Tag: Predictions

Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Cuneo › Torino – 163km

The 2016 Giro d’Italia comes to a conclusion Sunday in Torino. It’s a day that should go to the sprinters, but as we saw in Stage 17, anything is possible at this point in the race, with so many quick men out of the equation.

A hundred kilometers after the peloton sets out from Cuneo, it will roll onto an urban circuit of 7.5km. Each lap includes an early climb of less than 1km at around 5% and then a tricky series of corners, roundabouts, and even one tunnel en route to the finish line.

It’s the sort of finish that will have aggressive riders looking to jump clear, so if the sprinters’ teams aren’t careful, we could see an escapee steal the win.

I still think the most likely scenario is a bunch kick, however, so the list of favorites starts with the two top sprinters left in the race: Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo. As I said in Stage 17, I think Nizzolo is stronger right now, and he’s definitely better for this tricky, somewhat lumpy finish. He’s my stage favorite, but as ever, a cautious one, because picking Nizzolo to win a grand tour stage has quite literally never worked out before.

I think much of the blame for that falls on his team’s shoulders. Trek tends to disappear in the final kilometers of sprint stages, as they did in Stage 17, and if that happens here, it could tank Nizzolo’s chances once again. And even if the team is there, Modolo is a tough rival and another strong contender.

Matteo Trentin, Nikias Arndt, JJ Rojas, Heinrich Haussler, Ramunas Navardauskas, and Alexander Porsev are the other speedsters I’ll be watching Sunday.

Keep an eye on the likes of Adam Hansen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Bak, Stefan Küng, and Moreno Moser in the last few laps — they’re on the list of candidates for a breakaway victory on the day.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Matteo Trentin

May 29, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Guillestre › Sant’Anna di Vinadio – 134km

One last day in the mountains! The GC will be decided Saturday in the Alps across three Cat. 1 ascents and Cat. 3 finale. The climbing starts immediately on a stage that has essentially no flat sections to speak of.

The second and third Cat. 1 climbs are particularly difficult, and actually rather similar. The Col de La Bonette is 22.25km at a mostly steady gradient of just under 7%, while the Colle della Lombarda is 19.85km at a little over 7%. Then comes a sharp descent into the short but steep Cat. 3 climb to the finish.

It’ll be tough to control the race on this profile (a few days ago I had this pegged as a breakaway day), but as close as the GC is, I think it will be the pink jersey hopefuls battling for the stage win in the end.

After a first week full of successful predictions, this Giro has been anything but predictable, with one rider after another appearing to be out of form only to come back with a vengeance a few days later, or looking strong only to falter just when we’re expecting big things. As such, it’s hard to be confident that Vincenzo Nibali will repeat his impressive Stage 19 performance here—but that’s what we have to go on. That, and the fact that he’s the most decorated rider in contention for the pink jersey. He looked quite strong Friday and I expect more Saturday.

Esteban Chaves should be the main competition. I think he’ll hang close with Nibali on these climbs for a while. The big unknown is just how well he’s feeling in the third week of a grand tour. Remember, Chaves has yet to finish on the podium in a three-week race.

Steven Kruijswijk has been so impressive in this Giro, so he can’t be counted out, but his crash left him injured and that makes him tough to name a top favorite for Stage 20. Keep an eye on him, but maybe watch out for Alejandro Valverde instead. He seems to be step behind Chaves in form right now, but this finale suits him perfectly if he can hang on.

Rafal Majka is the other GC rider whose chances I like here. He’ll probably have freedom to attack if he likes, and he tends to thrive on these up-and-down stages.

Should a long-range strike prove successful, watch out for Sky’s Mikel Nieve, Nicolas Roche, Sebastian Henao, and David López, as well as Darwin Atapuma, Alessandro De Marchi, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Joe Dombrowski, and Stefano Pirazzi, among others.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Esteban Chaves | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 28, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Pinerolo › Risoul: 162km

Friday’s stage is a short but brutal one. The route includes just two categorized climbs, but one of them (the first one) ascends to the highest point in the race. Moreover, that climb, the Colle d’Agnello, is preceded by around 50 kilometers of … climbing. All told, it’s around 70 kilometers of ascending with an average grade over 3%, with the official climb itself scaling just over 21km at just under 7%.

If that’s not enough to exhaust the riders, the summit is followed by a fast descent that runs right to the foot of the day’s other climb, a Cat. 1 ascent to Risoul. It’s 12.85km at again just under 7%.

As short as it is, the stage will be raced hard from the gun, and on these gradients, I think we are likely to see plenty of riders blow up. In terms of the battle for the stage win, I think the breakaway and the general classification riders have roughly equal chances of fighting it out Friday, but among the GC riders there are far fewer riders on the list of favorites so I’ll start there.

Steven Kruijswijk has looked like the best climber so far in this Giro. He also really wants to win a stage—he’s definitely among the top contenders for Stage 19. However, I don’t think he’ll risk throwing away the pink jersey to chase down an attack from someone three minutes down on GC unless it’s really necessary, which is why I like Esteban Chaves a bit better for this stage. The Colombian has been very strong the past two weeks and this is his terrain. The same could be said for Ilnur Zakarin, another rider who will likely get a bit of room to roam.

Alejandro Valverde looks much better than he did a week ago as well. He’s a candidate for the victory, and so is Vincenzo Nibali. The former Giro winner hasn’t shown the kind of form we’d expected of him at the start of the race, but he’s always a threat.

It’s never easy to predict a breakaway winner but a few strong candidates have emerged over the course of the Giro. Mikel Nieve, Nicolas Roche, David López, Darwin Atapuma, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Alessandro De Marchi, Giovanni Visconti, and Joe Dombrowski are other potential stage winners.

VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

1. Esteban Chaves | 2. Steven Kruijswijk | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 27, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Muggió › Pinerolo – 240km

The 18th stage of the Giro has an “in-betweener” sort of profile that could go a few different ways. Everything will come down to the day’s lone categorized challenge, the Cat. 2 Pramartino climb. 4.65 kilometers at 10.5%, it is absolutely hard enough to break up the general classification. Alternatively, we could see an armistice among the overall contenders while the punchy stage hunters jump clear of the bunch. Or maybe all the attackers will be reeled in before the finish, leading to a reduced sprint. Or we could see an early break take the stage.

I’m inclined to think this comes down to the peloton, especially since one team with a GC contender happens to have the best overall candidate for the win—that would, of course, be Movistar and Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard can win with an attack on the climb or in a sprint, and he’s looking strong again after a bad day in the mountains last week.

Diego Ulissi is the other top name for this stage, and he brings another option to the table: the breakaway win. Like Valverde, he’s got the punch to thrive here, though he’s maybe a bit less likely to thrive on the climb.

The list of riders who could win this from the break includes: Tim Wellens (who I would have named as my pick before Ulissi and Valverde rode so well in Stage 16), Nicolas Roche, Giovanni Visconti, Gianluca Brambilla, Moreno Moser, and Sonny Colbrelli.

It’d be pretty surprising to see any of the GC contenders not named Alejandro Valverde crossing the line first in this stage, but a long-range attack from Esteban Chaves or Vincenzo Nibali, or even from the impressive race leader Steven Kruijswijk, would not be out of the question.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Tim Wellens

May 26, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Molveno › Cassano D’Adda – 196km

The Giro’s 17th stage looks like a perfect one for the sprinters. After a Cat. 4 climb midway through the day, there are almost 100 kilometers of gently downhill or flat roads. If this were the first stage of the race, there would be no question about the outcome—however it’s not the first week.

André Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Arnaud Démare, Elia Viviani, and Caleb have all abandoned the Giro, leaving very few quick men left to challenge for the stage. On the one hand, Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo are probably happy to have reduced competition. On the other hand, that leaves just Trek and Lampre to do the work in the bunch to chase down the early break.

Should they be able to keep this under control, I like Nizzolo’s chances. It’s a tricky sprint with some corners, and Nizzolo has looked good so far in the race. Modolo is a strong contender as well, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all for him to best Nizzolo, as he’s already done is several times in his career—including twice in last year’s race.

It’d be a surprise for any other sprinter to win here, but outsiders include Matteo Trentin, Alexander Porsev, Ramunas Navardauskas, Heinrich Haussler, and Kristian Sbaragli.

It’s anyone’s guess who would win this from a breakaway, as an early escape on this type of stage is as much a question of chance as anything. Daniel Oss, Adam Hansen, JJ Rojas, Stefan Küng, and Lars Bak are among the potential protagonists for a long-range victory.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Matteo Trentin

May 25, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Bressanone › Andalo – 132km

The Giro peloton gets back to racing after a much-needed day off with a stage that could see more gaps on GC—but will likely be more of a breakaway battleground than anything.

The climbs aren’t easy, and the first two in particular seem to be rated rather modestly. The first climb has an uphill run-up—all told, the riders will be ascending for the better part of 20km at an average gradient of over 5%. That’s pretty hard for a Cat. 2. The next climb is also given a rating that might have riders underestimating it. More than 10km at over 7%, it’s enough to spur attacks.

All that said, the stage ends with a Cat. 3 that flattens out at the top, which could have the overall contenders hesitant about setting their teams to work. At least in terms of the stage battle, I think the early escapees will have good chance at the win.

That makes predicting Stage 16 quite hard, but I’ll toss a few names out there. Mikel Nieve is one—he’s a great climber with freedom to hunt stage wins, and that’s already netted him one victory in this race. His Sky teammate David López could be in the mix as well.

Darwin Atapuma and Alessandro De Marchi make a nice duo of potential breakers for BMC. Atapuma looks great right now.

Giovanni Visconti would be a terrific pick for this stage, but it could be all hands on deck for Valverde at Movistar right now. If he does get into the breakaway, however, he’s got a great chance.

Tim Wellens and Diego Ulissi are both excellent candidates for the stage win because they could conceivably win this from the break or the peloton. The same is true of Gianluca Brambilla.

Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favorite if this does come down to the bunch, given his speedy finishing kick. Esteban Chaves, Vincenzo Nibali, and Steven Kruijswijk are other potential winners, though it will take a pretty strong attack to make that happen with this finale.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Mikel Nieve | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 24, 2016