Tag: Predictions

2016 EuroEyes Cyclassics Preview

The race formerly known as the Vattenfall Cyclassics, known to most riders as simply “Hamburg,” is a rare opportunity for the purest of sprinters to nab a WorldTour-level one-day win. As such, it’s probably no surprise that the cream of the sprinting crop are in Hamburg this weekend to do battle in a showdown likely to provide an early indicator of who’s in form ahead of a sprinter-friendly worlds road race.

The Route

Notwithstanding a few yearly minor changes to the race distance, the main idea for the Cyclassics is always the same: ride around the Hamburg suburbs for 2.5 hours or so, then do a few loops on a somewhat challenging circuit headlined by the Waseberg climb, less than 1km but with an 8% gradient. That’s the case again this year.

Typically, there are a few attempts to escape the peloton as things near a conclusion, but it’s almost inevitable that the sprinters’ trains reel in the late moves to set up a high-speed showdown.

The Contenders

Hamburg may be a race that rewards the fastest of finishers, but it’s still a one-day race with a non-negligible climb in the finale. As such, the sprinters who don’t mind Classics-style racing tend to thrive.

André Greipel is the defending champion, and it’s hard to see anyone else as the top favorite heading into Sunday’s race. For pure speed when in peak form, Greipel is among the two best on the startlist. He’s also a proven winner who doesn’t mind one-day racing. The only question for Greipel is consistency—he does tend to disappear on occasion, so don’t be all that surprised if he’s not in the best position in the finale. Then again, don’t be surprised if he smokes everyone on the finishing straight either.

Alexander Kristoff is another former winner with a great shot. He’s not the very fastest rider in a drag race, but he more than makes up for it with Flanders-winning grit. Expect a strong performance from the three-time podium finisher.

John Degenkolb, the 2013 winner, is also fully capable of winning again, especially having shown strong form in the Arctic Race of Norway, where he claimed the points classification and a stage victory. If he’s really back to his best, he’ll be a dangerous contender at the finish, and like Kristoff, he shouldn’t have any trouble making it there even if the race is hectic late.

Marcel Kittel is the wildcard on the startlist. On peak form he’s the fastest man in the race, but he hasn’t been on peak form this year, and he’s also never been much for top-level one-days. I see him as a favorite, but not the favorite that his speed might otherwise dictate.

Arnaud Démare is yet a former winner with a shot, especially after he showed off just how strong he can be with his Monumental win in Sanremo this spring. Giacomo Nizzolo almost always contends (he’s a three-time podium finisher) and should almost certainly be there in the finale, though pulling off a win is always a tall order for the Italian. Danny Van Poppel, Nacer Bouhanni, Caleb Ewan, Sacha Modolo, and Tom Boonen are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: André Greipel
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb
Other Top Contenders: Marcel Kittel, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, Danny Van Poppel, Nacer Bouhanni, Caleb Ewan, Elia Viviani

Photo by Michael Behrens (CC).

August 21, 2016
2016 Vuelta a España: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Ourense › Baiona – 160.8km

After the TTT opener, the Vuelta continues with a stagehunter-friendly Stage 2. Given the less-than-challenging profile, it seems likely that the day could go to the sprinters, but a small late climb, even an uncategorized one, could inspire a few late aggressors.

Even if it does come down to a bunch kick, this is a remarkably difficult stage to predict—Grand Tour sprint stages aren’t often as wide open as this Vuelta’s will be, but without any marquee speedsters on the startlist, the door is open for normally-fringe contenders to make their mark.

Nikias Arndt is a good a bet as any in a mass sprint. He’s at least as fast in a pure sprint as anyone on the startlist. If it comes down to that, he’ll be tough to beat.

Gianni Meersman hasn’t shown quite the same level of speed recently as he did in a four-WorldTour-win 2013 season, but I like his chances for this stage with the late climb. He doesn’t mind a late climb. Even in a typical bunch sprint he’s a danger, but he’ll be all the more favored if the peloton is at all whittled down by the time the riders hit the finishing straight.

The same is true for Niccolo Bonifazio. The Trek rider runs hot and cold, but when he’s hot he can deliver big-time.

Kristian Sbaragli and Tyler Farrar are others to watch in a bunch sprint. Fabio Felline, Philippe Gilbert, Magnus Cort, Jean-Pierre Drucker, and Simon Gerrans are potential protagonists if things get a bit more interesting in the finale.

VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Nikias Arndt | 3. Niccolo Bonifazio

August 21, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Ourense › Parque Nacional Castrelo de Miño – 27.8km (TTT)

The Vuelta kicks off with a team time trial, and a surprisingly unpredictable one at that. Though there are several good TT teams in the race, none of them looks particularly dominant, leaving this battle against the clock open for the taking.

There are several corners to navigate on the parcours, but the 27.8km route is a flat one that will favor the big engines.

Team Sky is my prohibitive favorite, with the talent and the motivation to come out of this with an early advantage. Led by Chris Froome and Michal Kwiatkowski, Sky has a good – if not great – squad in Spain.

Movistar should perform well for similar reasons; they too have motivation and big engines, though a number of their strongest riders against the clock aren’t making the start. Still, they should be right up there in contention.

Etixx-QuickStep has a number of Classics riders on the roster who should be able to turn a high cadence for a half hour. That makes them dangerous. BMC is another contender, always strong against the clock, though their Vuelta lineup is not exactly the TTT world champion squad.

LottoNL-Jumbo is a great candidate to surprise. The Dutch squad doesn’t have quiet the reputation of the some of the other TTT contenders, but with Jos van Emden leading the way, the squad has a nice shot to nab the stage.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Team Sky | 2. Movistar | 3. Etixx-QuickStep

August 20, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016 Preview

The Vuelta may be seen as the third most prestigious of the three Grand Tours, but for several years running the race has delivered plenty of thrills and big names. This year should be no different. Plenty of top GC stars are making the start in Spain hungry to pick up a big victory before the season ends.

The Route

As Vuelta routes go, this year’s is relatively tame. There are mountaintop finishes, sure, but nothing quite so extreme as l’Angliru or the Andorra stage from 2015. Instead, the mountains are spread across multiple stages, with the middle of the race offering the most opportunities for GC action.

The race begins in Galicia and makes its way eastward along the northern coast of Spain until arriving in the Basque Country, taking advantage of the hilly terrain there along the way. As such, expect things to be a bit wetter than they often are in the Vuelta, at least in the first half of the race.

After a medium-distance stage 1 TTT, the GC battle should be mostly quiet (apart from a a few punchy days) until Stage 8, the first mountaintop finish. Climber-friendly stages 9 through 11 will keep things interesting (with a rest day after Stage 10).

The next two days of racing are for the stagehunters, but Stage 14 is probably the most challenging in the Vuelta, closing out with a 16.5km climb at 7.1%. Stage 15 is a tough one as well, with a Cat. 1 finale.

A sprinter-friendly Stage 16 brings the race into Catalonia and the eastern coast of Spain. A rest day follows, before a mountainous Stage 17 but then a less-than-challenging Stage 18.

Stage 19 will be a critical battleground, especially in a race without any marquee days of especially brutal climbs; it’s a 37km time trial, and a mostly flat one at that. The TT specialists with big engines will have a chance to make a big difference here before the GC finale in Stage 20. The penultimate day of racing may not have any particularly steep ascents, but four Cat. 2s leading into a 21 kilometers of climbing to the finish (with a 5.9% gradient) won’t be a walk in the park.

The race finishes in Madrid with a day that should suit the sprinters.

The General Classification Contenders

The Vuelta has been rather hard to predict in recent years, and it looks like a tough one to call this year as well. There’s plenty of talent on the startlist, and unclear form and motivation among the top names in the race.

Chris Froome is the best GC rider in the world right now, and he’s been after a Vuelta win for a long time. The form is a question mark, but given his ability, I have a hard time seeing anyone else as the favorite for this race. He’s got the all-round skillset to dominate if he’s feeling strong, and even if he’s not at 100% he’ll still be hard to beat.

Alberto Contador is also a well-rounded rider who should thrive on this parcours. He also has the advantage of being fresher than most of the other top contenders, who are coming from the Tour de France. That has proven to be a critical factor in recent Vuelta victories, and it shouldn’t be underestimated this year.

It’s hard to say which of Movistar’s dynamic duo of Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana will prove strongest in Spain. Quintana may be the young, rising GC star, but Valverde looked just as strong at the Tour, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Quintana lined up in support of Valverde at the Vuelta. That said, I think Quintana is more capable of actually winning the race, if he can find some form. He is unquestionably better at peak form than Valverde is.

Giro runner-up Esteban Chaves took a big step up this season. A second top-notch Grand Tour ride will be a tall order, especially given the flat TT in the final week, but he’s a contender for sure. So too is Steven Kruijswijk. He’s a bit of a wildcard after a surprising Giro, but if he rides like he did in Italy, he could win the Vuelta.

Louis Meintjes, Miguel Ángel López, Robert Gesink, Samuel Sánchez, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, and Pierre Rolland are others to watch in the battle for the red jersey.

The Stagehunters

There are very few top-shelf sprinters making the Vuelta start. That means it’s up to the likes of Kristian Sbaragli, Nikias Arndt, Gianni Meersman, and Tyler Farrar to battle for wins on the flat stages.

Despite the absence of sprinters, there are plenty of punchy types in Spain who will appreciate the many intermediate stages. Philippe Gilbert, Simon Gerrans, and Fabio Felline are riders to watch on the bumpier days.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Race Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana
Other Top Contenders: Esteban Chaves, Alejandro Valverde, Steven Kruijswijk, Andrew Talansky, Miguel Ángel López, Samuel Sánchez, Tejay van Garderen

Photo by Pedro Semitiel (CC).

August 20, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Vuelta a España 2016, Part I

Episode 52: Vuelta a España 2016 Show, Part I

The Recon Ride looks ahead to the Vuelta a España, which has drawn some of the biggest names in the pro peloton to Spain for one last shot at Grand Tour glory.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano dive into the Vuelta’s route, startlist, and storylines, and Trek-Segafredo’s Kiel Reijnen weighs in on what’s it like to be gearing up for a first grand tour appearance.

Photo by Paco Rubio Ordás (CC).

August 18, 2016
Clásica de San Sebastián 2016 Preview

The cycling season may be over for casual fans, but this weekend’s Clásica de San Sebastián proves there’s plenty of good bike racing still watch this year. The one-day trek on the undulating roads of the Basque Country tends to be pretty exciting, though hopefully this year’s edition will eschew the whole motorcycle-running-into-the-potential-race-winner thing.

The Route

The race is 220.2km long with six “categorized” climbs. The first is just an appetizer to possibly spring a long-range break. Then comes a two-climb circuit that the peloton will traverse twice (for a total of four climbs). The first ascent is the Jaizkibel, basically a small mountain, and then the short but steep Arkale. After two trips up and over both comes the final climb, the Tontorra, also short and steep but harder than the Arkale. From the top, it’s just 8km to the finish, most of it downhill.

The Contenders

On such a hilly parcours, the climbers and punchy classics specialists reign supreme—though the great thing about this race is that both have a shot at winning. Last year was a good example of this: winner Adam Yates is a Grand Tour-type climber, but the rider who probably would have won without moto interference, Greg Van Avermaet, is a Flemish classics star.

To recap, climbing legs and endurance for a tough day on the bike are both key. Having a finishing kick is important too, if you can’t drop everyone before the flat run-in to the line.

Alejandro Valverde is probably the top favorite in a very open field. He’s won before, he’s in good form, and the race suits him perfectly, with a profile hard enough to whittle things down and a finish that allows him to put his descending skills and sprint on display.

BMC brings two riders with excellent prospects. Greg Van Avermaet will probably be itching for revenge. I was actually surprised that he did so well last year (up until getting knocked out of the race) on such a hilly course, but if he could do it then, he can probably do it now. Past winner Philippe Gilbert is another terrific option if the form is there—though that’s a question mark.

Etixx has Dan Martin, who loves this sort of race, but he’s never done well in San Sebastián for whatever reason. Maybe that changes this year, with Rio on the horizon.

Katusha’s Joaquím Rodríguez is definitely a rider to watch. His punchy climbing legs are still among the best in the peloton, even as he nears retirement. Ilnur Zakarin is another option for the squad.

Adam Yates could certainly feature again, though last year’s win was a bit unconventional for me to be that confident in him. His brother Simon Yates and Michael Albasini are other options for the team.

2013 winner Tony Gallopin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Mikel Landa, Alberto Contador, Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, Diego Ulissi, Jarlinson Pantano, and Tim Wellens are other strong candidates for success Saturday.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Joaquím Rodríguez, Greg Van Avermaet
Other Top Contenders: Philippe Gilbert, Dan Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Diego Ulissi

July 30, 2016