Tag: Predictions

GP Ouest-France 2014 Preview

Also commonly known by its older name, the Grand Prix de Plouay (Plouay being the Breton town in which it starts and finishes), the GP Ouest-France is a long and hilly circuit race. 229.1 kilometers from start to finish, the 2014 edition involves eight laps around a 26.9 kilometer circuit, followed by a single, final lap of a reduced section (13.9 km) of the larger circuit to close things out.

The Route

The route will take the peloton on several repeated trips up and over some short but challenging climbs; almost immediately after the beginning of each full lap, the pack will hit the Côte du Lezot, a little over a kilometer in length and with much of that distance at a gradient in the realm of 6%. From the top, it’s a descent followed by a long gentle ascent up to the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois and, roughly, the midpoint of the circuit. After a flat section and then a quick downhill run, the pack will take on the Côte de Ty Marrec, only about a kilometer in length but with a long stretch in the middle nearing 10%.

The main lap, 26.9 kilometers in length with a few uphill challenges along the way.

The final lap will still look quite familiar, but with a twist: the less challenging trip to the the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois will not be a part of the last lap, which cuts out almost half the distance of the full lap, thereby squeezing the ascents of the Côte du Lezot and the Côte de Ty Marrec closer together on the course for the final go-round.

The final lap, with both of the day’s tough climbs and less time for recovery in between.

The profile makes this a very open race, where a sprint finish is possible, but also where the aggressive, punchy types could conceivably escape from the bunch, most likely on the final climb of the Ty Marrec, and grab the victory for themselves. The 2013 edition ended in a sprint that was not dramatically reduced in number of contenders, though the long day did take its toll, helping Filippo Pozzato to nab a victory over other riders who would typically be faster in a sprint. A group finish may very well happen again in 2014, but the slightly amended final lap could make things interesting, reducing the amount of time that those who struggle on the Côte du Lezot will have before the next ascent begins and putting even more pressure on the heavier purer sprinter-types. Winning this race will require either the ability to charge up the steep stuff to escape the pack, the speed to outsprint them in a sprint, or some combination of both, to survive any selection and then outmatch any other survivors at the line. Ardennes-style specialists and strong-climbing sprinters are all over the startlist, with some teams bringing multiple riders for the variety of possible scenarios.

The Contenders

Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge is one of the most capable riders in a post-climb sprint in the entire peloton, and he showed in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, where he outsprinted Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel on his way to 3rd place, that he is on blazing form. He’s fast enough, especially when his opponents have begun to tire, that he’s even got a chance against the purer sprinters should a large group reach the line together, and he’s also capable of going on a solo strike if it looks to be the best move. As a true specialist for this exact sort of race, capable of winning in a number of ways, Simon Gerrans will be a top favorite. Teammate Jens Keukeleire is another excellent card to play on this rolling profile, having shown nice form with his first GC Top 10 in a WorldTour race at the recent Eneco Tour.

As an excellent escape artist, a strong climber, and a capable sprinter, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet also has all the tools necessary to contend in this race, and his skillset was on full display in last year’s edition when he put in a late solo move and survived until he was well inside the final kilometer. A tougher finale this year may be all he needs to turn that near miss into a victory. Of all the riders in this race capable of sticking an attack, Van Avermaet, who showed his good form with an Eneco Tour victory this month, seems among the likeliest to succeed, but he can’t be counted out in a reduced bunch sprint either. Young Silvan Dillier, 9th in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, is having a great year and could be another card for BMC to play in Plouay.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff comes into the race riding high, having the best season of his career and fresh off his recent win at the Vattenfall Cyclassics. Always a strong sprinter with a knack for the bunch gallops coming after longer days in the saddle, Kristoff has taken his game to a new level this year, climbing particularly well and holding up over some extremely lengthy one-day races to put in top results. He doesn’t have the same uphill ability as Simon Gerrans, but if the punchier types aren’t able to make this race selective enough to drop him, they’ll have a hard time outsprinting him at the end of the day (and so will any other sprinting specialist who manages to survive). Given the difficulty of the parcours, it’s not a given the Kristoff will stick with the lead group to the end to contest victory, but if he is there for a bunch kick, it will be hard to look past anyone else. Luca Paolini will be with him, and the Italian veteran has proven a valuable second throughout the year.

Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory racing is another top sprinter in attendance who could contend for victory if he can stay in good position over the last few ascents. Nizzolo came agonizingly close to winning the GP Ouest-France in 2013; he was well ahead of every other sprinter in the race with the finish line only a hundred meters away before Pippo Pozzato, who had waited much longer to start his sprint, passed him in the final few meters. As Nizzolo told VeloHuman this week, he’s extremely motivated to take the win in Plouay this year, and coming off of a runner-up performance in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, he is on sharp form. He’s one of the few riders in this race who has the top-end speed to challenge Kristoff should it come down to bunch sprint. Trek is fully committed to his chances, and Stijn Devolder and Danilo Hondo make up a strong support squad.

Giant-Shimano has the talented Luka Mezgec for a potential group finish. It won’t be easy to keep the young fast man at the front of affairs, but if he’s there, he’ll be a strong contender as one of the top-tier sprinters in the race, with some strong leadout riders for support.

Lotto Belisol has quite hand of cards to play, and it would be a big surprise if they didn’t have at least one rider in the Top 10 at the end of the day. Jurgen Roelandts is strong in a fast finish after a long day in the saddle; he was 4th here last year. Tony Gallopin has been away from competition for a few weeks, but he is a speedy finisher with a particular talent for getting into late moves. Tim Wellens showed immense strength in winning the Eneco Tour this year and he could get aggressive in the last lap. Jelle Vanendert is a specialist on the classics-style climbs who could try to get into a move over the Ty Marrec. It’s very hard to pick any one rider out of this group as the likeliest to succeed, but whatever happens, Lotto has several elite options for this GP Ouest-France.

OPQS is another well-staffed squad with plenty of options. Gianni Meersman is probably their best, on good form and particularly dangerous in a reduced sprint, with Matteo Trentin as a great alternative in that scenario should Meersman miss out, but Jan Bakelants is in good shape as well, and he’ll be among the top candidates to break clear of the pack in the last lap. Michal Kwiatkowski is on unknown form after a long break from racing, but he deserves a mention in any hilly one-day race, given a skillset perfectly tailored to the Plouay parcours.

Sky brings a strong one-two punch in Ben Swift and 2012 winner Edvald Boasson Hagen. Swift has the ability to hang on over some tough climbs to fight it out in the sprint. After a strong RideLondon, he didn’t perform up to his expectations in last week’s Vattenfall Cyclassics, but he told VH on Friday that he is feeling good at the moment, and that his rough day on the bike in Hamburg may have simply been a bit of training fatigue after a hard midweek block. This parcours certainly suits him. Edvald Boasson Hagen hasn’t shown the sprinting ability this year that he once displayed, but he’s still dangerous on a hilly parcours that could very well split up the pack.

AG2R has last year’s 3rd place finisher Samuel Dumoulin for a potential sprint, and they also have Blel Kadri, Romain Bardet and Christophe Riblon if they want to take an aggressive approach. Europcar has a very strong long-distance specialist in Cyril Gautier, and a top-notch sprinter in Bryan Coquard. Garmin-Sharp also has one strong rider for a sprint in Tyler Farrar and a few others who could look to get aggressive in classics specialist Sebastian Langeveld and in the versatile Tom Jelte-Slagter, a late addition to the startlist who is on uncertain form, but who does have the skillset to put in an excellent result on a profile like this if he’s in good shape. Astana could back Borut Bozic or Francesco Gavazzi in a bunch kick, or they could try to send Enrico Gasparotto, Andriy Grivko, or Maxim Iglinskiy up the road.

Sylvain Chavanel is a rider who could be very dangerous if he can escape from the pack, and he is most definitely on good form after winning the Tour du Poitou-Charentes this week. IAM Cycling also has Heinrich Haussler if this ends in a bunch gallop. Lampre-Merida’s young sprinting talent Davide Cimolai was an impressive 7th in Hamburg last week, and could be looking to get involved in a potential sprint here. Rui Costa is also on the startlist and obviously a dangerous rider on this profile, but he hasn’t raced since withdrawing from the Tour. Cannondale’s Elia Viviani landed a Top 10 in this race last year and if he can make it to the line, he’s shown nice form recently; versatile Marco Marcato will be a nice alternative. Movistar could try to set up a strong JJ Lobato for the sprint, with Fran Ventoso as a nice alternative. Romain Feillu of Bretagne – Séché Environnement has finished in the Top 10 in this race twice and could be another outside contender in a sprint. Matti Breschel of Tinkoff-Saxo is another who could be in the mix in a fast finish. Bardiani-CSF has options with the very speedy Nicola Ruffoni, the speedy and also strong-climbing Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli, and the always-dangerous-from-afar Stefano Pirazzi. Fellow Pro Continental Italian outfit Neri Sottoli has Simone Ponzi, who excels in the hilly circuit races, and Mauro Finetto, a good sprinter who can handle a few bumps. FDJ’s Arthur Vichot will like this rolling profile. Belkin has a strong squad with Lars Petter Nordhaug, Barry Markus, and Lars Boom all making the start. Julien Simon of Cofidis specializes in profiles like this and could be an outsider in a reduced sprint. Wanty – Groupe Gobert has talented veteran Bjorn Leukemans and in-form Jean-Pierre Drucker as cards to play.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Alexander Kristoff
Other Top Contenders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Gianni Meersman, Ben Swift, Luka Mezgec, Sylvain Chavanel, Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis of the race.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Lomophoto56.

August 30, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Baeza › Albacete – 207 km

After a bumpy Stage 7 won by Alessandro Di Marchi, and with Sunday’s mountain stage looming, the peloton will get to enjoy a day of flat roads on Stage 8. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Baeza to Albacete, and the final 60 kilometers are more or less downhill, though there is a short uphill section of less than a kilometer right around the 3-km-to-go mark. There are a few roundabouts and some hard corners, but then the final 900 meters run straight to the line. Overall, Stage 8 is the longest stage in this Vuelta at 207 kilometers, but without many uphill challenges, the length of the route shouldn’t alter the outcome too drastically.

A sprint finish seems more than likely on the profile, setting up another probable showdown between FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni and Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb. There are reasons to like both for stage honors. Degenkolb took the most recent head-to-head battle on Stage 5, and even had Bouhanni made better positioning choices in the finale (he ended up boxed out on the barriers behind and to the outside of Degenkolb), it’s not totally a given that he would have passed the German anyway. Degenkolb is very fast right now, and a longer day than usual will further favor the Paris-Roubaix runner-up as well. Still, Bouhanni’s typically top-notch ability to fight for position will help as the peloton passes through a few late roundabouts. Moreover, Degenkolb hit the deck on Stage 7, and it’s unclear how he’ll feel the day after. If both riders are at their best, this should be very close, (and the duo is significantly faster than any of their other rivals), but Bouhanni has a slight edge as the favorite for Stage 8 with uncertainty around Degenkolb’s condition.

Familiar names make the list of other potential contenders. Roberto Ferrari, who has not made it to many sprint finishes yet in this race, should jump at this opportunity to contest a bunch gallop on a very flat stage. He is still quite fast. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland was 3rd behind Degenkolb and Bouhanni on Stage 5, showing his potential. Another good result could be in the cards here. The versatile Michael Matthews wants to do well on the pure sprint stages as well as the hilly ones, and although he hasn’t landed the kinds of results he’s hoped for on the flat days in this Vuelta a España just yet, he does have an impressive turn of speed. If he can nail down the timing and the positioning, he could be in the mix on Stage 8. Astana’s Andrea Guardini, IAM Cycling’s Matteo Pelucchi, and Lotto Belisol’s Jens Debusschere have not featured in the sprint finishes in this race as often as they would have hoped so far, but this parcours should put them in position to challenge for stage honors. Tom Boonen, Jasper Stuyven, Vicente Reynes, Yauheni Hutarovich, Oscar Gatto (or Peter Sagan, should he decide to go for it), Gerald Ciolek, and Francesco Lasca are others who could get involved in the probable bunch gallop to the line.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Roberto Ferrari

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 8, so stay tuned for more. Also, be sure to come back soon for the preview of the upcoming GP Ouest-France in Plouay, and in the meantime, check out VeloHuman’s recent interviews with two likely protagonists of that race, Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory Racing and Ben Swift of Team Sky.

-Dane Cash

August 29, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Alhendín › Alcaudete – 169 km

Alejandro Valverde won a tough Stage 6 that saw the first serious GC action of the race, as several big names lost ground on the day’s final ascent. Stage 7 shouldn’t be as decisive for the General Classification, but it is a hilly one, packed with smaller climbs that, when taken all together, will exact a toll on the legs, even if the profile may not look particularly brutal from a categorized climb standpoint. The peloton will at least be allowed to ease into the bumpy parcours with about 30 kilometers of relatively flat roads to start the stage, but after that it’s an undulating journey basically all the way to the line, starting with the Cat. 3 Alto de Illora. With around 60 kilometers to go, the riders will reach the bottom of the Alto Ahillo climb, a long slog of 12.1 kilometers at a 4% average grade, and the Cat. 2 will likely find out some tired legs at this point in the day. On the way up, the riders will pass through finishing city of Alcaudete for the first time. From the top of the climb, though, it’s still nearly 50 kilometers to the end of the stage, a stretch that is, by and large, mostly downhill, at least until about the 15-km-to-go mark, when the road gently angles upward again. The incline becomes more pronounced toward the very end of the day, with the final 5 kilometers averaging roughly 4%. The uphill finish is not categorized in any way, but it’s certainly steep enough to bring the punchier specialists to the fore.

The constantly up-and-down parcours of Stage 7, coupled with a finish that won’t be all that appetizing for the sprinters, will make this an enticing opportunity for the long-range opportunists. It will be difficult for the peloton to control the race with this profile, and motivation in the pack to do so may not be all that high, given the difficult finale. Still, it’s not a certainty that the escape will survive, thanks to an especially impressive list of quick men on this startlist who also have strong climbing legs; several teams do have riders who will find the possibility of a final uphill sprint to their liking, and if enough miss out on the break, the scales will tip in the favor of the pack.

As is the case on most breakaway-friendly days, there is no real outright favorite. A few names stand out as possible protagonists, however. Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge is certainly one. The Stage 7 finish suits him perfectly, with the gradient to slow the other quick men. If his team can keep the breakaway in check over the undulating profile, Matthews will be the rider to beat at the end of the day.

BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is another obvious candidate on this profile. In an uphill gallop, few are better, and he showed decent form placing 7th in Stage 5’s flatter finale. With the World Championships approaching, he is likely to get stronger and stronger as this race goes on.

Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb would prefer a slightly less steep final kilometer, but he’s still a dangerous option on this stage if things stay together for a sprint. His team has several strong engines for this sort of profile to give him support throughout the day.

As a team, Belkin has a lot of flexibility for this one, with several riders who could play joker to some more obvious candidates for stage honors. For one, Moreno Hofland is dangerous an uphill sprint. If he doesn’t make it to the line with the lead group, though, Paul Martens might, and the veteran German also has a quick finish. If things are too selective for both, GC man Wilco Kelderman packs a speedy kick of his own.

The list of other fast finishers who could contend for Stage 7 if the break is reeled in includes Lloyd Mondory, Filippo Pozzato, Vicente Reyes, Daniele Bennati, Jasper Stuyven and Fabio Felline, Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, and possibly even Nacer Bouhanni, who is climbing reasonably well in this Vuelta. GC riders like Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Daniel Moreno, Cadel Evans, and Joaquim Rodriguez could be in the mix as well.

Predicting who will try to win this stage from afar is quite difficult, but a few riders come to mind as potential contenders should they make it into a long-distance move. Alexandr Kolobnev will like the finish and he’s a rider who is capable of spending the day off the front. Luis Leon Sanchez has not featured too prominently in many big races lately, but this profile should suit his skillset and he could try to get into the day’s breakaway. Adam Hansen has shown an interest in getting out front in this Vuelta, and he should manage the climbs well. Tony Martin is a danger whenever the profile is friendly to solo artists. Peter Sagan has already tried to get into a break in this race, and this could be a day for him to try his legs again; Cannondale has Oscar Gatto and Damiano Caruso as well should Sagan not be up for this. Bob Jungels, Damiano Cunego, Anthony Roux, and Ronaldo Nocentini are just a few others who could have success on Stage 7 if they make it into a breakaway.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Alexandr Kolobnev

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 7, so stay tuned.

August 28, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Benalmádena › La Zubia – 167.1 km

John Degenkolb took a second straight sprint victory in Stage 5, but his sprinting rivals will have to wait a little while for a shot at revenge, as the Vuelta hits its first serious uphill test in Stage 6. Things will start out calm, as the peloton will set out from Benalmádena and take on over almost 50 kilometers of relatively flat coastal roads before heading inland. Not long after the route changes direction, the road kicks upward to climb the Alto de Zafarraya, a challenging Category 2 of 12.3 kilometers at 5.7%. After the KOM point, the climbing continues on and off over a stretch of rolling roads (with the Category 3 Alto de los Bermejales among the uphill sections that the pack must overcome). Things flatten out again with about 40 km to go, and they stay that way for a while as the peloton heads toward Granada. The riders will pass through the outskirts of town and then the city proper, hitting a pair of intermediate sprint points along the way, but then the route will take them southeast to challenging finale on the Alto Cumbres Verdes, the first Category 1 climb of the Vuelta a España. It is only 4.6 kilometers in length, but it has an average gradient of 7.8%, and that number doesn’t tell the whole story either. Things get particularly steep after the first kilometer, with a significant stretch that hits almost 13% coming between kilometers 1 and 2, and not a whole lot of respite after that, as things stay very steep all the way to the line.

The first real climbers’ day of the Vuelta, Stage 6 should see some GC action on the final slopes. The Cumbres Verdes climb is a tough enough uphill test to open up gaps between the finishers, and the top contenders for the red jersey will want to making strong opening statements on the high gradients.

The day’s breakaway will have a chance of going the distance on the profile, but they will also have a few factors weighing against them. A very long section of flat before the final climb will significantly boost the chances of the chasing pack, and the punchy GC riders will have extra motivation to reel in anyone up the road thanks to the bonus seconds on offer at the finish. If the red jersey hunters spend the final hour of the race watching each other and not injecting the pace, a strong rider off the front will have a nice opportunity for stage honors, but otherwise, a showdown among the big-name climbers should be on tap.

Though the final few kilometers are very steep, this is a short climb, and that will play into the hands of the riders who can find an extra gear for a brief charge up a high gradient. Joaquim Rodriguez will love this finish. He is on terrific form right now and with motivation through the roof, he’ll be hard to beat on this terrain. Teammate Daniel Moreno is also particularly well-suited to this challenging ascent.

Movistar’s Nairo Quintana would prefer a longer finishing climb, but he has the skillset to pull out an advantage whenever the gradient nears 10%, and with the form he showed in the Vuelta a Burgos, he will be hard to catch if he goes on the attack in the Stage 6. Like Purito, Quintana also has a particularly dangerous teammate in Alejandro Valverde, who lost a few seconds on Stage 3 and will be eager to get back onto the same time as Quintana. It won’t be easy to counter Movistar’s one-two punch.

Chris Froome showed on Stage 3 that he’s feeling strong in this Vuelta, and he knows he can’t afford to wait to gain ground on his rivals after losing some time in the opening TTT, even though this isn’t the sort of long slogging climb that one might traditionally associate with his skillset. If he is truly at his best and planning on fighting for the overall victory in this race, he will be a strong contender on this stage.

Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin likes the high-gradient finales and showed with a near-victory on Stage 3 that he’s on great form. With Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky both essentially out of the GC picture after being caught out in crosswinds on Stage 5, Garmin will be fully committed to Martin’s ambitions in this race.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador has been downplaying his aspirations in this race, but he has not showed much weakness so far, and this will be an opportunity to see just how well he has recovered from his leg injury. Obviously, if he is in good shape, this steep summit finish suits him well. Fabio Aru is a terrific uphill charger who should like the Stage 6 profile, but form is a bit of an unknown right now. If he’s feeling strong, he’ll be dangerous. Rigoberto Uran‘s form is also a question mark, but if he’s at his best he should be able to be in the mix. Warren Barguil, Samuel Sanchez, Cadel Evans, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Wilco Kelderman, and Johan Esteban Chaves are others who could get involved for stage honors.

At this point in the race, with so many strong climbers still relatively well-placed on GC, there aren’t a whole lot of riders that stand out as strong long-range candidates on a climb like this. Julian Arredondo is one, but he has not appeared to be at full strength just yet (though if he does get out, he’ll obviously be a danger). Louis Meintjes, Adam Yates, Damiano Cunego, and Kenny Elissonde are others who might have a chance at Stage 6 if they are allowed up the road.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 6, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 27, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Priego de Córdoba › Ronda – 180 km

After a Stage 4 won convincingly in a bunch sprint by John Degenkolb, Stage 5 of the Vuelta a España looks likely to be another one for the bunch gallopers. The pack will set out from Priego de Córdoba and then take on 150 kilometers without a single categorized climb before reaching the bottom of a lone Category 3. It’s a long uphill ride at 12.5 kilometers, but the average gradient is only a bit over 3%. From the top, it’s about 15 kilometers, mostly on a gentle downhill and without too many twists or turns, to the town of Ronda. The finishing straight is a little over half a kilometer in length, and very subtly uphill.

With a mountain stage looming, the sprinters will hope for one more chance at glory on Stage 5 before things start to get too difficult on the road. Their teams shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping things under control on this profile, and the day’s solitary categorized challenge isn’t particularly steep; it will be hard for anyone to get enough separation on the climb to hold out over a long flat run to the line. That said, it’s likely that some of the heavier sprinters could but put under a bit of pressure if the pace is high going over the Cat. 3; it’s not a legbreaker but riding on an incline for over 10 kilometers in this heat is not a comfortable trip for anyone.

Given the likelihood of a bunch finish, Stage 5 should come down to a high-speed showdown between Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb. With a slight gradient in the final few hundred meters and fewer technical challenges in the run-in than were present on Stage 2 (challenges that might give the tenacious Bouhanni the positioning advantage), this looks like a good opportunity for Degenkolb to challenge the young Frenchman. Degenkolb will need every ounce of power he has, but he blew away the field on Stage 4, showing just how strong he is right now.

Michael Matthews is a fast finisher in any scenario and the very slight incline in the finale could give him an edge here. Astana’s Andrea Guardini had a great run-up to this Vuelta and in a sprinters’ battle royale, he’s a contender. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is still gaining experience in the positioning game, but he beat both Degenkolb and Bouhanni in this year’s Paris-Nice and he looks strong right now, and Stage 5’s finish should suit him.

Lampre-Merida’s Roberto Ferrari is not one of the more versatile quick men in the pack, but if he can make it over the Cat. 3 without too much trouble, he should be in the mix as well for stage honors. In Maximiliano Richeze and Filippo Pozzato, Lampre does have an impressive squad of supporters or possible alternatives. IAM Cycling has a pair of nice options in Matteo Pelucchi and Stage 4 2nd place finisher Vicente Reynes. The list of other outside contenders for what is likely to be a sprint finish also includes Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Yauheni Hutarovich, Jasper Stuyven, Jens Debusschere, and Lloyd Mondory.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 5, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 26, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Mairena del Alcor › Córdoba – 164.7 km

The third stage of the Vuelta a España saw Michael Matthews outsprinting some real GC talents (among them, Dan Martin and Joaquim Rodriguez) to take a victory and the red jersey. Stage 4 is another in which the presence of some late uphill challenges could make things interesting. The stage starts out very flat, and continues that way for over a hundred kilometers. The first notable topograhic feature of the day, a Category 3 climb, will be crested at around kilometer 110. Then it’s another flat section before a Cat. 2 of about 8 km at an average gradient a little under 5% that kicks off at approximately kilometer 130. From the top there are only about 25 kilometers left on the stage, which will involve a flat section after the climb, a high-speed descent, and then a flat run-in to Córdoba and a very slightly uphill finishing drag.

As was the case on the third stage, there are several versatile fast-finishers here whose teams will be interested in keeping the day’s break in check for a sprint. The Category 2 climb won’t make it easy to control the race, but a concerted effort at organization will have a good chance at keeping any long-range hopefuls from getting too far ahead, especially with a few kilometers of flat before the finish. A group finish seems like a strong possibility, though the field may be reduced by the time the pack passes under the flamme rouge.

Nacer Bouhanni put in a very impressive ride on Stage 3 to finish 8th, ahead of several climbing powerhouses. His performance on the late incline shows considerable improvement in the climbing department, and while it won’t be an easy task to hold on over the Category 2 test on Stage 4, it would be unwise to count Bouhanni out the way he’s riding right now. If he makes it over the top with the pack, or at least close enough behind them to latch back on before the finish, he’ll be the odds-on favorite for the sprint.

While Bouhanni delivered a surprise performance on the third stage, John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano struggled on the final slope. Bad days are a reality in this sport, though, and the challenges on the menu for Stage 4 look to be of the sort that Degenkolb can typically handle. If he holds on, and if this comes down to a sprint, he has few rivals in this race in terms of top speed.

Red jersey wearer Michael Matthews will hope the injection of uphill pace on the Cat. 2 will drop the purer sprinters. He’s obviously on top form now, and if the group is whittled down even a little, he’ll be a favorite in a reduced bunch.

Peter Sagan would be an obvious candidate for victory, but he does not appear to be interested in contesting stage wins in this race. Oscar Gatto seems to be the Cannondale’s designated rider, and this is a good profile for him.

Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is well-suited to sprints that follow hillier days. Teammate Paul Martens looked strong on Stage 3 as well. Lloyd Mondory is another versatile quick finisher who put in a good result (7th) on the third stage. Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Daniele Bennati, Jasper Stuyven, Filippo Pozzato, Philippe Gilbert, and Nathan Haas are others with nice finishing kicks who prefer the more difficult days, while Jens Debusschere, Andrea Guardini, Roberto Ferrari, Yauheni Hutarovich, and Matteo Pelucchi will all be among the top contenders if they can survive the bumpy journey to the line.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 4, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 25, 2014