Tag: Predictions

Il Lombardia 2013 Preview

High Stakes Hill-climbing in Italy, Round Two

For all those big name riders who missed out on last week’s climber’s classic in Italy, this Sunday provides a perfect opportunity for redemption: another climber’s classic in Italy, 2013’s final Monument: Il Lombardia. It’s the last one-day WorldTour race of the year, the final Monument, and it’s well-timed, a race for the uphill specialists coming after a rare Championship race geared towards the same crowd, meaning that the contenders will be at the top of their game for a race that has, in the past, often featured riders in fading form.

Last weekend’s grueling Worlds proved to be a competition for the GC types in the end, but up until the last lap around Florence, it wasn’t so clear whether they’d be able to drop Spartacus and his type; Il Lombardia, though, has steeper, more selective slopes that will require even more climbing prowess, putting the spotlight squarely on the lighter men in the peloton.

The Valico di Valcava kicks things off before the halfway mark, 11 kilometers at an 8% gradient, a climb worthy of a high mountain stage in a Grand Tour. After another bump in the road, the Colle Brianza, the peloton takes on the very challenging wall of Sormano, touching gradients in the mid 20% range, with it’s summit a little more than 80 kilometers before the finish. It’s followed by a steep downhill and some flat land to give those dropped a chance to catch up, but regardless it will take a lot out of the legs of the heavier riders. The winding road up to the Madonna del Ghisallo is an irregular ascent that fluctuates between 10% sections and short periods of respite. Next up is a challenging descent, and then another 20 kilometers of flattish roads before the Villa Vergano climb, which, since being added to the parcours in 2011, has been the battleground on which this Monument has been decided. After so many intense lumps along the way to the finish in Lecco, the final test of 3.4 km at 8%, with a steeper run towards the top, is sure to launch the winner, or the small winning group, to victory.

Purito won in Lombardy last year, finally taking a well-earned first Monument title, and he’s the leading favorite again this year. He was agonizingly close to the rainbow jersey last Sunday when his attempt to solo away on the final slopes was shot down by a hard-charging Rui Costa. But if he’s maintained that top-level form into this Sunday, Rodriguez will have another excellent opportunity here, with a final launching pad perfectly designed for his punchy style that could create more of a gap than in Florence and less of a chance for chasers to catch back up. While said climb is almost 10 kilometers from the finish and followed by a downhill and then a flat (though technical) run-in towards the line, but the difficulty level of the slopes will inspire furious attacks that Purito can hope will prevent another sprint finish; not that he’s bad in a drag to the line, but certainly he’d prefer to avoid another last second disappointment to someone with a better kick. His teammate Daniel Moreno will be an excellent alternative option, especially if more than one rider is at the front of the race in the last kilometer. Moreno’s explosive style has netted him some big wins so far this year; he’s shown that not only can he hang on when things get hectic in a climber’s finish, but that he can be the one forcing the selection.

Last weekend’s climactic finish makes previewing this weekend’s race easier: every other member of the star-studded cast that made it into Rodriguez’s final move last Sunday should be counted as a favorite again this weekend, including, of course, the two riders who are teammates again in a race of trade teams: Alejandro Valverde and Rui Costa. Despite all of his incredible talent, Costa might have been riding this race in support of Valverde had he not taken the rainbow jersey in Florence; Movistar has undervalued Costa in the past. However, now that he is the World Champion, Costa will probably be given freedom to make his own moves, and who can doubt his ability and his expertise after last week. Still, Valverde is Valverde, and if nobody is able to break free, he’ll be the one to beat in a sprint finish. Movistar has even more cards to play than these two: Nairo Quintana may not have much of a one-day resume, but if there is any one top tier classic for the young rider to make his mark, it’s Lombardy. Giovanni Visconti and Benat Intxausti have both won similarly challenging races in Italy this year (during the Giro).

Home favorite Vincenzo Nibali managed to finish in 4th place last weekend despite having to dig deep to get back into the peloton after a late crash; who knows what might have been had he had that extra energy to use in the finish. The Giro winner will love the chance to show his strength in another challenging parcours, and he’s sure to make a move to break with the bunch when the road goes up late, as he doesn’t have much of a sprint to contend with the likes of Valverde, Moreno, or Costa. This lack of top-tier drag-racing talent has kept Nibali from having much success in single day races so far, but he’s on the form of his life, one of the top 5 riders in the sport this year, and it’s almost guaranteed that he’ll attempt to use his elite soloing ability to take the win. He may have a tough challenge climbing to the top of the podium, but of all the contenders, I see Nibali as by far the most likely to finish in the top 10.

Sky’s Rigoberto Uran took a nasty fall on a wet descent in the waning minutes of the championship, taking himself out of the running for the final push. It’s a shame, because the explosive rider might have made a splash. He was on the podium in Lombardy last year (in fact, he was on the podium all the way back in 2008 as well), and he has the tools to improve on those performances here in 2013. Surprisingly, Uran has yet to take that big marquee classic victory (last year’s Gran Piemonte was a great first step at the 1.HC level, but a Monument win would be on a whole new plane). With the Sergio Henao for company (and as a good alternative, as Henao has had some fine results in one-day races), Uran will be a fierce challenger for the victory Sunday.

Michele Scarponi lasted for a few moments in the decisive move during the World Championship race, and he’s been close to victory on numerous occasions in the past few weeks, coming up short again and again in the Vuelta. He’s another good home option riding for an Italian squad, but I think the real favorite on Lampre-Merida is young Diego Ulissi, who just took the midweek Milano-Torino. He has a great sprint (as he showed in the opening stage of this year’s Tour de Pologne, where he came out on top in a reduced bunch finish in a group fifteen strong after a late climb) and clearly the form to mix it up on the ascents. He’s not a great descender, and he’ll hope against hope for good weather, but if the conditions aren’t too nasty, Diego Ulissi could pose a serious challenge against the collection of better known, more established riders in the race.

Dan Martin was one of a number of big names last week to suffer an unfortunate crash in the rain, but the fall did not seem to have any lasting effects. 2nd in the 2011 edition of this event, where he outkicked a group that included Purito and Ivan Basso for the title of runner-up, Martin has had quite a string of misfortune after his amazing early season success. If he can manage to stay on the bike the whole race, he’s primed for success here, with a parcours perfectly suited to his skillset. He denied Rodriguez a second Monument when he passed him en route to the win at Liege-Bastogne-Liege this spring, and he’d love the chance to collect a second one himself here at Il Lombardia in similar late-breaking fashion.

Saxo-Tinkoff’s Alberto Contador was one of the many DNFs last weekend as well, but he was fifth in Milano-Torino, suggesting he has found some late season form after disappointing time and again in 2013. He’ll have allies trying to outrun the better sprinters on the final climbs, and he also has a strong team behind him. Rafal Majka was runner-up at Milano-Torino. He’s actually never won a pro race, but he’s come close a number of times and he’s got a great finish to match his climbing legs. Nicolas Roche finally came good after years of being touted with a great showing in the Vuelta, and he’s another option for the team.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo nabbed fourth in Milano-Torino. He’s had a very strong 2013 and he’s kept a high level of climbing form all year. Carlos Betancur looked better last weekend than he did during his disappointing Vuelta, and should he find the form that went missing sometime this summer, he could surprise for his team this Sunday.

With Bauke Mollema out, Robert Gesink leads Belkin into the year’s last Monument. He showed an impressive sprint in Canada and he’s obviously a great climber. He heads up a strong team: Lars Petter Nordhaug had a good World Championship race, Laurens Ten Dam is another great climber, and Tom-Jelte Slagter is a versatile rider with a fast finish.

Philippe Gilbert has won this race twice, as recently as 2009 and 2010, but that seems like another lifetime for the Belgian star. He’s still got a great kick but he isn’t climbing as well as he used to. It’s not entirely out of the question that Gilbert finds those legs on Sunday, and if he manages to keep up with the attacks from the climbing heavyweights, obviously he’s a big favorite to outrun them at the line. BMC teammate Greg Van Avermaet is similarly positioned, a great all-rounder for whom Lombardy’s climbs might be just a bit too much. Strong climbers Ivan Santaromita, Mathias Frank, and Tejay van Garderen may be better options for BMC than the former champ Gilbert.

Perhaps more likely is that Peter Sagan keeps up with Nibali et al. He just missed out in Florence, leading his group across the line for 6th place behind the climbing stars, and while Lombardy has more challenging climbs, it’s also shorter than the World Championship race. The young Slovakian has sometimes struggled in the most grueling of endurance races, and maybe with fewer kilometers to tackle, he’ll be more up for the ascents. His handling ability will be useful on the windy roads and he’ll surely be the man to beat in a sprint if he can hang on, though I don’t think the odds are in his favor. Teammate and two-time Giro d’Italia winner Ivan Basso finished 4th in Lombardy in 2011 and will be a better bet to stick with his fellow GC types. He showed good form in the Vuelta before abandoning on a day of nasty weather in the mountains, and he has a surprising finishing kick.

Omega Pharma – Quick Step has a stable of all-rounder talent who will also be pushed to the limit, but who are capable of surprising. Michal Kwiatkowski has a very fast finish and when he’s on form, he can climb at a very high level, and Sylvain Chavanel, in his last WorldTour classic with OPQS, is a great bet to try for a long distance strike.

A few other outsiders: Tommy Voeckler, Franco Pellizotti, Damiano Cunego, Chris Anker Sorensen, Alexandr Kolobnev, Rinaldo Nocentini, Warren Barguil, Thibaut Pinot, the Radioshack duo of Jan Bakelants and Andy Schleck, and Orica-GreenEdge’s trio of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, and Simon Clarke, who was impressive in the World Championship road race. For anyone with ambitions of winning, it will be hard to overcome the odds in one of the biggest events on the calendar against the top talents in the world all on form from their championship runs, but the late season classics have been full of surprises and excitement this year.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Joaquim Rodriguez

Podium

Rigoberto Uran, Vincenzo Nibali

Top 10

Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin, Diego Ulissi, Robert Gesink, Michele Scarponi

-Dane Cash

Photos by Jered Gruber and Laurent Brun.

October 5, 2013
UCI World Championship Road Race 2013 Preview

The Main Event

The first few days of World Champs week have lived up to the hype; Tony Martin delivered back-to-back legendary performances in the team and individual time trials to kick things off in grand style. Now, the thrilling conclusion draws near.

For many of the biggest names in the sport, the post-Tour months have been all about tuning up. Whether in Spain or North America, in the final Grand Tour of the year or flying around urban circuits, riders have had an eye on Sunday’s main event. Every conversation predicting the Vuelta had to be framed in the context of preparation for Florence. The WorldTour’s stop visit to Canada garnered plenty of discussion about which one-day stars were in form for the real showdown at the World Champs.

The time for for tuning up is over. The rainbow jersey is up for grabs this weekend, and the competition is the most open in years. The nature of the course is such that nobody really knows for sure how the race will play out. The Florentine circuit race is an unmistakably up-and-down affair that will put the peloton through a seemingly never-ending series of climbs; but it will be repeated ascending of the same difficult but not overwhelming summits, without any one great climb that we can look to as the inevitable selection point. And the end of the run is flat, meaning that late breakers will not have an easy time staying away, and the winner will have to be rider with a very fast finish. Will the climbers be able to force the heavier riders out of the race? Will an attack go clear? And will a number of riders who might be favorites with the support of their trade teams have sufficient team backing with their national squads instead, especially against powerhouses like Spain and Italy?

The Road Ahead

One thing everyone can agree on about this profile: it’s grueling. This race will be won by a true hardman. 272.2 km of ascending and descending, and the favorites will face all the adversity that comes with every other rider on the road dreaming of this one day being his big day for a legendary winning move. The first half is not particularly challenging, a 100 kilometer prelude with a pair of climbs (Montecarlo and San Baronto) to put a bit of fatigue in the legs before the riders begin their ten laps around the Florence circuit. Every trip around town will include a climb up the Fiesole (4.4 km at 5.2%) and the short but steep Via Salviata (0.6 km at 10.2%), summited with 5 kilometers to go. There is also a bump in the road 3.5 kilometers from the end of the loop of less than a kilometer, but it’s got a section at 10%. Going up and down so many times adds up to quite a quantity of vertical meters; but it will have to be this repeated suffering that takes its toll, as a single climb up the Fiesole wouldn’t be particularly selective. More importantly, the top of the Fiesole is more than 10 km from the end, and the short Via Salviati and shorter mini-ramp a few km later are the only real lumps in an otherwise downhill or flat run-in. In other words, it will be a big challenge to attack on the climbs with so much space for the peloton to catch back up. With a flat finish, the winner will likely need a sprint.

And, of course, the weather will play it’s part. Riders who came to this event hoping for a nice weekend under the Tuscan sun will get a rude awakening: the forecast calls for some heavy rain. Anyone who gets away on a climb will have to stay away on a wet descent. With the pace as high as it will inevitably be, this one won’t be for the faint of heart.

So who will emerge from this slogfeset with the gold medal and the rainbow jersey? I won’t say it’s anyone’s game, but I do think the number of legitimate contenders is quite high. There are a few names, however, that I’m confident will be in the mix.

The Contenders

Chief among them for me has to be Peter Sagan. He really needs no introduction, especially if you’ve ever read a VeloHuman preview, so I’ll get to the specifics that make him tops. He won a difficult Gent-Wevelgem and came in second in the grueling Milano-San Remo and Tour of Flanders this year, but he also found himself on the podium in Amstel Gold last year, and atop it in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal a few weeks ago. He has won back-to-back green jerseys in the Tour de France (which now weights flat stages more heavily than climbing stages), but he also won Stage 3 of the Tour de Suisse, cresting an Alpine summit with a who’s who of climber talent at his side. And if the conditions get bad on Sunday? I think the former junior cyclocross world championship silver medalist will be able to handle himself. He can sprint with the best, he can climb with the best, he can go long, and he can handle the bike with some serious dexterity, which is exactly the kind of versatility necessary to win this open race. He also willed Slovakia into six positions on the startlist basically on his own WorldTour points alone; it’s not nine, which is what his main rivals will have, but he will have help. The hardest test for the young superstar will be the length of the course, which will push him to his limit.

Oddsmakers see another very versatile star as the favorite, Switzerland’s Fabian Cancellara. If the World Championship ITT is any indication (and I think it probably is) Cancellara is one of the top 3 soloists in the world right now (and as a four time winner of that competition, I don’t think that was ever in doubt). He’s a masterful descender with a strong sprint. Rainy conditions won’t trouble the Paris-Roubaix winner. For Cancellara, as for the other hard-chargers, the question is the same: will they be able to survive the hills and constant uphill attacks? If Cancellara is there, surely he will be a favorite, but will the rider who has been a constant sight in many of the same races in which he’s starred be there as well? I’m not sure Cancellara will be able to be out-drag-race Sagan or the other two sprinting talents I think have a chance to make it (see blow), but after so many miles of racing, anything could happen, and Spartacus is one of the toughest riders in the sport. He also has a strong team behind him, with big names like Michael Albasini and rising star Mathias Frank.

A third versatile rider famous for his one day kicks is the man who currently wears the rainbow jersey: Philippe Gilbert. It’s been a very hard year for the Belgian star, who was held winless until the Vuelta a España, but he followed the same script last year on his way to the World Championship, and he sure looked fine there. Moreover, his constant misses shouldn’t be taken as signs of a total lack of form: he top 10ed in Amstel and Liege Bastogne Liege, came in second at Brabantse Pijl to Sagan, and notched second places in stages all over, from Paris-Nice to the Eneco Tour (which, in my opinion, he might have won or at least podiumed in had he not crashed out) to the Vuelta, where he lost out in a photo finish a few days before finally nabbing that elusive victory. Said win in the Vuelta was masterful, and it showed that he can sprint with the best riders out there: despite his disappointments, he looks to be very much on form right now. His career shows ample evidence of his ability to hang on over the tough climbs, and the Via Salviata looks to be exactly the sort of ascent the Boar of the Ardennes might jump out for glory on; however, I think this year’s Gilbert might be even more dangerous in a reduced sprint after a long day. He looked like he’d lost a bit of a step in the steep uphill finish game in the Ardennes this year, but his recent results show a formidable kick in a flat finish. I think he’s a great bet for a repeat of last year’s late season glory, one way or another.

The other elite-finisher-who-can-climb I’ll mention is Norway’s Edvald Boasson Hagen, 2nd in last year’s championship race. He won a stage at the Dauphine in June and cleaned up the less-competitive Glava Tour of Norway, but his Grand Tour experiences this year were defined by near misses: three 2nd places but no wins and only a broken shoulder (in France) to show for his efforts. Still, he’s one of the best climbing sprinters in the game, with endurance and the light frame to nab victories and podium finishes in a wide variety of one day events. His team support will be limited, and he’ll be pushed to the edge by the difficulty of the race, but if he’s there, he’s got the engine.

The peloton will be full of riders trying to use the ascents to drop these four and their ilk (though really, if it’s a bigger group at the finish, it’s these riders pretty well ahead of everyone else in that ilk my mind, which is why I only give their four names before getting into the climbier types). Spain, Great Britain, Italy, Australia, Colombia, the Netherlands, and France all have stacked squads to try to force this result. The Spanish Armada will sure look imposing out on the course: Alejandro Valverde looks like their best option for a select group at the finish, but Daniel Moreno has been absolutely on fire in 2013 (winning La Fleche Wallone as well as two stages of the Vuelta, where he was also a top 10 finisher), showing an elite kick. Depending on which rider is still there and whom this team decides to support, if a small bunch makes it a drag race to the finish, these two have the form and the ability to be in the mix, and it’s hard to see a scenario where at least one of them isn’t in the top 10, or even on the podium. Joaquim Rodriguez is surely eying a late climb to make a move, and former Olympic Gold medalist Samuel Sanchez could also play a part. Luis Leon Sanchez will enjoy the circuit’s similarity to the Clasica San Sebastian. And then there is Alberto Contador, who could try to go for a long one, knowing that he won’t be able to outsprint his rivals at the line.

If he does, Tour de France winner Chris Froome would love a partner: he’s focused on this race ever since his dominant win in Paris, but he knows he’ll have to use his elite TTing and climbing abilities to get away from the pack if he wants a shot at the rainbow. He’ll have quite a team to back him: Wiggins, Cavendish, Geraint Thomas, and Ian Stannard will work hard to keep him out of the wind until he decides to make his move. I don’t know if the course or the elements favor him, and he doesn’t have the one-day race resume that the other contenders have, but he showed in July that he’s one of the best cyclists on the planet.

A Grand Tour star who will love the forecast is home favorite Vincenzo Nibali. Like Froome and Contador, Nibali knows he’ll need to drop Valverde and Co. if he wants to win, but he’s a strong descender and doesn’t mind a little rain, and he’ll be riding in front of a home crowd. He may have been disappointed with his second place at the Vuelta, but 1st and 2nd in two Grand Tours in the same year is a pretty phenomenal feat, and Nibali has the all-rounder package to contend. He also has a team stacked with alternative options: Filippo Pozzato’s GP Ouest France win and GP Montreal top 10 mark a resurgence for him, and if he does reach the finish with the leaders, he’ll be able to duke it out with any of the remaining sprinters. Diego Ulissi was champing at the bit in the Vuelta and took a stirring victory in the Tour de Pologne in late July. Rinaldo Nocentini will appreciate the Ardennes-style climbs, Giovanni Visconti and Luca Paolini both showed incredible power with hilly stage wins in the Giro, Michele Scarponi can climb with the best, and even Ivan Santaromita was mixing it up on numerous Vuelta stages.

Colombia’s stable of climbers will look to join forces with these European stars to animate things on the ascents. Henao and Betancur (who was the talk of the town a few weeks back before he showed up the Vuelta and bombed) will probably be riding in support of Tour phenom Nairo Quintana and Giro surprise star Rigoberto Uran, who is probably the team’s best bet given his explosive talent. He enjoyed his autumn visit to Italy last year (where he won Gran Piemonte and took 3rd in Lombardy) and he’s likely to make a dent again this year. Quintana will need to get away on the climbs, as he is not known for his drag-racing ability, but he was riding aggressively in the Tour of Britain and will have plenty of company trying to get away.

Australia’s Cadel Evans has a surprising sprint and a strong team; it’s been all about form for him this year, and it’s not clear what kind of form he’s on right now (he was in the top 20 in both Canadian races but didn’t factor for the win), but a few years back he won the Amstel Gold Race and top 5ed at LBL that weekend. And the year before? He won the World Championship Road Race. The former rainbow wearer can’t be counted out. His teammate Richie Porte will look to outclimb the bunch, so don’t be surprised to see a repeat of the Tour de France, with Froome, Porte, Contador, and Quintana out ahead alone.

France and the Netherlands both have a number of quick-finishing climber types who have strong single-day resumes. France’s Tommy Voeckler leads a squad filled with mountain-stage-winning types who will be very aggressive: Christophe Riblon, Arthur Vichot (French champ this year and 2nd in Quebec), Warren Barguil (Vuelta star), Romain Bardet and Anthony Roux are all explosive and capable on the climbs. Pinot is probably the best pure climber on the squad. There are so strong riders on the team that at least one is likely to be in the mix at the end, and the way Vichot and Barguil have been riding, I have my eye on them most of all. The Dutch squad will wait to see which of their stars, Mollema or Gesink, is in the best shape at the end of the day: recent Vuelta stage winner and former points classification winner Bauke Mollema is sneaky fast at the line, and Robert Gesink just won the Grand Prix Cycliste Quebec by outsprinting none other than Peter Sagan after a long day in the saddle. Tom Jelte Slagter can finish hard, too, and the endurance-filled talent behind them (Dumoulin especially, as well as Langeveld, Kelderman, and Weening) will give Dutch fans confidence. It’s very hard to say whether the team backs Mollema or Gesink if they’re both there in a group finish, but I imagine one of the two will be in the top 10.

Michal Kwiatkowski has been somewhat M.I.A. in WorldTour leaderboards since the Tour, but the parcours is perfect for him. His form is an unknown, but he did crash while in Canada, making it difficult to declare him unfit; if he’s on his game, he’ll be hard to beat at the line, and he shouldn’t struggle with the climbs. He also has a surprisingly large team behind him that includes strong climbers like Rafal Majka, Pryzslaw Niemiec and Bartosz Huzarski. I’m hard-pressed to tab him for the top 10 based on his slew of DNFs and anonymous finishes these past few months, but I can also see him winning the race.

Obviously I can’t give a full rundown of every national squad, but there are a few non-Sagan and Gilbert (tragically, Belgium only has 7 riders here) contenders on the less-staffed teams who merit mention as either potential uphill attackers or versatile fast finishers. Gilbert’s teammates Jan Bakelants and Greg Van Avermaet are both quick to the line, should they still be around if their leader go missing in the finale. I suppose after routinely leaving him out of my Vuelta stage previews until the final week, Chris Horner deserves a mention; he’s certainly one of the best climbers in the world right now. Tejay van Garderen is another strong climber with a lot of soloing talent for a long breakaway. Andrew Talansky seems to be a support rider after a long season, and Taylor Phinney might not like all the climbing, but it’s a strong team. Zdenek Stybar is another late season star on a smaller squad: he showed in the Eneco Tour and Vuelta that he’s got an all-rounder package to rival the best of the best, with the ability to go for a long one, to make it up the punchy climbs, and to win a sprint to the line. As a former world CX champ, he won’t be bothered by the rain, either.

Finally, two of my top 10 favorites come from teams with just four and three riders, respectively: Ireland’s Dan Martin, Portugal’s Rui Costa. Martin had a boatload of early season success, winning the Volta a Catalunya and then one of the sport’s biggest events, Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He was looking good at the Tour de France before he got sick, and he was looking good at the Vuelta before he crashed out; in a way, maybe the lack of high mountain mileage will be good for him. His one-day climber’s resume (in addition to LBL, he was 4th, and milliseconds away from 3rd, at La Fleche Wallonne this year, top 10 in both last year, and a podium finisher in Lombardy in 2011) shows the explosive talent that could vaunt him over a late climb or prove useful in a reduced drag race. He has a small team, but Nicolas Roche is one of the best climbers in the business and a very capable teammate, and Martin showed in the spring how effectively he feeds off teammates in a one-day showdown.

Rui Costa has an even smaller squad of backers, but he is such a constant fixture in late season circuit races that I see him as a top challenger here. He’s been a winner in Montreal and on the podium in Quebec and Ouest France. He is known as a climber, but he’s got a strong soloing ability and has shown time and time again a very impressive ability to charge for the line. His aggressive riding netted him a pair of wins in the Tour de France this year on the heels of a Tour de Suisse win. Like Kwiatkowski, Moreno, Marin, and Valverde, if the climbing stars distance the Boasson Hagens and Cancellaras but reel in any late moves from Froome and Contador, Costa will be a favorite to outsprint the GC types. But even if Sagan is still there, I can see Costa on the podium, and he’s got the soloing skills to jump into a move if he sees it going places, too.

Other smaller team potential contenders include tough sprinters like John Degenkolb and Thor Hushovd (obviously big favorites if they make it to the finish, but that’s probably too much to ask), Lars Petter Nordhaug, Daryl Impey, Alexandr Kolobnev, Jakob Fuglsang, Matti Breschel, Maxim Iglinksiy, and Tanel Kangert.

After weeks of preparation, the riders finally get there shot at the rainbow on Sunday, and with the parcours and the quality of the field, you can guarantee a ferocious battle for the victory.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Peter Sagan

Podium

Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert

Top 10

Fabian Cancellara, Rui Costa, Vincenzo Nibali, Daniel Martin, Daniel Moreno, Joaquim Rodriguez, Robert Gesink

-Dane Cash

Photos by Bruce Stokes and Michiel Jelijs.

September 28, 2013
UCI World Championship Individual Time Trial 2013 Preview

A World-class Race of Truth

After a year on Tony Martin’s back, the rainbow jersey of the time trialing world champ is up for grabs again in Florence. But what a year it’s been for the German, who won eight time trials across the stage races he’s taken on (including a win ahead of Chris Froome in the Mont St. Michel chrono in the Tour de France). Following so much success, Tony Martin will look defend his title, but competition will be fierce from a select few rivals: I see Martin as one of four riders with the potential to take the victory in 2013. The other three are Fabian Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins, and Taylor Phinney.

It’s close, but if I had to pick I’d favor Martin to repeat. He’s just shown an ability on another level this year, and this course suits him well: not much to speak of in the way of hills, just 50 kilometers of road for him to dominate with his otherworldly endurance. This weekend, he led Omega Pharma – Quick Step to a repeat world title in the TTT, and he’s had a year full of success. Really, the only chronos he’s lost have been prologue length or lumpy: most notably, Stage 11 in the Vuelta a Espana, which he lost to Fabian Cancellara by 37. It was a 38.8km affair with a categorized climb in the middle, which favored the Swiss star, and there will be no such complications in Florence.

Still, Cancellara is a four time world champ in this discipline coming off a two-Monument-winning year. He was on fire in the spring, and he rounded nicely back into form for his run-up to this race, winning the ITT in the Tour of Austria and, as has already been noted, in the Vuelta, where he also came close to a few non TT stage wins. He might prefer a hill or two (to put Martin and Phinney off their games), but he’s definitely got a lot of form right now.

Cancellara was smoked, however, in the recent Tour de Pologne time trial… by a resurgent Bradley Wiggins (Phinney took third in that event). Wiggins shook up his schedule this year to take on the Giro, where he put in a very strong ITT performance on stage 8. He probably would have won that stage had he not sprung a flat tire during his run; as it stood he was only 10 seconds behind the leader, Alex Dowsett. After withdrawing from the Giro, he went dark for a while, before showing up to dominate the ITT in Poland. It wasn’t a flat course, and Florence is, but the way Wiggins blew away the competition there inspires confidence in his ability right now, and he’s shown in his career that when he puts his mind to a goal, it’s hard to deny him. He comes into the World Champs having just won the Tour of Britain on the back of his ITT stage win.

Despite barely missing out on the rainbow jersey in last year’s WC ITT (he was a mere 6 seconds behind Martin) Taylor Phinney has little data to give us in terms of his TTing form: he’s only done three ITTs this year, and one of them he attempted while not-healthy (during the Giro, for which he was ultimately a DNF). He’s something of a wildcard, but the course suits him very well: the former Individual Pursuit World Champ is a big rider (1.96 meters, 82 kg) with a massive engine, and he thrives on flat, track-like courses. He knows this one well. I don’t see his 6th place in the short, not-flat Eneco Tour ITT or his 3rd place in the lumpy ITT in Poland as clear signs of being off form: his fantastic Tour de Pologne victory displayed just how good he is at soloing on a flat right now.

It’s hard to see past any of these four names for the gold, or even for the podium, but the other contenders include Italy’s Adriano Malori (3rd last year), his compatriot Marco Pinotti, the UK’s Alex Dowsett, last year’s U23 silver medalist Rohan Dennis, fellow Australian Richie Porte, former World Champ Bert Grabsch, Belarus’s Vasil Kiryienka, France’s Sylvain Chavanel (who won an Eneco Tour ITT in which Wiggins and Phinney were somewhat disappointing), Belgian Thomas De Gendt, and Jonathan Castroviejo of Spain.

Whoever nabs the rainbow jersey tomorrow will have defeated some serious talent on the way, and will deserve the 365 days of glory that come with the victory.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Tony Martin

Podium

Bradley Wiggins, Fabian Cancellara

Top 10

Taylor Phinney, Adriano Malori, Richie Porte, Vasil Kiryienka, Sylvain Chavanel, Rohan Dennis, Marco Pinotti

-Dane Cash

Photo by Goldene-Speichen.de.

September 25, 2013
UCI World Championship Team Time Trial 2013 Preview

Team Rainbows

Ostensibly, I preview every WorldTour race here at VeloHuman, and the TTT at the UCI World Champs in Florence is technically a WT race, so I’m putting out a quick write-up, though I’m going to keep it brief. The route is pretty straightforward. The course is 50.3 km from Montecatini Terme to Florence, and it isn’t hilly: team time trials are already perhaps the discipline in pro cycling least likely to offer surprise winners, and the World Champs course isn’t going to change that.

The biggest favorite is Omega Pharma – Quick Step, who won the event last year and bring another powerhouse team this year, led by current ITT world champ Tony Martin. Backed up by Sylvain Chavanel, Michal Kwiatkowski, Peter Velits, Niki Terpstra, and Kristoff Vandewalle, they are the squad to beat: no weak links here, and no steep ascents or nasty descents to throw them off their game. Main challengers like Sky, Orica-GreenEdge, and BMC will have their work cut out for them. Sky’s got a big team here as well, despite the absence of Bradley Wiggins. Sky and OGE both have lineups very similar to their well-performing Tour de France teams (in the Stage 4 TTT of the Tour de France, Orica-GreenEdge narrowly defeated OPQS by less than one second, and Sky was just moments behind). BMC, on the other hand, has Taylor Phinney (2nd in the ITT World Champs last year) leading the way. Just as Phinney was runner-up to Martin in the individual event in 2012, his team was runner-up to Martin’s in the team event, and by a very narrow margin (three seconds), too. They’ll be out for revenge.

Other contenders include Garmin-Sharp (a squad mixing wiley veterans and young up-and-comers like Andrew Talansky) and RadioShack Leopard (led by four time ITT champ Fabian Cancellara, and strong performers in the Vuelta team time trial). Behind this pair, the odds get much longer: Astana, Belkin, and Movistar each have solid teams here, but I don’t think they’ll be able to put up times like OPQS and Sky will. Saxo-Tinkoff and Lotto-Belisol might outperform expectations.

Overperforming and defeating Omega Pharma at their bread and butter will be a tall task. I think a few times might surprise, but the winner will come from a very select pool of challengers.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Omega Pharma – Quick Step

Podium

Sky, BMC

Top 10

Orica-GreenEdge, Belkin, Astana, Saxo-Tinkoff, Lotto-Belisol, RadioShack Leopard, Garmin-Sharp

-Dane Cash

Photo by Flowizm.

September 22, 2013
Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal 2013 Preview

WorldTouring in North America, Chapter 2

The WorldTour’s three most recent one-day winners: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, and now, Robert Gesink. One or two years ago, this set of winners might have seemed totally predictable, but in 2013? It’s as if all of these guys who have been flying under the radar decided to reenter the scene in grand style at the same time. Belkin has had a great week, with Bauke Mollema stealing a stage from the power sprinters at the Vuelta, and Robert Gesink outsprinting Peter Sagan himself in Quebec. As closely as the two are tied together, and as often as they share common riders in their leaderboards, GP Quebec is an important foreshadower for GP Montreal.

That race came down to a very reduced sprint with some marquee names, guys we expected to be right there, like Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet, and Rui Costa. Things pretty much went as expected, right up to the point where Robert Gesink (with Arthut Vichot not far behind) passed all those pre-race favorites for the victory. Obviously Gesink is a major talent (he won Montreal in 2010 and was 2nd at Quebec in 2012), but 1. his Palmares have been so lacking lately, and 2. his career resume hasn’t really shown any evidence of a high caliber sprinting ability: with a kilometer to go and Tom Jelte Slagter also with the lead group, I wouldn’t have even picked Gesink to be the highest placed rider from his own team, let alone in the whole race. But while Sagan and Van Avermaet seemed just too exhausted to keep up on the ascent to the line, Gesink powered ahead and took a commanding win. With a career that primarily features results in climber’s races, Gesink seemed like a better pick (albeit an outside one) to get involved in Montreal; if this is the kind of form he’s got right now, and if he’s suddenly realized that he has a heck of a sprint within him, he goes from a worthy-of-a-mention-as-a-past-winner pick to one of the favorites for the second of the Canadian WorldTour dates.

Like its sister race, the Grand Prix Cycliste Montreal has a profile that provides great opportunities for successful attacks on the final lap. Unlike its sister race, Montreal’s big climbs come earlier in the circuit (Côte Camilien-Houde, 1.8 km at 8%, and Côte de la Polytechnque, 0.78 km at 6&), and they’re followed by several kms of gentle descent, and the finish in Montreal, while uphill, is only a few hundreds meters at a few percent grade, rather than a long upward drag: in other words, the race favors attackers who can go from much further out, and it also is friendlier than Quebec was to any sprinters who beat the odds and manage to stay up front. Last year, Lars Petter Nordhaug (then of Team Sky, now of Belkin) made a move from several kilometers out. Rui Costa in 2011 and Robert Gesink in the inaugural edition in 2011 also made moves from several kilometers out.

Gesink’s sprint is what surprised everyone on Friday; we’ve always known he could climb and put in a sustained effort. It’s those skills that won him this race in 2010, and now that we know he’s got quite a kick, he’s got a great shot again here. But Sagan will be out to improve on his placing from Quebec, as will Greg Van Avermaet, Rui Costa, and up-and-comer Arthur Vichot, all of whom finished with the lead group not very far behind Gesink in Quebec. Costa won this thing two years ago and he’s my favorite rider to launch a successful long attack, but he’s also got the kick to outsprint a reduced group. FDJ’s Vichot has had a fine year, runner-up yesterday and French national champion not long ago; he was also in the mix in the finale at Quebec last year and like Costa, he’s got a varied skillset and could either make an early jump or hang with a small group. I like his chances. Sagan and Van Avermaet might find it harder to come across with the lead bunch or to launch a big attack early, as the higher altitude hills in Montreal are likely to break up the race on the final laps, but if they do, the finish suits them more than it did in Quebec. I’ll throw out some familiar names of real fastmen who will also appreciate the finish if they can just make it there at the head of the race: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, Giacomo Nizzolo, Matti Breschel, Matt Goss, and Luka Mezgec are the biggest ones for me. The way Degenkolb has been going, I think it’s a real possibility he is in the final group chasing down the final break, and Breschel was, of course, in the top 10 in Quebec on Friday.

Should the truer sprinters all be dropped, I’d imagine the danger men in the pack pursuing the last breakers will include: Tom-Jelte Slagter of Belkin, Fabian Wegmann of Garmin-Sharp, Jan Bakelants and Tony Gallopin of Radioshack, Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Jurgen Roelandts of Lotto Belisol, Bjorn Leukemans of Vacansoleil, Francesco Gavazzi, Simone Ponzi, and Borut Bozic of Astana, and Francisco Ventoso of Movistar.

But since this is a race with a pretty serious incline in the circuit that will tire out everyone in the field and will surely launch some bids for glory, perhaps the most important question will be: who launches the marquee attack as the race nears its finish? If it’s not one of the riders mentioned above, last year’s winner Lars Petter Nordhaug seems like a great place to start. Recent results have been lacking, though, so the top alternative choices include Pierrick Fedrigo (2nd behind Costa in 2011), Ryder Hesjedal (3rd in 2010), Niki Terpstra (who was off the front until the end on Friday, finishing 6th), Alexander Kolobnev, Simon Geschke, Enrico Gasparotto, Sylvain Chavanel, Simon Spilak, and Christophe Riblon and Cadel Evans, who led the chasers over the line behind Sagan at GP Quebec. OGE’s stable of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, Sebastian Langeveld, and Cameron Meyer and Euskaltel’s squad of climbers, like the Izagirre brothers, are also great bets to animate the race from a distance. Evans and Hesjedal seem the most motivated of the Grand Tour stars here, but any one of Froome, Contador, Porte, Schleck, Talansky and van Garderen might decide to go for a long one as well.

However it goes down, long distance attack or late catch and pass by a bunch, I think the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is going to end with many of the same names from Friday towards the front, riders who combine a strong kick with an aggressive style and a whole lot of endurance.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Peter Sagan

Podium

Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

Top 10

Greg Van Avermaet, Tom Jelte-Slagter, John Degenkolb, Arthur Vichot, Matti Breschel, Jurgen Roelandts, Niki Terpstra

-Dane Cash

Photo by O. Taillon.

September 15, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 21: Where We Stand After Nineteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 20-21

Day 21: Angliru Awaits

When the Vuelta organizers decided to put the Alto de L’Angliru on the penultimate stage, they were obviously hoping (against the odds) that the Tour of Spain would come down to an epic showdown on one of the sport’s most famous climbs. When Nibali’s Astana squad took a commanding early lead, it appeared that this race was all but wrapped up, but Christopher Horner has seemed to gain seconds on the favorite basically every time the road has gone up at the finish. Somehow, the 41 year old American closed the early gap, then lost time in the individual time trial, and now has closed the gap again. He and Nibali finished together with the group on Stage 17, which Bauke Mollema won with a brilliant long range sprint that caught some big fastmen by surprise. Horner crossed the line well ahead of the Italian on Stage 18, behind breakaway survivor Vasil Kiriyenka (who put in a massive solo effort that Sky will be proud of). Earlier today, Horner reclaimed the red jersey by just seconds when a small gap formed at the stage finish (behind the day’s winner, Joaquim Rodriguez, whose team was motivated enough to pull back a breakaway that everyone thoguht would succeed). In the past few days, he’s just been a better climber, plain and simple, and throughout this race he’s had the explosive flair to gain time at the line (an ability that has nabbed him two stage wins so far). Nibali, on the other hand, has appeared to lose a step in the past few days. In fact, even Rodriguez and Valverde have gained a little on the Giro winner: his once seemingly unassailable lead has totally crumbled. It all comes down to tomorrow, when the peloton takes on perhaps its most daunting challenge.

Stage 20: Aviles > Alto de L’Angliru | 142.2km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

The stage is short but brutal: 142.2 kilometers, but with a succession of climbs that get progressively harder and harder. A Category 3 is followed by a Cat. 2 right around the halfway point. Then the riders will take on the very steep Alto del Cordal, a Category 1 climb, whose summit is only 8.2 kilometers from the foot of the final ascent of the Vuelta, Alto de L’Angliru. It’s one of the most famous mountains in the sport, and one of the most demanding: 12.2 kilometers at an incredible 10.2%, grading out at a maximum of 23.5% not far from the top. Apart from a tiny blip where the road dips slighly down for a hundred meters or so a few kilometers up (a section that is followed by a stretch at 21%), there is really no respite anywhere on this monster until you get to the top. The roads are windy and narrow. And the riders will be taking this beast on after a hard, high-speed day up and over some serious climbs. It’s not for the faint of heart. The long, unrelenting drag does not make it easy to attack. It’s the sort of test that requires a massive tank: this is a mountain about which former pro Patrice Halgand said that “on the Angliru the guys go too pitifully for the climb to have any sporting interest. Even the winner goes up in slow motion. There’s no attacking. From front to rear, everyone just gets up as best he can.”

Nibali’s recent fading makes predicting this stage quite difficult. On the one hand, the stage favors Nibali’s skillset more than many of the shorter, more explosive finishes that we’ve seen so far, but on the other hand, the past few days don’t instill any confidence in Vincenzo Nibali’s ability to pull this one out. Bookmakers seem to be favoring all three of Horner, Rodriguez, and Valverde over him for the stage win. If I had to make a prediction (and I do, since this is a preview!) I do think it will come down to a field of the GC contenders and a select group of star climbers who stay with them rather than an early breakaway, but I also think that Nibali’s chances are being underrated. Sustained uphill effort is Nibali’s bread and butter. It’s what won him the Giro. He also has his elite squad of lieutenants on a day where the pace will be high, while Horner has lost two of his strongest teammates, Fabian Cancellara and Haimar Zubeldia. In other words, I won’t write Nibali off so easily. But I think Horner will be right there: he’s been unflappable so far and he’s passed every test he’s faced, even if this test is in a class of its own. I expect Rodriguez to make moves and I expect Valverde to try to counter, though Purito has looked really strong. I don’t see any of the rest of the top 10 finishing ahead of them. I do think that Igor Anton, Diego Ulissi, Rigoberto Uran, or Michele Scarponi could be allowed to go ahead for the stage win: Anton’s come very close here before, and Scarponi and Ulissi have looked good lately. Uran seems to be picking his battles, and Horner has shown the value of fresh legs in this race, wearing red in his first Grand Tour of the year while the rest of the GC favorites struggle to maintain their form across multiple three-week challenges. Mikel Nieve, Jose Herrada, Chris Anker Sorensen and Rafal Majka, and, of course, Warren Barguil could also try to strike ahead for glory with a legitimate shot at the victory, either from an early breakaway (probably less likely to win) or from the pack at the start of the climb.

This is the stage that will decide the Vuelta, so it’s a must-see. I never thought I’d be considering Chris Horner the favorite to win on L’Angliru and to therefore win the whole race, but here we are. Hopefully the rest of the contenders can keep it interesting.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Chris Horner | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Alejandro Valverde

Stage 21: Leganes > Madrid | 109.6km | Flat

After they climb one of the hardest mountains out there, the riders get to end their Vuelta with a less-than-110-kilometer parade to the finish in Madrid. It is, as they say, as flat as a pancake. Hard to see this ending any other way than with a bunch sprint.It may seem a bit less climactic than the previous day’s GC showdown, but there are some very quick men who have waited three weeks for this perfectly flat day guaranteed to go to a sprinter. Denied by late attackers on multiple days that seemed guaranteed to be sprint-fests, a few of the fastest ones still have yet to win a stage this race: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Maximiliano Richeze, and Tyler Farrar. They finished in that order behind a surprising Bauke Mollema on stage 17. Boasson Hagen has been hell-bent on winning a stage recently, jumping into break after break. Richeze has consistently looked like one of the fastest guys out there. And, of course, Tyler Farrar has actually won the final stage of the Vuelta before. Meanwhile, Michael Matthews, who looked so hot at the start of the race, and who won the 5th stage, and Gianni Meersman, who came in as perhaps the sprinter most favored to win at least one stage seemhave faded a bit, but Matthews showed awesome top end speed just two weeks ago, and Meersman has been close a bunch of times (and has taken big wins against some big names this year). Maybe Michael Morkov’s earlier win was a flash in the pan, but his track racing style will appreciate the lack of selective climbs on the final stage. Guys like Adrien Petit, Robert Wagner, Anthony Roux, Luca Paolini, Paul Voss, Grega Bole and Juan Antonio Flecha, Leigh Howard if OGE actually decides to support him instead of Matthews, and either member of the Argos duo of Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Nikias Arndt are the outsider picks, but I think it will be hard for an outsider pick to take it in the finale. Eddy Bos and Richeze are probably my favorites, and since I have to give the nod to someone, I’ll give it to the experienced, proven winner from Norway, though I think it’s a really close call here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 2. Maximiliano Richeze | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Michael Matthews

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mikel Ortega.

September 14, 2013