are at the Tour 100% focused on stage wins for their fast men, but EBH will be looking for his opportunities while playing domestique for Froome and Porte. Like Goss, he probably can’t pip any of the pure sprinters to the line, so he’ll have to race smart like he did at the Dauphiné (where he laid low for two stages and then showed off his superior handling skills on a hilly third stage, turning a sharp final corner before gunning it to the line) and maybe he can nab a Medium Mountain win if all goes according to plan.
And of course, keep an eye out for the French riders, especially those sporting the colors of Cofidis, Europcar, and Sojasun, who will look for chances to make a statement at every opportunity. Breakaways and reduced sprints could see a lot of action from guys with dreams of stage glory in their home Grand Tour. Thomas Voeckler will certainly be most prominent of those hoping for breakaway wins (he will likely shoot for the polka dots again, as well), and he will face stiff competition from fellow countrymen and Orica GreenEdge’s Michael Albasini, Simon Clarke and Simon Gerrans, all of whom are capable of going for long distance wins in the hills.
NOTE: I will be doing several “Where We Stand” updates throughout the Tour which will include stage picks for the upcoming days, including one on Day 0, tomorrow. More analysis to come!
Predictions
General Classification (Yellow Jersey)
Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Richie Porte
Other Strong Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema, Dan Martin, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez
Points Classification (Green Jersey)
Winner: Peter Sagan
Stages
Stage 1: Porto-Vecchio > Bastia | 213km | Flat
Stage 2: Bastia > Ajaccio | 156km | Medium Mountains
Stage 3: Ajaccio > Calvi | 145.5km | Medium Mountains
Stage 4: Nice > Nice | 25km | TTT
Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-Mer > Marseille | 228.5 | Flat
Stage 6: Aix-en-Provence > Montpellier | 176.5km | Flat
Stage 7: Montpellier > Albi | 205.5km | Medium Mountains
Stage 8: Castres > Ax 3 Domaines | 195km | Summit Finish
Stage 9: Saint-Girons > Bagnères-de-Bigorre | 168.5km | High Mountains
Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo | 197km | Flat
Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT
Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat
Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat
Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains
Stage 15: Givors > Mont Ventoux | 242.5km | Summit Finish
Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine > Gap | 168km | Medium Mountains
Stage 17: Embrun > Chorges | 32km | ITT
Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish
Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains
Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish
Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat
-Dane Cash
Photos by Georges Ménager and Flowizm.
