Episode 49: Tour de France 2016 Show, Part III
The Recon Ride breaks down the last five stages of the 2016 Tour de France, which should provide plenty of action to close out the year’s biggest race.
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Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take an in-depth look at where we stand after two weeks of Tour racing, and make a few predictions about how things will play out in the final few stages.
Photo by Ian Grandjean (CC).
The final stage before the Tour’s second rest day has a deceptively simple profile that looks like a golden opportunity for the sprinters, but a few factors could complicate things. Sure, there’s only one categorized climb on the menu and it’s a Cat. 4 that probably shouldn’t have been categorized at all, but the distance marks this as one of the longer stages in the race, and it comes after a tough day of climbing. With a rest day on tap for Tuesday, it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility that the bunch decides to take it slow—they’ve done a fair bit of that this year. That opens the door for a break.
And then there’s the finish. There are two uphill sections inside the last 3km that could have a serious impact on the finale, particularly the second stretch of 600 meters at 6.5%. The road flattens out for the last kilometer, but the lighter guys might have already won the positioning battle by that point if this comes down to a sprint.
With those things in mind, I’d say Peter Sagan is my favorite for the stage because of his ability to win from the break, in a messy finale, or even a straight up bunch kick with all the big names. This is a good chance for Sagan to nab his third win of this year’s Tour.
Alexander Kristoff is another strong option—he probably won’t try for the break, but the distance shouldn’t bother him and he’s looked better and better as the race goes on. The same could be said for John Degenkolb.
Bryan Coquard will love the finale, and will be itching for another shot at a stage win after narrowly missing out last week. So too will Michael Matthews, who thrives on gradients like these, and Greg Van Avermaet, who could find this hard enough to get into the mix.
Then there’s the big three of Marcel Kittel, André Greipel, and Mark Cavendish. I think Cavendish has proven that he has the clear edge, so I’d pick him to win if all the top names are there, but it’s close.
Don’t discount a long-range winner either. Watch out for Thomas De Gendt, Tommy Voeckler, Fabian Cancellara, Michael Albasini, Tony Gallopin, and Edvald Boasson Hagen as potential breakaway winners.
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alexander Kristoff | 3. Mark Cavendish
Sunday’s stage has the topography to set up an interesting day of racing. With two Cat. 1s and an HC climb among the six categorized climbs on the menu, Stage 15 will provide the climbers with ample opportunities to separate themselves from the pack and fight for stage and GC glory. The big question? Will those fights be one in the same, or will we have a battle up the road for the stage and a battle in the bunch for GC time?
I’m leaning towards a breakaway being favored to win this stage. There’s just too much up-and-down for the peloton to have an easy time controlling the race, and with a downhill run-in to a flat finish, the yellow jersey hopefuls probably won’t go as full gas in the last 30km as they might for a mountain finish. Neither scenario would be a surprise, but for me, the breakers have the preliminary edge.
Rafal Majka stands out on the long list of breakaway candidates as a potential protagonist. He is good at getting into moves, and even better at executing when there are mountains involved. He’s probably the strongest rider for this stage that isn’t in GC contention right now.
Vincenzo Nibali is another great name for Stage 15, given all the descending on the profile. The stage suits him perfectly, assuming he has the form to stay up front. Rui Costa will like the look of the parcours too.
Thomas De Gendt, Pierre Rolland, Tom Dumoulin, Jarlinson Pantano, Ilnur Zakarin, and Dani Navarro are others who could succeed as long-range attackers in Stage 15.
Should the peloton contest the stage, look to the faster finishers as top favorites. Sure, Chris Froome or Nairo Quintana could try to solo away on the last two climbs but it will be a tall order. Alejandro Valverde and Bauke Mollema are probably better suited to the flat finale.
1. Rafal Majka | 2. Rui Costa | 3. Alejandro Valverde
On the heels of two decisive days for the General Classification comes a stage set for the sprinters. There are several small climbs in the profile, but only three of them are categorized, and they’re Cat. 4s at that. Plus, the final 50km are flat. It will take a bungling by the sprinter’s teams to let this stage get away.
I don’t have too many new things to say about the sprinting matchup, which, for me, always comes down to a three-way contest. Mark Cavendish has proven the most successful so far in this race. Marcel Kittel has the speed to beat anyone, and André Greipel throughout his career has shown a tendency to have one or two very impressive stages in his legs per grand tour.
I’ll go with Cav slightly ahead of Kittel here after two tough stages. He’s probably a bit stronger in a messy sprint. I’m not sure that the peloton will be particularly orderly given the last two days of racing and that probably favors Cav. It also disfavors Greipel, for that matter.
Beyond the big three it’s the usual suspects as fringe contenders: Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff, Sam Bennett, and Dylan Groenewegen are riders to watch.
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. André Greipel
After a bizarre Mont Ventoux thriller, I’m expecting something a bit more straightforward Friday in this Tour’s first of two time trial stages.
The 37.5km route is not overly difficult. The two main challenges come at the start and at the end of the day. The road angles upward from the get-go in the range of 5% for 7km. Then things are quite flat before a high-speed, not-that-technical downhill at around 24km. After that, it’s another flat stretch and then a final ascent to the line that starts off steep for a brief moment before easing up.
I see this as a stage for the big engines, and there are plenty in attendance—though for the first time in a long time, there is no clear-cut favorite for a traditional time trial at the Tour.
For me there are as many as six riders who could potentially win the chrono. I’ll start with my (very) prohibitive favorite, Tony Martin. He hasn’t been the dominant TT specialist of old recently, but he also hasn’t had many opportunities to time trial over 20km this season, except in the German nationals, which he won. On this big stage I do expect him to shine. The course suits him well.
Tom Dumoulin is the other rider I put atop my group of six potential winners. Like Martin, he excels in long time trials, and he doesn’t mind a few hills thrown in. He’s obviously on terrific form (his Stage 9 win proved that) so another victory would be no surprise.
Rohan Dennis and Fabian Cancellara should be in the mix as well. It’s been a bit of a quiet Tour for both riders thus far, but they both have the talent to win.
Chris Froome and Richie Porte have not had quiet Tours. Both could be tired from climbing Ventoux at full speed Thursday, but I still think the stage win is a possibility. Froome is being tipped by many for the stage—I personally think Porte is even better in the TT these days, as it’s been a very long time since Froome did much against the clock in a big race, but it’s impossible to know just how Porte is feeling after the crash in Stage 12. He didn’t look great at the finish. If he’s not too hindered by lingering injuries, Porte could win the TT.
Outsiders for the stage win include Vasil Kiryienka, Ion Izagirre, Tejay van Garderen, and Thibaut Pinot.
1. Tony Martin | 2. Tom Dumoulin | 3. Chris Froome
Thursday’s stage was supposed to be the day the GC contenders really clashed for the first time in this Tour, but windy weather in France has forced the organizers to shorten the stage—what was originally set to be a finish atop Mont Ventoux is now a finish 6km earlier at the Chalet Reynard. Given Ventoux’s odd geographic situation, far from any other serious climbs and therefore the only really hard ascent on the profile, that reduces the impact the stage will probably have.
Stage 12 will be still be a big challenge, however, as the now 14km finishing climb is still plenty steep. Plus, I think the racers will be starting to feel a need to pressure Chris Froome, who seems to pick up time every day. And by “the racers,” I mostly mean Nairo Quintana. There’s a chance this stage comes down to long-range attacker, but I think the Froome vs. Quintana showdown will be the main even Thursday.
I’m going to give Froome the slight edge. He’s beaten Quintana here before, and I’ve seen little so far this race to suggest he can’t do it again, though it certainly wouldn’t be a big surprise if Quintana were to nab the day.
I do expect attacks from the likes of Richie Porte and Romain Bardet to garner the attention of their rivals, which could make it hard to get away, but they’ll have a shot. Fabio Aru and Joaquím Rodríguez might get a bit of breathing room, making them dangerous. Personally, I’ll be watching to Dan Martin and Adam Yates to see if they can really hack it on a climb like this. Yellow is a real possibility for either of them if Froome is too focused on Quintana to chase.
There’s also a decent chance of a breakaway winner in Stage 12. Rafal Majka would be my top favorite there, with Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Vincenzo Nibali, Steve Cummings, and Thomas De Gendt as other options.
1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Rafal Majka