Tag: Predictions

Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Vitoria › Alto Campoo – 215km

After two comparatively easy days, the Vuelta a España peloton returns to the mountains for Stage 14.

It’s a long one at 215 total kilometers, and though it opens with 80km without categorized climbs, things get pretty tricky after that.

At around kilometer 80 the road angles upward gently for 27 long kilometers into the foot of the first categorized climb of the stage, the Cat. 3 Puerto Estacas de Trueba. Officially the climb is only 11km at 2.9%, but taken with the uphill stretch prior to the categorized section it’s nearly 40km of climbing. The average gradient across that entire span may be less than 2% but that is still a very long time to be going upward.

The Cat. 3 summit is followed by a fast descent into the foot of a Cat. 1, the 11.5km Puerto del Escudo. The average gradient of 6.4% doesn’t really tell the whole story—the first 4km are not very steep but then the road kicks into the double digits for several prolonged stretches.

From the top of the Cat. 1 the riders will take a very brief downhill and then a long flat stretch before starting the final climb, the special-category 18km Alto Campoo, which has an average gradient of 5.5%. Again, the early slopes are relatively easy but the climb gets harder as it goes on.

Stage 14 is very long, and the three categorized climbs will be tough enough to put plenty of hurt into the legs. The profile, as with any mountainous profile, will give the breakaway a chance, especially if the GC riders are less inclined to ride a hard tempo with two more mountain stages ahead. On the other hand, the pace in the pack is likely to pick up on that long late flat section in preparation for a long final climb, which could doom a move up the road. With a few stages that could appeal more to the breakaway coming up, some long-range specialists could opt to keep the powder dry.

Among the GC riders in the race, Fabio Aru looks the strongest right now, and his team packs serious punch. If Aru wants to gain time on his rivals, he should be able to pull it off, as he’s just looked that good so far. However, with the overall victory very much in his reach, Aru could be focused entirely on the two riders within a minute of his lead, and that could open the door for others.

Rafal Majka has looked strong on every summit finish of the Vuelta so far. He’s currently sitting 4th overall, and while his deficit to Aru is not so great that Astana will just let him get up the road without a thought, he may be able to land an attack if there is any hesitation while Aru watches those closer to his lead. This is a great finishing climb for Majka, who might be just a bit behind some of the top GC men on the extreme gradients, but who is excellent in a sustained attack from a few kilometers out.

Joaquím Rodríguez needs to get moving if he wants to have a chance at winning the overall Vuelta title. Currently 2nd overall, this may be the best chance he’s going to get at a Grand Tour victory for the rest of his career. He has looked strong so far, though not dominant. He’s the most explosive rider within striking distance of the overall title, though, and if he can team up with Daniel Moreno to launch a move on this final climb, he’s got a shot at stage success.

Esteban Chaves, a bit further down on GC now, should have plenty of freedom to go hunting for another stage win. Alejandro Valverde has not looked at his best in the past few stages, but if he can recover some strength, he’s an obvious candidate for stage success now that he, too, is less of a GC threat. Movistar will want to do everything possible to get another stage win out of the Vuelta with sickness laying Nairo Quintana low.

Mikel Nieve is Sky’s best hope of coming away from the Vuelta with a result and he should get some breathing room. This climb suits him well.

It’s going to take a strong climber to win this stage from a breakaway, but there are a few good candidates for a successful long-range attack on Stage 14. Rodolfo Torres, Fabio Duarte, Giovanni Visconti, Andrey Amador, Vasil Kiryienka, and Darwin Atapuma are among the riders who could have a chance in that scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Rafal Majka | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14.

September 4, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Calatayud › Tarazona – 178km

As the Vuelta gets lumpier and lumpier, we can probably start to expect more and more breakaway victories. Stage 13 is a great place for the long-range hopefuls to get on track for the week ahead.

Things open with a bit of up-and-down before an uphill run-in into a Cat. 3. Officially the climb is only 8.2km but by the time the riders reach the top they will have been ascending for over 18km at a low gradient. After a quick downhill comes a relatively easy Cat. 1, 10.9km at a bit under 5%. From there the road heads downward again for nearly 50km before things flatten out for a short stretch.

The final categorized climb, a Cat. 3 of 8.5km at 4.5%, officially peaks at a little over 30km before the finish. The road still angles upward slightly for a few more kilometers, but then it’s a long downhill run that only evens out inside the final 10km.

There is another small bump that starts with a little under 2.5km left in the stage, but the road flattens out near the flamme rouge for a relatively straightforward finale.

None of the climbs on Stage 13 are particularly difficult, but it’s hard to see the peloton reeling in the early move: the up-and-down profile will make things hard to control, and the stage is too easy to entice the GC teams to contribute to pushing the pace. The sprinters will have a chance on Stage 13, but it seems much more likely that this one will go down to the breakaway specialists.

As such, there are no real “favorites” for the stage, only riders who seem like good candidates for a win from afar.

Europcar is usually pretty adept at getting riders into breakaways, and they have multiple options in the Vuelta. The challenge will be turning opportunities into success, which they haven’t achieved much of this year. On ability, Cyril Gautier should be their top choice on this profile. He’s got good climbing legs and packs some punch for a late escape or a reduced sprint. Still, it’s difficult to predict whether he’ll even try to get in the move at all. Romain Sicard and Jerome Cousin have been very active for Europcar in this Vuelta and they may get the nod to go up the road instead.

Niki Terpstra has tried his luck with a few escape attempts so far in the Vuelta, and this profile should him more than many of the those that remain. He’s not the world’s greatest climber but he’s got plenty of pop and excellent soloing ability. Young Spaniard Carlos Verona is another option for Etixx-QuickStep.

After a rough outing on Stage 11, Movistar is probably looking to get more active in the breakaway game. Giovanni Visconti is an excellent option for this stage, with just the right skillset for the profile, and he’ll be among the favorites if he can get into the breakaway.

Adam Hansen has been a little bit quieter than expected in the breakaway game up to this point in the race, but Stage 13 suits him well. He’d probably prefer a more techincal run-in though.

Alessandro De Marchi has been quiet all season, but he has finally started to show some interest in getting active. He could be BMC’s best option, as these climbs may not be challenging enough to appeal to Darwin Atapuma or Samuel Sánchez.

Caja Rural will almost certainly send someone up the road, but it’s hard to say who it will be. Omar Fraile has been very active off the front sweeping up KOM points but now that he has a big lead in that classification, the team may be more interested in a stage win. Pello Bilbao and José Goncalves, both of whom have looked particularly good this year, are their best options to pull that off.

Miguel Angel Rubio was Colombia’s breakaway man on Stage 12, which could mean someone else makes the attempt on Stage 13. Carlos Quintero has been active so far. Rubén Plaza, who has been riding well since June, and Kristijan Durasek, who does have a bit of speed for a fast finish, give Lampre-Merida a pair of strong options. Stephen Cummings, AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini and Blel Kadri, Cannondale-Garmin’s Alex Howes and Ben King, and Sylvain Chavanel are other riders on the list of potential long-range candidates for Stage 13 success.

In the (unlikely) event that this does come down to a sprint, John Degenkolb is the favorite, despite his lack of wins so far, while Tosh Van der Sande, José Joaquín Rojas, Danny Van Poppel, and Kristian Sbaragli will also probably be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Cyril Gautier | 2. Niki Terpstra | 3. José Goncalves

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13.

September 3, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Escaldes-Engordany › Lleida – 173km

After a brutal day in the mountains, the Vuelta will show mercy to the peloton with a less vicious Stage 12.

The first 35km of the stage are downhill. Then comes the only categorized climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Coll de Bóixols, 15.8km at a little over 5%. It’s not an easy climb but coming as early in the stage as it does, it probably won’t inflict too much damage on the bunch. From the top the stage is downhill or flat for almost the rest of the day. The final half-kilometer does angle upwards somewhat, but at a gradient of less than 4%.

The profile shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for the sprinters still in the peloton, and with so few opportunities for bunch finishes in this Vuelta, we can expect the sprinters’ teams to put in a lot of effort keeping the early breakaway on a tight leash. Plus, Stage 13 is a perfect stage for the breakaway, and that could see some of the top long-range protagonists keeping their powder dry for a day.

In the likely sprint scenario, John Degenkolb is the clear favorite in terms of peak ability, and despite having not yet won a stage in the Vuelta a España, he does look pretty good in the form department, if not at 100%. He nearly won Stage 10 despite having horrible positioning in the final 500 meters, and now that Giant-Alpecin will be less focused on Tom Dumoulin (who no longer holds the red jersey), Degenkolb should get a better leadout for the sprint. Barring a crash, it’s hard to see anyone beating Degenkolb here.

Kristian Sbaragli will certainly try, and will come into this stage bolstered by the fact that he’s already bested Degenkolb once in the race. It would be a pretty big surprise if he can double up, as Degenkolb is significantly quicker in a headsup battle, and there are others who can probably match Sbaragli as well if they can position themselves a bit better this time around.

One of those riders is José Joaquín Rojas. He couldn’t best Sbaragli on Stage 10, but the Italian veered in his direction in the finale of that sprint, making it much harder for the Spaniard to come around—so I’m not sure how great of a marker that performance was. I expect Rojas to place very highly here, and the slight gradient at the finish should suit him.

Tosh Van der Sande has looked strong so far in the race, and managed to come in 4th on Stage 10 after opening his sprint far too early. He could challenge again here. Jean-Pierre Drucker should be in the mix as well.

Danny Van Poppel is lacking in the versatility department and has not featured yet in the sprints at the Vuelta, but he should be able to hang on to contest the sprint here, and will have a nice shot at a stage win against this field.

José Goncalvez, Carlos Barbero, Maximiliano Richeze, Daniele Bennati are others with a chance at Stage 12 success.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Kristian Sbaragli | 3. José Joaquín Rojas

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 12.

September 2, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Andorra la Valle › Cortals d’Encamp – 138km

The Vuelta a España visits Andorra for Stage 11, and some are calling it the hardest Vuelta stage ever. I haven’t reviewed every Vuelta stage since 1935 to really get a clear, definitive sense of whether that’s true, but it’s certainly going to be really, really hard.

It’s actually a very short stage at just 138km, and none of the climbs are longer than 12km. It’s the steepness and unceasing nature of the climbs that makes this stage such a challenge: from the moment they leave the start line until they cross the finish line, the riders will be ascending vicious uphill gradients or flying down harrowing descents.

The first half of the stage is composed of a trio of Cat. 1s, all of them followed by technical, steep downhills. Then comes the special-category Collada de la Gallina, 11.7km at 8.5%, after which the pack will descend on a gradient about as steep as the one they just climbed.

That quartet of brutal tests would be enough for most mountain stages, but the Vuelta’s 11th stage concludes with a leg-breaking one-two punch. First it’s the Cat. 2 Alto de la Comella, 4km at a whopping 9.5%, and after a quick descent it’s an uncategorized uphill run into the Cat. 1 finishing climb.

Stage 11 finally comes to an end atop the Alto Els Cortals d’Encamp, 8.7km at a 9.1% average gradient.

The Alto Els Cortals d’Encamp is a pretty regular climb—but it’s 8.7km at an average of 9.1%. Taking on two climbs of over 9% in such quick succession after such a tough day will probably see several big names see their GC campaigns go up in flames—there is just no way that everyone makes it up super-steep gradients unscathed.

On such a short stage, the pace is going to be high. In terms of trying to predict who will come out on top on this brutal day in Andorra, it’s already hard enough drawing conclusions from the earlier climbing stages in the race (which really can’t compare to this one), but the fact that this profile is pretty breakaway-friendly will further complicate things. However, this early queen stage will be a good opportunity for anyone who is feeling strong to make a huge statement in the GC fight, so we could see the top favorites testing each other early, and that will make it tough for a breakaway (as will the brutal finishing climb). That being the case, I see the top GC riders as better stage candidates than any individual breakaway candidates, especially since none of the long-range specialists have really established themselves just yet in this Vuelta.

Fabio Aru was the strongest rider on Stage 7 and among the strongest on Stage 9. I’d like his chances better if Vincenzo Nibali were still in the race, and if Mikel Landa were still a GC threat that could potentially go up the road and force others to chase, but Aru should still be a great pick for Stage 11. The final climb suits him well, brutally steep and long enough that he’ll really have a chance to launch a move from a little ways out as is his custom. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of his rivals were watching each other instead of him, giving him a chance to get up the road. The aforementioned Mikel Landa could have a chance as well if the team decides to let him go stagehunting.

Chris Froome did not look good on Stage 7 but came roaring back on Stage 9, suggesting that he’s starting to come around. This isn’t the sort of stage that screams Sky Train, but I think it’s sort of a misconception that Froome can only handle long, low-gradient climbs. He’s among the best in the world on the steep stuff, too, and he’s got more punch than people realize. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him tapping out his own pace early on the final climb only to leave his rivals behind in the finale. Nicolas Roche and Mikel Nieve have looked strong as well, and Sky, a squad that seems to understanding how little benefit there is to be gained from riding in a group on this gradients, will probably green light attacks if either is feeling good.

36-years-old or no, Joaquím Rodríguez has looked unflappable thus far in the Vuelta. He’s played things far more conservatively than expected, but he has also managed to stay right up there on all the important stages in the race. This stage might be a little too hard for the Spanish veteran, but if he can survive until the finale he’ll have a great place to go on the move. He’s a public proponent of Andorran cycling, and will be highly motivated to get something out of this one.

Nairo Quintana suffered a bit in the heat in the first week, but the Vuelta a España is entering cooler territory—and Quintana appears to be heating up. He’ll appreciate the consistently high gradients. Meanwhile, teammate Alejandro Valverde did not look quite as strong on Stage 9 as he had earlier in the week, so it could be Quintana’s time to make a statement.

Rafal Majka finished 5th on Stage 9 and probably has some intention of getting active here on Stage 11. While this profile will be a challenge, he should be fresher than many of the top climbers in the race, having ridden the Tour as a domestique and stagehunter instead of as a GC contender.

As amazing as Tom Dumoulin has been, I have a hard time seeing him staying in touch with the big climbing favorites on Stage 11. He can’t be ruled out, as he has defied expectation so far, but it would be a huge surprise. Esteban Chaves, on the other hand, should actually be pretty well-suited to the finishing climb, if he can recover from a bad day on Stage 9. Domenico Pozzovivo hasn’t been stellar in the Vuelta just yet, but if he can work his way into shape he should be able to get into the mix on this stage.

If the favorites are hesitant to put each other under pressure on this brutal stage, it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see someone sneak clear and win this stage from a breakaway. Stage 11 will have huge implications for the King of the Mountains Classification, so anyone with long-term KOM aspirations would do well to jump into the move.

We don’t have much to go on yet in terms of clear markers of climbing form from the long-ranges specialists, but Samuel Sánchez, Cyril Gautier, Jerome Cousin, Omar Fraile, José Goncalvez, Fabio Duarte, Rodolfo Torres, Daniel Navarro, Bart De Clercq, Gianluca Brambilla, Pierre Rolland, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck are all on the long list of riders with potential to play a role from afar on Stage 11.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Fabio Aru | 2. Joaquím Rodríguez | 3. Nairo Quintana

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 11.

September 1, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Torrevieja › Benitatxell – 168.3km

The Vuelta takes on another GC-oriented stage in its ninth day. Most of the relatively short stage is flat, but things get a bit more difficult in the final 50km. A Cat. 2 trip up the Alto de Puig Llorenca comes first, 3.3km at a steep 8.9%. Then comes a steep descent, followed by a more gentle stretch of downhill that extends for over 20km to the intermediate sprint at kilometer 155. Afterward comes a small uncategorized bump, another steep descent, and then the second trip up the Puig Llorenca, from a different side this time. The average gradient is again 8.9%, but it’s a 4.1km journey to the finish line at the top. A particularly brutal stretch of 19% awaits right in the middle of the climb, and the final few hundred meters hit the double digits again.

At just 4.1 kilometers long, the finishing climb is not exactly the Stelvio, but its vicious gradients will make for an explosive challenge. Now that Stage 7 has offered a glimpse of what’s what in this GC showdown, the stronger riders could seize the opportunity to put their rivals into the red zone on the extreme slope.

After a challenging, hot first week, and with an escapee-friendly profile, Stage 9 could appeal to the breakaway specialists. The usual favorites among the GC men haven’t exactly shown a great deal of interest in fighting for stage wins. However, none of the marquee climbers have fallen too far out of contention just yet in this Vuelta, and it will take a pretty strong group to survive if the peloton does ramp up the pace in preparation for the final climb, so it’s hard to see any individual breakaway candidates as top favorites over the heavy hitters in the red jersey battle.

The short but brutally steep climb should suit Joaquim Rodríguez. Based on his skillset, he has to be seen as a favorite. However, Rodríguez has been very conservative so far in the race, and that makes it harder to view him as anything close to a consensus top pick for the stage. He can’t expect to hesitate his way to a stage win, or a Vuelta win for that matter. If he goes on the move, he’ll be deadly. The same is true for Katusha teammate Daniel Moreno.

Fabio Aru was the strongest rider on Stage 7, opening up a significant gap on his rivals when he launched his move on the final climb. Unlike Rodríguez, he took risks on that stage, and he might be looking to do so again here. This climb doesn’t suit him all that well compared to a few of the extremely explosive climbers on the startlist, but I think he’s strong enough to win anyway. Mikel Landa makes for a fine alternative for Astana.

Esteban Chaves has shown already in this Vuelta that this sort of climb suits him well. Getting into the second week of the race, Chaves is entering unknown territory, but he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down yet, and he could find himself in the mix again on Stage 9.

Alejandro Valverde has looked strong so far in the Vuelta, but maybe not at peak form. He also isn’t particularly keen on jumping clear of the pack, which he’ll probably need to do to win this stage. Still he’s always a danger, as is Nairo Quintana, who could light up this race at any minute once he starts getting back to his best.

Domenico Pozzovivo should find the terrain to his liking, and after a slow start he looks to be getting stronger. Unlike most of the other red jersey hopefuls, Pozzovivo doesn’t have a Grand Tour in his legs, and could find himself feeling a lot fresher than his rivals. He also might get a bit of leeway if he goes on the attack, as the likes of Movistar and Katusha look at each other instead of anyone else.

Nicolas Roche will find this gradient extreme, but he has looked good so far, as has Sky teammate Mikel Nieve. I’m not ready to write Chris Froome off yet either, though I still probably won’t write him off even if he loses ground on this stage, for that matter, as I think he’s riding himself back into form at the moment.

Rafal Majka, Samuel Sánchez, and Louis Meintjes are others to watch on the final climb.

If the GC favorites don’t feel like putting their teams to work chasing down escapees, Pello Bilbao, Rodolfo Torres, Fabio Duarte, Gianluca Brambilla, Alessandro De Marchi, Bart De Clercq, Daniel Navarro, and Cyril Gautier are among the many riders who could find success in the early break or with a late strike.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Fabio Aru | 2. Joaquim Rodríguez | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 9. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here. Also, don’t miss the latest Recon Ride, which covers all the big storylines ahead of Sunday GP Ouest-France.

August 29, 2015
GP Ouest-France 2015 Preview

The WorldTour heads to the Brittany region this weekend for the GP Ouest France. The hilly circuit race is often known by its former name, the GP Plouay, or simply as “Plouay,” the small Breton town where the race starts and finishes (the most recent Recon Ride episode covers this topic, among many others, in depth). Though the event may garner a bit less attention than the concurrently-running Vuelta, it is almost always an exciting race that draws a very impressive startlist, in no small part thanks to its appeal as a stepping stone to Worlds.

The Route

The 229.1km GP Ouest-France takes on the same terrain many times over, via eight laps on a 26.9km circuit and then a single lap on a reduced circuit of 13.9 kilometers.

Each of the long laps opens with a climb of the Côte du Lezot, a little over a kilometer in length and with much of that distance at a gradient in the realm of 6%. From the top, it’s a descent followed by a long gentle ascent up to the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois. After a flat section and then a quick downhill run, the pack will take on the Côte de Ty Marrec, only about a kilometer in length but with a long stretch in the middle nearing 10%.

The final lap of the GP Ouest-France hits both of the major climbs of the longer circuit, with less ground to cover between the two challenges.

The shortened final lap will still look quite familiar, but with much less distance between the two harder climbs. The less challenging trip to the the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois will not be a part of the last lap, which cuts out almost half the distance of the full lap, thereby bringing the ascents of the Côte du Lezot and the Côte de Ty Marrec closer together. From the top of the Ty Marrec it’s a gentle downhill run of about 3km to the finish line.

The Contenders

The GP Ouest-France parcours is deftly balanced in such a way that it’s never quite clear until the final moments of the race whether a late attacker or the sprinters will reign supreme. The course isn’t so hard as to automatically drop the fast finishers from contention, but the Côte de Ty Marrec comes late enough (in a day that is long and challenging enough as it is) to give the aggressive riders a chance at jumping clear of the pack and holding out for victory. In any case, thanks to the flatter finish, a strong sprint is a pretty helpful asset—whether the race comes down to a bunch kick or a small group, anyone hoping to win this race would do well to have some speed.

Greg Van Avermaet has the endurance to come into the finale fresh, the climbing legs and explosiveness to make or join or late move, and the finishing kick to win a reduced sprint. This is a wide open race, but he’s got to be among the top favorites for his versatility. His top-end speed, in particular, has improved over the past few years, to the point where he’s capable of winning a sprint even against specialists on a good day. He’s also got excellent form, having landed 2nd overall in the Eneco Tour. BMC has plenty of other cards to play in this race as well, with talents aplenty to potentially launch constant attacks every time the opportunities present themselves. Philippe Gilbert looks strong right now and is an obvious candidate to go on the move on the climbs, Ben Hermans is on the form of his life and was 7th in this race last year, and Dylan Teuns and Silvan Dillier are even further options for the Belgian squad.

Should a larger group make it to the finish, two riders stand out above the rest as favorites. The first is the rider who won the bunch sprint behind the winning move in last year’s race. Alexander Kristoff can handle a tough course, he’s among the fastest riders on the startlist, and looks to be in good form right now. Giacomo Nizzolo, who was next in line behind Kristoff last year, hasn’t had much luck beating the Norwegian in the past, but this race is a major target for Nizzolo (something he talked about in more detail in the latest Recon Ride) and the potentially messy sprint finale suits him very well. He was runner-up in 2013 to Filippo Pozzato, and has improved his kick since then. Fabio Felline gives Trek a nice alternative.

Etixx-QuickStep, as might be expected for a one-day race, brings a squad full of contenders. Julian Alaphilippe made the Top 10 in 2014 and seems best suited, with strong climbing legs and a fast finish in a reduced kick. Tom Boonen will be the sprinter of choice if this comes down to a bunch gallop, not a bad option to fall back on seeing as he’s on blazing form right now. Tony Martin and Stijn Vandenbergh are others with a shot.

Not to be outdone in the Belgian WorldTour team department, Lotto-Soudal also has options. Tim Wellens, fresh over a convincing Eneco Tour win, may be the most obvious candidate. He certainly has the skillset to thrive here. However, his biggest career successes have come when he has been able to rely on the element of surprise—he’s won the Eneco Tour twice in a row now after showing little in the way of form coming into that race. Whether he can still thrive when all eyes are on him is another matter. If not, Jurgen Roelandts may be the best option: he has actually made the Top 10 in this race three years in a row, and has shown great form this season. Tony Gallopin is another card to play. Jens Debuscherre and Tiesj Benoot are others to watch.

LottoNL-Jumbo doesn’t have quite the team firepower as the aforementioned squads but Sep Vanmarcke is on blazing form and just the sort of rider who might be able to nab a win after a long day of up and down in Plouay. He’s not bad in a sprint, and he’s highly motivated to get something out of a 2015 that has been somewhat disappointing. Moreno Hofland is the main option for the team if the race comes down to a big bunch kick.

Rui Costa was runner-up in 2012 and certainly has the aggressive style to take a win in this race, though he might not be back to 100% after a difficult Tour de France. Diego Ulissi and Davide Cimolai make fine alternatives for Lampre-Merida.

Marcel Kittel certainly deserves a mention as the fastest pure sprinter on the startlist, but it will be extremely difficult for him to make it all the way to the line given his general inability to handle uphill gradients. Sky’s duo of Elia Viviani and Ben Swift, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, OGE’s Michael Albasini, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, Astana’s Borut Bozic, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler will be among the other fast finishers who will hope to hold out for a bunch kick.

Given the parcours and the race history, the list of outsiders who could have a chance with a late attack could encompass the entire roster of riders making the start, but to name just a few: Simon Yates, Ramunas Navardauskas, a strong AG2R tandem of Romain Bardet and Alexis Vuillermoz, Andrea Fedi, Tommy Voeckler, and Arthur Vichot are among the many riders who might be worth keeping an eye on when the peloton approaches the final climb of the Côte de Ty Marrec.

Lastly, VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar contender for the GP Ouest-France: Rasmus Guldhammer of Cult Energy. Guldhammer was 10th in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, showing off his sprinting ability against far more familiar quick men, but he’s also got the climbing chops to survive this parcours. In a reduced field, the former U23 Liège-Bastogne-Liège winner could put up a serious fight for the victory in Plouay.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Giacomo Nizzolo
Other Top Contenders: Philippe Gilbert, Julian Alaphilippe, Tom Boonen, Jurgen Roelandts, Tim Wellens, Sep Vanmarcke, Arnaud Démare

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and don’t forget to check out the Recon Ride’s GP Ouest-France pre-rance show!

August 29, 2015