Tag: Predictions

Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Armagh > Dublin – 187 km

The rain continued on Stage 2 but the sprinters were not deterred. A small cast of breakers including Maarten Tjallingii did a great job to stay out front till the very end, but the peloton reeled them in in the last few minutes. Cannondale and Trek took the front, and then Giant-Shimano took over, looking perfectly positioned for a Kittel leadout in the last kilometer. Orica-GreenEdge came around them late, but Marcel Kittel was unfazed. After the final turn, he sprinted up the left side of the road and no one could match his engine. He nabbed his first Giro stage win rather handily, with Bouhanni, Nizzolo, and Viviani behind. In 8th place on the day, Michael Matthews moved ahead of teammate Svein Tuft just slightly in the GC and will wear the pink jersey tomorrow. Ultimately, Stage 2 was a wet, nervous day, but the final results were unsurprising, with most of the expected names featuring in the sprint.

Stage 3 takes the Giro d’Italia into the Republic of Ireland, kicking off in Armagh but finishing in Dublin. It’s got a few early bumps (two Cat. 4 climbs) but once the race leaves Northern Ireland the road flattens out a fair bit. Without any major tests on the profile, the weather, potentially very windy and rainy, will offer the biggest challenge to the riders.

Conditions could make things unpredictable, but the bunch was generally able to avoid trouble on Stage 2 and will hopefully manage to stay clear of danger on the final day of racing outside of Italy. A bunch sprint is again likely, and with even fewer lumps and fewer overall kilometers, Marcel Kittel may be an even bigger favorite. The way he was able to dominate today’s finish inspires confidence in his chances of repeating. There is a sharp bend at about the kilometer-to-go point, but after that it’s a pretty clear run to the finish line, and it’s hard to see many challengers taking on the big German in the final drag. As usual, should he falter early in the day, Luka Mezgec becomes Giant’s go-to guy.

Unsurprisingly, and probably unexcitingly, the riders placing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the first sprint stage will be my 2nd, 3rd, and 4th favorites for Stage 3. Nacer Bouhanni showed that he’s in great shape on his way to runner-up honors. He’s a powerful sprinter who will like the look of Stage 3. Giacomo Nizzolo appears strong and fully recovered from his early season injury, and his leadout is also very quick. As a note, his Stage 2 result bodes well for later in the Giro: I think he and Viviani are more likely to hang on through tough mountain stages than Kittel and Bouhanni, which could set up a few showdowns between the Italian fast men if/when their rivals abandon the race. Speaking of Elia Viviani, his Cannondale squad probably did a little too much work a little too early for today’s finish, and he still managed to come through for 4th, so look for him again tomorrow.

Michael Matthews will wear pink on the road to Dublin but I found his 8th place a bit underwhelming given his ability and his leadout’s excellent position. I don’t think he loves racing in the rain. We’ll see if he can improve his position tomorrow. Roberto Ferrari‘s performance was the opposite—impressive given recent results (or lack thereof) and Lampre’s unimpressive leadout. Another flat day of sprinting, shorter than today’s, will be appetizing for the 31-year-old. Sky’s Ben Swift continues to show just how strong he is right now, mixing it up with the very best in the race. Like Matthews, he’ll look to place as highly as possible on these days to prepare for later stages in which the small number of faster riders might be out of contention. He seems to be Sky’s go-to guy for the sprints ahead of the also fast Edvald Boasson Hagen. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar is another rider who will be in the mix tomorrow. Alessandro Petacchi, meanwhile, seemed content riding purely in a support role for Stage 2. With another windy day on tap, the OPQS rider might make a nice outside challenger, but he didn’t even contend today and might not for Stage 3 either.

Two of the three real outsiders I named in the Stage 2 preview finished in the top 10 (Manuel Belletti, 6th, and Davide Appollonio 9th). The third, Francesco Chicchi, came back from a very late mechanical to finish 12th, which is pretty impressive, though he did have a bit of team car assistance. They’ll be outsiders again for Stage 3, along with the likes of Bardiani’s Nicola Ruffoni, Belkin’s Jetse Bol and Movistar’s Fran Ventoso.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! The peloton gets a rest day after the Dublin finish. Keep an eye out for the preview of Stage 4, which kicks off in Giovinazzo on Tuesday. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

May 10, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Belfast > Belfast – 219 km

Heavy favorites Orica-GreenEdge probably didn’t need much help on Day 1, but they got it anyway, starting early enough to avoid some pouring rain. Their time withstood spirited efforts from Team BMC and Omega Pharma-Quick Step, putting Svein Tuft into the pink jersey for Stage 2. Movistar turned in a disappointing performance in the wet weather that left Nairo Quintana almost a minute back on rivals Rigoberto Uran and Cadel Evans. Uran and Evans have even bigger gap (about a minute and a half) on Joaquim Rodriguez, whose Katusha squad had a rough day. But by far the biggest story of Stage 1 was the nasty crash that took down Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin and three other riders. Martin lost control on what appeared to be a rainslicked manhole cover, and went down very hard, breaking his collarbone and ultimately abandoning the race. After a heartbreaking crash ended his hope of winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Martin’s fortunes in 2014 have turned even worse. The would-be GC contender (and member of the VH pre-race Top 10) saw the biggest goal of his season slip away in the blink of an eye. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal was not one of those who crashed, but the squad had already dropped one of their members earlier in the course, and as team time trials are judged according to the performance of the fifth best rider, Hesjedal and the others who survived the incident were forced to stop and wait for Fabian Wegmann to catch back up and bring their number to five before they could continue. Rolling across the line in last place and almost three and a half minutes down, Hesjedal’s GC hopes are already dashed as well.

After an eventful opening chrono, road racing begins in earnest Saturday morning. Stage 2 also begins and ends in Belfast. It’s a 219 kilometer loop with only a pair of Category 4 climbs to challenge the peloton. The profile won’t provide many opportunities for riders to get away, and this early in the race, GC teams will look to marshal breakaways quickly. However, the first sprint stage of a Grand Tour is always a hectic affair, and the jockeying for position will be aggressive. Furthermore, it could rain, and winds will be high on the coastal roads. Today’s conditions proved perilous, and not just for Garmin; no one else got into any serious incidents but a number of other teams had riders slipping and sliding around the corners. With a high intensity sprint stage on tap for tomorrow, things could get hairy. It will no doubt be a nervous journey from start to finish.

Should everyone manage to stay upright, this stage is very likely to end in a bunch sprint. Without many obstacles to slow him down, Marcel Kittel is the heavy favorite. Kittel was the best sprinter at last year’s Tour de France; in this Giro, without either of the sport’s other two top fast men, the gap to the next best sprinter is significant. He also benefits from a team completely committed to his cause—and GSH knows how to set their sprinters up for victory. In the event that Kittel does somehow get dropped before the final kilometers, Luka Mezgec is an attractive second option, on nice form this year.

The two men with the best chance to take on the GSH juggernaut will be Cannondale’s Elia Viviani and FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni. Viviani is coming off a Tour of Turkey in which he beat Mark Cavendish in two stages, so it will be interesting to see him matched up against another of the top finishers in the game. Bouhanni has already collected several wins this season, but most of them have come against lower level fields. We’ll see how he does against Grand Tour competition.

Michael Matthews will hope to be the next pink jersey wearer for Orica-GreenEdge. Prognosticators often focus on his versatility, but don’t forget that he really does have the top end speed to be in the mix on a sprint stage. The also versatile Ben Swift of Team Sky looks very sharp this year. On the other hand, it’s always a possibility that Sky will go with Edvald Boasson Hagen, also speedy. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo seems to be back on form after his collarbone injury, and he has a nice team around him as well. Alessandro Petacchi rides for an OPQS outfit that knows how to handle the crosswinds. Should the conditions shake up the state of affairs on the stage, Petacchi could be a dangerous contender, and coming off a strong TTT, there is a slight chance that he could find himself in the pink jersey if he is among those benefitting from bonus seconds on the day. Garmin-Sharp will be shifting their focus to stage wins now that Martin and Hesjedal are out of contention for the pink: Tyler Farrar looks much improved this season.

Unless the rough conditions cause some sort of major shakeup, it’s hard to see anyone beating Kittel on the day, and really hard to see anyone other than the above names pulling off that surprise, but for further outsiders, look to AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, Neri Sottoli’s Francesco Chicchi, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Manuel Belletti.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Elia Viviani | 3. Nacer Bouhanni

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! The preview of Stage 3 will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 2, so stay tuned. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

May 9, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1 (TTT): Belfast > Belfast – 21.7 km

Welcome to the first of 21 stage previews for the 2014 Giro! In case you missed the overall race preview, you can find it here. As a quick note: I’ll be previewing every day of racing, all the way to Trieste, so you can check back every day for stage profiles and picks. There will also be plenty of live analysis on Twitter, so be sure to follow the new @VeloHuman for more.

The Giro d’Italia gets underway with Friday’s 21.7 kilometer team time trial. The stage begins and ends in Belfast. The profile is not particularly challenging, with a minor bump at the first time check as essentially the only topographic feature. There are a few twists and turns, but it should be a relatively straightforward affair. I don’t think the time gaps will be huge but some of the smaller, more climbing-oriented teams will have to fight to limit their losses.

As is becoming more and more frequent in these types of races, Orica-GreenEdge looks to be the strongest squad for the day. The Aussie squad takes a pretty focused approach to these contests, and it tends to pay off (it did at last year’s Tour de France). The likes of Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn, Brett Lancaster, Cameron Meyer, and Svein Tuft won’t let this one get away easily. The goal may be to put Italian rider Ivan Santaromita into the pink jersey on day one, and it’s hard to see anyone keeping OGE from achieving that goal.

Also bringing a squad of chrono specialists, BMC may have the best shot at surprising GreenEdge, though I think it’s an outside shot. Movistar, led by Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori, would be the third pick. I’d be very surprised to see any other team winning the day. Cadel Evans and Nairo Quintana stand to gain an early advantage over their rivals on GC.

Time trials rarely allow for victors to come from left field, so I am going to eschew picking an unexpected to squad to pull away with the surprise win because I just don’t think it’s going to happen. I do, however, think that Belkin will outperform expectations; Wilco Kelderman is a strong TTist and his support staff is mostly made up of riders who are also good against the clock. Sky, despite being in the rare position of not having a major GC candidate for this Grand Tour, should turn in a strong performance as well. Meanwhile, I suspect that OPQS will perform at a level significantly lower than we normally see from the team in this discipline, as they are missing most of their big engines: sans Tony Martin, Niki Terpstra, and Michal Kwiatkowski, the Belgian squad won’t be as strong against the clock as they usually are.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Orica-GreenEdge | 2. BMC | 3. Movistar

May 8, 2014
Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2014 Preview

La Fleche Wallonne ended in typically epic fashion this Wednesday, with an uphill battle royale among some heavyweight talents. Michal Kwiatkowski made a strong move up the Mur de Huy, displaying impressive climbing legs on the legendary gradient. Dan Martin charged past the surging Pole further up the slope, showing the form we’ve been waiting to see this season. But it was Alejandro Valverde who made the final decisive attack as the finish line approached, and the Movistar team leader held on for the victory ahead of the pair. Amstel Gold and La Fleche Wallonne have offered their insights, and now it’s on to the final chapter of the Ardennes trilogy. Liège-Bastogne-Liège (which I am simplifying to Liege-Bastogne-Liege for ease-of-typing and searchability reasons) is the 4th Monument classic of the year, known as “La Doyenne,” or “The Oldest,” because it is the elder statesman of the five legendary one-day races. The finale of the Ardennes week runs from Liege, Belgium, to Bastogne, and then back again, finishing a few kilometers from where the race began, in the town of Ans. With 262.9 kilometers of seemingly neverending ups and downs, Liege offers no respite, and nowhere to hide.

Climbs like the Cote de Saint-Roch (1 km at 11.1% average grade) and the Cote de Stockeu (1 km at 12.4% average grade) deliver early doses of pain that are sure to stick with the peloton as things get more and more brutal towards the end of the day. At kilometer 218 of 261, La Redoute (2.0 km at 8.9% average grade) will blow the pack apart, and then the Cote de La Roche-aux-Faucons (1.5 km at 9.3%) at kilometer 243 and Cote de Saint-Nicolas (1.2 km at 8.6%) at kilometer 257 guarantee a flurry of attacks as the riders make their bids for glory with the uphill finish line finally approaching. In last year’s edition, uphill action late in the race put a small group of top talents out front, and Daniel Martin attacked from this group in the final kilometers to take the victory ahead of Joaquim Rodriguez.

To win Liege-Bastogne-Liege, a rider must have the ascending abilities to make it up all the inclines at the front of the pack, but also the endurance to survive a very long, Monumental day in the saddle. A fast finish can help, as past editions have occasionally come down to a drag race between a small group. Like all five Monuments, Liege tests riders on a wide range of skills, and it is unforgiving to those who aren’t in top shape. The final race of the Ardennes Classics, and indeed of the Spring Classics season as a whole, it guarantees excitement as riders and teams line up for their last shot at success in the early one-day contests.

As a quick aside before I get to the names to know: be sure to follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race!

The Riders to Watch

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde was already showing elite form before he took La Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday. Continental-level victories exhibited his strength early in the year, and his climbing legs were second to only Alberto Contador in Pais Vasco. With his dominant display atop the Mur de Huy this week (video below), Valverde made a loud statement ahead of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, which he has already won twice in his career. La Doyenne may suit him even better than La Fleche Wallonne, playing to his endurance and also to his fast finish, which puts pressure on his opponents. He has the form, a skillset tailored to the parcours, and a proven ability to win this race, making him a favorite to take yet another Monument victory this Sunday, even against such high caliber opposition. Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti, excellent climbers in their own right, make Movistar’s bid for glory all the more impressive.

Daniel Martin‘s condition was hazy right up until Wednesday’s race, as questionable form and knee pain cast doubts over his chances for La Fleche Wallonne and the defense of his Liege title this weekend; he dispelled concerns with his explosive charge up the Mur de Huy for 2nd place, and now finds himself right back in the discussion. The Irish climber has a habit of shining on the brightest stages. With his Monument defense this weekend and the Giro right around the corner, Martin is peaking at the absolute perfect moment, when many of his rivals may be starting to flag after more race-heavy early seasons. Garmin teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter is on amazing form and is a real contender, especially after a very impressive 5th place atop the Mur, though a strong result in a race this long and challenging would be a major step up for the 24-year-old. Ryder Hesjedal (who was instrumental in securing Martin’s victory last year) is here as well. Garmin will look to animate the race on the late hills, and I’d bet one of their top guns will be in the mix.

2014 Amstel Gold winner and former Liege victor Philippe Gilbert had a disappointing day at La Fleche Wallonne, but I’m not sure how much to read into his 10th place. A late crash in that race shook up the order on the road, and Gilbert was never really in a great position on the Mur; difficult to say how things might have gone had he been in a better spot to start, and either way, a Top 10 is hardly a bad performance. Liege presents myriad opportunities for a vintage Gilbert getaway. With an impressive team backing him that includes Samuel Sanchez, I see Gilbert as practically locked in for another Top 10 performance; winning ahead of Grand Tour style climbers will be a tall order, but the 2014 version of the former World Champ looks more up to the challenge than he has in a while.

After his Volta a Catalunya win, the 2014 season was looking bright for Joaquim Rodriguez, who was honed in on trying to finally win Liege-Bastogne-Liege after two past runner-up performances without a victory. However, his crash in the Amstel Gold Race last Sunday left him with bruised ribs, and injury question marks for the main event this Sunday. He did not clear up concerns at La Fleche Wallonne, crashing again and finishing a few minutes off the pace. On the kind of form he displayed last month, Purito would be a top favorite for Liege. As it stands, he is a bit of an unknown. I figure that a few more days of recovery will be enough to at least see him contend. Daniel Moreno and Alexandr Kolobnev (2nd in 2010) will be strong alternatives as usual for Katusha.

5th at the Amstel Gold Race and 3rd at La Fleche Wallonne, Michal Kwiatkowski is inching closer to the marquee victory he has been hunting so doggedly this season. Liege could see it happen. Kwiatkowski’s many tools make him an excellent candidate. He also has two very strong teammates for the hills in Wout Poels and Jan Bakelants. He is very good on the steep stuff, but maybe even better at surviving the steep stuff and then powering past his rivals as things start to level out. The way he has been riding this season, it is hard to see the tiny Polish champion not among the very best at La Doyenne. Like Valverde, he has the luxury of possessing a feared sprint, which can force rivals to attack. I’m excited to see what he can do in the race that is probably his biggest target so far.

Simon Gerrans took Wednesday off, which may leave the 10th place finisher in last year’s Liege fresher than his rivals. That freshness and a knack for both long-range strikes and short-range top speed make him a major threat at Liege. The Milano-Sanremo winner is a proven contender on the exceptionally long days. Orica-GreenEdge always fields excellent squads on hilly profiles and Sunday’s race is no different: Daryl Impey, Ivan Santaromita, Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, and Simon Clarke excel on a parcours like this. I’m fairly certain we’ll see a few green and yellow jerseys in the pack as the peloton hits the final climbs.

World Champ Rui Costa is a major rider to watch at Liege. He has looked okay in his Ardennes campaign so far, among the top 20 at Amstel (where I think Lampre may have been riding for Damiano Cunego at first) and in the pack at La Fleche Wallonne in support of Diego Ulissi before a crash broke his wheel and ended his time among the leaders. I imagine the strong duo of Ulissi and Cunego (two-time Liege winner) will be backing the man in the rainbow jersey this Sunday in a race that will allow him to utilize his keen sense for finding the perfect launching pad for an attack.

Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert returned to the Ardennes Classic limelight after some time on questionable form with his runner-up performance at Amstel Gold. Then, despite rumors of a knee injury, he landed 6th at La Fleche Wallonne. Clearly, he is on form in 2014. 10th is as high as he’s placed in the longer, less forgiving Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but the shape he’s in this year could see him better that result. He’s up against some stiff competition in the Ardennes finale, but he’s been very surprising so far, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he would continue to be. Tony Gallopin, who won 2013’s Clasica San Sebastian with a well-executed long-range strike, could thrive on the undulating profile.

Vincenzo Nibali has been up with the leaders towards the business end of the two Ardennes races we’ve witnessed so far, but he has not really contended at either finish line. I think that will change Sunday. Nibali is a Grand Tour winner who sets his sights high, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege is an important goal of his for the season—more so than Amstel or La Fleche Wallonne. I think a powerful attack is all but guaranteed, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him among the top contenders in the final kilometers of the race. Jakob Fuglsang, Maxim Iglinskiy (a former winner here), and Enrico Gasparotto will provide more options for Astana: 2013 Giro-winner Nibali will lead a strong team in this race. Speaking of Grand Tours, 2013 Tour de France winner Chris Froome will be at the startline as well. It’s unusual that I wait this long in a preview to mention his name, but the GC star will be hoping to try his luck for Sky at Liege on Sunday. He doesn’t have much of a resume in the Ardennes, and he’s not much of a one-day racer generally, but La Doyenne favors high endurance riders with strong climbing abilities, and Froome combines those traits better than anyone in the sport today. Richie Porte and David Lopez are able lieutenants for Sky’s squad.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema took 7th at Amstel Gold and then 4th at La Fleche Wallonne, clearly rounding into top shape at just the right moment in 2014. He was 6th at Liege in 2012, and heading up Belkin’s strong squad he’s got a great chance of improving on that result this year. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger hasn’t managed to land a great result so far in the first two Ardennes Classics, but Liege will probably suit him better, as I think he can survive the high mileage better than most. Nicolas Roche could be a valuable second.

AG2R’s Carlos Betancur struggled at La Fleche Wallonne and is likely still recovering from his knee injury; should he make drastic strides back to good health before this weekend, he could contend, but it seems like a long shot for now. Top-notch solo artist Tom Dumoulin and quality climber Warren Barguil both look like solid outsiders for Giant-Shimano. Andy Schleck suffered injury in an Amstel Gold crash and fell off the pace at La Fleche Wallonne, which doesn’t inspire much confidence for the more difficult Monument to come, but brother Frank was looking good until he fell off his bike in a late crash, and could have better fortune here. Trek teammate Julian Arredondo showed off his nice form with an 11th place in that race, and could play the role of joker. Cyril Gautier, Pierre Rolland, Tommy Voeckler, and Yukiya Arashira are well under the radar, but they are all aggressive, versatile riders who could go off the front at any time for Europcar. Arashiro is having a particularly fine spring. 260 kilometers of neverending climbs and breakneck pace do not treat outsiders kindly, but well-timed attacks can wreak havoc in this race, even against the cream of the climbing crop. Ever unpredictable weather conditions could add to the opportunities for surprises.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Daniel Martin, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Joaquim Rodriguez, Vincenzo Nibali, Rui Costa, Simon Gerrans, Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger

The new VeloHuman Twitter account will be quite active with live analysis of Sunday’s race, so be sure to follow @VeloHuman for more. I’ll also be previewing the Tour de Romandie in just a few days, so check back in soon!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Flowizm. Video courtesy of CyclingHub.

April 24, 2014
La Fleche Wallonne 2014 Preview

The first of three Ardennes Classics went to former World Champ Philippe Gilbert on Sunday after he put the hammer down on his favorite hunting ground, the Cauberg. His uphill strike was so powerful that not even the likes of Alejandro Valverde or Michal Kwiatkowski could reel him in over the final flat 1.8 kilometers of the Amstel Gold Race. Jelle Vanendert made a valiant move past a chasing group for 2nd, and Simon Gerrans outsprinted Valverde and Kwiatkowski for 3rd. A possible bunch sprint was nullified by the power of the big favorites up front: the pack could not survive the impressive climbing skills of Gilbert and Co. on the Cauberg. Anyone who struggled on the Cauberg will have an even harder time on Wednesday, as the peloton takes on the mighty Mur de Huy at La Flèche Wallonne (which I am generally styling as La Fleche Wallonne because accented vowels and easy-to-write, searchable internet text are not great friends).

At 199 kilometers, La Fleche Wallonne is shorter than some of the other classics the peloton has taken on this season. That opens it up a bit to riders who don’t specialize as heavily in the overlong spring races. Still, the route is peppered with grueling ascents in rapid succession, including two trips up the Mur de Huy (1.3 km, 9.3% average grade) before the third and final ascent at the end the race. The group that makes it to the bottom of the final climb will be very much reduced by the day’s many challenges. Unlike the Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne has no 1.8 kilometer drag after its decisive climb. The Mur is also steeper than the Cauberg. This is a race that goes to explosive climbers, period. Last year’s Top 10 was a who’s who of ascending heavyweights (figuratively, as all of them are, of course, quite light of frame). Daniel Moreno was strongest on the day, with Sergio Henao, Carlos Betancur, and Daniel Martin hot on his heels. Purito, Valverde, and Mollema weren’t far behind. La Fleche Wallonne 2013 was decided in the final moments on the climb to the top of the Mur, and it’s hard to see a different script for 2014, though there will be some other riders playing the roles this time around. Before I name my top names, a note: as usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of analysis live during the contest, so be sure to follow @VeloHuman for more real-time thoughts on the race!

The Contenders

Philippe Gilbert won the race in 2011 and podiumed in 2012. He seemed to have lost a bit of a form for 2013, but his victories at Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold this year have catapulted him back into the conversation. He played his cards just right at Amstel, exploding up the climb and then hanging on over a not insignificant distance. A crucial component in his victory was an attack from teammate Samuel Sanchez, who will join him again at La Fleche Wallonne, making BMC an even tougher opponent for the rest of the pack. Still, with such a brutal climb to close out the race, even Gilbert’s punchy legs will be put on the limit trying to hold off some Grand Tour talent. He will also no longer benefit from the hesitation that he’s gotten from his rivals in the past several month of reduced form; everyone knows Gilbert is back now.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is another past winner of the race, and he will certainly be among the favorites to contend for this year’s La Fleche Wallonne. The bookies’ favorite for Amstel Gold finished 4th on the day after being unable to follow Gilbert on the final climb, though I do wonder if a part of his failure to cover the Belgian’s attack was indecision and hesitation, as he, Simon Gerrans, and Michal Kwiatkowski did not react immediately to the move on the Cauberg. He’ll get a chance at revenge on Wednesday. Without the injury question marks of some of the other big contenders, I imagine Valverde will occupy at least one of the spots on the podium for this race. Mountain goat teammates like Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti make his bid for victory a formidable one.

Were it not for the aforementioned health issues confusing things, there are three riders I might favor among Gilbert and Valverde; unfortunately, each comes with unknowns. First and foremost is Joaquim Rodriguez. Katusha has dominated this race in the past two years: Purito won in 2012, and Daniel Moreno won in 2013. Both riders are perfectly suited to the finish on the Mur de Huy, and more than capable of making it there without too much trouble. However, Rodriguez crashed out of yesterday’s Amstel Gold and was immediately taken to the hospital for further examination. Reports indicate that he did not suffer any serious injury, but there was also talk that he was a bit dizzy after going down. None of this inspires confidence. It doesn’t help that he is really targeting Sunday’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and next month’s Giro, and will probably be willing to take La Fleche Wallonne easy if he thinks it’s necessary for recovery. Were it not for the question marks, Purito’s form this year and his skillset might have made him my overall favorite, but as it stands, it’s hard to put that kind of confidence in him. His teammate Moreno, winner last year, may be a better choice, with a similar skillset and a proven ability to win the race. Moreno was 9th in Amstel yesterday and 3rd behind Contador and Quintana in the summit finish fourth stage of Tirreno-Adriatico this year, so he’s looking strong to defend his title here in 2014.

2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner Daniel Martin is another would-be favorite with injury question marks. He pulled out of Amstel Gold early with knee pain. He has stated that he does not think it will be a lasting issue, but like Purito, Martin is targeting Liege and the Giro and he has a capable teammate (in Tom-Jelte Slagter) to take up the reigns if he decides to take it easy. Were his health not in question, La Fleche Wallonne’s finish would be ideal for the Irishman, who came in 4th last year (he missed a podium place by about half a centimeter), and probably would have done better had he not been somewhat out of position at the start of the final climb. Should Martin not be up for it, Garmin will turn turn to the hot hand in Slagter. He was disappointing at Amstel Gold, but the young rider might have a bit more left in the tank at the end of the shorter race on Wednesday. Ryder Hesjedal was not long ago one of the better Ardennes riders in the peloton and he’ll be in attendance as well.

AG2R’s Carlos Betancur is the other injury-bitten top rider in the race. He was 3rd here last year and he is on fire in 2014. Unfortunately, he’s also been suffering from a knee issue lately, and it’s very much unclear what his status is for La Fleche Wallonne. He did not contend at Amstel Gold, but he didn’t get dropped off the pace right away either. His tools (perfect for this race) and body of work put him among my top 10 riders in this race, as I think he’s quite capable of winning, but it’s hard to say whether he’ll be able to put all that ability to good use. Romain Bardet will be the other option for AG2R, and the way he’s been climbing this year, he could feature in the finale.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS was 5th in the race last year. Given his blazing form in 2014, I’d imagine we’ll see him in the vanguard on the Mur again this year, but the do-it-all 23-year-old might find the finish line just a bit too steep for his liking. As versatile as he is, he may be looking to Sunday’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege as a prize more suited to his talents. Still, anything is possible for Kwiatkowski. OPQS has another strong card to play in Wout Poels, who has been climbing very well this year and could take a crack at the final ascent himself. Jan Bakelants makes another strong supporter.

Lampre’s three-pronged attack was unable to make much of a mark on the Amstel Gold Race, but I think they’re better suited to La Fleche Wallonne: Diego Ulissi is a star on these finishes, and his biggest weakness so far in his career has been long days in the saddle. Significantly shorter than its Ardennes brethren, La Fleche Wallonne is perfect for Ulissi, and he is targeting this race heavily. He came to the base of the Cauberg with the pack at Amstel Gold, which suggests to me that he is in shape and primed for success in a race more tailored to his talents. Teammate and World Champ Rui Costa could also give things a go. The Mur might be a bit too steep for his liking, but victory in this race requires perfect timing and Costa has one of the sharpest minds for strategy in the entire peloton. Damiano Cunego has a pair of podium performances in La Fleche Wallonne on his resume, but even with his surprise 2014 form I’m not sure he can hang with the best in the bunch anymore, especially not after an anonymous showing in an Amstel Gold Race that suited him better.

I had questions about Bauke Mollema‘s form coming into Amstel Gold, but his 7th place in that race answered them for me. La Fleche Wallonne puts the spotlight more squarely on the GC climber types, and Mollema has the kind of climbing legs to contend for Grand Tours. He also has a very strong finish and a very aggressive approach, which are key in this race, and they’ve given him back-to-back Top 10s here in the past. I would put Mollema among the best value bets for a podium in this race, just a few steps outside the spotlight but very capable of contending. Talented climbers Lars Petter Nordhaug and Laurens Ten Dam make a fine support squad. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger was unable to defend his Amstel Gold title, but like Mollema, he is a Grand Tour climber with a strong finish. Though he did not feature among the contenders, he was among the Top 20 on Sunday, and the vicious Mur de Huy gives him another chance at victory. Teammate Nicolas Roche is building up to the Giro and could also make a move.

Astana again brings their talent-packed squad to the startline; Enrico Gasparotto was their best placed finisher at Amstel, coming in 8th, but Jakob Fuglsang looked strong in a breakaway and Vincenzo Nibali came to the base of the Cauberg with the pack. Nibali was 8th in La Fleche Wallonne in 2012 and he has the uphill ability to land another top result. Fuglsang isn’t well-known for explosiveness but he’s certainly got the climber’s physique. The Mur might be too much for Gasparotto and Iglinskiy but they’ll be valuable teammates as well.

Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert suddenly roared back into relevance with a runner-up performance at Amstel Gold, where he chased heavier favorites up the Cauberg and sailed past many of them on his way to 2nd place. He has a pair of La Fleche Wallonne top 10s to his name as well, so he certainly deserves a look for Wednesday’s race. Teammate Tony Gallopin is another good climber and one-day rider, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck nabbed the final spot in the top 10 in 2012.

Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge won’t be riding this race (the finish is a bit too steep for him), so they send punchy Ivan Santaromita, 2012 runner-up Michael Albasini, aggressive Pieter Weening and Simon Clark, and Simon and Adam Yates to represent their interests. No favorites among them, but plenty of riders to animate the race. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has had an impressive start to the season and will like the finish. Andy Schleck crashed out of Amstel Gold, but he should make the start with brother Frank, who has shown signs of life in 2014. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank is a good climber who will be riding for his own interests for once. Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin and Warren Barguil will hope to make an impact. Sky’s best bets are probably Mikel Nieve and David Lopez. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is still looking for success in 2014. Daniel Navarro of Cofidis is a strong climber with a decent supporting cast. They’ll all have their work cut out for them in a race with a finish that tends to weed out long shots, but a number of the contenders are facing injury concerns, which could open doors at La Fleche Wallonne 2014.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Philippe Gilbert
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Moreno
Other Top Contenders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema, Vincenzo Nibali, Michal Kwiatkowski, Carlos Betancur, Daniel Martin

Remember to follow @VeloHuman for more race-day thoughts, and come back soon for the Liege-Bastogne-Liege preview!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Max Mayorov.

April 21, 2014
Amstel Gold Race 2014 Preview

After an exciting appetizer at Brabantse Pijl (won by a resurgent Philippe Gilbert ahead of an impressive Michael Matthews), the week of races known as the Ardennes Classics is here! The Amstel Gold Race kicks off on Sunday. The undulating 250 kilometer jaunt through the Limburg province is perhaps the biggest cycling event in the Netherlands. The course has changed in recent years, its finish moving from the summit of the legendary Cauberg to a flat straightaway about 1.8 kilometers after the top of the climb. The punchy riders will still attempt to get away on the last bump in the road, but with more room to bring back escapees, things are more likely to come together for a sprint among a larger group of survivors now. Still, to make it to this finish at the front of the pack, a rider has to be seriously capable on the steep stuff (like the 1.1 kilometer, 8.8% average Eyserbosweg with 20 km to go), and a great bike handler as well: the journey from starting city Maastricht to the finish line in Valkenburg is notorious for its challenging twists and tight turns, and after 250 kilometers, keeping one’s concentration through the corners is not easy.

Last year, Roman Kreuziger was allowed to bridge into a break up the road with 20 kilometers remaining. He attacked from the group, and held on for victory. Kreuziger went on to land a number of great results in 2014, including a 5th place in the Tour de France, and looking back, it seems funny that a rider of his caliber was given the chance to ride ahead, but prior to Amstel, he had not picked up the results we’ve come to expect from him since. I don’t think the successful long range attack scenario will be repeated this year. For one, it’s not often that a rider as good as Kreuziger flies under the radar like he did early in 2014. Second, now that it’s happened once, the big favorites will act to stop it from happening again. I think it’s more likely this race comes down to the final kilometers.

The Contenders

Though the new parcours opens Amstel up for a number of different kinds of riders (which makes previews and predictions quite difficult, by the way!), I see three favorites for the race, all of them great climbers, high endurance riders, and very fast finishers. Favored most among the bookmakers is Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, who has flown through the early season, racking up victories in a number of Continental races, including a Roma Maxima win against some big names. The Ardennes star was 2nd last year, winning the gallop to the line behind the victorious Kreuziger. He’s an excellent climber who won’t struggle with the bumps in the road, he has Grand Tour winning endurance, he’s a quality bike handler, and he packs a powerful sprint. This race is tailormade for his skillset, and he can win it either with a late attack or at the head of a group of fast finishers. Movistar backs his effort with the climb-happy likes of Ion Izagirre and Beñat Intxausti.

OPQS sends a typically powerhouse squad to support the fast-rising Michal Kwiatkowski, who took 4th in the race in 2013. He’s only gotten stronger since then, taking a big win at Strade Bianche earlier in the year and landing 2nd overall in Pais Vasco last week. Perhaps even more relevant than his runner-up in GC in that race was his taking of the points jersey thanks to five top 3 finishes in the race’s six stages. A number of those placings came due to his top-notch sprint. Still, despite his constant displays of amazing talent, Kwiatkowski has yet to actually pull off a WorldTour win, with a resume full of near misses so far in his very young career. The first one is always a challenge, but this race really suits his skillset, and OPQS sends a stellar group of versatile riders to help. Jan Bakelants, Wout Poels, newcomer Julian Alaphilippe, and Pieter Serry are all good on the rolling hills. It’s hard to think of a better teammate to ride tempo than world ITT champ Tony Martin. Zdenek Stybar is a wildcard who, despite not having a resume in this race, is one of the best on a challenging road map. Don’t be surprised to see him break for the line as the kilometers wind down.

The third of my three favorites for Amstel Gold 2014 is the man who won in 2010 and 2011, and came in 6th and 5th in 2012 and 2013: BMC’s Philippe Gilbert. I probably don’t need to point out that he is no longer the rider who won the Ardennes triple in 2011 or the World Championship race in 2012. Still, he’s coming off a great demonstration of form at this week’s Brabantse Pijl, where he outsprinted the extremely quick Michael Matthews only a few minutes after going deep into the red trying to bridge a gap to a late breakaway. Amstel is a race he knows how to win: the Cauberg is perhaps his favorite hunting ground, launching him into the rainbow jersey in 2012. It’s hard to see him not at the front of the race in the home stretch, and then it is just a question of whether he can escape from the pack on the final slope, or outsprint whoever remains at the end. Greg Van Avermaet makes a fine second. Samuel Sanchez (7th in 2012) is another card for BMC to play.

Roman Kreuziger again leads Tinkoff-Saxo. He won’t be allowed up the road the way he was in 2013, but he’s still a great contender to be there at the end. His status as a marked man did not stop him from landing a podium performance in the Clasica San Sebastian last year.

Joaquim Rodriguez was 2nd in this race in 2011, but the new finish is less tailored to his uphill ability. He has a quick sprint, but he’ll have to be in pretty select company in the final kilometer to be a favorite, and I’m not sure the Cauberg is long enough to force that sort of selection. Teammate Daniel Moreno may actually be a better option. He followed up his La Fleche Wallonne victory last year with a number of great results that showed his excellent finishing move. This pair works extremely well together, and at least one of them should be fighting for a top result. Alexandr Kolobnev has been among the Top 10 here in the past.

Orica-GreenEdge is another squad with a few excellent options. Simon Gerrans took 3rd here last year and in 2011. He was on fire at the opening of the season in the Tour Down Under, but illness derailed his early spring campaign, leaving him unable to contest the biggest race he’s ever won, Milano-Sanremo. A fine showing in Brabantse Pijl suggests he’s back on the level; he was very active in that race, off the front for a huge chunk of time. Like Valverde and Kwiatkowski, he has the climbing legs to handle the dogfight sure to ensue on the Cauberg, and a very fast sprint to challenge for victory among the survivors. Teammate Michael Matthews will hope to be one of those survivors, and it’s quite possible that the very capable climber, who just nabbed 2nd at Brabantse Pijl, will be there at the end. If he is, he’s one of the very best sprinters on the startlist, fast enough to win the final stage of the Vuelta 2013, a sprinters’ battle royale. He rode well in Pais Vasco, picking up a stage win, and was climbing at a very high level in Paris-Nice. Matching the likes of Valverde and Gilbert up the Cauberg will be a tall order, but I’m not counting him out. Daryl Impey, Simon Clark, Michael Albasini, and Pieter Weening give Orica-GreenEdge a team tailored perfectly for these rolling hills.

Sky’s Ben Swift is the other top-notch sprinter with a decent shot at hanging on over the Cauberg. If either Matthews or Swift are in the lead group in the final kilometer, it’s hard to see anyone outgunning them to the finish line. Swift showed at Milano-Sanremo that extremely long, grueling days of racing are within his power–he took 3rd in that race ahead of some real sprinting class. Then, in the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, he hung on over some very difficult climbs to take victory in the 5th stage ahead of none other than my two biggest favorites for Amstel Gold, Alejandro Valverde and Michael Kwiatkowski. It’s all happening very fast for Swift, who dealt with painful injuries over the past two seasons. Now that he’s suddenly back to winning ways, it’s hard to predict just how much he can do. Amstel will be a great test. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas is firing on all cylinders this year. Sky has yet another contender in Edvald Boasson Hagen, who, despite lacking experience in the Ardennes Classics, has the all-rounder skillset to be a dangerous player here.

Garmin packs a strong 1-2 punch in Tom-Jelte Slagter and Daniel Martin. Slagter has been on fire in 2014, winning two stages at Paris-Nice and climbing very well in Pais Vasco. He’s an explosive rider who loves the short steep climbs and can finish quickly as well. Dan Martin has started his season later than usual in an attempt to time his peak just right for the Ardennes Classics and the Giro d’Italia. With a flat finish, Amstel is probably worst-suited of the three Ardennes races for Martin, but the Liege-Bastogne-Liege defending champ and 2011 runner-up in Lombardia is made for long, rolling parcours like this one. He looked okay in Catalunya and in this week’s Brabantse Pijl. La Fleche Wallonne and Liege might be a bigger goal, but the Cauberg could see him test his legs. Ryder Hesjedal is here too, and versatile Nathan Haas is coming on strong this year as well. Lampre packs a great 1-2-3 punch in Diego Ulissi, Rui Costa, and a resurgent Damiano Cunego. Ulissi was brilliant in the Tour Down Under, picking up a podium spot, and he has a few good results in smaller Italian races since then. World Champ Rui Costa looked good in Paris-Nice and this is a good parcours for him with plenty of opportunities to attack, but Pais Vasco left some question marks about his form. Damiano Cunego won Amstel Gold back in 2008, but his career has, to put it lightly, taken a bit of a dip since then. However, he has looked great in 2014, nailing a 4th place in Strade Bianche and riding with the big favorites in Pais Vasco; his ITT kept him out of the top 10 of the race but only barely. For the first time in a while, a podium is within his reach here. Astana has a very well-rounded team with several matches to burn and options for many different scenarios. Vincenzo Nibali is still looking for that elusive big one-day win, and he loves to fire off attacks on days like these. His chief lieutenant Jakob Fuglsang has been more aggressive than usual lately and that could help here. Enrico Gasparotto was a pretty surprising winner of this race in 2012. I don’t think he’s still at that level, but the explosive climbs suit him. Maxim Iglinskiy was Astana’s other surprise Ardennes winner in 2012 when he took Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Like Gasparotto, he has not done much since to suggest maintained form, but his skillset at least deserves a mention. Francesco Gavazzi and Borut Bozic present strong sprinting options should a larger group arrive. With so many weapons, I think Astana has a great chance of landing at least one rider in the top 10; I just have no idea which of their riders it will be.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema would normally be a contender here (back-to-back top 10s in 2012 and 2013) but his form is questionable so far in 2014; still, he’ll like the profile. AG2R’s Carlos Betancur would be among the chief favorites but a nagging knee injury makes him a big question mark for Amstel. If he shows the same formhere he showed in Paris-Nice, he’ll be back among the favorites where he belongs for La Fleche Wallonne; teammate Romain Bardet is another great climber. Lotto’s Tony Gallopin managed to overcome a very late flat to finish on the Brabantse Pijl podium and he’s a good outside bet here, with Jurgen Van Den Broeck starting as well. French national champion Arthur Vichot took a big stage victory for FDJ on the final day of Paris-Nice and landed on the podium there; he can climb and sprint well. Other outsiders include Giant’s Tom Dumoulin and Simon Geschke, Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli and Enrico Battaglin, Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Bjorn Leukemans (he has been 7th here three times, and has looked sharp in 2014), Trek’s Andy and Frank Schleck, CCC’s Davide Rebellin (winner of this race way back in 2004), Cannondale’s Marco Marcato and Daniello Ratto. Lastly, Europcar sends Thomas Voeckler, but Bryan Coquard is apparently on the startlist as well, and should he somehow make it to the finish line with the lead group, he’s probably the fastest sprinter in the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Michal Kwiatkowski
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Simon Gerrans, Daniel Moreno, Diego Ulissi, Michael Matthews, Ben Swift, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Roman Kreuziger

As usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race from the new VeloHuman Twitter account, so if you don’t already, remember to follow @VeloHuman for more! And come back soon for previews of La Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Tour de Romandie!

-Dane Cash

Photo by flowizm.

April 18, 2014