Episode 1: Tour Down Under 2015 Pre-race Show The Recon Ride delves into the route and the startlist for the first WorldTour race of the year.
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VeloHuman is teaming up with Cosmo Catalano, the man behind How the Race Was Won and The Week in Bike, to present The Recon Ride, a pre-race podcast show. Our inaugural episode previews the 2015 Tour Down Under, delving into the route and the startlist, with a bit of Heinrich Haussler interview audio from a piece VH did for CyclingTips that you should absolutely check out, and even a few predictions at the end. Give it a listen!
The wait is over! The long WorldTour offseason is finally coming to an end as things get kicked off this week in Australia with the 17th edition of the Tour Down Under. A six-day stage race in and around Adelaide, the race has grown bigger and bigger in the past few years, and the parcours has developed as well: heavyweight sprinters have won the overall here in the past, but these days, a hillier route favors the more capable climbers in the peloton. Those hills tend to make for an exciting return to WorldTour racing, and also welcome return to race preview season here at VeloHuman.
Note: a shorter version of this preview can be seen at VeloNews.
The Route
There are no Alpine inclines to overcome in the Tour Down Under, but the hills that feature in a few of the race’s six stages are more than enough of a challenge to keep things interesting. The first WorldTour race of the year opens with a short (132.6 km) and mostly flat trip from Tanunda to Campbelltown, ending with a long straightaway that should give the sprinters an opportunity to pick up a victory. Stage 2 concludes with an uphill finish that has featured in previous editions of the Tour Down Under, probably not steep enough to make any serious separation likely, but potentially a place for the punchier GC contenders to make a bid for precious bonus seconds. Stage 3 features a new climb near the finish line in Paracombe, a short but steep affair that will almost certainly see gaps appearing in the bunch. The uphill specialists with GC aspirations cannot hesitate to launch for glory on Stage 3, as it is one of the few opportunities they will have to get clear of the peloton in the Tour Down Under.
Stage 4 will take the peloton on an undulating journey from Glenelg to Mt. Barker, where a flat finish will likely deter anyone from engaging in GC action. Stage 5, on the other hand, is the traditional queen stage of the Tour Down Under, 151.5 kilometers from McLaren Vale to classic TDU climb Willunga Hill, which will be climbed twice. 3 km at an average gradient over 7%, Old Willunga will inevitably see a showdown among the top climbers of the race. Richie Porte won here in 2014 with a 10 second gap, though as has often been the case in the TDU, his margin was not enough to overcome the GC bid of Simon Gerrans, whose propensity to collect bonus seconds put him in the driver’s seat in last year’s race. In other words, it is crucial to finish well on Willunga Hill, but consistent performance on the other five stages of the race is also crucial.
Stage 6 closes out the 2015 Tour Down Under with a 90 kilometer circuit race in the heart of Adelaide, essentially a very long criterium that almost invariably favors the pure sprinters.
Looking at the big picture, Stages 2, 3, and 5 are those likeliest to see the GC contenders trying to position themselves for a showdown. Regardless of whether serious gaps open up there or on any of the TDU’s six stages, however, it is important to be near the front at every finish line, as the dearth of long mountain climbs makes the battle for bonus seconds critical to the General Classification fight.
The GC Contenders
Sifting through the startlist to pick out the major favorites for the overall in the TDU can be difficult because the position of the race on the cycling calendar (in January) makes form and motivation a major unknown for a number of the riders in attendance, especially for those non-Australians who are not coming off of Nationals week like the home riders are. The absence of last year’s winner Simon Gerrans (who is out with a broken collarbone) will only add to that unpredictability. Still, plenty of big names, Australian and otherwise, stand out as likely GC contenders.
Having taken an impressive victory over several talented chrono stars in the Australian ITT National Championship, Richie Porte has proven to be in blazing form this January. There is no time trial in the TDU, and Porte isn’t known for his finishing kick, which will make it difficult for him to play the bonus seconds game, but with his ability to climb at an elite level, that might not matter. Given his display of fitness at Nationals, he looks ready to put it on the line here and it will be hard for his rivals to keep him in check when the road goes up. Geraint Thomas was 8th here last year even while riding in a support role for Porte, and he was 3rd in 2013. His powerful engine and not-insignificant sprinting ability will come in handy here, making him an excellent potential alternative for Sky.
Cadel Evans leads a BMC team that will hope to take on the Sky roster. This will be Evans’s last WorldTour event before he retires in a few weeks, and he’s never won this race, so he should be motivated to give it his all (especially after missing out on the victory here last year by one second). Even at age 37, he’s still got a nice finishing kick to pick up all-important time bonuses, and will be dangerous on several stages. In up-and-coming Australian talent Rohan Dennis, BMC has a strong second card to play. Dennis is known as a time-trialist but he climbed with the very best in last year’s Tour of California, and he is continuing to get better and better as an all-round talent.
Despite the absence of Simon Gerrans, Orica-GreenEdge will take on their home race with several potential GC men, with Daryl Impey looking like the best option. Impey is deadly in a reduced sprint, and if he can gain an early advantage of bonus seconds, he might have what it takes to hold on over the harder climbs. Simon Clarke’s penchant for aggressive riding could come in handy, especially in a race where one strong stage performance can be enough for an overall victory. Past winner Cameron Meyer will be more of an outsider this year, but a rider worth watching at the very least.
Cannondale-Garmin is another team with options. Ryder Hesjedal, Moreno Moser, and Alex Howes are all well-rounded talents with the potential to mix it up on a variety of stages, but Nathan Haas could be the best man on the squad for this Tour Down Under. He is another rider who will hope to win the bonus seconds game, and he showed off his strong finishing kick in last year’s race on his way to 5th overall. He has a propensity to perform very well outside of Europe, with two Japan Cup victories and results in the Jayco Herald Sun Tour and Tour de Langkawi as well.
Giant-Alpecin’s dual threat of Tom Dumoulin and Simon Geschke will be dangerous if both riders are in good enough form to mix it up with the favorites in this race. Dumoulin has an underrated sprint to match his elite soloing ability, while Geschke’s fast finish is a known commodity that will make him a contender for time bonuses on the 2nd and 4th stages. Katusha has Tiago Machado, an excellent climber, and Giampaolo Caruso, who is more explosive than many realize. That makes them another team with a dual threat worth keeping an eye on. AG2R brings a stable of climbers as well, with Domenico Pozzovivo the most prominent name but with Christophe Riblon and Blel Kadri, typically very strong on hillier days like the ones that could decide this race, making the start as well.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers will look to get clear of the peloton at any opportunity. The same is true for Lotto Soudal’s Adam Hansen; the Belgian squad also Thomas De Gendt as a potential contender. Astana’s Luis Leon Sanchez won here way back in 2005, and having returned to the WorldTour level with Astana after a year with Caja Rural, he will hope to kick the year off in style; his combination of strong soloing ability, decent climbing ability, and a nice sprint make him a dangerous outsider here. Movistar’s Jose Herrada and Gorka Izagirre and LottoNL’s George Bennett are other outsiders with a chance.
The Stagehunters
On the list of fast men who are making the start with clear stage-winning goals in mind, sprinting superstar Marcel Kittel tops the list, but his objectives and his readiness to take on a WorldTour-level race are a big question mark. He won the 2014 People’s Choice Classic but was afterward a non-factor in this race. Obviously, if he is in good shape, he will be the man to beat here in 2015, but that’s a big if. Form is also an unknown for talented Italians Giacomo Nizzolo and Roberto Ferrari, but there are stages to suit both if they are here to race. Nizzolo has great top-end speed and the opening stage to Campbelltown could suit him. Typically Mark Renshaw might have trouble hanging with the aforementioned big names, but on his home turf, anything is possible. Etixx – Quick-Step will hope to start the year off with a stage win from either Renshaw or the versatile Gianni Meersman, who could feature in Stages 2 or 4.
Heinrich Haussler is another rider with the potential to shine on those somewhat bumpier days. He was on excellent form in the Australian National Championship Road Race, getting into the day’s early breakaway at first, and then, after that was reeled in, jumping right back into another move off the front, the move that won the race. With that form, he should be able to do pick up some results in the Tour Down Under.
Steele Von Hoff, Barry Markus, Gregory Henderson, and JJ Lobato are other fast men to keep an eye on here.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
General Classification Winner: Richie Porte GC Podium: Cadel Evans, Daryl Impey Other Top GC Contenders: Nathan Haas, Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas, Michael Rogers, Luis Leon Sanchez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tiago Machado
VeloHuman was so excited about the return of racing season that in addition to writing this preview, VH teamed up with Cosmo Catalano to present The Recon Ride Podcast, a pre-race show. Give it a listen! And as usual, VH will be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more!
A great classics season has come to a close. It seems like every race had a thrilling finish, and, amazingly, each top level contest was won by a different rider. As the final stragglers crossed the Liege finish line (check out the VeloHuman Ardennes week recap here, by the way), the pro peloton entered a three month period of pure stage racing, starting with the Tour de Romandie. Six days of stunning scenery running through the French-speaking region of Switzerland, Romandie has seen quite an impressive past few years: every winner since 2011 has gone on to win the Tour de France that year. A good mix of time trials and climbing makes this an attractive option for Grand Tour riders. Chris Froome won last year’s edition in commanding fashion, with top lieutenant Richie Porte placing among the Top 10 as well, one of the pair’s many impressive performances in 2013.
Stages 3 and 5 will bring the GC men to the fore at the 2014 Tour de Romandie.
A short prologue, a final time trial of only 18.5 kilometers, and no summit finishes practically guarantee a close fought race that will come down to seconds in 2014. Stage 1 and Stage 3 may be the best opportunities for the climb-happy types to create gaps, but they’ll need to be aggressive, and they’ll also need to descend well, given the steep run-ins for home they’ll face if they decide to attack on either of those days.
The Contenders
Last year’s victor Chris Froome would enter this race as the big favorite, but this season’s injuries and a very recent chest infection that kept him out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege raise questions. Sky’s insists he’s ready to go. It will all come down to his health, because if he’s recovered, a race in which one third of the stages are time trials is pretty much the perfect setup for a guy who is head and shoulders above his fellow GC types in that discipline. Sky teammate Richie Porte is in a similar boat, recently struggling with health issues but well-suited for the parcours should he find himself in renewed form. If Sky’s all-rounder duo are sufficiently recovered from their ailments, it’s hard to see around the team that has won this race in back-to-back years.
Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali was an 11th hour addition to the startlist, and one of the prime reasons I’m publishing the preview so late in the game! The elite all-rounder will relish the opportunity to face off against Chris Froome before the Tour de France, and he has a stacked team behind him. Nibali had a disappointing classics campaign but the abundance of mountains and time trials make this stage race more his style. Jakob Fuglsang is always a great second for the Italian Grand Tour winner. Janez Brajkovic (who has had a lot of success here through the years) and Tanel Kangert are additional members of a very dangerous squad.
Coming off a podium performance (and a stage win) at the Volta a Catalunya and a decent showing (6th) at the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, Tejay van Garderen is a top contender in a race with two days of time trialing. I found him a bit underwhelming in that discipline, and in general, at a Pais Vasco race that seemed to suit him, but he’s had a bit of time to rest and he’s building towards a July peak anyway, so I see him as a strong candidate for the overall victory here. Peter Velits is an excellent time trialist who was 9th in a Paris-Nice without an ITT, showing great climbing form in 2014—he’ll be a good second for BMC.
America’s other top 25-year-old all-rounder is another top contender here: Garmin’s Andrew Talansky will also appreciate the overall parcours. He has stated that this race is one of his biggest targets of the year, and he already has a history of success in the event—in 2012, he was 2nd overall to the man who the Tour de France that year, Bradely Wiggins. He rounded into form this year with a 7th overall at Catalunya. His combination of focus, tailored skillset, and past results puts him among the favorites. Garmin also sends Tom Danielson, 4th in last year’s edition, and the excellent Rohan Dennis, who is demonstrating a knack for success in shorter stage races early in his career.
Much like the aforementioned group, AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud will be a tough opponent in a race in which time trialing is likely to be a major factor. His 3rd overall at Pais Vasco came on the back of a top-shelf day against the clock. Finding yourself on a podium ahead of Tejay van Garderen and Alejandro Valverde is no mean feat. He should continue his stellar form into Romandie. Actually winning a big race is a skill he is still finetuning, but with an open field and a parcours well-suited to his abilities, Peraud could start winning soon. He was 6th at Romandie in 2013, and looks poised to better that result this year.
Katusha’s Simon Spilak was runner-up in this race in 2013 (and he won a stage to boot) and overall victor in 2010. This is favored territory for the Slovenian all-rounder, and he’s coming off an excellent Pais Vasco, in which he nabbed 4th overall. Short stage races with a good mix of mountains and time trials are his bread and butter, and I see him fighting among some of the bigger name riders this week.
Time trial mileage will play its part here, but so will bonus seconds, and Lampre’s Rui Costa combines a decent time trial with an elite stage-winning/bonus-second-earning jump. He had an extremely disappointing Ardennes campaign, crashing in two of three races and coming away without a big result. However, he will be fresher than he might have been had he raced a full Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the lack of victories in the rainbow stripes will motivate the always aggressive rider from Portugal. He has been 3rd in back-to-back Tours de Romandie, and he has won back-to-back Tours de Suisse, suggesting he knows what it takes to succeed in Switzerland.
The OPQS squad lining up for Romandie is very impressive, and full of potential contenders. Rigoberto Uran is not much of a time trialist, but he’s hard to beat on the slopes, with an explosive kick that he’ll likely be looking to use in Stages 1 and 3. Uran started off the year nicely by taking 3rd in the Tour of Oman, but then he seemed to fade a bit at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Volta a Catalunya. He skipped the Ardennes Classics this year to train, focused heavily on preparing for his main 2014 goal, the Giro d’Italia. He may be low on recent race mileage, but he’ll be rested and motivated to prove he’s back on form. Teammate Michal Kwiatkowski was a late addition to the startlist, and a major wildcard for OPQS. On paper, Romandie is perfectly suited to the wunderkind: he excels in time trials and he’s a very fast finisher who can get serious time bonuses, both skills that give him a leg up here. The only question for Kwiatkowski is whether he will be able to contest a race like this after going full-throttle in the Ardennes. He could challenge to win the whole thing, or he could just focus on stages, or maybe he’s just here to ride for his teammates. Tony Martin may be a legitimate GC contender with so much riding on the time trials. He can climb surprisingly well (he has always performed at a top level in the Tour of Beijing, despite a lack of chrono miles there). He was runner-up in 2011 to Cadel Evans, and with such a strong team to help on the climbs, he could be a serious challenger here. Thomas de Gendt is another good time trialist who is still looking for the climbing legs he once had; should he find them, he’s another nice alternative.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot impressed me with his performance in the Basque Country, even if the result was merely a 9th place. After Contador blew the doors off the contest on the first day, the race for the rest of the Top 10 essentially came down to hanging with the pack on the mountain stages and delivering a strong time trial on the final stage. Pinot did both. I think he’s rediscovered some of the form he seemed to lack in 2014. With a team full of opportunists like Kenny Elissonde, Alexandre Geniez, and Jeremy Roy, FDJ can send riders up the road to pressure on the other contenders.
Beñat Intxausti was 5th in Romandie in 2011. He hasn’t shown much in 2014, generally riding in support of one of Movistar’s bigger names, but he has a knack for succeeding when Quintana and Valverde aren’t around (he won last year’s Tour of Beijing ahead of the likes of Dan Martin and Rui Costa, and took a stage and 8th overall at the Giro earlier in 2013). Ion Izagirre put in a strong time trial at Pais Vasco, and his recent showings in that discipline (which helped him nab 2nd overall at last year’s Tour de Pologne), combined with proven climbing legs, make him another great option for the always strong Movistar team. With Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka, Tinkoff-Saxo sends a powerful 1-2 punch. Neither rider has shown much yet this year, so form is something of an unknown, and I’m not sure the TT-heavy parcours suits them, but they’ll be a tough team to plan against on the climbs. Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has had a slow start to the year but with the Giro around the corner I imagine he’ll pick it up here. Mathias Frank will lead home team IAM Cycling in his home country of Switzerland. 2nd overall at the Criterium International, he’s showing an improved time trial, and he’s always been a strong climber. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam will hope to make an impression with the rare opportunity to ride for his own interests. Trek’s hopes are in the hands of young Riccardo Zoidl, and I’m excited to see what he can do in this race.
Stagehunters
With a pair of days against the clock and a few stages that could end in bunch sprints, the Tour de Romandie is attractive some fine stagehunters. Marcel Kittel headlines the sprinters. He’s easily the class of the bunch, and he looks strong as usual this year after a dominant third Scheldeprijs victory early this month. Though he may not be daunted by the other sprinters on the startlist, he will have to work hard to make it over some bumps in the road, as every massed-start stage in this race has a few hills along the way to the finish line. Fortunately for them, Giant-Shimano has the fast-rising Luka Mezgec for the harder days if Marcel Kittel should struggle. He waited until the final day of WorldTour racing in 2013 to take his first victor at that level, but this year he has already racked up three WT stage wins, dominating the sprints in Catalunya. If Giant-Shimano doesn’t take a victory in Romandie, it’ll be a pretty big disappointment.
Taking on the Giant-Shimano sprinting juggernaut will be Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Katusha’s Alexey Tsatevich, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and Lampre’s Robert Ferrari.
Time trial specialists (beyond the GC guys) include world champ Tony Martin (who may or may not contest the overall), Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and Jonathan Castroviejo, and Orica-GreenEdge’s Svein Tuft and Michael Hepburn. The first day’s prologue is short enough that it might favor a powerful sprinter: don’t be surprised to see the likes of Marcel Kittel or Giacomo Nizzolo (2nd in the very short prologue in 2012) give it a go.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen Top 10: Andrew Talansky, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Simon Spilak, Rigoberto Uran, Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowski
I’ll be tweeting more live analysis during the race, so follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter! The next race on the calendar is a big one: the Giro d’Italia is just around the corner, and there will be previews of both the overall race and each stage, so be sure to tune in. Hope to see you then!
Fabian Cancellara has just won a thrilling Tour of Flanders sticking a late move with Greg Van Avermaet, Sep Vanmarcke, and Stijn Vandenbergh and outgunning all three Belgians at the line. Check back soon for a post-race impressions on De Ronde, and remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more. The cobbled experts remain in Northern Europe through the week waiting for the Hell of the North to kick off. Meanwhile, many of the pro peloton’s top GC riders are on again in Spain, lining up for the Tour of the Basque Country. The often rainy, rarely flat journey through the region, a spectacle notable enough to be mentioned in Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, draws an impressive start list to match its always-exciting parcours. In fact, every winner since 2007 also has at least one Grand Tour win or 2nd place in a Grand Tour on his palmares. Last year’s victor, Nairo Quintana, went on to take 2nd overall in the 2013 Tour de France. He is not returning to defend his title, but Alberto Contador, Quintana’s Grand Tour winning teammate Alejandro Valverde, and many other heavy hitters will line up to take on the ups and downs of Pais Vasco.
Stages 4 and 6 will be crucial GC battlegrounds at the 2014 Tour of the Basque Country
Though a stage or two might go to a sprinter, none of the stages in the Tour of the Basque country could be considered “flat.” The very 1st stage might create time gaps if a punchy climber launches on one of the many sharp Category 2 ascents on the day, including a one starting within 10 kilometers of the finish. The 4th and 6th stages could be most decisive: Stage 4 finishes with a climb of Arrate (though it ends on a short downhill), where Nairo Quintana climbed to the stage victory in 2013. Anyone with ambitions of winning this race, however, will have to keep it together through the 6th and final stage, a 25.9 kilometer time trial with a pair of serious climbs along the way. And throughout the week, you can expect rainy weather to force all the contenders to adapt.
All-Rounder Roundup
After his dominant victory at Tirreno-Adriatico and strong showing for 2nd place at Catalunya, the GC conversation at Pais Vasco has to start with two-time winner of this race, Alberto Contador. Tinkoff-Saxo’s star is back with a vengeance in 2014, and this is an event in which he has a great history of success. While the race lacks an interminable uphill slog to a summit finish that one might see in a Grand Tour, there are plenty of climbing miles for Alberto to wear down lesser challengers. Moreover, the stage 6 time trial will favor Contador’s high endurance game over the purer climbers who struggle against the clock. Tinkoff-Saxo does not send their top rider to Pais Vasco alone, however; Roman Kreuziger joins Contador for this race as he joined him at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he finished on the podium. As an Ardennes-winner with the ability to jump ahead on the short steep climbs (of which there are many in this race), Roman Kreuziger is a danger man. He also has a great time trial. Tinkoff-Saxo’s one-two punch will put other teams under a ton of pressure.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has not raced the Basque Country often in recent years, but he had a great deal of success earlier in his career, coming in 2nd in 2006 and nabbing several stage wins across multiple editions. A two time Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner, and also a winner of the Basque Country’s most famous one day race, the Clasica de San Sebastian, Valverde has some experience finding the perfect launching pad among a succession of climbs. He can also hold his own against the clock, especially in the mountains. Most importantly, he’s on fire in 2014, having already won a slew of lower level victories. As usual, Movistar sends plenty of support. Basque Country native Benat Intxausti was 8th here in 2013 and 2nd in 2010. He packs both excellent climbing ability and a strong time trial. Young Jon Izagirre, another rider from El Pais Vasco and a former Euskaltel squad member to boot, will also look to use his combined climbing and trialing ability to make a showing in this race. With several strong options, Movistar will likely be very active this week.
World Champion Rui Costa is an excellent all-rounder who will love the stage profiles; only a few singularly grueling climbs, many small but difficult ascents thrown in, and a hilly time trial to finish (Costa is strong against the clock when there is climbing involved). Costa will look for every opportunity to jump off the front when the rest of the peloton grinds to a halt going uphill, not only because every second will count in this race (though there are no bonus seconds at the line), but also because he’s still looking for his first win in the rainbow jersey in 2014. Teammate Damiano Cunego has had many strong results in Pais Vasco, with numerous top 10s in the past few years.
BMC’s Tejay van Garderen is coming off an excellent trip to Catalunya, where he climbed his way to his first WorldTour victory on stage 4, and 3rd place overall. He must be ecstatic to have landed such fine results in a race without a time trial. In Pais Vasco, the American all-rounder will be salivating at the final day’s test against the clock, which will suit his engine. In addition, his Catalunya victory seems to show an improved ability to explode uphill, which will help van Garderen in the days prior to the final chrono. BMC will be backing him up with quite a supporting cast. Cadel Evans makes the trip to prepare for the Giro. Samuel Sanchez, who has a great history of success in this race, winning in 2012, will look to put together a result for his new team. He was still a bit off his game in Catalunya but the Tour of the Basque Country suits him and I believe he will be motivated to step up.
Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur heads up the suddenly world-beating AG2R team. Minor injury put his participation in question until the last minute, but he seems set to start. He was 7th last year, and on stellar form in 2014, he’s a great bet to pick up time charging ahead on the early stages of this race; the biggest challenge for Betancur will be the final stage, as he generally struggles against the clock. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud may actually be the better overall bet, coming off basically the first big victory of his very long career in the Criterium International last week. He is good against the clock, especially in this kind of ITT, and with his 4th place at Tirreno-Adriatico he showed an impressive ability to contend with the top GC guys right now. Versatile Christophe Riblon is yet another option for AG2R.
Early season star Michal Kwiatkowski had a very disappointing Tirreno-Adriatico, and his only race since was a DNF at Milano-Sanremo. He was on blazing form in February and March, but it is unclear if he has still kept that top-shelf shape into April. If so, he is very dangerous here, with so many short climbs that suit him much better than the grueling T-A stage that sunk his hopes in that race. If he can limit his losses uphill, especially on Stage 4, he will be a strong contender to win the final time trial outright, making him a good bet for the overall at Pais Vasco 2014.
Belkin’s dynamic duo of Bauke Mollema and Robert Gesink (3rd here in 2011) will hope that Pais Vasco goes better for them than Tirreno-Adriatico did (Mollema was well of the pace and Gesink abandoned T-A with a health issue). Both have looked good in other races this season, and I think the Pais Vasco parcours will be good for them. Simon Spilak leads the Katusha charge; 4th in 2013, he’s looked alright so far in 2014 with results that include a Top 10 in Paris-Nice. He can do a decent time trial when there are hills involved. FDJ sends Thibaut Pinot, who looked to be rounding into form at Catalunya after struggling to get his season started. Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal also looked to be getting back into shape at Catalunya after not participating in many races so far in 2014. He was 6th at the Gran Premio Miguel Indurain this week, so he seems to be continuing to improve. Andy and Frank Schleck headline Trek Factory Racing. Frank has looked decent so far this year, but teammate Robert Kiserlovski might be their most on-form rider here after his 7th in Tirreno-Adriatico and 10th in Catalunya.
Orica-GreenEdge’s Pieter Weening showed in last year’s Tour de Pologne that a hilly time trial suits him; he was 6th in Pais Vasco in 2013. Adam and Simon Yates are also along for OGE; keep an eye out for the highly touted young duo. Giant-Shimano’s pair of Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin could make waves here. Barguil will love the constant opportunities to jump up the road on a climb, and Dumoulin is a serious time trialing talent. Astana sends Mikel Landa, Janez Brajkovic, and Tanel Kangert (who is great against the clock). Lotto’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck will hope that this is the race that puts him on track in 2014. Caja Rural’s David Arroyo abandoned Catalunya in the final day but had been climbing at a high level before then; teammate Luis Leon Sanchez is a time trialing talent who has had plenty of success racing bikes in El Pais Vasco. Pierre Rolland has not gotten it going yet in 2014, but the two-time Tour de France Top 10er at least deserves a mention. And lastly: in a rare occurrence, Sky does not really have a top contender in this race, with their various stars racing, training, or recovering elsewhere; Mikel Nieve and Peter Kennaugh are their best bets here.
Stagehunters
The dearth of flat stages has kept the start list light on sprinting talent. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews and Sky’s Ben Swift will be happy to pick up whatever sprint finishes they can. Barring any late additions to the startlist Michael Morkov and Daniele Ratto comprise basically the rest of the list of riders to watch in a bunch gallop.
As with many races with this kind of parcours, most stages will see the GC contenders on their toes and alert for opportunities to strike; some of them, riders like Valverde, Costa, and Kwiatkowski will be looking to pick up multiple stage wins as well as fight for the General Classification. Holding off these big names will be a challenge for the stagehunters here, but the list of punchy fast-finishers among them is an impressive one: Orica Green-Edge’s Simon Gerrans (who won a stage last year), and BMC’s Philippe Gilbert headline the group. A number of the stars of Paris-Nice make the start as well. Garmin’s Tom-Jelte Slagter will love his chances to pick up more stage victories here. The same could be said for FDJ’s Arthur Vichot. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier will look for his first WorldTour win after a fine start to 2014. Jan Bakelants and Pieter Serry of OPQS also like to jump on the late bumps in the road and both have fast finishes. Astana’s Maxim Iglinskiy and Enrico Gasparotto could be active as well.
Amets Txurruka deserves a mention all to himself: he will almost certainly be up the road going for the long breakaway victory on multiple days of this race. He was King of the Mountains last year.
VeloHuman Favorites
Winner: Alberto Contador Podium: Tejay van Garderen, Alejandro Valverde Top 10: Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowksi, Roman Kreuziger, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Carlos Betancur
Be sure to follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race, and come back soon for more classics coverage: the Paris-Roubaix preview is up next!
The crown jewel of the Flanders classics is finally here. Weeks of racing on the cobbles of Northern Europe have offered insights into who has the most in the tank right now, but on Sunday we get to see the big show, De Ronde van Vlaanderen. It is a 259 kilometer journey from Bruges to the finish line. The first 90 kilometers or so are relatively flat and the road does not meander much on its way to the first visit of finishing city Oudenaard, but then, the parcours turns hostile, winding sharply in a number of loops through East Flanders and greeting the riders with a constant barrage of steep, often cobbled climbs. The 2.2 kilometer, 4.2% average grade Oude Kwaremont (with a half kilometer at over 10%) must be ascended three times, twice with the Paterberg (roughly 380 meters, 13%) immediately following. The second ascent of this Oude Kwaremont/Paterberg double comes with only 15 km to go, after a battery of other climbs that includes the Koppenberg, Taaienberg, and Kruisberg. Any of the aforementioned bumps in the road could be a launching pad for a rider with the legs to fly solo on the way to a Monumental victory. Weather sometimes further complicates things in this race; the forecast for Sunday show clouds with a slight chance of rain at the moment. The wind will likely factor as well.
As the riders take on these grueling challenges, I’ll be tweeting live analysis of the race at the new @VeloHuman on Twitter. Be sure to follow!
The Riders to Watch
Last year’s winner Fabian Cancellara enters the race as a slight favorite among the bookmakers. Cancellara has shown strong legs in the early goings this season, but you might not know it from the results of the past few weeks in Belgium. Caught behind crashes in both E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, he has not been able to put his world-beating power on display at the very front of the race; he has, however, shown off strong form trying to recover. Meanwhile, his Milano-Sanremo sprint for 2nd against a very talented field shows a great deal of strength at the level of his game as well. Cancellara builds his season around the seven days between this and next Sunday, and it will be hard to match him on the road. He also has a two-time winner of this race in teammate Stijn Devolder, a rider capable of pulling for his team leader or launching attacks if necessary (don’t count out Devolder as a contender—he is only a few years removed from back-to-back victories and looks good this season).
Cannondale’s Peter Sagan occupied the next step on the podium of the 2013 Ronde. The Slovakian has not let up in 2014, winning E3 Harelbeke and taking 3rd in the less selective Gent-Wevelgem. I’ve been suggesting in past previews and post-race analyses that he may be focusing more seriously on his climbing and soloing abilities this year, possibly at the expense of his sprint. After this weekend, there won’t be any more guesswork on that front. Perhaps the biggest hurdle standing in the way of his bid for victory will be the distance; the one-day races Sagan has won in the recent past have been shorter contests, and in the seemingly interminable Monuments like Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, he has had trouble maintaining the level of energy that rival Cancellara seems to be able to muster. In short, it will be very difficult to match Spartacus in this grueling contest. However, this is a major goal of Peter Sagan’s season and he has another year of experience under his belt to help him in 2014. Knowing when to attempt the decisive attack and when to find a wheel is crucial in this race. I believe Sagan will also benefit from a larger group of contenders helping track down a late Cancellara solo move. His teammate Oscar Gatto is a very strong rider on these roads who is having a good early season to boot. He will be a valuable lieutenant against so many teams stacked with talent.
Tom Boonen missed the 2013 edition of this race (which he has won three times), but he is back and looking strong at the head of the Omega Pharma-Quick Step attack this year. He has been able to stay near the front of the races he has targetted this season, and victories in Qatar and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne and a strong showing at Gent-Wevelgem are evidence of his still impressive finishing kick. His classics campaign has not been without its misfortunes, however; tragedy has struck his personal life, and he sustained a painful thumb injury at E3 Harelbeke. He is, with Cancellara and Sagan, in the top tier of bookmakers’ favorites for this race, but OPQS will have a host of options should Boonen not be up to the challenge. Teammate Niki Terpstra is on fire this spring, winning Dwars door Vlaanderen and coming in 2nd in E3 Harelbeke after showing strong legs at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and February’s Tour of Qatar (which he won). With form like this, he is a serious threat to go long. Zdenek Stybar is the team’s wild card. The winner of 2013’s Eneco Tour and 6th place finisher in Paris-Roubaix is not far removed from winning the 2013-2014 cyclocross world championship race, and he looked very capable on the climbs of Paris-Nice and the brutal Milano-Sanremo in March. Stybar has shown a remarkable ability to make it up and over the short, steep bumps in the road, and I think this skill will set him up nicely in the Ronde. Teammate Stijn Vandenbergh has also been very active this spring, while Guillaume van Keirsbulck has just won the Three Days of De Panne.
Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke occupies a role on the fringe on the top tier favorites, as the main challenger to the established trio of Cancellara, Sagan, and Boonen. He has been in the top 5 of all four Belgian races he has undertaken in 2014, showing plenty of power and a strong finish. He has been knocking on the door for a few years now, though he is yet to nab a win at this level. 2014 seems as good a year as any. In 2013, the 25-year-old Belgian stood on the podium of Paris-Roubaix, a position he earned by hanging with Cancellara himself (alone among all the other riders in that race); he clearly has a wealth of talent. Still, the Ronde offers some serious uphill challenges, and it is the one major Belgian classic race that Vanmarcke does not have a big result in as of yet. It will be interesting to see if he can up his game a notch to handle cobbled climb after cobbled climb. He will be supported by a deep squad that includes Lars Boom.
Jurgen Roelandts was the third man on the podium in 2013, and he returns to the Ronde in 2014 looking sharp early this year. He has spent much of his time on the road as Andre Greipel’s top lieutenant, but he has shown strong form when given the opportunity. In last week’s Gent-Wevelgem, he took up the reins for Lotto when Greipel went down in the final kilometers, and still managed a respectable 10th. Meanwhile, teammate Tony Gallopin, winner of the 2013 Clasica de San Sebastian, has put together several fine performances so far this year. A true all-rounder, he will hope to put pressure on his opponents on the race’s many inclines. With Roelandts and Gallopin at the helm, Lotto-Belisol is not a team to be underestimated. Team Sky is another dangerous squad with multiple versatile options. Ian Stannard will be sidelined for a while with a serious back injury, but Geraint Thomas was 3rd at E3 Harelbeke and on track for a podium finish in the recent Paris-Nice before crashing out of that race. He is riding at a very high level right now, and has the toughness to hold on when the other contenders start to fall off the pace. Meanwhile, teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen looked very strong in this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and has continued to show form in support of his teammates in the run-up to De Ronde. His sprint is a known commodity, and he’s a danger man should he be at the front of the race as it nears its conclusion. Even Bradley Wiggins is here, filling in for the injured Stannard.
BMC’s Greg van Avermaet has notched three top 10s in this race, two in the past two years. He came so close to winning Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in early March, and has looked decent in the past few cobbled races. He certainly possesses the right array of skills, mixing capable climbing legs with a knack for going solo and a strong finish, but whether all of his combined strengths will shine bright enough to beat out the serious competition in this race is the big unknown. A top 10 is always within his reach; the win always seems just out of it. Perhaps 2014 is the year it all comes together? Meanwhile, BMC also sends Taylor Phinney, recovering from an ailment but maybe a factor with a late attack, and Thor Hushovd, should the bunch somehow stay intact to the line.
Gent-Wevelgem winner John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano will also hope he can hang on while riders try to blow up the race on the likes of the Koppenberg and Oude Kwaremont. However, I don’t think he’s purely reliant on a bunch sprint finish for victory. Degenkolb has been known to attack out of the bunch in tough races, and his form has looked sharper than ever this spring. With every race, Degenkolb seems to grow more confident in his ability to handle the difficult days. Unfortunately for him, his opponents will do everything in their power to avoid a situation in which they may be forced to face him in a sprint, meaning that Degenkolb will be fighting for his life on Sunday. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was 2nd at G-W, and he’ll be hoping he can keep pace this Sunday as well. He is a tough competitor. Among the toughest fastmen on the road will be Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, who finished 4th in 2013. These climbs could be a bit beyond his skillset, but the long day in the saddle and the relatively flat closing kilometers play in the favor of the of Milano-Sanremo winner. Teammate Luca Paolini has looked great in support of Kristoff so far this year, and he may look for opportunities to get up the road in Flanders.
IAM Cycling sends a pair of former Ronde runners-up in Sylvain Chavanel, who will look to strike from afar, and Heinrich Haussler, who will hope to outpace opponents at the line. Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato was runner-up just two years ago, and he has been in the Top 10 two more times in the past. He has not shown much this year but his 2013 GP Ouest France victory came as a surprise after a while off his best form, and this is a race he has a history in. Teammate Sacha Modolo will struggle mightily to hang on when attacks are launching left and right, but should it come to a mass gallop, he has been flying in the sprints this year.
The list of outsiders with a chance at victory from a small group or long attack also includes Daryl Impey and Jens Keukeleire of Orica-GreenEdge, Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld and Johan Vansummeren, and Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Bjorn Leukemans (4th in 2010).
Movistar’s JJ Lobato and Francisco Ventoso, Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Astana’s Borut Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi, MTN Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Tinkoff-Saxo’s dangerous duo of Matti Breschel and Daniele Bennati, Topsport Vlaanderen’s on-form up-and-comer Tom Van Asbroeck, Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Jean-Pierre Drucker, and NetApp’s Sam Bennett comprise a list of other outsiders looking for an opportunity to use their sprinting abilities should a larger group somehow remain intact at the finish.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Peter Sagan Podium: Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen Other Top Contenders: Zdenek Stybar, Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, Jurgen Roelandts, John Degenkolb, Greg van Avermaet, Niki Terpstra
Follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! And come back soon to check out previews of the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco and next week’s Paris-Roubaix, as well as post-race analysis of what promises to be a thrilling Tour of Flanders.
A Cobbled Classic for the Fastest Riders in the Pack
E3 Harelbeke is in the books! Cannondale’s Peter Sagan, facing questions of his form after a disappointing Milano-Sanremo, won a commanding victory over Niki Terpstra and Geraint Thomas, surviving attempts from the peloton to reel in their late attack. Now, it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem, Sunday’s roughly 230 kilometer journey from Deinze to Wevelgem near the Flemish coast. Its trademark Kemmelberg is a steep, challenging obstacle on the way to the finish, but Gent-Wevelgem has been one for the sprinters in recent years (though Peter Sagan used a late attack, and not his elite sprint, to win last year’s edition). As such, the field is full of fast men. Most of the top names are here, and their teams will be focused on bringing them to the line safely.
Peter Sagan, winner here last year, has the climbing legs to make it over the bumps along the way and the kick to outsprint most of the starters to the line. VeloHuman wasn’t really concerned about his form after Milano-Sanremo, but some observers were; he put those concerns to bed with a masterful performance at E3 Harelbeke. It’s hard to see a select group making the final kilometers without Sagan in it, and he has one of the fastest finishes in the race, fast enough to contend with anyone here. If he feels threatened by some of the bigger sprinters, he also has the ability to power away on his own, as he did in 2013.
Omega Pharma might have had a strong bid to challenge Sagan here, but health issues are putting their chances in doubt. Tom Boonen has won this race three times. Like Sagan, he can make it over bumps and can get into late moves, or initiate them himself, but he also has the kick to be in the mix in a bunch finish. However, he injured his thumb in E3 Harelbeke, and that injury could keep him from making an impact at Gent-Wevelgem; keep an eye here or at the new VH Twitter account,@VeloHuman, for updates. He’ll be in my Top 10 for now. Zdenek Stybar is another option, but G-W might not be difficult enough for him to be a true contender. Stijn Vandenbergh looked great in E3, but his finishing kick could leave him lacking here. Pure sprinter Mark Cavendish could have been the guy for OPQS (his 5th place in Sanremo shows he’s capable in 2014 of making it to the line in a tough one day race, and with the elite Belgian squad to deliver him, Gent-Wevelgem could have been within his reach), but a fever will sideline him Sunday. Perhaps they will turn to Nikolas Maes in his stead?
Mark Cavendish’s ever-present sprinting rival Andre Greipel will make the start. The Lotto-Belisol rider mentioned both cramps and a gearing issue as problematic for him in MSR, but whatever the reason, he did not make an impression there. Still, with a strong team to help him overcome the Belgian landscape, he’s a great bet in a sprint finish. Lotto looked very good at E3 Harelbeke, and Gent-Wevelgem could suit their star fast man.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff was not in the least bit troubled by the rigors of Milano-Sanremo, and he showed an impressive kick after a hard-fought day in that race, taking a commanding victory ahead of some top talent. Clearly at the top level right now, Kristoff will look to deliver again in Gent-Wevelgem. He has a knack for winning bunch sprints in the cobbled classics, even if those sprints are contesting 4th place behind the day’s last surviving attackers. This race offers a great opportunity for sprinters like Kristoff to actually contest the victory. Luca Paolini is a fine second. Another rider who has made a career out of a impressive kicks following long days is Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, who was robbed of his chance at Milano-Sanremo glory by an untimely puncture in the closing kilometers. He will take on Gent-Wevelgem looking for some shred of vindication. He managed to make it into the Top 10 of last year’s Tour of Flanders and the 2012 edition of E3, so he has shown at least some ability on cobbled Belgian roads. On the fine form he’s showing this year, with the added fuel of a chip on the shoulder, Degenkolb should challenge for victory here.
FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was unable to hang on in Milano-Sanremo but this race should be more manageable, and he looks good this year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo was a well-placed finisher in MSR and might be an even better bet here, with Filippo Pozzato (who has notched a few top 10s here) another strong option for the team, especially if some of the top sprinters are weeded out. Orica-Greenedge sends Matt Goss, desperate to show he still has what it takes. Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar looked great in Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 Harelbeke, and he has a very strong supporting cast to deliver him here. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland has looked great in several races this year, and he, too, has a very strong supporting cast. Other contenders looking for a sprint finish, reduced or otherwise, include Astana’s Borut Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi, MTN’s Gerald Ciolek, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, Tinkoff-Saxo’s triple option of Matti Breschel, Daniele Bennati, and Michael Morkov, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi and Heinrich Haussler, Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (winner in 2009) and Bernie Eisel (winner in 2010), NetApp’s Sam Bennett, WGG’s Jean-Pierre Drucker, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and BMC’s Thor Hushovd.
Trek’s Fabian Cancellara could try to animate the race with a solo move. A crash with around 40 km to go in E3 made it all the more difficult for Cancellara to get to the front of affairs, but his 8th place there showed good cobbled form. Unfortunately for Cancellara, the G-W parcours favors him less. Still, he’s shown a good finishing kick so far in 2014 should he need to use it. Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, also on blazing form this spring (hampered in that race by a number of mechanical issues, he still nabbed 5th at E3 Harelbeke), will look for getaway opportunities as well. Teammate Lars Boom is sure to do the same; watch out for fireworks from Belkin. The parcours will make victory from a late attack difficult, but Sky’s Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas (looking great right now), Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld, BMC’s Greg van Avermaet and Taylor Phinney, Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts and Tony Gallopin, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, Omega Pharma’s Zdenek Stybar, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, and WGG’s Bjorn Leukemans are other candidates to go for a long one.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Peter Sagan Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Andre Greipel Other Top Contenders: John Degenkolb, Arnaud Demare, Borut Bozic, Sacha Modolo, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen, Tyler Farrar
