Tag: Preview

Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Muggió › Pinerolo – 240km

The 18th stage of the Giro has an “in-betweener” sort of profile that could go a few different ways. Everything will come down to the day’s lone categorized challenge, the Cat. 2 Pramartino climb. 4.65 kilometers at 10.5%, it is absolutely hard enough to break up the general classification. Alternatively, we could see an armistice among the overall contenders while the punchy stage hunters jump clear of the bunch. Or maybe all the attackers will be reeled in before the finish, leading to a reduced sprint. Or we could see an early break take the stage.

I’m inclined to think this comes down to the peloton, especially since one team with a GC contender happens to have the best overall candidate for the win—that would, of course, be Movistar and Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard can win with an attack on the climb or in a sprint, and he’s looking strong again after a bad day in the mountains last week.

Diego Ulissi is the other top name for this stage, and he brings another option to the table: the breakaway win. Like Valverde, he’s got the punch to thrive here, though he’s maybe a bit less likely to thrive on the climb.

The list of riders who could win this from the break includes: Tim Wellens (who I would have named as my pick before Ulissi and Valverde rode so well in Stage 16), Nicolas Roche, Giovanni Visconti, Gianluca Brambilla, Moreno Moser, and Sonny Colbrelli.

It’d be pretty surprising to see any of the GC contenders not named Alejandro Valverde crossing the line first in this stage, but a long-range attack from Esteban Chaves or Vincenzo Nibali, or even from the impressive race leader Steven Kruijswijk, would not be out of the question.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Tim Wellens

May 26, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Molveno › Cassano D’Adda – 196km

The Giro’s 17th stage looks like a perfect one for the sprinters. After a Cat. 4 climb midway through the day, there are almost 100 kilometers of gently downhill or flat roads. If this were the first stage of the race, there would be no question about the outcome—however it’s not the first week.

André Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Arnaud Démare, Elia Viviani, and Caleb have all abandoned the Giro, leaving very few quick men left to challenge for the stage. On the one hand, Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo are probably happy to have reduced competition. On the other hand, that leaves just Trek and Lampre to do the work in the bunch to chase down the early break.

Should they be able to keep this under control, I like Nizzolo’s chances. It’s a tricky sprint with some corners, and Nizzolo has looked good so far in the race. Modolo is a strong contender as well, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all for him to best Nizzolo, as he’s already done is several times in his career—including twice in last year’s race.

It’d be a surprise for any other sprinter to win here, but outsiders include Matteo Trentin, Alexander Porsev, Ramunas Navardauskas, Heinrich Haussler, and Kristian Sbaragli.

It’s anyone’s guess who would win this from a breakaway, as an early escape on this type of stage is as much a question of chance as anything. Daniel Oss, Adam Hansen, JJ Rojas, Stefan Küng, and Lars Bak are among the potential protagonists for a long-range victory.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Matteo Trentin

May 25, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Bressanone › Andalo – 132km

The Giro peloton gets back to racing after a much-needed day off with a stage that could see more gaps on GC—but will likely be more of a breakaway battleground than anything.

The climbs aren’t easy, and the first two in particular seem to be rated rather modestly. The first climb has an uphill run-up—all told, the riders will be ascending for the better part of 20km at an average gradient of over 5%. That’s pretty hard for a Cat. 2. The next climb is also given a rating that might have riders underestimating it. More than 10km at over 7%, it’s enough to spur attacks.

All that said, the stage ends with a Cat. 3 that flattens out at the top, which could have the overall contenders hesitant about setting their teams to work. At least in terms of the stage battle, I think the early escapees will have good chance at the win.

That makes predicting Stage 16 quite hard, but I’ll toss a few names out there. Mikel Nieve is one—he’s a great climber with freedom to hunt stage wins, and that’s already netted him one victory in this race. His Sky teammate David López could be in the mix as well.

Darwin Atapuma and Alessandro De Marchi make a nice duo of potential breakers for BMC. Atapuma looks great right now.

Giovanni Visconti would be a terrific pick for this stage, but it could be all hands on deck for Valverde at Movistar right now. If he does get into the breakaway, however, he’s got a great chance.

Tim Wellens and Diego Ulissi are both excellent candidates for the stage win because they could conceivably win this from the break or the peloton. The same is true of Gianluca Brambilla.

Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favorite if this does come down to the bunch, given his speedy finishing kick. Esteban Chaves, Vincenzo Nibali, and Steven Kruijswijk are other potential winners, though it will take a pretty strong attack to make that happen with this finale.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Mikel Nieve | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 24, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Giro d’Italia 2016, Part III

Episode 44: Giro d’Italia 2016 Show, Part III

Just six stages remain in the 2016 Giro d’Italia. The Recon Ride takes a look at where the race stands and what to expect as things near a conclusion in Italy.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano discuss the many surprises that this Giro d’Italia has delivered so far and try to predict what will go down in the final week of the race.

Photo by Sean Rowe (CC).

May 23, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Castelrotto › Alpe di Siusi – 10.85km (ITT)

Just in case Stage 14 was not decisive enough for you, Giro organizers planned a critical mountain time trial for the day after the queen stage.

10.85km from start to finish, the stage has an average gradient of a little over 7.2% all told, though the hard climbing only starts after 1.8km. From there it’s pretty steady the rest of the way up.

Sunday’s stage is all about who can generate the most watts per kilogram at this point in the race, following an extremely difficult Saturday. A few days ago I thought this would be a pretty straightforward stage to predict, but given the way things played out in Stage 14, I’m not so sure now.

Vincenzo Nibali is a cautious favorite pick. At peak form, Nibali would be the clear top contender—but he looked to be just a bit off his best Saturday. I still think he combines TT ability with climbing legs better than anyone else on the startlist, but it could be closer than expected.

Steven Kruijswijk has forced himself into the conversation here. He doesn’t get a lot of credit as a time trialist, but he was a very impressive 5th in last year’s 14th stage of the Giro. Combined with the way he’s been going uphill, he’s a real contender for the stage win here.

So is Esteban Chaves. TTs aren’t really his thing but he’s not the worst rider against the clock, and it shouldn’t matter too much with the gradient of this climb. Chaves is flying in this Giro.

Then there’s Alejandro Valverde. A few days ago I would have thought he’d be in with a shot at the win here but he really struggled in Stage 14. On the other hand, one thing that makes a guy like Valverde a perennial GC contender is his ability to deliver consistently through three weeks. I’m not counting him out after one bad day.

Ilnur Zakarin and Rafal Majka both have a chance on this stage. Majka in particular has done very well in Giro mountain time trials in the past. Rigoberto Urán, Andrey Amador, Bob Jungels, and Primoz Roglic are others who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Steven Kruijswijk | 3. Esteban Chaves

May 22, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Palmanova › Cividale del Friuli › 170km

Stage 13 is a tough one, a day that should shake up the GC a bit even if the finale is flat. The double pairing of Cat. 1 and Cat. 2 climbs probably won’t win anyone the Giro, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see major selection going over the last two ascents.

With two critically important, challenging stages to follow Stage 13, there is a chance the GC team will keep the powder dry Friday, which would give the breakaway a real shot on this profile. I’d say it’s about 50/50, but if the stage does come down to the GC contenders, I see one rider as the clear favorite: Alejandro Valverde. The versatile Spaniard should be in the mix at the head of affairs in the finale, getting into the wheels of his rivals, and if he’s in the lead group battling for the stage win, it’s hard to see anyone beating him in a sprint.

Vincenzo Nibali, with his excellent descending skills, and Rigoberto Urán, surprisingly quick in a flat finish, are other GC names to watch.

Diego Ulissi, Tim Wellens, and Alessandro De Marchi headline the list of riders whose options for victory include a long-range move. We haven’t seen that much from De Marchi yet, but in peak form I like him better for this stage than even Ulissi or Wellens.

Damiano Cunego, Stefano Pirazzi, Carlos Betancur, and perhaps even Stage 10 winner Giulio Ciccone are others on the list of candidates for long-distance success.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Tim Wellens | 3. Diego Ulissi

May 20, 2016