Tag: Predictions

Clásica de San Sebastián 2015 Preview

The 2015 Tour de France may be over but the WorldTour rolls on. The Clásica de San Sebastián (or the Donostiako Klasikoa in Basque) is the next race on the docket. It’s a hilly event that has just the right profile to inspire plenty of attacks, in a region mad for cycling, and its position on the calendar makes it a tough race to predict—some of the stars of the Tour de France are in attendance hoping to get just a bit more out of their legs, while a few other big-name riders are returning to racing for the first time and hoping to get back up to speed quickly.

This strange dynamic is just one of the many topics discussed in the Recon Ride’s San Sebastián pre-race podcast, which you should check out for more analysis.

The Route

The San Sebastián organizers made a small but impactful change to the race route last season that led to an exciting finale, and the event returns to that successful parcours for 2015.

The race starts and finishes in the coastal town of San Sebastián, looping in and around the environs to make for a total race length of 219.2 kilometers.

The harder climbs on San Sebastián profile are categorized as if this were a stage race, and there are six such challenges on the route. The Category 1 Iturburu climb, crested around kilometer 60, is no slouch, but it’s early enough to be more of a leg-softener than anything else.

Once the peloton hits the slopes of the Jaizkibel, the more enterprising riders in the bunch will have one opportunity after another to go on the attack, all the way to the last climb of the day less than 10km from the finish.

Things get more consistently difficult after the midway point of the route with the first trip up the Jaizkibel, the marquee climb of the race. It’s another Cat. 1 ascent, roughly 8 kilometers in length with an average gradient over 5%. After a descent, it’s not long before the riders reach the Cat. 2 Arkale, a short but steep climb and the third categorized test of the day. From the top of the Arkale, the pack will make a downhill trip right back to the foot of the Jaizkibel, where they’ll take on both the Jaizkibel and then the Arkale a second time.

After the second descent from the Arkale comes the final run-in to town, but there’s a tough climb along the road to the finish. The Bordako Tontorra climb to Igeldo is a short but steep Cat. 2 crested just over 7 kilometers from the finish. It’s less than 3km in length but with an average gradient nearing 10% and sections in the 20% range, it’s a hard road to the top. After the climb comes a descent into a flat finish.

The Contenders

The profile favors strong climbers with a lot of punch. It’s probably possible to attack from the more pure-climber-friendly Jaizkibel or from the Arkale and hold out to the finish, but it’s more likely that the race comes down to the last bump in the road, which is more suited to the Ardennes-style riders than the big stage racing stars.

That late climb shook up the race last year, providing Alejandro Valverde with a launching pad to go on the attack for the win. Because the parcours is so up-and-down already, the peloton is pretty thinned out by the time it reaches the final 10km—even if attacks on the Jaizkibel and Arkale are reeled in, it’s still very hard to keep things altogether on the last climb. In case it’s a small group that reaches the finish, a strong flatland kick will be important to anyone hoping to win.

However things play out, Valverde is capable of winning this race in pretty much any scenario, which is probably why he is a two-time champion. Coming off of a Tour de France podium, and in the middle of an excellent season (in which he dominated the hilly spring classics), it’s hard not to see Valverde as the clear favorite. He’s among the best climbers on the starlist who can thrive on pretty much any gradient, and he’s got more punch than most of his rivals. Valverde could win this with another late attack, or he could follow the moves in the finale and hold out for a reduced sprint. Giovanni Visconti is a good alternative for Movistar.

As good a candidate as Valverde is to win this race, however, the Clásica is still a pretty wide open event. It’s always hard to say how riders’ legs will react coming into the race. Valverde went very deep fighting for a Tour de France podium spot.

Philippe Gilbert is another former winner who has been on terrific form of late. If the pace is really high over the finale climb, the Philippe Gilbert of 2015 may have just a bit of trouble holding on all the way up, but if the peloton plays the early slopes cautiously, Gilbert will be well-positioned to make a late attack or to look for a sprint win. BMC has some serious firepower behind Gilbert, though—Greg Van Avermaet was in the Top 10 last year and is in great form this year, and Samuel Sánchez has been in the Top 10 several times over his career.

Joaquim Rodríguez has never won the race but he’s come close several times, and it’s no surprise that he does well here given the punchy-climber-friendly profile. He’ll probably need to launch a late attack if he wants to win, since he’ll have trouble outsprinting some of the other top favorites at the flat finish, but the Igeldo climb is the perfect place to do that. His form was good enough for two stage wins at the Tour, but he didn’t look terrific in the final week; however, he landed on the podium in the 2014 edition of the Clásica despite a lackluster Tour, so I won’t read too much into his not-great few days in the Alps. Daniel Moreno makes for an excellent foil—he’s been a bit quiet this season, but Purito and Moreno always make for a strong 1-2 punch.

Bauke Mollema was 2nd in this race last year and has been in the Top 10 all three times he’s made the start. Mollema is known as a strong climber but he’s also handy in a sprint. If he can get into a small group at the end of the day he will have a great shot at winning. For whatever reason, his kick is a bit underrated, and that can only help him potentially pull one over the more obvious Ardennes veterans in the finale. Julian Arredondo and Bob Jungels are other great options for Trek.

Etixx-QuickStep is loaded with talent in the form of Julian Alaphilippe, Rigoberto Urán, and Zdenek Stybar. Alaphilippe is probably best-suited to the profile, but he’s not raced in a little while so the form is a question mark. Urán looked decent in the Tour, and packs a nice sprint—he’s a rider to watch. Stybar will be a good bet as well, coming off of strong Tour de France in which he took a stage victory. He climbs better every year and he was 10th here last year.

2013 winner Tony Gallopin is not racing, but Lotto Soudal has a few good options in his stead with Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert. Both seem like good candidates to try an attack from a little ways out;

Dan Martin is an obvious candidate for success on the San Sebastián profile but he was not at his best in the last week of the Tour and if he’s feeling a bit rusty, a 200+ kilometer bike race might be tough. Ryder Hesjedal could pick up the slack if Martin isn’t up for it. Roman Kreuziger will lead Tinkoff-Saxo after Alberto Contador decided to back out of the start citing a fever—Kreuziger has a good track record in San Sebastián and will be worth keeping an eye on. Astana’s Luis Leon Sanchez is a two-time winner of the race, but he might not even be the best rider on his team. Mikel Landa has had an excellent season thus far and has the explosive climbing legs to try a move on slopes. He was 6th in this race back in 2013 before he had really even come close to the level at which he’s been racing this year.

Both of the Yates twins have a shot—Adam was riding well in last year’s edition of the race before crashing out of the lead group in the final few kilometers, and Simon may be even better suited to the profile. AG2R’s Romain Bardet is in good shape and has quietly become a dangerous one-day racer. Teammate Alexis Vuillermoz could look to launch himself on one of the late climbs. Rui Costa was forced to abandon the Tour de France by a variety of ailments, but this is a great parcours for him if he’s back to 100%.

Jarlinson Pantano, Sylvain Chavanel, Wilco Kelderman, and Thibaut Pinot are others who will hope to be involved with the other race favorites.

Pello Bilbao of Caja Rural is VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider to watch at the Clásica de San Sebastián. Bilbao is a talented all-rounder with the climbing legs to be in the mix as a stage race contender, but who also packs a nice finishing kick. He’s having a great year so far, having won a mountain stage at the Tour of Turkey and the overall at the Tour de Beauce, among other results. Caja Rural in general is having a very nice season, with quite a collection of wins at Continental Tour races; watch out for a long-range dig from Amets Txurruka or David Arroyo as well, and keep an eye on versatile fast finisher Carlos Barbero.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Philippe Gilbert, Bauke Mollema
Other Top Contenders: Joaquim Rodríguez, Greg Van Avermaet, Zdenek Stybar, Julian Alaphilippe, Romain Bardet, Dan Martin, Mikel Landa

Listen to the Recon Ride’s Clásica de San Sebastián pre-race podcast for more analysis, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter!

Photo by Oscar Anton (CC).

July 31, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de Pologne 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 21: Tour de Pologne 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on the Tour de Pologne, covering the race history, the route, and the riders to watch. And the balloons.
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Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm team up to talk Tour de Pologne, the first stage race on the WorldTour calendar after the Tour de France.

Photo by Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland (CC).

July 31, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Clásica de San Sebastián 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 20: Clásica de San Sebastián 2015 Pre-race Show
Many of the pro peloton’s top climbers and one-day specialists are headed to Spain this weekend to take on the Clásica de San Sebastián. The Recon Ride previews the action, with some help from cycling journo Dave Everett and race contender Bauke Mollema.
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In the latest episode of the Recon Ride podcast, Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm dive into the storylines and discuss the route and the potential favorites of the always exciting Clásica de San Sebastián. Dave Everett provides local insight, while 2014 runner-up Bauke Mollema gives his thoughts on how things might play out this year.

Photo by Greta Hughson (CC).

July 30, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Sèvres › Paris – 109.5km

Chris Froome may have effectively sealed his 2015 Tour de France win, but the race reaches its official conclusion in Paris on Stage 21. Only 109.5km in total, the pack starts in Sèvres and then rides about 40km into Paris, where they begin ten laps of an urban circuit, finishing on the Champs-Élysées. The first third or so of the stage is essentially a procession to celebrate the race and Froome’s all-but-sewn-up overall victory. Once the peloton enters the Paris, riders will start to attempt to break clear of the pack for one last shot at glory in the world’s biggest bike race, and then the sprint teams will gradually wind up the pace. Things get very fast in the final few laps.

The final kilometer of the circuit has a large s-curve that veers left and then right again with around 500 meters to go, but after that it’s a straight run to the line where we can expect a high-speed sprint finale.

With a bit of rain in the forecast for the afternoon, there is a slight chance of wet roads at the finish.

Though the Tour’s final stage always starts out with relative calm, the stage victory in Paris is the most valuable stage win in the sport for the sprinters. There will be plenty of attempts to get clear on the urban roads, but don’t expect any attackers to get too much room. The Champs-Élysées is all about the quick men and a big bunch kick.

On results, one sprinter has been head and shoulders above crowd in this Tour: André Greipel. In a mass sprint, Mark Cavendish, the only rider who has beaten Greipel in a previous bunch kick in the 2015 Tour, looks to be the only one with a real chance of taking him on again on Stage 21.

Greipel definitely has the edge on win record so far in the 2015 Tour—Greipel has a three-to-one win advantage in that department. He’s been on terrific form so far in this race. However, both of Greipel’s first two stage wins came against a poorly-led-out Mark Cavendish, and Greipel’s third win was against a field that did not include Cavendish, who had been dropped from the pack much earlier in the day. Prior to this Tour, the younger Cav has typically had the better of Greipel. In short, there are reasons to like Cavendish’s chances despite his relative lack of success so far.

Both riders are without their main leadout men going into Stage 21, with Lotto-Soudal’s Greg Henderson and Etixx-QuickStep’s Mark Renshaw both having abandoned the race. I see this as almost a dead heat, but based on peak ability and past performances on the Champs-Élysées, I give a very, very slight edge to Mark Cavendish, who has won on this stage plenty of times before.

Behind the two top-tier sprinters in this Tour are plenty of hopeful quick men hoping to steal the day—but it’s hard to like anyone’s chances in this high-speed finale other than the two fastest riders in the race. Peter Sagan has come close in the bunch sprints, in the Top 4 of each of the race’s four bunch kicks so far with two close runner-up rides among those results. For all the talk you’ll hear from observers about him “not being a pure sprinter,” Sagan has an impressive turn of speed and can never be counted out, especially after a few days in the mountains that might have softened the legs of his rivals.

The same is true of John Degeknolb, who ran 2nd behind Greipel on Stage 15. He’s gotten better as the race has gone on, and, as he’s among the toughest sprinters in the peloton, he will probably be less depleted from the Tour’s visit to the Alps than most. Alexander Kristoff has not been as strong in this Tour as he was last year, but he came close to a Champs-Élysées win behind Marcel Kittel in last year’s Tour and also has endurance in spades.

Arnaud Démare, Bryan Coquard, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who will have a chance at success in the bunch gallop that will likely close out the 2015 Tour de France.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2015 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of the Tour, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the VeloHuman Facebook page.

While the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still previews and podcasts to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for big races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2015. The race preview and the pre-race podcast for the always exciting Clásica de San Sebastián are only a few days away!

-Dane Cash

July 25, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Modane Valfréjus › Alpe d’Huez – 110.5km

Stage 20 is the Tour’s final mountain stage, and the only stage in the race to feature two HC-rated climbs. Those two uphill tests are the only categorized climbs on the day, but they’re plenty challenging by themselves.

It’s a very short stage at just 110.5 kilometers, so expect a high pace all day. After a downhill run of 25km from the start the road angles upward in the form of the now-familiar Col de la Croix de Fer, though this time they approach the summit a different way.

The peloton may have gained some familiarity with the Col de la Croix de Fer after Stage 19, but that won’t offer much comfort during the 29km ride to the top.

The trip upward will span 29km at 5.2%, with a few steeper sections early on and then near the top.

After the riders crest the climb, they’ll head downhill for about 30 kilometers into a short stretch of flat road, which leads into the foot of the final mountain climb of the 2015 Tour de France: Alpe d’Huez.

The legendary Alpine test is 13.8km in length with an 8.1% average gradient. It is at its steepest at the beginning of the climb and then with around 3 kilometers to go. Things even out a bit near the top for a final kilometer at just over 5%.

The Alpe d’Huez is the final opportunity for the climbers to leave their mark on the 2015 Tour de France.

The profile isn’t a terrible one for the early breakaway, and if a strong group gets up the road they will have a chance, but most of the big favorites from afar have spent a lot of time in the breakaways in the past two stages, and that could leave them low on fuel. The GC men, especially if they wind it up early to put pressure on each other, have a good chance of fighting it out for the final mountain stage in the Tour.

Nairo Quintana put some time into Chris Froome on Stage 19 and will look to do so again on Stage 20. For Froome, the goal is simply to not lose 2 and a half minutes on the stage. Froome didn’t look totally cooked on Stage 19 and was probably playing things conservatively, limiting the damage reasonably well—but the young Colombian is nevertheless closer to yellow than he was before. That could have Froome planning to take Stage 20 as safely as possible.

If he decides to attack Quintana, Froome’s an obvious danger for stage win, but with the Tour de France on the line, that seems like a risky proposition. What’s more, Quintana, benefiting a great deal from having Alejandro Valverde as a foil, might just be stronger now anyway. If this does come down to the GC favorites, it’s hard to see anyone challenging Quintana for Stage 20.

Alberto Contador will likely give it a shot. He’s way too far down on Froome to be a threat, but the podium is not completely out of reach, and a stage win would be something of a consolation prize for Contador, whose Tour has fallen very short of his expectations. He’s not strong enough to beat Froome and Quintana head-to-head but there’s a chance he’s given enough of space that that won’t matter too much.

Stage 19 winner Vincenzo Nibali could obviously have aspirations of breaking clear of the GC group once again, and he’s certainly looked stronger in the past few days than he did at the start of the race. But he’s not likely to get nearly as much breathing room as before now that he’s in contention for the podium, and he’s bound to pay somewhat for his efforts on Stage 19.

Robert Gesink sits nearly 9 minutes behind Froome on GC, and he has nearly 4 minutes of cushion to the next rider on the leaderboard. If he feels strong on the final climb, don’t be surprised if he tries to leave the GC men behind to go in pursuit of a stage win. Even if his bid fails spectacularly, he’s got plenty of time to lose to drop even one spot inside the Top 10.

Romain Bardet has enjoyed two great stages in a row, with a win on Stage 18 and a top 5 placing (and plenty of KOM points racked up) on Stage 19. He’s certainly strong right now, and he’s far enough behind on GC that he’ll be given some space if he wants to go for a long one. It’s hard to predict how he’ll play the stage—in his quest for the KOM title, the points on the Croix de Fer won’t actually be all that important if Froome ends up placing highly on the final climb. Bardet can’t afford to wear himself down too much and not be in contention for a decent placing at the finish. As such, his strategic decisions should be more focused simply on whether he thinks he has a better chance at a high stage placing (and the accompanying KOM points) from the pack, or in the break. Sticking with the peloton until the final ascent and then launching a move could be the best tactic. In any case, after two days of exhausting himself, Bardet is likely to be bringing a bit of fatigue into Stage 20, so it will be a big challenge for him to take a victory, especially with stronger GC favorites and fresher potential breakaway candidates having their eyes on the same prize.

Joaquim Rodríguez is in a similar boat, but he has not looked the best in the past two stages. The veteran racer could still recover, however, and unlike Bardet he conserved energy after the breakaway was reeled in on Stage 19, so don’t be surprised if he gives a long-range attack another go on Stage 20.

Pierre Rolland has plenty of form in this Tour de France but two days in a row of exhausting solo efforts won’t have left him with much energy to try for another on Stage 20. Then again, everyone will likely be tired and Rolland isn’t a threat to the overall, so he may find success if he saves energy by riding in the pack until the final climb, and then goes for a long one on the early slopes.

Thibaut Pinot stayed with the GC men for the entirety of Stage 20, which, first, suggests that he is feeling strong right now, and second, will likely leave him a bit fresher than Bardet, Rodríguez, and a number of other likely breakaway contenders. That could serve him well for a long-range move, though he hasn’t quite had the strength to turn in a victory so far.

Jakob Fuglsang was one of the few big-name potential breakaway favorites to completely save his energy on Stage 19, dropping out of the GC group early, and he’s looked strong enough in this Tour that he may have a chance with a long one on Stage 20. The question for Fuglsang will be whether he gives it a shot at all. Now that Nibali is fighting for the podium, Astana may call for all hands on deck in support of the Italian GC contender, which could leave Fuglsang playing domestique. If he goes on the attack, he’s a dangerous rider.

Rigoberto Urán, Rafal Majka, Ryder Hesjedal, Andrew Talansky, Cyril Gautier, Adam Yates, Serge Pauwels, Samuel Sánchez, Warren Barguil, Mathias Frank, and Rafael Valls are other names to watch for a long-range strike on Stage 20.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the final stage of the 2015 Tour after the conclusion of Stage 20.

July 24, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne › La Toussuire – 138km

The Tour de France is now halfway through its Alpine stretch and the climbs aren’t getting any easier on Stage 19.

Just like Stage 18, Stage 19 kicks off with climbing right from the gun. The Cat. 1 Col de Chaussy is 15.4km long at 6.3%, quite a challenge to take on in the first hour of the day. From the top it’s a long descent into a long flat section of a little over 25km, which ends at the foot of the massive Col de la Croix de Fer.

Anyone who struggles to make it up the brutally long Col de la Croix de Fer will be in for a tough day—it’s still over 50km from the top to the finish line, with two hard climbs along the way.

22.4km at 6.9%, the Croix de Fer is a huge challenge to overcome, with a particularly steep midsection that jumps into double digits for a little while.

After the summit comes a descent into the short, Cat. 2 Col du Mollard (5.7km at 6.8%). From there it’s a a long downhill that runs right into the foot of the La Toussuire climb, the final ascent of the day. 18km at 6.1%, it’s pretty challenging as Cat. 1 climbs go. The steepest part as at the very beginning, with things easing off slightly near the finish line.

Despite the hard climbs on the profile, Stage 19 is actually quite short, so expect a day of high-speed racing.

Breakaways have enjoyed their own opportunities to fight for stage victories two days in a row now, and the Stage 19 profile is another that will look appealing to the aggressive types, with the hardest climb of the day so far from the finish and plenty of testy descending in between its summit and the finish. On the other hand, the long final climb will require the breakaway riders to have a hefty advantage to stay clear, and this is the penultimate opportunity for the GC men to try to make something happen on the overall leaderboard, which could spur some into action. Even if Movistar isn’t going to be all that aggressive, we’ve seen the fringe GC contenders getting active in the mountains, which has the domino effect of spurring the outside GC contenders to go on the chase, with the top GC contenders then getting into gear to follow.

What’s more, the Stage 18 breakaway included almost all of the top potential Alpine breakaway contenders, which might leave many of them a bit tired. This will be another big day for the KOM contenders, which could inspire some of those who were on the move on Stage 18 to take up the march again on Stage 19, but it’s hard to say who will be that interested in putting themselves through the hell of a real stage victory bid in the breakaway once again.

If a strong group of top-notch climbers gets clear, they’ll have a chance at winning this from afar, but otherwise, the GC men could have their day on Stage 19.

Nairo Quintana has not been able to drop Chris Froome so far in this Tour de France, but with the dangerous 1-2 punch of Alejandro Valverde, he has the chance to put some serious pressure on the race leader in the Alps. It likely won’t make a difference on the GC unless Froome crashes or gets sick (which could happen), but a nabbing a stage while he’s hunting for seconds on the overall leaderboard seems like a real possibility. In 2013, Froome allowed Quintana to get up the road in the final week to take back a little bit of time, and if that formula holds here, Quintana could skip clear on the last climb of the day to take a stage victory. Alejandro Valverde, sitting in 3rd, seems a bit less likely to launch a suicide attack since he’s never actually landed a podium performance in the Tour in his long career, but his powerful finishing kick makes him a threat if things are still together at the top of the final climb.

If Froome decides that he wants a stage victory, he will be very difficult to stop, as he’s been unbeatable on the climbs so far in this Tour de France; as such, he can never be counted out. However, with just two more mountain stages left in the race, Froome could decide to play this rather conservatively.

Alberto Contador has tried to go on the move in the Alps already, but he can’t quite get any separation. The legs just haven’t been there. Still, if Froome focuses all his attention on Movistar, the Giro-winner could steal a march on the other GC favorites. The same is true for Vincenzo Nibali, though the Italian isn’t at his best.

Robert Gesink’s strong form, fast finish, and non-threatening position a bit further down the leaderboard make him a nice candidate to try to make something happen out of the GC group on the final climb. The same is true for Bauke Mollema, though the form hasn’t quite been as strong for Mollema in this Tour de France.

If the early breakaway stays clear, it will likely include plenty of familiar long-range attackers. Jakob Fuglsang has now missed out on two stage wins from the breakaway, and the most recent one will likely have him fired up for another shot. A collision with a race moto took Fuglsang down on the hardest climb of Stage 18, and chasing back onto the breakaway group left him burnt out for the final battle for the stage victory. It also kept him from collecting as many points in the KOM competition, leaving him sitting 3rd in that classification. Fuglsang will likely try very hard to get into the break on one or both of the next two stages in the hunt for KOM points and a stage victory, and the long, challenging climbs of Stage 19 suit him very well.

Joaquim Rodríguez is currently tied with Romain Bardet (just ahead of Fuglsang) on KOM points and will have to get up the road again if he wants to win the competition. He won the early battles for points on Stage 18 but then faded on the Col du Glandon. However, Rodríguez has said that he missed a feed before taking on the climb and then suffered a hunger knock, which shouldn’t hold him back on Stage 19. Plus, he won’t have nearly the effort in his legs that many of his breakaway rivals continued to put in all the way to line. He’s definitely a candidate for success.

So is Bardet, though the young Frenchman may be a bit more conservative in his racing (and he may be more of a marked man) now that he’s holding on to a Top 10 on GC. A monumental effort to win Stage 19 with a solo attack from over 40km out won’t help either. He’s definitely a threat and will be a favorite if he can get into the break, but back-to-back stage wins from the break in the Alps is an extremely challenging feat.

Unlike the aforementioned trio, Pierre Rolland probably won’t expend energy trying to pick up KOM points if he gets into the Stage 19 breakaway. He’s got to be a bit tired after a tough Stage 19, but like Fuglsang he’ll be motivated by the missed opportunity and will likely be very interested in getting on the move in the penultimate mountain stage of the 2015 Tour.

Thibaut Pinot, Tanel Kangert, Serge Pauwels, Ryder Hesjedal, Andrew Talansky, Samuel Sánchez, Rafal Majka, Winner Anacona, Adam Yates, and Rafael Valls and Rigoberto Urán (two of the few likely breakaway hopefuls who didn’t spend much energy on Stage 18) are other potential candidates for long-range success on Stage 19.

VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Jakob Fuglsang | 3. Pierre Rolland

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 19.

-Dane Cash

July 23, 2015