Stage 2: Alhaurín de la Torre › Caminito del Rey – 158.7km
After a strange opening TTT without GC implications, the Vuelta a España kicks off in earnest on Sunday’s Stage 2.
At 158.7 kilometers, Stage 2 is a short one, but a sting in the tail will bring the GC riders to the fore, which is rather unusual for such an early stage in a three-week race. The day finishes with a 4.7km climb at an average gradient over 6%, with a few steeper sections near the finish. It’s not L’Angliru, but it won’t be a cake walk either, especially this early in the race before many riders have gotten acclimated to the pace of a Grand Tour.
Without any separation on the GC leaderboard as of yet, the peloton will probably drive a hard pace to keep the break on a short leash, though it remains to be seen just which teams will do the work. The shortness of the stage should only increase the speed in the peloton. It’s likely that the pack will hit the final climb at a dogged pace, which could blunt any long-range moves. However, on the slopes of the ascent to the finish, things could change dramatically. Any hesitation could see an attack go clear on the steep stuff. In the event that that doesn’t happen, a strong finishing kick will come in handy, as the final few hundred meters do even out a bit.
Dan Martin is a specialist in this sort of finish, and delivered multiple near misses on similar late climbs in last month’s Tour de France. It’s been a disappointing year for Martin, but he’s shown strong form at times, and should be in the mix here in the Vuelta’s Stage 2. The fact that the top GC favorites probably won’t see him as too much of an overall threat could give him an edge should he try for an attack from a little ways out, and he also happens to have great finishing speed for a sprint should that be necessary. He has lived in Spain for some time now, and tends to do pretty well in his adopted home country, having taken his first Grand Tour stage win at the Vuelta back in 2011. In-form teammate Joe Dombrowski is another strong option for Cannondale-Garmin.
Alejandro Valverde was brilliant in the first half of the season, and if he still has anything left in the tank after a tough Tour de France, he’ll be in the mix for this finish, which suits him very well. Of the top GC riders in the race, he is far and away the fastest in a reduced sprint. He probably won’t be given any breathing room to go on the move, but if Movistar can keep a lid on any late attacks (and they have a team capable of taking control of the race), Valverde will be hard to beat. This finish isn’t hard enough to really favor Nairo Quintana, but don’t count him out either—Quintana is a danger any time the road goes up.
Katusha’s one-two punch has a great chance at success on this stage. Joaquim Rodríguez should come into the stage ready for a showdown, and the finish suits him very well. Expect to see him teaming up with Daniel Moreno to try to set the tone for Katusha early on in this race. Both should be a bit fresher than many of the top climbers in this Vuelta; Moreno didn’t race the Tour at all, and Rodríguez played a stagehunting role there instead of fighting for a GC result.
Astana’s Fabio Aru should also bring plenty of freshness into this finish. He was already showing strong form in the Tour of Poland. If he pours all his energy into an attack on the final climb, he could get some separation. Teammates Vincenzo Nibali and Mikel Landa are obvious options as well.
This short climb isn’t the sort of test typically seen as preferred terrain for Chris Froome, but when he’s motivated, he’s almost impossible to keep down; don’t underestimate his chances. Still, Sergio Henao could be the best option for Sky. The Colombian is on great form, and he’s got some pop for a late move or a finishing sprint.
This finish is probably a bit hard for a Peter Sagan who is in Spain to build up form for Worlds, but he deserves a mention ahead of a stage that he might have a chance at on peak form. The same is true for Simon Gerrans, coming back from a collarbone injury.
Domenico Pozzovivo may find the climb a bit too short for his liking, but he’ll be among the freshest riders in the entire race, and he could get some breathing room for an attack if the top favorites start looking at each other. Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, Carlos Barbero, Pello Bilbao, Rafal Majka, Jelle Vanendert, Daniel Navarro, and Pierre Rolland are others who will have a shot at success on Stage 2.
VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites
1. Dan Martin | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodríguez
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 2. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.
Most of cycling’s biggest Grand Tour stars are in Spain for the Vuelta right now, but the cream of the sprinting crop will be in Germany on Sunday instead to take on the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The event, which almost always comes down to a bunch sprint in Hamburg, offers the fast finishers a rare opportunity to take a one-day win at the WorldTour level, though a bit of grit will come in handy at the end of a long day: hardman Alexander Kristoff won the race in 2014 with Giacomo Nizzolo and Simon Gerrans behind him, all three of them besting even Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish in the finishing sprint.
The Route
The race starts in Kiel, Germany and heads southward to Hamburg, where the route twists and turns through the city and its suburbs en route to the finish line after 221.3 kilometers. The terrain is not particularly challenging throughout, but it does include one moderately difficult climb taken a total of three times. The Waseberg, about 800 meters long with an average gradient of about 15%, usually inspires attacks and puts a few riders into difficulty, especially during the third and final ascent of the climb with about 15km to go, but in the past the race has usually come back together before the line for a (sometimes messy) sprint on a flat straightaway.
The Contenders
It’s hard to see this race coming down to anything other than a bunch kick, but at the end of 221 kilometers of racing and a probably-hectic chase to close down any late attackers, the likely sprint for Vattenfall Cyclassics glory will be a lot more than just a test of pure top-end spend. A sprint may be all but guaranteed, but predicting the winner won’t be easy.
Cycling’s “big three” sprinting stars are all making the start. Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel are in a class of their own in the pure speed department, and all three will have a chance in this race.
Greipel comes into Hamburg on the heels an excellent Tour de France, and despite his stellar July, motivation should still be high: this is Germany’s only WorldTour race, and Greipel has been on the podium a three times in the last five years without winning. At this stage in his career, he has developed the strength to handle some climbs and some distance (as evidenced by his strong work in the Classics this year), and should come into the likely sprint finish in good shape. The big question will be the potentially hectic finale. Greipel has historically struggled in challenging position battles. If he is not afraid to take a few risks, Greipel might finally nab the Vattenfall Cyclassics win he’s been looking for for years.
Marcel Kittel at peak form is probably the fastest sprinter in the world, but Kittel has not been on the level this year. This race is also considerably more difficult than he’d prefer—of the aforementioned trio of speedsters, Kittel is probably the least versatile, and could come to the finish gassed if he gets there at all. He was in the mix in the 2014 edition of the race, but could only manage a 6th-place finish. Still, he’s hungry to pick up as many results as possible after a disappointing for half of the year, and this is a prime opportunity, so he can’t be counted out.
Mark Cavendish did not come away with as many stage wins from the Tour de France as he would have liked, but he’s still had plenty of success so far this season. He was 5th in Hamburg last year, and isn’t afraid of a hectic finale even if it isn’t his forte. He will be a top favorite for the win if he can stay well-placed coming into the finale, while Tom Boonen and Julian Alaphilippe make for impressive alternatives for EQS.
In a battle of pure speed, Alexander Kristoff is a step behind the aforementioned trio of Cav, Greipel, and Kittel, but he can’t be underestimated in his attempted title defense—the one-day races are Kristoff’s territory, and he’s a proven winner in the Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’s also carrying strong form right now en route to a bid for glory at Worlds. Kristoff can beat anyone under the right conditions. There should be plenty of action on the final ascent of the Waseberg, forcing some selection and making for a stressful finale, which will suit the stoic Kristoff well.
Giacomo Nizzolo has made the podium twice in the last three editions of the race, earning runner-up honors in 2014. Hamburg is a very important goal of his; his typical season routine starts with a buildup to a peak at the Giro, and then concludes with a second run at high-level success in the late-season circuit races. The motivation is there, and Nizzolo is particularly effective in hectic finishes. He’s also quite handy after a long day on the bike. In short, the conditions are perfect for Nizzolo to succeed. Converting that into an actual victory though won’t be easy, given the startlist and Nizzolo’s propensity to come up just a hair short in the big races. He’ll need everything to go right to turn a podium performance into a win.
Arnaud Démare has not had nearly the year FDJ was expecting of him, but he did win this race in 2012 and it does suit his strengths. He’s got a shot. MTN-Qhubeka has a pair of former winners on the roster in Tyler Farrar (two times the winner of this race) and Edvald Boasson Hagen. Gerald Ciolek makes the start as well. It’s tough to say who the team will back, but Boasson Hagen has been in great form of late and will have a chance if the day is particularly hectic. Greg Van Avermaet of BMC would love that scenario: if the race is hard enough to put some of the sprinters into difficulty, he’ll have a shot in a reduced bunch kick. So will teammate Philippe Gilbert, and fellow Belgian Classics star Sep Vanmarcke of LottoNL-Jumbo. Vanmarcke is building up to a strong late-season peak again after a disappointing spring.
Sam Bennett, JJ Lobato, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Moreno Hofland, Andrea Guardini, Michael Albasini, and Niccolo Bonifazio are others with a shot at glory in Hamburg.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: André Greipel Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Mark Cavendish Other Top Contenders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Marcel Kittel, Greg Van Avermaet, JJ Lobato, Sam Bennett, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Elia Viviani
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s Vuelta a España stage previews—stage 2 of the Vuelta is running concurrently with the Vattenfall Cyclassics!
The 2015 Vuelta a España will get underway with one of the whackiest stages in race history thanks to an absurd course design and a last-minute UCI decision.
An opening team time trial of just 7.4 pancake-flat kilometers is odd enough, too short to really have any GC impact whatsoever, but the route includes a few unique challenges. Running along the vacationer-friendly Mediterranean coast from Puerto Banús to Marbella, the course involves stretches of packed dirt and sand and a narrow wooden bridge. Those peculiar obstacles caused plenty of consternation to riders putting in some course recon this week, spurring the UCI to call a meeting that ultimately deemed the TTT parcours too dangerous to count towards the General Classifiation. And so, just one day before the start of the Vuelta, the decision has been made to neutralize the opening stage in terms of the GC, leaving only a stage win and position in the team classification up for grabs.
Obviously, that dramatically changes the prediction picture, as any teams with GC aspirations now have little motivation to take any risks on the absurd course. A few of the top overall contenders lead strong TTT squads, but it’s hard to see them putting in the effort to contend for a stage win on the sand.
Instead, this should come down to the teams without GC candidates on the roster. Trek Factory Racing is among the front-runners. Fabian Cancellara leads a squad packed with fast finishers, and over a course of just 7.4km, sprinter speed will come in handy. Without a top GC favorite to shepherd over the whacky parcours, Trek will be hard to beat.
Giant-Alpecin should thrive for the same reasons as Trek—time trialing star Tom Dumoulin will lead the squad, with high-octane John Degenkolb and Luka Mezgec providing firepower over the very short course.
Orica-GreenEdge may have a shot, with a few time trialing specialists and a few fast finishers making the start. OGE always outperforms the sum of its parts in team time trials, and the team has nothing to lose in this race.
Etixx-QuickStep doesn’t have many of its top talents against the clock making the start, but Niki Terpstra leads a team that does include a few decent TT men and no reason to take the course gingerly.
Tinkoff-Saxo has a collection of speedsters and big engines to put up a good ride if Rafal Majka’s GC aspirations don’t hold them back. Sky has the firepower to put in a challenge for the TTT victory, but it seems almost guaranteed that the British squad will ride this one without much urgency as Chris Froome is a contender for the overall Vuelta a España victory. The same goes for BMC and Movistar, who might otherwise have contended for the stage, but who will now likely keep the powder dry for a day with real GC implications.
VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites
1. Trek Factory Racing | 2. Giant-Alpecin | 3. Orica-GreenEdge
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for 2015 Vuelta analysis. The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 1. And if you haven’t already checked out the Recon Ride’s first of three Vuelta episodes, there’s no time like the present to start listening!
The youngest of the trio of legendary three-week races, the Vuelta a España tends to garner less attention than the Giro d’Italia or the Tour de France, but the past few editions of Spain’s biggest race have been must-watch cycling entertainment. The challenging route, the top-notch startlist, and the desperation for results always present at this part of the season should make for an epic final grand tour of 2015 (the perfect storm of factors likely contributing a thrilling Vuelta is just one of many topics covered in the Recon Ride’s Vuelta pre-race show by the way—you should definitely check it out).
The Route
This year’s Vuelta offers the variety of profiles to favor a well-rounded winner. After things open with a very short team time trial (short enough that it’s unlikely to make a difference for the GC battle), the race takes on an uphill finish (albeit only a Cat. 3) right away in Stage 2, which is a great way to set the tone for a challenging race.
Then come several days that look likely to favor the sprinters or puncheurs, until a likely GC showdown on Stage 7, which sees the first Cat. 1 finishing climb of the race. After a medium-difficulty day on Stage 8, the Vuelta will throw another Cat. 1 uphill finish at the pack on Stage 9. Then, it’s a stagehunter friendly Stage 10 and a long-awaited rest day after a whopping ten straight days of racing.
Any dreams of a stress-free return to racing after the day off will be squashed by the brutal Stage 11, which will throw one steep climb after another at the riders
Stage 11: Andorra la Vella › Cortals d´Encamp (138km) – The peloton will come back from the first rest day of the Vuelta to face a tough day in Andorra.
After such a difficult Stage 11, pair of more fast-finisher-friendly stages will give the GC men a chance to relax a bit, but climb-heavy Stages 14, 15, and especially 16 will bring them to the fore again.
The Stage 17 time trial will also be a critical day for the GC hopefuls.
Stage 17: Burgos › Burgos (38.7km) – A time trial favoring the big engines in the Vuelta’s final week will put the pure climbers under pressure.
A little under 40km and mostly flat, the ITT could deal a serious blow the GC campaign of anyone without strong time trialing ability.
Stages 18 and 19 look good for those with an aggressive streak who are not afraid to be active on the late climbs, before a Stage 20 that consists of four Cat. 1 ascents.
To close out the race, the sprinters will get one last chance on the final stage in and around Madrid.
The General Classification Contenders
Most of cycling’s top Grand Tour GC stars are making the Vuelta start this year, which should set up a thriller of an overall battle. Chris Froome, the 2015 yellow jersey winner himself, headlines the startlist. It’s pretty rare for a Tour winner to start the Vuelta, but Froome has come close here in the past and has some unfinished business to take care of.
It’s hard to say just how well the route suits him because the Chris Froome of 2015 is a different rider from the Chris Froome that won the 2013 Tour de France. That previous incarnation of Froome was an excellent time trialist who could take advantage of a long flat ITT against less chrono-savvy rivals. The Froome of the past two years, however, has been far less impressive against the clock. If Froome can get his time trial back on track, he could run away with this race. If he doesn’t, this will be a close fight, though Froome is still among the world’s very best climbers (something that often gets overlooked or underplayed by many observers) and can still win this race on pure climbing ability and a powerful team. Geraint Thomas and Nicolas Roche are back at Froome’s side. Sergio Henao could be the real star—he’s been prepping for this all season and he’s been sharp recently. He makes a fine alternative if Froome decides a few days into the Vuelta that he’s content with his Tour de France win and doesn’t need to fight for a second Grand Tour in 2015.
Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde were unable to wrest control of the Tour de France from Sky but they’ll have another opportunity here. The time trial won’t help the Movistar pair, but motivation to beat Froome will be pretty high, and a route filled with steep climbs will offer plenty of chances to launch a flurry of attacks to keep the pressure on. Quintana is the better overall rider at this point and if his motivation is there he could challenge for the win with help from Valverde. If Quintana isn’t coming in at 100%, Valverde will likely be in the mix on his own, though winning the Vuelta against this caliber of rivals would be a tall order. Andrey Amador is another card to play on a strong Movistar squad.
In terms of depth, Astana’s trio of Fabio Aru, Mikel Landa, and VincenzoNibali headline the strongest GC squad in recent memory. Aru is probably the team’s best hope, having been preparing for this race since his runner-up performance in the Giro. He’ll love all the opportunities to break clear of his rivals on the tough climbs of the race, and he’ll probably be a bit fresher with more of a time cushion since his last Grand Tour appearance than those who raced the Tour. Meanwhile, Nibali will be motivated to prove something in this race after a disappointing Tour de France. He’s not afraid to get aggressive and if he is in better shape for this race, he’ll be up there. Landa is the wildcard—he has said he is targeting stages, and a long flat time trial does not suit him in the slightest, but he showed flashes of incredible climbing ability in the Giro and Astana’s multifaceted approach could see him steal a huge chunk of time if he can launch an unanswered move somewhere along the way. It would be pretty surprising if Astana didn’t land at least one rider on the Vuelta podium.
Joaquim Rodríguez will have his work cut out for him taking on such a list of stars in this Vuelta, but he did not have to expend nearly as much energy in the Tour as his other Vuelta GC rivals—his stagehunting focus allowed him to take days off in the mountains. Daniel Moreno will serve as a valuable second.
Rafal Majka leads the Tinkoff-Saxo charge. He should put in a good Vuelta campaign—he has developed into a well-rounded rider who isn’t afraid of a time trial, and like Rodríguez he should be a bit fresher than Froome or Quintana.
Speaking of freshness, Domenico Pozzovivo probably stands the best chance of being the rider to keep one recent Vuelta streak alive: since 2011, the winner of the Vuelta a España has been a rider who did not complete either the Tour of the Giro earlier in the season. Freshness has been critical in recent years at the Vuelta, and Pozzovivo, who crashed out of the Giro early, has not put the same sort of wear and tear into his legs this season as many other ridres in this race. He’s also a specialist on the steep stuff, which the Vuelta has in spades. Expect a strong ride from Pozzovivo here.
BMC’s Tejay van Garderen will find himself in the same boat, hoping to benefit from the freshness of not having finished a Grand Tour yet this season, but it’s hard to say how he’ll fair. On the one hand, the Vuelta suits him more than the Tour did thanks to its long and flat time trial, where he is stronger than most of the top GC riders in this race. On the other hand, van Garderen’s Vuelta was a last minute decision to salvage something from the season after his disappointing Tour. If van Garderen is in shape and motivated, I’d expect to see him in the thick of the GC battle. If not, he’ll probably be out of it very quickly. Samuel Sánchez is a fine alternative for BMC, having put up plenty of strong Vuelta rides in the past.
Lotto-Soudal’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck has managed to put up several excellent time trial performances so far this season, and if he can bring that balanced approach into the Vuelta, he could prove to be a big surprise. Cannondale-Garmin’s duo of Andrew Talansky and Dan Martin should be capable of producing at least one contender for the Top 10 among them. Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro hasn’t done much this season but he tends to come alive in the Vuelta. Pierre Rolland rode a respectable Tour de France, nearly coming away with a stage win, and should be capable of another decent result here.
The Stagehunters
Without many pan-flat stages but plenty of days to suit the more versatile fast finishers, it’s no surprise that the Vuelta has drawn several riders who thrive in bunch kicks after harder days. Peter Sagan is an obvious member of that club, though his Vuelta form is a big question mark—last year he rode the Vuelta purely to prep for Worlds, and mostly stayed under the radar. John Degenkolb also makes the start, hopefully with the same interest he showed last year (when he won four stages and the Points Classification) and not an approach entirely centered on his own Worlds campaign. Nacer Bouhanni can handle a climb or two and should be able to nab multiple wins if the form is there for this race—the motivation should certainly be there near the end of a disappointing season. Caleb Ewan, JJ Rojas, Matteo Pelucchi, and Danny Van Poppel are other speedsters to keep an eye on at the Vuelta.
Tom Dumoulin and Fabian Cancellara are obvious favorites for the long, flat time trial in the third week. Simon Gerrans, Alessandro De Marchi, Sylvain Chavanel, Carlos Barbero and Pello Bilbao will be among the riders hoping to do some damage on the intermediate stages, while the likes of Fabio Duarte, Amets Txurruka, and Joe Dombrowski could be on the hunt for breakaway wins in the high mountains.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites
GC Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Fabio Aru, Nairo Quintana Other Top Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodríguez, Vincenzo Nibali, Domenico Pozzovivo, Mikel Landa, Tejay van Garderen, Rafal Majka
VeloHuman will be previewing every individual stage of the race, so stay tuned for more analysis. Meanwhile, if you haven’t already checked out the Recon Ride’s first of three Vuelta episodes, there’s no time like the present to start listening! And, of course, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary.
The WorldTour makes one last stop in Spring Classics territory for the weeklong Eneco Tour, a relatively young race that has nevertheless offered a healthy amount of high-caliber entertainment the past few years. While the race doesn’t visit any Alpine climbs, the cobbles and the short but steep uphill tests of Belgium and the Netherlands, familiar to anyone who enjoys bike racing in the spring, will provide plenty of challenges to sort out the General Classification. Bonus seconds tend to play a pretty important role as well, giving the fast finishers a leg up on those less inclined to get involved in the hunt for high stage placings.
The Route
The Eneco Tour opens with three straight relatively flat days that look good for the sprinters, though don’t be surprised if at least one of them ends up going to an aggressive attacker. Nothing is guaranteed a part of the world as prone to crosswinds and sketchy conditions.
Stage 4 is a 13.9km individual time trial. It doesn’t sound like much, but in a weeklong race without any mountains, it’s a critical stage for the GC hopefuls. Despite a somewhat visually deceiving official profile graphic, it’s quite flat (and not particularly technical) and will favor the powerhouse specialists.
Stage 5 will take the peloton into Amstel Gold Race territory, pitting the riders up against some of the climbs of that one-day classic (although the stage avoids the Cauberg). The final few kilometers involve multiple short but steep climbs, and then a downhill run into the finishing straight.
Stage 6 should play out like a mini-Liège-Bastogne-Liège, taking on some of the same challenges and offering a similar profile: numerous climbs that are just a bit tougher than those of the previous stage.
The Eneco Tour concludes with a visit to the heartland of the Cobbled Classics in Belgium, where the peloton will take on multiple ascents of the legendary Muur van Geraardsbergen.
Stage 7: St.Pieters-Leeuw › Geraardsbergen (188.6km) – The Eneco Tour’s final stage is up-and-down from start to finish, with plenty of cobbled stretches to make things even tougher.
The challenging cobbled climbs will give the strongmen one last shot at a WorldTour victory in Flanders this season.
The General Classification Contenders
Given the Classics-esque feel of the Eneco Tour, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that many of the big names of the spring are making the start at this race. The more versatile among them will have a shot at the overall victory here.
Tim Wellens was the surprise victor last year (he launched an attack on that year’s Liège-Bastogne-Liege-esque stage 6 that catapulted him into the lead) and he returns this year with a strong Lotto-Soudal team. The route certainly suits Wellens, a true all-round talent who can handle this terrain well, though form has been a question mark for Wellens this season. The 24-year-old has not quite had the 2015 he was probably hoping for. Still, he’s a proven threat in this race who can’t be counted out. His team is stacked with other versatile talents as well: Tiesj Benoot, Jens Debuscherre, Jürgen Roelandts, and Thomas De Gendt are all capable supporters or alternatives if Wellens isn’t up for it.
Greg Van Avermaet and Philippe Gilbert head a powerful BMC squad. It would be a big surprise if at least one of them was not involved in the fight for the overall victory. I see Van Avermaet as the slightly more likely of the pair to lead the team, though both are very well-suited to the race and in sharp form. Van Avermaet’s recent climbing performances and a relatively newfound ability to time trial will come in especially handy in this race. He won the Muur van Geraardsbergen stage in 2014 and is sure to contend there again, and his cobblestone skills and finishing speed coupled with the best form of his life on the climbs and against the clock give him an edge in this race. He was 5th overall last year. Motivation is likely through the roof after a frustrating Clásica San Sebastián. Gilbert is a dangerous contender in his own right, however, 7th last year and the winner of multiple Eneco Tour stages in the past, and coming off a San Sebastián runner-up performance. Jempy Drucker and Daniel Oss round out a very strong BMC roster.
Lars Boom won the Eneco Tour back in 2012 and he was 2nd in 2014. He is very strong against the clock and on the cobbles, and always seems to climb better than you might expect on the Eneco Tour’s uphill tests. He should be right up there fighting for the overall victory. Andriy Grivko is another excellent option on an Astana team that is surprisingly well-suited to this race. Grivko was 3rd in 2013 and 4th last year, and he has the climbing legs and time trialing skills to make up for a relative lack of cobblestone prowess.
Etixx-QuickStep will be without 2013 overall winner Zdenek Stybar but that doesn’t mean they aren’t loaded with options. Julian Alaphillipe, one of the big stars of this year’s Ardennes Classics, is the most obvious choice. He is untested on the cobblestones but he should be among the best riders in the race on Stages 6 and 7, and can put in a nice ITT on a short course as well. Niki Terpstra is another excellent option—he tends to perform surprisingly well on the climbs of the Eneco Tour, and the rest of the terrain suits him perfectly. Tom Boonen is of course another rider to watch out for on EQS.
Simon Spilak may seem out of place among the many Classics stars on the startlist, but as a balanced rider with both strong climbing legs and a strong time trial, he can’t be overlooked in this race. Viacheslav Kuznetsov is a dark horse on the Katusha squad to watch out for—he’s comfortable on this terrain and was 11th overall in 2014.
It hasn’t been the best season for Wilco Kelderman, but like Simon Spilak he is an excellent all-round talent and a danger in pretty much any stage race. He also has a nice finishing kick to hunt down bonus seconds. Trek is without Fabian Cancellara but Fabio Felline could surprise some people with his climbing legs and time trialing skills. Lampre-Merida’s Diego Ulissi certainly has the climbing chops to handle the climbs and the finishing speed to nab bonus seconds. If he can survive the conditions and the cobblestones, he’s also pretty good against the clock in a short ITT.
Jan Bakelants, Lars Petter Nordhaug, Jens Keukeleire, Gorka Izagirre, Michael Rogers, Simon Geschke, Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Sebastian Langeveld are others on the list of outsiders hoping to contend for the Eneco Tour GC title.
The Stagehunters
André Greipel is the biggest name in a long list of fast finishers making the start, a list that also includes Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Démare, Sacha Modolo, Elia Viviani, JJ Lobato, Moreno Hofland, Heinrich Haussler, Ramunas Navardauskas, Nikias Arndt, and Andrea Guardini. Greipel is in a class of his own out of that bunch, but coming off the Tour, motivation and form aren’t guaranteed. The sprinters should have three chances to hunt for stage victories at the beginning of the race.
Also watch out for Classics specialists like Filippo Pozzato, Ian Stannard, and StijnVandenbergh who might not be contenders for the General Classification, but who will nevertheless be dangerous on their preferred terrain in the hunt for stage victories. Practically the entire Topsport team fits this description as well.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites
GC Winner: Greg Van Avermaet Podium: Lars Boom, Tim Wellens Other Top Contenders: Philippe Gilbert, Julian Alaphilippe, Andriy Grivko, Niki Terpstra, Diego Ulissi, Simon Spilak, Wilco Kelderman
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race!
August is upon us, which means it’s time for seven days of racing (and balloons! more on that in the most recent Recon Ride podcast…) in Poland. The Tour de Pologne is an often unpredictable race that has offered plenty of thrills in the past few years of nail-biting GC battles and daring solo attacks for stage wins. The startlist of the 2015 edition will put plenty of talent on display, with a few big names coming from the Tour de France with aspirations of squeezing a few more drops of form out of their legs, and several other big names working up to Vuelta form.
The Route
The 72nd Tour de Pologne opens with a trio of fast-finisher-friendly stages, though scattered hills and technical urban roads could leave the door open for late attackers on all three.
The GC men will need to be on their toes for Stage 4, which includes three climbs in the middle of the day before 30 kilometers of flat run-in to the finish. The uphill tests are categorized 2, 1, and 1, and while a Tour de Pologne Cat. 1 is probably closer to a Tour de France Cat. 2 or even Cat. 3 in terms of difficulty, the three ascents in quick succession will make things interesting regardless.
It’s important to keep the arbitrary nature of climb categorization in mind for Stage 5, where there are officially eight Cat. 1s—still, the stage is 223km in total and after the first 30km there are essentially zero flat kilometers all the way to the finish line. Expect plenty of pretenders to see their GC bids go up in flames on a day like this.
Stage 6 is the queen stage, and it runs along a route the Tour of Poland has taken on for several years running now. The peloton faces a pairing of Cat. 1 climbs (the first about 4.5km and the second 5.5km, both at nearly 6%) a total of four times each, with other smaller lumps thrown in as well. The stage finishes one of those smaller climbs, an uncategorized uphill drag that grades out at around 4.5%. for about 5km.
Stage 6: Bukovina Terma Hotel Spa › Bukowina Tatrzańska (174km) – The peloton is in for a tough day of non-stop climbing in the queen stage of the Tour de Pologne.
The now-familiar parcours has been a crucial GC stage in the past several years, though it often plays a weeding-out role more than anything, with small gaps near the top of the leaderboard but then significant ones outside the first 30 or 40 finishers.
The Tour de Pologne finishes with a 25km individual time trial in Krakow. It’s flat as a pancake and will favor the big engines. Any pure climbers hoping for good GC results will be in for tough days on the bike.
The General Classification Contenders
2014 winner Rafal Majka is skipping the Tour of Poland this year, leaving the race wide open. His countryman Michal Kwiatkowski is certainly one potential successor. If Kwiatkowski were to draw up a stage race route for himself, he probably couldn’t do much better than this: classics style climbs and a long flat time trial to close things out. The Ardennes star and elite chrono rider would be a big favorite to excel on the parcours if his form and motivation were at 100%—however, neither one is clear heading into this race. Kwiatkowski was 2nd here back in 2012, but he’s looked a bit rusty the past few weeks. His goals for his home race are unclear. He’s still a favorite because of his peak ability and perfectly-tailored skillset, but recent showings keep him from being an obvious candidate to boss this race.
Movistar’s Ion Izagirre has been runner-up in the past two editions, and his balanced skillset makes him a strong candidate again this year. His team certainly won’t hurt: Beñat Intxausti was 3rd in 2015, and Andrey Amador was 6th, and both riders have flashed great form this year with strong Giro performances (though Amador hasn’t raced since). Izagirre probably gets the team leadership nod due to his past rides at Poland but this is a team that isn’t afraid to support more than one contender should he falter, so watch out for the rest of the squad as well.
Sky’s Sergio Henao has performed well in past editions of the Tour de Pologne, and his strong climbing legs and underrated time trial make him a top favorite in the 2015 running of the race. Henao, like Izagirre, performed well in the Tour of the Basque Country, a race also featuring numerous but not incredibly steep climbs and a critical closing TT. Vasil Kiryienka, good on the hills and excellent in the time trial, is another option, as is Phil Deignan, who took 7th here last year.
Astana’s Fabio Aru is undoubtedly among the biggest-name riders in the race, but form and motivation are completely unknown. This is also not a great event for his skillset. There are no huge climbs for him to open up gaps on his less uphill-inclined rivals, and the flat ITT that closes out the race does not suit hm very well. A GC bid would be a surprise. Well-rounded Dario Cataldo could be a better option for Astana, and Alexey Lutsenko is another alternative.
Robert Gesink was 2nd in the Tour of Poland all the way back in 2007, and he’s coming off a very impressive Tour de France. Gesink is known for his climbing abilities but he’s put in some good riding against the clock this year.
Katusha’s Ilnur Zakarin is on uncertain form at this point in the season, but the overall parcours suits his talents. He’s proven himself a strong climber capable of an excellent time trial.
AG2R’s Christophe Riblon spends most his time racing in a support role for his team’s stable of impressive climbers, but he’s performed very well in the Tour de Pologne in the past and has the all-round skillset to be in the mix again this year. Diego Ulissi took one of his first big career victories at the Tour of Poland in 2013. He’s put in a few impressive time trial result in his career and could have a chance at the overall if he can turn in a consistent performance all week long.
Ben Hermans of BMC is VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for the Tour of Poland. His strong climbing legs often get lost in the shuffle at big-budget BMC, but Hermans has had a great year so far and is coming off a podium performance at the Tour of Austria. In a race with several stages that resemble the hilly spring classics, the Brabantse Pijl winner could find himself well positioned to pick up time on the climbs.
Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Robert Kiserlovksi, former winner Moreno Moser, Davide Formolo, Przemyslav Niemiec, and Jan Hirt are others who could be in the mix on GC.
The Stagehunters
Marcel Kittel is the marquee sprinting name on the roster but illness had laid him low so far in 2015. Hopefully he’ll get back into shape soon but he hasn’t made any showings of form lately, and until he does, it’s hard to bet on him to succeed on the flat stages in Poland.
There are several fast men on the startlist who could look to step into that marquee sprinter role. Giacomo Nizzolo, Sacha Modolo, Caleb Ewan, and Luka Mezgec are the top names on the list, while Gianni Meersman and JJ Lobato are good bets for bunch sprints that follow slightly hillier days. Matteo Pelucchi, Andrea Guardini, and Tom Van Asbroeck are others who could feature in the high speed finishes.
Watch out for 2014 KOM-winner Maciej Paterski on the hillier days—although the home rider has not been feeling well this past week, he’s had a great year so far and is a definite threat on the intermediate stages. Paterski’s teammate Davide Rebellin, Carlos Betancur, and Alessandro De Marchi are others who could be on the hunt for stage victories on the lumpier days.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites
GC Winner: Ion Izagirre Podium: Sergio Henao, Robert Gesink Other Top Contenders: Beñat Inxtausti, Ilnur Zakarin, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Christophe Riblon, Vasil Kiryienka, Ben Hermans, Michal Kwiatkowski
