Tag: Predictions

Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Montecchio Maggiore › Jesolo – 147km

The bunch finally got its act together and reeled in the breakaway riders on Stage 12 to give Philippe Gilbert a win. Anything other than a second straight bunch finish on Stage 13 would be an embarrassment for the sprinters’ teams.

The stage has nothing remotely resemble a climb on it. In fact, the road goes slightly downhill from start to finish. After letting the early break get clear on a similarly sprinter-oriented Stage 10, the quick men should be able to get organized here and ensure that this stage ends in a bunch kick.

The finish is a bit technical. There are several roundabouts in the final few kilometers, and a right-hand turn with around 500 meters to go, after which comes a straightaway to the line. Positioning and a skilled, dedicated leadout will be critical. The potential for bad weather could throw this finale into chaos.

André Greipel is, at his best, the strongest sprinter on the startlist. That makes him an obvious favorite on the stage. Still, he’s prone to have off days, and Stage 13, with a few tricky challenges to navigate in the finale and the potential for rain, is a fair candidate to be an off day.

Perennial runner-up Giacomo Nizzolo might need some things to go his way to finally take that elusive Giro win, but there are more than a few factors weighing in his favor on Stage 13. Nizzolo has terrific top speed for a 500m straightaway and also has strong bike-handling skills and a dedicated squad of support riders to lead him into this finish. This will be as good a stage as any for Nizzolo, who has looked quick at the intermediate sprints and in the Stage 10 finish behind the breakaway.

Sacha Modolo has the top speed to win against anyone, if he can come into the finale in good position. He’s a top contender in any sprint.

Elia Viviani, like Giacomo Nizzolo, has looked strong at the intermediate sprints in this past few days. He’s also one of the two riders to have won a sprint stage in this Giro. He should be in the mix.

Luka Mezgec, Moreno Hofland, and Juan José Lobato could challenge the top favorites. Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Davide Appollonio, and Alessandro Petacchi are other quick men to keep an eye on.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. André Greipel | 3. Sacha Modolo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 13 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 22, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Imola › Vicenza (Monte Berico) – 190km

Though it doesn’t have as many hills from start to finish as Stage 11 (a day tailormade for a breakaway that was won by a breakaway rider, Ilnur Zakarin), Stage 12 does have a very hilly finale that should put the puncheurs on alert again for the chance of a stage win.

The first 125 kilometers are pan flat, with both intermediate sprints occurring before the road kicks up. The first climb on the menu is the Cat. 4 Castelnuovo. It’s followed by a few smaller ups and downs and then another flat stretch into the foot of the Cat. 3 Crosara climb, a short (3.7km) but very steep (9.1% average gradient) ascent with particularly vicious lower slopes. After coming back down from the Crosara, the peloton will hit a short but not-insignificant uncategorzied climb to Perarolo, one more descent, and then a short but very steep uphill finish that is rated as a Category 4 climb. The last kilomter has an average gradient of 7.1%, with slopes topping out at 11% in the very last stretch to the line.

The bumpy finale will make this yet another day of Giro d’Italia racing that could favor a breakaway, and with the peloton showing itself completely incapable of doing the necessary work to close down moves up the road, it’s hard to overstate the chances of breakaway attempts in this race. In any case, many of the punchier riders who will be favorites for success on this stage are the types who could get into a long-range move anyway. Whatever the lead group on the road looks like in the last few kilometers, expect to see a few attacks on the final climbs before the finish, which are steep enough to be great launching pads for aggressive riders.

Diego Ulissi has won a stage in this Giro already on a finish that wasn’t even as steep as this. With an 11% gradient at the end of this climb, the stage is perfectly designed for the punchy Italian, who can charge uphill like few others. Ulissi is also capable of getting into a breakaway, or getting involved in a move over one of the climbs that come before the finish.

Philippe Gilbert missed out on a golden opportunity on Stage 11 when his team was unable to cooperate with Orica-GreenEdge to reel in the breakaway move. He tried to solo clear of the bunch but it was far too late to make a difference. This finale suits him perfectly though, so he’ll get another chance, assuming he’s in the lead group on the road at the business end of Stage 12.

Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options here. I’m going to go out on a limb (against what the bookmakers’ might suggest) and say that this might be too steep for Michael Matthews. I think he’d prefer this to flatten out in the final few hundred meters, when instead it only kicks up even more. He’s still a top contender, but Simon Gerrans may be the better rider here. Regardless, it’s hard to say whether GreenEdge will see it that way, and they may throw their weight behind Matthews, which alone would make him dangerous, not even taking his obvious talents into account. Simon Clarke could be another card to play, perhaps best sent up the road earlier in the stage.

Juan José Lobato, like Matthews, will have his eye on besting some of the top climbers on this stage. It’s hard to say how well he’ll handle the gradient. He’s had a nice run so far this year on tougher finishes but nothing this steep. Giovanni Visconti could do very well here too—in fact, the way Movistar has been riding, I’d expect to see multiple riders in dark blue finish highly on this stage. Beñat Intxausti and Andrey Amador have looked strong so far in this Giro d’Italia too.

Fabio Felline is another rider whose performance is a bit hard to predict given the lack of data—he’s only been a main featured rider for Trek for a little while now, and while he’s had great success in similar finales, this is pretty steep. In any case, he should be in the mix.

Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa could certainly be up there as well—this isn’t a very long ascent to the line but coming after a few bumps in the road it will be a bit more difficult. The same is true for Alberto Contador—and don’t be surprised if one of them tries to get clear on one of the earlier climbs.

Stefano Pirazzi, Enrico Battaglin, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Carlos Betancur, Damiano Caruso, and Damiano Cunego are others who could get involved in the action on Stage 12.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Juan José Lobato

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 12 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 20, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Forlì › Imola – 153km

What looked set to be a very uninteresting Stage 10 turned quite interesting when a breakaway managed to stay clear, giving Nicola Boem a stage victory, and things got even crazier when Richie Porte lost nearly 3 minutes on the General Classification due to an untimely puncture and an ensuing penalization for receiving a wheel from a non-teammate. The interesting action should continue on Stage 11, which has the profile for plenty more compelling racing at the Giro d’Italia.

There are no long, brutal climbs, but it will be an exhausting day of truly constant up and down. There is a Cat. 3 climb almost from the gun, followed by three uncategorized climbs (and descents) that could easily merit at least Category 4 status in their own rights, and then another Cat. 3 before a descent to the foot of a climb that the riders will have to take on four consecutive times. The Tre Monti climb is apparently worthy of Category 4 status . . . but only on one of the four trips up, the penultimate one. It’s a little over 4km at an average over 4%, but it’s an irregular ascent with a few steeper stretches. After the first ascent, the riders will descend toward the Imola racetrack and cross over the finish line for the first time, and from there, they’ll embark on three laps in a circuit that will take them back up the Tre Monti and back down to the track.

The descent into the finish is not technical, but the downhill run from the top of the Tre Monti only flattens out inside the final km, though, so any ground lost on the climb and ensuing descent will be hard to make up before the final crossing of the finish line.

With so many climbs on the menu, it’s hard to see a sprint happening, for many reasons. First, the pure sprinters probably won’t make it too the finish. Categorized or not, there are some tough uphill challenges to overcome on Stage 11. What’s more, the profile is perfect for a long-range move, either the morning breakaway or, if that is swept up, later attacks on the climbs—it will be extremely difficult for the peloton to control this race, and the Giro’s peloton has not shown itself to be particularly interested in inter-team cooperation. Even if the day does somehow see a large, compact lead group coming into the finish, with less than a kilometer of flat running into the line, the surviving sprinters won’t have much of an opportunity to get into position for the final kick to the line, and it’s likely to get pretty messy. This one is a challenge to predict.

In terms of the potential victory-by-long-range scenario, Orica-GreenEdge has a number of riders they might send up the road, chief among them, Simon Gerrans and Simon Clarke. In recent seasons, Gerrans has made a name for himself by waiting for reduced sprints on hillier days (and he’ll of course be a danger in that scenario here), but he’s always had a great talent as a breakaway specialist, and he could try to get up the road here. Simon Clarke has spent plenty of time in breakaways in this race already, and will be a strong candidate again here.

Philippe Gilbert should be an obvious name for this sort of stage, given the profile. It will be a fierce fight to get into the breakaway, but his talent for climbing small hills like the ones that will kick off the racing on Stage 11 will give him a great chance to get involved if he goes for it.

Diego Ulissi has already won a stage in this race, showing off his excellent form right now. Like Gerrans, he’s got a great finishing kick, which means he’ll be deadly if he’s in the lead group at the end of the day—he can use his great climbing legs to stay at the front of a group over the last climb without necessarily needing to attack knowing that he can rely on the fast finish to win.

Tom-Jelte Slagter looked very strong on Stage 9 and will like the look of this profile, though it’s hard to pick one Cannondale-Garmin rider here with so many breakaway options among Tom Danielson, Davide Formolo, David Villella, and Ryder Hesjedal.

Simon Geschke, Sylvain Chavanel, Maciej Paterski, Adam Hansen, Giovanni Visconti, Stefano Pirazzi, Edoardo Zardini, Enrico Battaglin, Sonny Colbrelli, Grega Bole, and Rinaldo Nocentini are just some of the many other potential long-range victory candidates on this stage, most of whom will also be a dangerous if a reduced peloton contests this finish in a compact group.

Should this all come back together, Michael Matthews will be among the top names to add to the above list of stage victory candidates—Orica-GreenEdge really does have a wealth of options on this sort of profile. Trek’s Fabio Felline and Movistar’s Juan José Lobato are others who could get involved if everything goes their way; that is, if they can hold on over the difficult parcours, if the morning breakaway is swept up, and if no one gets clear on the final climb.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Simon Gerrans | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Diego Ulissi

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 11 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 19, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Civitanova Marche › Forlì – 200km

The peloton has now had its first official rest day, but Stage 10 should give at least the GC riders another relaxing day in Italy—the profile is not particularly challenging.

The first 100 kilometers of Stage 10 are almost completely flat. The next 30 kilometers offer a few very small climbs, including a single Cat. 4 ascent, but after that, it’s pancake-flat again all the way to the finish line in Forlì. A pair of intermediate sprint points late the day will offer a preview of the probable sprinters’ battle to come. The combination of a sharp right-hander with a little more than a kilometer to go and a sharp left hander inside the final kilometer will probably be the route’s most compelling feature, as it will make for a stressful finale.

This should be a day for a big bunch kick—anything else would be a massive failure by the teams of the quick men. André Greipel is the startlist’s top-name sprinter, and after poorly timing his finishing kick on Stage 2, he got things right and powered to the win on Stage 6 to stake his claim to favorite status in the Giro’s fast finishes. With a strong leadout and a pure focus on just this sort of stage, Greipel is the rider to watch—still, he’s prone to having a bad day here and there, and that means that plenty of other speedsters will have their eyes on the possibility of a win here.

Behind Greipel the picture is a bit less clear, with several riders looking to have similar chances to come away with a stage win here. Sacha Modolo, like Greipel, is extremely fast on his good days but also prone to disappearing on others. He’s one of the few riders here with a good chance of beating even an on-point André Greipel.

Elia Viviani doesn’t have as much leadout support as his rivals but he proved that that doesn’t mean he can’t compete when he won Stage 2. It will be interesting to see if he expends energy trying to nab red jersey points at the intermediate sprints, however—that may take a bit out of him late in the day. The same is true for Giacomo Nizzolo, who has been active at the intermediates so far. In any case, both are top options on this day.

Matteo Pelucchi has been practically anonymous in eight of the race’s nine stages so far . . . but he was runner-up to Greipel on Stage 6, and in a stage without any uphill challenges like Stage 10, he has another great opportunity. Moreno Hofland is another sprinter who has been a runner-up in a flat finish (on Stage 2) and he should be in the mix as well. Luka Mezgec has the always well-marshaled Giant-Alpecin leadout to help him into the final few kilometers, and he’s looked good so far.

Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Juan José Lobato, Manuel Belletti, and Nicola Ruffoni are others with a chance on this stage.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 10 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 19, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Benevento › San Giorgio del Sannio – 224km

Beñat Intxausti was the breakaway victor on an unpredictable Giro Stage 8, and the Stage 9 that follows will be even more unpredictable, and probably even more breakaway-friendly.

The riders will set out from Benevento and take on a few small ups and downs before coming to a brutal pairing of climbs. First they’ll hit the slopes of the overlong Monte Termino, a 20km Cat. 2 with a 4.2% average gradient. After the descent, the riders will immediately begin the Cat. 1 Colle Molella, 9.5km at an average gradient of 6.3%, but with a long steep stretch near the KOM marker—and after a brief flat section following the mountains points, the road continues to climb for a few more kilometers!

Then comes another descent and a long stretch of ups and downs before the third and final categorized climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Passo Serra, only 3.6km long but with an 8% average gradient. It will be a great launching pad for the aggressors, as it’s followed by a steep descent and then a short climb that leads into the mostly flat final 3km.

With climbs throughout, three major KOM opportunities, and a finish that probably won’t be all that enticing for the GC favorites, this is stage screams breakaway. Even if Astana or Tinkoff-Saxo or a team that has missed the break decide to set a high tempo late in the day, it will be extremely difficult to control the race on this profile. Stage 9 looks great for a punchy, aggressive rider, most likely from a long-range move, although the same type of rider would be favored if the peloton mops up the early breakaway as well. Regardless, as with any breakaway-friendly stage, this one will be very hard to predict.

Stefano Pirazzi was not in the breakaway on Stage 7 or Stage 8. It’s hard to imagine he won’t try to be in the early move here. He’s not the best climber in the race, and he isn’t the punchiest finisher, but he’s terrific on long, hilly days, and he finds an extra gear when he’s up the road. With a Giro KOM jersey and a Giro stage win in his palmarès, he knows how to ride on this kind of parcours, and if he can get into the breakaway, he will be extremely hard to beat.

Diego Ulissi already has a stage win in the race, and he’ll be looking for another here. He won’t be afraid to get into the breakaway, and if he’s at the lead group at the finish, he’ll be among the top favorites no matter who he’s with.

Philippe Gilbert doesn’t have any stage wins yet, but he has similar abilities on the short, steep climbs, and he’s been aggressive trying to get up the road so far in this race. A dropped chain ruined his chances on Stage 7, so he’ll have his eyes open for another chance on this profile that suits his punchy skillset. Simon Gerrans, 3rd on Stage 7, made his bones earlier in his career as a breakaway specialist, and although he may be better known for his killer instinct in reduced bunch sprints these days, he has the added dimension of being capable of winning from a far on a stage like this. Teammate Simon Clarke has already spent plenty of time in the breaks and will like the profile too.

Sylvain Chavanel, Edoardo Zardini, Adam Hansen, Beñat Intxausti, Simon Geschke, Carlos Betancur, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Darwin Atapuma, Ryder Hesjedal, and Esteban Chaves (now way behind on GC) are other potential protagonists who could get the chance to go from afar.

Giovanni Visconti is a special case deserving of his own paragraph. From the profile alone I might name him the top favorite for Stage 9, but when weighing his chances one must add a rather rare variable to the equation: he’s only 1:16 down on GC. It’s hard to tell whether the GC favorites will let him get up the road. Even if he misses the early break he’ll still have a chance from the pack, as he combines excellent climbing legs with a nice kick, but it’s a major question mark whether he’ll be given any room on this stage.

Of the riders less likely to be given any room to roam, in-form Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa are obvious choices with a steep late climb, as is Alberto Contador. Rigoberto Urán looks stronger than he did earlier on in the race and he sports a strong sprint if it comes to that. Damiano Caruso is also quick to the line.

And of course, keep an eye out for versatile fast-finishers Fabio Felline, Juan José Lobato, and Michael Matthews—all three could have a chance on Stage 9 depending on the way things play out.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Stefano Pirazzi | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Philippe Gilbert

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. Stage 9 is followed by a rest day, so check back on Monday for the preview of the next stage. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the next episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 16, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Fiuggi › Campitello Matese – 186km

After Diego Ulissi’s second victory for Lampre-Merida in three days, the peloton will take on the first Cat. 1 climb of the Giro d’Italia in Stage 8.

The 186km journey from Fiuggi to Campitello Matese involves a whole lot of up-and-down, though only two of the climbs are categorized. From the start there are a few rollers leading into the Cat. 2 Forca d’Acero, which is extremely long for an ascent of that rating: 26km long and with a 5% gradient, it will most certainly wear down even the most adept climbers. From there the road takes a generally downward path, interrupted by a few upward stretches of not-insignificant length, toward the town of Isernia. Then it’s another mid-size uncategorized climb before the challenging final test to Campitello Matese. 13km at 6.9%, it’s not an awful road to the top but it won’t be comfortable for anyone after so many climbs on the day.

The profile should be pretty enticing for the breakaway, what with the constant up-and-down, and it will be very difficult for the pack to keep the break on a tight leash. Then again, the GC riders will almost certainly want to put the pressure on each other to try to open up the leaderboard at the top a bit, which could make it hard for those up the road to stay out front. What’s more, the upcoming Stage 9 looks even more perfect for the breakaway, and it offers an extra KOM opportunity, so those in pursuit of the blue jersey may be content to wait. It seems like a 50-50 proposition as to whether this one goes to the bunch or a morning breakaway.

Among the GC contenders in the bunch, Fabio Aru should be the favorite for success here. He has the most incentive to get separation on these mountain stages given his time trial skills, which are weaker than those of Alberto Contador and Richie Porte. He’s also looked sharp so far, and he has a powerful team around him. Mikel Landa’s GC position makes for a great asset to the team—Astana could send him up the road in pursuit of the stage win as well.

Alberto Contador also looks strong, but it remains to be seen how well he’ll cope with the challenges of the day. He looked okay on Stage 7 but this is a bigger test. With an almost guaranteed breakaway to come followed by a rest day and then a sprinters’ stage, he may try to take this easy. Teammate Roman Kreuziger is also high up on GC, and could be given a green light to go stagehunting here if he’s feeling good.

Richie Porte is the other obvious candidate. He’s climbed so well this early in this season that he’s got to be among the top favorites again here. The climbing on the day suits him quite well. Expect Porte to be aggressive trying to put his stamp on the race.

Esteban Chaves may get some leeway if he goes on the attack, and he’s looked good, if not fantastic, so far in the race. The same goes for Damiano Caruso and Darwin Atapuma; both are within 2 minutes on GC and strong enough climbers that it’s hard to tell whether the bunch would let them get clear or not, but if they do they’ll be dangerous—Atapuma in particular has looked great on the climbs this year.

Giovanni Visconti is amazingly within 1 minute of the Giro d’Italia race lead. He shouldn’t be a threat to the pink jersey in Milan, so despite his high position at the moment, he may be given the opportunity to go from afar—if he does, watch out, as he looks quite strong right now.

Stefano Pirazzi is no GC threat at all and he’s been aggressive, if not particularly successful, so far in this race. There are mountain points on offer here and a chance for Pirazzi to make his mark—I do wonder, though, whether he may want to keep his powder for the perfect breakaway day that awaits on Sunday instead, especially if other purer climbers manage to get into the Stage 8 early move. Edoardo Zardini and Francesco Bongiorno are other options for Bardiani-CSF. Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec looks okay so far in the race but he’s down on GC after a poor opening TTT and then getting caught out in the crash-filled Stage 2 finale. He could try to go for one here. Ryder Hesjedal might as well; alternatively his teammate Tom Danielson has been very strong in the breakaways all year, winning the KOM jersey at the Volta a Catalunya, and this could be a nice opportunity for him.

Franco Pellizotti, Carlos Betancur, Igor Anton, Ilnur Zakarin, Ion Izagirre, and Beñat Intxausti are others on the very long list of potential long-range victory candidates.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Fabio Aru | 2. Richie Porte | 3. Darwin Atapuma

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 8 for the preview of the next stage.

-Dane Cash

May 15, 2015